St.Kilda vs Western Bulldogs - MCG- Saturday Night
Last week :
St.Kilda - Week Off
Western Bulldogs - defeated Sydney by 5 points 11.11.77 to 10.12.72
Much like Friday night's clash we are comfronted with some deja vu with the Saints and the Bulldogs meeting in a Preliminary Final for the second year in a row.
Like Geelong, these two teams have been regular features in the top four for the past three years and once again they are in the thick of the action at the pointy end of the season.
St.Kilda earned a week off on the back of a triumphant four point win over Geelong a fortnight ago, whilst the Bulldogs responded to a week of questions with a gutsy five point win over the in form Swans.
That win was even more special given they were five goals down nearing half time against a team gunning for six straight victories.
A lot is said about junk time goals, and the frustration coach's feel when their teams give up a major or two late in a quarter but few would be feeling that quite like Paul Roos.
With the game slipping away the Bulldogs snared two very quick goals in the last two minutes of the second quarter to cut the margin to 16 points and more importantly swing the momentum of the contest.
When Jarrod Grant goaled in the first minute of the third term the direction of the game had changed completely and the Bulldogs were able to work their way to a memorable victory and keep the premiership dream alive.
Hooper contributed one of those crucial second term goals amongst his modest five posession debut but he will hold his spot and could still be an x factor against the Saints on saturday night.
Dale Morris's inclusion is important given his recent battles with Nick Riewoldt, and it does take pressure off the sore and out of sorts Tom Williams as well as allowing Brian Lake to peel off and be third man in at a contest.
From Rounds 1-18 the Bulldogs had an average disposal efficiency of 68% the best in the competition, but since then they have averaged 61.5% which is the worst in the league. They will need to be sharp and precise in the face of St.Kilda's relentless pressure if they are to create enough chances to win this game.
Ryan Griffen is the main man for the Bulldogs in the middle in the absence of Adam Cooney and he has been superb in both finals.
His ability to deliver long and accurately, and also pop up for a couple of goals is something the Saints will need to curb.
Barry Hall is the potential match winner in this one though, and he has hurt the Saints on this stage in the past.
Last week he had 11 score involvements from the Bulldogs 22 shots which is a huge percentage and expect Zac Dawson to get first crack at him with Fisher, Gwilt and Blake other options.
The key for the Saints though is to peel off and get extra players at the contest but also to cut off the supply and lower the number of entries.
If they do that, the Bulldogs will struggle as they averaged just 59 points a game against the Saints in the last four meetings.
For St.Kilda last week saw them produce a match simulation hit out at Moorabbin to try to replicate a game like environment so they can stay sharp and avoid a slow start like they had in last year's Preliminary Final.
A slow start that night could easily have been costly, and the Bulldogs will get a major sniff if they start well again.
A fortnight ago the Saints were fantastic against the Cats and for much of the night looked like blowing them away.
The tide turned late which is credit to Geelong but St.Kilda appeared to find another level after a long home and away season the moment September began.
Stephen Milne played clearly his best final, Koschitzke started well and Nick Riewoldt ran hard all day to be a constant danger.
The midfield was superb for most of the night both offensively and through pressure going the other way so Ross Lyon will be looking for a repeat performance this week.
Stephen Baker was the big discussion point all week but once again it appears as if he will miss out.
He has been named first emergency which raises the mystery around a possible late change but one suspects Lyon is unlikely to play games and Bakes will have to prey the Saints get through and then train the house down in the hope of winning a spot in a Grand Final.
Geary, Steven and Armitage would be the next three in line for a game but the Saints have gone unchanged from the team that did the job against the Cats.
Defensively St.Kilda have conceeded less points then anyone else for the second year in a row and have also recorded the highest disposal efficiency in the competition this season.
That points to their tendency to control the tempo of games, keep the ball off their opponents and deny them inside fifty opportunities as well as free running ball.
St.Kilda have been the most efficient side going forward as well in the past five weeks in terms of retaining posession once inside fifty so the Bulldogs will need to replicate the pressure they applied in last year's Preliminary Final.
Zac Dawson I expect will get first crack at Barry Hall with Gwilt to play on Murphy if he goes forward.
Gilbert or Fisher might take Grant with Dempster perhaps likely to play on Brad Johnson.
Clinton Jones who normally tags Cooney might take Boyd or Cross this time in the engine room with Picken likely to play on Dal Santo or Montagna.
At the other end Morris should get Riewoldt, Lake to take Koschitzke with Harbrow on Milne and Adam Schneider another key match up.
On to the tip and most would know it is difficult to tip with anything other then my heart on this one but my head also tells me the Saints should have the answers in what will be a tight affair for most of the night.
The Bulldogs are a top four side, and have been for a long time and despite their apparent fitness issues will be a very hard side to beat.
They also possess the run and flair which at times has caused the Saints grief this year, most notably when they played Carlton and Essendon.
However I just feel with a near full strength side, their own drive to succeed in the wake of 2009 and the benefit of a week off the Saints will be too strong and should pull away late to book a berth in back to back grand finals.
Nothing is easy in preliminary finals, and this won't be either, but St.Kilda to prevail.
St.Kilda by 28 points
Can someone please tell Stephen J. Peake to put a sock in his gob? He was unbearable on SEN following St.Kilda's win in the Preliminary Final and was banging on about how the last time St.Kilda played in two Grand Finals they won the premiership.
ReplyDeleteWell for his information, the last Collingwood player to win the AFL MVP was Darren Millane in 1990, and the last time that Collingwood beat a Victorian team in the finals was also in 1990, and Collingwood won the premiership!
I also heard that someone said the previous two Preliminary Finalists that won on the Saturday night went on to the premiership. On the other side of that though, in the previous two years, the team that won by the bigger margin in the Preliminary Finals went on to win the premiership, and Collingwood won this weekend by more than St.Kilda did.
It's fine if people are going to mention these bits of trivia of the past, but it's not fine if some are mentioned and some are conveniently ignored! Finally, the Melbourne supporter that is on air with Darren Parkin is also unbearable. I am used to opposition supporters such as him do not like Collingwood, but is it possible for him to control it somewhat when he is on the radio?