Collingwood vs Richmond at the MCG- Saturday
Collingwood 1st - 12-3-1 - 135.06%
Richmond 15th - 5-11- 74.19%
Two traditional rivals going head to head on a Saturday afternoon in Melbourne for the third weekend in a row, perhaps we are on to something!
This time it is a rampaging Collingwood side who sit atop the ladder after Round 16 for the first time since that famous 1990 season, and a young Richmond side who's remarkable resurgence hit a road block last week against North Melbourne.
Nevertheless expect up to 75,000 people to attend this game even if that is about 10-15 short of what the AFL would have got had the Tigers entered the clash on the back of five consecutive wins.
Collingwood supporters will be out in force like never before as they smell the distinct whiff of a premiership in the air after beating St.Kilda convincingly last week.
Collingwood had lost their last seven clashes combined against St.Kilda and Geelong and the missing piece of the puzzle was a scalp against one of the competitions top two teams to really show they have what it takes. That piece has been firmly knocked into place.
Richmond have taken many steps forward this year, even if the ladder still reads 15th place.
Given people's expectations at the start of the season, to be 5-11 from 16 rounds is a super turn around, all things being considered.
But it is super important not to drop the ball now. The Tigers were poor last week and can't afford to get blown away by Collingwood this week as it could seriously affect the confidence of the group and they owe it to themselves to avoid that.
The last six weeks present many chances for the Tigers, who should finish the season with seven-eight victories but a big hit this week could rock the pysche of the group which they need to guard against.
Jackson, Cotchin and Foley will all miss this week who are three of the club's best five clearance players so it's difficult to see Richmond legitimately having a chance at winning this one given those outs and the fact their opponents are flying.
Blockbuster fatigue has been mooted this year by many, but every game the Pies play is a big one and they won't allow that too happen on Saturday.
The depth of the Magpies squad has been a huge factor in their season so far, Wellingham and Thomas have taken steps forward this season, and the introduction of Ball and Jolly, as well as the further development of Blair, Beams, Dawes and Sidebottom has seen the club build significantly on last season.
Leigh Brown has been pivotal as well in not only potentially ending the career of Josh Fraser, but adding versatility to the Magpies who can get away with selecting just one specialist ruckmen.
Richmond's use of the ball and clearance dominance have been the cornerstones of their improvement, but a let down seemed inevitable given they had been riding a wave of confidence for more then a month.
Young sides often produce shockers out of nowhere and that happened for the Tigers last week.
They shouldn't necessarily be alarmed, and would be better inclined to see it as a wake up call and a reminder of the work that still needs to be done.
Connors, White, Edwards, King are four players who entered this season at the crossroads and all have improved to the point of securing their positions for 2011 and adding plenty to this Tigers line up.
Martin, Astbury, Nason, Webberly, Graham, Collins and Vickery are kids to have had a big impact this year, and of course Jack Riewoldt who is now the competitions most dangerous forward.
The Tigers are fast on the way to becoming a very good side and demand the respect of Collingwood this week, despite three significant midfield absentees.
Riewoldt will face a stiff test this week, not just against veteran defender Simon Prestigiacomo but also the entire defensive unit of the Magpies with O'Brien, Goldsack, Toovey and Shaw all prepared to leave their man and role over to be third man in and help nullify the Tigers star.
It might be wise to bring in a Mitch Morton this week to help take some pressure off Jack.
Mitch kicked three goals last week and looked lively for Coburg, he still has a place in this team I believe.
McGuane was good last week, and should get Dawes. Leon Davis and Allan Didak will most likely get Jake King and Shane Edwards as opponents and their will be no love lost between King and the Magpies with the nuggety Tiger suspended in each of his last two meetings between the teams.
Richmond also feel that King was "dobbed in" last time these two teams met in a practice match in what is a breach of the old players code, so expect plenty of feeling between these fierce rivals.
Collingwood have been the second most effective team once inside fifty in the last six weeks and the Tigers can leek goals when slightly off so it's important they apply pressure to the Pies at all stages.
Richmond's strength is around the stoppages, they deny opposition first posession more then anyone else at the moment, and concede the fewest scores from clearances, they will need to make do without Cotchin for the next month which will no doubt hurt, but it gives the chance for someone else to fill the void and take their chance at an AFL career.
This game has the potential to be a belting, but I think Richmond are made of stronger stuff this year, and expect them to continue the development shown in Rounds 10-15, it won't be enough to beat one of the competitions bench mark teams, but they should make something of the contest.
Collingwood by 34 points.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Preview - St.Kilda vs Hawthorn -Round 17
St.Kilda vs Hawthorn - Etihad Stadium - Friday Night
St.Kilda - 3rd- 12-4 - 121.31%
Hawthorn - 7th -9-7-108.21%
The crunch games continue for the Hawks this friday night when they take on a St.Kilda side fresh from it's first defeat in two months.
The Hawks could hardly have been more impressive in dismantling the hapless Lions last week in Launceston whilst the Saints suffered the second heaviest defeat in their last 41 matches when they went down to the Pies by 48 points.
Hawthorn had 150 more disposals then the Lions, and a staggering 36 more Inside Fifties.
But St.Kilda at Etihad Stadium presents a far different challenge to the Brisbane Lions in chlly Tasmania just at the moment.
For St.Kilda this week is equally important although for different reasons.
This is not the time to be losing two games in a row, especially to fellow contenders and they will be eager to display the form that carried them to seven straight wins from Rounds 9-15.
St.Kilda were pressured to breaking point by Collingwood who "Out St.Kilda'd, St.Kilda" and the Hawks pressure skills are back near their very best over the last eight or nine weeks and they would have taken plenty out of the Pies performance.
St.Kilda went at a disposal efficiency of 57% last week, their lowest of the season and over the past seven weeks the Hawks have restricted teams to an efficiency of 63% which is the best in the competition, so the tools are there for them to do the same this week.
Hawthorn's forward line showed some very good signs last week, with Jarryd Roughead finding a bit of form in what has been an indifferent season, Osborne and Lewis functioning well accross half forward, and a heavy rotation of on ballers through the front half of the ground.
This week they also welcome back Lance Franklin who has kicked just four goals in his last three games against St.Kilda and eleven in his past six.
Lance however has been in ominous form and will be keen to prey on the vulnerability of his great mate Zac Dawson.
Zac has been firing the first shots in the war with a text message exchange with Buddy this week, but will need to be on his toes.
St.Kilda's main strength is restricting opposition entries inside fifty, and also limiting the quality of those entries.
St.Kilda concede less inside fifties then anyone else in the comp, and also allow teams to retain posession just 40% of the times they go inside which has been the hallmark with which they have built their aura in the last two seasons.
We mentioned the pressure the Pies applied to St.Kilda last week, but pressure skills remain the key for the Saints as well.
Hawthorn in the last six weeks have outscored their opposition by 50 points from stoppage first posessions, ranked number two in the competition, so St.Kilda will need to be sharp here and they have been since about Round 9 so it looms as a fascinating battle.
Josh Gibson has put his hand up to play on underdone skipper Nick Riewoldt and he will most likely get the job.
For Saint Nick it is a case once again of putting some miles in the legs and improving each week.
Jason Gram is a similar story as he looks to be underdone as well, so expect another step forward for him.
Nick Dal Santo should return for the saints, and possibly Ben McEvoy as well.
Dempster and Pattison will probably be the unlucky two to lose their spots in the side, although Pattison hasn't been too bad.
Dawson will get Franklin, and Gwilt or Blake will go with Roughead, Expect Clinton Jones to attempt to put the clamps on the soon to be 2010 Brownlow Medallist Luke Hodge.
Cyril Rioli is the x factor, I'm not sure the saints have a match up quick enough for him at the moment.
Conversely, Schneider and Milne have the power to cause headaches for the Hawks who's defence remains a touch of a concern particularly against the Smalls.
Matthew Stokes was the difference a fortnight ago against the Cats.
Koschitzke should also keep his spot despite poor form as he has the power to stretch the Hawks deep in their defensive 50.
Gilham will probably get him, with big jobs also for Stratton and Murphy down back against the Saints forward line.
Wayde Skipper played his best game for the club last week and will be eager to back up against the Gardiner/McEvoy or Gardiner/Pattison combination.
In the middle Hayes, Goddard, Montagna, Dal Santo, Jones, Ray and Peake will go head to head with Hodge, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Sewell, Lewis, Ellis and Rioli which is a dream match up on paper.
St.Kilda have won seven of their past nine against the Hawks, including the last four at Etihad Stadium so they will enter the match with good confidence but so will the Hawks who with the exception of a two point loss to Geelong have been flawless since early May.
Hawthorn simply have to win this game if they are to finish top four, but St.Kilda on the rebound, and back at Etihad Stadium should just do enough to get the points and steady the ship ahead of the run to September.
But it'll be tight.
St.Kilda by 7 points
St.Kilda - 3rd- 12-4 - 121.31%
Hawthorn - 7th -9-7-108.21%
The crunch games continue for the Hawks this friday night when they take on a St.Kilda side fresh from it's first defeat in two months.
The Hawks could hardly have been more impressive in dismantling the hapless Lions last week in Launceston whilst the Saints suffered the second heaviest defeat in their last 41 matches when they went down to the Pies by 48 points.
Hawthorn had 150 more disposals then the Lions, and a staggering 36 more Inside Fifties.
But St.Kilda at Etihad Stadium presents a far different challenge to the Brisbane Lions in chlly Tasmania just at the moment.
For St.Kilda this week is equally important although for different reasons.
This is not the time to be losing two games in a row, especially to fellow contenders and they will be eager to display the form that carried them to seven straight wins from Rounds 9-15.
St.Kilda were pressured to breaking point by Collingwood who "Out St.Kilda'd, St.Kilda" and the Hawks pressure skills are back near their very best over the last eight or nine weeks and they would have taken plenty out of the Pies performance.
St.Kilda went at a disposal efficiency of 57% last week, their lowest of the season and over the past seven weeks the Hawks have restricted teams to an efficiency of 63% which is the best in the competition, so the tools are there for them to do the same this week.
Hawthorn's forward line showed some very good signs last week, with Jarryd Roughead finding a bit of form in what has been an indifferent season, Osborne and Lewis functioning well accross half forward, and a heavy rotation of on ballers through the front half of the ground.
This week they also welcome back Lance Franklin who has kicked just four goals in his last three games against St.Kilda and eleven in his past six.
Lance however has been in ominous form and will be keen to prey on the vulnerability of his great mate Zac Dawson.
Zac has been firing the first shots in the war with a text message exchange with Buddy this week, but will need to be on his toes.
St.Kilda's main strength is restricting opposition entries inside fifty, and also limiting the quality of those entries.
St.Kilda concede less inside fifties then anyone else in the comp, and also allow teams to retain posession just 40% of the times they go inside which has been the hallmark with which they have built their aura in the last two seasons.
We mentioned the pressure the Pies applied to St.Kilda last week, but pressure skills remain the key for the Saints as well.
Hawthorn in the last six weeks have outscored their opposition by 50 points from stoppage first posessions, ranked number two in the competition, so St.Kilda will need to be sharp here and they have been since about Round 9 so it looms as a fascinating battle.
Josh Gibson has put his hand up to play on underdone skipper Nick Riewoldt and he will most likely get the job.
For Saint Nick it is a case once again of putting some miles in the legs and improving each week.
Jason Gram is a similar story as he looks to be underdone as well, so expect another step forward for him.
Nick Dal Santo should return for the saints, and possibly Ben McEvoy as well.
Dempster and Pattison will probably be the unlucky two to lose their spots in the side, although Pattison hasn't been too bad.
Dawson will get Franklin, and Gwilt or Blake will go with Roughead, Expect Clinton Jones to attempt to put the clamps on the soon to be 2010 Brownlow Medallist Luke Hodge.
Cyril Rioli is the x factor, I'm not sure the saints have a match up quick enough for him at the moment.
Conversely, Schneider and Milne have the power to cause headaches for the Hawks who's defence remains a touch of a concern particularly against the Smalls.
Matthew Stokes was the difference a fortnight ago against the Cats.
Koschitzke should also keep his spot despite poor form as he has the power to stretch the Hawks deep in their defensive 50.
Gilham will probably get him, with big jobs also for Stratton and Murphy down back against the Saints forward line.
Wayde Skipper played his best game for the club last week and will be eager to back up against the Gardiner/McEvoy or Gardiner/Pattison combination.
In the middle Hayes, Goddard, Montagna, Dal Santo, Jones, Ray and Peake will go head to head with Hodge, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Sewell, Lewis, Ellis and Rioli which is a dream match up on paper.
St.Kilda have won seven of their past nine against the Hawks, including the last four at Etihad Stadium so they will enter the match with good confidence but so will the Hawks who with the exception of a two point loss to Geelong have been flawless since early May.
Hawthorn simply have to win this game if they are to finish top four, but St.Kilda on the rebound, and back at Etihad Stadium should just do enough to get the points and steady the ship ahead of the run to September.
But it'll be tight.
St.Kilda by 7 points
Monday, July 19, 2010
Crossing the Line
The roles and responsibilites that come with being an AFL Coach are many and varied.
Kevin Sheedy is a footballing legend, no one can argue that.
Multiple premierships as a player, 27 years at the helm as coach of the Bombers, including four premierships and seven grand finals.
When he speaks about the game, people listen and it is in this regard that he has overstepped the line in recent weeks.
Since his departure from Essendon at the end of 2007, Sheedy has been an outspoken observer on all aspects of the game in a number of different mediums, most notibly through his role with the Herald Sun.
However right now, Kevin Sheedy is not just a Herald Sun journo, and a former Essendon coach. He is the current coach of an AFL franchise in Greater West Sydney and with this should come an extra element of responsibility and restraint.
Not only that, but he is also the President of the Coaches association, and has felt the need to attack both Mick Malthouse and Matthew Knights in recent weeks.
In the last three weeks, Kevin Sheedy has also written an article outlining the responsibility all clubs have to "pillage" Geelong's list in a way of evening up the competition.
Through this he publicly analysed Geelong's list and essentially picked it apart for all to see.
GWS find themselves in a unique position, no doubt, and yes they will be coming for some of Geelong's stars, and those of many other clubs, but this sort of article is innapropriate given the role Sheedy holds as coach, and through the association.
Could you imagine Michael Voss coming out and saying next year we are gunning for Bartel, Corey, Stokes and Chapman?
It's just not the way it's done, and Sheedy has a responsibility to show due respect to the Cats in his role as a coach of a rival club, something he has failed to do here.
However where I think he has really crossed the line is through his attack on the Essendon football club and his successor Matthew Knights.
This is wrong on three levels, firstly a lot of what Sheedy says is fundamentally incorrect, secondly it is potentially destabilising for a club that he had so much to do with for so long, and thirdly once again he is out of line to be meddling in the coaching affairs of a rival club whilst he is currently involved with GWS.
Kevin Sheedy has questioned on more then one occasion whether Matthew Knights was the right man, and quoted reasons such as the desire to go outside the Essendon Football Club in search of a successor.
Kevin need remember his own background. Limited coaching experience, after a distinguished playing career at Richmond. Matthew Knights comes from that same background, Sheedy was not an Essendon person when hired, so that is a touch hypocritical.
It also seems a touch egotistical, in that the names Sheedy raised are guys he coached who are out in the market place, namely Bomber Thompson, Damien Hardwick, Mark Harvey and Dean Bailey.
Sheedy is portraying a belief that the club overlooked people "he had groomed" for success in favour of someone outside the club which reeks a bit of arrogance.
He also need remember that Essendon's plight is largely due to his doing.
Sheedy was a remarkable coach of Essendon, but he went on at least three years too long. Essendon's premiership tilt of the early part of the century was over by 2003, it was here they needed a rebuild.
Instead players like Mal Michael, Ty Zantuck, Justin Murphy, Matthew Allan, Scott Camporeale, and Chris Heffernan (redrafted) were brought into the club in an attempt to keep them in the finals.
This backfired with the Bombers falling into the bottom four by 2005 and remaining out of the eight until last year.
Sheedy also had a reluctance to pick the kids in his last few years, due to a desire to remain competitive.
I imagine this stems from a reality that his time at the club was nearing an end, and he was attempting to delay the inevitable by picking list cloggers that exist merely to keep a club competitive.
Matthew Knights came in, and a mini clean out followed, the Bombers injected youth in 2008 and showed signs of improvement, following that up in 2009 with some exciting football and a surprise finals appearance.
On that note, Knights first two years were a big tick, but it was that surprise finals appearance that has hurt him now.
Essendon made the eight on the back of 10 wins which over inflated a few opinions as to where they were at.
Right now, on the back of some injuries, a tough draw, and a drop in confidence Essendon have fallen away.
Knights may and probably will pay the price but I firmly believe that's unfair.
Lloyd and Lucas were not going to be a part of Essendon's next premiership team, and make no mistake, Scott Lucas was finished as a player.
Lloyd we need also remember was going to miss the first six weeks of the season anyway, and his body had been showing signs of wear and tear for two years.
Gumbleton, Hurley, Danniher and co are the future and giving them games is the best way to fast track that.
Sheedy would have kept probably both Lloyd and Lucas but that was part of the problem in the first place.
Keeping veterans too long saw Essendon get to the predicament they did 4-5 years ago.
Perhaps from a PR point of view, Knights could have managed it better, but the decision in essence was correct.
Sheedy is no longer the coach of Essendon, and his comments smack of pigheadedness and a lack of respect.
Throw in his remarks this week that Mick Malthouse is "the grumpiest man in the league" and has trouble building a list and we are seeing an alarming trend.
"There's no reason why I can't make comment on any club" Sheedy said on SEN yesterday.
"I'm not going to wait for anyone to tell me when I can make a comment about any club, any time.
"It's very, very awkward, but when you're working in the press and media, at times you have to make a comment that doesn't please everybody"
Well Sheeds, I'm sorry but yes there is a dam good reason why you can't, and the sooner you realise this the better.
A role within the media is fine, but it needs to be handled with due responsibility. Your primary responsibility remains to the game, and to your colleagues within the coaching ranks.
Coaches Association Chief Executive Danny Frawley admitted there were concerns.
"At times we think the lines have been crossed and we have had that discussion" he said.
"There's a fine line where he goes over and above.
"Would he be making comments if he was actually coaching a team on match day? Probably not"
Well if this is the case, then he shouldn't be making them now.
Sheedy is a great salesman, and will be fantastic for the game in GWS.
However with every role comes responsibility, and unfortunately in the last month, Sheedy has let his ego take control and entered into areas a man in his position should not.
His responsibilites as the President of the coaching association, and as an Essendon legend demand some restraint.
It's time he shows it.
Kevin Sheedy is a footballing legend, no one can argue that.
Multiple premierships as a player, 27 years at the helm as coach of the Bombers, including four premierships and seven grand finals.
When he speaks about the game, people listen and it is in this regard that he has overstepped the line in recent weeks.
Since his departure from Essendon at the end of 2007, Sheedy has been an outspoken observer on all aspects of the game in a number of different mediums, most notibly through his role with the Herald Sun.
However right now, Kevin Sheedy is not just a Herald Sun journo, and a former Essendon coach. He is the current coach of an AFL franchise in Greater West Sydney and with this should come an extra element of responsibility and restraint.
Not only that, but he is also the President of the Coaches association, and has felt the need to attack both Mick Malthouse and Matthew Knights in recent weeks.
In the last three weeks, Kevin Sheedy has also written an article outlining the responsibility all clubs have to "pillage" Geelong's list in a way of evening up the competition.
Through this he publicly analysed Geelong's list and essentially picked it apart for all to see.
GWS find themselves in a unique position, no doubt, and yes they will be coming for some of Geelong's stars, and those of many other clubs, but this sort of article is innapropriate given the role Sheedy holds as coach, and through the association.
Could you imagine Michael Voss coming out and saying next year we are gunning for Bartel, Corey, Stokes and Chapman?
It's just not the way it's done, and Sheedy has a responsibility to show due respect to the Cats in his role as a coach of a rival club, something he has failed to do here.
However where I think he has really crossed the line is through his attack on the Essendon football club and his successor Matthew Knights.
This is wrong on three levels, firstly a lot of what Sheedy says is fundamentally incorrect, secondly it is potentially destabilising for a club that he had so much to do with for so long, and thirdly once again he is out of line to be meddling in the coaching affairs of a rival club whilst he is currently involved with GWS.
Kevin Sheedy has questioned on more then one occasion whether Matthew Knights was the right man, and quoted reasons such as the desire to go outside the Essendon Football Club in search of a successor.
Kevin need remember his own background. Limited coaching experience, after a distinguished playing career at Richmond. Matthew Knights comes from that same background, Sheedy was not an Essendon person when hired, so that is a touch hypocritical.
It also seems a touch egotistical, in that the names Sheedy raised are guys he coached who are out in the market place, namely Bomber Thompson, Damien Hardwick, Mark Harvey and Dean Bailey.
Sheedy is portraying a belief that the club overlooked people "he had groomed" for success in favour of someone outside the club which reeks a bit of arrogance.
He also need remember that Essendon's plight is largely due to his doing.
Sheedy was a remarkable coach of Essendon, but he went on at least three years too long. Essendon's premiership tilt of the early part of the century was over by 2003, it was here they needed a rebuild.
Instead players like Mal Michael, Ty Zantuck, Justin Murphy, Matthew Allan, Scott Camporeale, and Chris Heffernan (redrafted) were brought into the club in an attempt to keep them in the finals.
This backfired with the Bombers falling into the bottom four by 2005 and remaining out of the eight until last year.
Sheedy also had a reluctance to pick the kids in his last few years, due to a desire to remain competitive.
I imagine this stems from a reality that his time at the club was nearing an end, and he was attempting to delay the inevitable by picking list cloggers that exist merely to keep a club competitive.
Matthew Knights came in, and a mini clean out followed, the Bombers injected youth in 2008 and showed signs of improvement, following that up in 2009 with some exciting football and a surprise finals appearance.
On that note, Knights first two years were a big tick, but it was that surprise finals appearance that has hurt him now.
Essendon made the eight on the back of 10 wins which over inflated a few opinions as to where they were at.
Right now, on the back of some injuries, a tough draw, and a drop in confidence Essendon have fallen away.
Knights may and probably will pay the price but I firmly believe that's unfair.
Lloyd and Lucas were not going to be a part of Essendon's next premiership team, and make no mistake, Scott Lucas was finished as a player.
Lloyd we need also remember was going to miss the first six weeks of the season anyway, and his body had been showing signs of wear and tear for two years.
Gumbleton, Hurley, Danniher and co are the future and giving them games is the best way to fast track that.
Sheedy would have kept probably both Lloyd and Lucas but that was part of the problem in the first place.
Keeping veterans too long saw Essendon get to the predicament they did 4-5 years ago.
Perhaps from a PR point of view, Knights could have managed it better, but the decision in essence was correct.
Sheedy is no longer the coach of Essendon, and his comments smack of pigheadedness and a lack of respect.
Throw in his remarks this week that Mick Malthouse is "the grumpiest man in the league" and has trouble building a list and we are seeing an alarming trend.
"There's no reason why I can't make comment on any club" Sheedy said on SEN yesterday.
"I'm not going to wait for anyone to tell me when I can make a comment about any club, any time.
"It's very, very awkward, but when you're working in the press and media, at times you have to make a comment that doesn't please everybody"
Well Sheeds, I'm sorry but yes there is a dam good reason why you can't, and the sooner you realise this the better.
A role within the media is fine, but it needs to be handled with due responsibility. Your primary responsibility remains to the game, and to your colleagues within the coaching ranks.
Coaches Association Chief Executive Danny Frawley admitted there were concerns.
"At times we think the lines have been crossed and we have had that discussion" he said.
"There's a fine line where he goes over and above.
"Would he be making comments if he was actually coaching a team on match day? Probably not"
Well if this is the case, then he shouldn't be making them now.
Sheedy is a great salesman, and will be fantastic for the game in GWS.
However with every role comes responsibility, and unfortunately in the last month, Sheedy has let his ego take control and entered into areas a man in his position should not.
His responsibilites as the President of the coaching association, and as an Essendon legend demand some restraint.
It's time he shows it.
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