EXTENSIVE CUP PREVIEW FOR 2010I will go through each horse in the cup field for tomorrow with some pros and cons about their chances and then ultimately I'll give my thoughts and tips at the end.
1. Shocking
Form: Been solid without luck for much of the campaign. Was 2nd in the Turnbull and ran a slashing last couple of hundred, just had no room for much of the straight. Same story in the Caulfield Cup when he flashed home for 4th.
Wasn't quite as sharp in the Mackinnon but tomorrow has always been his grand final.
Pros: Won the race last year, will definitely get the trip, and whilst his spring says only one win, he has shown nothing to indicate he won't be flying home strongly at the end and given the trip he could definitely swamp over the top of them.
Cons: Has drawn the outside barrier and has to carry a whopping 6kg's more then he did last year. He will also race against probably a slightly better field. So he has a few factors working against him in this one which will make life tough, but he always tends to defy what we expect.
Won from 22 last year, so 24 is not a huge backward step and a couple of possible scratchings might bring him in again to 21 or 22.
Strong horse a year older so maybe the weight isn't a huge issue.
Overall: Will need to run superbly and do it all right to swamp the likes of SYT on the straight but a previous winner with great turn of speed so he can definitely win it.
But I might take him on I reckon, few things against him in this one. Risky, but I'm leaving him alone.
2. Campanologist -
The flag ship for the unlucky Godolphin stable this year and could well do a crime scene from last year and scare the hell out of them.
They are yet to win this race despite numerous placings and whilst he may lack the class to get the job done overall, he might be a first four contender.
Pros: Has won 2 Group One's up to 2400, yet to win a major at this distance but can run it.
Barrier 19 shouldn't hurt him that much and has been timed to peak here after a much travelled campaign.
Cons: Is a bit inconsistent and temperamental (hope I spelt that correctly), best is very good, but can fluctuate. Although this most recent campaign has been fairly consistent. (Hasn't finished outside first 4 in last 6 starts).
Hasn't beaten quality overseas, but they come here because this is the best race, can it beat Shocking, So You Think, the gutsy Zipping etc ? Maybe, but I'm not convinced.
Overall: Genuine stayer with ability, don't think it will win, but first four or place roughie. Worth thinking about him.
3. So You Think
Form: Could not be better. Has won 5 starts in a row this campaign, four of those group ones and seems to do a little bit better each run, matures and adapts to conditions a little better every time. Cox Plate win was far to easy and then produced probably the best run of his career last Saturday to demolish a pretty good Mackinnon field.
Pros: Has answered every challenge put at him so far, and whilst this is a new benchmark again he has given every indication he can deal with it.
Unlike the Cox Plate he was pulling away in the Mackinnon and the doubts generated about his ability to stay that came out of the Plate would have dissipated a fair bit the other day.
Has amazing class and despite his occasionally flighty pre race motions, he does settle down well in his races.
Cons: Yet to run at 3200, in fact yet to run beyond 2040 so whilst his pedigree suggests he can do it, and his make up, you have to see it first before your convinced.
Also he will have a huge field to contend with, bit more congestion etc.
History - Only Phar Lap has won 2 Cox Plates and a Melbourne Cup, and only Phar Lap has won the Plate the Mackinnon and the Cup in 11 days so that's what he is being measured against. Many have failed at this task, can he succeed?
Overall: Yes he can. He is that good. Clearly the best horse in the race and if he relaxes early, doesn't encounter severe misfortune and can stay the trip. I don't think he can lose.
But in Melbourne Cups, anything can happen, and plenty has happened.
4. Zipping
FORM: Won the only two group ones of his long career this year and they were good races too (Australia Cup and Turnbull).
Evergreen horse who just fights and fights and fights.
PROS: Can stay, has proven that. Is in probably career best form as well.
We have seen him run well in this race in the past (back to back fourths in 2006 and 2007).
Remarkably ran in his first cup before So You Think was even foaled.
His second in the Cox Plate was a slashing run and he will guts it out to the end. In any other era who knows. This horse may have won a Melbourne Cup and a Cox Plate.
CONS: No 9 year old has ever won a Melbourne Cup, but he is a special horse.
Is as brave as they come, but may lack the genuine class to beat them all.
OVERALL: Absolute top 6 moral. Huge first four chance.
5. Illustrious Blue
Form: Been solid in lead up races in the UK. Has won at or around the distance a couple of times against slightly lesser company.
Will carry less weight then he has in a couple of years so will enjoy that.
Pros: Always good to look for horses you know can stay the trip. He can.
Low weights, slightly damp track they both work in his favour as well.
Cons: Has never raced in Australia. I dare say no- one has ever won a Melbourne Cup without racing in this country first. Will also face better oppositin.
Overall: Genuine smokey for a place. Bit of an unknown commodity as we have never seen him. But they aren't mucking around with him.
6. Mr Medici
FORM: Ran a tidy 6th in the Caulfield Cup and has solid form on the wet tracks. Yet to run at this distance though but been building ok.
PROS: Handles the weather and heavy track quite well. Has good solid overseas form and should improve a touch from Caulfield Cup run as it looked to have a bit in the tank.
Cons: Never run beyond 2400, and will face company that I think is at least as good as he is with maybe better credentials at distance.
Good jockey on board though and will be smart throughout.
OVERALL: Would need luck, probably look elsewhere.
7. Shoot out
FORM: Has been as solid as they come without winning. 4 thirds and 3 fourths in past seven starts. Great Cox plate run, very good at the weekend as well.
PROS: Doesn't do anything wrong when he races. The way he has finished each race this spring makes him look like a genuine stayer.
I have very little doubt he'll get the journey. Has a lot of class and speed and has raced competently against this company.
CONS: Sometimes I think he lacks the genuine grit to push past a horse who wants to fight him. Zipping for example has dug in twice against him and held him off. He needs to be able to push hard when the going is tough.
OVERALL: Consider him each way.
8. Americain
FORM: Cracking Geelong Cup win a while back when he didn't get a good run until very late. Beat an exceptional field that day and the race has form in terms of Cup lead ups.
PROS: Has won four on the trot, trackingly similar to Bauer two years ago. Has won twice back in France over 3000 metres and has taken to Aussie conditions with aplomb.
Carrying just 54 and a half KG's and has drawn well.
CONS: Will be the best quailty he has ever raced against in his career. And still just his second start in Australia.
OVERALL: Potential to be a major player. Consider him each way
9. Tokai Trick
FORM: Ran 13th in the Caulfield Cup but watching the race again he didn't go ridiculously hard.
Has won four times beyond 3000 and as long as 4000 back in Japan.
PROS: The Japanese horses famously smashed this race apart in 2006 and their staying races compare very very favourably with ours. He has genuine staying quality and should improve on that Caulfield Cup run in the slush.
CONS: At the wrong end of his career possibly. Again he'd have to be the first 9 year old to win, and his Aussie form is unconvincing.
OVERALL: Seeing the Japanese in the race again makes you look twice at him that's for sure, but not this time for mine.
10. Buccelati
FORM: Hasn't done much in Australia from 5 starts this campaign. Ran a solid 7th finishing ok in the Turnbull. Has won at distance up to Group 3 level.
PROS: Can run the trip, but hard to find a heck of a lot else for him. Pretty tough horse who will compete though.
CONS: Lacks a bit of genuine class and his preparation would suggest he should struggle. Finished at least 18 lengths behind Descerado in the Caulfield Cup and I doubt he can make that up in similar conditions.
OVERALL: Leave alone
11. Descerado
FORM: Excellent few weeks for the Gai Waterhouse horse. Couldn't have been more impressive in his Caulfield Cup win and ran a very good second to the superstar So You Think in the Mackinnon.
PROS: Will enjoy the extra distance, will enjoy the weather and he will also have little competition at the front. He likes to lead and there aren't any other obvious front runners to set him an uncomfortable tempo.
Barrier is near perfect too.
CONS: Was no match at all for SYT at the end of the Mackinnon so that is a worry. Aside from that not to many issues, although is yet to win beyond 2400.
OVERALL: One of the spring's form horses without a doubt. Can win at a pinch, and should be in the first half dozen.
12. Harris Tweed
FORM: Ran second in the Caulfield Cup to Descerado and was very solid. Has won at 2500 distance at Flemington this campaign as well.
PROS: Very good run in the Caulfield Cup, and also one of a few that likes the weather and track conditions he is likely to face.
Looks like he should get the trip as well as he ran a very tidy 5th in the Melbourne Cup last year.
CONS: Had a small bout of Colic last week which no doubt will knock him around. Key is recovery as his form was fine. Needs to maintain conditioning.
OVERALL: Top form in this race and recently. Most definitely in the mix.
13. Manighar
FORM: Has been challenging of late without winning. 3 5th's and 2 seconds in past five races.
Was good in the Caulfield Cup and has nice staying form back home.
PROS: Has won twice at 3200 in France, was good in the Caulfield Cup and you guessed it.....also doesn'd mind the wet ground.
CONS: Has lost to a number of these horses at or around this distance. Gutsy, might lack a bit of class but then again they have timed their run well in the past the Cumani's and maybe they have again.
OVERALL: I like him, but a few better ones in this race. Take him on maybe.
14. Master O'Reilly
FORM: Hasn't won since his 2007 Caulfield Cup triumph but has been solid in the majors since. Has run 4th in each of the last two Melbourne Cups. Was poor at Moonee Valley a week or so ago but you can possibly right that off.
PROS: Grand campaigner who has good form in this race and good form in the majors over the journey.
Likes to run on from the back and leaves himself a lot to do, but over this distance could be dangerous again.
CONS: Not as sharp as he was say a year ago and also had a bout of Colic this spring. Don't think he is quite good enough anymore but knows what he is doing in the majors.
OVERALL: Has the barrier of death at number 18 where no horse has ever won, he won't change that. But don't totally discount at long ends to scrape another 4th. Probably not this year though.
15. Monaco Consul
FORM: Wasn't great in the Turnbull, but was exceptional in the Caulfield Cup in these sort of conditions. The longer the race, the better he has been....
PROS: Has won a couple of derby's, been great in a Caulfield Cup and both of those form lines support him running very well tomorrow. Another mudlark as well.
Looks to be peaking as well.
CONS: Slight query perhaps over consistency this campaign and maybe against the absolute top shelf company but the good probably outweighs the bad.
OVERALL: In my first four. Think long and hard about this guy.
16. Profound Beauty
FORM: Finally we come to the first mare in the race. Ran a terrific 5th in 2008 as a four year old.
Has finished top two in five races this year. and has won many overseas staying races.
PROS: Super consistant and gutsy stayer who whilst up in weights from two years ago will stay only carry 54 which is definitely manageable.
Trainer has been a wonderful player here in the past.
CONS: Has had some slight injury and health niggles both back home and since arriving in Australia. Preparation has been ok, but not sensational.
OVERALL: I backed her to win this race after chatting with Dermot Weld about 10 months ago and I'm not dropping her just yet. Very good chance to do some damage in this race.
Consider her as you have to love a tough mare.
17. Zavite
FORM: Ran 9th in last year's Melbourne Cup when a lot more highly fancied. Has won two races at this distance in Adelaide and Auckland but not against anywhere near this company.
PROS: Is the definition of a stayer if ever there was one. Could run all day and should benefit from being here last year.
CONS: Form hasn't been flash at all and has struggled against this class. Hasn't placed in quite a while and whilst he will fight, he probably isn't quite there.
OVERALL: If it beats half of them home it's done well. Won't do much more then that.
18. Bauer
FORM: Has raced only twice in two years since running a desperately close second to Viewed in the 2008 Melbourne Cup.
Improved last to fourth in those two races though and looked a lot sharper second time around.
PROS: Has run a slashing Melbourne Cup before and certainly has a lot of quality. If fit, will be dangerous.
CONS: Might not be fit. Is some chance to get scratched pre race due to a hoof complaint and it's preparation in 2008 was considerably better then it has been this time.
OVERALL: Probably not this time.
19. Holberg
FORM: Has won at Group 3 level over this distance and has a very solid staying record in the UK.
Yet to run in an Aussie Group 1 and hasn't won at this level anywhere.
PROS: Has done everything right over distance at lower levels and is ready to step up and have a crack. Stable aren't mucking around bringing him here and are super keen for a win.
Won't carry much weight either and went from 350-1 to 21-1 as soon as it got accepted.
CONS: Can it beat this class? Who knows and that must be a genuine query until we see it.
OVERALL: Sneaky chance, some smart cookies rate this horse a chance and who am I to argue.
It's a risky bet due to the unkown about it but ya never know. Worth maybe a place dable.
20. Precedence
FORM: Was beaten by Linton in the Herbert Power a few weeks back but was a bit unlucky. Came back and was super in winning at the Valley over 2500 on Cox Plate day.
Controversially received a 1.5kg penalty which is probably why he is here.
Has raced once at 3200m and came last in the Sydney Cup.
PROS: Pretty solid horse who has mixed some very good with very poor in it's career. Past 5 starts have been very solid though but might need to sharpen a touch. Carrying bugger all weight and will be the second of the Bart Cummings horses.
CONS: Record in only start at distance is awful but is clearly better then that.
OVERALL: History would say probably not, but this campaign might argue differently. I don't think he will figure that prominently but he is a dangerous one to take on. If you want to go with Bart you could do worse.
21. Red Ruler
FORM: Similar to Zavite. Seems to have been around for ages but has good distance form.
Has been raced sparingly of late which should help and despite the Yalumba result has had a fair run of results lately. Is a better chance then Zavite though I'd say.
PROS: Has beaten quality in the past, and run well over distance in the past and is fairly consistent. Nice turn of foot could have it close if lucky.
CONS: You know what you'll get from him, but might lack a bit of punch when push comes to shove at the end.
OVERALL: Could come home well and scare and odds will be nice, think about a first four but probably better options
22. Linton
FORM: Could not have been more impressive in the Herbert Power, and followed that up with a nice run in the Lexus. Typical Williams horse in that he is lightly run, but very sharp. Shades of efficient (not just because is grey).
PROS: Has class, and is fresh. I have been saying ever since the Herbert that he will probably win next year's Melbourne Cup and I still believe that. Although not without a chance this time even if he has some maturing to do. They are huge Melbourne Cup lead up races that he performed in so watch him closely.
CONS: Maluckyday skipped away from him Saturday which might be a little worry, but more distance might help.
Has drawn a pretty poor barrier but not a disaster.
OVERALL: Looks like a Melbourne Cup winner if ever I have seen one. Will it be this year? Maybe.
23. Once were wild
FORM: Set a sharp pace in the Lexus, and fought on very bravely to finish 3rd to Linton and Maluckyday who it faces again here.
Has finished close to the placings at the Geelong Cup as well, so is at home at the level, even if perhaps not quite good enough to beat them consistently.
PROS: Has lots of courage. Will fight very hard. His placings in the above mentioned races is a good form indicator and whilst he hasn't won, he has beaten some highly fancied horses over the journey
CONS: Hasn't won for a little while and will need to change strategyslightly from the Lexus as he won't win trying to charge out like that.. 3200 a query given the way it races I think.
OVERALL: Probably not this time, although the second mare in the race has some fight about her. Expect it to be up there for a while, but should have a few go past her at the end.
24. Maluckyday
FORM: One of the stories of the day to come out of Derby Day, was absolutely superb in winning the Lexus and the cat is out of the bag now with the inexperienced horse third favourite now for the Cup.
Has won 5 of last 6 races and has dominated his last three. Doing everything right.
PROS: Rapid rise for this horse. Highly rated by all involved, jockey included and his last 3 have been superb runs.
CONS: Lacks a bit of experience and will have to contend with a huge field and a bit of traffic.
Is not a certainty to run, although you'd think it would. The Hawkes camp understandably a bit cautious with their young star.
OVERALL: Justifiable third favourite. Can stay the trip, don't worry about that, will be coming hard at the end and is a chance.
MY TIPS
Winner: So You Think
Biggest dangers: Maluckyday, Monaco Consul, Profoud Beauty, Descerado, Shocking
First Four bet: Maybe Box 6 of them. But put Zipping in there somewhere with a combination of the above. He'll be there that's for sure.
3 roughies: Campanoligist, Illustrious Blue, Holberg. - Maybe a small dabble on them wouldn't hurt.
