Westcoast vs North Melbourne - Subiaco - Sunday
Westcoast 16th - 4-16- 77.53%
North Melbourne 9th - 9-11 - 84.88%
By the time the ball bounces on Sunday afternoon North Melbourne will know if they can still compete in the finals. For the Westcoast Eagles, their fate was officially sealed last week in a narrow loss to Port Adelaide. They will now officially claim their first ever wooden spoon.
The Kangaroos sit six points out of the eight with two games to go. If the eighth placed Hawks defeat Fremantle as expected, then the make up of the finals is complete. But if they somehow get rolled, North Melbourne are a huge chance to sneek up and claim a surprise september berth against the expectations of most.
Regardless of what happens on saturday afternoon though the game is a significant one in that it marks the 300th game of one of the Kangaroos favourite sons.
Brent Harvey will chalk up the wonderful milestone away from home, but in true form he said it was more important that his club kept it's september hopes alive rather then he bask in any personal glory.
His achievements will not be lost on his teammates though who will be eager to deliver a victory on his big day.
North Melbourne are an honest side, and as easy one to assess. They will get smashed by the top four, be competitive against the next four, and then beat everybody else.
Everytime they lead at half time they win, everytime they trail at halftime they lose, they are a pretty straight forward sort of team.
It has been a year of progress and they will in all likelihood end the season with eleven wins.
If somehow Hawthorn lose, the Roos will play off for a spot in the eight in a Sunday twilight fixture, a game the AFL tucked away assuming it would be of little signficance in the final round.
An area of concern for North Melbourne has been forward line pressure. They laid just two tackles inside fifty last week, and on the big ground at Subiaco you need to keep the ball inside your attacking zone as long as possible as you can get slaughtered on the rebound in the open space.
North Melbourne conceeded 10 goals from turnovers last week, but the pressure they will face this week won't be at the same level as was dished up by the Saints.
Lachie Hansen's star continues to rise, and the underrated value of Aaron Edwards has been evident as well. He has kicked at least two goals in a game eight times from twelve matches this year which is an indication of his importance, not just in terms of providing an option but also applying consistent scoreboard pressure.
The Daniel Well's announcement will be a nice boost for all concerned at the club with speculation mounting that he would be heading either to westcoast or up north to the Suns franchise.
Scott Thompson got sucked in a couple of times last week and the one missing piece of the puzzle for him is to smarten up a touch. He defends well, keeps his opponent honest and niggles the hell out of you, but occasionally you can knock him off his game.
For the Eagles the last two weeks have been so close but yet so far with two narrow defeats both coming in the last forty seconds of the game.
Their form hasn't been horrendous, but their inability to maintain posession of the footy has hurt them badly. On too many occasions they give the ball up meekly and had control of the tempo in the last minute of both games only to lose the footy under little pressure.
Their disposal efficiency in the last month is 66% which ranks 15th and last week was their worst of the season, the Kangaroos are very efficient on the counter attack and very good in setting up scoring opportunities through the method they use going forward and they will hurt them.
Over that same period the Eagles have produced 34 direct turnovers of which 19 have resulted in goals.
Mark LeCras has been well held over the past fortnight whilst young Andrew Strjik's star keeps rising with a couple of solid games.
With Todd Goldstein out this week, Cox and Natanui will be hoping too take advantage in the ruck against Hamish McIntosh who has lost his partner in crime.
Westcoast have some pace through the middle of the ground that can exploit teams, but they need to attack through the corridor, particularly at Subiaco.
The Eagles have scored just 71% of their goals from the centre corridor this season which ranks last.
When you play on the biggest ground in the country every second week, you can't afford to be playing that way.
Scott Thompson could be an option for LeCras this week, with Grima on Kennedy, although maybe Brady Rawlings might play down back on the frenchman.
At the other end Edwards, Hansen, Warren and Thomas provide a degree of versatility I don't think the Eagles can contain.
They may be a five goal better side at home, but it won't be enough to stop the Roos giving Boomer Harvey a much deserved win for his 300th game.
It may be close, but like the last fortnight, more then likely it will be no cigar for Woosha's men who will then turn their attention to a season finale.........against Geelong.
North Melbourne by 16 poinys
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Preview - Essendon vs Brisbane - Round 21
Essendon vs Brisbane - Etihad Stadium - Sunday
Essendon 13th - 7-13 - 81.09%
Brisbane 14th - 6-14 - 81.25%
Two of the seasons more dissapointing sides will lock horns at Etihad Stadium on Sunday in a clash of minimal significance in terms of ladder placings.
It is however a significant day for the one of the modern era's great players with Jonathan Brown set to line up in his 200th game.
The match is also important for the beseiged Matthew Knights who is under all sorts of pressure to keep his job for the 2011 season.
Essendon were atrocious last week against the red hot Magpies whilst the Lions had a dip against Adelaide, but ultimately fell short in a tight tussle.
This week the Lions will be straightened up by the return of their inspirational skipper and will give themselves something of a chance in this contest if they can provide the sort of run through the middle that they got for much of last week.
If you want an example of how much the Lions miss a fit and firing Jonathan Brown then the following stats will demonstrate.
The Lions score a goal from just 23% of their inside fifty entries this year, ranked last. They also score at an accuracy of 55%, ranked 14th and average just 6.5 goalkickers a game, ranked 13th.
Much is left to Brown who on one leg got them accross the line against the Eagles a fortnight ago.
He also has a terrific record against the Bombers at Etihad Stadium so if they can feed him some doesn't ball, he could play havoc with Essendon's vulnerable defence.
Pressure through the middle will be important for the Lions, as it is for everyone for that matter and this is an area that can improve.
They allow opposition sides to generate the second most disposals of any team in the competition and whilst their midfield is very attacking, it can certainly be opened up the other way.
Brennan, Power, Rischitelli and Black are capable on their day, with Clark and Leunberger in good form, and when you add Rockliff, Redden and young Harwood the Lions have a good mix of class, the lack of a genuine stopper, and a solid spread of inside midfielders has hurt them.
Injuries have played a big part this year for them, and you can tell their conditioning is an issue as the long season drags on with the Lions winning just two final quarters in the past few months.
For Essendon the last three weeks has been an example of their spasmodic nature with a wild fluctuation between their best and their worst.
They smashed the Saints three weeks ago and since then have been absolutely demolished by Carlton and Collingwood with Matthew Knights once again feeling the backlash from all and sundry.
Last week Essendon laid just 44 tackles and conceeded 85 points directly from turnovers.
This indicates that they were sloppy, but also didn't work hard enough defensively. It's one thing to be outgunned by an in form opponent, but you should be competitive and at least be able to fight your way through.
That was the most dissapointing factor for them on the night and it continues some alarming trends.
Essendon have conceeded 108 points a game since the start of 2008 which is the most of any side in the competition, and last week Collingwood took 17 marks inside fifty which is a combination of a vulnerable defence and a midfield that gets opened up.
They concede seven more inside fifties then they generate as well so perhaps evidence is mounting that they just aren't good enough.
Matthew Knights inherited a poor list, and has had a wretched run of injuries so I feel he deserves more time, but you'd be hoping some of these trends would start to be reversed and that doesn't seem to be happening.
In Essendon's favour this sunday is the fact they play at home against a team that doesn't appear to have the tools to exploit them.
Brisbane aren't applying enough pressure themselves, and are also sloppy going forward and as bad as Essendon can be, the Lions have been very poor for the best part of four months.
Michael Hurley should get first crack at Brown to further his development, whilst Mark McVeigh might get the dangerous Banfield.
At the other end Merrett will get Neagle, with Patfull to play on Monfries. McGrath would be the second option.
Daniel Rich might run with Stanton through the middle as Stanton is still highly vulnerable to the tag.
In a game that is a nervous one for tipsters I think Essendon will release the pressure valve this sunday with a solid home victory against the dissapointing Lions.
It might not be pretty, and an upset is possible, but Matthew Knights will sleep a little easier next week after his boys get the job done.
Essendon by 24 points
Essendon 13th - 7-13 - 81.09%
Brisbane 14th - 6-14 - 81.25%
Two of the seasons more dissapointing sides will lock horns at Etihad Stadium on Sunday in a clash of minimal significance in terms of ladder placings.
It is however a significant day for the one of the modern era's great players with Jonathan Brown set to line up in his 200th game.
The match is also important for the beseiged Matthew Knights who is under all sorts of pressure to keep his job for the 2011 season.
Essendon were atrocious last week against the red hot Magpies whilst the Lions had a dip against Adelaide, but ultimately fell short in a tight tussle.
This week the Lions will be straightened up by the return of their inspirational skipper and will give themselves something of a chance in this contest if they can provide the sort of run through the middle that they got for much of last week.
If you want an example of how much the Lions miss a fit and firing Jonathan Brown then the following stats will demonstrate.
The Lions score a goal from just 23% of their inside fifty entries this year, ranked last. They also score at an accuracy of 55%, ranked 14th and average just 6.5 goalkickers a game, ranked 13th.
Much is left to Brown who on one leg got them accross the line against the Eagles a fortnight ago.
He also has a terrific record against the Bombers at Etihad Stadium so if they can feed him some doesn't ball, he could play havoc with Essendon's vulnerable defence.
Pressure through the middle will be important for the Lions, as it is for everyone for that matter and this is an area that can improve.
They allow opposition sides to generate the second most disposals of any team in the competition and whilst their midfield is very attacking, it can certainly be opened up the other way.
Brennan, Power, Rischitelli and Black are capable on their day, with Clark and Leunberger in good form, and when you add Rockliff, Redden and young Harwood the Lions have a good mix of class, the lack of a genuine stopper, and a solid spread of inside midfielders has hurt them.
Injuries have played a big part this year for them, and you can tell their conditioning is an issue as the long season drags on with the Lions winning just two final quarters in the past few months.
For Essendon the last three weeks has been an example of their spasmodic nature with a wild fluctuation between their best and their worst.
They smashed the Saints three weeks ago and since then have been absolutely demolished by Carlton and Collingwood with Matthew Knights once again feeling the backlash from all and sundry.
Last week Essendon laid just 44 tackles and conceeded 85 points directly from turnovers.
This indicates that they were sloppy, but also didn't work hard enough defensively. It's one thing to be outgunned by an in form opponent, but you should be competitive and at least be able to fight your way through.
That was the most dissapointing factor for them on the night and it continues some alarming trends.
Essendon have conceeded 108 points a game since the start of 2008 which is the most of any side in the competition, and last week Collingwood took 17 marks inside fifty which is a combination of a vulnerable defence and a midfield that gets opened up.
They concede seven more inside fifties then they generate as well so perhaps evidence is mounting that they just aren't good enough.
Matthew Knights inherited a poor list, and has had a wretched run of injuries so I feel he deserves more time, but you'd be hoping some of these trends would start to be reversed and that doesn't seem to be happening.
In Essendon's favour this sunday is the fact they play at home against a team that doesn't appear to have the tools to exploit them.
Brisbane aren't applying enough pressure themselves, and are also sloppy going forward and as bad as Essendon can be, the Lions have been very poor for the best part of four months.
Michael Hurley should get first crack at Brown to further his development, whilst Mark McVeigh might get the dangerous Banfield.
At the other end Merrett will get Neagle, with Patfull to play on Monfries. McGrath would be the second option.
Daniel Rich might run with Stanton through the middle as Stanton is still highly vulnerable to the tag.
In a game that is a nervous one for tipsters I think Essendon will release the pressure valve this sunday with a solid home victory against the dissapointing Lions.
It might not be pretty, and an upset is possible, but Matthew Knights will sleep a little easier next week after his boys get the job done.
Essendon by 24 points
Preview - Port Adelaide vs Melbourne Round 21
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne - Aami Stadium - Sunday
Port Adelaide - 12th - 8-12 - 78.58%
Melbourne -10th - 8-11-1 - 96.05%
In probably the most difficult game to assess of all the matches this round Melbourne venture to Aami Stadium to take on Port Adelaide.
Melbourne enter the clash having lost 14 straight games at Aami Stadium by an average of nine goals whilst Port Adelaide have won their past three matches at home.
On face value that would suggest Port Adelaide should get the chocolates, but pound for pound the Dees are a better side in most areas, the only issue is their ability to play well at a ground where almost none of their list would have experienced a win.
James McDonald plays his 250th and penultimate game for the Demons in something that will definitely give them a lift and despite their finals chances ending last week they still have much to play for.
Finishing the year in ninth with double figure wins would be a fantastic effort given where they have come from and would be a nice launching pad into 2010.
Last week was a terrific contest but ultimately it was probably experience and a touch more class that got Hawthorn over the line against the Dees, but the loss of Aaron Davey early in the game certainly didn't help their cause.
But as the game went on, it was the stoppage work that may have undone them. Hawthorn had 31 more contested posessions then Melbourne last week which was the Demons worst discrepancy this season.
They were also a bit sloppy coming out of defence with a kicking efficiency of just 76% in the back half which is an area they remain a bit vulnerable in.
Frawley, Bartram, Garland etc are all terrific defenders, but they can be a touch sloppy with their disposal. A lot of it relates to poise under pressure and I'm sure they'll be ok in time.
An area Melbourne have built their rise on this season has been pressure on the ball carrier.
They concede less marks inside fifty then anyone else, but also allow opponents to have a disposal efficiency of just 65% which ranks third in the competition.
The more they play in these games, the better they will get at it, and it's a loss that provides short term pain, but doesn't do the club any harm whatsoever.
For Port Adelaide, Matthew Primus has produced three consecutive Aami Stadium wins, with a horrendous defeat at Etihad thrown in the middle.
The result overall sits better then a pass and he remains favourite I would say for the job next year.
Save for a stinker in the next fortnight he would be in the box seat. Especially if Port win both of their games in the run home.
Last week wasn't pretty, but enthralling just the same, and it was essentially a battle of who would make the fewest mistakes.
After controlling the tempo for much of the night, Port Adelaide let the Eagles back in with four consecutive goals in the final term, only to pinch the win courtesy of a David Rodan point late in the contest.
Port Adelaide's problem is retaining posession of the ball. They have no problems winning it around the stoppages but over the past six weeks they have kept posession just 70% of the times they disposed of the footy which ranks last in the competition.
Melbourne are exceptional at slicing teams up on the rebound and are also terrific at pressuring the ball carrier so Port will need to be very careful.
Port Adelaide are also the competitions second lowest scoring side and are the least effective naturally when going forward as a result. Melbourne are very good at restricting sides when they go forward as they generally lose the inside fifty count, yet remain competitive.
Melbourne have won the inside fifties just twice in the past 16 weeks which is a remarkable stat, but it does highlight the style of game they play which is built largely on conservation and then counter attack.
I would expect Jay Schulz to be comfronted with James Frawley, and perhaps Westhoff to get Garland.
At the other end Chaplin will get Brad Green and Liam Jurrah might draw Carlisle or vice versa.
Melbourne are breaking down a few barriers at present and they will break down another one this sunday and win at their hoodoo ground.
Port boast solid wins in the last month over the Crows and Hawthorn (lets throw in westcoast for good measure), but Melbourne's style of footy poses difficulties to handle in regards to match ups and structure and if ever they are going to break through it will be this week against the plucky but unreliable power side.
Melbourne by 13 points
Port Adelaide - 12th - 8-12 - 78.58%
Melbourne -10th - 8-11-1 - 96.05%
In probably the most difficult game to assess of all the matches this round Melbourne venture to Aami Stadium to take on Port Adelaide.
Melbourne enter the clash having lost 14 straight games at Aami Stadium by an average of nine goals whilst Port Adelaide have won their past three matches at home.
On face value that would suggest Port Adelaide should get the chocolates, but pound for pound the Dees are a better side in most areas, the only issue is their ability to play well at a ground where almost none of their list would have experienced a win.
James McDonald plays his 250th and penultimate game for the Demons in something that will definitely give them a lift and despite their finals chances ending last week they still have much to play for.
Finishing the year in ninth with double figure wins would be a fantastic effort given where they have come from and would be a nice launching pad into 2010.
Last week was a terrific contest but ultimately it was probably experience and a touch more class that got Hawthorn over the line against the Dees, but the loss of Aaron Davey early in the game certainly didn't help their cause.
But as the game went on, it was the stoppage work that may have undone them. Hawthorn had 31 more contested posessions then Melbourne last week which was the Demons worst discrepancy this season.
They were also a bit sloppy coming out of defence with a kicking efficiency of just 76% in the back half which is an area they remain a bit vulnerable in.
Frawley, Bartram, Garland etc are all terrific defenders, but they can be a touch sloppy with their disposal. A lot of it relates to poise under pressure and I'm sure they'll be ok in time.
An area Melbourne have built their rise on this season has been pressure on the ball carrier.
They concede less marks inside fifty then anyone else, but also allow opponents to have a disposal efficiency of just 65% which ranks third in the competition.
The more they play in these games, the better they will get at it, and it's a loss that provides short term pain, but doesn't do the club any harm whatsoever.
For Port Adelaide, Matthew Primus has produced three consecutive Aami Stadium wins, with a horrendous defeat at Etihad thrown in the middle.
The result overall sits better then a pass and he remains favourite I would say for the job next year.
Save for a stinker in the next fortnight he would be in the box seat. Especially if Port win both of their games in the run home.
Last week wasn't pretty, but enthralling just the same, and it was essentially a battle of who would make the fewest mistakes.
After controlling the tempo for much of the night, Port Adelaide let the Eagles back in with four consecutive goals in the final term, only to pinch the win courtesy of a David Rodan point late in the contest.
Port Adelaide's problem is retaining posession of the ball. They have no problems winning it around the stoppages but over the past six weeks they have kept posession just 70% of the times they disposed of the footy which ranks last in the competition.
Melbourne are exceptional at slicing teams up on the rebound and are also terrific at pressuring the ball carrier so Port will need to be very careful.
Port Adelaide are also the competitions second lowest scoring side and are the least effective naturally when going forward as a result. Melbourne are very good at restricting sides when they go forward as they generally lose the inside fifty count, yet remain competitive.
Melbourne have won the inside fifties just twice in the past 16 weeks which is a remarkable stat, but it does highlight the style of game they play which is built largely on conservation and then counter attack.
I would expect Jay Schulz to be comfronted with James Frawley, and perhaps Westhoff to get Garland.
At the other end Chaplin will get Brad Green and Liam Jurrah might draw Carlisle or vice versa.
Melbourne are breaking down a few barriers at present and they will break down another one this sunday and win at their hoodoo ground.
Port boast solid wins in the last month over the Crows and Hawthorn (lets throw in westcoast for good measure), but Melbourne's style of footy poses difficulties to handle in regards to match ups and structure and if ever they are going to break through it will be this week against the plucky but unreliable power side.
Melbourne by 13 points
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