Sport Centre

MELBOURNE CUP PREVIEW 2010

2010-10-31T21:15:00.001-07:00

EXTENSIVE CUP PREVIEW FOR 2010

I will go through each horse in the cup field for tomorrow with some pros and cons about their chances and then ultimately I'll give my thoughts and tips at the end.

1. Shocking

Form: Been solid without luck for much of the campaign. Was 2nd in the Turnbull and ran a slashing last couple of hundred, just had no room for much of the straight. Same story in the Caulfield Cup when he flashed home for 4th.
Wasn't quite as sharp in the Mackinnon but tomorrow has always been his grand final.

Pros: Won the race last year, will definitely get the trip, and whilst his spring says only one win, he has shown nothing to indicate he won't be flying home strongly at the end and given the trip he could definitely swamp over the top of them.

Cons: Has drawn the outside barrier and has to carry a whopping 6kg's more then he did last year. He will also race against probably a slightly better field. So he has a few factors working against him in this one which will make life tough, but he always tends to defy what we expect.
Won from 22 last year, so 24 is not a huge backward step and a couple of possible scratchings might bring him in again to 21 or 22.

Strong horse a year older so maybe the weight isn't a huge issue.

Overall: Will need to run superbly and do it all right to swamp the likes of SYT on the straight but a previous winner with great turn of speed so he can definitely win it.
But I might take him on I reckon, few things against him in this one. Risky, but I'm leaving him alone.

2. Campanologist -

The flag ship for the unlucky Godolphin stable this year and could well do a crime scene from last year and scare the hell out of them.
They are yet to win this race despite numerous placings and whilst he may lack the class to get the job done overall, he might be a first four contender.

Pros: Has won 2 Group One's up to 2400, yet to win a major at this distance but can run it.
Barrier 19 shouldn't hurt him that much and has been timed to peak here after a much travelled campaign.

Cons: Is a bit inconsistent and temperamental (hope I spelt that correctly), best is very good, but can fluctuate. Although this most recent campaign has been fairly consistent. (Hasn't finished outside first 4 in last 6 starts).
Hasn't beaten quality overseas, but they come here because this is the best race, can it beat Shocking, So You Think, the gutsy Zipping etc ? Maybe, but I'm not convinced.

Overall: Genuine stayer with ability, don't think it will win, but first four or place roughie. Worth thinking about him.

3. So You Think

Form: Could not be better. Has won 5 starts in a row this campaign, four of those group ones and seems to do a little bit better each run, matures and adapts to conditions a little better every time. Cox Plate win was far to easy and then produced probably the best run of his career last Saturday to demolish a pretty good Mackinnon field.

Pros: Has answered every challenge put at him so far, and whilst this is a new benchmark again he has given every indication he can deal with it.
Unlike the Cox Plate he was pulling away in the Mackinnon and the doubts generated about his ability to stay that came out of the Plate would have dissipated a fair bit the other day.
Has amazing class and despite his occasionally flighty pre race motions, he does settle down well in his races.

Cons: Yet to run at 3200, in fact yet to run beyond 2040 so whilst his pedigree suggests he can do it, and his make up, you have to see it first before your convinced.
Also he will have a huge field to contend with, bit more congestion etc.
History - Only Phar Lap has won 2 Cox Plates and a Melbourne Cup, and only Phar Lap has won the Plate the Mackinnon and the Cup in 11 days so that's what he is being measured against. Many have failed at this task, can he succeed?

Overall: Yes he can. He is that good. Clearly the best horse in the race and if he relaxes early, doesn't encounter severe misfortune and can stay the trip. I don't think he can lose.
But in Melbourne Cups, anything can happen, and plenty has happened.

4. Zipping

FORM: Won the only two group ones of his long career this year and they were good races too (Australia Cup and Turnbull).
Evergreen horse who just fights and fights and fights.

PROS: Can stay, has proven that. Is in probably career best form as well.
We have seen him run well in this race in the past (back to back fourths in 2006 and 2007).
Remarkably ran in his first cup before So You Think was even foaled.
His second in the Cox Plate was a slashing run and he will guts it out to the end. In any other era who knows. This horse may have won a Melbourne Cup and a Cox Plate.

CONS: No 9 year old has ever won a Melbourne Cup, but he is a special horse.
Is as brave as they come, but may lack the genuine class to beat them all.

OVERALL: Absolute top 6 moral. Huge first four chance.

5. Illustrious Blue

Form: Been solid in lead up races in the UK. Has won at or around the distance a couple of times against slightly lesser company.
Will carry less weight then he has in a couple of years so will enjoy that.

Pros: Always good to look for horses you know can stay the trip. He can.
Low weights, slightly damp track they both work in his favour as well.

Cons: Has never raced in Australia. I dare say no- one has ever won a Melbourne Cup without racing in this country first. Will also face better oppositin.

Overall: Genuine smokey for a place. Bit of an unknown commodity as we have never seen him. But they aren't mucking around with him.

6. Mr Medici

FORM: Ran a tidy 6th in the Caulfield Cup and has solid form on the wet tracks. Yet to run at this distance though but been building ok.

PROS: Handles the weather and heavy track quite well. Has good solid overseas form and should improve a touch from Caulfield Cup run as it looked to have a bit in the tank.

Cons: Never run beyond 2400, and will face company that I think is at least as good as he is with maybe better credentials at distance.

Good jockey on board though and will be smart throughout.

OVERALL: Would need luck, probably look elsewhere.

7. Shoot out

FORM: Has been as solid as they come without winning. 4 thirds and 3 fourths in past seven starts. Great Cox plate run, very good at the weekend as well.

PROS: Doesn't do anything wrong when he races. The way he has finished each race this spring makes him look like a genuine stayer.
I have very little doubt he'll get the journey. Has a lot of class and speed and has raced competently against this company.

CONS: Sometimes I think he lacks the genuine grit to push past a horse who wants to fight him. Zipping for example has dug in twice against him and held him off. He needs to be able to push hard when the going is tough.

OVERALL: Consider him each way.

8. Americain

FORM: Cracking Geelong Cup win a while back when he didn't get a good run until very late. Beat an exceptional field that day and the race has form in terms of Cup lead ups.

PROS: Has won four on the trot, trackingly similar to Bauer two years ago. Has won twice back in France over 3000 metres and has taken to Aussie conditions with aplomb.
Carrying just 54 and a half KG's and has drawn well.

CONS: Will be the best quailty he has ever raced against in his career. And still just his second start in Australia.

OVERALL: Potential to be a major player. Consider him each way

9. Tokai Trick

FORM: Ran 13th in the Caulfield Cup but watching the race again he didn't go ridiculously hard.
Has won four times beyond 3000 and as long as 4000 back in Japan.

PROS: The Japanese horses famously smashed this race apart in 2006 and their staying races compare very very favourably with ours. He has genuine staying quality and should improve on that Caulfield Cup run in the slush.

CONS: At the wrong end of his career possibly. Again he'd have to be the first 9 year old to win, and his Aussie form is unconvincing.

OVERALL: Seeing the Japanese in the race again makes you look twice at him that's for sure, but not this time for mine.

10. Buccelati

FORM: Hasn't done much in Australia from 5 starts this campaign. Ran a solid 7th finishing ok in the Turnbull. Has won at distance up to Group 3 level.

PROS: Can run the trip, but hard to find a heck of a lot else for him. Pretty tough horse who will compete though.

CONS: Lacks a bit of genuine class and his preparation would suggest he should struggle. Finished at least 18 lengths behind Descerado in the Caulfield Cup and I doubt he can make that up in similar conditions.

OVERALL: Leave alone

11. Descerado

FORM: Excellent few weeks for the Gai Waterhouse horse. Couldn't have been more impressive in his Caulfield Cup win and ran a very good second to the superstar So You Think in the Mackinnon.

PROS: Will enjoy the extra distance, will enjoy the weather and he will also have little competition at the front. He likes to lead and there aren't any other obvious front runners to set him an uncomfortable tempo.
Barrier is near perfect too.

CONS: Was no match at all for SYT at the end of the Mackinnon so that is a worry. Aside from that not to many issues, although is yet to win beyond 2400.

OVERALL: One of the spring's form horses without a doubt. Can win at a pinch, and should be in the first half dozen.

12. Harris Tweed

FORM: Ran second in the Caulfield Cup to Descerado and was very solid. Has won at 2500 distance at Flemington this campaign as well.

PROS: Very good run in the Caulfield Cup, and also one of a few that likes the weather and track conditions he is likely to face.
Looks like he should get the trip as well as he ran a very tidy 5th in the Melbourne Cup last year.

CONS: Had a small bout of Colic last week which no doubt will knock him around. Key is recovery as his form was fine. Needs to maintain conditioning.

OVERALL: Top form in this race and recently. Most definitely in the mix.

13. Manighar

FORM: Has been challenging of late without winning. 3 5th's and 2 seconds in past five races.
Was good in the Caulfield Cup and has nice staying form back home.

PROS: Has won twice at 3200 in France, was good in the Caulfield Cup and you guessed it.....also doesn'd mind the wet ground.

CONS: Has lost to a number of these horses at or around this distance. Gutsy, might lack a bit of class but then again they have timed their run well in the past the Cumani's and maybe they have again.

OVERALL: I like him, but a few better ones in this race. Take him on maybe.

14. Master O'Reilly

FORM: Hasn't won since his 2007 Caulfield Cup triumph but has been solid in the majors since. Has run 4th in each of the last two Melbourne Cups. Was poor at Moonee Valley a week or so ago but you can possibly right that off.

PROS: Grand campaigner who has good form in this race and good form in the majors over the journey.
Likes to run on from the back and leaves himself a lot to do, but over this distance could be dangerous again.

CONS: Not as sharp as he was say a year ago and also had a bout of Colic this spring. Don't think he is quite good enough anymore but knows what he is doing in the majors.

OVERALL: Has the barrier of death at number 18 where no horse has ever won, he won't change that. But don't totally discount at long ends to scrape another 4th. Probably not this year though.

15. Monaco Consul

FORM: Wasn't great in the Turnbull, but was exceptional in the Caulfield Cup in these sort of conditions. The longer the race, the better he has been....

PROS: Has won a couple of derby's, been great in a Caulfield Cup and both of those form lines support him running very well tomorrow. Another mudlark as well.
Looks to be peaking as well.

CONS: Slight query perhaps over consistency this campaign and maybe against the absolute top shelf company but the good probably outweighs the bad.

OVERALL: In my first four. Think long and hard about this guy.

16. Profound Beauty

FORM: Finally we come to the first mare in the race. Ran a terrific 5th in 2008 as a four year old.
Has finished top two in five races this year. and has won many overseas staying races.

PROS: Super consistant and gutsy stayer who whilst up in weights from two years ago will stay only carry 54 which is definitely manageable.
Trainer has been a wonderful player here in the past.

CONS: Has had some slight injury and health niggles both back home and since arriving in Australia. Preparation has been ok, but not sensational.

OVERALL: I backed her to win this race after chatting with Dermot Weld about 10 months ago and I'm not dropping her just yet. Very good chance to do some damage in this race.
Consider her as you have to love a tough mare.

17. Zavite

FORM: Ran 9th in last year's Melbourne Cup when a lot more highly fancied. Has won two races at this distance in Adelaide and Auckland but not against anywhere near this company.

PROS: Is the definition of a stayer if ever there was one. Could run all day and should benefit from being here last year.

CONS: Form hasn't been flash at all and has struggled against this class. Hasn't placed in quite a while and whilst he will fight, he probably isn't quite there.

OVERALL: If it beats half of them home it's done well. Won't do much more then that.

18. Bauer

FORM: Has raced only twice in two years since running a desperately close second to Viewed in the 2008 Melbourne Cup.
Improved last to fourth in those two races though and looked a lot sharper second time around.

PROS: Has run a slashing Melbourne Cup before and certainly has a lot of quality. If fit, will be dangerous.

CONS: Might not be fit. Is some chance to get scratched pre race due to a hoof complaint and it's preparation in 2008 was considerably better then it has been this time.

OVERALL: Probably not this time.

19. Holberg

FORM: Has won at Group 3 level over this distance and has a very solid staying record in the UK.
Yet to run in an Aussie Group 1 and hasn't won at this level anywhere.

PROS: Has done everything right over distance at lower levels and is ready to step up and have a crack. Stable aren't mucking around bringing him here and are super keen for a win.
Won't carry much weight either and went from 350-1 to 21-1 as soon as it got accepted.

CONS: Can it beat this class? Who knows and that must be a genuine query until we see it.

OVERALL: Sneaky chance, some smart cookies rate this horse a chance and who am I to argue.
It's a risky bet due to the unkown about it but ya never know. Worth maybe a place dable.

20. Precedence

FORM: Was beaten by Linton in the Herbert Power a few weeks back but was a bit unlucky. Came back and was super in winning at the Valley over 2500 on Cox Plate day.
Controversially received a 1.5kg penalty which is probably why he is here.
Has raced once at 3200m and came last in the Sydney Cup.

PROS: Pretty solid horse who has mixed some very good with very poor in it's career. Past 5 starts have been very solid though but might need to sharpen a touch. Carrying bugger all weight and will be the second of the Bart Cummings horses.

CONS: Record in only start at distance is awful but is clearly better then that.

OVERALL: History would say probably not, but this campaign might argue differently. I don't think he will figure that prominently but he is a dangerous one to take on. If you want to go with Bart you could do worse.

21. Red Ruler

FORM: Similar to Zavite. Seems to have been around for ages but has good distance form.
Has been raced sparingly of late which should help and despite the Yalumba result has had a fair run of results lately. Is a better chance then Zavite though I'd say.

PROS: Has beaten quality in the past, and run well over distance in the past and is fairly consistent. Nice turn of foot could have it close if lucky.

CONS: You know what you'll get from him, but might lack a bit of punch when push comes to shove at the end.

OVERALL: Could come home well and scare and odds will be nice, think about a first four but probably better options

22. Linton

FORM: Could not have been more impressive in the Herbert Power, and followed that up with a nice run in the Lexus. Typical Williams horse in that he is lightly run, but very sharp. Shades of efficient (not just because is grey).

PROS: Has class, and is fresh. I have been saying ever since the Herbert that he will probably win next year's Melbourne Cup and I still believe that. Although not without a chance this time even if he has some maturing to do. They are huge Melbourne Cup lead up races that he performed in so watch him closely.

CONS: Maluckyday skipped away from him Saturday which might be a little worry, but more distance might help.
Has drawn a pretty poor barrier but not a disaster.

OVERALL: Looks like a Melbourne Cup winner if ever I have seen one. Will it be this year? Maybe.

23. Once were wild

FORM: Set a sharp pace in the Lexus, and fought on very bravely to finish 3rd to Linton and Maluckyday who it faces again here.
Has finished close to the placings at the Geelong Cup as well, so is at home at the level, even if perhaps not quite good enough to beat them consistently.

PROS: Has lots of courage. Will fight very hard. His placings in the above mentioned races is a good form indicator and whilst he hasn't won, he has beaten some highly fancied horses over the journey

CONS: Hasn't won for a little while and will need to change strategyslightly from the Lexus as he won't win trying to charge out like that.. 3200 a query given the way it races I think.

OVERALL: Probably not this time, although the second mare in the race has some fight about her. Expect it to be up there for a while, but should have a few go past her at the end.

24. Maluckyday

FORM: One of the stories of the day to come out of Derby Day, was absolutely superb in winning the Lexus and the cat is out of the bag now with the inexperienced horse third favourite now for the Cup.
Has won 5 of last 6 races and has dominated his last three. Doing everything right.

PROS: Rapid rise for this horse. Highly rated by all involved, jockey included and his last 3 have been superb runs.

CONS: Lacks a bit of experience and will have to contend with a huge field and a bit of traffic.
Is not a certainty to run, although you'd think it would. The Hawkes camp understandably a bit cautious with their young star.

OVERALL: Justifiable third favourite. Can stay the trip, don't worry about that, will be coming hard at the end and is a chance.

MY TIPS

Winner: So You Think

Biggest dangers: Maluckyday, Monaco Consul, Profoud Beauty, Descerado, Shocking

First Four bet: Maybe Box 6 of them. But put Zipping in there somewhere with a combination of the above. He'll be there that's for sure.

3 roughies: Campanoligist, Illustrious Blue, Holberg. - Maybe a small dabble on them wouldn't hurt.

Preview- St.Kilda vs Western Bulldogs - First Preliminary Final

2010-09-17T00:21:00.001-07:00

St.Kilda vs Western Bulldogs - MCG- Saturday Night

Last week :

St.Kilda - Week Off
Western Bulldogs - defeated Sydney by 5 points 11.11.77 to 10.12.72

Much like Friday night's clash we are comfronted with some deja vu with the Saints and the Bulldogs meeting in a Preliminary Final for the second year in a row.

Like Geelong, these two teams have been regular features in the top four for the past three years and once again they are in the thick of the action at the pointy end of the season.

St.Kilda earned a week off on the back of a triumphant four point win over Geelong a fortnight ago, whilst the Bulldogs responded to a week of questions with a gutsy five point win over the in form Swans.

That win was even more special given they were five goals down nearing half time against a team gunning for six straight victories.

A lot is said about junk time goals, and the frustration coach's feel when their teams give up a major or two late in a quarter but few would be feeling that quite like Paul Roos.

With the game slipping away the Bulldogs snared two very quick goals in the last two minutes of the second quarter to cut the margin to 16 points and more importantly swing the momentum of the contest.

When Jarrod Grant goaled in the first minute of the third term the direction of the game had changed completely and the Bulldogs were able to work their way to a memorable victory and keep the premiership dream alive.

Hooper contributed one of those crucial second term goals amongst his modest five posession debut but he will hold his spot and could still be an x factor against the Saints on saturday night.

Dale Morris's inclusion is important given his recent battles with Nick Riewoldt, and it does take pressure off the sore and out of sorts Tom Williams as well as allowing Brian Lake to peel off and be third man in at a contest.

From Rounds 1-18 the Bulldogs had an average disposal efficiency of 68% the best in the competition, but since then they have averaged 61.5% which is the worst in the league. They will need to be sharp and precise in the face of St.Kilda's relentless pressure if they are to create enough chances to win this game.

Ryan Griffen is the main man for the Bulldogs in the middle in the absence of Adam Cooney and he has been superb in both finals.

His ability to deliver long and accurately, and also pop up for a couple of goals is something the Saints will need to curb.

Barry Hall is the potential match winner in this one though, and he has hurt the Saints on this stage in the past.

Last week he had 11 score involvements from the Bulldogs 22 shots which is a huge percentage and expect Zac Dawson to get first crack at him with Fisher, Gwilt and Blake other options.

The key for the Saints though is to peel off and get extra players at the contest but also to cut off the supply and lower the number of entries.

If they do that, the Bulldogs will struggle as they averaged just 59 points a game against the Saints in the last four meetings.

For St.Kilda last week saw them produce a match simulation hit out at Moorabbin to try to replicate a game like environment so they can stay sharp and avoid a slow start like they had in last year's Preliminary Final.

A slow start that night could easily have been costly, and the Bulldogs will get a major sniff if they start well again.

A fortnight ago the Saints were fantastic against the Cats and for much of the night looked like blowing them away.

The tide turned late which is credit to Geelong but St.Kilda appeared to find another level after a long home and away season the moment September began.

Stephen Milne played clearly his best final, Koschitzke started well and Nick Riewoldt ran hard all day to be a constant danger.

The midfield was superb for most of the night both offensively and through pressure going the other way so Ross Lyon will be looking for a repeat performance this week.

Stephen Baker was the big discussion point all week but once again it appears as if he will miss out.

He has been named first emergency which raises the mystery around a possible late change but one suspects Lyon is unlikely to play games and Bakes will have to prey the Saints get through and then train the house down in the hope of winning a spot in a Grand Final.

Geary, Steven and Armitage would be the next three in line for a game but the Saints have gone unchanged from the team that did the job against the Cats.

Defensively St.Kilda have conceeded less points then anyone else for the second year in a row and have also recorded the highest disposal efficiency in the competition this season.

That points to their tendency to control the tempo of games, keep the ball off their opponents and deny them inside fifty opportunities as well as free running ball.

St.Kilda have been the most efficient side going forward as well in the past five weeks in terms of retaining posession once inside fifty so the Bulldogs will need to replicate the pressure they applied in last year's Preliminary Final.

Zac Dawson I expect will get first crack at Barry Hall with Gwilt to play on Murphy if he goes forward.

Gilbert or Fisher might take Grant with Dempster perhaps likely to play on Brad Johnson.

Clinton Jones who normally tags Cooney might take Boyd or Cross this time in the engine room with Picken likely to play on Dal Santo or Montagna.

At the other end Morris should get Riewoldt, Lake to take Koschitzke with Harbrow on Milne and Adam Schneider another key match up.

On to the tip and most would know it is difficult to tip with anything other then my heart on this one but my head also tells me the Saints should have the answers in what will be a tight affair for most of the night.

The Bulldogs are a top four side, and have been for a long time and despite their apparent fitness issues will be a very hard side to beat.

They also possess the run and flair which at times has caused the Saints grief this year, most notably when they played Carlton and Essendon.

However I just feel with a near full strength side, their own drive to succeed in the wake of 2009 and the benefit of a week off the Saints will be too strong and should pull away late to book a berth in back to back grand finals.

Nothing is easy in preliminary finals, and this won't be either, but St.Kilda to prevail.

St.Kilda by 28 points

Preview- Collingwood vs Geelong - Second Preliminary Final

2010-09-16T05:43:00.000-07:00

Collingwood vs Geelong - MCG- Friday Night

Last week: Collingwood - Week Off
Geelong - defeated Fremantle by 69 points 20.15.135 to 10.6.66

Well here we are! Crunch time in season 2010 for the competitions pace setters and the current reigning premiers.

For the third time in four years Geelong and Collingwood will meet in a Preliminary Final to earn the right at a shot at the ultimate glory.

The Cats have won the previous two meetings in september but the sides will meet under different circumstances this week.

Collingwood had the benefit of a week off whilst Geelong found themselves in unfamiliar territory with a cut throat final against Fremantle in the second week of September.

Predictably they took care of that game with a minimun of fuss and were able to run a few blokes into some form.

Joel Selwood and Brad Ottens benefited a lot from the extra run, and the Cats would have been pleased with how quickly they put the game to bed.

An eight goal first quarter took all the confidence out of the visiting team and the game was shot by the end of that first term.

Geelong had some scratchy moments from then on but in finals it's not about looking a million dollars, it's not about percentage or ladder positions, it is simply about progressing.

The Cats needed to beat Fremantle, and get into a Preliminary Final against the Pies without any fresh injuries and on that front it was mission accomplished so on we go to Friday night.

Podsiadly and Chapman did pick up niggles it's fair to say, but both are all clear and Geelong as a result had some interesting selection decisions to be made with the end result being no change.

Most of us expected Andrew Mackie to play, but the form of Harry Taylor is believed to be the reason that hasn't happened.

Geelong it has been said feel they need Tom Lonergan as a defensive re-inforcement if Harry Taylor is beaten by Travis Cloke, so as a result Mackie gets squeezed out.

Mark Blake was also in the mix to replace Hawkins if the side wanted to go with two specialist ruckmen as opposed to Hawkins as the second pinch hitting man.

Geelong are a high posession, efficient team but like everyone, consistent patterns emerge in their losses.

The Cats average 100 more posessions then their opponents when they win games this season, but when they have lost they averaged just nine more.

If you stifle their run, they are forced to find different avenues forward which takes them out of their comfort zone.

They are also the most efficient team in the comp once inside fifty, averaging a score from 55% of forward entries, and a goal from 31%.

They average on the whole 55 inside fifties a game, but when they met Collingwood a few weeks ago they had just 37.

Collingwood's pressure on the ball carrier broke them down consistently accross half back and through the middle.

It is easier said then done though against this super Cats team, but the Pies know they now have the blue print.

For Collingwood, last week was about ironing out injury niggles, and sorting out the best 22 going forward for what they hope is a productive fortnight.

Two weeks ago they demolished the Bulldogs in a trademark Collingwood 2010 performance.

They were relentless with their pressure on the ball carrier particulary on the Bulldogs runners coming out of defence and were able to generate four or five scoring opportunities from the same forward thrust on consistent occasions.

They also restricted the Doggies to a disposal efficiency of 48% which is the second lowest ever recorded in the history of Champion Data.

Sharrod Wellingham's ankle was the concern to come out of that game, as well as perhaps Leon Davis's form but both will play this week.

Davis has been solid with his frontal pressure and has been contributing in other ways. He may not be hitting the scoreboard as much as he once did, but that's not what it is all about.

Wellingham provides another important midfield rotation so his fitness was a vital boost.

Simon Prestigiacomo however might end up being this year's Max Hughton with the veteran defender missing out to Nathan Brown at the selection table.

With Goldsack, Lockyer, Medhurst and a host of others available but not selected it is no surprise the Pies have been so dominant this season.

As mentioned above, the ability to tie the ball in the front half of the ground has been one of the cornerstones of Collingwood's rise this year.

They have averaged 44 points a game from turnovers in the front half of the ground which is 11 more then any other side this year, and the Cats will need to be clean if they are to punch through.

Collingwood average more inside fifties and more effective long kicks then any other team so the key for the Cats is to pressure the ball carrier, make them use the ball short and by hand, and if you do that you will restrict the entries and perhaps take them out of their own comfort zone.

Scarlett should take Dawes, with Taylor getting first crack on Cloke. Lonergan might get Brown when he pushes forward with the out of form Josh Hunt playing on Davis.

At the other end, Brown will take Mooney, Hawkins going forward will get Reid, Toovey will get Johnson I reckon and the match up on the small runners in attack is crucial.

Ling I think should tag Didak who is the real game breaker in the middle of the ground.
Aside from that I think Geelong are best served trying to turn it into a midfield shoot out, something they may fancy their chances with.

On to the tip, and I think the subtle benefits sit with the Pies in what is a very even contest.

Geelong are a magical team, but when these sides have met previously in September the Cats have been a clear cut above the Pies, have had the week off and a settled line up.

This time the Pies have been every bit as good, they have the week off, and they have less selection headaches.

Geelong have had to do it the hard way, and would have had some serious questions in regards to the make up of the best 22.

I also back the pressure sides in finals, and Hawthorn of 08, and the present day St.Kilda and Collingwood sides have been the best in recent times at pressuring the opposition. All three of those teams have given the Cats grief of late.

Collingwood have the blue print, they have the confidence the form and the right personnel to take this one.

And come 10:30 friday night, they will have a berth in a Grand Final as well.

Collingwood by 10 points

Preview- Western Bulldogs vs Sydney - First Semi Final

2010-09-09T22:56:00.000-07:00

Western Bulldogs vs Sydney - MCG -Saturday Night

Last week: Western Bulldogs lost to Collngwood by 62 points 8.14.62 to 17.22.124
Sydney defeated Carlton by five points 14.15.99 to 13.16.94

The curtain will come down on the career of one of the modern era's finest players regardless of the outcome this Saturday night in what is a fascinating semi-final clash.

The in form Swans venture to Melbourne to face the talented yet stumbling Bulldogs for a place in a preliminary final against the Saints.

Either Brad Johnson or Brett Kirk will bid farewell to the game on Saturday night depending on the result so emotions will no doubt be at a high.

The Brett Kirk departure is something we have known about for a while, whilst Brad Johsnon made the seemingly inevitable decision earlier this week after a year in which it has been apparent his body is failing him.

Johnson has been one of the game's most brilliant and durable players but he is evidence of just how quickly the end can come for a player, and it is a timely reminder to his teammates about how important it is to take every opportunity that is presented to you during your career.

The Bulldogs have one last chance to win a flag for their wonderful skipper and that will no doubt be in the back of every player's mind this week and potentially over the next couple.

I think it was evident in their opponents last week. Sydney were in all sorts of trouble early in the last term against Carlton but simply refused to get beaten and willed themselves over the line.

Admittedly they had some good fortune as well, with the Blues squandering three or four massive chances when they had the game at their mercy but Sydney were still able to turn the tide in the middle and start to win the majority of stoppages around the ground in the closing fifteen minutes.

The Bulldogs need to take note of how Sydney won that game. It was through stoppage control and contested ball, an area the Bulldogs usually excel at, but not right at the moment.

From Rounds 1-19, the Bulldogs were the best contested ball team in the competition, beating their opponents by an average of 12 every game. In the four matches since, they have lost this stat by an average of 21 a game, ranked last.

The Bulldogs are also the game's number one clearance team this season but come up against a Swans side that conceeds less direct clearances then anybody else so the contrasting styles will be evident.

Sydney got hold of the Bulldogs a few weeks ago in a big way, but the Doggies had won the previous four matches between these teams and they'd be wise to check out the earlier meeting this year in Canberra.

An example of that is the previous mentioned contested ball stats. In Round 8, the Bulldogs won this stat by 24, the worst record by the Swans in a game this season. In Round 21, the Swans won it by 28, the best record in a game this season.

The Bulldogs pace and running capacity has often hurt the Swans and they need to go back to doing the things they do well, including contested ball.

All sorts of questions remain such as can they do it with some key players out? Overall do they have enough spark to take them on, and can they break the Sydney stranglehold?

My mind has gone either way on all of these and it promises to be such an intriguing game.

Shaun Higgins will miss the remainder of what has been a frustrating season as he battles a thyroid problem, whilst Adam Cooney remains sidelined for the season.

Dale Morris is believed to be an outside chance to play in the Preliminary Final if the Bulldogs progress which would be good news for the group, and young Andrew Hooper will become the first debutant in a final since Paul Spargo in 1985.

He should provide some pace and flair in the front half of the ground and also an unknown x factor for the swans coaching staff to consider.

For Sydney veteran Daniel Bradshaw and the gutsy Ben McGlynn will return to the side giving them an injection of aggression and experience.

McGlynn has been superb this season and has in many ways been a barometer for them, whilst Bradshaw started the season so well prior to injury but provides them with a real target in attack to help straighten them up.

Keiran Jack, Hannebry, McVeigh, Goodes, Bolton and Kirk all provide clearance strength and then the outside runners off half back Malceski, Shaw and Kennelly provide the class and flair for the Swans to help give them the right mix to be dangerous against any side.

Last week they were in trouble when the Blues moved the ball quickly. Their defence has been solid, but without Bolton and Roberts Thompson can be stretched when the ball is moved long and direct, but they aren't alone on that front.

The Bulldogs have the weaponry to make life difficult for them here as well, but Sydney are close to the best nullifiers in the comp in terms of restricting run, clearances and clean disposal.

On the bigger grounds though it is harder to do, and they have lost all three matches at the MCG this year (although two by less then a goal).

The key for the Bulldogs is to open it up and run, the key for the Swans is to generate stoppages and slow the tempo down, get it on their terms more to the point.

This is a genuine flip of the coin game. Two sides with contrasting styles, with plenty of motivation and the lure of a preliminary final.

History says the Bulldogs, as only one top four side has gone out in straight sets since the revised top four format in the year 2000 (eagles in 07), but like the Eagles that season, the Bulldogs are nursing some injuries and are facing a team in form at the right time.

Pound for pound, the Bulldogs are more skillful, have more firepower and accross the board are better.

But this Swans team is playing as well as they have all year, and are just so disciplined and determined it's hard to pick against them.

But like the Pies last year, and the Bulldogs in recent times they will find another leg and drag themselves over the line this week in a close, tense game of footy.

Another preliminary final awaits the winner, and for some reason, I'm going Doggies just.

Bulldogs by 2 points

Preview- Geelong vs Fremantle - Second Semi Final

2010-09-08T22:06:00.000-07:00

Geelong vs Fremantle - MCG - Friday Night

Last week: Geelong lost to St.Kilda 11.13.79 to 12.11.83 in Qualifying Final
Fremantle defeated Hawthorn 14.10.94 to 8.16.64 in Elimination Final

Geelong enter unfamiliar territory this week as they try to win a third flag in four years the hard way by playing four consecutive finals.

Fremantle on the other hand won a final for just the second time in the club's history with a polished and professional performance against a Hawthorn side that many expected would do some damage this September.

Geelong's place in the semi finals was brought about by a somewhat surprising four point loss to St.Kilda after they had trailed by nearly six goals half way through the third quarter.

The fact they very nearly pinched the game (save for an obvious and clear push in the back) speaks volumes of them as a side as they were staring down the barrell of a belting during that third term.

Selwood was very quiet in the first half, whilst Taylor and Hunt and even Scarlett were taken to the cleaners in the first half.

Gary Ablett was once again well tagged by Clinton Jones, but loomed as a constant danger in the second half and threatened to take the game away.

Paul Chapman recovered from a bruising bump from Lenny Hayes to be close to the Cats best, and kicked a crunch goal from a tight angle in the last quarter as others missed chances around him.

We are hearing that Andrew Mackie and Mark Blake are in the gun selection wise this week, and whilst one of those makes sense, the other doesn't.

Mark Blake or Tom Hawkins were always going to be vulnerable given the likely return of Podsiadly who just structures them up better.

Podsiadly is the most conventional forward of their big men and the question was whether they drop Blake and go with Hawkins as second ruck, or vice versa.

Against Aaron Sandilands, who will beat you in the tap outs regardless the key is mobility, and that's where Hawkins is going to offer much more around the ground.

Andrew Mackie on the other hand would be the wrong move. Yes put him under the grill, fire him up, but don't drop him.

Form aside, this is September, and you aren't winning flags without your best 22 up and about.

Challenge him to find form in the seniors, if you drop him, he's not going to get a kick there is he?

It's a catch 22. You don't want to play blokes out of form, but Geelong would struggle big time to win a flag without Mackie in the team and playing well.

For Fremantle last week was a further vindication of events a few weeks back in Tasmania.

Freshened up, the troops rolled Carlton (albeit just) to secure a home final and then faced a return bout with the side that tore them apart in Launceston back in Round 21 to the tune of 116 points.

The new look Dockers (or perhaps old look Dockers) controlled their Elimination Final from the get go and always appeared to have too much running depth and spread of class for the Hawks who no doubt felt the pinch of losing Rioli, and to a certain extent Ellis very early in the game.

The writing was on the wall though prior to that, and although it was only early, it looked as if Fremantle would have their measure.

David Mundy was best on ground, and whilst this week has brought the signature of the most prized man of all Matthew Pavlich, they are now super eager to secure Mundy's with a few Victorian clubs very much circling, namely the Bombers.

Sandilands has been the big focus all week, the big fella hurt a knee last week and spent most of the match in attack and they will need him fit and firing this week.

For Fremantle to win the game, Sandilands has to totally dominate in the centre bounces and probably be best on ground.

If he can't ruck to his usual extent, it puts pressure on Michael Johnson, and perhaps even Alex Silvagni who would be better served in a defensive post.

Adam Mcphee could potentially tag Ablett with pace being the obvious issue in that match up. Selwood and co in the middle won't be too keen to allow themselves to lower their colours again so the likes of Pavlich and Mundy hold such importance. Mcphee as well.

This is where the problem may sit for Fremantle. Yes they have pace and flair and skill which makes them dangerous, but if push comes to shove I think at this stage they lack the physical maturity to go with Geelong's match hardened finals bodies.

Selwood, Chapman, Ablett, Bartel, Kelly, Corey etc vs Mundy, Pavlich, Fyfe, Morabito, Hill, DeBoer.

Class no doubt, but the experience and clearance presence drops away.

The MCG factor won't be signficant to the result in my opinion as the lack of familiarity will be countered by the excitement factor and I also believe the Docker's style in many ways suits the ground.

Fremantle need to dominate the ruck, and then open the game up, spread from the contest, reduce the number of stoppages and just run like hell.

Geelong are a fast efficient side themselves and will probably win a shoot out anyway, but if the game becomes tight and in close I think Geelong could monster them.

Fremantle deserve undoubted respect for all they have done this year, and they deserve to be in the second week of September.

Whatever happens from here, they are one of the success stories of 2010 and should have a very bright future over the next three to four years.

A first ever MCG final, and a top four spot for most of the year is a huge tick, and they need to take this game on as an exciting opportunity.

If they play with freedom and agression they could make it a contest, but I doubt they can do much more at this stage.

They have not won an away game since Round 13, and Geelong are on the rebound and showed some ominous signs after half time last week.

Defensively Geelong can limit the damage, although the order of the day for Fremantle is running goals, back themselves from long range and attack the sticks rather then trying to pinpoint to leading options.

The problem with that is Fremantle's skill level is not the same as Geelong's and they could get hurt badly if they turn it over.

In attack, the Cats spread of talent has a bit too much class for the undermanned Fremantle defence and overall they boast superior depth in all areas bar perhaps the ruck.

Fremantle need to be brave and bold, but this Cat's machine is not going out in straight sets.

Too much class, too much poise, too much experience and the dream will stay alive for the Cats who will set up the mother of all blockbusters against the Pies next week.

Geelong by 47 points

Preview - Sydney vs Carlton - Elimination Final

2010-09-03T19:24:00.001-07:00

Sydney vs Carlton - ANZ Stadium - Sunday

Sydney 5th - 13-9-108.27%
Carlton 8th - 11-11 - 108.07%

Week one of the finals will conclude on Sunday with the in form Swans taking on a Carlton side entering back to back finals campaigns.

Last year Carlton experienced september heartbreak at the hands of the Brisbane Lions after leading by five goals early in the last quarter before being overrun.

Many clubs have been linked to some pain as motivation and Carlton are one that must surely carry that in the back of their minds.

The Blues are still on a journey, a journey that began as many as eight years ago when they bottomed out and lost draft picks and had to start a slow and painful rebuild.

Last year that climb finally got them back into the eight, and the next step is to win a final and these Blues on their day posess the tools to do so.

They will enjoy the fact this game is at ANZ Stadium as opposed to the SCG, as the smaller cricket ground does not suit their fast run and spread game.

Sydney are the masters at bottling up the space at the SCG and taking control of the stoppages, on the wider expanses of ANZ Stadium it is generally more difficult for Sydney to execute their style effectively and they boast a less then 50% winning record at the ground.

Carlton need to create space over the back of the contest like they did early and late against Fremantle last week.

In the first and last terms they backed their legs, ran hard and kicked long which broke over the back of Fremantle's rolling zone and created a lot of easy goals in space.

Sydney execute a more disciplined defensive press then Fremantle, but they do lack genuine leg speed in some crucial areas.

Basically this is a game that represents two sides with contrasting stryles so it promises to be a fascinating battle.

For Sydney, the last month has been a real triumph for the wonderful partnership between the departing Paul Roos and his troops.

Ever since that inexplicable Melbourne capitulation the Swans have returned to their trademark pressure, intensity and consistent spread of contributions.

Last week was a fantastic workmanlike victory in which they weathered the best Brisbane could throw at them, and then took control and went away impressively after half time.

Keiran Jack's class and poise is superb and he is the next generation of elite Sydney midfielders post the Brett Kirk/Jude Bolton era.

Malceski, McVeigh, Rhys Shaw and co all provided plenty of run, and in the absence of Craig Bolton the likes of Grundy and Richards have slipped into defence and provided a rock solid combination.

The amazing part about Sydney is the ability of players to slip in, find their niche and turn into very good players.

Mike Pyke is the classic example of that, he is one of the competitions most improved players this season and if Mumford plays, they loom as a potentially decisive duo.

Sydney have won 121 more stoppage first posessions this year which is second only to the Bulldogs, and they are the third highest scoring team from this stat this season.

Carlton conversely concede the second most points from stoppage first posessions and have trouble with teams that score from fast breaks, turnovers, rebounds etc as defensively their midfield can struggle.

For what we have said about the bigger ground, statistically their is evidence to suggest it might not help the Blues as much as first thought.

Carlton's disposal efficiency last week was 71%, their worst of the year, and if they repeat that they might get opened up too much the other way, much like what the Dockers did in quarters two and three.

Carlton's effectiveness going forward in the past month has dropped away as well, they average a mark from just 20% of inside fifties ranked 14th in that time, and they must take their chances against the ultra competitive Swans.

In a game of contrasting styles I like the Swans a lot in this one. Carlton deserve respect no doubt for their skill, fast ball movement and dangerous crumbing forwards, but Sydney have the tools to shut them down.

With a host of clearance players in form, dangerous rebounding half backs and one of the games most dynamic players in Adam Goodes I can see the Swans taking this one and progressing to the second week.

It would mean another september date at the MCG for Paul Roos before his swansong. And you just wonder how far his might take things season.

That journey into excitement will start on Sunday.

Sydney by 23 points

Preview- Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs - Qualifying Final

2010-09-02T23:47:00.001-07:00

Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs - MCG - Saturday Night

Collingwood 1st - 17-4-1 - 141.68%
Western Bulldogs 4th - 14-8 - 125.37%

Collingwood and the Bulldogs will clash on Saturday Night for the opportunity to have a week off and host a preliminary final.

The fortunes of the two sides have been heading in opposite directions in recent weeks, but that doesnt change the fact they have both qualified for the top four on the back of the season as a whole so Collingwood will no doubt be very cautious when assessing the wounded Bulldogs.

Collingwood despite a narrow win and a loss to Hawthorn in the past fortnight will enter September chock full of confidence an in the midst of the reality of what is their best premiership chance since the ill fated Brisbane double in 2002/2003.

Josh Fraser has made way this week as expected bringing back Leigh Brown who has enjoyed a super season for the Magpies but Tyson Goldsack was probably a surprise omission.

The Bulldogs aren't the tallest forward line in the world so that probably explains why, but he would have still provided an option for either Hahn or Grant in defence.

Paul Medhurst sadly is in the same boat as Josh Fraser I suspect, in that neither are likely to play AFL Football for Collingwood again, barring some unforeseen injuries in this finals campaign.

Once again if you were to find an issue for Collingwood in recent weeks it would have to be accuracy.

This time they had seven more shots then Hawthorn and a lost, a week earlier they had eight more shots then Adelaide and got home by three points and there is no doubt this is a concern.

Collingwood overwhelm sides through weight of numbers, and simply generate so many inside fifties and so many scoring chances that they are able to produce a winning score regardless, but in finals when scoring becomes tougher, the contest becomes that little bit fiercer, you wonder how many times they can get away with it.

Collingwood average 12 more contested posessions, 14 more tackles and 12 more inside fifties a game then their opponents this year which ranks number one in all three areas which suggests they overwhelm sides through pressure and the volume of entries to the point where it is nearly impossible to keep them out.

For the Bulldogs, last week was an expected and professional win highlighted by the six goal haul to young emerging forward Jarrod Grant.

Ryan Griffen pulled up lame with a knee injury and despite being named, he remains the big mystery ahead of this match.

He will undergo last minute fitness tests and if he is a late withdrawal, the Bulldogs lose arguably their classiest midfield finisher on top of the absence of Cooney and Morris.

Dale Morris is structurally their most important player as he takes the opposition's best forward each week and in the process releases Lake, Hargrave and co to peel off and play loose at any given time.

Harbrow and Gilbee remain the keys when trying to stop this team, the run they provide off half back and the precision they use by foot makes them the most dangerous team in the competition skill wise when in form.

Expect Sidebottom or Ball to get an offensive job on one of them, but the job will be made easier by the fact Gilbee may need more midfield time due to no Cooney, and one or both may have to play more accountable roles without Morris.

That is part of the roll on problem losing these players poses for Rodney Eade.

Shaun Higgins will come back in and he is very much the x factor in this line up. A classy kid who can play forward and midfield, he just needs a sustained run of fitness to assert himself.
He has not been able to have that at any stage of his career so far.

Collingwood are the competitions best tackling team, and the Bulldogs statistically are the worst averaging just 61 a game.

The Bulldogs are also the poorest side accross the last month at turning inside fifties into scores averaging a score with just 39% of their entries.

Collingwood's pressure on the ball carrier has dismantled the Bulldogs twice at Etihad this year, but strangely enough the Dogs may welcome the more space on offer at the somewhat unfamiliar MCG.

However that won't be enough for mine. The Bulldogs will be brave, and are a worthy and dangerous top four foe that could make like difficult for Collingwood, but these Pies are primed and ready for this clash and should get it done.

With a spread of midfield runners, an in form defensive unit and a potent and lively attack the Pies will march into a Preliminary Final and play the Saints or the Cats.

Collingwood by 27 points

Preview- Fremantle vs Hawthorn - Elimination Final

2010-09-01T23:16:00.000-07:00

Fremantle vs Hawthorn - Subiaco - Saturday

Fremantle 6th - 13-9 - 103.88%

Hawthorn 7th - 12-9-1 - 110.67%

Fremantle will host a final for the third time in their history this Saturday as they comfront the experienced and in form Hawks in a cut throat contest.

Hawthorn have eleven wins and a draw from their past fifteen matches which puts them amongst the very best teams in the competition since Round 7, whilst Fremantle have won just three times since Michael Barlow went down with injury but one of those wins was last week.

A hard fought win over the Blues last friday night probably served as vindication for Mark Harvey who was questioned by many for his decision to rest so many big guns the week before (ironically against Hawthorn) in the hope of freshening his side up for an assault on the Blues.

Harvey knew his team only needed to win one of the last two if they were to secure a home final and he didn't want to take the risk of a six day break coming back from Tasmania.

It is hard to argue with that logic, given the Dockers appeared to be tiring as the season went on, and that sort of road trip is probably the hardest there is when coming from Perth.

Aaron Sandilands demonstrated that he is probably the games most influential big man with a 20 posession, 40 hit out game that helped feed Morabito, Hill, Mundy and co who for a lot of the night ran ragged.

Fremantle had the pressure and the run and spread of the early parts of the season, they just didn't nail all of their chances and were a bit wasteful going forward. But on the whole it was an effort that should fill them with confidence.

The question is now, how do they fare against an experienced and hungry Hawthorn side that is in it's best form since winning the flag in 2008.

That Hawthorn side is coming off a stiring three point come from behind win over the ladder leaders Collingwood last week and will welcome Luke Hodge back into the side for this Saturday.

It's hard to gauge how much it meant to the Pies given they could not lose top spot, but it was a good win just the same.

Collingwood led by more then three goals half way through the last quarter so they had to come from a fair way back.

Lance Franklin was superb with six goals, and Cyril Rioli starred through the middle and up forward with 27 touches and two goals.

Roughead, Ellis, Burgoyne, Stratton and a host of others were all solid contributors and they will be looking for more of the same.

Subiaco hasn't been a happy hunting ground of recent times for Hawthorn, but usually it has been the Eagles that have given them most grief, they did beat Fremantle on their most recent meeting in Perth last year on a friday night.

The interesting match to look at is two weeks ago. Hawthorn defeated Fremantle by 116 points in Launceston and Mark Harvey quipped that the game meant Freo had had a look at them, but the Hawks conversely hadn't seen any of what the real Dockers would look like.

That is probably clutching at straws but I like the sentiment in it. Harvey has had his war face on these past couple of weeks and the response has been good, they will need a similar response this week.

I think it best to just scrap that game from discussion, as Hawthorn are well aware that this Fremantle side will bear almost no resemblance to the one they faced so it's best they approach it is a blank canvas.

Hayden Ballantyne went down with another apparent stress fracture last week which will hurt, as he provides plenty of spark, but Des Headland is a man in the mix for selection and it wouldn't be a bad idea to give him a crack given his experience.

On the other side, Hawthorn will almost certainly persist with Wade Skipper as it's second ruckmen. His mobility will be important on the big ground at Subiaco when trying to counteract Aaron Sandilands impact.

Hodge, Guerra, Young, Ellis, Burgoyne and co will provide plenty of run and precision off half back and despite their overall lack of pace, they have the skills and long kicking ability to exploit Fremantle over the back of their zone.

Carlton were able to shoot over the top of the zone defence and score goals in behind them much like Collingwood did earlier this year when they beat Fremantle.

You could also see it in their losses to St.Kilda and the Bulldogs in the second half of the year.

Fremantle are quick, but their zone can be broken down. Pace though is something they can use as a strength.

Hawthorn can be outrun in space if they turn the ball over and Subiaco can be a dangerous ground if you don't hit your targets.

For Fremantle it is counter attack and precision. They rank second for scores generated from the corridor, and second for goals scored once inside fifty.

For Hawthorn it's about controlling the stoppages and using their foot skills to great effect.

It is the latter that wins out for mine. Hawthorn have the more experienced bodies, and the greater spread of midfield options that are in form at the moment.

If Fremantle win this, they will play a final at the MCG for the first time in their history, and in many ways their season deserves that.

However the reality is despite the freshen up last week they are still vulnerable and Hawthorn have the ability to exploit that with their match hardened finals experienced group.

The Hawks will tee up a clash with either Geelong or St.Kilda in week two of the finals at the MCG.

A simply mouth watering prospect.

Hawthorn by 20 points

Preview - Geelong vs St.Kilda - Qualifying Final

2010-09-01T05:58:00.000-07:00

Geelong vs St.Kilda - MCG - Friday Night

Geelong 2nd - 17-5 - 147.94%
St.Kilda 3rd - 15-6-1 - 121.62%

For the third year in a row the Cats and the Saints will clash in September, and once more it will be as top four sides and genuine contenders.

Geelong enter this finals campaign as the reigning premiers keen to write their own place in history amongst the games immortals with a third flag in four years.

For St.Kilda it's all about vindication, and finishing the job theycame agonisingly close to achieving last year.

It was of course Geelong that denied them on that cold and wet afternoon in late september and just how much of a motivation that pain will serve remains to me seen.

It will be a factor though at least on the mindset of the players, but the game should not be won or lost on that.

The Cats are the highest scoring team in the competition and boast superstars on every line.
Another seven players nominated for All Australian, another 114 points averaged each week and possibly another Brownlow Medal for Gary Ablett who despite his occasional critics (there are some), he has had statistically in some ways a better year then last.

He has gone forward and kicked 40 plus goals for the season as well as still maintaining an average of over 30 posessions a game.

There isn't a midfielder in the land that has a season cv comparable to that, even Dane Swan who whilst similar in disposals, has kicked 25 less goals.

The Brownlow is probably a race between those two and we know Gary can poll, and you should be able to guarantee he will finish with three votes for last weeks effort.

With Podsiadly still suspended, Geelong can settle on their big man situation with Hawkins in attack with Mooney, and Mark Blake sharing the ruckload with Brad Ottens. Basically their formula circa the last two years.

Ling will tag Dal Santo, whilst Ablett might draw Clinton Jones for company as he has in the last three meetings between these teams.

Last time these sides met, Geelong went goalless in the entire second half, their worst performance in over a decade.

You can slot names like Chapman, Ottens, Kelly, Corey, Hawkins and a couple of others back into the side so they will be much stronger this time and keen to atone from that earlier defeat at the hands of one of their modern rivals.

Geelong's run and spread game started to find its feet in the second half last week and it is fair to say the Cats very much had an eye on this friday night's clash.

The Saints also had an eye on this game and that was clear by the way they chipped the ball around in the closing minutes rather then attacking the game flat out.

Momentum was with the Crows and St.Kilda affectively put the que in the rack and started preparing for the first final.

This can often be an awkard factor when a side essentially has nothing to play for, and that is taking nothing away at all from Adelaide who all day looked the better side.

From the last time these sides met St.Kilda can welcome back Nick Riewoldt and Jason Gram and this will also be the first time Steven Baker has played since that imfamous friday night where he copped a farcical nine week suspension for something seen at least twenty times since accross the subsequent rounds. (Perhaps the inner saint coming out)

St.Kilda's defence remains the cornerstone of it's chances. They conceed just 44 nside fifties a game which ranks number one in the AFL, and also give up a score on just 45% of those occasions which is the second best defensive record in the competition this year.

Contested ball is important as well, St.Kilda won the contested ball count against the Cats earlier this year and it was the first time they had beaten them in that stat for four years.

As a result they were able to control the tempo as St.Kilda statistically are the best team in the AFL by foot.

Zac Dawson may get Mooney with Fisher likely now to play, and possibly take Hawkins. Baker will get Johnson, and Chapman who has imfamously broken Saint hearts in recent times might draw a Dempster for company.

At the other end Harry Taylor will renew hostilities with Nick Riewoldt, Lonergan might get Kozi, with Scarlett rolling off onto a medium and perhaps trying to hurt them on the rebound.

Josh Hunt should get Milne, whilst Mackie or Enright might go to Schneider who killed them earlier this season.

David Armitage is an interesting one. St.Kilda need to make three changes with Baker, Schneider and Milne to return and he would be one player who is probably in strife but his ability to win the contested ball on what is likely to be a wet night could be significant.

This promises to be another cracking contest that should once again go down to the wire.
Weather conditions will be similar to the last two times these sides have met, and expect a similar game.

St.Kilda controlled the tempo in both of those and it's a matter of class vs defense not to take too many niceties away. Geelong's ability to break it open and create scoring bursts vs St.Kilda's ability to control the tempo will be the decisive battle.

With pain as an extra motivation, and the lure of a likely Grand Final berth for the winner, the Saints squeeze them just.

St.Kilda by 6 points

Preview - Brisbane vs Sydney - Gabba - Round 22

2010-08-27T00:32:00.000-07:00

Brisbane vs Sydney - Gabba - Saturday Night

Brisbane 13th - 7-14 - 93.19%
Sydney 5th - 12-9 - 106.46%

One of the competitions form sides will head north of the border this weekend in the hope of securing a home final.

The Sydney Swans have been in super form over the past three weeks and will enter September confident of doing some damage if they can maintain their current tempo.

For the Lions the last three weeks have been a lot better, two wins and a tight loss as some system and structure starts to return to the fold.

Jonathan Brown's 200th game last week was the perfect tonic for the group and the gutsy champion produced a vintage performance taking 16 marks accross half forward.

He ended up with 4.6 but the impact he has on his team goes beyond the stat sheet and as he finally succumbs to injury in 2010 you can guarantee it will hurt his team immensely.

Rockliff, Redden, Banfield, Harwood and Leunberger continue to develop nicely for the Lions but it is imperative they don't lose all of Brennan, Rischitelli and Drummond with all suggested as possible players looking for a new home.

It appears almost certain Brennan will go, and Drummond is keen to stay, the Lions just cannot meet his pay demands whilst Rischitelli has had a ripper season and they would be keen to secure his signature.

For the Swans last week was another triumph in the partnership of Paul Roos and Brett Kirk with a gutsy home win over quality opposition.

Together they have symbolised what has been a wonderful era for this proud club and you cannot help but admire the way the Sydney Swans go about things.

With Bradshaw and Bolton a chance to return early in September you wonder which path Roos might go down, given he would be taking a risk to select them with hardly any footy under their belt, yet at the same time he'd be well aware of the importance these blokes hold to their structure.

You must also factor in that O'Keefe and Mcglynn didn't play either and Mumford went down early in the game so it was an excellent victory.

This week though the Swans have few concerns with all the injury and selection issues located up north in the mind of Michael Voss.

Without Brown it's hard to picture Brisbane breaking through the strong defensive zone that Sydney applies often enough to win the game.

Sydney are aslo a wonderful stoppage team and should restrict them enough firstly, and then exploit the sometimes loose Lions runners.

Sydney by 17 points

(Match preview cut short due to my flu battle...apologies )

Preview - Richmond vs Port Adelaide - Round 22

2010-08-26T20:43:00.000-07:00

Richmond vs Port Adelaide - Etihad Stadium - Sunday

Richmond 15th - 6-15 - 71.97%
Port Adelaide 10th - 9-12 - 80.91%

The curtain will come down for one of the modern era's finest players this Sunday with Ben Cousins bowing out on his own terms.

With the release of the documentary this week the 2005 Brownlow Medalist has been the talk of the town and make no mistake he will play this week despite the words coming out of the club.

For his Richmond side it is the chance to put a final full stop on what has been an ultimately positive season in which they have exceeded the expectations of almost everyone.

For Port Adelaide it is the chance to continue their ressurection on season 2010 and produce a fifth win from six starts.

Matthew Primus will coach Port Adelaide next year there is little doubt about that, and so he should given his recent results.

Port Adelaide's season was spiralling out of control at Round 15 but since then with the exception of a horrendous defeat to St.Kilda at Etihad Stadium the Power have been very impressive.

Admittedly all four of their victories have come at Aami Stadium but it's been the hunger and commitment that has really stood out.

Matthew Primus would be eager to win a game on the road though and if they do they could conceivably finish as high as 9th which would be a fair recovery.

Brett Ebert this week successfully underwent LARS surgery on his badly damaged knee but his absence will rob them off some firepower no doubt, but with Jay Schulz eager to perform against his old side, Westhoff and Grey in form they still have the tools to kick a winning score.

In the last six weeks Port Adelaide have averaged just 46 Inside fifties a game which ranks last yet they have won four of those games which suggests a new efficiency in their playing style.

They have also won the inside fifty count just three times from their nine interstate trips this year which further emphasises that trend.

Last week they scored 71 points directly from Melbourne turnovers which was their best differential this season and Richmond can be sloppy by foot so they will be looking to hurt them at all times.

For Richmond, last week was a pleasing performance despite the 21 point loss to St.Kilda and they would have been particularly happy with their ability to hurt the Saints on the counter attack, and the fact they maintained the pressure all day.

Even when St.Kilda opened up a 37 point buffer in the final term the Tigers kept coming and had the last six scoring shots of the game.

They scored ten goals from St.Kilda turnovers and they also recorded their highest disposal efficiency of the season in what was a strangely open game.

Both sides played quite a free flowing style and it suited Richmond's style down to the ground.

This year Richmond rank third for tackles, third for clearances but last for disposal efficiency so if they can sharpen up then the results should start to come.

It is easier said then done though and I'm sure Hardwick is aware of the work required and won't be getting ahead of himself by any means.

Daniel Jackson will miss again with injury but the inclusion of Trent Cotchin was really positive last week with his class around the stoppages so crucial.

He kicked two very nice goals and used the ball sublimely and his assistance at the stoppages for Cousins, Tuck, Martin and co is so important.

If you add a fit Jackson and Foley to that group it's no surprise as to why there are so many wraps on their midfield.

Then there's Ben Cousins. The story about his second chance at football is about far more then sport, it's about potentially saving his life and reaching out for him in his time of need.

A guy that gave the game so much was brought back into the footballing family at his time of need and if you hear from Ben and his father Bryan in that documentary you get an understanding for how significant it was that they gave him that lifeline.

He will forever hold a special love for the Richmond football club and that will be a telling factor on Sunday.

His teammates have a wonderful repour with him and he has taught them plenty over the two years.

Whilst the partnership maybe not have been immensely successful on field in terms of wins and losses, the impression he has left on his some of his teammates will be telling.

Expect a big crowd to show up Sunday to wrap up one of the most controversial yet brilliant football careers.

A few weeks ago I pictured this game panning out like the Hawthorn v Geelong clash in Round 22 of 2006 with a young emerging side smashing a team that had faced much scrutiny all year for under achieving.

I could see Richmond doing that to Port Adelaide, but the Power have experienced a ressurection of their own in the past six weeks and will be keen to finish the year strongly.

However I still think this will be Richmond's day.

With a big crowd in support, some young kids playing with confidence and the incentive to send Ben Cousins off in style I think it will be a fitting end for the number 32.

Send him off in style they will, and win number seven will be forthcoming for Dimma's men.

Richmond by 28 points

Preview- Western Bulldogs vs Essendon - Round 22

2010-08-25T21:57:00.000-07:00

Western Bulldogs vs Essendon - Etihad Stadium - Saturday Night

Western Bulldogs -4th - 13-8-124.82%
Essendon - 14th - 7-14 - 80.70%

Will this be the last time Matthew Knights coaches the Bombers? And are the Bulldogs done in 2010?

These two questions are the main focus points in another week both of these clubs would rather forget.

For Essendon, one last chance at pride presents itself this saturday night when they take on the Western Bulldogs whilst for the Dogs it is a chance to desperately find some form before a monumental assignment in week one of the finals.

Down at Windy Hill, scrutiny has once again been placed on Matthew Knights on the back of another dissapointing loss, this time to a Brisbane side that has struggled for most of the year.

Supporters have been hammering talkback radio calling for Knights head, and some extending that anger towards the board as well.

Say what you like about Essendon, the situation at present is probably untenable even if elements of the criticism are unfair.

Matthew Lloyd made the point in regards to defence in that to be a very good side you need to develop a strong defensive component to your game and sadly for the Bombers they have been unable to do so under Knights duration as coach.

In 2008 they conceeded more points then any other side, last year they conceeded the fifth most, and this season they are back to the most conceeded and this is an area you would want to see some improvement in.

Essendon conceed more inside fifties then anyone else, a higher percentage of marks once inside fifty then any one, the most effective disposals and the most points directly from stoppages.

This indicates that it probably isn't the fault of actual defence, but more a by product of the side's horrendous ability to apply pressure and restrict opposition ball carriers.

Too often teams get easy ball against Essendon and can execute under little pressure going forward.

The Bombers desperately need more clearance support for Jobe Watson who flies the flag in there, and it's pleasing that Mark McVeigh has signed on for a further two years to add some experience, even if he is likely to play out time in defence.

The question needs to be asked though, is it Knight's coaching? Or does he simply not have the cattle to execute a more defensive style of footy?

I think it is probably a combination of both but my main issue is the Bombers fans are destroying their own club due to a misguided sense of expectation.

Essendon fans through no fault of their own had been spoon fed success for nearly two and a half decades under Kevin Sheedy and there tends to be a total lack of tolerance to the work required in a rebuild.

Matthew Knights has been there three years. Some see that as long enough to turn them back into a force, but when you consider how appaling the list was when he took over surely people can cut him a degree of slack?

On the field the positives this year have been Carlisle, Hardingham, Gumbleton, Colyer, Melksham, Howlett, Hooker and probably Ryder.

Essendon's list has improved a lot in recent years and they should be optimistic going forward over the next few years whether Knights is coach or not.

Their opponents the Bulldogs have endured a week from hell with several big names succumbing to injury and a second straight belting on the eve of the finals.

Dale Morris and Adam Cooney will miss the remainder of the season, Brad Johnson could conceivably never play again and Shaun Higgins remains a source of frustration as he battles ongoing calf/illness issues.

On field they were trounced by the Swans and some key stat areas were particularly concerning.

The Bulldogs conceeded 104 more disposals and 82 more uncontested posessions to Sydney their worst differential in each stat for the entire season.

One of the strengths of Rodney Eade's men is their ability to win first posession at stoppages but in the past fortnight they have been destroyed in these areas and that's where their own lack of pressure can hurt them.

They rank last for tackles this season and have also caught opposition sides holding the ball just 61 times this season, the worst of any team in the comp.

If the Bulldogs are beaten in the clearances you can invaraibly say good night very quickly.

The good news is they play one of the worst stoppage teams in the league on Saturday night and it provides them with the chance for some much needed confidence leading into September.

It is nearly impossible to see this team winning a flag without Cooney and Morris plus possibly one or two others, but they do have some solid depth and they will carry a top four finish into September which always gives you a chance.

If they can somehow beat Collingwood in that first final, somehow, they will earn a week off, freshen a few blokes up and host a preliminary final and you just never know.

I strongly doubt they can still win the flag, and they may not have been able too anyway, but they aren't going to finish top four based on what they have done in the past fortnight, they will do it based on the previous six weeks of excellence.

Eagleton, Moles, Hill etc are going to have to step up and assume the responsibility left behind by these guys and it poses unwanted headaches for the coaching staff.

Rodney Eade will be aware of the fact Essendon got hold of them last time and the strange enigma with the Dons is that five of their seven wins have come against top eight teams this year which would suggest to you that they can play.

Consistency for both of these teams is probably the big issue, but the Bulldogs boast more depth and a greater spread of options at both ends of the ground.

In particular though it's ther numbers through the middle, even without Cooney that should have too much for the tired Bombers.

In what could be the end of the road for Knights, there will be no fairytale, and for the Bulldogs a bit of hope before it all really hots up!

Bulldogs by 27 points

Preview - Adelaide vs St.Kilda - Round 22

2010-08-25T07:39:00.000-07:00

Adelaide vs St.Kilda - Aami Stadium - Saturday

Adelaide - 12th - 8-13 - 92.64%
St.Kilda - 3rd - 15-5-1 - 124.38%

Adelaide and St.Kilda will lock horns at the unusual time of 3:40 on a Saturday in what looms as an intriguing Round 22 Clash.

For St.Kilda, week one of the finals is confirmed and they will meet the Cats the following Saturday in an enormous game.

For Adelaide a trying and fascinating season will end with the club farewelling up to four of their finest servants.

Premiership stars Andrew Mcleod, Simon Goodwin and Tyson Edwards have all given it away this season, as has high flying forward Brett Burton and the sad part is due to injury, none of them will be given a farewell game. (With the exception of Edwards back in the middle of the year.)

However their presence will no doubt give all their teammates a massive lift as they close the book on a proud era for this wonderful club.

On field, despite an enormous injury list, the Crows have been very solid since that horrendous start.

Since Round 6 they are 8-7 in terms of Win - Loss, and have recaptured that dogged tenacity that was one of the cornerstones of Neil Craig's coaching.

Last week was a typical example, coming off a difficult assignment on a hot day in Brisbane they ran the might of Collingwood all the way to the line.

In recent weeks they have also defeated Geelong, and pushed the Western Bulldogs hard so they can certainly win this game given they have nothing to lose and the Saints have plenty.

St.Kilda will no doubt have a crack, they always do under Ross, but they are safe in the top four and you must subconsciously have an eye on the first week in September no matter how hard you try to avoid it.

Mackay, Jaensch, Henderson, Davis and a host of others have improved this side this year, and they were keen to make a statement to Nathan Bock and the footy world that they were very much ok going forward without their former star.

Their defensive zone set up last week was fantastic and simply gave Collingwood no run out of defence and restricted the way they went forward.

The Crows have lost the Inside fifty count in each of their last five games against St.Kilda, and 14 times this season, they have also laid on average 10 fewer taclkes then their opponent in each game.

Stats that don't look flash against St.Kilda, however they have been the best side in the comp for marks inside fifty per number of entries this year, and if they are precise going in, the Saints can be vulnerable.

For St.Kilda last week was a very open affair and a good hit out for the boys in what was a surprisingly free flowing game given the nature of the Saints style and the fact they have strangled Richmond on each of the last two occasions they met.

With no Jones or Hayes in the middle they had lost a bit of grunt and that was evident with the Tigers doing well as per normal around the stoppages.

Jack Riewoldt was isolated one on one and given the quick ball movement, and his undeniable class meant he was always a handful for Sam Fisher firstly and then Jason Blake.

Kurt Tippett has had a couple of good days against St.Kilda over the journey so the Crows will no doubt be trying to maximise his space.

With Hayes, Jones, Gardiner and Dawson all available for selection this week, St.Kilda will essentially only have Steven Baker missing from their best 22, and the nuggety defender will return in the first final the following week.

St.Kilda ranked second for disposal efficiency this year meaning they are lethal on the turnover, but also excellent at controlling the tempo by keeping posession.

This is also evident by the fact they only let sides play on from 35% of the marks they take ranked first in the competition.

Adelaide will need to be smart and pro-active as this year they have struggled against the sides that specialise in stifling run.

For the Saints it's largely all about injury preservation but at the same time you cannot flirt with form and no-one wants to enter the finals on a loss.

With Bock missing as a potential match up for Riewoldt you would expect Davis might get a go at it, with Rutten taking the slower, yet building Justin Koschitzke.

Johncock might get Milne with Schneider probably the difficult match up given his outstanding form and ability to push into the middle.

Blake will get Tippett, with Fisher possibly lining up on Henderson. James Gwilt seems the logical man for Taylor Walker given the size and mobility of the two is similar.

Clinton Jones will do the tagging role most likely on Scott Thompson who has been a star this year.

On to the result, and whilst Adelaide are certainly finishing strongly it has been an emotional few weeks for an essentially young group missing a stack of players and whilst they will be keen to send off their retiring stars, there is also potential for a let down.

St.Kilda are a touch vulnerable given the timing, but are also such a dogged determined group and I think they will still come to play.

I could see St.Kilda putting too much pressure on the young Crows runners and controlling the stoppages with some bigger bodies.

Should be tight, and dour but the Saints to make it sweet 16 and gear up for the mighty Cats!

St.Kilda by 11 points

Preview - Hawthorn vs Collingwood - Round 22

2010-08-25T02:27:00.000-07:00

Hawthorn vs Collingwood - MCG- Saturday

Hawthorn - 7th - 11-9-1 - 111.07%
Collingwood - 1st - 17-3-1 - 144.49%

Saturday afternoon footy at the MCG will be the stage for another blockbuster clash this week with the desperate Hawks taking on the might of the rampaging Magpies.

For Hawthorn, it is in all likelihood a must win clash if they are to avoid a trip to Sydney or Perth in the first week of the finals whilst for Collingwood it is an opportunity to fend off a would be challenger, and fine tune their side for September.

Leigh Brown will miss the clash through suspension which has opened the door for Josh Fraser to play his long awaited 200th game.

It could also potentially be his last for the club as well, although if he played a blinder it would create an interesting dilemma for Mick Malthouse and his men.

Would they bring Leigh Brown straight back in if say Josh Fraser kicked four goals and had twenty five posessions?

Purely hypothetical, but would be an interesting conundrum just the same if it were to eventuate.

Paul Medhurst is also a potential inclusion with Allan Didak pulling up sore with a shoulder at training during the week, and a rest may be on the cards.

Last week the Magpies dodged a bullet against the Crows but in many ways the game had some positives.

Yes they again kicked poorly in front of goals, and Adelaide controlled the tempo of the game throughout, but despite that Collingwood still found a way to win, and it was simply through weight of numbers that they did so.

They kicked just six goals for the game, but generated so many chances and inside fifties that they eventually got over the top of them.

They will want to kick straighter, but few sides can stem the tide against them for long enough to get over the top.

Hawthorn with the exception of their Round 4 meeting this year have had the wood over the Pies with some thumping wins over them in recent seasons.

Franklin and Hodge have career best records against them and provided Hodge plays they will both draw a lot of attention.

For Hawthorn, last week was a difficult game to get a reading on. Yes Hawthorn were ruthless and slick, but they played less then a rabble with several big name Fremantle players out of the side.

However in saying that, you still have to get the job done and the likes of Rioli, Burgoyne, Ellis and co all found some ominous form.

Shaun Burgoyne in particular is such a smooth mover and too see him in full flight this close to September is a huge bonus.

If Hawthorn win, they need either Fremantle or Sydney to lose if they are to earn a home final in the first week.

If they lose they could play either Fremantle in Perth, Sydney in Sydney (the least prefered option) or Carlton at the MCG (probably the best option).

It has the potential to be a blockbuster no doubt, but there is a heck of a lot more on the line for the Hawks this week so you wonder what attitude Collingwood might take.

I would imagine they would go quite hard given you don't want to drop a game this close to September and they could meet the Hawks again in a couple of weeks if certain results go that way.

Lance Franklin will draw either Nathan Brown or Reid, but more then likely Brown given Reid probably won't return from injury.

Roughead would then get either O'Brien or Maxwell and this is an area Hawthorn could exploit.
With two first choice key backs unavailable, Hawthorn have the capabilities to stretch Collingwood with the two big guys up forward.

Rioli if he plays forward might get Toovey or Shaw, with the other likely to match up on Michael Osborne.

At the other end, Gilham should get Dawes and perhaps the exciting young Ben Stratton will play on Travis Cloke who is in dangerous form despite his kicking yips.

Dale Thomas in in career best form and is such an important player with his skill and smarts, and he could perhaps draw a lock down player.

Collingwood are the hardest team to tag with their heavy rotations but you simply must put some time into a couple of their midfield runners due to the number of options otherwise you will get overwhelmed.

This game will be a very tight affair, but with the exception of last week Collingwood have been absolutely outstanding.

Hawthorn will throw everything at them and will enter the game in solid form, but they just lack the defensive spread to counter all of Collingwood's options, and I could also see the Pies having a slight edge in midfield depth, maybe not class, but certainly the spread of options.

Expect a hard fought finals like affair, but in a possible pre-curser of things to come, Collingwood will take this one.

Collingwood by 8 points

Preview - Geelong vs Westcoast - Round 22

2010-08-24T20:42:00.000-07:00

Geelong vs Westcoast - Skilled Stadium - Round 22

Geelong - 2nd - 16-5 - 147.25%
Westcoast - 16th - 4-17 - 77.93%

Skilled Stadium will play host to a game on Saturday afternoon where the only questions will be, how far Geelong? and will everyone get through unscathed?

The Eagles are at the finish line on a painful season, one in which they will take out the wooden spoon for the first time in the club's history.

For Geelong last week was another solid an impressive win over a side that has given them much trouble in the past couple of years and they will enter this game with close to a full list available.

Bomber Thompson indicated that Geelong would not be holding back at the selection table this week as they look to fine tune for a September assault they hope will net a third flag in four years.

Max Rooke is probably done and dusted now for season 2010, he did not play VFL last week which means he has not played at any level for over four months and as good as he is, you couldn't see them bringing him in blind for a september campaign given the depth they possess.

Ling, Lonergan, Ottens and Mackie should all return this week which creates dilemmas for the coaching staff as they determine just who should miss out.

Podsiadly and Hunt are the obvious ones given they copped suspensions, and maybe young Menzel could be stiff and get squeezed out along with Taylor Hunt.

Given the fact Podsiadly is out, you would expect Hawkins too get pushed forward, with Blake holding on to ruck duties with Brad Ottens.

Paul Chapman, Gary Ablett and Jimmy Bartel appear to have been a bit sore over the last five to six weeks but all of them continue to contribute and they will use this game as another chance to run some conditioning into their legs for finals.

In terms of the contest, their isn't much to analyse from a Geelong point of you, they have a clear edge in every single area and will canter to an easy win, it's all about that first final against the Saints.

For the Eagles, the last three weeks haven't been terrible, but they have come away without anything to show.

Two last minute defeats at the hands of the Lions and the Power confirmed they would win the spoon, and then last week they led the Kangaroos by a couple of goals early in the last term only to be overrun.

Sadly for them that is the classic sign of an ordinary side, the inability to run games out, and the tendency to get overtaken late in matches.

Mark LeCras is struggling for his best touch, he has four goals from his last three matches and will face a difficult assignment this week.

Callum Wilson came in and kicked four last week and he is the latest in what has been a revolving door through that Eagles forward line all season.

Ben McKinley must surely be playing elsewhere next year, most likely in Victoria I would suspect and Quinten Lynch is at the crossroads on a career that at times has promised much.

Natanui and Cox were ok last week and in all respects remain one of the more dangerous duos in the competition, but they just need a bit more inside presence in the middle of the ground.

Priddis, Embley etc provide a bit of experience, but the likes of Masten, Ebert, Scott Selwood and co need to mature and collectively the group has to sharpen up.

They are the worst team in the competition by foot and they simply slaughter the football far too much in non pressure situations.

John Worsfold could potentially coach his last game this weekend as the scrutiny continues to build on the favourite son.

This game represents one last chance for some pride in season 2010, but sadly the task is monumentally tough.

Geelong often do just what they have to do in these games and cruise around and win by around eight goals, but I suspect this saturday they will be searching for a kill.

Much has been said about the Pies form over the past two months, and their opponents for week one of the finals St.Kilda are gathering a bit of steam as well so I think Geelong will be keen to deliver another savage message to the competition.

Unfortunately for the Eagles, everywhere you look, they are powerless to stop it.

Geelong by 77 points.

Preview- Fremantle vs Carlton - Round 22

2010-08-24T00:20:00.001-07:00

Fremantle vs Carlton - Subiaco - Friday Night

Fremantle 6th - 12-9 - 103.75%
Carlton 8th - 11-10 - 108.78%

Undeniably the rounds biggest clash will take place this friday night when Fremantle host Carlton for the right to host a final in the first week of September.

Both of these sides are coming off defeats from Round 21 and for whoever loses, the following week becomes an extremely difficult assignment.

Fremantle rested up to ten big names and the end result was an embarrassing hiding at the hands of Hawthorn in Tasmania.

For Carlton, it was a dissapointing yet not horrendous performance against Geelong, but I was surprised how satisfied most were with the result.

Carlton had beaten the Cats twice in succession, both easily and whilst it was always going to be difficult, I'm surprised so many were proud of what was ultimately a hefty defeat with much at stake.

Some of the signs out of the game were pleasing with Lachie Henderson showing plenty, Robbie Warnock working well, Mitch Robinson providing a lot of life and Jarrod Waite strong and steady in attack.

However defensively was where a lot of the issues were. Geelong scored far too easily going forward with Podsiadly leading the way in attack.

The Blues are a bit like Essendon in many ways in that the gap between their best and worst can be substantial.

The barometer for this form gap is generally defensive pressure, much like it is with the Bombers who are famous for their tendency to get sliced open.

Carlton ran and linked up well all night, but produced just three tackles in the first quarter and only fourteen up until half time.

In that second quarter when Geelong started to win the stoppages, that lack of pressure was a telling factor with the Cats kicking six goals to one in twenty minutes to open the contest up.

Carlton fought hard in the third term, but were always up against it from there.

This week I'd suspect they would select Hampson and drop Jacobs due to Hampson's greater mobility on the wider ground against the returning Sandilands.

Carlton generally enjoy the space at the ground and should enjoy the freedom that the bigger surface will offer them.

For the Dockers last week was either a tactical triumph or a massive fail. Only time will be the judge of that one.

Fremantle entered Round 21 knowing they needed to win one of their last two games if they were to earn a home final in the first week.

Mark Harvey identified that many of his key players were feeling the pinch at the end of a long season and decided to rest them all, and put his eggs into one basket and roll the dice on a Round 22 assault on Carlton.

You can certainly understand his thinking, whilst a coach would never conceed defeat, given form and fitness they were probably unlikely to beat Hawthorn, and when you consider it's a six hour trip to Tasmania, spanning two flights and they would then have faced a six day break for this week's clash, you can see the logic.

It's a risk, and a massive roll of the dice, but I can totally understand why Harvey went down that path.

Part of the risk is Fremantle could make 13 changes which can certainly have a destabilising effect on a group, we have seen this happen in the past and Brett Ratten certainly alluded to it in his mid week presser.

Ratten questioned whether it was possible to flick a switch back on and find your form straight away and once again only time will be the judge of that.

Pavlich, Sandilands, Hill, Mundy and Hasleby are just five of the big names to return with the first two undoubtedly the most significant.

You would suspect Bower or Walker would get first crack at Pavlich if he plays forward, and maybe a Mitch Robinson could get a run with role if he plays through the middle.

The match promises to be entertaining with two highly attacking, fast and slick midfields who can struggle from time to time defensively.

But right at this point in time I think Carlton are travelling the better of the two sides, they are certainly the more settled and will relish the open space at Subiaco which is a ground they have played quite well on lately.

With Judd back on familiar soil I get the feeling he, Murphy, Gibbs, Carazzo, Simpson and the small forwards Garlett, Betts and more then likely Yarran will have too much class for a Dockers side who's season has gone pear shaped.

Freo took a risk, and in many ways I think it may work, as the boys should be fresher and sharper, and we need to remember this is a very good side when at their best.

But they haven't been at their best since about Round 12 and the Blues with the benefit of a little more experience will go a long way towards booking a home final.

Carlton by 15 points

Preview - Westcoast vs North Melbourne - Round 21

2010-08-19T23:10:00.000-07:00

Westcoast vs North Melbourne - Subiaco - Sunday

Westcoast 16th - 4-16- 77.53%
North Melbourne 9th - 9-11 - 84.88%

By the time the ball bounces on Sunday afternoon North Melbourne will know if they can still compete in the finals. For the Westcoast Eagles, their fate was officially sealed last week in a narrow loss to Port Adelaide. They will now officially claim their first ever wooden spoon.

The Kangaroos sit six points out of the eight with two games to go. If the eighth placed Hawks defeat Fremantle as expected, then the make up of the finals is complete. But if they somehow get rolled, North Melbourne are a huge chance to sneek up and claim a surprise september berth against the expectations of most.

Regardless of what happens on saturday afternoon though the game is a significant one in that it marks the 300th game of one of the Kangaroos favourite sons.

Brent Harvey will chalk up the wonderful milestone away from home, but in true form he said it was more important that his club kept it's september hopes alive rather then he bask in any personal glory.

His achievements will not be lost on his teammates though who will be eager to deliver a victory on his big day.

North Melbourne are an honest side, and as easy one to assess. They will get smashed by the top four, be competitive against the next four, and then beat everybody else.

Everytime they lead at half time they win, everytime they trail at halftime they lose, they are a pretty straight forward sort of team.

It has been a year of progress and they will in all likelihood end the season with eleven wins.

If somehow Hawthorn lose, the Roos will play off for a spot in the eight in a Sunday twilight fixture, a game the AFL tucked away assuming it would be of little signficance in the final round.

An area of concern for North Melbourne has been forward line pressure. They laid just two tackles inside fifty last week, and on the big ground at Subiaco you need to keep the ball inside your attacking zone as long as possible as you can get slaughtered on the rebound in the open space.

North Melbourne conceeded 10 goals from turnovers last week, but the pressure they will face this week won't be at the same level as was dished up by the Saints.

Lachie Hansen's star continues to rise, and the underrated value of Aaron Edwards has been evident as well. He has kicked at least two goals in a game eight times from twelve matches this year which is an indication of his importance, not just in terms of providing an option but also applying consistent scoreboard pressure.

The Daniel Well's announcement will be a nice boost for all concerned at the club with speculation mounting that he would be heading either to westcoast or up north to the Suns franchise.

Scott Thompson got sucked in a couple of times last week and the one missing piece of the puzzle for him is to smarten up a touch. He defends well, keeps his opponent honest and niggles the hell out of you, but occasionally you can knock him off his game.

For the Eagles the last two weeks have been so close but yet so far with two narrow defeats both coming in the last forty seconds of the game.

Their form hasn't been horrendous, but their inability to maintain posession of the footy has hurt them badly. On too many occasions they give the ball up meekly and had control of the tempo in the last minute of both games only to lose the footy under little pressure.

Their disposal efficiency in the last month is 66% which ranks 15th and last week was their worst of the season, the Kangaroos are very efficient on the counter attack and very good in setting up scoring opportunities through the method they use going forward and they will hurt them.

Over that same period the Eagles have produced 34 direct turnovers of which 19 have resulted in goals.

Mark LeCras has been well held over the past fortnight whilst young Andrew Strjik's star keeps rising with a couple of solid games.

With Todd Goldstein out this week, Cox and Natanui will be hoping too take advantage in the ruck against Hamish McIntosh who has lost his partner in crime.

Westcoast have some pace through the middle of the ground that can exploit teams, but they need to attack through the corridor, particularly at Subiaco.

The Eagles have scored just 71% of their goals from the centre corridor this season which ranks last.

When you play on the biggest ground in the country every second week, you can't afford to be playing that way.

Scott Thompson could be an option for LeCras this week, with Grima on Kennedy, although maybe Brady Rawlings might play down back on the frenchman.

At the other end Edwards, Hansen, Warren and Thomas provide a degree of versatility I don't think the Eagles can contain.

They may be a five goal better side at home, but it won't be enough to stop the Roos giving Boomer Harvey a much deserved win for his 300th game.

It may be close, but like the last fortnight, more then likely it will be no cigar for Woosha's men who will then turn their attention to a season finale.........against Geelong.

North Melbourne by 16 poinys

Preview - Essendon vs Brisbane - Round 21

2010-08-19T20:36:00.001-07:00

Essendon vs Brisbane - Etihad Stadium - Sunday

Essendon 13th - 7-13 - 81.09%
Brisbane 14th - 6-14 - 81.25%

Two of the seasons more dissapointing sides will lock horns at Etihad Stadium on Sunday in a clash of minimal significance in terms of ladder placings.

It is however a significant day for the one of the modern era's great players with Jonathan Brown set to line up in his 200th game.

The match is also important for the beseiged Matthew Knights who is under all sorts of pressure to keep his job for the 2011 season.

Essendon were atrocious last week against the red hot Magpies whilst the Lions had a dip against Adelaide, but ultimately fell short in a tight tussle.

This week the Lions will be straightened up by the return of their inspirational skipper and will give themselves something of a chance in this contest if they can provide the sort of run through the middle that they got for much of last week.

If you want an example of how much the Lions miss a fit and firing Jonathan Brown then the following stats will demonstrate.

The Lions score a goal from just 23% of their inside fifty entries this year, ranked last. They also score at an accuracy of 55%, ranked 14th and average just 6.5 goalkickers a game, ranked 13th.

Much is left to Brown who on one leg got them accross the line against the Eagles a fortnight ago.

He also has a terrific record against the Bombers at Etihad Stadium so if they can feed him some doesn't ball, he could play havoc with Essendon's vulnerable defence.

Pressure through the middle will be important for the Lions, as it is for everyone for that matter and this is an area that can improve.

They allow opposition sides to generate the second most disposals of any team in the competition and whilst their midfield is very attacking, it can certainly be opened up the other way.

Brennan, Power, Rischitelli and Black are capable on their day, with Clark and Leunberger in good form, and when you add Rockliff, Redden and young Harwood the Lions have a good mix of class, the lack of a genuine stopper, and a solid spread of inside midfielders has hurt them.

Injuries have played a big part this year for them, and you can tell their conditioning is an issue as the long season drags on with the Lions winning just two final quarters in the past few months.

For Essendon the last three weeks has been an example of their spasmodic nature with a wild fluctuation between their best and their worst.

They smashed the Saints three weeks ago and since then have been absolutely demolished by Carlton and Collingwood with Matthew Knights once again feeling the backlash from all and sundry.

Last week Essendon laid just 44 tackles and conceeded 85 points directly from turnovers.
This indicates that they were sloppy, but also didn't work hard enough defensively. It's one thing to be outgunned by an in form opponent, but you should be competitive and at least be able to fight your way through.

That was the most dissapointing factor for them on the night and it continues some alarming trends.
Essendon have conceeded 108 points a game since the start of 2008 which is the most of any side in the competition, and last week Collingwood took 17 marks inside fifty which is a combination of a vulnerable defence and a midfield that gets opened up.

They concede seven more inside fifties then they generate as well so perhaps evidence is mounting that they just aren't good enough.

Matthew Knights inherited a poor list, and has had a wretched run of injuries so I feel he deserves more time, but you'd be hoping some of these trends would start to be reversed and that doesn't seem to be happening.

In Essendon's favour this sunday is the fact they play at home against a team that doesn't appear to have the tools to exploit them.

Brisbane aren't applying enough pressure themselves, and are also sloppy going forward and as bad as Essendon can be, the Lions have been very poor for the best part of four months.

Michael Hurley should get first crack at Brown to further his development, whilst Mark McVeigh might get the dangerous Banfield.

At the other end Merrett will get Neagle, with Patfull to play on Monfries. McGrath would be the second option.

Daniel Rich might run with Stanton through the middle as Stanton is still highly vulnerable to the tag.

In a game that is a nervous one for tipsters I think Essendon will release the pressure valve this sunday with a solid home victory against the dissapointing Lions.

It might not be pretty, and an upset is possible, but Matthew Knights will sleep a little easier next week after his boys get the job done.

Essendon by 24 points

Preview - Port Adelaide vs Melbourne Round 21

2010-08-19T04:22:00.001-07:00

Port Adelaide vs Melbourne - Aami Stadium - Sunday

Port Adelaide - 12th - 8-12 - 78.58%
Melbourne -10th - 8-11-1 - 96.05%

In probably the most difficult game to assess of all the matches this round Melbourne venture to Aami Stadium to take on Port Adelaide.

Melbourne enter the clash having lost 14 straight games at Aami Stadium by an average of nine goals whilst Port Adelaide have won their past three matches at home.

On face value that would suggest Port Adelaide should get the chocolates, but pound for pound the Dees are a better side in most areas, the only issue is their ability to play well at a ground where almost none of their list would have experienced a win.

James McDonald plays his 250th and penultimate game for the Demons in something that will definitely give them a lift and despite their finals chances ending last week they still have much to play for.

Finishing the year in ninth with double figure wins would be a fantastic effort given where they have come from and would be a nice launching pad into 2010.

Last week was a terrific contest but ultimately it was probably experience and a touch more class that got Hawthorn over the line against the Dees, but the loss of Aaron Davey early in the game certainly didn't help their cause.

But as the game went on, it was the stoppage work that may have undone them. Hawthorn had 31 more contested posessions then Melbourne last week which was the Demons worst discrepancy this season.

They were also a bit sloppy coming out of defence with a kicking efficiency of just 76% in the back half which is an area they remain a bit vulnerable in.

Frawley, Bartram, Garland etc are all terrific defenders, but they can be a touch sloppy with their disposal. A lot of it relates to poise under pressure and I'm sure they'll be ok in time.

An area Melbourne have built their rise on this season has been pressure on the ball carrier.
They concede less marks inside fifty then anyone else, but also allow opponents to have a disposal efficiency of just 65% which ranks third in the competition.

The more they play in these games, the better they will get at it, and it's a loss that provides short term pain, but doesn't do the club any harm whatsoever.

For Port Adelaide, Matthew Primus has produced three consecutive Aami Stadium wins, with a horrendous defeat at Etihad thrown in the middle.

The result overall sits better then a pass and he remains favourite I would say for the job next year.

Save for a stinker in the next fortnight he would be in the box seat. Especially if Port win both of their games in the run home.

Last week wasn't pretty, but enthralling just the same, and it was essentially a battle of who would make the fewest mistakes.

After controlling the tempo for much of the night, Port Adelaide let the Eagles back in with four consecutive goals in the final term, only to pinch the win courtesy of a David Rodan point late in the contest.

Port Adelaide's problem is retaining posession of the ball. They have no problems winning it around the stoppages but over the past six weeks they have kept posession just 70% of the times they disposed of the footy which ranks last in the competition.

Melbourne are exceptional at slicing teams up on the rebound and are also terrific at pressuring the ball carrier so Port will need to be very careful.

Port Adelaide are also the competitions second lowest scoring side and are the least effective naturally when going forward as a result. Melbourne are very good at restricting sides when they go forward as they generally lose the inside fifty count, yet remain competitive.

Melbourne have won the inside fifties just twice in the past 16 weeks which is a remarkable stat, but it does highlight the style of game they play which is built largely on conservation and then counter attack.

I would expect Jay Schulz to be comfronted with James Frawley, and perhaps Westhoff to get Garland.

At the other end Chaplin will get Brad Green and Liam Jurrah might draw Carlisle or vice versa.

Melbourne are breaking down a few barriers at present and they will break down another one this sunday and win at their hoodoo ground.

Port boast solid wins in the last month over the Crows and Hawthorn (lets throw in westcoast for good measure), but Melbourne's style of footy poses difficulties to handle in regards to match ups and structure and if ever they are going to break through it will be this week against the plucky but unreliable power side.

Melbourne by 13 points

Preview - Sydney vs Western Bulldogs - Round 21

2010-08-18T22:45:00.000-07:00

Sydney vs Western Bulldogs - SCG - Saturday Night

Sydney-7th- 11-9 - 104.17%
Western Bulldogs -4th- 13-7- 129.51%

The chance for retribution will present itself to Rodney Eade's men this Saturday night when they face a Sydney side that has returned to it's trademark in the past fortnight.

That trademark has served them well for so many years under Paul Roos, and they will once again see September action in 2010.

This week though they face a Bulldogs side that was humiliated in no uncertain terms by the might of Geelong last week.

The Fremantle win last Saturday was a brave one for the Swans, who ventured to a place that generally is not a happy hunting ground and took down a side that had it's top four chances on the line.

Ben McGlynn is the signficant loss to come out of that game though with the gutsy small forward suffering a broken cheekbone that will sideline him until about the second week of september provided the Swans get there.

He has been a real barometer for them this year and they have struggled to get near their best form without him.

His ability to rack up 20 touches and two goals a game, as well as the forward pressure he applies makes him so important to their structure.

Daniel Hannebry probably secured himself the rising star award for this season with a sensational 38 posession game and he might even find himself tagged by Liam Picken this week.

Sydney's ability to retain posession is what makes them so strong. They have been more efficient then their opponents 15 times this season from 20 games and especially at the SCG they take control of the tempo of a game and are very difficult to beat.

Regardless of the financial ramifications, if Sydney host a final they need to move heaven and earth to get it at the SCG.

Part of the reason for this is their ability to control the stoppages. Sydney have won the contested posession count in all seven of their games at the SCG, they have also won the clearances and had a higher efficiency in every game at the venue this year.

With Mumford in the ruck and young Jack (who is the next Paul Kelly), Brett Kirk, Jude Bolton, Daniel Hannebry, Adam Goodes and co they just master the ball ups and boundary throw ins and also have the ability to restrict the room and time afforded to opposition sides.

The Bulldogs are one such side that thrives on space and run so the order of the day for the Swans will be to control those stops in play and essentially keep the ball off the Bulldogs as much as possible.

Sounds simple, but the Bulldogs have some fine stoppage players themselves, and they will be keen to atone for last week's howler against the Cats.

A 101 point loss is embarrassing whatever way you look at it and whilst it's fair to say the side was battling illness it doesn't excuse that sort of margin.

Just what effect the flu had on the boys from the kennel is impossible to measure, but it cannot account for that sort of discrepancy in every facet of the game.

Cooney, Hudson and a few others didn't play, and then Lake hurt a hip early in the game but Geelong had three or four of their best side at least not available as well through injury.

Last week the Bulldogs produced a staggering 29 clanger kicks, the most ever recorded at Etihad Stadium and also went around with a disposal efficiency of 56% the worst they have registered in three years.

In the past three weeks they have also been out tackled, averaging 15 less then their opponents in that time which could be due to the boys being a touch off the pace, or perhaps simply the work rate dropping away.

They have produced 12 less Inside fifties then the Swans on their last six visits to the SCG and have lost five of those matches along the way.

If any of those trends continue this week, they will lose again, but will they?

After a week like this the Bulldogs should be fired up, with Rodney Eade putting the acid on his players to respond with a bruising two hour session on Wednesday afternoon and he also forecast up to five changes when the sides are announced shortly.

Shaun Higgins will miss at least 2-3 with a calf injury but he is also battling a mystery illness that could end his season.

Cooney and Hudson will return, whilst Lake is 50/50 and Barry Hall is now battling the flu bug that plagued his teammates last week so all is not perfect by any means.

I would expect Grundy or Richards to take Hall if he plays, which he still should and it will be fascinating to see the response the premiership star gets on his first return to the SCG.

Jarrod Grant remains in good form, whilst Brad Johnson will survive in the team (as he should) and provide a headache as well.

Giansiracusa is in terrific form right now after a fairly indifferent season and could be the X factor. He will most likely draw Malceski or Kennelly for company.

At the other end Brian Lake's absence will hurt if he misses, but not as much as it would against some sides with the Swans not overly tall in attack.

The match up for Goodes as usual is the difficult one with perhaps Dale Morris to get him if he plays forward, and maybe Boyd head to head if he plays in the middle given his history as a tagger.

The Bulldogs have more class in the middle and this might be decisive given the Swans clearance strength this year.

If you win your fair share of ball against them you can break them down and the Bulldogs are more then capable of it.

We need remember the form of the Bulldogs prior to that Geelong belting had been super so that is probably more a reflection of their capabilities.

A lot of factors suggest Sydney should win this, but against the real top echelon sides they have been just a fraction off the pace and Mcglynn is a huge loss.

The Bulldogs are also stung badly by the events of last week and will be eager to make a statement ahead of a long and hopefully for their sake rewarding finals campaign.

There will not be a lot in this game at all, and it could go either way, but back the class and poise of the Dogs to send a reminder that they aren't done yet.

Bulldogs by 4 points

Preview - Collingwood vs Adelaide - Round 21

2010-08-18T11:13:00.001-07:00

Collingwood vs Adelaide - MCG - Saturday Night

Collingwood 1st - 16-3-1 - 145.79%
Adelaide 11th - 8-12 - 92.58%

Another saturday night assigment comfronts the rampaging Magpies this week who take on an Adelaide side nearing the finish line in a long and trying season.

For the Crows this week has been another emotionally testing one with Nathan Bock becoming the first league player to put his hand up and say he is going to the Gold Coast next year.

Both club and player agreed to part ways immediately and Neil Craig made no secret of his dislike for the culture he believes these new clubs are going to create.

If the Crows were in finals contention, it would be interesting to see if Craig would have cut ties with Bock, I doubt it, but I do understand the decision given where they are at.

Phil Davis will no doubt get a reprieve and continue his development on what has been a very good season personally.

What it means though is that Bock will join Goodwin, Burton, Mcleod, Vince, Knights, Edwards and Otten on the sidelines for the next fortnight which leaves the Crows with a significant experience void.

The positive is it gives them the chance to keep developing kids, but it's hard to expect much in the way of results with these guys out.

Vince and Knights went down last week which makes the win over the Lions a brave one, but the loss particularly of Vince will leave a big hole in a midfield that will take on arguably the competition's best this week.

Part of Adelaide's problem this year has been the pressure teams have put on their outlet player.

What I mean by that is the Crows strength over recent times was dropping a player off the back of a contest almost as a quarterback and using that player as an outlet.

Teams are closing down that option and forcing the Crows to try and run through an opposition zone.

As a result they are using the ball under a lot more pressure and this season they rank 13th for disposal efficiency.

They are also handballing more then recent years which is a sign of pressure as well.

Defensively the Crows remain quite strong, allowing opposition sides to retain posession of the ball just 40% of the times they go Inside fifty, ranked first in the past seven weeks.

Conversely though the Pies have been superb all year at restricting opposition entries and it's hard to see Adelaide managing to restrict the Pies fleet of options, but also punching through their defence with the inconsistent Tippet, and the lively Porplysia, Dangerfield, Henderson, Douglas and Walker (if he plays).

Collingwood continue to march from strength to strength and demolished under rival last week to tune of 98 points.

It is hard not to start thinking about flags if you support the black and white army, and the challenge of keeping everyone's feet on the ground is a very difficult one given the hype this club attracts.

Selection dilemmas aplenty too for Mick Malthouse with four big names in line for a return after missing last week.

The debate over Darren Jolly's fitness might open the door for Josh Fraser, but as the week rolls on it appears unlikely that the 1999 number one draft pick will play his 200th game this week or even this season.

Luke Ball will return, with Goldsack and Reid to boost the squad that has an abundance of riches at present.

Collingwood have taken an incredible 310 marks from opposition kicks this season, ranked number one in the competition and this is a demonstration of the pressure they apply on teams all over the ground.

They are now executing the full ground press that St.Kilda performed so well last year. They have clicked all aspects of their game together and the only query is on whether they can sustain it through a long september campaign.

Collingwood face an Adelaide side that is very good defensively, but are coming off a game where they took 25 marks Inside fifty, and again kicked in excess of 20 goals.

If a team is to punch through this now Bockless defence, it will be the Pies.

Presti will get the job on Kurt Tippett, Toovey will take the Porpoise, or perhaps it will be Heath Shaw whilst Ben Reid might get Henderson or Dangerfield.

At the other end, Rutten is a good match up for Dawes, whilst Scott Stevens will really have his hands full with the in form Travis Cloke and without the support of Bock it could spell trouble.

Johncock, Reilly and co will have to shut down the fleet of runners pushing through the arc for Collingwood and try as they might it will be an avalanche of ball coming down and it's hard to see them stemming the tide.

Collingwood are motoring from strength to strength and with the depth of players out for the Crows, this could once again get ugly.

For Adelaide it looks as if their decline won't be to severe as some of these kids look quite promising, but right now at the end of a long season they are ripe for the plucking.

Collingwood will enjoy another feast in the lead up to a September possibly full of riches.

Collingwood by 57 points

Preview - Hawthorn vs Fremantle -Round 21

2010-08-18T00:25:00.000-07:00

Hawthorn vs Fremantle - Aurora Stadium - Saturday

Hawthorn 8th - 10-9-1 - 104.55%
Fremantle 5th - 12-8 - 110.36%

Chilly Tasmania will play host to a crucial clash on saturday afternoon between a couple of finalists that could shape the make up of games in the first week.

Hawthorn are 95% accross the line to play finals and a win this saturday will lock that away completely whilst Fremantle are stuttering badly in the run home, losing another game at Subiaco last week, this time to the desperate Swans.

For Fremantle, they need to fight hard to hold on to their home final. They still also have a statistical chance of finishing top four so the motivation will be strong.

If Fremantle lose their last two, they could drop as low as 8th and have to travel to Victoria in the first week of the finals, an assignment which would spell disaster given their current form.

If they can pinch just one win in the last fortnight they will play Carlton, Sydney or Hawthorn in the first week of the finals at Subiaco.

The problem for Fremantle is that they have so many players out of the side at present and have also hit the wall in regards to their young players momentum.

Last week was a tough hard fought contest against Sydney, a game that could have gone either way and Freo were far from terrible but missed a real chance to put pressure on the Bulldogs in fourth.

This week they travel to a venue they won at in controversial circumstances in 2006, and this is their first visit to Tasmania since that famous day.

Fremantle's prospects on the road are slim given recent form, with their average losing margin in the past three away games being 52 points.

Their home form has dropped away as well, but some early season progress made on the road has fallen away badly in recent weeks.

Some of the major concerns have been that they are unable to hault opposition momentum.

In the past five weeks, Fremantle have conceeded an average of 407 disposals a game, the most of any side, with a staggering 69% of them uncontested.

Some of the young exciting names in the midfield will have very bright futures, and to that end, Fremantle can't be shattered with the fall away, but right now they have hit a road block on their season.

They are also being stifled with their run and forced to overuse the ball in tight rather then playing their hard running, long kicking game. They have gone from 6th in the comp for long kicks per game, to 15th, but the large aurora ground combined with Hawthorn's lack of blistering leg speed means they will have a bit more freedom.

For the Hawks, last week was a virtual elimination final and they produced a gutsy win over the plucky young demons to exercise some of the pain from last year's loss to Essendon in a near identical game.

When push came to shove, they had more class and experience and produced an impressive last term to pull away and all but secure a place in September.

They have Collingwood in the last game though, so a loss to Fremantle would put them in serious danger with the Kangaroos still in the mix if they can win both their games from here.

Hawthorn's win last week arrested an alarming trend with the Hawks belted in contested posessions over the previous fortnight.

In fact last week was their best contested ball differential in a game this season which is a key area ahead of September.

They also smacked Melbourne in the Inside fifites, and defensively held up well against an effective forward combination that had been in good form.

Over the past five weeks, Hawthorn have conceeded the least disposals in the competition but have allowed teams to play at a very high efficiency which indicates their pressure skills have dropped away.

That hints what I thought was the case last week in that they were a little tired after 3 months of high intensity footy.

In the past four weeks, Hawthorn have retained posession from 71% of posessions which ranks 14th, but they face a Fremantle side that has been pretty loose over recent weeks and they should enjoy a bit more freedom.

Tasmania has been a happy hunting ground for the Hawks, particularly against non victorian sides and they have lost just twice to "interstate sides" in the years they have been down there.

That won't change this week with the Hawks boasting a forward line that is too potent for the undermanned fremantle defence, a midfield with far too much clearance power and class and a defence that should be able to contain the Dockers.

With Aaron Sandilands likely to miss again, Fremantle will not carry a ruck supremacy into the game and will need Tarrant or Mayne to return to help straighten them up, with both unlikely.

Stratton should get first crack at Pavlich, whilst Schoenmakers will get Bradley if he goes forward.

Fremantle will probably put Grover on Franklin, with McPharlin likely to get Roughead. Cyril Rioli will return for the Hawks as the X Factor and his class will be a vital inclusion.

Hawthorn will secure a place in the eight on saturday afternoon with a solid win over the classy yet tired Dockers.

Hawthorn by 28 points

Preview- St.Kilda vs Richmond - Round 21

2010-08-17T12:10:00.000-07:00

St.Kilda vs Richmond - Etihad Stadium - Saturday

St.Kilda 3rd - 15-6-1 - 124.51%
Richmond 15th - 6-14 - 71.44%

On Saturday afternoon Ben Cousins will play his penultimate AFL game in what looms as a huge test for his young tiger teammates against one of the competitions best teams St.Kilda.

Signs of fatigue have been evident in recent weeks for Richmond with a fade out late against Melbourne, followed by probably their worst loss of the season last week against the Blues.

They were again strong in the clearances which has been a big area for them all year, but they lost a bit of that ferocity and aggression at the contest.

With young legs this can happen. The ability to push to the next contest and keep chasing and harassing can be a struggle as a long season drags on but they owe it to themselves to finish this year with a strong last fortnight to do justice to their efforts.

They haven't undone their hard work by any means in the last few weeks, but fans would have felt a touch dissapointed no doubt.

Jack Riewoldt is being double and sometimes triple teamed at present and this was always going to happen after his red hot patch a month or so ago. The problem now is that the Tigers don't have a mature key forward to help him out. They will in time, just not yet as Griffiths is injured, Jayden Post is still raw and Mitch Morton is a) not big enough and b) being groomed elsewhere.

Jake King continues to perform as a small forward kicking goals and also restricting an opposition runner off half back. He might get Jason Gram this week.

Brett Deledio is also copping a fair bit of attention as teams put homework into his run off halfback, and also that of the skipper Chris Newman.

It's all part of the learning process for the young emerging Tigers who have a ton of upside, they just need to mature a bit, and develop some bigger bodies.

Last time they met St.Kilda, Richmond had a staggering 19 more clearances then the Saints, and for much of the evening they made life quite difficult for the reigning Grand Finalists.

The blueprint this week needs to be similar. Daniel Jackson didn't play that night, he will tag probably Montagna like he did last year, but he along with Martin, Cousins, Tuck and the returning Trent Cotchin will go against Hayes, Dal Santo, Goddard, Montagna, Jones and co for the Saints.

St.Kilda appear to have the better names, but the Tigers strength is clearance work and St.Kilda will be well aware of what happened last time in that third term.

For St.Kilda last week was the first time they have won the clearances since Round 14 which arrested a trend that was starting to get quite alarming.

The next fortnight is all about building momentum and further developing their game for another assault on a flag commencing with a likely first final against Geelong.

They have secured top four which was the prime objective, and will be hoping to use the plucky Tigers, and the dogged Adelaide next week at Aami Stadium to get the structure right and the "Saints footy" model functioning well.

The last two weeks have seen a greater spread of goal kickers, more flair and a bit more freedom of ball movement which is more like St.Kilda's model.

They are actually quite a high scoring and attacking team when executing the game plan properly.

There is no doubt the style is built on defence, but it is only when they are tied down or struggling that they look cumbersome, as most sides do.

Michael Gardiner should return this week, and Steven Baker is probably the only other member of the best 22 to return for the finals, meaning they have a fairly fit list to choose from.

Zac Dawson is another who will be considered, but that may be a horses for courses scenario.

Justin Koschitzke showed some better signs last week in terms of his contested marking and attack on the ball, but he still needs to get his hands on the pill a bit more and hit the scoreboard consistently.

They cannot win the flag without him, so he must find peak form if they are to have a legitimate chance against the Cats, Pies, Dogs and Hawks.

Nick Riewoldt was the other big positive last week with seven goals from twelve shots and also the good games of Sam Fisher and Sam Gilbert who seem to have re-discovered their run off half back.

This week I'd expect Blake to get first crack at Riewoldt, with Fisher an option if pace becomes a problem and probably Gwilt as option three.

King v Gram will be interesting, with Gilbert perhaps getting Morton or Post if they float accross half forward.

At the other end, Will Thursfield might return and play on Nick Riewoldt as he had a reasonable game on him a few years back, Moore or McGuane should take Kozi, but it is the Milne match up they will need to sort out.

Milne has kicked 7, 4 and 5 against the Tigers in his last three meetings with Newman and Edwards both getting a gig on him in recent times.

Perhaps Jake King might have to go back, or maybe the skipper will get another go at it.

Clinton Jones will probably tag Martin I dare say in the middle which is a huge wrap for the young kid.

Richmond have to be respected given their flair, pace and clearance work, but St.Kilda are building for September, have the more mature bodies and the greater spread of talent and should win their third game in a row quite comfortably.

For Ben Cousins, this is the second last time he will take to the field and fans should get along to pay tribute to one of the modern era's finest footballers. A fact I hope is remembered much more then his off field troubles.

Expect him to play a big game this week as he will be making every post a winner in the next two weeks before heading off into the sunset.

Expect his teammates to lift for him too as they love him to bits, but that probably won't be enough to topple one of the flag fancies who need to maintain their momentum over a crucial fortnight leading into September.

St.Kilda by 40 points

Preview - Geelong vs Carlton Round 21

2010-08-17T07:13:00.000-07:00

Geelong vs Carlton - Etihad Stadium - Friday Night

Geelong 2nd - 15-5 - 146.95%
Carlton 6th - 11-9 - 111.76%

Friday night football will play host to another mouth watering contest between the champs in Geelong, and the rejuvenated young Blues.

For Carlton this presents another challenge against a top side, and for the Cats it's the chance to turn the tables on a team that has had a rare stranglehold on them with the Blues winning the past two meetings of these two sides.

The last fortnight has been a real coaching triumph for Brett Ratten who made the tough calls and is being rewarded for it.

He made no secret of his dissapointment after the Collingwood game with accusations of blokes not putting their head over the ball and he responded by dropping four players.

The blokes he brought in had a real crack, competed hard and got the results. The Blues won by 76 points and responded in the best possible way.

Two of the players dropped were Andrew Walker and Brad Fisher and they played absolute blinders in the VFL with one getting 47 touches and the other kicking ten goals and it posed a selection dilemma for the Carlton coaching staff.

Ratten decided however to stick to his guns, and made no change to the side that demolished Essendon and the end response was an 89 point win over the Tigers.

Ratten made tough calls each week and it has paid off, but more importantly his players responded.

Marc Murphy has had a ripping fortnight after a poor year, Judd is flying as usual, but Grigg, Robinson, Henderson, Hadley and Bower have all added some significant improvement to the side in the last few weeks and this has helped take them forward.

You see how well that forward line can function when the midfield gets on top and provides good supply.

They didn't work hard enough for several weeks but when they are on, they have a midfield that borders on elite.

They remain suscpetible to pressure, and Essendon and Richmond provided next to none, so this week will be a nice challenge.

The forward line is small so when the midfield is pressured into pumping it in their long they can be susceptible, and Geelong are the best in the business at dealing with the long ball inside fifty.

Carlton tore Geelong apart with their pace back in Round 5, and it was the amount of goals from midfielders pushing forward, and their quality smalls that undid Geelong and they must beat them the same way.

That is easier said then done though as the Cats issued one heck of a statement last week.

A 101 point win over another top four side is a fairly significant message to the competition that this team is very much still at the top of it's game and capable of pushing for a fourth consecutive grand final.

The loss to Collingwood shook them up a bit, and with certain people, namely Tim Lane, questioning their future they were always going to be breathing fire.

The Bulldogs no doubt felt the pinch, with several players ill but this is an impossible variable to measure in terms of it's total effect, but one thing we can say is, it does not work out to 101 points!

Corey Enright played with the most freedom he has in several weeks, Andrew Mackie marshalled the defence superbly, Tom Hawkins found some touch in the ruck and the big J-Pod played a very good game against quality opposition away from Skilled Stadium which was very pleasing.

In the space of 40 minutes, Geelong had 74 more disposals, 14 more inside fifties, 11 more clearances and kicked 13.4.82 to 0.1.1. That is a total route and demonstration that when on song, Geelong remain the most devastating team in the league.

Daniel Menzel and Jeremy Laidler showed a bit as well as young players coming into the side so that is a good sign for the Cats future.

Cameron Ling, Joel Corey, Harry Taylor and Tom Lonergan should be back in the mix for selection this week which presents interesting dilemmas for Mark Thompson and his men.

Some, in particular Robert Walls have questioned whether Cameron Ling is in their best 22 anymore, but he clearly is, particularly in September.

One of Collingwood's shortcomings in last years finals campaign was the lack of a shutdown player in the middle.

The Cats had Ling, the Saints had Jones and the Bulldogs had Picken but the Pies didn't have someone capable of putting the brakes on one of the opposition's prime movers.

Geelong need Cameron Ling for his experience, his toughness and also his ability to tag Pendlebury, Dal Santo, Boyd, Hodge etc if required in finals.

It is very difficult to win finals if you don't at least do a lockdown job on someone and Ling is an absolute certainty to play.

I would expect Scarlett to get Waite, Harry Taylor to go with Henderson, Lonergan to be left out due to match ups ( the cats went in too tall last time these sides met), and some homework to be put into the trio of Betts, Yarran and Garlett with Mackie, Enright, Hunt and co to get the job on these boys and try to hurt them as always going the other way.

At the other end, Jamison will get J-Pod with the more mobile Bower likely to get Mooney.

Joseph should tag Ablett as he has done reasonably well in the past whilst Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson, Grigg and Scotland going head to head with Ablett, Chapman, Selwood, Corey, Bartel and Kelly in the middle.

As good as the Blues are, the Cats still hold a key edge here not just offensively, but with the ability to be accountable going the other way.

Geelong have a greater propensity to break down Carlton's fast running game then the Blues do conversely for the Cats.

One thing the last two losses to the Blues have had in common has been the MCG. The Blues were able to use the space inside fifty to expose the Cats defence once hitting up on the rebound.
This game is at Etihad Stadium a venue at which Geelong are probably the best side we have ever seen.

In the past three years the Cats have averaged 128 points a game, and produced an average winning margin of 66 points.

They have a great record everywhere, but that is a phenomenal stat for the Cats at the indoor surface.

Right now they have a bit too much class for an improved Carlton side who are safe in the eight, but could finish as high as fifth if results go their way.

But a win over the Cats will not be forthcoming for Brett Ratten's men on friday night. They have the class to make this close, but Geelong could well be a sleeping giant that has just awoken and their depth of talent in all areas remains a cut above the boys from Visy Park, and win number 16 will be forthcoming on a season that still promises to further write this team's name in history.

Geelong by 32 points

North Melbourne vs St.Kilda Round 20

2010-08-13T00:28:00.001-07:00

North Melbourne vs St.Kilda - Etihad Stadium - Sunday

North Melbourne -9th - 9-10 - 86.71%
St.Kilda - 3rd - 13-5-1 - 121.84%

The Kangaroos enter Round 20 with their destiny in their own hands as they search for an upset victory that could pave the way for a finals berth.

With all the hype around Melbourne, and the headlines captured by Hawthorn and Carlton in recent weeks, the Kangaroos have quietly snuck up to 9th and could potentially be in the eight come sunday night if they win and the hawks lose.

Last week was one of their most complete performances of the season with a crushing victory over an admittedly dissapointing Fremantle.

They dominated the stoppages, smashed Freo in space with nearly 100 more uncontested posessions and put through 19 goals in a polished and slick performance.

Hamish McIntosh and Todd Goldstein are probably the best ruck combination in the game at present and they fully exploited the absence of Aaron Sandilands from the Freo line up and had 39 hit outs and 42 posessions between them.

St.Kilda will provide a bit more resistance at the stoppages but will be missing main man Michael Gardiner in the ruck so it is an area the Kangaroos can focus on.

They have had real problems against top sides this year North Melbourne, with a 71 point loss to the Bulldogs just a fortnight ago the most recent in a spate of beltings against the top four to six teams in the competition.

Brent Harvey is in some of the best form of his career at present, regularly racking up big numbers and pushing forward to hit the scoreboard each week, and whilst he is the old (with all due respect), it is the young that must be pleasing Roos fans.

Swallow, Greenwood, Garlett, Bastinac and Cunnington have all had excellent years and you can throw in Liam Anthony who has missed much of the season with a shoulder injury.

Goldstein is only young as well so when people talk of emerging sides in the competition and mention Melbourne and Richmond, then surely the Kangaroos must be right up there as well.

When they play their best footy, it's when they are taking the game on and using their pace. They have played on 51% of the time from a mark in the past seven weeks and whilst it can occasionally bring them unstuck against top sides who pressure them, they simply have to persist with it as it suits the group and as they grow with experience, they will gain the necessary composure to eliminate errors.

One area North Melbourne have struggled in is clearances. They had just 21 last week, despite the big win which was the lowest of the round by any side. They have also had 29 less centre clearances then their opponents this season, ranked last.

They can't afford to relinquish control in this area to the Saints who destroyed them in Round 2.

For the Saints, last week was a pleasing return to form even if it came against a deplorable Port Adelaide side.

The pleasing thing for the Saints was they had 13 goalkickers, nearly 500 disposals, got plenty of run out of Gilbert and Fisher and also restricted Port Adelaide's number of forward fity entries.

It was a return to "saints footy" that would have put a smile on Ross Lyon's face.
They were smart when going forward, and used plenty of options rather then simply going long to Riewoldt at all times which has got them into trouble.
They won seven in a row without the big centre half forward, and found many avenues to goal and if they are too win the flag, they need to keep bringing these options into the game as versatility is required against the best defences.

They will face more resistance then they did last week, that's for sure, but it was a step in the right direction with September close.

North Melbourne will keep you honest at all times, and it presents another good challenge for St.Kilda in the lead up to finals.

With the faltering form of Fremantle, they should be safe in the top four, but need to hit september in good form.

St.Kilda has won it's inside fifty count by at least 15 against the Roos in their last 5 meetings, and over the past month have recorded a disposal efficicency of 78% which is the best in the competition, surprising given they have won just once in that time.

Nick Riewoldt played his best game too date since his return to the side and he has an excellent record against North Melbourne. Expect Grima to get him, Thompson to play on Milne like he did last time, and Pratt or Firito to get Koschitzke.

Adam Schneider is in probably career best form at present, so will need close checking.

At the other end Lachie Hansen might draw Gwilt or Fisher, with Edwards likely to get Blake and Warren to get whoever is left over from the Hansen match up, either Gwilt or Fisher.

Jones will re acquiant himself with Brent Harvey who had just five touches last time these sides met.

Greenwood will most likely tag Dal Santo, whilst Brady Rawlings might get Montagna.

The Kangaroos have improved a lot since Round 2, so they won't meet the same fate they did that night, and will be desperate on Sunday given they are essentially playing for their season.

If they lose this game, they will need other results to fall their way if they are to play finals this year which is not an ideal situation.

Their midfield is classy but young and they still have a few blokes out of the side who could have provided a bit more depth and experience.

St.Kilda will take plenty out of what they did last week and will continue to build for september with a win this weekend.

Defensively the Roos are developing but will need to restrict St.Kilda around the stoppages to avoid the supply coming down, because if the saints go down their often enough they have enough class to punch through.

Even with a few blokes out down back I think the Saints defence will be able to deny North Melbourne's forwards enough opportunities to kick a winning score.

Expect this to be competitive for a lot of the day, but the Saints are a bit too mature, experienced and classy at this stage for the emerging Roos.

St.Kilda by 27 points

Preview - Hawthorn vs Melbourne - Round 20

2010-08-12T19:02:00.001-07:00

Hawthorn vs Melbourne - MCG - Sunday

Hawthorn - 8th - 9-9-1 - 103.49%
Melbourne - 10th - 8-10-1 - 97.09%

The MCG will host a virtual elimination final on Sunday afternoon when the Hawks take on the rapidly improving young Demons.

For Melbourne, another week saw more improvement and another four points against the plucky Tigers.

The game was tight for three quarters, and given Melbourne had played on a humid night at the Gabba a week earlier, many were backing Richmond to finish the stronger.

But it was the young Demons who kicked six goals to two in the last quarter to run away with the game.

Liam Jurrah played his best game for the season, possibly for the club with four goals from eight shots, Jack Watts played a good second half whilst Wonaemirri, Green and Dunn all played well.

Melbourne's forward line is extremely under regarded at present. They had just 47 inside fifties last week for 16 goals which is a great conversion.
In fact accross the season they are averaging just 43 inside fifties a game, ranked last in the league but in the past seven weeks they are the 5th highest scoring team going around.

The Dees are a very efficient side, they have the highest kick to handball ratio in the league, the best conversion rate whilst inside fifty, and they take more uncontested marks inside the arc then anyone else.

They spread from contests well and push into space and back themselves by foot. The likes of Scully, Sylvia, Jones, Bruce and Davey are all in top form and the rapid maturing of this team is something quite special.

They have some work to do no doubt, and there is a long way to go, but the spectre of finals is something that must excite all Demons fans given the pain of the past four years.

They probably cannot make the eight unless they win all three of their remaining games though which means they cannot miss a beat.

For the Hawks, the past fortnight has been horrendous given the progress made since Round 7, and thoughts have shifted from winning a flag to just making the eight, something which is by no means assured.

Melbourne and the Kangaroos sit below them on the table but both are in good form, have reasonable draws (don't face Collingwood like the Hawks) and have lifted with the scent of September action.

The problem for Hawthorn seems to be that they have hit a wall after several weeks of high intensity.

The issue was their start, when you give yourselves so much work to do just to get your season back on an even kiel it means you have to play every week at high intensity, every week is must win and it is impossible to sustain that over a 13-17 week period.

They did wonderfully well to get back into the season but the Saints draw seems to have knocked the stuffing out of them.

They now must win the next two games starting Sunday to put themselves back in the finals mix where, whilst they cannot win the flag, they could still cause some grief due to their experience.

An example of a tiring side is their ability to break clear into space, and in the past five weeks Hawthorn are ranked last for uncontested posessions.

Around the stoppages they have been very good, with a number of big bodies, but accross the board they lack a bit of leg speed which does expose them when they are bit off the boil.

Defensively the Hawks are still vulnerable, but the rolling zone they used so well in 2008 has been quite effective this year too. They allow sides just 42 forward entries a game, which is second only to St.Kilda this season.

Melbourne's forward line is unpredictable and can pose problems though so they will need to be sharp.

Campbell Brown should get Jurrah, Stratton will take Dunn, Gilham on Green, Guerra on Wonaemirri are some of the other possible match ups.

The rapidly emerging James Frawley should get Franklin, with Matthew Warnock a chance to return and play on Roughead.

Cyril Rioli's pace will be missed again, but Brown's return should provide some hardness.

Melbourne are better in space, Hawthorn are better in close.

Both have potent forward lines, that test you in different ways, and Melbourne should hold an edge in the ruck with Jamar.

Momentum is a significant thing in football and the young dees have it at the moment.

Hawthorn are showing some concerning signs that perhaps they have hit a bit of a roadblock and for that reason I think the Dees might get the job done in this one.

With their midfield runners all up and about and using the ball with confidence, their forward line causing problems and the competitions in form defender James Frawley I think Melbourne have enough to win this.

The pressure of such a big game, and the lure of finals pose a challenge for them though. Never has this group been in such a position and it will be interesting to see how they handle it.

I think they'll be just fine and the excitement levels will intensify around these young Demons come Sunday night.

Melbourne by 10 points

Preview - Brisbane vs Adelaide - Round 20

2010-08-12T05:23:00.000-07:00

Brisbane vs Adelaide at the Gabba - Sunday

Brisbane - 14th - 6-13- 80.59%
Adelaide - 11th - 7-12 - 91.74%

Brisbane and Adelaide will compete for nothing more then bragging rights this Sunday in what still promises to be a fascinating game.

For the Adelaide Crows, a long and arduous season is finally over with last week's loss confirming they will not play finals in 2010.

The recovery has been a brave one, and they were stiff on the weekend, but the reality is they left themselves too much to do and like the Hawks you can sense a bit of fatigue.

Last week was a game they would have won a month ago, but they just didn't have the run in the legs or sharpness to break through against a solid Bulldogs side who was under duress.

A few times just one last link in the chain would break down, and they would turn the ball over with one too many handballs.

They perhaps didn't play the conditions all that smartly either, particularly in the second half when they had the better of the contest in general play, but pushed a couple of numbers back when they should have rolled the dice.

The Dogs were ripe for the picking, but they need to be commended for keeping the Crows out.

Chris Knights returned and was solid, the Porpoise and Walker were dangerous as always whilst Tippett found the conditions tough.

These guys provide an unpredictable mix that could stretch the Lions provided they get enough clean ball down there.

In saying that though, the Crows have scored a goal from just 21% of inside fifties, but that's largely due to innacuracy. In the past three weeks the Crows have kicked 9.15, 11.14 and 7.11 which means they are going at around 43% over that period which is unnaceptable.

The Crows are generally good travellers but have won just one of their past eight games interstate, and have failed to top the ton in all of them.

They have improved in clearance work though, but they are the most tackled midfield group in the competition which I think is brought about by a bit of hesitation when going forward. Often they try to run the ball down the ground by hand, ala Geelong rather then backing their forwards one out.

They have a solid forward line, they just confuse themselves at times with their own build ups.

For the Lions last week was a gutsy win with the big skipper on one leg. It may have been a touch fortunate but one they deserved all the same.

The second quarter was some of their finest footy for a long while and whilst they were only playing the Eagles it is something they can build on.

Jonathan Brown's selection will probably decide this result given the lack of scoring versatility beyond the big man.

With Fevola out, Cornelius has a chance to step up, but he is very raw. Banfield, Brennan and the midfield group shoulder a fair bit of scoring responsibility to support Brown, and if the captain doesn't play, I don't think the Lions can produce the score.

If he does though, they probably win as not only will he snag four or five, but he brings other players into the contest.

In the past nine weeks, the Lions are the lowest scoring team in the competition, averaging just 67 points a game.

They are also averaging a score from just 46% of forward entries and most of that is attributed to sloppy ball use.

The Lions disposal efficiency has been poor all year, but the Crows aren't the best pressure side in the comp through the middle so the Lions should enjoy a bit more freedom.

I think Rutten will get Brown if he plays, and Cornelius will probably have Bock for company.

Banfield will have to be tight on Johncock to restrict his attack off half back.

Merrett will get Tippett who has been down on form, Patfull should get Walker, whilst Mcgrath will try to do a number on the porpoise like he did on Mark LeCras last week.

If form and method is anything to go by this will be a tight low scoring affair.

Black, Power, Rischitelli and Brennan in the middle will face the likes of Mackay, Vince, Van Berlo and Thompson and there isn't a lot in that midfield battle, I just think the Lions are a five goal better side at home, and the tired crows have lost their travel legs this season and might not have enough in the tank to topple the desperate home side keen to finish the season with some momentum.

After the year from hell, the Lions will win two in a row and push themselves clear of the bottom two.

.......Provided Brown plays.

Brisbane by 12 points

Preview - Port Adelaide vs Westcoast - Round 20

2010-08-11T21:47:00.000-07:00

Port Adelaide vs Westcoast - Aami Stadium - Saturday Night

Port Adelaide 13th - 7-12- 77.84%
West Coast 16th - 4-15 - 76.90%

The Power and the Eagles will lock horns on saturday night in one of the more irrelevant games of the season.

Westcoast are just about assured of a wooden spoon, whilst Port Adelaide's mathematical finals chances dissapeared last week in a horrendous display at Etihad.

The fact I am even mentioning finals in the same sentence as Port is farcical, but some still held out hope. Even that hope is now gone, but for Matthew Primus the next three weeks are about an audition for the future.

Last week could not have helped his cause one little bit, and given the progress made in previous weeks it was a horrible outcome.

A 94 point loss to St.Kilda after two really good weeks was embarrassing and it represented the reason why Mark Williams lost his job in the first place.

This team has a tendency to roll over far too easily and for Primus it would have been extremely dissapointing given the spirit shown in his first few games at the helm.

The wins over Adelaide and Hawthorn had lifted spirits and it was the commitment shown in those games that would have stood out to everyone.

But in trademark Port Adelaide fashion, it dissapeared as quickly as it arrived and the resistance was nil against the Saints.

St.Kilda are one of the competitions top sides admittedly, and they played extremely well but this next three weeks is super important for Primus, and several Port players at the crossroads.

They will enjoy being back at home this week against the worst team in the league but the Eagles are at least having a crack and have a few players capable of hurting the Power if given a free reign.

Last week Westcoast were unlucky in many ways not to down the Lions with a contentious non free kick late in the game but they had other chances and will rue some missed shots early in the last.

The loss means they will almost certainly win the wooden spoon for the first time, and for John Worsfold that could be fatal.

So we have two coaches possibly fighting for survival in the last three weeks of the season which adds to the intrigue of what otherwise should be a scrappy, poorly attended messy affair.

Mark Le Cras was well held last week, and Kennedy had to fight hard all afternoon and these two remain the keys in attack.

Young players Strjik, Stephens, Ebert and co are showing some good signs and a couple of young defenders look ok so they can at least start to put a platform in place.

Use of the ball is the big issue with the Eagles, statistically they have the worst disposal efficiency accross the season and time and time again that brings them undone.

Defensive pressure needs to improve as well, the Eagles conceed 57 inside fifties per game on average, which is the worst record in the competition. Port Adelaide's small/medium forwards should relish the supply if it comes down that frequently and Jay Schulz remains in good form.

Historically Aami Stadium is not a happy hunting ground for Westcoast, having never reached 100 points in a game there, and losing their past five by an average of 56 points.

Defensively Brown should get Westhoff, Mackenzie or Schofield might take Schulz with Ebert and Grey the keys to Port's success.

Both are in good form and if Port get good supply, they should have enough to kick a winning score.

At the other end of the ground, Chaplin might get LeCras, but pace will be an issue there. Logan is another option but might not have the height to go with him.

Carlisle will take either Kennedy or Lynch with Daniel Stewart likely to get the other.

Defence is an issue for Port Adelaide as well, who have been conceeding a score from 55% of opposition inside fifties this season.

They are however conceeding only 48% of goals from set shots which ranks highly in the comp so they are effective at bringing it to ground.

Unfortunately last week they conceeded so many easy goals from overlap play where St.Kilda had so many free men everywhere that it didn't matter how well their key backs played.

If they offer the Eagles that freedom, then they could be punished as the win over Essendon a few weeks back demonstrates that Westcoast can be dangerous when free.

In a game between a side I don't trust, and another that is just no good I am backing the home side to get the job done here and produce an eighth win of the season and in the process improve Matthew Primus's chances of taking the coaching job long term.

The Eagles are poor travellers and don't quite have the sharpness of ball use to take advantage of Port Adelaide's unaccountability.

It won't be pretty, but Port will win.

Port Adelaide by 18 points

Preview - Western Bulldogs vs Geelong - Round 20

2010-08-11T11:07:00.001-07:00

Western Bulldogs vs Geelong - Etihad Stadium - Saturday Night

Western Bulldogs -4th - 13-6 - 140.26%
Geelong -2nd - 14-5 - 142.07%

Etihad Stadium will play host to a crucial clash between two top four sides on Saturday night in a match of great significance in shaping the first week of the finals.

Much intrigue surrounds the game as well with several key Bulldogs under a cloud due to a flu virus that has swept through the Kennell.

Higgins, Cooney, Hudson and Murphy are amongst a number of names racing against time to recover for the clash with the reigning champs this week.

Despite this recent unwanted battle, the Bulldogs are flying on field at present and are second only to Collingwood as the form side of the competition.

Their run and spread from the contest, slick movement and gut running to space are all where they should be and they are firmly in the mix to challenge for a flag if they can continue in this vein.

One concern with the Bulldogs has been their ability to claim a really big scalp and beat one of the competitions top sides.

In the past two seasons, St.Kilda, Collingwood, Geelong and the Bulldogs have occupied the top four and it's interesting to assess the record of each side against the rest of that group.

St.Kilda have a 9-2 record, Geelong are 7-4, Collingwood are 5-8 and the Bulldogs are a dissapointing 2-10 which demonstrates they have come up short.

They haven't been far away in a lot of those games but it is very important that they take the scalp of a Geelong before the finals to inject enormous confidence into the group.

Their spread of goalkickers in recent times has been really pleasing also. Until six weeks ago, the Bulldogs were down 70 goals on the same time last year from their six main 2009 forwards Hahn, Johnson, Akermanis, Higgins, Giansiracusa and Murphy.

They have dragged that back to 42 now and with Barry Hall in fine form, the wheel has certainly turned, and the potency is back in full force.

Over the last seven weeks the Bulldogs have averaged 109 points a game which ranks second in the AFL and it's been coming at the excellent accuracy of 64%.

They have also scored 264 points from stoppages this year which shows the attacking nature of their midfield group.

The key, like it is most weeks when it comes to beating these two sides or any for that matter is the pressure on the ball carrier.

Geelong play a high posession, fast, aggressive style of footy and the Bulldogs are probably the best touch footy side in the comp.

They are the most skillful team in it and will hurt you more then any other team in space.

Geelong conceeded 86 points from turnovers last week, mostly due to Collingwood's pressure and the Bulldogs need to replicate that.

Conversely the Cats sit second for tackles this year and the Bulldogs are also susceptible if you crowd up their space and force them into using the ball long as often as possible.

Geelong's defence eat the long ball for breakfast so the Dogs need to gut run into space and be smart and sharp with their build up.

For the Cats last week was a slap in the face but not something they should necessarily be panicking about.

The Pies got hold of them in a big way and it was only due to sheer brilliance from Geelong that they were in the game, but the reality is they were comprehensively outplayed.

Their is no doubt the Cats will need to be at their best to topple the Magpies later in the year, but they had a few blokes short of a gallop and it doesn't necessarily hurt to get a wake up call at this stage of the season.

One thing they do need to sort out is what they do with their big men.

Mooney and Ottens will play, but the issue sits around Hawkins, Blake and Podsiadly.

They have to determine whether they go with Ottens and Blake in the ruck, and play Hawkins forward, or drop Blake, run Hawkins in the ruck and select J-Pod up forward.

I tend to support the latter theory, despite Podsiadly's struggles away from the cattery due to the mobility Hawkins offers up the ground. But the reality is they cannot select all three of the aforementioned players in the same team as it simply makes them too top heavy (See the Carlton loss earlier this year for an example).

Defensively I could see Scarlett taking Hall in a cracking match up, Lonergan might get a crack at Jarred Grant but I'd expect either a Mackie or a Milburn to take him with big Tom getting the resting ruckmen Roughead when he pushes forward.

Josh Hunt is an option for Johnson or Higgins if they play in the front half, and with Harry Taylor unavailable they will have to re-shuffle slightly.

At the other end Lake will take Mooney, Williams should get Podsiadly, Morris will take either Stokes or Chapman whilst Harbrow (if he plays) will get Byrnes in all likelihood.

The Cats, like their opponents rotate midfielders heavily through the front half of the ground to add some unpredictability to the attack and they probably do it better then anyone else.

Ling will try to lock down on Boyd I dare say, whilst Picken might try to limit the Cats main grunt man Joel Selwood.

The Cats have a few factors in their favour this week, with the Dogs battling illness, coming back from interstate after a heavy slog and with one less day to prepare, but the Cats themselves had a bruising encounter.

The Bulldogs for mine appear to be in the better form of the two and I think they might just edge out the boys from down the highway in this one.

Geelong are fine tuning for September in terms of their structure and as a result aren't quite at their best. They have nothing to worry about at all and whilst two straight losses isn't ideal, they went through similar at this time last year and we all know what happened then!

The Bulldogs have a settled unit, an in form midfield group and are playing the best they have since the NAB Cup triumph.

As dynamic as the Cats are, the likes of Cooney, Boyd, Higgins, Griffen, Cross, Gilbee and even Moles and Eagleton are just providing so much running depth at the moment and will thoroughly enjoy Etihad Stadium.

It could go either way in a ripping contest, but the Pups for mine.

Bulldogs by 7 points

Preview - Fremantle vs Sydney - Round 20

2010-08-10T11:08:00.000-07:00

Fremantle vs Sydney -Subiaco - Saturday

Fremantle 5th - 12-7-111.44%
Sydney 7th -10-9 - 103.85%

Subiaco Oval will play host to an intriguing clash this Saturday with the stumbling Dockers taking on a Sydney side that bounced back to form last week after a horrendous fortnight.

Fremantle fell to arguably their worst loss of the season last week when the Kangaroos tore them apart at Etihad Stadium.

Aaron Sandilands absence was obviously signficant given it exposed Kepler Bradley to the lions share of the ruckwork against McIntosh and Goldstein, but their lack of defensive running and presence around the stoppages was the most concerning factor of all.

Fremantle's attacking flair has been a feature of their season, but the rise up the ladder can be attributed to an improvement in pressure skills and contested ball.

Both of those areas have fallen away badly for Fremantle which is the tell tale sign of a tired football team.

North Melbourne kicked a number of very easy goals where they had punched through Fremantle in the middle of the ground and had three to four players running into space inside fifty without opposition midfielders pushing back fast enough to stop them.

A lot of players are out of the side injured, and that is an undeniable factor in the slide but Fremantle have hit the wall this season.

They have the capacity to improve and challenge for the flag in coming seasons but they can't let this year turn into a dissapointment.

They will play finals for the third time in their history, but they owe it to themselves to win one.

If they can finish 5th or 6th they will in all likelihood draw Carlton or Sydney at home in the first week, possibly the Hawks, Dees or Kangaroos and it is important that they win that final, move into a second week and get a crack at a semi final at the MCG.

They would lose that semi, but a two final season would do justice to their efforts and set a nice launching pad going forward.

Stephen Hill needs to bounce back after a stinker last week where he was totally eclipsed by Brady Rawlings.

Matthew Pavlich played his worst game for the year, and Rhys Palmer needs to deliver a bit more around the stoppages.

They are a talented side who had a huge win at their last start at Subiaco, and they should enjoy the wider spaces at home against a Sydney side that did get opened up in their two most recent starts on big grounds.

But they still need to lift their workrate if they are to get the job done.

For the Swans last week was a pleasing return to what they do best. They took control of the tempo early, established control at the stoppages and strangled the life out of their opponents.

They benefited from being back on the smaller ground at the SCG but it was an important win given they had experienced the worst fortnight in Paul Roos's reign as coach.

The fact the two losses were at the MCG and ANZ Stadium, two of the competitions larger grounds might hold concerns for Subiaco, given they were sliced up in wide open spaces by two sides that spread well from contests.

Fremantle are a side that does that as well, but Sydney should encounter an under strength midfield lacking in confidence and hence will fair a lot better.

They also have some excellent users of the ball running off half back and these players are super important when playing on Subiaco as guys who can drive the ball long and precisely through the lines can be so damaging.

Malceski, Shaw and Kennelly do it so well and Fremantle will need to put some homework into them if they are to win.

Without Mayne and Ballantyne in attack, Sydney will be confident of restricting the Dockers forwards.

Grundy will probably get Pavlich, with Richards as the second option.

He will probably get Bradley first up provided Sandilands returns.

Hasleby and Fyfe should get some close attention as well.

Brett Kirk will probably go to Hill who is finding life tough without Barlow attracting a tag whilst Mundy might get taken by Moore or perhaps run head to head with Bolton.

At the other end, Mcpharlin lacks the mobility to go with Goodes and a smokey for mine is Roger Hayden who is a player underated by many in Victoria.

Grover is another option, but he might get emerging youngster Trent Dennis Lane.

Ben Mcglynn might get DeBoer or perhaps Ibbotson for company.

Sydney this year have been more inconsistent then normal, and when sides have created space they have lacked the leg speed and class to beat them, but Fremantle just aren't getting enough quality ball out of the middle and some youngsters are carrying more burden then they have for much of the season and as a result they have slipped back to the pack.

Home ground advantage will be a factor, but with O'Keefe, Goodes, Bolton and Kirk back in form, Sydney have too many big bodies playing well and will wear Fremantle down at the stoppages and produce a win that should seal their place in September one last time under Paul Roos.

Sydney by 14 points

Preview - Carlton vs Richmond Round 20

2010-08-10T07:09:00.001-07:00

Carlton vs Richmond - MCG - Saturday Afternoon

Carlton 6th - 10-9 - 106.99%
Richmond 15th - 6-13 - 73.71%

As we near September the rejuvenated Blues tackle the improving Tigers in an other important clash in terms of shaping September.

Carlton face the Cats and also Freo at Subiaco in the last fortnight, so with pressure coming from Syndey, Hawthorn, Melbourne and the Kangaroos, the Blues must win this clash to fend those sides off before a difficult run home.

Not to say Richmond won't provide difficulty, they have been a huge improver this year and are not easy beats by any means, but Carlton would be expecting to win this and simply must if they are to play finals.

Last week was an excellent response by the Blues and Brett Ratten should be commended for putting the acid on his players, and then making smart decisions at the selection table.

The thing Ratten did was strip it back to basics, and get blokes in who are prepared to put their body on the line.

Hadley, Grigg and Robinson are all limited footballers, with futures that are uncertain. But one thing they do unconditionally is hit the ball hard, and compete.

They set the scene for the Blues and with Judd, Murphy and Gibbs keen to atone the response was pleasing for Carlton who opened the game up as a result, found more time with the footy, and were able to bring their smaller forward line back into the game.

They face interesting selection challenges this week with Brad Fisher and Andrew Walker beating down the door.

Both were dropped last week and Fisher responded with 10 goals, whilst Walker collected 47 touches in the Bullants thumping win over Frankston.

Yes the dolphins are terrible, but that is the perfect way to respond to being axed.

Walker is clearly in their best 22 when fit, and should come back, and I feel their is a place for Fisher long term as well.

He has his limitations but most sides function better with that hit up high half forward player who can link between midfield and deep inside fifty.

Henderson needs to play closer to goal, but Fisher can fill that important hit up role in my oppinion.

This week though, it might be hard for him to push in given the side dominated and kicked 23 goals.

Ratten I feel will stick to the boys who turned the table with the possible exception of Walker slotting back into defence and provide another running option to help counter the Tigers pace.

For Richmond last week was a solid showing that lacked the polish of some of their earlier performances, and ultimately that cost them against the slick and in form Dees.

Melbourne scored ten goals directly from Richmond turnovers last week, whilst conversely Richmond were only able to nab majors from four of Melbourne's direct errors.

Their ball use has improved a lot this season but last week, whilst they were competing well at stoppages and spreading well from the contest, they were very sloppy by foot which would have dissapointed Damien Hardwick.

This week they face the old foe Carlton in a chance to shape the eight and dent the chances severely of their much hated rival.

If they continue to win as much ball as they have over the past couple of months they will make life very difficult for Carlton and could most definitely win the game.

58 Inside fifties last week netted just eleven goals, and with Jack Riewoldt well held, they struggled to find other consistent avenues to goal, with midfielders and ruckmen Angus Graham doing most of the damage.

I think Ben Nason needs another spell, he has struggled for impact in the last month and Andrew Collins is a proven goal kicker who can provide that X Factor inside fifty, bob up and kick three and perhaps win them the game.

Thursfield and McGuane are being experimented with up forward but I reckon they are better served having a crack with young Jayden Post, who has looked ok at times, or perhaps even Vickery.

Ben Cousin's past five to six weeks will go a long way to securing him a contract for next season and I for one firmly hope he gets one.

Carlton will no doubt put some work into Brett Deledio and I could see Carazzo getting a forward line tagging role on the Tigers star.

Jake King could return to defence to get one of Garlett or Betts with Edwards or Webberly getting the other.

Jarred Waite will need close checking from the Tigers and perhaps Thursfield or Moore might get the job, but Hardwick might throw the task at young emerging defender David Astbury.

At the other end, Jamison or Bower will get the big job on Jack Riewoldt who still leads the coleman despite kicking just one last week on James Frawley.

Both these sides have forward lines that can struggle when one or two blokes are contained, and the key is who can deliver the cleanest ball inside fifty and capitalise on their chances.

The Blues broke through Essendon's meek chain last week and had a lot of space to deliver well going forward.
The Tigers have been a pretty good pressure side since Round 8 ranking third for tackles and contested ball and if they bring this to the table they can win it.

Carlton though should just have a bit too much class, and whilst the Tigers will be in this game most of the afternoon, with a spot in the eight on the line, and a midfield that has found some form Carlton will win their 11th game of the season and take a major step towards booking a date with September.

Carlton by 16 points

Preview - Essendon vs Collingwood - Round 20

2010-08-09T23:27:00.000-07:00

Essendon vs Collingwood - MCG - Friday Night

Essendon 12th -7-12 - 84.40%
Collingwood 1st - 15-3-1 - 141.04%

The rampaging Magpies are confronted with the chance to once again demolish an arch rival this friday night. It would also see them continue their amazing march towards a september campaign that promises plenty for the Black and White army.

Last week they took down the champions Geelong in an ominous display for the competition. It came three weeks after a demolition of St.Kilda and the margin in this game should have been far greater then the 22 points it was.

58 more contested posessions, 24 more inside fifties and 12 more scoring shots tell the tale of Collingwood's domination.

The Cats sheer brilliance kept them alive in this match at times, but Collingwood had their measure all evening and are now justifiable flag favourites for 2010.

Of particular note was the spread of goal kicking again for the Magpies. 10 players kicked majors in another example of the enormous depth of talent at Mick Malthouse's disposal.

Wellingham, Thomas, Jolly, Ball, Beams, Sidebottom, Dawes, Toovey, Leigh Brown, Didak and Reid are players that have either improved on last year, or come into the side and had an impact to make them better in 2010.

No other finalist boasts that spread of improvement accross the board and it is for that reason that Collingwood are undeniably the team to beat this year.

You still have to get it done though, and the Pies have a few demons in their past they will be well aware of, but I feel this is the best chance they have had in my time watching footy.

Geelong were the best team in the competition in 2008, and St.Kilda were in 2009, but neither won the flag, so finals can throw up some surprises from time to time.

Collingwood's frontal pressure game is reminiscint of the Saints of last year. They have maintained their own style of play, but have ramped up the pressure skills and zoning this year to fanatical levels.

Geelong's fast aggressive style of play was broken down time and time again by Collingwood's tackling and harassing of the ball carrier.

It hasn't been unique to saturday night though, the Pies have done that relentlessly to every team in the competition and boast at least a six goal win against every team in the eight, except Geelong and they should have beaten them by six goals plus too.

For the Bombers last week was a return to the horrible form of rounds 11-16 with a shellacking at the hands of old foe Carlton.

The progress made in the previous fortnight was undone in a poor display under the Friday Night lights.

Whilst those lights did funny things to goal umpire's minds, they also must have affected the Bombers who applied next to no pressure to a Carlton side that was under intense scrutiny all week.

The Blues were always going to be up and about after the scathing criticism that followed their loss to the Pies and Essendon no doubt expected that. However their response made life far too easy for Carlton to establish control around the stoppages through Judd, Murphy, Grigg, Hadley, Gibbs and Carazzo.

Down back, Robinson did an unlikely job on Fletcher and McVeigh, Hocking etc had their hands full with Carlton's swarm of small forwards.

However their job was made impossible by the lack of midfield accountability. Carlton were allowed far too much easy ball inside fifty and if Collingwood have that same licence, this game will be a monumental blow out.

Up forward, Hardingham's star continues to rise. He should have kicked six last week given his chances, but he had a case of the yips and netted 2.5 for the night.

He has a fantastic leap and will be an interesting match up decision for the Pies.
Monfries, Neagle and the resting ruckmen carry the usual burden of scoring, and the ability of Zaharakis (who has had a very underrated season), Winderlich and Stanton to push forward and hurt the Pies will determine how competitive the Dons are.

As will their ability to work just as hard the other way, and restrict the space offered to Wellingham, Swan, Pendlebury and in particular Didak.

McVeigh will most likely get first dibs on the star number four, whilst Hurley will take Cloke and Hooker should get Brown when forward, or perhaps McAffer.

Dustin Fletcher will probably take Dawes and try to hurt him on the rebound.

At the other end, Presti will make life tough for the young Neagle and Monfries will get Shaw or Toovey for company.

Everywhere you look their are match ups of concern for Essendon but they are an enigma the Bombers in that they can swing between dynamic and rubbish on any given week. The gap between their best and worst is arguably the greatest in the competition.

On that note they deserve the cautious respect of the Pies who wouldn't want a let down after last week's huge win.

They won't get a let down though, and whilst the Bombers have the capacity to make this a contest for a while, it won't last long enough to avoid going the way of most sides in clashes with Collingwood in recent weeks, and feel the pain of a ten goal loss.

Collingwood by 49 points

Preview- Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs - Round 19

2010-08-05T04:54:00.000-07:00

Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs - Aami Stadium - Sunday

Adelaide 11th - 7-11 -91.92%
Western Bulldogs 4th - 12-6 - 141.27%

Round 19 will conclude at Aami Stadium with yet another intriguing game. The young Crows who cling to life by a thread in season 2010 will take on a Western Bulldogs outfit that cannot afford a slip up if it is to finish top four.

Adelaide's last two weeks have probably killed them, but the fact so many rivals for a spot in the eight have been losing as well, means they remain slightly in the hunt, but they will need to win all four games which seems improbable given the draw.

Last week they had Richmond on toast for the entire second quarter, but squandered several chances to put them away and ended up being over hauled after half time in a game reminiscint of the 1998 Grand Final which Crows fans would remember well.

With some experienced players injured or unavailable for a lot of the year the Crows have been forced to blood several youngsters and the majority look to have a bright future.

Sloane, Mackay, Henderson and Davis have looked good this year, and combine that with the continued development of Dangerfield, Walker, Douglas and Vince and Adelaide's prospects in 2011 aren't all that bleak.

They have been lacking some key experience at crucial stages of the last two games and it has cost them at important moments.

You could see that being a problem against the experienced and in form Bulldogs this week, but the Crows are always a hard nut to crack at home.

Last time they played a visiting team at home it was Geelong and they took the points that night so the Bulldogs will still need to bring every bit of their best form to win the game.

Adelaide's defence contained Jack Riewoldt last week through Rutten, and I could see him restricting Barry Hall. Johncock's return should help cover one of the Bulldogs smalls like a Gia or Higgins or perhaps even Johnson but it was Richmond's spread last week that got the better of the Crows.

Their defence is solid but lacks a bit of pace, and their midfield at this stage is a bit inconsistent given the young nature of the group.

This means the ball often comes down quickly and players find space more readily then normal against the Crows.

The Tigers had 11 goal kickers last week and kicked several sharp crumbing or stoppage goals after half time.

Adelaide rank third for restricting the opposition from marking inside fifty, but have been worse when the ball has hit the deck.

Expect Craig to be focusing on their front and square work in defence and protecting space in defensive fifty at a stoppage.

For the Bulldogs, the last month has been their best of the season. Big scores, lots of run, slick ball movement and four crushing wins on the trot has put them right in the mix for top four again.

Barry Hall is now joint leader in the Coleman, Jarrod Grant continues to develop whilst Johnson, Higgins, Giansiracusa and Murphy get better with each passing week.

Defensively the run provided by Gilbee, Harbrow, Murphy and co has been fantastic and Lake, Hargrave, Morris and Williams are all doing their job.

They can struggle at Aami Stadium from time to time, and with a game against Geelong to come, it is super critical that they get a result here.

Adelaide play with some flair but are primarily built on defence. The Bulldogs are the competitions slickest movers of the footy, and the most attacking, high scoring team in the competition so it's a battle of contrasts in many ways.

Lake will make life tough for the out of form Tippett, Morris should get Walker, Harbrow will take the porpoise, whilst Dangerfield and Henderson will need some close attention as well.

Jaensch and Sloane have been good of late and must be monitored also.

In the middle the Bulldogs spread of talent should shine through.
Boyd, Cooney, Cross, Higgins, Griffen and Gilbee should have too much for Vince, Van Berlo, Mackay, Thompson and potentially Goodwin.

Accuracy has been an issue of course as well for the crows. They are ranked 15th for converting shots this season so must sharpen up and take their chances, as they did against Geelong if they are to get home.

The Bulldogs are the number one side for marks once inside fifty, and as said above the Crows are one of the best at restricting this stat.

However I think they will struggle to contain the full compliment of scoring options at the Bulldogs disposal and try as they might they will eventually get outrun.

The Crows are capable of winning this game and the Bulldogs must be sharp, but with a top four berth on the line, and a fleet of quality players in form, they will be too strong.

For Adelaide, the difficult season that has been 2010 will finally be put to rest on Sunday.

Western Bulldogs by 22 points

Preview - Melbourne vs Richmond -Round 19

2010-08-04T23:48:00.000-07:00

Melbourne vs Richmond - MCG - Sunday

Melbourne 10th - 7-10-1 - 95.09%
Richmond 14th - 6-12 - 73.73%

This Sunday the MCG will play host to two teams with very bright futures in a fascinating clash of particular importance in shaping the final eight.

Melbourne can take a big step towards a surprise finals appearance if they win this game. Given the faltering form of some of their rivals in the eight at present, the door is open for Melbourne.

They must win at least three games between now and the end of the year, and quite possibly all four.

Although possible, that is unlikely as they are still prone to inconsistency.
To make the eight they would probably need to finish the season on close to a seven game winning streak. As good as they are, and will be, that seems beyond them even if the games in theory seem winnable.

I doubt personally that they can stay up that long, but we have seen them play some wonderful football when their confidence is up so I'm not going to rule them out.

The main focus for Melbourne is to continue to develop kids and just take each game as it comes and build something more for the future with every passing week.

They have an undoubted wealth of good kids, and after watching the Casey Scorpions last week I can conclude there are at least seven future guns running around at that level for them, so they will have a tremendous list that must leave all fans salivating at what lies ahead.

Last week the Dees were excellent for a half, then a little dissapointing for a half. In the first they were superb with their spread from the contest and just dominated the stoppages.

Their use of the ball was a significant level above Brisbane's and they appeared destined to blow them away.

After half time though the appeared tired and sloppy, and managed to hang on due to some poor discipline and a lack of precision by the Lions.

Often teams fall victim to the humidity in Brisbane after half time, and the Lions have been notoriously strong finishers at home so it's not a major surprise but Dean Bailey would have been a touch dissapointed with the way they faded.

An area Melbourne are really developing in is defence. In the past six weeks Melbourne have conceded less scores per Inside Fifty then any other side in the competition.

Defence is seen as the lorgical starting place when building a premiership team, and the Dees are building a very good one.

James Frawley is likely to get the job on Jack Riewoldt this week in a battle of two future champions taken out of the same draft a few years back.

The Dees will be hoping to welcome back Brent Moloney as his hardness has caused problems for Richmond in the past, and he dominated their most recent clash in Round four.

For the Tigers, last week was another win of character after two very poor weeks. They were on the ropes in the second quarter and totally at Adelaide's mercy, but the crows failed to put them away.

Richmond then did what good sides do and made them pay with a dominant second half that netted ten goals to four.

They have now beaten every interstate side in the competition but are yet to claim the scalp of a victorian club.

This week presents them with a big chance provided they can maintain last week's form without lapsing like they did in the previous fortnight.

Deledio, Newman and Connors are probably the three best kicks in the team, and Damien Hardwick is setting them all up accross half back much like the Hawthorn side did when Hardwick was involved about five years ago with Hodge, Birchall, Ellis, Young, Guerra and Ladson all floating accross half back.

Richmond have sharpened up by foot as a result of putting their creators in the most important positions and they are also very strong around the stoppages hence their dramatic improvement.

In the last nine weeks, Richmond are ranked second for tackles, and third for contested posessions so they have added a real hardness to their game.

The main concern is efficiency going forward. In the past three weeks they have hit a target with just 38% of forward entries, and this emerging demon defence will bring them undone if they are that sloppy again.

It looms as a fascinating battle with two emerging midfields, one that is excellent inside with it's clearance and contest work (Richmond), and the other that appears to be emulating itself on Geelong with it's run and spread from the contest and numbers around the ball at all times (Melbourne).

Not co-incidentally Hawthorn and Geelong are the last two premiers and have revolutionised the game tactically in completely different ways.

There is a fair chance these two sides will have sustained success over a period of time so it's interesting the trends they are tending to follow.

I'm really warming to Dean Bailey. I reckon he is doing a wonderful job developing them and has developed a game plan to their strengths.

It is a hard game to split. Melbourne are a bit better at their best, but both are inconsistent as expected.

Throw in the fact Melbourne are returning from a humid night in Brisbane, whilst Richmond have one less day to prepare.

Last time these sides met, Melbourne won by 55 points. But they have 5 changes to their side since then, and conversely Richmond have 7 changes, so I wouldn't necessarily take a lot out of that.

As a rule, these sides match up well on each other but I'm tipping an upset of sorts this week. Melbourne have been up for a while, but I think Richmond can get on top in the middle with the Dees missing a couple of key clearance players.

Just a gut feeling also, but Melbourne might get a touch of reality, and by no means a cruel one, that although they are travelling along beautifully, they have a few more hurdles to cross before they become a top side and the odd lull is too be expected.

Expect one from the young Dees sunday against the plucky Tiges given they are coming off a tough road trip on a hard ground on a warm night.
The Gabba trip has taken plenty out of several sides this year, and expect it to happen again.

Richmond by 5 points

Preview- St.Kilda vs Port Adelaide - Round 19

2010-08-04T21:23:00.000-07:00

St.Kilda vs Port Adelaide - Etihad Stadium - Sunday

St.Kilda - 3rd - 12-5-1 - 115.63%
Port Adelaide - 13th - 7-11 - 81.36%

Things have not gone to script over the past three weeks for the Saints who face a rejuvenated Port Adelaide side this Sunday in an important game.

St.Kilda have not won for a month and if they fail to do so this week, they could potentially fall out of the top four, a thought most would have deemed impossible for much of the season.

Port Adelaide on the other hand have found a new lease on life in recent weeks. A showdown victory followed by a gutsy come from behind win over Hawthorn has put Matthew Primus in the box seat to snare the coaching job long term.

One thing we are seeing from Port is some fight and spirit, not something we have been used to associating with them.

Generally as a rule they have been the poorest side at overhauling opposition leads. Once behind, they are usually no chance. And once challenged physically often they would just fall over.

But they have weathered some storms in the past fortnight and have come out of it with two victories. This needs to be the start of something for them going forward as they have some talented young players they can build with.

Tactically, Primus has delivered a couple of rippers since taking the job. His match ups last week were perfect. He managed to restrict Luke Hodge and Cyril Rioli, take Roughead out of the game and open the forward line up enough for Jay Schulz and Brett Ebert to cause headaches for the improving, yet vulnerable Hawks defence.

He will face similar challenges this week against a St.Kilda side that is struggling to find it's best form yet remains one of the competitions most difficult teams.

Sam Gilbert and Sam Fisher have been restricted over recent weeks, and this is really limiting St.Kilda's run.

Teams are also spreading St.Kilda's defenders and isolating them one on one where they can be shaky.

St.Kilda's defensive unit when functioning as a whole is outstanding, possibly the best the game has seen, but when the defenders are isolated they can be susceptible to quick ball movement and Essendon is a side that exploits that better then anyone has against St.Kilda lately.

Port Adelaide are capable of moving it quickly, although not to the same level, nor with the same precision as Essendon.

They also have a forward line that doesn't have the potency of Essendon although it is in good form.

Jay Schulz and Justin Westhoff are playing as well as they possibly ever have, and Ebert has a very good record against St.Kilda.

Expect Blake to get Schulz given Dawson's absence. Gwilt will probably get Ebert and Fisher should take Westhoff accross half back.

Steven Baker would have played on Robbie Grey, but expect Gram to more then likely get that gig.

St.Kilda's form is an interesting point of discussion. Yes their are some concerns, but it isn't quite as bad as people think. They were poor against Collingwood, I thought quite good, albeit lucky against Hawthorn and then they got pulled apart by an Essendon side that has had it's measure for a long time.

They have some things to sort out though. Firstly they need to get the defence working cohesively, and also up the pressure again through the middle.

St.Kilda last year were conceeding 40 Inside Fifties a game which is an all time record low. In the past month, teams have been punching through far more frequently so they need to tighten up again with their zone.

In attack, they found numerous avenues to goal when Riewoldt was out. They need to utilise these again as they have fallen into the habit of going to the superstar far too often.

A big game isn't far away for Nick, but St.Kilda have Schneider, Milne, Steven, Goddard and Montagna all as big contributors this season and Gram, Dal Santo, Peake and Gardiner can all push forward or deliver running goals if they just lift their eyes a bit when pushing into attack.

Koschitzke continues to struggle, but last week he was starved of chances after a promising display against the Hawks.

His form accross the season probably warrants omission, but St.Kilda can't win the flag if he doesn't stand up and contribute in September so they need to pick him.

They have their troubles with Port Adelaide, generally their fleet of runners in particular and smaller forward set up, but expect a turnaround in intensity for the Saints this week and if they lift in that area, they should be able to contain them and deliver a much needed four points.

Expect Carlisle to take Koschitzke, and whilst Trengove has put his hand up to play on Riewoldt, I reckon Chaplin will get first crack.

Kane Cornes will tag Dal Santo in all likelihood, and conversely Clinton Jones should get a stopping job on David Rodan who destroyed St.Kilda in Round 5.

Dean Brogan flew solo last week in the ruck last week, but he will get stiffer competition this week from Gardiner and McEvoy who have been solid.

Port Adelaide have found a bit of form, and will be in this game for a lot of the day, but St.Kilda should be stung on the back of some criticism and questions about their form and premiership chances.

After an even first half, expect St.Kilda to edge away and win the game comfortably.

St.Kilda by 25 points

Westcoast vs Brisbane - Round 19

2010-08-04T08:26:00.000-07:00

Westcoast vs Brisbane - Subiaco - Saturday Night

Westcoast 16th - 4-14 - 76.32%
Brisbane 15th - 5-13 - 79.61%

On the night where the competitions two top sides lock horns at the MCG, a different battle will be waged accross the nullabor in WA.

The competitions two biggest dissapointments of 2010 will fight out to see who wins the Wooden Spoon this season.

For the Eagles it will be the first in the 24 season history of the club, whilst for the Lions, it will be their first since 1998.

Westcoast were deplorable last week against their cross town rivals, in one of the worst performances of a terrible season.

Brisbane on the other hand tried hard, had their moments but just butchered the ball far too much to topple the talented young demons.

Foot skills is the one issue that needs real focus here. These two sides last week demonstrated probably the poorest example of field kicking I have ever seen.

Brisbane had 85 kicks in the first half, 47 of them were innefective. Westcoast also went around at 55% for the afternoon in their game.

It is a sad sight to see when clubs are so bereft of confidence that they miss the most basic targets by foot.

The Eagles kicking efficiency for the season ranks 15th, whilst the Lions are last accross the past six weeks.

This has the potential to be one uguly game of footy, for anyone who isn't glued to events at the MCG.

Brendan Fevola predictably has been put away for surgery and will miss the rest of the season, he has been sore for a long time, and has fought on quite bravely in my oppinion, but he was a spent force as early as Round 15.

Jonathan Brown on the other hand seems to be tracking along okay. Whilst not at 100% he has been brave for the past three weeks and looms as a potential match winner.

Last week was a familiar story for the Lions. The kids looked ok, some of the veterans look tired, and the new recruits failed to deliver.

As predicted they finished stronger, but just lacked the early season polish to nail the Demons in the end.

They also lack a bit of pace through the middle and might struggle on the wider expands of Subiaco.

Sherman came back in, and showed some alright signs, but must string it together and Aaron Cornelius must surely get another go now with Fev put out pasture.

Brennan, Rich and Rischitelli are the keys for Brisbane in this game. They can kick long and break the lines, they should be able to set up for the Lions who will need to be long and direct, as their skills will bring them undone if they overuse the ball and get forced wide on the large Subiaco wings.

The Eagles have one of the competitions best forwards in super form at present and it's hard to find a match up.

Mark LeCras has kicked 58 goals for the season in a rubbish team and must surely be marching towards the All Australian selection he deserved last year.

Looking through the Lions line up, I think Joel Patfull will get first crack at him, outside of that maybe Staker would get a go.

It's a massive headache for Brisbane.

Merrett might get Kennedy who has been solid as well, or perhaps Lynch, with Staker or Patfull getting Kennedy dependant upon which one is asigned to Lecras.

One thing the Eagles have done well all year is score once in attack. They leak in defence, they are slow and sloppy in the middle, but they are ranked third for scores once inside fifty.

Brisbane's defence has fought hard, but without Drummond, and with Merrett out of form, they do look poor.

Westcoast have started well in their last five games at Subiaco, and the Lions have won only four first quarters this year and conceded five goals on average in every first term this year.

If Westcoast jump them, as shaky as they are, they will hold off the Lions who don't have the capacity to overwhelm sides at present with their lack of form and conditioning.

Schofield could possibly get the job on Jonathan Brown which is a huge ask, but the Lions once again need more goal kicking options, an age old problem for this team.

The report is bleak for both teams, but so is the situation.
For the Eagles it's about a total rebuild, whilst for the Lions it's about getting out of this season as soon as possible and re-grouping towards what should be a better 2011.

Right now though, the Eagles look the goods here.
Westcoast are a far better side at home and recent Subiaco efforts against visiting teams have been highly competitive.
A similar effort will be enough here and they will put themselves in the mix once more to avoid an unwanted accolade, and perhaps confine the once mighty Lions to that fate.

Westcoast by 16 points

ALL AUSTRALIAN TEAM

2010-08-04T08:17:00.000-07:00

EARLY ALL AUSTRALIAN AT THE END OF ROUND 18

This is how I would select the All Australian team right now

B: Sam Gilbert (St.Kilda), Brian Lake (West.B), Nick Malceski (Syd)

HB: Luke Hodge (Hawks) ,Harry Taylor (Geelong), Brendan Goddard (St.Kilda)

C: Leigh Montagna (St.Kilda), Dane Swann (Collingwood), Paul Chapman (Geelong)

HF: Steve Johnson (Geelong), Matthew Pavlich (Fremantle), Adam Cooney (Western Bulldogs)

FF: Mark LeCras(Westcoast), Jack Riewoldt (Richmond), Barry Hall (Western Bulldogs)

R: Aaron Sandilands (Fremantle), Gary Ablett(Geelong), Lenny Hayes (St.Kilda)

I: Mark Jamar (Melbourne), Joel Selwood (Geelong), Harry O'Brien (Collingwood), Brett Deledio (Richmond)

Unlucky: David Mundy (Fremantle), Jarrod Harbrow (West.B), Brad Green (Melb), Alan Didak (Collingwood), Stephen Milne (St.Kilda), Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood), Matthew Boyd (West.B), Jimmy Bartel (Geelong)

Geelong vs Collingwood - Round 19

2010-08-04T07:18:00.000-07:00

Geelong vs Collingwood - MCG - Saturday Night

Geelong 2nd - 14-4 - 146.90%
Collingwood 1st - 14-3-1 - 141.99%

Saturday night at the MCG sees one of the most anticipated home and away games in modern times.

On the evidence of 2010 the competition's two best sides will lock horns, both in super form, both close to full strength and in front of a thumping crowd at the home of footy!

It is nights like this that encapsulate all that is fantastic about the game.

Geelong's biggest ever home crowd was 87,000 at the MCG in 1989. I will be very dissapointed if this doesn't eclipse that mark as the Cats are the competition's most brilliant and attractive side, and Collingwood supporters are at fever pitch with the phenomenal form of their boys at present.

Bartel and Podsiadly will return to the fold for Geelong this week leaving only Max Rooke unavailable from their best 22.

The inclusions pose a pleasing dilemma for Geelong, as they ponder how to structure their best team with basically a full talent pool available.

The key area of focus for them remains the big man stocks. Sadly I think Mark Blake is destined to miss out on another finals campaign.

Blake has done nothing wrong in his time with the Cats, but I feel the structure of the side functions better with Hawkins as the second ruckmen.

Blake and Hawkins shared ruck duties to great affect earlier in the season and with Ottens back it should be Blake who draws the short straw.

With Podsiadly stepping into the fold they have added one tall to their squad from last year, and they will be too top heavy if they carry Mooney, Blake, Ottens, Hawkins and J Pod into the same side.

Podsiadly provides forward line depth, whilst Hawkins can work around the ground with greater affect then Blake and hence gets the nod.

Bartel needs to slot back in and perhaps Byrnes or Wojinski are the vulnerable two.

I like Wojinski but he has always seemed to hover around the 18th to 22nd selected player each week and would be vulnerable given his up and down form.

Byrnes was dropped a fortnight ago but is a real talent so it's tough for the Cats, but it's a problem most clubs would prey to have.

Collingwood are another side that fortunately does have that very same problem.

Heath Shaw and Simon Prestigiacomo are set to return this week posing slection headaches for Malthouse and co.

Presti will logically replace Nathan Brown who came in last week, and Shaw will most likely come in for the injured Wellingham but the query is when the Pies are at full strength, who goes out for Wellingham who has been outstanding this year?

Throw in the fact that Fraser, Medhurst and Anthony all played well in the VFL last week and Collingwood are very healthy at present.

Jarryd Blair and Tyson Goldsack are probably the two most vulnerable players in that side.

Both have been very good, but Goldsack is similar to Maxwell and Blair is a young man who has had one or two quiet games as expected since debut and he will be the one most likely to fall out.

In regards to this contest it promises to be truelly mouth watering.
The midfield battle will be tremendous. Ablett, Bartel, Selwood, Enright, Ling, Corey, Kelly and Chapman vs Swan, Pendlebury, Ball, Beams, Thomas, Didak, Johnson and Sidebottom.

On paper, Geelong has the edge, but that pies group is so even accross the board and in super form so it's a fantastic and crucial battle.

Down back Ben Reid will probably get Mooney, with Prestigiacomo taking Podsiadly. Toovey will get Stokes with Shaw on Varcoe, and perhaps Harry O'Brien will get the big job on the superstar Stevie Johnson.

Both are on All Australian pace at present and that is one of the match ups of the night.

At the other end expect Harry Taylor to run with Travis Cloke, Scarlett will make life hell for Chris Dawes and Tom Lonergan will pick up the resting ruckmen.

Josh Hunt will go with Davis, Mackie to take Thomas and Milburn will get McAffer.

Looking at these match ups it's not hard to determine why these sides are so strong.

We know all about Geelong, but Collingwood have improved by at least 20% on last season.

The facts are undeniable. Wellingham, Reid, Sidebottom, Beams, McAffer, Leigh Brown and Dale Thomas have improved out of sight. And when you add Jolly and Ball to the line up they have improved more then any of their rivals.

This Saturday night though is the litmus test to end all others. Win this, and the Pies are outright flag favourites.

Collingwood defeated St.Kilda three weeks ago in a win that shook a significant monkey off their back, and Geelong is the other side that has well and truelly had their measure (and most other sides for that matter).

The result of this match is significant four weeks out from september in terms of confidence.

Collingwood must walk away from this even in defeat, with a belief they can beat Geelong in a final.

If Collingwood belt them, watch the bandwagon overflow, if Geelong belt Collingwood, then I doubt they can win the flag if they face the Cats in september.

If it is close either way, Collingwood could walk away feeling they are close enough if good enough when it matters most.

I can't see either side getting hold of the other, and Collingwood are in the more complete form, but you know the Cats will lift for this.

Last week was the most complete performance by Geelong in about 12 rounds and the run and spread and slick ball movement was a brilliant as ever before.

Collingwood must use their run and create goals in general play to beat the Cats.
You do not beat Geelong by just driving the ball quickly inside fifty, you must run it in there, be patient and create stoppage goals, and crumbing goals in attack.

Geelong concede less goals from marks then any other side, and concede the fewest scores once inside fifty.

St.Kilda, Adelaide, Carlton and Fremantle all beat Geelong this year through plenty of goals from runners. Didak, Thomas, Beams, Sidebottom, Davis and Swan need to hit the scoreboard for them to win.

If the Cats pressure Collingwood accross half back they can force them to kick long inside fifty, rather then running it in, and if that happens they have got them again.

Collingwood conversely have scored more often once inside fifty then anyone else in the past eight weeks, so they are playing the way they need to play to win this game.

The Pies have been beaten in clearances the past four weeks, despite their dominance and whilst they are able to overcome that against certain sides, Geelong will not allow it.

The Cats have averaged 114 more posessions a game then Collingwood in their last three meetings and they will control the tempo if they get first hands on it.

For Geelong this is important, but for Collingwood it's the biggest game of the year so far, so expect them to be breathing fire early.

Collingwood need to be patient, they need to be sharp but at the same time they must play with the freedom they have for the last six weeks. It's a delicate balancing act.

Few clubs are hotter then Collingwood right now, but Geelong lift for these games and my tip has changed about 10 times this week.

But right now my gut feel says the Pies face the best chance they have in a long time to beat this Cats team, if they don't do it saturday night, they never will. Especially in September.

Collingwood by 2 points

Preview - Sydney vs Hawthorn - Round 19

2010-08-03T11:51:00.000-07:00

Sydney vs Hawthorn - Saturday - SCG

Sydney - 8th - 9-9 - 101.22%
Hawthorn - 6th - 9-8-1 - 106.71%

Sydney and Hawthorn will lock horns on Saturday afternoon in a traditional eight point game.
The loser faces a battle to remain in the eight, the winner would appear a good chance to host a final in the first week.

For the Hawks it is a case of deja vu from last week. They once again face a bogey side on a traditional bogey ground.

Hawthorn have only produced one victory from their previous eight trips to the Sydney Cricket Ground but did knock the Swans off in a tight game earlier this season, admittetdly in Melbourne.

They enter this game on the back of a dissapointing and potentially costly loss to Port Adelaide at Aami Stadium last week.

With that loss went any chance of top four, but they need to make sure they bounce back this week and keep themselves above the likes of Melbourne and the Kangaroos coming from below.

Cyril Rioli will miss the next two weeks on the back of a suspension for an uncharacteristic snap just before three quarter time.

His loss will hurt them as he has added genuine pace to a midfield that whilst classy and tough, did lack a bit of leg speed.

Shaun Burgoyne has contributed to that as well but Rioli has been a huge factor in their revival.

Against Sydney, a side that can be susceptible to line breaking runners they will feel his absence.

On the positive for Hawthorn, they have a large host of in form runners with the likes of Birchall, Mitchell, Ellis, Young, Bateman, Burgoyne, Lewis and Hodge all playing good consistent football.

Hodge was well held last week, and will be keen to atone on Saturday, so expect a big game from the brownlow contender.

Franklin appears in really good touch, but needs to keep his head. He has given away 7 free kicks and 5 fifty metre penalties in the last two weeks and that is the kind of thing that can cost a team games.

His movement, marking and presence are as prominent as ever, he just needs to be a touch smarter.

Roughead had a quiet one last week after a solid couple of weeks, and Osborne and Young are providing plenty of goals in general play.

Their defence last week had it's worst collective game in a while with Gilham, Stratton and Murphy all lowering their colours but this Sydney forward line has struggled to hit the scoreboard over recent weeks and whilst tricky shouldn't stretch them too much.

Simon Taylor got through his VFL game well last week but I'd expect the club to persist with the Renouf/Skipper combination at least for the time being as it offers them far more versatility around the ground.

An important area of focus is contested ball. Hawthorn have averaged 15 more contested posessions then their opponents over the last six weeks and this is also an area the swans thrive on.

Sydney concede the fewest stoppage first posessions of any club, but have slipped badly in the past fortnight.

In the last two weeks Sydney have also averaged 56 tackles a game which is about 9 below their season average.

They need to rediscover their trademark pressure skills otherwise the season will dissapear before they know it.

Footskills have also fallen away for the Swans. They conceeded 9 goals from turnovers against the slick Cats, and 10 against the Dees the week before.

Hawthorn are another team with very good foot skills and they will slaughter Sydney if they falter again.

Adam Goodes remains a shining light for the Swans, and Mcglynn will be keen to impress against his old side.

The nuggety onballer/forward has been in very impressive form this season and will loom as a key man to restrict for the Hawks.

Jesse White struggled again last week as the Swans continue to miss Daniel Bradshaw but he remains the best option and they have to persist and hope he turns the corner.

Much like Hawthorn, Sydney generate a lot of run off half back through Nick Malceski, Tadhg Kennelly and Marty Mattner.

All three of those have been quite lately so the order of the day will be to free them up and release them into space.

Ted Richards and Heath Grundy appear set to get the big jobs on Franklin and Roughead, and they are really feeling the absence of Lewis Roberts Thompson and Craig Bolton.

They need to drop a few numbers back as they are both very dangerous match ups for the Swans.

Mattner should get Osborne, although Osborne might be given a negatting role on Malceski as he has done similar in recent weeks to good affect.

Gibson or Stratton will more then likely take Goodes. Whilst Gilham will take White and I suspect Guerra might get Ryan O'Keefe.

Moore might tag Hodge, or perhaps Mitchell in midfield but looking accross the board, this Swans side is a bit younger in 2010, and I think lacks the spread of options accross the board to match it with the competitions better sides.

Hawthorn despite last week's loss are still a top side and I think Franklin, Roughead, Hodge, Lewis, Mitchell, Young, Osborne etc offer too much talent spread for Sydney to contain.

If they can tie up Hawthorn in the clearances and start to control the tempo they can bottle them up on the smaller ground which they do play a lot better then ANZ Stadium.

However I don't think Sydney are going well enough to do it at this stage and are in grave danger of missing the finals.

Hawthorn on the otherhand will be safe come Saturday Night.

Hawthorn by 21 points

Preview - North Melbourne vs Fremantle - Round 19

2010-08-03T07:19:00.000-07:00

North Melbourne vs Fremantle - Etihad Stadium - Saturday

North Melbourne -9th- 8-10 - 83.25%
Fremantle -5th - 12-6 - 115.62%

Etihad Stadium will play host to a game of great significance for both the Kangaroos and Dockers on Saturday and promises to be an intriguing contest.

If Fremantle win this, the lingering hope of top four remains alive, whilst if the Kangaroos win, then all of a sudden finals could be on the radar.

Both results would be a tremendous achievement given where these two clubs were viewed at the start of the year.

Brad Scott and Mark Harvey are in many ways the two coaches of the year. Throw in Mick Malthouse and probably Damien Hardwick and I reckon you have your nominations.

Scott in his first year at the helm has produced some great results for the Kangaroos, but the one concern is the tendency for them to become totally uncompetitive when the tide turns against them.

Last week they trailled by 13 points late in the third term and ended up losing by 71. This has been a familiar story in many games this year but it must be remembered that there are quite a few players out of their side at present through injury.

What they are doing though is developing a nice midfield group, some quality key backs and a future gun centre half forward in Lachie Hansen.

It's all about future seasons for North Melbourne and a finals berth this year would be a bonus, but in saying that, they are only one game out at the moment with both Sydney and Carlton struggling.

Fremantle have lost their last two at Etihad and are also missing a host of players so North Melbourne will face a real opportunity this week.

Fremantle are a far better side then North Melbourne, but they are still vulnerable on the road, and with Tarrant, Ballantyne, Mayne, Barlow and Palmer out of the side, the dockers are missing some real quality.

Lachie Hansen is one of the real improvers this season, and Aaron Edwards has had a positive impact since his inclusion to the side.
He still has his critics Edwards, but he provides a contest, usually snags a couple of goals each week and is deceptively quick on the lead.
He isn't a star but he is clearly in their best 22.

Lindsay Thomas is the type of player who needs a few weeks to build his momentum back after a spell, so expect a better showing from him, hopefully Ben Warren can return as well, and the spread of goals from midfield options has been a positive.

Greenwood, Swallow, Harvey and co are all capable of pushing forward and hitting the scoreboard.

Fremantle have had no problems sharing the goals around either, 24 majors last week for the Dockers who are the third highest scoring team in the competition.

Defensively they can be vulnerable, and the absence of Chris Tarrant was a clear issue last week, with no solid match up for Mark Lecras.

Mcpharlin and Grover are good talls, but they can be exposed by quicker leading forwards so Thomas and Edwards are two who could give them some grief.

Hayden Ballantyne's absence will be an issue for them as well but the improved form of Hill, Fyfe, Hasleby and Michael Johnson still makes Freo very dangerous in attack.

They are statistically the best team in the comp for scoring once inside fifty so the Roos will need to apply the sort of pressure on the ball carrier that has brought the Dockers undone a couple of times in the past month if they are to keep their season alive.

The Dockers won the contested posession count for the first time in eight weeks last week to arrest an alarming slump, so that will be good for the confidence.

North Melbourne conversely are 15th for contested posessions and 14th for clearances in the competition this year.

However they are the second best hit out team in the comp, with McIntosh and Goldstein capable of making life difficult for Aaron Sandilands.

Both of these sides play on frequently, and are attacking free flowing teams who win a lot of uncontested footy.

Six of the Roos eight wins this year have come at Etihad Stadium, whilst conversely three of Fremantle's six losses have been at the venue.

Grover should play on Edwards, McPharlin will take Hansen and Roger Hayden is the key man to get third up at contests and help out where necessary.

Michael Firrito could get the most important job in the game, and run with Matthew Pavlich.
He has the body size to match him and has run through the middle so should have the tank as well.

Pav was superb last week and holds the key for Fremantle.

North Melbourne's record against top sides is poor, but with the utmost respect to Fremantle, they don't quite have the same aura as the rest of the comp's top echelon at this stage.

And whilst the Roos are undermanned, Fremantle's outs are structurally of greater significance and I think North Melbourne have enough skillful runners through the middle of the ground at the moment to cause headaches for a Fremantle side that although impressive last week, is still showing signs of fatigue at the end of a long season.

The Kangaroos will sneak home in a very good game of footy, take their biggest scalp of the year and keep the race for 8th spot alive.

North Melbourne by 9 points

Preview- Essendon vs Carlton - Round 19

2010-08-02T11:42:00.000-07:00

Essendon 12th - 7-11 - 87.19%
Carlton 7th - 9-9 - 102.64%

Crunch time awaits the Blues this Friday night as they face another old foe under lights at the MCG.

This week's clash with Essendon is make or break for the Blues who have lost five of their past seven and have copped it from all angles after their meek capitulation to Collingwood last week.

The final margin was 48 points, but that was flattering for them there is no doubt about it.

From the seven minute of the first quarter, until the 21 minute mark of the third, Carlton had one scoring shot.

That is one legitimate scoring shot in 71 minutes of football. Now yes they were playing the rampaging Magpies but that is an embarrassing stat for a side in contention for finals.

If they lose this game, they are highly unlikely to figure in september and when you consider they were 7-4 at the half way mark and eyeing a top four berth you can understand why Brett Ratten had some stern words to his boys after the game.

Terry Wallace labelled Carlton's midfielders as a group of downhill skiers late last season and it's hard to argue with that assesment right now.

Chris Judd does it all and he cannot be questioned, but Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson, Scotland etc all look good when the Blues are running in waves, but apply some solid pressure on them, and launch attacks the other way, and they go missing far too often.

They need to fight and compete and defend. That means chasing back defensively as hard as you would when your own sides wins posession.

It sounds harsh but not enough of them are prepared to do that when it really matters.

Carlton have a very talented line up, and are the most capable of all the sides 7-11 on the table of doing damage in September.

They have slaughtered St.Kilda and Geelong this year, and have three wins interstate.

So at their best they are fantastic, but that small/mobile forward line has been cramped up over the last couple of months.

O'Hailpin has lost form, Henderson will be very good but is only 20 years of age and needs time and it's hard to expect Garlett, Yarran and Betts as three smalls to maintain the rage all season as good as they have been.

This is why I think they need to decide where they want Jarrod Waite to play and just settle him into that spot.

For mine, that needs to be accross half forward. He has strong hands, holds his position well in a contest, is a neat kick and has plenty of experience.

Yes from time to time, match up's might force him into defence every four or five weeks but on the whole he needs to play forward as that's where they need him most.

For the Bombers, the lingering flicker of light that is a September berth hovers on the horizon once more.

It is highly unlikely they will get there but you never know, this side can look pretty good when they play with confidence and they certainly did that last week.

St.Kilda is fast becoming their bunny but you still have to play well and the Bombers put in their most complete performance since a victory over the Bulldogs in Round 10.

The return of Monfries, Hille and Fletcher has been very important for them and it helps them structure up to maximum affect.

Gumbleton's injury is a blow and might force Hurley to return to the front half after the gun youngster played his best game to date at centre half back last week.

Winderlich should return to help bolster the midfield stocks that have already been given a lift by the inclusion of Houli (surprise surprise), young Colyer and Brent Prismall.

Defensively is where they would have been most pleased last week. Hocking and McVeigh were excellent as well as Fletcher, Hooker and Hurley.

It has been their achilles heel for probably three years so they would have been delighted with that form.

The problem for the Bombers has been consistency, and much like Carlton they have had real problems containing opposition momentum.

Both of these sides are very good offensively, but can be exposed going the other way, and whilst Essendon were super last week, they have been vulnerable over the past two to three months through a lack of defensive pressure through the middle.

Chris Judd should play and his presence might ultimately be the deciding factor if Carlton are to overcome a horror run against their much hated rivals with Essendon having won the past six.

Expect a fired up Carlton this week, they have been attacked by all and sundry over the last few days, with past players, supporters and even Brett Ratten delivering some scathing assesments of recent performances and it's natural that a team comes out breathing fire after such a thing.

For Essendon, like everyone, you hate playing a team with it's backs to the wall but they have plenty of motivation of their own. A chance to potentially end the season of a rival and to build momentum yourself towards 2011 should be big factors for the Bombers.

In the middle, the Blues might throw Richard Hadley a lifeline. He has had numerous chances but was in the best again last week for the Bullants and Carlton had planned for either Hadley or Mclean to play the enforcer/protector role in the middle of the ground but that hasn't worked out.

One thing Hadley will do though is compete and they should give him a crack.

He may get a negating job on Jobe Watson or Brent Stanton, and Grigg also might be used as a stopper.

Andrew Welsh will come into calculations for Essendon to take Judd or Murphy but expect a fairly entertaining battle accross the board in the engine room.

Fletcher and Hooker should get Henderson and Waite in attack (if he plays there), and Hurley should get released forward.

McVeigh will get Betts and Hocking should get Yarran.

Bower will take Hurley if he goes forward, and Jamison should get the slower Neagle.

Walker will be a good match up for Monfries as the lively Bomber was a real threat last week.

This is the first of a host of difficult games to tip this week as both sides have been a real enigma over the season.

Carlton have so much on the line though and after a week in the spotlight they should edge out Essendon in a ripper contest.

If you line then up side by side Carlton just look a little bit more polished and if they can find some space which the Bombers can provide you from time to time, they should get enough quality ball forward to produce the goods.

Carlton by 6 points

Preview - Fremantle vs Westcoast - Round 18

2010-07-29T06:52:00.000-07:00

Fremantle vs Westcoast - Subiaco - Sunday

Westcoast 16th - 4-13- 78.40%
Fremantle 5th - 11-6 - 111.62%

Derby number 32 will be full of the usual intrigue this Sunday when Fremantle and Westcoast lock horns at Subiaco.

Last week Westcoast missed a golden opportunity to drag themselves off the bottom of the ladder when they led Carlton by more then four goals at half time.
But like so many times before this season, they were found wanting after the long break and remain anchored on just 16 points at the foot of the table.

For Fremantle, there would have been a few concerns over the preceeding three weeks leading up to the Bulldogs game.
Those concerns were well and truelly intensified when they succumbed to the tune of 82 points at Etihad Stadium and dropped out of the top four for the first time in ten weeks.

Admittedly six or seven of the side's best 22 were unavailable, but the concerning past was they looked tired.
Young sides often can hit a bit of a roadblock at this stage of the season and it does look like that has happened to the purple army.

Their intensity, gut running, accountability etc has fallen away, offensive and defensive pressure too.

A damning stat is Fremantle have lost the uncontested posession count in each of their last five games, dating back to the split round by an average of 54.

Last week they conceded 302 uncontested posessions to the Bulldogs. The most they have conceded since late 2008.

This indicates they aren't running as hard to cover space, and they aren't pressuring opposition sides to the level they are normally accustomed too.

They also conceded 29 points from turnovers last week, their second worst in a game this season so their skills have dropped away too.

Guys like Hill, Duffield, Ibbotson etc aren't having the same impact, and with Barlow gone, Fyfe, Hasleby etc battling injury niggles it is no surprise they have dropped off.

However whilst the early part of this report would suggest doom and gloom, Fremantle still sit 5th, only percentage out of the four, and with a difficult yet not horrendous run home.

Top four is not out of the question, and at the very least they should host a final in the first week both of which would be good results for this club given where they came from last year. Fantastic even!

David Mundy returns this week, and he has been excellent. Sadly it comes at the expense of Rhys Palmer, so the midfield group is unable to settle.

Tarrant and Bradley return to add Key position strength and tigthen up that defence.

Expect Hayden or Tarrant who is deceptively quick to get Le Cras. Probably Hayden I would think.

Grover should get Kennedy with McPharlin likely to take Lynch if he starts forward.

In the middle Suban might get a role running with Priddis who is still the main clearance man for the Eagles.

Westcoast lose the experience of Selwood to a shoulder injury, and also the youthful excitement of Ashton Hams who will miss a month after a crude hit on Dennis Armfield last week.

An extended bench has been named, but given the running strength of Freo (at their best), I would expect Swift and Jones to be the two who play.

The Eagles were very good for half of last weeks game, but as is so often the case they fell away. It was particularly dissapointing given they had a great win on the road the previous week, and had jumped to a 26 point half time lead on home soil.

To lose convincingly from there is a clear indication that the Eagles are at best bottom four, and a more then worthy wooden spoon winner if it goes that way.

Whilst we have spoken about Fremantle's outside freeze in recent weeks, they are still one of the more improved stoppage teams in the comp.

Westcoast conversely have lost the contested posession count in all bar three games this season, they have also conceeded more points then anyone else bar Essendon, 105 a game on average to be exact, and Fremantle still have a lot of fire power in the front half.

Brown or Mackenzie will have the tough job of manning Pavlich in attack and depending on how high up the ground he goes, they might sacrifice height for running power and strength and hence Shannon Hurn might get the job.

Mundy will be tagged, but it's a question of who is capable of doing the lock down role.

Perhaps Waters might get a crack at it, or they will back themselves head to head through Masten, Ebert, Embley, Priddis and co.

Never write off the underdog in a derby, and for that end Westcoast are a chance.

They pushed Fremantle hard when they met earlier this year, and it was only the way they butchered the ball going forward that cost them that game.

The problem is for the Eagles that is an all too familiar story.

Fremantle aren't firing on all cylinders by any means, but amidst all the apparent questions one thing we do know is they are still a far better side then their cross town neighbours.

And try as they might, the Eagles won't get them Sunday

Fremantle by 17 points

Preview - Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Round 18

2010-07-29T02:06:00.000-07:00

Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne - Etihad Stadium - Sunday

Western Bulldogs 4th - 11-6- 137.98%
North Melbourne 9th - 8-9 - 86.05%

The first glimpse of the Western Bulldogs post Jason Akermanis could not have been more positive. If you were looking for a re-affirmation that the boys from the kennel could still win the flag, you didn't have to wait long to get it.

North Melbourne on the other hand were faced with the opportunity to take a big stride towards a top eight berth last week and fell three points short in an eventful clash with Essendon.

It wasn't the Roos night it's fair to say!, Grima and Pratt late withdrawals, then a last minute injury to Daniel Wells throwing early planning into chaos.

Combine that with the near twenty minute delay in getting an answer from the AFL on the rules in regards to emergencies and it is not the ideal start to a game by any means.

However despite the loss of key players, and the unusual start, North Melbourne fought their way to a nine point lead half way through the last quarter and probably should have gone on to win the game.

The fact that they didn't could ultimately cost them a spot in the eight, but Sunday's game is a win they may not have bargained on, so to pinch one back this week will put them back in the mix.

However to do that, they will have to overcome a Bulldogs side that has regained it's mojo in the last three weeks.

Big wins over the Blues, Port Adelaide and Fremantle has put them into the top four for the first time in many weeks and once again premiership talk is on the agenda.

The run and spread, the goal kicking depth, the precise ball movement and most importantly the hunger is back for the Bulldogs.

With Mitch Hahn still to return, and more miles in the legs of Brad Johnson between now and the finals things are starting to roll at the right time of the year.

Last time these sides met, the Bulldogs dominated, and it was their ability to create space and destroy North Melbourne on the turnover that was the telling factor.

If the Kangaroos relinquish clearance control this week, like they did against the Bombers, the result will get ugly.

The Bulldogs average ten more stoppage first posessions then their opponents this year which is the best in the competition, and twice as much as the next best discrepancy.

The Kangaroos are conversely ranked 15th for first posession at stoppages and last time they played the Bulldogs, they conceeded 39 points directly from stoppages.

They will need to tighten up this week particularly in defensive fifty, last week the Bombers had 40 uncontested posessions in the forward fifty against North Melbourne, and a similar stat would be fatal.

For the Kangaroos, their midfield is more then capable, it's a case of consistent pressure on opposition stoppage players.

Swallow and Harvey were superb in the second half last week, and Cunningto, Bastinac, Adams, Greenwood and co are capable of making life difficult for the Bulldogs, despite their own midfield group being in outstanding form.

The roos do however have a tendency to change the way they play when facing the better sides. Yes, part of the reason for their poor showing against the competitions best teams is due to them not being quite up to it, but they also go into their shell a bit.

Players don't take the game on to the same extent when they face the top echelon of teams.

When playing positive pro-active football, the Roos look fantastic, but at times they are very hesitant. Slow patient build ups, almost afraid to make mistakes.

The problem with this approach is their skills won't hold up long enough against the best teams to play such a slow and steady style of footy.

North Melbourne are developing very well under Scott in his first season, and consistency will come, it's just a question of time.

However to take the scalp of a high quality in form side will do wonders for them.

Grima, Pratt, Thompson and McMahon will get the jobs on the in form Bulldogs forward line, and Thompson undoubtedly will get Hall.

McIntosh and Goldstein should just edge out Hudson and Roughead in the ruck, largely due to the inexperience of the younger Roughead, but the Bulldogs clearance players appear in too good a form.

As good as North have been at times, Boyd, Cross, Griffen, Cooney, Gilbee etc are far too strong at the moment to succumb in this clash.

If the Roos win, they probably play finals, if they lose, they are very much unlikely to get there, so it is a huge game, and the for the competition's sake, it wouldn't be the worst result by any means.

But the Bulldogs have just snared a top four position and won't be relinquishing that any time soon.

Bulldogs by 28 points

Preview - Richmond vs Adelaide Round 18

2010-07-28T11:19:00.000-07:00

Richmond vs Adelaide - MCG - Sunday

Richmond 15th -5-12 - 71.40%
Adelaide 10th - 7-10 - 92.70%

This week pits two of the big improvers in the second half of the season at the MCG for another crucial clash.

Ladder positions are inconsequential right now for the Tigers, but they need to bounce back to form after a dissapointing fortnight.

For the Crows a win here keeps the glimmer of hope for September alive.
Last week they probably did their dash, but with North Melbourne and Sydney also losing, they remain in the hunt. But only just!

Richmond had won five games in six weeks before their dissapointing loss to North Melbourne, but in fairness they had been up for a while, and a let down was to be expected.

Then came last week where the Tigers met the competitions form side Collingwood and had to do it without three of their best clearance players, and two quality key backs out of the side.

It always had the potential to get ugly and that's exactly what happenened. A hefty defeat would have hurt them given the progress they have made this year, so this week it is important that they get the wheels back on the track and keep on building.

It's not so much the wins and losses that matter, but more the continued improvement of the kids, and the structuring up of a highly competitive game plan.

For most of the season, they get a big tick in both boxes, but they would want to avoid a fade out from here and a dissapointing end to the season.

The only write off game between now and the end of the year is St.Kilda so the Tigers have some opportunities to assert themselves going into the off season.

Last time these teams met, both were at 0-6. Adelaide won that day, but the reality is since then the Crows have gone 7-4, and the Tigers have gone 5-6, so it's a vastly different scenario to what it was then, and hence we should see a very good game.

Adelaide pride themselves on being really solid around the stoppages when in form, and also on their ability to structure up really well defensively.

Last week they allowed Port Adelaide far too much freedom, and gave up at least five really soft goals at important stages.

If they are slack in this area, Richmond will hurt them more then Port were able too, and Jack Riewoldt could kick a bag.

Richmond were also smashed in stoppages last week, Collingwood had 43 more contested posessions and looked far too mature for the young Tigers group.

Adelaide won't pose the same level of threat, but Richmond still need to sharpen up.

In the last three weeks the Tigers have conceded 15 marks Inside fifty per game, ranked second last in the competition, so once again this points to a drop off in physical intensity.

This happens with young groups, and with confidence could return quickly, as for the best part of two months, Richmond were one of the competitions best sides in terms of clearances, defensive pressure and contested ball.

It's a matter of re-discovering the balance.

Adelaide have won a clearance from an impressive 41% of stoppages in the past five weeks and Scott Thompson, Bernie Vince and David Mackay have been big factors in that.

The ongoing mystery of Simon Goodwin's return will be a key factor in this game. He was tremendous at his last start against Geelong and will be missed if he isn't back.

Graham Johncock will miss through suspension, Mcleod is still a fortnight away and Phil Davis is no certainty to return, so the Crows defence is missing a few of it's key running cogs.

Nathan Bock and Ben Rutten have both improved in form, although Bock is more of a stopper these days, as opposed to the offensive weapon he was as recently as 2008.

Bock should get Riewoldt as he is a bit quicker. Physically Rutten could handle Jack, but on the lead I think junior Roo would get away from him too much.

Johncock might have got either Nahas or the lively Andrew Collins so he will be missed.

At the other end, the Crows will need more from Tippett who has been poor for two weeks. Moore or McGuane will play on him.

Henderson, Sloane, Porplysia, Dangerfield and Walker are all contributing at present and that will put pressure on the Tigers backs.

Taylor Walker looms as the most dangerous of those and it wouldn't at all surprise if Hardwick sticks to his guns and backs one of his emerging kids for this role.

David Astbury is the man I'm referring too and he has been very impressive this year, expect him to do a job.

Newman should get Henderson and try to hurt him the other way, Edwards or King will take the Porpoise, and Deledio will try to zone off half back, but in all likelihood will get tagged.

Daniel Jackson's return in the middle will be significant as well, and he should tag Scott Thompson who has been excellent of late.

They have missed him greatly in recent weeks, and with Cotchin still out for three, they need the mature physical players in the middle of the ground to carry the load.

Adelaide's mind set will interest me as well. Do they still think they are alive? Or did last week knock the stuffing out of them after a hard fought recovery? It will be interesting to see which Crows side turns up.

Adelaide have dominated Richmond for the last 8 years having won 13 of the past 14 meetings between these clubs by an average of 39 points.

This is another difficult game to tip given the outs in both sides.

Adelaide last week lost several key players prior to the game and it played a large factor in their defeat.

Richmond also were quite undermanned so it might come down to who gets more players back this week.

Two burning questions...Can the Crows cover their injuries and continue to lift after a trying season?
And can the Tigers recapture the form of a fortnight ago?

I think the answer to both is yes, which makes this the hardest game of the round to tip (Despite what I said in the Brisbane v Melbourne preview).

I just somehow think the latter is more likely though, and come Sunday night, the race for the finals will be down to nine.

Richmond by 3 points

Preview - Round 18 Brisbane vs Melbourne

2010-07-28T08:29:00.000-07:00

Brisbane vs Melbourne - Gabba - Saturday Night

Brisbane 14th - 5-12- 79.32%
Melbourne 11th - 6-10-1 - 94.21%

Brisbane return to the Gabba this week to take on a Melbourne side that continues to show glimpses of a bright future.

The year has been inconsistant for the Dees, but every now and then you see a sign of what will lie in store for the red and the blue over the next four to six years.

For the Lions, last week I said it was all about effort, and commitment, and on that level they passed against Geelong.

It seems strange to say that when you lose a game by ten goals, but plenty of sides have that fate fall on them at Kardinia Park.
However I just felt at least for the most part, that the Lions showed some commitment and intensity.

Harwood, Banfield, Rockliff, Redden and Cornelius are five kids who can take them places in the future.

Throw in Polkinghorne, Collier, Rich, Mitch Clark and a few other youngsters and the Lions have a platform to redemption.

They won't challenge for a flag for at least three years but they can play finals in 2011.

2010 however, we all agree is a write off, but young players need wins to help re-inforce the message going forward.

It seems ironic that Brisbane topped up to win a flag this year, yet in a season of doom and gloom it is the kids who are offering a shining light.

Plenty of kids offering a shining light at Melbourne too!, last week was the most complete performance by the Dees in a game since their last finals appearance in 2006.

To dismantle a hard nosed disciplined Sydney side is something quite special.

At times Melbourne have produced some poor form this year, and that is too be expected.

The one missing piece is consistency for this side.

Melbourne leading up to the Essendon game had been in poor form, having played well once in eight weeks. But the last three weeks have seen two wins, and a tight loss to Fremantle at Subiaco.

That performance on the road should give them some belief though as they have been notoriously poor travellers.

If they win this game, there is an outside chance they can make the finals. However I'm not convinced that would be a positive.

Essendon last year made the eight ahead of schedule and may be paying the price for that now.

The difference in expectation Melbourne would carry into 2011 if they make the eight this year would be enormous.

Regardless of what happens this year, it is all about future premiership tilts for Melbourne, and whether they finish 8th or 9th this year, that doesn't change.

The only thing that would increase is pressure.

Melbourne will fall short of the eight anyway so it doesn't matter, but that's just a theory I share.

Melbourne must rectify their starts on the road if they are to be any chance. They have led once at quarter time in their last eleven interstate games. If you drop behind the eight ball when playing on the road, you get the crowd involved and more often then not your in trouble.

A couple of key areas for Melbourne include their efficiency Inside Fifty, they are ranked second for scores once inside fifty this year, averaging scores 32% of the times they go forward.

They score heavily from turnovers which helps catch defences off guard. Melbourne are highly effective at going coast to coast, and skill wise, they cut it with the best.

Their clearance work needs some attention, particularly when they play the top sides, as you cannot rely purely on rebound goals.

Melbourne are ranked 15th for clearances this season, but improvement will come there as their kids mature over time.

Brisbane offensively have been ok, similarly to Melbourne, they spread well from contests, and play on frequently. It's an attractive style of footy, however they are poor defensively, conceding more uncontested posessions then any other side in the comp, and there ball use is very poor.

No-one turns it over as much as the Lions, and no-one is less effective going forward then them either.

Jonathan Brown has had a positive impact on that, and expect better from Fev this week who has been very quiet in the past fortnight.

However their last month at home has seen some solid form, with the exception of a Richmond loss they have beaten Collingwood, and pushed St.Kilda hard.

If they can repeat that dose, they could certainly win this game.

Brad Green is hovering around All Australian pace at present, and Patfull seems the logical match up for him.

At the other end, Rivers and Frawley will have the big jobs on Fevola and Brown, Cornelius could be the ace in the pack as well.

Sherman might get a reprieve, he has so much talent but has been poor all season. He must deliver more then he is right now.

Sylvia, Morton, Scully, Davey and co will compete with Black (should return), Rischitelli, Power, Rich etc for the Lions.

Mark Jamar should give the Dees the edge in the square, but Leunberger is continuing to develop and will provide a solid contest.

Melbourne appear to have more upside, and the Lions have hardly beaten anyone in three and a half months, but for some silly reason I cannot shake the feeling that the local boys might get up Saturday night.

Brown looms menacingly, and at this stage of their development, Melbourne remain shaky on the road.

It should be close, and Melbourne will be right in it, but in one of the most intriguing and difficult games of the round......Heads...Tails.....Lions

Brisbane by 2 points

Preview - Sydney vs Geelong - Round 18

2010-07-28T03:45:00.000-07:00

Sydney vs Geelong - ANZ Stadium - Saturday Night

Sydney - 8th - 9-8 - 105.04%
Geelong - 2nd - 13-4 - 145.44%

Saturday night up in Sydney presents the opportunity for redemption for the Swans who are coming off arguably their worst defeat under Paul Roos.

Unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately, depending on how you look at it, they come up against the might of Geelong under lights at Homebush.

Yes, it is possibly the toughest task in footy, but it's the kind of challenge you want when under pressure.

You have the chance to throw caution to the wind and have a real crack at one of the competitions bench mark sides.

Last year, Geelong won the corresponding fixture by five points and whilst that result may not be convincing, the fact Geelong have won the past seven meetings between the two sides certainly is.

For Geelong, the next five weeks are all about slowly ramping up the intensity before the finals.

This clash, combined with games against Collingwood, the Bulldogs and a plucky Carlton side should help fine tune them for September.

For the Swans it's all about making the eight. This has been a season of great change for Sydney, and Paul Roos should be commended for what he has managed to do with this team in his last season.

He has kept them in the mix for finals, and before last week, they were considered a moral to make the eight one last time under their 2005 premiership coach.

However last weeks result has cast serious doubts. Teams don't open the swans up like that. Eight goals conceded in a quarter twice, and 22 goals in a game.

They face a difficult run home, and with pressure coming from North Melbourne and Adelaide, they must pinch at least two wins to play finals.

Last week Sydney laid just 52 tackles, their lowest tally of the season, and they will need to apply far more pressure to Geelong.

When these two sides met in Round 7, Sydney produced the second fewest tackles they have in a game all year, and conceded 64 Inside fifties, the most they have all season.

Subsequently they lost by 67 points.

If you fail to apply pressure to the Geelong ball carriers, you will get punnished severely.

Geelong give you a chance because they always take you on. You must be very good though, and if you aren't the result's are messy.

Sydney were taken out of their comfort zone last week, and need to settle themselves down when in position.

If you force Sydney to take the game on, invariably you are taking them away from their game plan which is what Melbourne did to them so well.

Geelong are the contrast to Sydney.

Rather then a slow and patient build up, Geelong constantly take the game on and share the footy.
Sydney play on less then any other side, Geelong play on more then any other side. Sydney are the second lowest posession team in the comp. Geelong are the highest.

So one team will try to bottle the game up, the other will try to make it free flowing.

Geelong's disposal efficiency has been at 76% in the last six weeks, ranked number two in the AFL.

They will enjoy the greater space at ANZ Stadium. As a rule, the Swans play the SCG far better then the larger ground accross the harbour.

They have less space to guard at the SCG and can control the tempo of the game and the tempo of their opponents to a far greater degree.

Adam Goodes has been fantastic in the last month, he will probably push through the middle. But if he goes forward, I could see Andrew Mackie taking him.

Mackie has the height and also the engine to go with him. Someone like a Taylor or a Lonergan could be lost in traffic, and someone like Ling would get beaten in the air.

O'Keefe and Mcglynn will get close attention in the front half but much is needed from Jesse White.

He was the big hope in the pre season on the back of a solid finish to last year, but his form has been up and down all year. With no Bradshaw, he has a lot of responsibility in the forward line. He's only young, but his time needs to be soon.

Roberts Thompson and Bolton remain out for the Swans, which increases pressure on Grundy, Malceski and co down back.

Sydney's defence has stood up admirably, but Mooney, Podsiadly, Hawkins, Stokes, Varcoe and Stevie J is as stiff a challenge as they will face.

Last week was an abberation for the Swans in my oppinion, but even though they are much better then that, they aren't in Geelong's class.

Paul Roos will have them up, and the effort will be much more fierce but the Cats are purring along nicely at close to full strength and will put another notch under the belt in the lead up to another exciting finals campaign.

Geelong by 30 points

Preview - Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn Round 18

2010-07-27T23:13:00.001-07:00

Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn - Aami Stadium - Saturday

Port Adelaide - 13th - 6-11 - 79.91%
Hawthorn - 6th - 9-7-1 - 107.71%

Saturday afternoon football at Aami Stadium provides an interesting contest this week.
Hawthorn continued their resurgence last week whilst Port Adelaide produced a timely showdown victory to open the account for Matthew Primus and break the worst drought in the clubs history.

Hawthorn are in many ways experiencing the swings and roundabouts of footy.
After their slow start to the season, they were on the right end of several close games that got them back in the hunt. Tight wins over Richmond, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn and Essendon got them up and firing again.

But with top four in their sites they have gone down by two points in a see sawing affair with Geelong, and played out a thrilling draw with St.Kilda when Cyril Rioli had the game in his hands prior to a costly interchange infringement.

You win some, you lose some as they say, but the results don't cloud the facts when it comes to the Hawks. And the facts are that the hunger and drive is back in this Hawthorn team.

Their defence may be young, but they are getting the job done, the drive out of the midfield has been enormous, and the forward line is functioning well again with both Franklin and it appears Roughead in good form again.

Cyril Rioli has been that X factor. His pace and flair has been a huge boost for the Hawks since they injected it into the midfield.

Hawthorn's pressure skills have improved dramatically as well. These stats indicate usually when a side is up and about or not, and the Hawks have gone from bottom four in spoils, tackles and inside fifties conceded to top four in all of those stats.

They are also sharing the footy. Two of their last three matches have seen them have the third and fifth most disposals they have ever recorded in a game.

Lewis, Hodge, Mitchell, Sewell, Rioli, Bateman, Young and Ellis are all in good form and the run and spread of the Hawks in the glory days of 2008 are back.

They are more shaky in defence then they were back then, but that is a work in progress. Stratton looks the goods, Gilham and Gibson are solid and Murphy has improved a lot on last year.

However last week Riewoldt and Koschitzke alone took 9 marks Inside Fifty between them, but the plus side is, Port's attacking combination doesn't have two quality talls.

Jay Schulz is ok, but just ok, and the rest of their goals tend to come from Ebert, Westhoff, Grey, Motlop etc, who are mediums to smalls.

Hawthorn should have the arsenal to deal with that forward line.

Fatigue could be a factor also, Port are coming off a trip to Darwin, followed by the emotion of a showdown where they appeared to treat it as their Grand Final so the response this week will be interesting.

Warren Tredrea has provided some emotional impetus during the week with his retirement and Port Adelaide should be very keen to pay him the respect he deserves.

255 games, 549 goals, best and fairests, captain of a premiership team, it's an impressive resume for a man who made his debut in the Power's second ever game.

He has been part of the furniture since day one, and will go down probably as the club's greatest ever player.

He will be given a lap of honour this weekend and that will no doubt lift the Power.

However much like the Choco announcement from three weeks ago it will most likely be short lived.

When their confidence is up, Port are ok, and it should be up now, but against the tough disciplined sides they get worked over and found out pretty quickly, and much like the Collingwood game, expect Hawthorn to grind them into the ground eventually.

Hawthorn's rolling zone is starting to tie teams up again, and the way to counter is much the same as when you play St.Kilda, you need to use pace and precision to run the ball through the zone and try to get over the back of the defensive press and isolate the opposition defenders one on one.

Port Adelaide are the worst team at turning rebound 50's into Inside fifties, they are the worst team at turning point kick ins into inside fifties (14%) and the lowest scoring team in the competition since Round 7.

So the recipe does not smell all that flash for them.

Hawthorn historically don't enjoy Aami Stadium all that much, losing nine of their past eleven at the venue, but generally circumstances and form have been factors in that. Both of those on this occasion point to Hawthorn.

Win this, and the glimmer of top four remains alive, lose it, and the hardest road of all to a flag appears the likely outcome.

Hawthorn will have too much midfield run, and too much offensive fire power to drop this one, and will take their 10th win of the season.

Hawthorn by 32 points.

Preview Collingwood vs Carlton Round 18

2010-07-27T11:48:00.000-07:00

Collingwood vs Carlton -MCG - Saturday

Collingwood 1st - 13-3-1 - 140.14%
Carlton 7th - 9-8 - 105.97%

The Saturday Afternoon blockbusters roll on this week with arguably the fiercest rivals of all locking horns at the MCG.

Crowds of 75,000, 81,000 and 67,000 have flocked to the home of footy in the last three weeks and expect this one to hover around the high 80's as the competitions pace setters take on their most hated foe who bounced back to form with a solid come from behind win last week.

Collingwood treated Richmond with contempt last saturday with another polished performance.
Another 400 plus disposals, another nine goal kickers. Everything is running very smoothly for the Black and White army at present.

The St.Kilda win was magical, and the Richmond win was satisfying, but nothing would please Collingwood fans more then to defeat Carlton this week, and in the process put the old dark navy blue's finals chances in jeopardy.

For Carlton, last weekend was significant. At half time against the Eagles, season 2010 was going down the toilet with Carlton 26 points down, and staring at five losses in six games.

However an 11 goal to three second half was a good launching point into the last five weeks, which contains many tough games.

To please Blues fans further, North Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide and Hawthorn all failed to record victories which helped Carlton entrench themselves in 7th position.

All things being equal they should go on and play finals. Victory on Saturday would assure it!

But that is going to be a very difficult task. Carlton generally lift against the Pies, but when the two teams met earlier this year, Collingwood got hold of them in a big way with a 53 point win.

This came a week after Carlton had demolished St.Kilda so they were in some very good form at the time.

Westcoast have played both St.Kilda and the Bulldogs into form this year, so Carlton will be hoping they have done the same for them.

After Collingwood, the Blues also face Geelong and Fremantle (away) between now and September so that's a tough lead in.

Carlton used the space well at Subiaco last week, and their swarm of midfielders found some form and developed some good link work through and around the ground. The run and carry that serves them so well when up and about was evident again.

They will need to take the game on against the Pies who set up so well defensively through the corridor.

Carlton leading into last week had scored from just 17% of forward entries in the past month, ranked last.

Collingwood's defence is simply too well organised to allow the Blues to get away with suck a lack of efficiency.

Another area of concern for Carlton has been ball use. Usually a fairly skillful side, they have dropped away. Even last week they weren't all that precise.

This could be a major problem as Collingwood are number one in the AFL at scoring from turnovers.

Most of these stats indicate a bit of Jekyl and Hyde when it comes to Carlton and this is true. They generally either smash or get smashed.

Carlton have conceded 69 points a game this year when they have won, but 112 a game when they lose which is by a long way the biggest discrepency in the competition.

Collingwood's strength remains their evenness accross the board. It is hard to look at their side and pinpoint a weakness.

They have used 33 players this season which is remarkable for a top side. They are numbers conducive with a wooden spoon side. What it does though is demonstrate how deep Collingwood's list is.

They have soldiers at the ready to come in and fill any role required and it's hard not to respect the way Mick Malthouse has moulded this list over the last few years.

Didak, Thomas, Sidebottom, Beams and co are rotating through the middle and pushing forward, Leigh Brown has been enormous, and the value of Chris Dawes continues to show.

This week Travis Cloke returns, as does Heath Shaw so there are some major selection headaches for the Pies coaching staff.

You would say Lockyer may be the one to lose out for Shaw, or perhaps young Blair who has been good, but might need a spell.

Cloke would probably replace McAffer which would be cruel for the young Magpie who has had an excellent few weeks.

Collingwood are the hardest side to tackle, they have been tackled less then anyone else, and have been caught holding the ball far less then any other side.

This shows the value of their rotations, keeping bodies fresh, but also the physical maturity of the side.

Carlton, like most sides, will need to drag Collingwood back into the corridor if they are to beat them.
This takes them out of their comfort zone, and if you apply pressure and force them into error, you can get them with quick counter attacks.

Conversely, the Pies quest to victory sits with pressuring the Carlton ball carriers and denying Judd, Murphy and Simpson in particular space to use the footy.

Their forward line is lively, but needs a good food supply without some real quality talls.

I cannot see Carlton generating enough quality ball against the wealth of Collingwood stoppage players to kick a winning score in this one.

Ben Reid should get Lachie Henderson, Toovey will take Betts and at the other end, Bower should get Cloke, and Jamison will take Dawes.

Andrew Walker might run with Didak if he plays forward, or otherwise perhaps a resting onballer in the front half.

The Blues are always a chance when they face the old foe, and that will no doubt be on the minds of all Pies fans.

But come Saturday night they will be toasting their 14th win of the season, and daring to dream once more about what September just might have on the menu.

Collingwood by 27 points

Preview Essendon vs St.Kilda Round 18

2010-07-27T11:13:00.000-07:00

Essendon vs St.Kilda Etihad Stadium - Friday Night

Essendon 12th - 6-11 - 84.84%
St.Kilda 3rd - 12-4-1 - 119.77%

After last week's drama filled draw St.Kilda once again find themselves under the Friday Night lights at Etihad Stadium.

Essendon had a drama filled week of their own with a tense three point win over the Kangaroos in a confidence boosting win for the under seige group.

That result would have done wonders for the Essendon side who had lost their previous six matches, and given recent results against the Saints, they will enter this clash with a bit of confidence that an upset is not entirely out of the question.

David Hille is set to return as well which is a nice boost for the group, and he is far and away the most important player on their list right now.

Despite Essendon's good record, it is still an enormous task confronting them, especially given Jason Winderlich will be missing this week and doubts remain on star onballer Jobe Watson after he hurt a calf in last week's win.

Winderlich has been in outstanding form in the past two months but the Thorpy boy had surgery during the week on a hand injury, but is confident he will miss just the one game.

Watson had 38 touches last week and was inspirational in the middle for the Dons as they snapped their losing streak.

If both of these guys miss, it puts a ton of pressure on the likes of Stanton, Howlett, Colyer and co to carry the can in the middle.

People need to remember just how young this Essendon side is. Gumbleton, Hardingham, Hurley, Colyer, Melksham and Howlett all look the goods, and even Ryder, Pears and Monfries are relatively young.

Essendon over achieved a touch by making the eight last year, and playing finals on the back of ten wins flatters you.

They are paying the price for that a bit now, but the future doesn't look too bad, and they need to persevere, and that includes keeping faith in Matthew Knights.

The dons have exploited St.Kilda by isolating and releasing their quicker players and punching through the Saints full ground press with pace and precise ball movement.

Essendon tend to exploit teams on the turnover as well as anyone in the comp when playing well, and they scored nine of their fourteen goals against the Saints back in Round 8 exactly that way.

For St.Kilda, seven wins in a row was what they dished up prior to the Collingwood shocker which raised a few eyebrows, however they would have been pleased with they way they responded against Hawthorn, even if they were a touch fortunate to get the two points.

Dal Santo and Montagna both spent time off the ground injured, and Gilbert was well held but they managed to grind their way to a result which was pleasing in a way for them.

St.Kilda over recent times have been taking control of the uncontested ball, averaging 83 more uncontested posessions then their opponents over their past six matches at Etihad Stadium.

This suggests they are controlling the tempo of games and denying their opponents the opportunity to gain momentum, which tends to be the way they do things.

And they will need to control this stat to defeat Essendon, as they above evidence on the Bombers would demonstrate.

Essendon are a full throttle side who kick backwards less then anyone else, but also concede more marks inside defensive fifty then any other side.

This shows that they can be dynamic but at the same time can be opened up if they don't quite get it right.

They have conceded more points then any other side and with Tayte Pears and Henry Slattery out they remain vulnerable down back.

St.Kilda need to exploit some of Essendon's losses and take control around the clearances and get the ball moving forward quickly.

Schneider and Milne kicked six goals between them last week, and have been consistent goal scorers over the last three years against the Bombers.

Nick Riewoldt showed the best signs to date that he is returning to peak form with a good running and marking display last week, and even Kozi showed some signs that the wheel might be turning.

For the Saints, their finals campaign hinges on these blokes being up and firing, so it's important it continues.

Essendon have won the past two against St.Kilda, but the Saints are going a fair bit better then they were in Round 8.

Conversely the Bombers are probably faring about 25% worse then they were at that stage.

This game definitely fits into the danger game category, but St.Kilda should be a bit too mature around the stoppages and will get the job done.

All the indicators suggest it should be a comfortable St.Kilda victory over the plucky Bombers.

St.Kilda by 29 points.

Preview - Port Adelaide vs Adelaide Round 17

2010-07-22T04:15:00.000-07:00

Port Adelaide vs Adelaide - Aami Stadium- Sunday

Port Adelaide - 14th - 5-11 - 77.81%
Adelaide - 10th - 7-9 - 93.58%

Showdown 29 will see the two South Australian sides lock horns with neither having enjoyed the finest seasons of their respective histories.

The Crows however have ressurected their fortunes and could possibly still play finals in 2010 which would be a remarkable achievement given they were 0-6 at one stage.

Port Adelaide on the other hand have lost their past nine games, changed their coach, and appear set for a long and arduous rebuild over the next few years.

Last week the Crows brought down the might of Geelong to win their fourth game in a row and move to 10th on the table, just one win outside the eight.

They still need to face Collingwood, the Bulldogs and St.Kilda in the run home, as well as a rejuvenated Richmond at the MCG so the road home is difficult, but if they win this their is plenty of reason for optimism.

The Blues appear to be staggering, and the crows will at least have their destiny in their own hands again.

Port Adelaide have lost Salopek for the year in another frustrating twist on a season that promised so much when the siren sounded at Etihad Stadium in Round 7.

At that stage Port Adelaide sat fifth on the table with a 5-2 record, but it has all fallen apart since then.

And last week best summed up their season. They kicked five goals in a row against the Bulldogs to take control of the game before meekly surrendering.

Three sloppy free kicks in a row to start the second term gifted goals to the Bulldogs and the momentum swang accordingly.

Port would kick just two more goals for the game in a poor display of resistance so common with this club of late.

Adelaide's midfield group is in great form, but it is their defensive efforts that deserve a big mention from last weeks game.

The Crows were so good defensively back when they were a force in 05 and 06 but this was a super display by the whole Adelaide back six reminiscent of them at their best.

Johncock, Doughty, Stevens, Davis and Goodwin all beat their men last week and produced more spoils then I can ever remember in a game.

Combine this with the form through the middle of Mackay, Van Berlo, Vince and co, and the confident form of Walker, Dangerfield and Tippett and the mojo is back at the Crows!

If you barrack for Adelaide, this year has seen you say goodbye to some of the club's finest servants.
But you must now rest easy knowing the future seems to be in good hands.

Port key position wise are ok down back, but they will struggle to control the host of creative smaller players the crows have down there. Walker and Dangerfield certainly, but also Henderson and young Jaensch who have both been great in recent weeks.

Josh Carr has hung up the boots for the Power, he has been a wonderful player, but probably went on at least one year too long.

Chad Cornes returns in what could be the last six weeks of his career, and he tends to lift in the showdowns so expect a good showing from him.

Port are the worst tackling team in the comp, and also over the last eight weeks the lowest scoring.

Adelaide's spread of runners will exploit this, and their in form defence will compound Port's woes.

The Crows are running on confidence, and are playing too well accross the board. A disciplined well coached group will take their fifth win in a row, and keep the finals window wide open.

Adelaide by 37 points

Preview - Melbourne vs Sydney Round 17

2010-07-22T03:26:00.000-07:00

Melbourne vs Sydney - MCG - Sunday

Melbourne - 11th - 5-10-1 - 88.84%
Sydney - 6th - 9-7 - 111.28%

Melbourne and Sydney at the MCG on Sunday is one of the more intriguing games of the round.
The Swans can still finish top four, but first of all must shore up a spot in the eight, whilst the Dees can still win the wooden spoon if they stumble in the last six weeks.

However in isolation there doesn't appear to be an enormous chasm between the two sides. Experience and consistency being the notable factors.

Last week's loss to Fremantle pretty much summed up Melbourne's season. Dissapointing start, excellent recovery, but ultimately just not quite there.

So many games have played out that way for the Demons this year and last Sunday was another game they had chances to win had they been able to maintain composure.

Sydney are a side that rarely drops it's guard and opens the door, so the Dees cannot afford any slow starts this week.

Melbourne have led at quarter time just once since Round 9 and have trailed by an average of 21 points at quarter time over that period.

The Dees have only lost six second halves this year which demonstrates that they are leaving themselves too much to do after their poor starts.

Sydney, with the exception of three weeks ago against Richmond, are possibly the hardest club to overhaul when you concede a deficit as they are the masters of controlling the tempo of a game.

They also appear to have regained their mojo a bit, and are starting to get a settled line up so it will be a tough day for the exciting, yet inconsistent Melbourne side.

The Swans defensively are still missing Bolton and Lew Bob Tom, but Grundy, Mattner, Malceski, Shaw and Richards still provide a good solid mix in defence against the small-medium Melbourne forward line with Bate, Green, Watts and Jurrah.

Grundy will take Watts, Richards should get Green and Mattner might get first dibs on Bate.
Liam Jurrah is still a difficult match up and his form has been encouraging in his first two games back.

Sydney's forward line is a touch unconvential as well relying on a lot of midfield goals, on top of contributions from McGlynn and O'Keefe.

Adam Goodes return to the midfield a fortnight ago has been huge with his form returning to it's very best.

Moloney normally gets the lock down roles for Melbourne, but he won't have the height to go with Goodes in the air when he pushes forward. Maybe a Cale Morton could perhaps be an option given he played a good game last week and reads the play quite well.

Kirk, Bolton, Kennedy and McVeigh have the big bodies in the middle to work over Melbourne, who are still missing James McDonald.

The Dees are the worst centre bounce team in the comp averaging a clearance just 39% of the time.
You can't afford to relinquish posession easily against the Swans because it allows them to play the game on their own terms.

Melbourne rely on fast breaks, run and spread and procise forward entries. They only go Inside the arc about 46 times a game which is the worst in the AFL, but they have a high efficiency once inside.
Sydney are the opposite. They rely on patient build ups, strong zoning structures and an attacking half back line led by Malceski, Kennelly and Shaw.

These are their pull the trigger players. Sydney play on less then any other side in the comp, and will only go when the ball is in the hands of the right players, and the moment is right.

Sydney's style should frustrate the Demons who won't be able to generate enough run through the middle to punch through Sydney's defence given the pressure and zoning Sydney apply through the middle.

Expect a grinding affair for much of the afternoon, without a heap of goals kicked. But Sydney are on the way to another september campaign in Paul Roos's swansong and they will have enough in the bank to confine the Dees to their 11th loss of the season.

Sydney by 21 points.

Preview - Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle -Round 17

2010-07-22T01:48:00.000-07:00

Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle - Etihad Stadium - Sunday

Western Bulldogs - 5th - 10-6- 133.47%
Fremantle -4th - 11-5 - 118.87%

Whoever wins this game should go on to finish the season in fourth place and earn the prescious double chance for september.

Fremantle have spent almost the entire season in the top four but would be concerned by a few signs in the last fortnight.

Two weeks ago they were outplayed by Richmond at Etihad, and last week they very nearly surrended a seven goal lead against a struggling Melbourne side at home.

Michael Barlow has been a huge loss and is testing the depth of the midfield group in a big way.
Mcpharlin has returned in defence but they are still missing Tarrant and Grover, as well as Headland and Mayne from their attack.

Throw in the loss of Barlow and the young dockers are missing at least five members of their best 22.

You can throw in Ryan Crowley as well who will miss this week with a knee injury.

These six losses and the improved form of the Bulldogs points to a tough day at the office for the boys from WA but they haven't done much wrong this year and must still be considered a chance.

These two teams are probably the best two "touch" football teams in the competition. When given space and time they are the two teams most likely to punish you so one thing you can expect is an entertaining free flowing affair on Sunday.

Ballantyne was the match winner last week, so expect Morris or Harbrow to man up on him, probably Harbrow.
Lake would get Pavlich if he went forward, and the Dockers may also need to play both Mcphee and Johnson forward to try and stretch the Doggies given Pavlich may be required on ball to help cover a couple of key losses.

David Mundy will probably draw a defensive tag from Picken as he has been the most consistent on baller outside of Barlow for Fremantle this year.

For the Bulldogs, this has been a week in the headlines after the sacking of Jason Akermanis (a decision I agree with), and expect a fired up response as the group rallies together to push on without their controversial star.

Generally a week like this galvanises a group and the Bulldogs know what's on the line with this game.

Their last two weeks have been some of their best footy for the year and the midfield group is gaining some momentum.
Boyd, Cooney, Cross and Griffen are in excellent form and they should at this point have a bit too much experience for Fremantle in a big game environement.
Also physical maturity is important, these Bulldogs onballers have had a few years of finals experience, and most have over 100 games in the bank.
Of the Fremantle midfield group, Suban, Hill, Ibbotson, Palmer, Duffield, Mundy, only Mundy has played more then 100 games.

Sandilands v Hudson will be a good battle, Sandilands is the games best ruckmen, but Hudson is as honest as they come and a huge factor in the Bulldogs success. His physicality at the around the ground stoppages will be a good test for Sandilands as well.

Hall will return for the Doggies, and Johnson, Higgins and Murphy are slowly building.
There is no Mitch Hahn, and they will need him back for September as his forward pressure is second to none, but Jarrod Grant is playing well enough at present for the Bulldogs to function without him.

Part of the scoring dry up this year though has been due to poor delivery and a lack of offensive pressure.

The Bulldogs have turned the ball over 45% of the times they have gone inside fifty this season which is the worst in the comp.
However in the last five weeks that is down to 29% so the wheel is turning.

The Bulldogs are the number one team for uncontested posessions this year, and freo concede the most uncontested posessions which confirms the theory they are both "touch" football teams.

Both these sides are the best at punishing teams who turn the ball over so it all points to a high scoring affair.

The Bulldogs however are better prepared for that at present. They are closer to full strength, playing at home and have the runs on the board.
This young Freo outfit has been fantastic but appear to be sliding a touch as a long season catches up with them.
They will put up a fight on Sunday, and they deserve to be considered more then a mug's chance, but come Sunday night, they will sit outside the top four for the first time in a long time.

Western Bulldogs by 25 points

Preview - Westcoast vs Carlton - Round 17

2010-07-21T22:41:00.000-07:00

Westcoast vs Cartlon - Subiaco - Saturday Night

Westcoast -16th-4-12-78.55%
Carlton - 8th - 8-8 - 104.51%

Carlton's season is on the line this Saturday night when they travel to Perth to take on a Westcoast side who's last fortnight has been a vast improvement on what they have dished up for much of the year.

The Eagles had a close loss to the in form Crows, and then belted Essendon last week at Etihad to register their second win in Melbourne for the year.

Westcoast are now back in the hunt to avoid a first ever wooden spoon and will in all likelihood get off the bottom of the ladder this weekend if they can defeat the Blues.

Carlton have lost four of their past five, and the heat has been turned up on their squad, as well as coach Brett Ratten.

If they lose this one, rightly or wrongly, expect the scrutiny on Ratten to increase next week.

Carlton's midfield group has fallen away badly, with Marc Murphy not enjoying anywhere near the season he had last year, Bryce Gibbs struggling for consistency, Kade Simpson in a slight trough and Chris Judd having to shoulder much of the load.

A lot of people have questioned Judd's standing amongst the games top ten in recent weeks, and whilst I agree he has lost a bit of penetration in his kicking, he still breaks the lines, provides the crucial clearance work and creates the play like few others.

I would take him amongst the first picked in my side anyday and he is the least of their concerns.

The problem is support, he needs a bit of grunt work to help clear a path, and Brock Mclean was earmarked as that man late last year.

However injuries have affected him greatly and he hasn't been able to provide that protector role that the Blues were so eager for him to fill.

Richard Hadley is another who hasn't come on to fill that role.

At the start of the year, we were lauding the club's ruck stocks, but the loss of Kreuzer has hit them hard.

Jacobs is a second stringer playing as a first stringer, and Hampson is still pretty raw even if he looks promising.

Expect Warnock to get a reprieve this week, to mix things up a bit.

Eddie Betts has done his job in attack this year, but Yarran and Garlett as well as Eddie rely on a food supply like most small forwards and that has been dried up of late.

Setanta O'Hailpin who started the season so brightly found himself dropped last week, and Lachie Henderson isn't quite ready to fill the void in attack consistently.

The Blues have scored goals from just 17% of Inside fifties in the last month, ranked last in the competition.

In defence I think they are ok. Bower and Jamison are good young players, Armfield and Russell are both solid contributors, but Thornton remains a mystery, he has been dropped twice this year now and needs to assess where he wants to go from here.

One major problem for their defence is that a lack of midfield pressure is leaving it under the pump far to often.

If the opposition is allowed easy ball inside fifty, it doesn't matter who is down there, you will have some problems.

The Blues are conceding goals from 32% of opposition Inside Fifties in the last three weeks, the worst record in the competition as well.

For the Eagles pressure is the key. The Blues are turning the ball over more then they have all year at present, and teams have been putting the blowtorch on their midfield group.

Westcoast forced enough turnovers from Essendon to rip them apart last week, and it was their best defensive effort of the season in terms of forcing turnovers, and then scoring from them.

Sydney defeated Carlton in much the same way last week so the Eagles will no doubt have watched that.

Being a big ground, it is very important not to butcher the footy as you will be carved up in space.

Mark Lecras should get Andrew Walker as his opponent given Walker has shut down Steve Johnson already this year, Russell and Armfield will be options two and three for the inform Eagles star.

Priddis, Shepherd, Rosa, Masten, Ebert and Embley all generated plenty of drive for the Eagles last week and they are in better form right now then their Carlton counterparts.

Dean Cox showed pleasing signs given his indifferent form, and Natanui played his role superbly.

Down back they have their concerns the Eagles, but I'm not sure Carlton are in good enough form to exploit that.

Kennedy will be keen to show his old side his value and I can guarantee the Blues could do with him right now.
Expect a big game from the man with the worst kicking action in history (yet one of the most effective).

Pound for pound, Carlton are a better side then the Eagles, but on form right now they just aren't doing enough for me to be able to tip them with any confidence. The Eagles at Subiaco are about a six goal better side and they tick more boxes in this contest.

The Blues forward line is really struggling, and the pressure through the midfield is letting them down badly.

The Eagles have a sniff of confidence at present and will compound the Blues woes and deliver a savage blow to their finals chances in the process.

Westcoast by 9 points.

Preview -North Melbourne vs Essendon Round 17

2010-07-21T11:24:00.000-07:00

North Melbourne vs Essendon - Etihad - Saturday Night

North Melbourne - 9th - 8-8 - 85.15%
Essendon - 12th - 5-11- 83.60%

Etihad Stadium on Saturday Night will play host to a couple of teams who are experiencing contrasting seasons.

North Melbourne have to be admired for their efforts this season under a new coach, and they are a very real chance of tasting finals action in Brad Scott's first year.

The Bombers on the other hand are under enormous pressure.
Having played finals in 2009, this year has been a major dissapointment with six straight losses seeing them fall out of contention for September action and increasing speculation on the future of coach Matthew Knights.

Last week's loss to Wooden Spoon favourite West coast was the absolute low point on the season and whilst I believe Matthew Knights is safe at least until the end of this year, they would want to turn things around pretty quickly.
Even if just to fight off the masses for a while and ease some pressure on the proud club from Windy Hill.

David Hille's absence has been particularly telling, it has put pressure on Ryder and Bellchambers to carry the mantle in the ruck and they sorely miss his physicality and smarts around the ground at present.

No Pears, and interrupted seasons to Hooker, Fletcher and Slattery has put pressure on their already fragile defence and that has never been more evident then last week when Lecras went berserk.

Essendon's pressure skills have slipped as well, they were tackling very well Rounds 5-10 when they took the scalps of Hawthorn, St.Kilda and the Bulldogs, but have dropped away a bit since then.

This is evident by the fact that they are not forcing errors from teams.
Essendon are last for marks from opposition kicks, and also concede the second highest number of marks inside fifty in the AFL over the course of the season.

It confirms the theory that when at their worst, they can get opened up like a tin can without too many problems.

When confidence is low, you need to start well, and Essendon hasn't won a first quarter since Round 9.

They will need a solid start against the Kangaroos so their crowd can get involved and the confidence of the group can grow.

For the Kangaroos this game is a must win, 8-8 with a poor percentage so they need to win more games then Adelaide and Carlton to play finals.
If all parties finish on the same wins, the roos miss out, and this is another super important game.
The run home is tricky, but not horrible for the Kangaroos but this is one of those good old fashioned danger games that would make fans a touch nervous.

You never want to play a team that's under seige having experienced another week under the microscope, so the Kangaroos need to be wary.

Lindsay Thomas is still a couple of weeks away but the Kangaroos are demonstrating their depth of talent this year with several blokes missing a fair bit of footy through injury, and some kids stepping up into the fold.

Last week's performance was very efficient and professional by the Kangaroos who controlled the game from the get go against an in form Tigers outfit, and it demonstrates that this North side can do everything pretty well.

The key is developing some real class over the coming years, and it's hard not to see these Roos factoring prominently in the finals over the next few seasons.

Bastinac, Cunnington, Anthony (injured), Adams, Goldstein (ruck), Garlett, Ziebell and co representing a very talented future midfield group.

Their defence is well organised and efficient and their attack is starting to settle down.

They are vulnerable against the real quality teams, but that will change as their development advances over time.

If your a North Melbourne supporter, you should be reasonably pleased with what might be in store.

North Melbourne are the number one team this year for scoring from set shots, averaging 56% of their weekly score from marks or free kicks. They are also number three in the AFL for marks inside fifty so if you look at Essendon's stat on conceding marks in their defensive arc, it could be a problem for the red and black boys.

Six of the Kangaroos eight victories this seaon have come at the venue and they should make it seven on saturday night.

Lachy Hansen's mobility in attack could pose headaches as well for Essendon, with Fletcher likely to get him.

But I can see the likes of Edwards and Warren being difficult match ups for them, and they will test the defensive running of Essendon's midfielders with their spread of goals from onballers as well.

Clearance wise these teams are fairly evenly matched, but the Roos have at this stage, the more in form running outside players and therefore should create more chances then Essendon.

Watson and Stanton have far too much responsibility, but they don't hurt you as much as others with their posessions.

Winderlich is the man who will probably draw a tag for the Bombers as he is in some of the best form of his career amongst all the doom and gloom for Essendon.

But this is the Kangaroos 9th win of the season, whilst it won't be easy, and they will need to beware the wounded opponent, they should have a little too much run and depth at present to drop a game of such high importance and their bold march to September will still be well and truelly alive come 10pm Saturday Night.

North Melbourne by 16 points.

Preview- Geelong vs Brisbane Round 17

2010-07-21T08:11:00.000-07:00

Geelong vs Brisbane - Skilled Stadium - Saturday

Geelong 2nd -12-4 - 142.73%
Brisbane 13th -5-11- 81.60%

As I sit and write this report it is very difficult to get excited by a contest that has the potential to be one of the more lopsided in recent times.

The Brisbane Lions in essence are not the worst team in the competition, but in the reality of what is happening in front of us, you could mount a fair argument that they are.

The Cats are coming off a loss and will be stinging, have won 21 in a row at Skilled Stadium, have not lost in Victoria to the Lions in six years and welcome back Darren Milburn and Steve Johnson.

The recipe is not good for this one that is for sure.

The Brisbane Lions need to treat this as the start of a new beginning, a six week launching pad into 2011.

The season has been a disaster for the Lions, with a spate of injuries, a lack of confidence and a realisation of some key deficiencies that have derailed them after starting 4-0 in the first month.

Simon Black is likely to miss this week again, and there are several others out still, but the intensity last week was not acceptable.

You can be undermanned, you can be down on form, both of those are fine, but you must compete and fight hard regardless of the circumstances, and the Lions were uncompetitive last week against the Hawks.

The lowest ever recorded number of Inside 50's, 150 less disposals and just eight shots at goal for the game is the epitomy of rock bottom.

Thankfully there is only one way you go from here and that is up, and the Lions leadership group made the right statement this week by standing by Michael Voss and putting their hands up to cop some blame.

Expect a spirited showing this week from the team, but sadly that's about all they can hope for.

Sherman needs a lift, so does Mitch Clark, Luke Power seems to be approaching the finishing line and they simply do not have enough options outside of Brown and Fev.

They have a heavy reliance on those two to kick 70% of their score each week and you simply cannot compete with the best without some support and spread in attack.

Sherman has been a goal kicker but is struggling, Buchanan hasn't offered much, and the midfield goals have dried up.

Aaron Cornelius is a bloke who must surely come back in, his form had been very solid and yes he's another tall but the kid is lively, he attacks the footy hard and has good hands, they need to start blooding him.

Rockliff, Redden, Polkinghorne and co are developing well and this is where the positive lies for them going forward. The more exposure and education these blokes get can serve the club well for 2011.

When Adcock, Drummond and co return the Lions would feel with a solid pre season that they could perhaps push for the eight next year, provided they can find one or two more paths to goal.

For Geelong, last week's loss was probably coming for a while. They had lost the contested posession count in four of their previous five matches and their disposal efficiency has dropped.

Credit to the crows certainly, but when you throw in the dramas with the club doctor, and what Adelaide had on the line they were there for the taking.

This week however they return to a venue where they have won 21 straight matches. They will get a couple more players back and continue to fine tune themselves for September.

The cats have won the Inside Fifty count in 20 of those 21 matches, and the Lions are the worst team in the comp at present in restricting marks iside fifty.

Given Geelong's delivery, it could get messy if the Lions don't apply pressure through the middle.

Last time these teams met was at the Gabba and the Cats had 118 more disposals, and a 14% higher efficiceny. They also won the game by 81 points.

The Lions have been last for pressure skills, disposal efficiency, and restricting opposition forward entries in the last month and that could prove to be a lethal mix on Saturday.

Maguire may get a crack at Podsiadly with Merrett to take Mooney. Stevie J, Chapman, Stokes, Varcoe, Byrnes and co will then require attention beyond the capabilities of the Lions undermanned defence.
Patful is quite nimble, he should get Johnson.

At the other end, Scarlett will make life very tough for Fevola, Harry Taylor or Lonergan to get dibs on Brown. So even though the two key Lions loom as a threat every time they play, the Cats are more then equipped to limit them, especially if the Lions enter the forard arch as rarely as they did last week.

Ottens is tracking along better with each passing week, and the Cats midfield depth will be far too strong for a Lions side nursing a couple of out of form players, and minus the superstar Simon Black.

Bartel, Selwood, Ablett and co will have a picnic on Saturday afternoon as it's hard to picture the Lions being able to put the clamps on them.

The order of the day for Brisbane is to compete, fight and scrap, and work for each other to put the wheels in motion for the ressurection of the club going into 2011.

For Geelong it's about steadying the ship, banking another four points, getting out injury free and moving on to next week.

Often these games can be uneventful low scoring routs, such as a 16 goal to 5 result and I suspect we will get similar here.

The classy Geelong side will do exactly what they have to do and nothing more.

Geelong by 61 points.

Preview - Collingwood vs Richmond - Round 17

2010-07-20T23:06:00.000-07:00

Collingwood vs Richmond at the MCG- Saturday

Collingwood 1st - 12-3-1 - 135.06%
Richmond 15th - 5-11- 74.19%

Two traditional rivals going head to head on a Saturday afternoon in Melbourne for the third weekend in a row, perhaps we are on to something!

This time it is a rampaging Collingwood side who sit atop the ladder after Round 16 for the first time since that famous 1990 season, and a young Richmond side who's remarkable resurgence hit a road block last week against North Melbourne.

Nevertheless expect up to 75,000 people to attend this game even if that is about 10-15 short of what the AFL would have got had the Tigers entered the clash on the back of five consecutive wins.

Collingwood supporters will be out in force like never before as they smell the distinct whiff of a premiership in the air after beating St.Kilda convincingly last week.

Collingwood had lost their last seven clashes combined against St.Kilda and Geelong and the missing piece of the puzzle was a scalp against one of the competitions top two teams to really show they have what it takes. That piece has been firmly knocked into place.

Richmond have taken many steps forward this year, even if the ladder still reads 15th place.
Given people's expectations at the start of the season, to be 5-11 from 16 rounds is a super turn around, all things being considered.

But it is super important not to drop the ball now. The Tigers were poor last week and can't afford to get blown away by Collingwood this week as it could seriously affect the confidence of the group and they owe it to themselves to avoid that.

The last six weeks present many chances for the Tigers, who should finish the season with seven-eight victories but a big hit this week could rock the pysche of the group which they need to guard against.

Jackson, Cotchin and Foley will all miss this week who are three of the club's best five clearance players so it's difficult to see Richmond legitimately having a chance at winning this one given those outs and the fact their opponents are flying.

Blockbuster fatigue has been mooted this year by many, but every game the Pies play is a big one and they won't allow that too happen on Saturday.

The depth of the Magpies squad has been a huge factor in their season so far, Wellingham and Thomas have taken steps forward this season, and the introduction of Ball and Jolly, as well as the further development of Blair, Beams, Dawes and Sidebottom has seen the club build significantly on last season.
Leigh Brown has been pivotal as well in not only potentially ending the career of Josh Fraser, but adding versatility to the Magpies who can get away with selecting just one specialist ruckmen.

Richmond's use of the ball and clearance dominance have been the cornerstones of their improvement, but a let down seemed inevitable given they had been riding a wave of confidence for more then a month.

Young sides often produce shockers out of nowhere and that happened for the Tigers last week.
They shouldn't necessarily be alarmed, and would be better inclined to see it as a wake up call and a reminder of the work that still needs to be done.

Connors, White, Edwards, King are four players who entered this season at the crossroads and all have improved to the point of securing their positions for 2011 and adding plenty to this Tigers line up.

Martin, Astbury, Nason, Webberly, Graham, Collins and Vickery are kids to have had a big impact this year, and of course Jack Riewoldt who is now the competitions most dangerous forward.

The Tigers are fast on the way to becoming a very good side and demand the respect of Collingwood this week, despite three significant midfield absentees.

Riewoldt will face a stiff test this week, not just against veteran defender Simon Prestigiacomo but also the entire defensive unit of the Magpies with O'Brien, Goldsack, Toovey and Shaw all prepared to leave their man and role over to be third man in and help nullify the Tigers star.

It might be wise to bring in a Mitch Morton this week to help take some pressure off Jack.
Mitch kicked three goals last week and looked lively for Coburg, he still has a place in this team I believe.

McGuane was good last week, and should get Dawes. Leon Davis and Allan Didak will most likely get Jake King and Shane Edwards as opponents and their will be no love lost between King and the Magpies with the nuggety Tiger suspended in each of his last two meetings between the teams.
Richmond also feel that King was "dobbed in" last time these two teams met in a practice match in what is a breach of the old players code, so expect plenty of feeling between these fierce rivals.

Collingwood have been the second most effective team once inside fifty in the last six weeks and the Tigers can leek goals when slightly off so it's important they apply pressure to the Pies at all stages.

Richmond's strength is around the stoppages, they deny opposition first posession more then anyone else at the moment, and concede the fewest scores from clearances, they will need to make do without Cotchin for the next month which will no doubt hurt, but it gives the chance for someone else to fill the void and take their chance at an AFL career.

This game has the potential to be a belting, but I think Richmond are made of stronger stuff this year, and expect them to continue the development shown in Rounds 10-15, it won't be enough to beat one of the competitions bench mark teams, but they should make something of the contest.

Collingwood by 34 points.

Preview - St.Kilda vs Hawthorn -Round 17

2010-07-20T22:31:00.000-07:00

St.Kilda vs Hawthorn - Etihad Stadium - Friday Night

St.Kilda - 3rd- 12-4 - 121.31%
Hawthorn - 7th -9-7-108.21%

The crunch games continue for the Hawks this friday night when they take on a St.Kilda side fresh from it's first defeat in two months.

The Hawks could hardly have been more impressive in dismantling the hapless Lions last week in Launceston whilst the Saints suffered the second heaviest defeat in their last 41 matches when they went down to the Pies by 48 points.

Hawthorn had 150 more disposals then the Lions, and a staggering 36 more Inside Fifties.
But St.Kilda at Etihad Stadium presents a far different challenge to the Brisbane Lions in chlly Tasmania just at the moment.

For St.Kilda this week is equally important although for different reasons.
This is not the time to be losing two games in a row, especially to fellow contenders and they will be eager to display the form that carried them to seven straight wins from Rounds 9-15.

St.Kilda were pressured to breaking point by Collingwood who "Out St.Kilda'd, St.Kilda" and the Hawks pressure skills are back near their very best over the last eight or nine weeks and they would have taken plenty out of the Pies performance.

St.Kilda went at a disposal efficiency of 57% last week, their lowest of the season and over the past seven weeks the Hawks have restricted teams to an efficiency of 63% which is the best in the competition, so the tools are there for them to do the same this week.

Hawthorn's forward line showed some very good signs last week, with Jarryd Roughead finding a bit of form in what has been an indifferent season, Osborne and Lewis functioning well accross half forward, and a heavy rotation of on ballers through the front half of the ground.

This week they also welcome back Lance Franklin who has kicked just four goals in his last three games against St.Kilda and eleven in his past six.

Lance however has been in ominous form and will be keen to prey on the vulnerability of his great mate Zac Dawson.

Zac has been firing the first shots in the war with a text message exchange with Buddy this week, but will need to be on his toes.

St.Kilda's main strength is restricting opposition entries inside fifty, and also limiting the quality of those entries.

St.Kilda concede less inside fifties then anyone else in the comp, and also allow teams to retain posession just 40% of the times they go inside which has been the hallmark with which they have built their aura in the last two seasons.

We mentioned the pressure the Pies applied to St.Kilda last week, but pressure skills remain the key for the Saints as well.

Hawthorn in the last six weeks have outscored their opposition by 50 points from stoppage first posessions, ranked number two in the competition, so St.Kilda will need to be sharp here and they have been since about Round 9 so it looms as a fascinating battle.

Josh Gibson has put his hand up to play on underdone skipper Nick Riewoldt and he will most likely get the job.

For Saint Nick it is a case once again of putting some miles in the legs and improving each week.

Jason Gram is a similar story as he looks to be underdone as well, so expect another step forward for him.

Nick Dal Santo should return for the saints, and possibly Ben McEvoy as well.

Dempster and Pattison will probably be the unlucky two to lose their spots in the side, although Pattison hasn't been too bad.

Dawson will get Franklin, and Gwilt or Blake will go with Roughead, Expect Clinton Jones to attempt to put the clamps on the soon to be 2010 Brownlow Medallist Luke Hodge.

Cyril Rioli is the x factor, I'm not sure the saints have a match up quick enough for him at the moment.

Conversely, Schneider and Milne have the power to cause headaches for the Hawks who's defence remains a touch of a concern particularly against the Smalls.
Matthew Stokes was the difference a fortnight ago against the Cats.

Koschitzke should also keep his spot despite poor form as he has the power to stretch the Hawks deep in their defensive 50.

Gilham will probably get him, with big jobs also for Stratton and Murphy down back against the Saints forward line.

Wayde Skipper played his best game for the club last week and will be eager to back up against the Gardiner/McEvoy or Gardiner/Pattison combination.

In the middle Hayes, Goddard, Montagna, Dal Santo, Jones, Ray and Peake will go head to head with Hodge, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Sewell, Lewis, Ellis and Rioli which is a dream match up on paper.

St.Kilda have won seven of their past nine against the Hawks, including the last four at Etihad Stadium so they will enter the match with good confidence but so will the Hawks who with the exception of a two point loss to Geelong have been flawless since early May.

Hawthorn simply have to win this game if they are to finish top four, but St.Kilda on the rebound, and back at Etihad Stadium should just do enough to get the points and steady the ship ahead of the run to September.

But it'll be tight.

St.Kilda by 7 points

Crossing the Line

2010-07-19T11:11:00.000-07:00

The roles and responsibilites that come with being an AFL Coach are many and varied.
Kevin Sheedy is a footballing legend, no one can argue that.
Multiple premierships as a player, 27 years at the helm as coach of the Bombers, including four premierships and seven grand finals.
When he speaks about the game, people listen and it is in this regard that he has overstepped the line in recent weeks.
Since his departure from Essendon at the end of 2007, Sheedy has been an outspoken observer on all aspects of the game in a number of different mediums, most notibly through his role with the Herald Sun.
However right now, Kevin Sheedy is not just a Herald Sun journo, and a former Essendon coach. He is the current coach of an AFL franchise in Greater West Sydney and with this should come an extra element of responsibility and restraint.

Not only that, but he is also the President of the Coaches association, and has felt the need to attack both Mick Malthouse and Matthew Knights in recent weeks.

In the last three weeks, Kevin Sheedy has also written an article outlining the responsibility all clubs have to "pillage" Geelong's list in a way of evening up the competition.
Through this he publicly analysed Geelong's list and essentially picked it apart for all to see.
GWS find themselves in a unique position, no doubt, and yes they will be coming for some of Geelong's stars, and those of many other clubs, but this sort of article is innapropriate given the role Sheedy holds as coach, and through the association.

Could you imagine Michael Voss coming out and saying next year we are gunning for Bartel, Corey, Stokes and Chapman?
It's just not the way it's done, and Sheedy has a responsibility to show due respect to the Cats in his role as a coach of a rival club, something he has failed to do here.

However where I think he has really crossed the line is through his attack on the Essendon football club and his successor Matthew Knights.

This is wrong on three levels, firstly a lot of what Sheedy says is fundamentally incorrect, secondly it is potentially destabilising for a club that he had so much to do with for so long, and thirdly once again he is out of line to be meddling in the coaching affairs of a rival club whilst he is currently involved with GWS.

Kevin Sheedy has questioned on more then one occasion whether Matthew Knights was the right man, and quoted reasons such as the desire to go outside the Essendon Football Club in search of a successor.

Kevin need remember his own background. Limited coaching experience, after a distinguished playing career at Richmond. Matthew Knights comes from that same background, Sheedy was not an Essendon person when hired, so that is a touch hypocritical.

It also seems a touch egotistical, in that the names Sheedy raised are guys he coached who are out in the market place, namely Bomber Thompson, Damien Hardwick, Mark Harvey and Dean Bailey.

Sheedy is portraying a belief that the club overlooked people "he had groomed" for success in favour of someone outside the club which reeks a bit of arrogance.

He also need remember that Essendon's plight is largely due to his doing.
Sheedy was a remarkable coach of Essendon, but he went on at least three years too long. Essendon's premiership tilt of the early part of the century was over by 2003, it was here they needed a rebuild.
Instead players like Mal Michael, Ty Zantuck, Justin Murphy, Matthew Allan, Scott Camporeale, and Chris Heffernan (redrafted) were brought into the club in an attempt to keep them in the finals.

This backfired with the Bombers falling into the bottom four by 2005 and remaining out of the eight until last year.
Sheedy also had a reluctance to pick the kids in his last few years, due to a desire to remain competitive.
I imagine this stems from a reality that his time at the club was nearing an end, and he was attempting to delay the inevitable by picking list cloggers that exist merely to keep a club competitive.

Matthew Knights came in, and a mini clean out followed, the Bombers injected youth in 2008 and showed signs of improvement, following that up in 2009 with some exciting football and a surprise finals appearance.
On that note, Knights first two years were a big tick, but it was that surprise finals appearance that has hurt him now.
Essendon made the eight on the back of 10 wins which over inflated a few opinions as to where they were at.

Right now, on the back of some injuries, a tough draw, and a drop in confidence Essendon have fallen away.

Knights may and probably will pay the price but I firmly believe that's unfair.
Lloyd and Lucas were not going to be a part of Essendon's next premiership team, and make no mistake, Scott Lucas was finished as a player.
Lloyd we need also remember was going to miss the first six weeks of the season anyway, and his body had been showing signs of wear and tear for two years.
Gumbleton, Hurley, Danniher and co are the future and giving them games is the best way to fast track that.
Sheedy would have kept probably both Lloyd and Lucas but that was part of the problem in the first place.
Keeping veterans too long saw Essendon get to the predicament they did 4-5 years ago.
Perhaps from a PR point of view, Knights could have managed it better, but the decision in essence was correct.

Sheedy is no longer the coach of Essendon, and his comments smack of pigheadedness and a lack of respect.

Throw in his remarks this week that Mick Malthouse is "the grumpiest man in the league" and has trouble building a list and we are seeing an alarming trend.

"There's no reason why I can't make comment on any club" Sheedy said on SEN yesterday.

"I'm not going to wait for anyone to tell me when I can make a comment about any club, any time.

"It's very, very awkward, but when you're working in the press and media, at times you have to make a comment that doesn't please everybody"

Well Sheeds, I'm sorry but yes there is a dam good reason why you can't, and the sooner you realise this the better.

A role within the media is fine, but it needs to be handled with due responsibility. Your primary responsibility remains to the game, and to your colleagues within the coaching ranks.

Coaches Association Chief Executive Danny Frawley admitted there were concerns.
"At times we think the lines have been crossed and we have had that discussion" he said.

"There's a fine line where he goes over and above.

"Would he be making comments if he was actually coaching a team on match day? Probably not"

Well if this is the case, then he shouldn't be making them now.

Sheedy is a great salesman, and will be fantastic for the game in GWS.

However with every role comes responsibility, and unfortunately in the last month, Sheedy has let his ego take control and entered into areas a man in his position should not.

His responsibilites as the President of the coaching association, and as an Essendon legend demand some restraint.

It's time he shows it.

Preview- Frem vs Melb - Round 16

2010-07-15T01:27:00.001-07:00

Fremantle vs Melbourne - Subiaco - Sunday Twilight

Fremantle -4th- 10-5- 119.05%
Melbourne - 11th - 5-9-1 - 88.98%

Fremantle's grip on fourth position was significantly loosened last week when they suffered a 19 point loss to Richmond at Etihad Stadium.

This week they return to their home fortress and take on a Melbourne side that is a notoriously poor traveller so they should bounce back and record their 11th win of what has been a very impressive season.

Melbourne had been struggling for the best part of eight weeks but an impressive all the way win over Essendon last week was the perfect tonic in a week where Jim Stynes once again provided some fantastic inspiration.

The Dockers have welcomed back Chris Tarrant into an extended squad, so for there sake, let's hope he plays as he will need to string some games together leading into an exciting september campaign for the club.

Fremantle will obviously have to make do without Barlow, but it is in defence where they have had some concerns lately.

McPharlin, Tarrant and Grover missing has put pressure on them of late, but it hasn't really been the key posts that have let them down, with Mcphee, Silvagni and Hayden handling that ok.

At times under pressure they have struggled with ball use, with their disposal efficiency in the back half of the ground the fourth worst in the AFL.

Their offensive power cannot be questioned, they score more often then any other team when they go inside fifty, and have a large spread of options in attack with a lot of midfield goals as well.

They need to just tighten up a bit defensively, as only Carlton have conceeded more points amongst the current top eight.

Melbourne would have been delighted to have scored 19 goals last week. Much has been said of the young midfield brigade they have coming through, and also the quality defenders the club is developing.

When people query them, it is their development of players in attack.
Jack Watts has had a solid month, Brad Green was exceptional, and the immediate impact of Liam Jurrah and Colin Sylvia was significant.

Those two, Jurrah in particular will be better for the run.

Stephen Hill and Rhys Palmer need attention for the dees, Palmer's clearance work in the past fortnight has been excellent, whilst Stephen Hill is arguably the game's best user of the ball by foot.

Expect Moloney to follow Palmer closely much as he did with Lenny Hayes a fortnight ago, Stephen Hill is the difficult one, hard to see an immediate option for him.

Brad Green is one of the more intelligent forwards in the game and he will enjoy the space at Subiaco, Tarrant if fit is the man who should get first crack, then probably Silvagni as second option.

Hayden might get a go at Jurrah who is deceptively good in the air, and Hayden from the outside at least, appears to be one of the better match ups for him.

Melbourne are another side that relies on efficiency. Despite all that has been said about their forward line they score from 30% of forward entries which is number two in the AFL.
They are however last for average inside fifties and at times this is due to a tendency to over posess the footy.
If you get caught doing that at Subiaco you are dead and buried.

Another important thing to do on the road is start well, and the Dees have had problems with first quarters all year, having won just four, if the Dockers get them early, they are no chance.

Melbourne are a side that has earnt some respect. The win loss record might not be pretty, but this is an improved line up with a number of quality youngsters, but compared to this Fremantle side they still come up short.

The Dockers have a top four spot on the line and will have too much run and too much spread of talent to lose to a Melbourne side that hasn't enjoyed getting on a plane in recent years.

Fremantle by 35 points.

Preview- Rich vs N.Melb- Round 16

2010-07-14T22:29:00.000-07:00

Richmond vs North Melbourne MCG -Saturday

Richmond 15th - 5-10- 75.72%
North Melbourne 9th - 7-8 - 81.31%

The now annual Eureka Clash pits the in form Tigers with a North Melbourne side desperate to keep it's finals hopes alive.

If the Kangaroos are to realise that goal of playing in September, a win on Sunday is imperative.

These two teams in many ways are the success stories of the year, fremantle aside, which is a strange thing to say given they sit 9th and 15th respectively on the table.

The Kangaroos have gone through a transition from the days under Dean Laidley where they were highly consistent and competitive hovering between 5-10 on the ladder as a rule without really every challenging for a flag, or for that matter falling away to bottom out.

They were expected to take some time to build back up after an inevitable slide in 2009 which resulted in many changes for the Shinboners.

With Brad Scott teaching them a new style of footy in 2010, inconsistency was to be expected, but despite the loss of quality young midfielder Liam Anthony for much of the year, and the absence of vice captain Drew Petrie they have managed to win seven games and could taste finals action in Scott's first year.

To pay North Melbourne due respect that would be an excellent result for them given where they were half way through last season.

Richmond are quite a remarkable case in themselves, 2009 was one of the worst years imaginable and the Tigers found themselves right at square one in terms of a rebuild with a young and inexperienced list and several players seen as nothing more then list cloggers.

As a result the outlook was bleak for 2010 and for the first 9 weeks it was going to script, with the Tigers being compared to the dieing Fitzroy team of 1996, in a season many expected would not net a single victory.

Fast forward to today and Richmond have won five of their past six, and sit behind probably only St.Kilda and Hawthorn as the form team of the competition.

In the past six weeks, Richmond have become the most effective kicking team in the comp, hitting a target 71% of the time.
In the first 11 weeks of the season they were ranked 14th.

In that time period they were also conceding 34 points a game directly from first posessions at stoppages, the worst record in the comp.
In the last six weeks they rank first, conceding just 20 a game.

They have also become the most effective stoppage team themselves, scoring 107 points in the past five weeks, number one in the afl and a staggering 58 points ahead of the next best team.

Deledio, Connors and Newman are now providing real headaches for teams with their rebound run, and of course they have the competitions number one forward up and about in Jack Riewoldt who appears destined to win his first Coleman Medal.

The Kangaroos will need to tighten up on a few areas if they are to stop the Richmond train this week.

They are the lowest tackling team in the competition over the past five weeks, and as a result have allowed their opponents more uncontested posessions then any other side, and more effective disposals.

Looking at the above stats from Richmond's recent form and that's an area the Kangaroos cannot afford to struggle in.

Scott Thompson will be an interesting match up for Jack Riewoldt, and you can guarantee he will annoy the hell out of the Richmond star and try to frustrate him all afternoon.

Collins, Nahas, White and co have been dangerous lately, and you would expect either Jayden Post or Mitch Morton to replace the injured Ben Griffiths.

Daniel Jackson will also miss through a suspension, and given Ben Cousins has been given the all clear to play by the coaching staff, he seems the logical replacement.

Ben Nason may need a rest too, the youngster has copped a pounding these past two weeks and might be a bit sore.

if so, then maybe Polo could get another run.

The Kangaroos missed a chance last week to jump into the eight, and will be eager to atone this week.

Aaron Edwards is a guy who I still believe has a place in their best 22, and despite the fact he isn't a player who is ever going to rip a game apart and kick seven, he provides a contest, can be a good link in the chain accross half forward and usually snares a couple of goals a game.

Warren and Smith, even Wright are developing ok, but Edwards I think has a place.

It would be good to see him get a run this week to help out the in form Lachie Hansen who is enjoying a break out year, and also the smaller brigade of Thomas and Campbell.

Harvey is in terrific form, and his likely shadow for the day in Jackson won't play, so he is a real danger man for the Tigers, and he will need to play well given the clearance strength of Cousins, Tuck, Martin and Cotchin for Richmond.

The Kangaroos should hold an advantage in the ruck through Goldstein and McIntosh, although Graham has been very good this year.

Some match ups you should see are Thompson to Riewoldt, Moore to Hansen and perhaps Thursfield to take Warren or Edwards depending on who plays.

Jake King should get one of either Thomas or Campbell, probably Campbell as Thomas might be a bit too good above his head for the nuggety Richmond tagger.

When North Melbourne take the game on, and play with confidence they are a very good side as was clear when they defeated Carlton a few weeks back and if they get some confidence early, they can really build and if that happens pound for pound, they are a better side then the Tigers.

The Tigers have plenty of confidence and momentum at present though themselves, and are playing with the type of passion that even the most ardent Tigers critic must surely appreciate.

Two clubs heading in the right direction, locking horns at the MCG, what better reason to go to the footy.

You sense their is a momentary fall somewhere for Richmond in the next few weeks, but they just keep defying the odds and right at this point in time they are simply in better form, and in a toss of the coin, they will make five it in a row.

Richmond by 1 point.

Preview- Carl vs Syd - Round 16

2010-07-13T22:41:00.000-07:00

Cartlon vs Sydney -Etihad Stadium - Sunday

Carlton 7th - 8-7 - 107.80%
Sydney 6th - 8-7 - 108.70%

The Swans arrive at Etihad Stadium having won 12 of their past 13 against Carlton dating back to the year 2000.

The plus for the Blues is that the one win in all of that was their most recent meeting late last season.

It's difficult to get a form line on the Blues, where as the Swans have been pretty straight forward.
Sydney have not beaten a single team in the eight this year, and have beaten every team they have played outside the eight except Richmond who got them by four points a fortnight ago.

So it's reasonable to suggest that a game against the swans is a barometer for where you sit in the big scheme of things.
Which means it is a game that has come at the perfect time for a Carlton side that must be questioning where it belongs after three losses from four games in the past month.

The Blues use of the ball killed them against the Bulldogs who are the side that is most likely to punish you for loose and sloppy football.

Carlton's midfield is A Grade but at the moment, aside from Chris Judd, it is struggling for consistency.
Marc Murphy is a terrific player, but whilst his posession tally remains high, he is not having the same impact that he did last year.

Hampson and Jacobs seem to be working well together, and they will need to be on their mettle against the Swans who have Mumford in terrific form.

The Bulldogs rebounding half backs Gilbee, Lake and co destroyed Carlton, and they will need to put the clamps on Nick Malceski who is in All Australian form, Rhyce Shaw and Tadhg Kennelly or they risk the same thing happening again.

Adam Goodes found some form last week, but Paul Roos needs to leave him in the middle. He is smart enough to push forward when need be and do damage and he is a tough one to find a match up for.

Paul Bower will be better for the run, and Jamison will be keen to atone for the belting he copped at the hands of Barry Hall last week.

With Daniel Bradshaw out, life will be a bit easier for him this week.

The Swans rely heavily on goals from small to mediums, such as O'Keefe, Mcglynn, Goodes and the onball brigade.

Carlton are much the same at their end, O'Hailpin has struggled this last month, whilst Yarran and Garlett drift in and out of games which is customary for small forwards.

Eddie Betts is enjoying a career best season and the Swans will need to put the clamps on him.

Speaking of clamps, Brett Kirk will sit on Chris Judd all afternoon in what should be a fascinating battle.

The Blues score a lot of goals on the burst and use their quick ball movement, and are number two in the AFL at scoring goals from stoppages.

Sydney on the other hand allow it's opponents to win a clearance from a stoppage just 35% of the time which is number one in the AFL. If Sydney restrict Carlton to that extent, they will more then likely beat them.

Sydney are also very good at restricting opposition run out of defence, teams generally go inside fifty just 25% of the time once they rebound it from the other end against the Bloods, so Carlton will need to take their chances, and be good by foot to capitalise on the limited chances the Swans give them.

Sydney rarely get opened up in games, whilst the Blues tend to win well when they do with an average margin of 44 points this year.

It is a fascinating battle of sides that play the game very differently.

Sydney are an honest side who are firmly in the middle of the road category, but you can't beat them without being sharp and playing well, and right at this point in time, the Blues aren't either of those two.

It's a very risky bet, as Carlton are the more dynamic of the two sides, but Sydney have the capacity to lock down on a Blues side that's not enjoying it's best moment in the sun right now.

Sydney by 8 points

Preview- West.B vs P.Adel Round 16

2010-07-13T19:34:00.000-07:00

Western Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide - Darwin - Saturday Night

Bulldogs 5th 9-6 - 131.69%
Port Adelaide 14th - 5-10 -79.00%

For probably the first time since their NAB Cup triumph the Bulldogs demonstrated the kind of form that saw them sweep to premiership favouritism as they smashed Carlton by 68 points at Etihad Stadium last sunday.

For Port Adelaide an era came to end with Mark Williams coaching the Power for the last time in a gallant 26 point loss to Collingwood.

However that performance in many ways was a blight on the club given two and a half years of ineptitude since the embarrassment of the 2007 Grand Final had led Choco to fall on his sword.

To see Port Adelaide storm to a six goal lead mid way through the second term leaves you scratching your head as to why it took such an announcement to see the club play with flair, confidence and passion.

Within 15 minutes though, the real Port Adelaide had returned, as they surrended the lead by half time in a meek rollover so common with this team since 2007.

They are currently in the midst of the worst losing streak in the club's history, and that eight game run is likely to extend to nine against a rejuvenated Bulldogs.

The Doggies biggest problem this year has been consistency, not just in terms of output but also in settling the group.

The forward line has injury and form concerns but last week functioned as well as it had all year, admittedly with little pressure from the Blues.

Barry Hall has added 54 goals this year, but the concern is that Johnson, Hahn, Akermanis, Giansiracusa, Higgins and Murphy have kicked 68 less goals then at the same time last year.

Collectively the midfield is down 12 goals on this time last year as well.

That is a huge discrepancy over the period of a season.

This does suggest light at the end of the tunnel for the doggies however.
Johnson and Hahn are battling form and fitness, but Higgins, Murphy and Gia seem to be finding form, and Aker is a week or two away from resuming.

If they get everyone up and firing and they sneak into the top four, they can still challenge for their second flag in 2010.

Last week they slaughtered Carlton on the turn over, and this week they face a Port Adelaide side that ranks 15th for kicking efficiency, so they will be preying on the errors that inevitably come against the Power, and expect them to slice them up on the large Mawarra ground.

The Bulldogs are the best team in the comp at using the corridor, with 54% of their scores coming from the centre of the ground, so Port need to apply pressure and guard space as much as possible.

Jay Schulz should return to the fold for Port Adelaide and he was in good touch prior to missing last week, he must not only hit the scoreboard, but also try to keep Brian Lake accountable as the Doggies will try to free him as much as possible.

Ebert and Motlop kicked six between them last week, and will need a similar output this time.

The Bulldogs will miss Barry Hall, Akermanis and Hahn from their attack, with Brad Johnson touch and go, so that's a lot of offensive power out of the side.

Port are not great defensively, but they won't have to contend with a fully functioning Bulldogs forward line on Saturday night and if they can bottle the game up, they can keep themselves in it for a long time.

Salopek, Boak, Cassisi and Kane Cornes will have their work cut out against a Bulldogs side that has won it's clearance count convincingly over the past five weeks.

Boyd, Cooney and Griffen were as good as they've been all year last week and should prove to strong again.

Matthew Primus will be taking the reigns for the first time as coach of Port in what he hopes is a seven week audition that nets him the top job permanently.

There is an age old theory that teams win the week after a coaching change, but the stats show that's about a 55% strike rate which isn't a hugely compelling argument.

Port have talent, and if they play with commitment they can be dangerous, expect that this Saturday night, but it doesn't take much to bring out the true colours of the boys from Alberton, and expect the Bulldogs to expose that gradually over the course of the night.

There is too much at stake for them this week, with top four prospects alive and well and they will win their second game in a row and set up a blockbuster with Fremantle next week.

Bulldogs by 29 points

Preview- Ess vs West.c - Round 16

2010-07-12T22:36:00.000-07:00

Essendon vs Westcoast -Etihad Stadium - Saturday Night

Essendon 13th - 5-10 - 84.26%
Westcoast 16th - 3-12 - 75.16%

The Bombers should get a welcome reprieve on Saturday night when they take on the competitions worst side at Etihad Stadium in what is simply a must win game for the boys from Windy Hill.

Essendon find themselves in unfamiliar territory at the moment with coach Matthew Knights feeling the heat well and truelly after his side's 5th consecutive loss, this time to a Melbourne outfit that had won just one of it's previous eight matches before last week.

If the Bombers are struggling, the Eagles are at rock bottom however with Woosha's men staring their first ever wooden spoon right in the face.

Two games clear on the bottom of the ladder it's hard to see where the next win will come from for the Eagles who have lost all confidence and form.

Their performance against the Crows wasn't terrible last week, but they still weren't good enough to take advantage in some key moments and challenge for a victory.

Mark LeCras and Josh Kennedy are an excellent forward combination and would get a game in any side in the competition, but problems lie elsewhere for this group.

Their midfield lacks pace, and also slaughters the footy far too often.

Priddis and Dalziell can wrack up a million touches each, but lack penetration both in their kicking but also their running.

Selwood is a trier but also doesn't break the lines, and Daniel Kerr has played about three good AFL games in two and a half years and has been injured for the best part of the season.

Dean Cox is showing some concerning designs of being on the wrong side of the hill, and Natanui still has a way to go.

They also miss Darren Glass badly in defence.

Scott Selwood, Brad Sheppherd, Lewis Stevenson, Ashton Hams and co look ok and they need to build something around these guys, as well as Masten and Ebert in the middle.

The Q Train is struggling for form at present and McKinley is someone they need a lift from as well because if he finds form, it will help support Kennedy and Le Cras in that front half.

The Bombers have the hardest best 22 in the competition to define IMO.
David Hille is someone they miss badly, but they have too many similar players.

Angus Monfries will be better for the run, Dustin Fletcher will return which will help release Hurley back into attack where he played well a month or so ago, Scott Gumbleton should return as well.

Dyson, Houli, Prismall etc are players who should all be in Essendon's starting line up, but have struggled for consistency.

Stanton and Watson are quality clearance players but they lack inside presence to support them. Welsh is a solid tagger but too much pressure gets dumped on the aforementioned duo.

Winderlich has been in solid form for the Dons who are the definition of a confidence side.

When up and about, taking the game on and hitting targets they look fantastic, and have claimed the scalps of St.Kilda and the Western Bulldogs this year, as well as leading the Cats by five goals in Round One.

But conversely when the confidence is down they become hesitant, and very sloppy by foot.

With Pears out the Dons defence has been particularly vulnerable and Fletcher's absence has compounded that.

The Bombers have conceded a mark inside fifty from 51% of opposition entries in the past month, which is the worst in the competition.

They have also conceded a clearance from 45% of all centre bounces which confirms the fact that too much is left to too few in there.

Fletcher is back and will take either McKinley or Lynch,

But the Eagles problem has been getting the ball down there. They are last for Inside 50's in the last month, and 15th for scores once in there, so they don't appear to have the arsenal to exploit Essendon's vulnerability.

They are also last for tackles in the AFL and their young bodies will struggle to put enough pressure on Essendon who have a reasonable group of runners, and therefore should get opened up too often to seriously challenge.

This is a game the Dons simply must win, and win they will.

Essendon by 28 points

Preview -Hawthorn vs Brisbane Round 16

2010-07-12T21:40:00.000-07:00

Hawthorn 8th - 8 wins 7 losses - 102.65%
Brisbane 12th - 5 wins 10 losses - 85.16%

The Hawks had won seven consecutive matches prior to last week's narrow defeat at the hands of Geelong, but strangely enough it was probably that loss that best demonstrates how far they have come.

After a horror start to the season that saw them sit at 1-6 the Hawks have gradually turned it around, and it was their ability to push the reigning premiers all the way last week that confirms their standing right now amongst the competitions best teams.

Brisbane conversely have fallen off the pace in a big way. After an agressive trade and draft period the Lions hit the ground running with four straight wins to start the year, but injuries and a rapid decline in form has seen them win just one game since and they have slipped from 1st to 12th on the table in that time.

Drummond, Brown, Adcock, Maguire and Charman are just five of the names that the Lions have had to contend without, and further injury interruptions have plagued Merrett, McGrath, Brennan and Fevola amongst others since the early rounds.

That is a crippling run, and a genuine excuse for the fall, but it has also been a drop in intensity and perhaps a realisation of some deficiencies that existed not far below the surface with this team.

Now as is so often the case when a side starts to struggle, rumours are abound that not all is well within the ranks, with suggestions by former assistant coach Wayne Brittain that newly appointed right hand man Dan Collins is the source of angst in some sections of the playing group.

Michael Voss has moved to hose down these concerns but it doesn't change the fact this season is rapidly spiralling into oblivion for the Lions who harboured legitimate top four aspirations at the start of the season.

The Hawks are a side right now, that is eyeing top four and simply must win this game if it is to realise that goal.

Last week's loss was cushioned somewhat by Fremantle's defeat but the Hawks still have some tough challenges ahead.

One thing that we can guarantee is that if they make the eight, a few sides will be a touch nervous.

In terms of Saturday, the Hawks look a strong chance to regain skipper Sam Mitchell despite breaking a hand just a fortnight ago. His inclusion will bolster an in form midfield brigade led by the general Luke Hodge, Jordan Lewis, Cyril Rioli, Chance Bateman, Xavier Ellis and Shaun Burgoyne who is making a big impact for his new club.

Down back the Hawks have struggled since they won the flag in 08 but over the past month or so the defensive unit has started to settle with Ben Stratton and Ryan Schoenmakers playing good footy, Tom Murphy enjoying a good patch of form, Stephen Gilham doing his job, and the likes of Birchall, Young and Hodge providing the attacking flair that drove the Hawks to greatness two years ago.

Franklin looms menacingly in attack but can consider himself fortunate to be playing. His late hit on Tom Lonergan should have cost him a week.

Jarryd Roughead has shown signs in the past fortnight that the wheel is turning for him and the under siege Lions could be a good opportunity for him to kick a bag.

Osborne, Rioli and co provide the class at ground level.

The Lions would have been pleased with the form of Fevola last week who seems to have returned from a break refreshed.
With Jonathan Brown missing again, the pressure remains on Fev to lead the attack.
Whilst 2010 is nearly a write off, some future signs are good for Brisbane with Cornelius looking lively in attack along with the emergence of Banfield, Rockliff and Redden this season providing a glimpse of what might be for the Lions beyond this year.

They still struggle to generate scores from outside of Fev and Brown, and they need a lift from Sherman, Brennan, Polkinghorne and Clark who can all provide some goals at times.

Their midfield remains pretty strong with Black, Power, Rischitelli, Sherman and Rich very classy, and the aforementioned kids Rockliff and Redden for support.

The Lions still produce good patches of footy each week and that in itself makes them dangerous. But with injuries and conditioning being a problem all year they struggle to sustain momentum over four quarters of a game.

Merrett will take Franklin, and Gilham should get Fevola but the Lions need to tag Luke Hodge and probably Cyril Rioli if they are to have any chance of causing an upset and keeping the faintest of doors open in 2010.

Daniel Rich played off half back last week and was very dangerous so he will most likely get some attention this week from the Hawks coaching staff.

A barometer for when a team is playing well tends to be the pressure indicators. In the first seven weeks the Hawks were ranked 14th for tackles. In the last eight weeks they have been ranked third.

In the past five weeks the Hawks have outscored their opponents by an average of four goals in first quarters, the Lions conversely have been slow starters for a lot of the season.

Brisbane will need to sharpen up by foot as well as they are the number one clanger team in the comp this year.

On paper, there doesn't appear to be much between the sides. However in the areas that matter, such as form and confidence, they are poles apart.

Hawthorn by 44 points.

Preview - Coll vs St.K Round 16

2010-07-12T19:27:00.001-07:00

Collingwood vs St.Kilda - MCG - Saturday afternoon

Collingwood - 3rd -11-3-1 - 132.59%
St.Kilda - 2nd - 12-3 - 128.12%

Two of the competitions best sides will lock horns at the MCG on Saturday afternoon in a mouth watering contest.

Melbourne had experienced a Saturday afternoon drought with no games in town for a month on what was once the premier day for football, however last week's Hawthorn v Geelong classic more then made up for lost time and you can expect this game to be every bit as good.

Collingwood had to work hard last week against a Port Adelaide side that was always going to be fired up in the wake of Mark Williams resignation, but their efforts against the breeze in the third quarter were excellent and they went on to record a 26 point win.

The Saints welcomed back champion Nick Riewoldt but also had to fight all the way to defeat a gallant Lions outfit by 14 points at the Gabba.

Expect the big blond saint to be better for the run, as his second half last week suggested some of the cobwebs were blowing away after three months out of the game.

St.Kilda have won their past seven matches and are building nicely towards another September assault whilst the Pies have in many ways flown under the radar this year which is surprising giving the attention the club usually draws.

St.Kilda have also won the last four meetings between these sides by an average of 45 points so it's an important game for the Magpies who's major stumbling block time and again in the last two years been defeating either the Saints or Geelong in a big game.

Between now and september they play each of them again and if they can snare a win it will do wonders for their confidence come the finals.

St.Kilda's pressure has been the big factor in recent meetings between these sides, and their ability to restrict Collingwood's forward line in particular Didak, Cloke and Davis who have had poor records of late against the boys from Moorabbin.

Cloke will not be there this time after a two match ban handed down by the match review panel and Davis is probably a 50/50 bet to return.

The Pies strength this year has been it's spread of goalkickers. It has had at least ten different goal scorers in a game on nine occasions this year which is the best of any team in the comp, they will need to use this versatility to full affect to exploit the Saints who are the best at restricting teams from scoring.

Collingwood generally play a wide style where they build around the boundary line and they face the Saints who are the best at dragging teams back into the corridor which makes this game a fascinating battle of contrasting styles.

Collingwood have allowed the opposition to kick 79% of their scores from the centre corridor this year which is number three in the comp, if they allow this to happen on Saturday they will lose.

Collingwood have been tackled on average just 55 times in the last six weeks, the lowest of any team in the comp, and their ability to create space is a strength, a large factor in this is that they are the number one team in the comp for interchange rotations which makes them a hard side to lock down on.

St.Kilda have conceded on average just 43 inside fifties a game over that seven week winning run which is five fewer then any other team so the Pies will need to take their chances, and improve on their record from set shots which is just 46%, the worst in the AFL.

The key to beating St.Kilda is to isolate their defenders. The Saints are easily the best defensive unit in the competition, but they can be vulnerable when isolated one on one through the likes of Dawson, Blake and even Gilbert.

Dawes is important for Collingwood, he creates a contest on every occasion and sets up opportunities for the midfield and smaller Collingwood forwards to capitalise on. Without Cloke, a lot of pressure sits on his shoulders.

It will be interesting to see if Fraser returns for this clash given the absence of Cloke in the front half.

St.Kilda should welcome back Brendan Goddard who had a virus last week and will be hoping that Justin Koschitzke has recovered from an ankle injury that has kept him out of the past two games.

Expect Presti to get the job on Riewoldt if he stays close to goal, Maxwell may get the job if he pushes further afield, provided the Pies skipper is fit to play.

Harry O'Brien usually plays on Milne and does a fair job so expect that match up again, Toovey is another option for the in form goal sneak, or perhaps even Schneider.

At the other end Dawson will get Dawes, and the Pies will need offensive lock downs on Sam Gilbert and possibly Fisher who generate so much drive for the Saints off half back.

Heath Shaw needs the same home work at the Saints end and expect Mcqualter to be that man.

In the middle it's Hayes, Dal Santo, Montagna, Jones, Goddard, Ray and Gram against Swan, Pendlebury, Ball, Thomas, Beams, Johnson and Wellingham in what is a super battle.

St.Kilda might feel the affects of a very humid night in Brisbane last week, but with Goddard returning, Riewoldt and Gram better for the run, the Saints should fair ok.

Collingwood need to take a scalp like this to build genuine belief that they can win a flag and they will be in the game up to their eye balls, but the Saints look to have the edge in a few key areas and should win again.

St.Kilda by 12 points.

Preview- Adel vs Geel Round 16

2010-07-12T18:06:00.000-07:00

Adelaide vs Geelong - Round 16 Aami Stadium

Adelaide 10th - 6 wins 9 losses - 92.48%
Geelong 1st - 12 wins 3 losses - 146.35%

The Crows have resurrected their season after a disastrous start that saw them lose their first six games and they now, quite unbelievably sit just two wins outside the eight.
It confirms a suspicion we probably all had that the Crows were a pretty good side playing poorly.
This week they come up against the competitions number one team in Geelong who are coming off a classic two point win over Hawthorn last week in one of the games of the season.
Adelaide's unlikely run to the finals hinges largely on this result given they face all of last year's top four in the run home, and also a resurgent Richmond at the MCG.

The Crows probably need to win six of their last seven so a loss friday night would probably cripple them.
But how will they beat this super Geelong unit that continues to press on despite a large injury list for much of the season?
The key is quick ball movement and to isolate some of their more nimble forwards as to beat the Cats you cannot be forced to just pump the ball long inside 50.
The most affective way to beat the Cats has been to run the ball inside the arc, and use your legs and rely on your smalls in attack.
The long ball in makes life easy for Scarlett and Taylor and they will have a picnic.
Geelong's three losses this year have seen a host of runners do the damage against them in attack. It's very rare that a key forward gets hold of them.
Adelaide have been lifted by the form of it's younger midfield brigade with Vince, Douglas and Scott Thompson leading the charge.
Kurt Tippett has found his best form from 2009 whilst Walker, Dangerfield and young Henderson are doing a lot of damage in attack.
The Geelong defence presents a different challenge though with Taylor, Scarlett, Milburn, Mackie, Lonergan and Hunt more then capable of restricting the in form Crows forward line.

Expect Scarlett to take Tippett and try to hurt him on the counter attack.
Taylor will probably go to Henderson which is a massive ask for the young Bacchus Marsh boy against a man who will most likely be the All Australian centre half back.

Joel Corey should return for the Cats in the middle of the ground which is where they should exploit the Crows midfield which although talented, doesn't bat as deep as Geelong's.

Expect Ottens to be better for the run too and he and Blake should take the points against Maric and Griffen in the ruck battle.

Geelong will welcome back Cameron Mooney from a two match suspension which should take some pressure off Podsiadly in attack.

Byrnes, Varcoe and Stokes have all been in good touch and throw in the spread from the midfield and it's hard to see Adelaide putting the clamps on Geelong enough to take the points.

Expect Rutten to get Mooney, and perhaps Stevens to have a crack at J-Pod. Davis, Symes and Johncock will then have big jobs on the smalls in Geelong's forward line.

Jaensch, Sloane, Armstrong and even Symes have all added plenty to the crows in terms of spark as they prepare for life without Edwards, Goodwin and Burton but whilst wins over Melbourne, Essendon and Westcoast are something, the cats are a hole different ball game.

Although the Crows have the capacity to make this game competitive they won't have enough accross the board to defeat the Cats who have too many answers.

Geelong by 31 points.