Fremantle vs Westcoast - Subiaco - Sunday
Westcoast 16th - 4-13- 78.40%
Fremantle 5th - 11-6 - 111.62%
Derby number 32 will be full of the usual intrigue this Sunday when Fremantle and Westcoast lock horns at Subiaco.
Last week Westcoast missed a golden opportunity to drag themselves off the bottom of the ladder when they led Carlton by more then four goals at half time.
But like so many times before this season, they were found wanting after the long break and remain anchored on just 16 points at the foot of the table.
For Fremantle, there would have been a few concerns over the preceeding three weeks leading up to the Bulldogs game.
Those concerns were well and truelly intensified when they succumbed to the tune of 82 points at Etihad Stadium and dropped out of the top four for the first time in ten weeks.
Admittedly six or seven of the side's best 22 were unavailable, but the concerning past was they looked tired.
Young sides often can hit a bit of a roadblock at this stage of the season and it does look like that has happened to the purple army.
Their intensity, gut running, accountability etc has fallen away, offensive and defensive pressure too.
A damning stat is Fremantle have lost the uncontested posession count in each of their last five games, dating back to the split round by an average of 54.
Last week they conceded 302 uncontested posessions to the Bulldogs. The most they have conceded since late 2008.
This indicates they aren't running as hard to cover space, and they aren't pressuring opposition sides to the level they are normally accustomed too.
They also conceded 29 points from turnovers last week, their second worst in a game this season so their skills have dropped away too.
Guys like Hill, Duffield, Ibbotson etc aren't having the same impact, and with Barlow gone, Fyfe, Hasleby etc battling injury niggles it is no surprise they have dropped off.
However whilst the early part of this report would suggest doom and gloom, Fremantle still sit 5th, only percentage out of the four, and with a difficult yet not horrendous run home.
Top four is not out of the question, and at the very least they should host a final in the first week both of which would be good results for this club given where they came from last year. Fantastic even!
David Mundy returns this week, and he has been excellent. Sadly it comes at the expense of Rhys Palmer, so the midfield group is unable to settle.
Tarrant and Bradley return to add Key position strength and tigthen up that defence.
Expect Hayden or Tarrant who is deceptively quick to get Le Cras. Probably Hayden I would think.
Grover should get Kennedy with McPharlin likely to take Lynch if he starts forward.
In the middle Suban might get a role running with Priddis who is still the main clearance man for the Eagles.
Westcoast lose the experience of Selwood to a shoulder injury, and also the youthful excitement of Ashton Hams who will miss a month after a crude hit on Dennis Armfield last week.
An extended bench has been named, but given the running strength of Freo (at their best), I would expect Swift and Jones to be the two who play.
The Eagles were very good for half of last weeks game, but as is so often the case they fell away. It was particularly dissapointing given they had a great win on the road the previous week, and had jumped to a 26 point half time lead on home soil.
To lose convincingly from there is a clear indication that the Eagles are at best bottom four, and a more then worthy wooden spoon winner if it goes that way.
Whilst we have spoken about Fremantle's outside freeze in recent weeks, they are still one of the more improved stoppage teams in the comp.
Westcoast conversely have lost the contested posession count in all bar three games this season, they have also conceeded more points then anyone else bar Essendon, 105 a game on average to be exact, and Fremantle still have a lot of fire power in the front half.
Brown or Mackenzie will have the tough job of manning Pavlich in attack and depending on how high up the ground he goes, they might sacrifice height for running power and strength and hence Shannon Hurn might get the job.
Mundy will be tagged, but it's a question of who is capable of doing the lock down role.
Perhaps Waters might get a crack at it, or they will back themselves head to head through Masten, Ebert, Embley, Priddis and co.
Never write off the underdog in a derby, and for that end Westcoast are a chance.
They pushed Fremantle hard when they met earlier this year, and it was only the way they butchered the ball going forward that cost them that game.
The problem is for the Eagles that is an all too familiar story.
Fremantle aren't firing on all cylinders by any means, but amidst all the apparent questions one thing we do know is they are still a far better side then their cross town neighbours.
And try as they might, the Eagles won't get them Sunday
Fremantle by 17 points
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Preview - Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Round 18
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne - Etihad Stadium - Sunday
Western Bulldogs 4th - 11-6- 137.98%
North Melbourne 9th - 8-9 - 86.05%
The first glimpse of the Western Bulldogs post Jason Akermanis could not have been more positive. If you were looking for a re-affirmation that the boys from the kennel could still win the flag, you didn't have to wait long to get it.
North Melbourne on the other hand were faced with the opportunity to take a big stride towards a top eight berth last week and fell three points short in an eventful clash with Essendon.
It wasn't the Roos night it's fair to say!, Grima and Pratt late withdrawals, then a last minute injury to Daniel Wells throwing early planning into chaos.
Combine that with the near twenty minute delay in getting an answer from the AFL on the rules in regards to emergencies and it is not the ideal start to a game by any means.
However despite the loss of key players, and the unusual start, North Melbourne fought their way to a nine point lead half way through the last quarter and probably should have gone on to win the game.
The fact that they didn't could ultimately cost them a spot in the eight, but Sunday's game is a win they may not have bargained on, so to pinch one back this week will put them back in the mix.
However to do that, they will have to overcome a Bulldogs side that has regained it's mojo in the last three weeks.
Big wins over the Blues, Port Adelaide and Fremantle has put them into the top four for the first time in many weeks and once again premiership talk is on the agenda.
The run and spread, the goal kicking depth, the precise ball movement and most importantly the hunger is back for the Bulldogs.
With Mitch Hahn still to return, and more miles in the legs of Brad Johnson between now and the finals things are starting to roll at the right time of the year.
Last time these sides met, the Bulldogs dominated, and it was their ability to create space and destroy North Melbourne on the turnover that was the telling factor.
If the Kangaroos relinquish clearance control this week, like they did against the Bombers, the result will get ugly.
The Bulldogs average ten more stoppage first posessions then their opponents this year which is the best in the competition, and twice as much as the next best discrepancy.
The Kangaroos are conversely ranked 15th for first posession at stoppages and last time they played the Bulldogs, they conceeded 39 points directly from stoppages.
They will need to tighten up this week particularly in defensive fifty, last week the Bombers had 40 uncontested posessions in the forward fifty against North Melbourne, and a similar stat would be fatal.
For the Kangaroos, their midfield is more then capable, it's a case of consistent pressure on opposition stoppage players.
Swallow and Harvey were superb in the second half last week, and Cunningto, Bastinac, Adams, Greenwood and co are capable of making life difficult for the Bulldogs, despite their own midfield group being in outstanding form.
The roos do however have a tendency to change the way they play when facing the better sides. Yes, part of the reason for their poor showing against the competitions best teams is due to them not being quite up to it, but they also go into their shell a bit.
Players don't take the game on to the same extent when they face the top echelon of teams.
When playing positive pro-active football, the Roos look fantastic, but at times they are very hesitant. Slow patient build ups, almost afraid to make mistakes.
The problem with this approach is their skills won't hold up long enough against the best teams to play such a slow and steady style of footy.
North Melbourne are developing very well under Scott in his first season, and consistency will come, it's just a question of time.
However to take the scalp of a high quality in form side will do wonders for them.
Grima, Pratt, Thompson and McMahon will get the jobs on the in form Bulldogs forward line, and Thompson undoubtedly will get Hall.
McIntosh and Goldstein should just edge out Hudson and Roughead in the ruck, largely due to the inexperience of the younger Roughead, but the Bulldogs clearance players appear in too good a form.
As good as North have been at times, Boyd, Cross, Griffen, Cooney, Gilbee etc are far too strong at the moment to succumb in this clash.
If the Roos win, they probably play finals, if they lose, they are very much unlikely to get there, so it is a huge game, and the for the competition's sake, it wouldn't be the worst result by any means.
But the Bulldogs have just snared a top four position and won't be relinquishing that any time soon.
Bulldogs by 28 points
Western Bulldogs 4th - 11-6- 137.98%
North Melbourne 9th - 8-9 - 86.05%
The first glimpse of the Western Bulldogs post Jason Akermanis could not have been more positive. If you were looking for a re-affirmation that the boys from the kennel could still win the flag, you didn't have to wait long to get it.
North Melbourne on the other hand were faced with the opportunity to take a big stride towards a top eight berth last week and fell three points short in an eventful clash with Essendon.
It wasn't the Roos night it's fair to say!, Grima and Pratt late withdrawals, then a last minute injury to Daniel Wells throwing early planning into chaos.
Combine that with the near twenty minute delay in getting an answer from the AFL on the rules in regards to emergencies and it is not the ideal start to a game by any means.
However despite the loss of key players, and the unusual start, North Melbourne fought their way to a nine point lead half way through the last quarter and probably should have gone on to win the game.
The fact that they didn't could ultimately cost them a spot in the eight, but Sunday's game is a win they may not have bargained on, so to pinch one back this week will put them back in the mix.
However to do that, they will have to overcome a Bulldogs side that has regained it's mojo in the last three weeks.
Big wins over the Blues, Port Adelaide and Fremantle has put them into the top four for the first time in many weeks and once again premiership talk is on the agenda.
The run and spread, the goal kicking depth, the precise ball movement and most importantly the hunger is back for the Bulldogs.
With Mitch Hahn still to return, and more miles in the legs of Brad Johnson between now and the finals things are starting to roll at the right time of the year.
Last time these sides met, the Bulldogs dominated, and it was their ability to create space and destroy North Melbourne on the turnover that was the telling factor.
If the Kangaroos relinquish clearance control this week, like they did against the Bombers, the result will get ugly.
The Bulldogs average ten more stoppage first posessions then their opponents this year which is the best in the competition, and twice as much as the next best discrepancy.
The Kangaroos are conversely ranked 15th for first posession at stoppages and last time they played the Bulldogs, they conceeded 39 points directly from stoppages.
They will need to tighten up this week particularly in defensive fifty, last week the Bombers had 40 uncontested posessions in the forward fifty against North Melbourne, and a similar stat would be fatal.
For the Kangaroos, their midfield is more then capable, it's a case of consistent pressure on opposition stoppage players.
Swallow and Harvey were superb in the second half last week, and Cunningto, Bastinac, Adams, Greenwood and co are capable of making life difficult for the Bulldogs, despite their own midfield group being in outstanding form.
The roos do however have a tendency to change the way they play when facing the better sides. Yes, part of the reason for their poor showing against the competitions best teams is due to them not being quite up to it, but they also go into their shell a bit.
Players don't take the game on to the same extent when they face the top echelon of teams.
When playing positive pro-active football, the Roos look fantastic, but at times they are very hesitant. Slow patient build ups, almost afraid to make mistakes.
The problem with this approach is their skills won't hold up long enough against the best teams to play such a slow and steady style of footy.
North Melbourne are developing very well under Scott in his first season, and consistency will come, it's just a question of time.
However to take the scalp of a high quality in form side will do wonders for them.
Grima, Pratt, Thompson and McMahon will get the jobs on the in form Bulldogs forward line, and Thompson undoubtedly will get Hall.
McIntosh and Goldstein should just edge out Hudson and Roughead in the ruck, largely due to the inexperience of the younger Roughead, but the Bulldogs clearance players appear in too good a form.
As good as North have been at times, Boyd, Cross, Griffen, Cooney, Gilbee etc are far too strong at the moment to succumb in this clash.
If the Roos win, they probably play finals, if they lose, they are very much unlikely to get there, so it is a huge game, and the for the competition's sake, it wouldn't be the worst result by any means.
But the Bulldogs have just snared a top four position and won't be relinquishing that any time soon.
Bulldogs by 28 points
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Preview - Richmond vs Adelaide Round 18
Richmond vs Adelaide - MCG - Sunday
Richmond 15th -5-12 - 71.40%
Adelaide 10th - 7-10 - 92.70%
This week pits two of the big improvers in the second half of the season at the MCG for another crucial clash.
Ladder positions are inconsequential right now for the Tigers, but they need to bounce back to form after a dissapointing fortnight.
For the Crows a win here keeps the glimmer of hope for September alive.
Last week they probably did their dash, but with North Melbourne and Sydney also losing, they remain in the hunt. But only just!
Richmond had won five games in six weeks before their dissapointing loss to North Melbourne, but in fairness they had been up for a while, and a let down was to be expected.
Then came last week where the Tigers met the competitions form side Collingwood and had to do it without three of their best clearance players, and two quality key backs out of the side.
It always had the potential to get ugly and that's exactly what happenened. A hefty defeat would have hurt them given the progress they have made this year, so this week it is important that they get the wheels back on the track and keep on building.
It's not so much the wins and losses that matter, but more the continued improvement of the kids, and the structuring up of a highly competitive game plan.
For most of the season, they get a big tick in both boxes, but they would want to avoid a fade out from here and a dissapointing end to the season.
The only write off game between now and the end of the year is St.Kilda so the Tigers have some opportunities to assert themselves going into the off season.
Last time these teams met, both were at 0-6. Adelaide won that day, but the reality is since then the Crows have gone 7-4, and the Tigers have gone 5-6, so it's a vastly different scenario to what it was then, and hence we should see a very good game.
Adelaide pride themselves on being really solid around the stoppages when in form, and also on their ability to structure up really well defensively.
Last week they allowed Port Adelaide far too much freedom, and gave up at least five really soft goals at important stages.
If they are slack in this area, Richmond will hurt them more then Port were able too, and Jack Riewoldt could kick a bag.
Richmond were also smashed in stoppages last week, Collingwood had 43 more contested posessions and looked far too mature for the young Tigers group.
Adelaide won't pose the same level of threat, but Richmond still need to sharpen up.
In the last three weeks the Tigers have conceded 15 marks Inside fifty per game, ranked second last in the competition, so once again this points to a drop off in physical intensity.
This happens with young groups, and with confidence could return quickly, as for the best part of two months, Richmond were one of the competitions best sides in terms of clearances, defensive pressure and contested ball.
It's a matter of re-discovering the balance.
Adelaide have won a clearance from an impressive 41% of stoppages in the past five weeks and Scott Thompson, Bernie Vince and David Mackay have been big factors in that.
The ongoing mystery of Simon Goodwin's return will be a key factor in this game. He was tremendous at his last start against Geelong and will be missed if he isn't back.
Graham Johncock will miss through suspension, Mcleod is still a fortnight away and Phil Davis is no certainty to return, so the Crows defence is missing a few of it's key running cogs.
Nathan Bock and Ben Rutten have both improved in form, although Bock is more of a stopper these days, as opposed to the offensive weapon he was as recently as 2008.
Bock should get Riewoldt as he is a bit quicker. Physically Rutten could handle Jack, but on the lead I think junior Roo would get away from him too much.
Johncock might have got either Nahas or the lively Andrew Collins so he will be missed.
At the other end, the Crows will need more from Tippett who has been poor for two weeks. Moore or McGuane will play on him.
Henderson, Sloane, Porplysia, Dangerfield and Walker are all contributing at present and that will put pressure on the Tigers backs.
Taylor Walker looms as the most dangerous of those and it wouldn't at all surprise if Hardwick sticks to his guns and backs one of his emerging kids for this role.
David Astbury is the man I'm referring too and he has been very impressive this year, expect him to do a job.
Newman should get Henderson and try to hurt him the other way, Edwards or King will take the Porpoise, and Deledio will try to zone off half back, but in all likelihood will get tagged.
Daniel Jackson's return in the middle will be significant as well, and he should tag Scott Thompson who has been excellent of late.
They have missed him greatly in recent weeks, and with Cotchin still out for three, they need the mature physical players in the middle of the ground to carry the load.
Adelaide's mind set will interest me as well. Do they still think they are alive? Or did last week knock the stuffing out of them after a hard fought recovery? It will be interesting to see which Crows side turns up.
Adelaide have dominated Richmond for the last 8 years having won 13 of the past 14 meetings between these clubs by an average of 39 points.
This is another difficult game to tip given the outs in both sides.
Adelaide last week lost several key players prior to the game and it played a large factor in their defeat.
Richmond also were quite undermanned so it might come down to who gets more players back this week.
Two burning questions...Can the Crows cover their injuries and continue to lift after a trying season?
And can the Tigers recapture the form of a fortnight ago?
I think the answer to both is yes, which makes this the hardest game of the round to tip (Despite what I said in the Brisbane v Melbourne preview).
I just somehow think the latter is more likely though, and come Sunday night, the race for the finals will be down to nine.
Richmond by 3 points
Richmond 15th -5-12 - 71.40%
Adelaide 10th - 7-10 - 92.70%
This week pits two of the big improvers in the second half of the season at the MCG for another crucial clash.
Ladder positions are inconsequential right now for the Tigers, but they need to bounce back to form after a dissapointing fortnight.
For the Crows a win here keeps the glimmer of hope for September alive.
Last week they probably did their dash, but with North Melbourne and Sydney also losing, they remain in the hunt. But only just!
Richmond had won five games in six weeks before their dissapointing loss to North Melbourne, but in fairness they had been up for a while, and a let down was to be expected.
Then came last week where the Tigers met the competitions form side Collingwood and had to do it without three of their best clearance players, and two quality key backs out of the side.
It always had the potential to get ugly and that's exactly what happenened. A hefty defeat would have hurt them given the progress they have made this year, so this week it is important that they get the wheels back on the track and keep on building.
It's not so much the wins and losses that matter, but more the continued improvement of the kids, and the structuring up of a highly competitive game plan.
For most of the season, they get a big tick in both boxes, but they would want to avoid a fade out from here and a dissapointing end to the season.
The only write off game between now and the end of the year is St.Kilda so the Tigers have some opportunities to assert themselves going into the off season.
Last time these teams met, both were at 0-6. Adelaide won that day, but the reality is since then the Crows have gone 7-4, and the Tigers have gone 5-6, so it's a vastly different scenario to what it was then, and hence we should see a very good game.
Adelaide pride themselves on being really solid around the stoppages when in form, and also on their ability to structure up really well defensively.
Last week they allowed Port Adelaide far too much freedom, and gave up at least five really soft goals at important stages.
If they are slack in this area, Richmond will hurt them more then Port were able too, and Jack Riewoldt could kick a bag.
Richmond were also smashed in stoppages last week, Collingwood had 43 more contested posessions and looked far too mature for the young Tigers group.
Adelaide won't pose the same level of threat, but Richmond still need to sharpen up.
In the last three weeks the Tigers have conceded 15 marks Inside fifty per game, ranked second last in the competition, so once again this points to a drop off in physical intensity.
This happens with young groups, and with confidence could return quickly, as for the best part of two months, Richmond were one of the competitions best sides in terms of clearances, defensive pressure and contested ball.
It's a matter of re-discovering the balance.
Adelaide have won a clearance from an impressive 41% of stoppages in the past five weeks and Scott Thompson, Bernie Vince and David Mackay have been big factors in that.
The ongoing mystery of Simon Goodwin's return will be a key factor in this game. He was tremendous at his last start against Geelong and will be missed if he isn't back.
Graham Johncock will miss through suspension, Mcleod is still a fortnight away and Phil Davis is no certainty to return, so the Crows defence is missing a few of it's key running cogs.
Nathan Bock and Ben Rutten have both improved in form, although Bock is more of a stopper these days, as opposed to the offensive weapon he was as recently as 2008.
Bock should get Riewoldt as he is a bit quicker. Physically Rutten could handle Jack, but on the lead I think junior Roo would get away from him too much.
Johncock might have got either Nahas or the lively Andrew Collins so he will be missed.
At the other end, the Crows will need more from Tippett who has been poor for two weeks. Moore or McGuane will play on him.
Henderson, Sloane, Porplysia, Dangerfield and Walker are all contributing at present and that will put pressure on the Tigers backs.
Taylor Walker looms as the most dangerous of those and it wouldn't at all surprise if Hardwick sticks to his guns and backs one of his emerging kids for this role.
David Astbury is the man I'm referring too and he has been very impressive this year, expect him to do a job.
Newman should get Henderson and try to hurt him the other way, Edwards or King will take the Porpoise, and Deledio will try to zone off half back, but in all likelihood will get tagged.
Daniel Jackson's return in the middle will be significant as well, and he should tag Scott Thompson who has been excellent of late.
They have missed him greatly in recent weeks, and with Cotchin still out for three, they need the mature physical players in the middle of the ground to carry the load.
Adelaide's mind set will interest me as well. Do they still think they are alive? Or did last week knock the stuffing out of them after a hard fought recovery? It will be interesting to see which Crows side turns up.
Adelaide have dominated Richmond for the last 8 years having won 13 of the past 14 meetings between these clubs by an average of 39 points.
This is another difficult game to tip given the outs in both sides.
Adelaide last week lost several key players prior to the game and it played a large factor in their defeat.
Richmond also were quite undermanned so it might come down to who gets more players back this week.
Two burning questions...Can the Crows cover their injuries and continue to lift after a trying season?
And can the Tigers recapture the form of a fortnight ago?
I think the answer to both is yes, which makes this the hardest game of the round to tip (Despite what I said in the Brisbane v Melbourne preview).
I just somehow think the latter is more likely though, and come Sunday night, the race for the finals will be down to nine.
Richmond by 3 points
Preview - Round 18 Brisbane vs Melbourne
Brisbane vs Melbourne - Gabba - Saturday Night
Brisbane 14th - 5-12- 79.32%
Melbourne 11th - 6-10-1 - 94.21%
Brisbane return to the Gabba this week to take on a Melbourne side that continues to show glimpses of a bright future.
The year has been inconsistant for the Dees, but every now and then you see a sign of what will lie in store for the red and the blue over the next four to six years.
For the Lions, last week I said it was all about effort, and commitment, and on that level they passed against Geelong.
It seems strange to say that when you lose a game by ten goals, but plenty of sides have that fate fall on them at Kardinia Park.
However I just felt at least for the most part, that the Lions showed some commitment and intensity.
Harwood, Banfield, Rockliff, Redden and Cornelius are five kids who can take them places in the future.
Throw in Polkinghorne, Collier, Rich, Mitch Clark and a few other youngsters and the Lions have a platform to redemption.
They won't challenge for a flag for at least three years but they can play finals in 2011.
2010 however, we all agree is a write off, but young players need wins to help re-inforce the message going forward.
It seems ironic that Brisbane topped up to win a flag this year, yet in a season of doom and gloom it is the kids who are offering a shining light.
Plenty of kids offering a shining light at Melbourne too!, last week was the most complete performance by the Dees in a game since their last finals appearance in 2006.
To dismantle a hard nosed disciplined Sydney side is something quite special.
At times Melbourne have produced some poor form this year, and that is too be expected.
The one missing piece is consistency for this side.
Melbourne leading up to the Essendon game had been in poor form, having played well once in eight weeks. But the last three weeks have seen two wins, and a tight loss to Fremantle at Subiaco.
That performance on the road should give them some belief though as they have been notoriously poor travellers.
If they win this game, there is an outside chance they can make the finals. However I'm not convinced that would be a positive.
Essendon last year made the eight ahead of schedule and may be paying the price for that now.
The difference in expectation Melbourne would carry into 2011 if they make the eight this year would be enormous.
Regardless of what happens this year, it is all about future premiership tilts for Melbourne, and whether they finish 8th or 9th this year, that doesn't change.
The only thing that would increase is pressure.
Melbourne will fall short of the eight anyway so it doesn't matter, but that's just a theory I share.
Melbourne must rectify their starts on the road if they are to be any chance. They have led once at quarter time in their last eleven interstate games. If you drop behind the eight ball when playing on the road, you get the crowd involved and more often then not your in trouble.
A couple of key areas for Melbourne include their efficiency Inside Fifty, they are ranked second for scores once inside fifty this year, averaging scores 32% of the times they go forward.
They score heavily from turnovers which helps catch defences off guard. Melbourne are highly effective at going coast to coast, and skill wise, they cut it with the best.
Their clearance work needs some attention, particularly when they play the top sides, as you cannot rely purely on rebound goals.
Melbourne are ranked 15th for clearances this season, but improvement will come there as their kids mature over time.
Brisbane offensively have been ok, similarly to Melbourne, they spread well from contests, and play on frequently. It's an attractive style of footy, however they are poor defensively, conceding more uncontested posessions then any other side in the comp, and there ball use is very poor.
No-one turns it over as much as the Lions, and no-one is less effective going forward then them either.
Jonathan Brown has had a positive impact on that, and expect better from Fev this week who has been very quiet in the past fortnight.
However their last month at home has seen some solid form, with the exception of a Richmond loss they have beaten Collingwood, and pushed St.Kilda hard.
If they can repeat that dose, they could certainly win this game.
Brad Green is hovering around All Australian pace at present, and Patfull seems the logical match up for him.
At the other end, Rivers and Frawley will have the big jobs on Fevola and Brown, Cornelius could be the ace in the pack as well.
Sherman might get a reprieve, he has so much talent but has been poor all season. He must deliver more then he is right now.
Sylvia, Morton, Scully, Davey and co will compete with Black (should return), Rischitelli, Power, Rich etc for the Lions.
Mark Jamar should give the Dees the edge in the square, but Leunberger is continuing to develop and will provide a solid contest.
Melbourne appear to have more upside, and the Lions have hardly beaten anyone in three and a half months, but for some silly reason I cannot shake the feeling that the local boys might get up Saturday night.
Brown looms menacingly, and at this stage of their development, Melbourne remain shaky on the road.
It should be close, and Melbourne will be right in it, but in one of the most intriguing and difficult games of the round......Heads...Tails.....Lions
Brisbane by 2 points
Brisbane 14th - 5-12- 79.32%
Melbourne 11th - 6-10-1 - 94.21%
Brisbane return to the Gabba this week to take on a Melbourne side that continues to show glimpses of a bright future.
The year has been inconsistant for the Dees, but every now and then you see a sign of what will lie in store for the red and the blue over the next four to six years.
For the Lions, last week I said it was all about effort, and commitment, and on that level they passed against Geelong.
It seems strange to say that when you lose a game by ten goals, but plenty of sides have that fate fall on them at Kardinia Park.
However I just felt at least for the most part, that the Lions showed some commitment and intensity.
Harwood, Banfield, Rockliff, Redden and Cornelius are five kids who can take them places in the future.
Throw in Polkinghorne, Collier, Rich, Mitch Clark and a few other youngsters and the Lions have a platform to redemption.
They won't challenge for a flag for at least three years but they can play finals in 2011.
2010 however, we all agree is a write off, but young players need wins to help re-inforce the message going forward.
It seems ironic that Brisbane topped up to win a flag this year, yet in a season of doom and gloom it is the kids who are offering a shining light.
Plenty of kids offering a shining light at Melbourne too!, last week was the most complete performance by the Dees in a game since their last finals appearance in 2006.
To dismantle a hard nosed disciplined Sydney side is something quite special.
At times Melbourne have produced some poor form this year, and that is too be expected.
The one missing piece is consistency for this side.
Melbourne leading up to the Essendon game had been in poor form, having played well once in eight weeks. But the last three weeks have seen two wins, and a tight loss to Fremantle at Subiaco.
That performance on the road should give them some belief though as they have been notoriously poor travellers.
If they win this game, there is an outside chance they can make the finals. However I'm not convinced that would be a positive.
Essendon last year made the eight ahead of schedule and may be paying the price for that now.
The difference in expectation Melbourne would carry into 2011 if they make the eight this year would be enormous.
Regardless of what happens this year, it is all about future premiership tilts for Melbourne, and whether they finish 8th or 9th this year, that doesn't change.
The only thing that would increase is pressure.
Melbourne will fall short of the eight anyway so it doesn't matter, but that's just a theory I share.
Melbourne must rectify their starts on the road if they are to be any chance. They have led once at quarter time in their last eleven interstate games. If you drop behind the eight ball when playing on the road, you get the crowd involved and more often then not your in trouble.
A couple of key areas for Melbourne include their efficiency Inside Fifty, they are ranked second for scores once inside fifty this year, averaging scores 32% of the times they go forward.
They score heavily from turnovers which helps catch defences off guard. Melbourne are highly effective at going coast to coast, and skill wise, they cut it with the best.
Their clearance work needs some attention, particularly when they play the top sides, as you cannot rely purely on rebound goals.
Melbourne are ranked 15th for clearances this season, but improvement will come there as their kids mature over time.
Brisbane offensively have been ok, similarly to Melbourne, they spread well from contests, and play on frequently. It's an attractive style of footy, however they are poor defensively, conceding more uncontested posessions then any other side in the comp, and there ball use is very poor.
No-one turns it over as much as the Lions, and no-one is less effective going forward then them either.
Jonathan Brown has had a positive impact on that, and expect better from Fev this week who has been very quiet in the past fortnight.
However their last month at home has seen some solid form, with the exception of a Richmond loss they have beaten Collingwood, and pushed St.Kilda hard.
If they can repeat that dose, they could certainly win this game.
Brad Green is hovering around All Australian pace at present, and Patfull seems the logical match up for him.
At the other end, Rivers and Frawley will have the big jobs on Fevola and Brown, Cornelius could be the ace in the pack as well.
Sherman might get a reprieve, he has so much talent but has been poor all season. He must deliver more then he is right now.
Sylvia, Morton, Scully, Davey and co will compete with Black (should return), Rischitelli, Power, Rich etc for the Lions.
Mark Jamar should give the Dees the edge in the square, but Leunberger is continuing to develop and will provide a solid contest.
Melbourne appear to have more upside, and the Lions have hardly beaten anyone in three and a half months, but for some silly reason I cannot shake the feeling that the local boys might get up Saturday night.
Brown looms menacingly, and at this stage of their development, Melbourne remain shaky on the road.
It should be close, and Melbourne will be right in it, but in one of the most intriguing and difficult games of the round......Heads...Tails.....Lions
Brisbane by 2 points
Preview - Sydney vs Geelong - Round 18
Sydney vs Geelong - ANZ Stadium - Saturday Night
Sydney - 8th - 9-8 - 105.04%
Geelong - 2nd - 13-4 - 145.44%
Saturday night up in Sydney presents the opportunity for redemption for the Swans who are coming off arguably their worst defeat under Paul Roos.
Unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately, depending on how you look at it, they come up against the might of Geelong under lights at Homebush.
Yes, it is possibly the toughest task in footy, but it's the kind of challenge you want when under pressure.
You have the chance to throw caution to the wind and have a real crack at one of the competitions bench mark sides.
Last year, Geelong won the corresponding fixture by five points and whilst that result may not be convincing, the fact Geelong have won the past seven meetings between the two sides certainly is.
For Geelong, the next five weeks are all about slowly ramping up the intensity before the finals.
This clash, combined with games against Collingwood, the Bulldogs and a plucky Carlton side should help fine tune them for September.
For the Swans it's all about making the eight. This has been a season of great change for Sydney, and Paul Roos should be commended for what he has managed to do with this team in his last season.
He has kept them in the mix for finals, and before last week, they were considered a moral to make the eight one last time under their 2005 premiership coach.
However last weeks result has cast serious doubts. Teams don't open the swans up like that. Eight goals conceded in a quarter twice, and 22 goals in a game.
They face a difficult run home, and with pressure coming from North Melbourne and Adelaide, they must pinch at least two wins to play finals.
Last week Sydney laid just 52 tackles, their lowest tally of the season, and they will need to apply far more pressure to Geelong.
When these two sides met in Round 7, Sydney produced the second fewest tackles they have in a game all year, and conceded 64 Inside fifties, the most they have all season.
Subsequently they lost by 67 points.
If you fail to apply pressure to the Geelong ball carriers, you will get punnished severely.
Geelong give you a chance because they always take you on. You must be very good though, and if you aren't the result's are messy.
Sydney were taken out of their comfort zone last week, and need to settle themselves down when in position.
If you force Sydney to take the game on, invariably you are taking them away from their game plan which is what Melbourne did to them so well.
Geelong are the contrast to Sydney.
Rather then a slow and patient build up, Geelong constantly take the game on and share the footy.
Sydney play on less then any other side, Geelong play on more then any other side. Sydney are the second lowest posession team in the comp. Geelong are the highest.
So one team will try to bottle the game up, the other will try to make it free flowing.
Geelong's disposal efficiency has been at 76% in the last six weeks, ranked number two in the AFL.
They will enjoy the greater space at ANZ Stadium. As a rule, the Swans play the SCG far better then the larger ground accross the harbour.
They have less space to guard at the SCG and can control the tempo of the game and the tempo of their opponents to a far greater degree.
Adam Goodes has been fantastic in the last month, he will probably push through the middle. But if he goes forward, I could see Andrew Mackie taking him.
Mackie has the height and also the engine to go with him. Someone like a Taylor or a Lonergan could be lost in traffic, and someone like Ling would get beaten in the air.
O'Keefe and Mcglynn will get close attention in the front half but much is needed from Jesse White.
He was the big hope in the pre season on the back of a solid finish to last year, but his form has been up and down all year. With no Bradshaw, he has a lot of responsibility in the forward line. He's only young, but his time needs to be soon.
Roberts Thompson and Bolton remain out for the Swans, which increases pressure on Grundy, Malceski and co down back.
Sydney's defence has stood up admirably, but Mooney, Podsiadly, Hawkins, Stokes, Varcoe and Stevie J is as stiff a challenge as they will face.
Last week was an abberation for the Swans in my oppinion, but even though they are much better then that, they aren't in Geelong's class.
Paul Roos will have them up, and the effort will be much more fierce but the Cats are purring along nicely at close to full strength and will put another notch under the belt in the lead up to another exciting finals campaign.
Geelong by 30 points
Sydney - 8th - 9-8 - 105.04%
Geelong - 2nd - 13-4 - 145.44%
Saturday night up in Sydney presents the opportunity for redemption for the Swans who are coming off arguably their worst defeat under Paul Roos.
Unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately, depending on how you look at it, they come up against the might of Geelong under lights at Homebush.
Yes, it is possibly the toughest task in footy, but it's the kind of challenge you want when under pressure.
You have the chance to throw caution to the wind and have a real crack at one of the competitions bench mark sides.
Last year, Geelong won the corresponding fixture by five points and whilst that result may not be convincing, the fact Geelong have won the past seven meetings between the two sides certainly is.
For Geelong, the next five weeks are all about slowly ramping up the intensity before the finals.
This clash, combined with games against Collingwood, the Bulldogs and a plucky Carlton side should help fine tune them for September.
For the Swans it's all about making the eight. This has been a season of great change for Sydney, and Paul Roos should be commended for what he has managed to do with this team in his last season.
He has kept them in the mix for finals, and before last week, they were considered a moral to make the eight one last time under their 2005 premiership coach.
However last weeks result has cast serious doubts. Teams don't open the swans up like that. Eight goals conceded in a quarter twice, and 22 goals in a game.
They face a difficult run home, and with pressure coming from North Melbourne and Adelaide, they must pinch at least two wins to play finals.
Last week Sydney laid just 52 tackles, their lowest tally of the season, and they will need to apply far more pressure to Geelong.
When these two sides met in Round 7, Sydney produced the second fewest tackles they have in a game all year, and conceded 64 Inside fifties, the most they have all season.
Subsequently they lost by 67 points.
If you fail to apply pressure to the Geelong ball carriers, you will get punnished severely.
Geelong give you a chance because they always take you on. You must be very good though, and if you aren't the result's are messy.
Sydney were taken out of their comfort zone last week, and need to settle themselves down when in position.
If you force Sydney to take the game on, invariably you are taking them away from their game plan which is what Melbourne did to them so well.
Geelong are the contrast to Sydney.
Rather then a slow and patient build up, Geelong constantly take the game on and share the footy.
Sydney play on less then any other side, Geelong play on more then any other side. Sydney are the second lowest posession team in the comp. Geelong are the highest.
So one team will try to bottle the game up, the other will try to make it free flowing.
Geelong's disposal efficiency has been at 76% in the last six weeks, ranked number two in the AFL.
They will enjoy the greater space at ANZ Stadium. As a rule, the Swans play the SCG far better then the larger ground accross the harbour.
They have less space to guard at the SCG and can control the tempo of the game and the tempo of their opponents to a far greater degree.
Adam Goodes has been fantastic in the last month, he will probably push through the middle. But if he goes forward, I could see Andrew Mackie taking him.
Mackie has the height and also the engine to go with him. Someone like a Taylor or a Lonergan could be lost in traffic, and someone like Ling would get beaten in the air.
O'Keefe and Mcglynn will get close attention in the front half but much is needed from Jesse White.
He was the big hope in the pre season on the back of a solid finish to last year, but his form has been up and down all year. With no Bradshaw, he has a lot of responsibility in the forward line. He's only young, but his time needs to be soon.
Roberts Thompson and Bolton remain out for the Swans, which increases pressure on Grundy, Malceski and co down back.
Sydney's defence has stood up admirably, but Mooney, Podsiadly, Hawkins, Stokes, Varcoe and Stevie J is as stiff a challenge as they will face.
Last week was an abberation for the Swans in my oppinion, but even though they are much better then that, they aren't in Geelong's class.
Paul Roos will have them up, and the effort will be much more fierce but the Cats are purring along nicely at close to full strength and will put another notch under the belt in the lead up to another exciting finals campaign.
Geelong by 30 points
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Preview - Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn Round 18
Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn - Aami Stadium - Saturday
Port Adelaide - 13th - 6-11 - 79.91%
Hawthorn - 6th - 9-7-1 - 107.71%
Saturday afternoon football at Aami Stadium provides an interesting contest this week.
Hawthorn continued their resurgence last week whilst Port Adelaide produced a timely showdown victory to open the account for Matthew Primus and break the worst drought in the clubs history.
Hawthorn are in many ways experiencing the swings and roundabouts of footy.
After their slow start to the season, they were on the right end of several close games that got them back in the hunt. Tight wins over Richmond, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn and Essendon got them up and firing again.
But with top four in their sites they have gone down by two points in a see sawing affair with Geelong, and played out a thrilling draw with St.Kilda when Cyril Rioli had the game in his hands prior to a costly interchange infringement.
You win some, you lose some as they say, but the results don't cloud the facts when it comes to the Hawks. And the facts are that the hunger and drive is back in this Hawthorn team.
Their defence may be young, but they are getting the job done, the drive out of the midfield has been enormous, and the forward line is functioning well again with both Franklin and it appears Roughead in good form again.
Cyril Rioli has been that X factor. His pace and flair has been a huge boost for the Hawks since they injected it into the midfield.
Hawthorn's pressure skills have improved dramatically as well. These stats indicate usually when a side is up and about or not, and the Hawks have gone from bottom four in spoils, tackles and inside fifties conceded to top four in all of those stats.
They are also sharing the footy. Two of their last three matches have seen them have the third and fifth most disposals they have ever recorded in a game.
Lewis, Hodge, Mitchell, Sewell, Rioli, Bateman, Young and Ellis are all in good form and the run and spread of the Hawks in the glory days of 2008 are back.
They are more shaky in defence then they were back then, but that is a work in progress. Stratton looks the goods, Gilham and Gibson are solid and Murphy has improved a lot on last year.
However last week Riewoldt and Koschitzke alone took 9 marks Inside Fifty between them, but the plus side is, Port's attacking combination doesn't have two quality talls.
Jay Schulz is ok, but just ok, and the rest of their goals tend to come from Ebert, Westhoff, Grey, Motlop etc, who are mediums to smalls.
Hawthorn should have the arsenal to deal with that forward line.
Fatigue could be a factor also, Port are coming off a trip to Darwin, followed by the emotion of a showdown where they appeared to treat it as their Grand Final so the response this week will be interesting.
Warren Tredrea has provided some emotional impetus during the week with his retirement and Port Adelaide should be very keen to pay him the respect he deserves.
255 games, 549 goals, best and fairests, captain of a premiership team, it's an impressive resume for a man who made his debut in the Power's second ever game.
He has been part of the furniture since day one, and will go down probably as the club's greatest ever player.
He will be given a lap of honour this weekend and that will no doubt lift the Power.
However much like the Choco announcement from three weeks ago it will most likely be short lived.
When their confidence is up, Port are ok, and it should be up now, but against the tough disciplined sides they get worked over and found out pretty quickly, and much like the Collingwood game, expect Hawthorn to grind them into the ground eventually.
Hawthorn's rolling zone is starting to tie teams up again, and the way to counter is much the same as when you play St.Kilda, you need to use pace and precision to run the ball through the zone and try to get over the back of the defensive press and isolate the opposition defenders one on one.
Port Adelaide are the worst team at turning rebound 50's into Inside fifties, they are the worst team at turning point kick ins into inside fifties (14%) and the lowest scoring team in the competition since Round 7.
So the recipe does not smell all that flash for them.
Hawthorn historically don't enjoy Aami Stadium all that much, losing nine of their past eleven at the venue, but generally circumstances and form have been factors in that. Both of those on this occasion point to Hawthorn.
Win this, and the glimmer of top four remains alive, lose it, and the hardest road of all to a flag appears the likely outcome.
Hawthorn will have too much midfield run, and too much offensive fire power to drop this one, and will take their 10th win of the season.
Hawthorn by 32 points.
Port Adelaide - 13th - 6-11 - 79.91%
Hawthorn - 6th - 9-7-1 - 107.71%
Saturday afternoon football at Aami Stadium provides an interesting contest this week.
Hawthorn continued their resurgence last week whilst Port Adelaide produced a timely showdown victory to open the account for Matthew Primus and break the worst drought in the clubs history.
Hawthorn are in many ways experiencing the swings and roundabouts of footy.
After their slow start to the season, they were on the right end of several close games that got them back in the hunt. Tight wins over Richmond, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn and Essendon got them up and firing again.
But with top four in their sites they have gone down by two points in a see sawing affair with Geelong, and played out a thrilling draw with St.Kilda when Cyril Rioli had the game in his hands prior to a costly interchange infringement.
You win some, you lose some as they say, but the results don't cloud the facts when it comes to the Hawks. And the facts are that the hunger and drive is back in this Hawthorn team.
Their defence may be young, but they are getting the job done, the drive out of the midfield has been enormous, and the forward line is functioning well again with both Franklin and it appears Roughead in good form again.
Cyril Rioli has been that X factor. His pace and flair has been a huge boost for the Hawks since they injected it into the midfield.
Hawthorn's pressure skills have improved dramatically as well. These stats indicate usually when a side is up and about or not, and the Hawks have gone from bottom four in spoils, tackles and inside fifties conceded to top four in all of those stats.
They are also sharing the footy. Two of their last three matches have seen them have the third and fifth most disposals they have ever recorded in a game.
Lewis, Hodge, Mitchell, Sewell, Rioli, Bateman, Young and Ellis are all in good form and the run and spread of the Hawks in the glory days of 2008 are back.
They are more shaky in defence then they were back then, but that is a work in progress. Stratton looks the goods, Gilham and Gibson are solid and Murphy has improved a lot on last year.
However last week Riewoldt and Koschitzke alone took 9 marks Inside Fifty between them, but the plus side is, Port's attacking combination doesn't have two quality talls.
Jay Schulz is ok, but just ok, and the rest of their goals tend to come from Ebert, Westhoff, Grey, Motlop etc, who are mediums to smalls.
Hawthorn should have the arsenal to deal with that forward line.
Fatigue could be a factor also, Port are coming off a trip to Darwin, followed by the emotion of a showdown where they appeared to treat it as their Grand Final so the response this week will be interesting.
Warren Tredrea has provided some emotional impetus during the week with his retirement and Port Adelaide should be very keen to pay him the respect he deserves.
255 games, 549 goals, best and fairests, captain of a premiership team, it's an impressive resume for a man who made his debut in the Power's second ever game.
He has been part of the furniture since day one, and will go down probably as the club's greatest ever player.
He will be given a lap of honour this weekend and that will no doubt lift the Power.
However much like the Choco announcement from three weeks ago it will most likely be short lived.
When their confidence is up, Port are ok, and it should be up now, but against the tough disciplined sides they get worked over and found out pretty quickly, and much like the Collingwood game, expect Hawthorn to grind them into the ground eventually.
Hawthorn's rolling zone is starting to tie teams up again, and the way to counter is much the same as when you play St.Kilda, you need to use pace and precision to run the ball through the zone and try to get over the back of the defensive press and isolate the opposition defenders one on one.
Port Adelaide are the worst team at turning rebound 50's into Inside fifties, they are the worst team at turning point kick ins into inside fifties (14%) and the lowest scoring team in the competition since Round 7.
So the recipe does not smell all that flash for them.
Hawthorn historically don't enjoy Aami Stadium all that much, losing nine of their past eleven at the venue, but generally circumstances and form have been factors in that. Both of those on this occasion point to Hawthorn.
Win this, and the glimmer of top four remains alive, lose it, and the hardest road of all to a flag appears the likely outcome.
Hawthorn will have too much midfield run, and too much offensive fire power to drop this one, and will take their 10th win of the season.
Hawthorn by 32 points.
Preview Collingwood vs Carlton Round 18
Collingwood vs Carlton -MCG - Saturday
Collingwood 1st - 13-3-1 - 140.14%
Carlton 7th - 9-8 - 105.97%
The Saturday Afternoon blockbusters roll on this week with arguably the fiercest rivals of all locking horns at the MCG.
Crowds of 75,000, 81,000 and 67,000 have flocked to the home of footy in the last three weeks and expect this one to hover around the high 80's as the competitions pace setters take on their most hated foe who bounced back to form with a solid come from behind win last week.
Collingwood treated Richmond with contempt last saturday with another polished performance.
Another 400 plus disposals, another nine goal kickers. Everything is running very smoothly for the Black and White army at present.
The St.Kilda win was magical, and the Richmond win was satisfying, but nothing would please Collingwood fans more then to defeat Carlton this week, and in the process put the old dark navy blue's finals chances in jeopardy.
For Carlton, last weekend was significant. At half time against the Eagles, season 2010 was going down the toilet with Carlton 26 points down, and staring at five losses in six games.
However an 11 goal to three second half was a good launching point into the last five weeks, which contains many tough games.
To please Blues fans further, North Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide and Hawthorn all failed to record victories which helped Carlton entrench themselves in 7th position.
All things being equal they should go on and play finals. Victory on Saturday would assure it!
But that is going to be a very difficult task. Carlton generally lift against the Pies, but when the two teams met earlier this year, Collingwood got hold of them in a big way with a 53 point win.
This came a week after Carlton had demolished St.Kilda so they were in some very good form at the time.
Westcoast have played both St.Kilda and the Bulldogs into form this year, so Carlton will be hoping they have done the same for them.
After Collingwood, the Blues also face Geelong and Fremantle (away) between now and September so that's a tough lead in.
Carlton used the space well at Subiaco last week, and their swarm of midfielders found some form and developed some good link work through and around the ground. The run and carry that serves them so well when up and about was evident again.
They will need to take the game on against the Pies who set up so well defensively through the corridor.
Carlton leading into last week had scored from just 17% of forward entries in the past month, ranked last.
Collingwood's defence is simply too well organised to allow the Blues to get away with suck a lack of efficiency.
Another area of concern for Carlton has been ball use. Usually a fairly skillful side, they have dropped away. Even last week they weren't all that precise.
This could be a major problem as Collingwood are number one in the AFL at scoring from turnovers.
Most of these stats indicate a bit of Jekyl and Hyde when it comes to Carlton and this is true. They generally either smash or get smashed.
Carlton have conceded 69 points a game this year when they have won, but 112 a game when they lose which is by a long way the biggest discrepency in the competition.
Collingwood's strength remains their evenness accross the board. It is hard to look at their side and pinpoint a weakness.
They have used 33 players this season which is remarkable for a top side. They are numbers conducive with a wooden spoon side. What it does though is demonstrate how deep Collingwood's list is.
They have soldiers at the ready to come in and fill any role required and it's hard not to respect the way Mick Malthouse has moulded this list over the last few years.
Didak, Thomas, Sidebottom, Beams and co are rotating through the middle and pushing forward, Leigh Brown has been enormous, and the value of Chris Dawes continues to show.
This week Travis Cloke returns, as does Heath Shaw so there are some major selection headaches for the Pies coaching staff.
You would say Lockyer may be the one to lose out for Shaw, or perhaps young Blair who has been good, but might need a spell.
Cloke would probably replace McAffer which would be cruel for the young Magpie who has had an excellent few weeks.
Collingwood are the hardest side to tackle, they have been tackled less then anyone else, and have been caught holding the ball far less then any other side.
This shows the value of their rotations, keeping bodies fresh, but also the physical maturity of the side.
Carlton, like most sides, will need to drag Collingwood back into the corridor if they are to beat them.
This takes them out of their comfort zone, and if you apply pressure and force them into error, you can get them with quick counter attacks.
Conversely, the Pies quest to victory sits with pressuring the Carlton ball carriers and denying Judd, Murphy and Simpson in particular space to use the footy.
Their forward line is lively, but needs a good food supply without some real quality talls.
I cannot see Carlton generating enough quality ball against the wealth of Collingwood stoppage players to kick a winning score in this one.
Ben Reid should get Lachie Henderson, Toovey will take Betts and at the other end, Bower should get Cloke, and Jamison will take Dawes.
Andrew Walker might run with Didak if he plays forward, or otherwise perhaps a resting onballer in the front half.
The Blues are always a chance when they face the old foe, and that will no doubt be on the minds of all Pies fans.
But come Saturday night they will be toasting their 14th win of the season, and daring to dream once more about what September just might have on the menu.
Collingwood by 27 points
Collingwood 1st - 13-3-1 - 140.14%
Carlton 7th - 9-8 - 105.97%
The Saturday Afternoon blockbusters roll on this week with arguably the fiercest rivals of all locking horns at the MCG.
Crowds of 75,000, 81,000 and 67,000 have flocked to the home of footy in the last three weeks and expect this one to hover around the high 80's as the competitions pace setters take on their most hated foe who bounced back to form with a solid come from behind win last week.
Collingwood treated Richmond with contempt last saturday with another polished performance.
Another 400 plus disposals, another nine goal kickers. Everything is running very smoothly for the Black and White army at present.
The St.Kilda win was magical, and the Richmond win was satisfying, but nothing would please Collingwood fans more then to defeat Carlton this week, and in the process put the old dark navy blue's finals chances in jeopardy.
For Carlton, last weekend was significant. At half time against the Eagles, season 2010 was going down the toilet with Carlton 26 points down, and staring at five losses in six games.
However an 11 goal to three second half was a good launching point into the last five weeks, which contains many tough games.
To please Blues fans further, North Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide and Hawthorn all failed to record victories which helped Carlton entrench themselves in 7th position.
All things being equal they should go on and play finals. Victory on Saturday would assure it!
But that is going to be a very difficult task. Carlton generally lift against the Pies, but when the two teams met earlier this year, Collingwood got hold of them in a big way with a 53 point win.
This came a week after Carlton had demolished St.Kilda so they were in some very good form at the time.
Westcoast have played both St.Kilda and the Bulldogs into form this year, so Carlton will be hoping they have done the same for them.
After Collingwood, the Blues also face Geelong and Fremantle (away) between now and September so that's a tough lead in.
Carlton used the space well at Subiaco last week, and their swarm of midfielders found some form and developed some good link work through and around the ground. The run and carry that serves them so well when up and about was evident again.
They will need to take the game on against the Pies who set up so well defensively through the corridor.
Carlton leading into last week had scored from just 17% of forward entries in the past month, ranked last.
Collingwood's defence is simply too well organised to allow the Blues to get away with suck a lack of efficiency.
Another area of concern for Carlton has been ball use. Usually a fairly skillful side, they have dropped away. Even last week they weren't all that precise.
This could be a major problem as Collingwood are number one in the AFL at scoring from turnovers.
Most of these stats indicate a bit of Jekyl and Hyde when it comes to Carlton and this is true. They generally either smash or get smashed.
Carlton have conceded 69 points a game this year when they have won, but 112 a game when they lose which is by a long way the biggest discrepency in the competition.
Collingwood's strength remains their evenness accross the board. It is hard to look at their side and pinpoint a weakness.
They have used 33 players this season which is remarkable for a top side. They are numbers conducive with a wooden spoon side. What it does though is demonstrate how deep Collingwood's list is.
They have soldiers at the ready to come in and fill any role required and it's hard not to respect the way Mick Malthouse has moulded this list over the last few years.
Didak, Thomas, Sidebottom, Beams and co are rotating through the middle and pushing forward, Leigh Brown has been enormous, and the value of Chris Dawes continues to show.
This week Travis Cloke returns, as does Heath Shaw so there are some major selection headaches for the Pies coaching staff.
You would say Lockyer may be the one to lose out for Shaw, or perhaps young Blair who has been good, but might need a spell.
Cloke would probably replace McAffer which would be cruel for the young Magpie who has had an excellent few weeks.
Collingwood are the hardest side to tackle, they have been tackled less then anyone else, and have been caught holding the ball far less then any other side.
This shows the value of their rotations, keeping bodies fresh, but also the physical maturity of the side.
Carlton, like most sides, will need to drag Collingwood back into the corridor if they are to beat them.
This takes them out of their comfort zone, and if you apply pressure and force them into error, you can get them with quick counter attacks.
Conversely, the Pies quest to victory sits with pressuring the Carlton ball carriers and denying Judd, Murphy and Simpson in particular space to use the footy.
Their forward line is lively, but needs a good food supply without some real quality talls.
I cannot see Carlton generating enough quality ball against the wealth of Collingwood stoppage players to kick a winning score in this one.
Ben Reid should get Lachie Henderson, Toovey will take Betts and at the other end, Bower should get Cloke, and Jamison will take Dawes.
Andrew Walker might run with Didak if he plays forward, or otherwise perhaps a resting onballer in the front half.
The Blues are always a chance when they face the old foe, and that will no doubt be on the minds of all Pies fans.
But come Saturday night they will be toasting their 14th win of the season, and daring to dream once more about what September just might have on the menu.
Collingwood by 27 points
Preview Essendon vs St.Kilda Round 18
Essendon vs St.Kilda Etihad Stadium - Friday Night
Essendon 12th - 6-11 - 84.84%
St.Kilda 3rd - 12-4-1 - 119.77%
After last week's drama filled draw St.Kilda once again find themselves under the Friday Night lights at Etihad Stadium.
Essendon had a drama filled week of their own with a tense three point win over the Kangaroos in a confidence boosting win for the under seige group.
That result would have done wonders for the Essendon side who had lost their previous six matches, and given recent results against the Saints, they will enter this clash with a bit of confidence that an upset is not entirely out of the question.
David Hille is set to return as well which is a nice boost for the group, and he is far and away the most important player on their list right now.
Despite Essendon's good record, it is still an enormous task confronting them, especially given Jason Winderlich will be missing this week and doubts remain on star onballer Jobe Watson after he hurt a calf in last week's win.
Winderlich has been in outstanding form in the past two months but the Thorpy boy had surgery during the week on a hand injury, but is confident he will miss just the one game.
Watson had 38 touches last week and was inspirational in the middle for the Dons as they snapped their losing streak.
If both of these guys miss, it puts a ton of pressure on the likes of Stanton, Howlett, Colyer and co to carry the can in the middle.
People need to remember just how young this Essendon side is. Gumbleton, Hardingham, Hurley, Colyer, Melksham and Howlett all look the goods, and even Ryder, Pears and Monfries are relatively young.
Essendon over achieved a touch by making the eight last year, and playing finals on the back of ten wins flatters you.
They are paying the price for that a bit now, but the future doesn't look too bad, and they need to persevere, and that includes keeping faith in Matthew Knights.
The dons have exploited St.Kilda by isolating and releasing their quicker players and punching through the Saints full ground press with pace and precise ball movement.
Essendon tend to exploit teams on the turnover as well as anyone in the comp when playing well, and they scored nine of their fourteen goals against the Saints back in Round 8 exactly that way.
For St.Kilda, seven wins in a row was what they dished up prior to the Collingwood shocker which raised a few eyebrows, however they would have been pleased with they way they responded against Hawthorn, even if they were a touch fortunate to get the two points.
Dal Santo and Montagna both spent time off the ground injured, and Gilbert was well held but they managed to grind their way to a result which was pleasing in a way for them.
St.Kilda over recent times have been taking control of the uncontested ball, averaging 83 more uncontested posessions then their opponents over their past six matches at Etihad Stadium.
This suggests they are controlling the tempo of games and denying their opponents the opportunity to gain momentum, which tends to be the way they do things.
And they will need to control this stat to defeat Essendon, as they above evidence on the Bombers would demonstrate.
Essendon are a full throttle side who kick backwards less then anyone else, but also concede more marks inside defensive fifty then any other side.
This shows that they can be dynamic but at the same time can be opened up if they don't quite get it right.
They have conceded more points then any other side and with Tayte Pears and Henry Slattery out they remain vulnerable down back.
St.Kilda need to exploit some of Essendon's losses and take control around the clearances and get the ball moving forward quickly.
Schneider and Milne kicked six goals between them last week, and have been consistent goal scorers over the last three years against the Bombers.
Nick Riewoldt showed the best signs to date that he is returning to peak form with a good running and marking display last week, and even Kozi showed some signs that the wheel might be turning.
For the Saints, their finals campaign hinges on these blokes being up and firing, so it's important it continues.
Essendon have won the past two against St.Kilda, but the Saints are going a fair bit better then they were in Round 8.
Conversely the Bombers are probably faring about 25% worse then they were at that stage.
This game definitely fits into the danger game category, but St.Kilda should be a bit too mature around the stoppages and will get the job done.
All the indicators suggest it should be a comfortable St.Kilda victory over the plucky Bombers.
St.Kilda by 29 points.
Essendon 12th - 6-11 - 84.84%
St.Kilda 3rd - 12-4-1 - 119.77%
After last week's drama filled draw St.Kilda once again find themselves under the Friday Night lights at Etihad Stadium.
Essendon had a drama filled week of their own with a tense three point win over the Kangaroos in a confidence boosting win for the under seige group.
That result would have done wonders for the Essendon side who had lost their previous six matches, and given recent results against the Saints, they will enter this clash with a bit of confidence that an upset is not entirely out of the question.
David Hille is set to return as well which is a nice boost for the group, and he is far and away the most important player on their list right now.
Despite Essendon's good record, it is still an enormous task confronting them, especially given Jason Winderlich will be missing this week and doubts remain on star onballer Jobe Watson after he hurt a calf in last week's win.
Winderlich has been in outstanding form in the past two months but the Thorpy boy had surgery during the week on a hand injury, but is confident he will miss just the one game.
Watson had 38 touches last week and was inspirational in the middle for the Dons as they snapped their losing streak.
If both of these guys miss, it puts a ton of pressure on the likes of Stanton, Howlett, Colyer and co to carry the can in the middle.
People need to remember just how young this Essendon side is. Gumbleton, Hardingham, Hurley, Colyer, Melksham and Howlett all look the goods, and even Ryder, Pears and Monfries are relatively young.
Essendon over achieved a touch by making the eight last year, and playing finals on the back of ten wins flatters you.
They are paying the price for that a bit now, but the future doesn't look too bad, and they need to persevere, and that includes keeping faith in Matthew Knights.
The dons have exploited St.Kilda by isolating and releasing their quicker players and punching through the Saints full ground press with pace and precise ball movement.
Essendon tend to exploit teams on the turnover as well as anyone in the comp when playing well, and they scored nine of their fourteen goals against the Saints back in Round 8 exactly that way.
For St.Kilda, seven wins in a row was what they dished up prior to the Collingwood shocker which raised a few eyebrows, however they would have been pleased with they way they responded against Hawthorn, even if they were a touch fortunate to get the two points.
Dal Santo and Montagna both spent time off the ground injured, and Gilbert was well held but they managed to grind their way to a result which was pleasing in a way for them.
St.Kilda over recent times have been taking control of the uncontested ball, averaging 83 more uncontested posessions then their opponents over their past six matches at Etihad Stadium.
This suggests they are controlling the tempo of games and denying their opponents the opportunity to gain momentum, which tends to be the way they do things.
And they will need to control this stat to defeat Essendon, as they above evidence on the Bombers would demonstrate.
Essendon are a full throttle side who kick backwards less then anyone else, but also concede more marks inside defensive fifty then any other side.
This shows that they can be dynamic but at the same time can be opened up if they don't quite get it right.
They have conceded more points then any other side and with Tayte Pears and Henry Slattery out they remain vulnerable down back.
St.Kilda need to exploit some of Essendon's losses and take control around the clearances and get the ball moving forward quickly.
Schneider and Milne kicked six goals between them last week, and have been consistent goal scorers over the last three years against the Bombers.
Nick Riewoldt showed the best signs to date that he is returning to peak form with a good running and marking display last week, and even Kozi showed some signs that the wheel might be turning.
For the Saints, their finals campaign hinges on these blokes being up and firing, so it's important it continues.
Essendon have won the past two against St.Kilda, but the Saints are going a fair bit better then they were in Round 8.
Conversely the Bombers are probably faring about 25% worse then they were at that stage.
This game definitely fits into the danger game category, but St.Kilda should be a bit too mature around the stoppages and will get the job done.
All the indicators suggest it should be a comfortable St.Kilda victory over the plucky Bombers.
St.Kilda by 29 points.
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