Port Adelaide vs Adelaide - Aami Stadium- Sunday
Port Adelaide - 14th - 5-11 - 77.81%
Adelaide - 10th - 7-9 - 93.58%
Showdown 29 will see the two South Australian sides lock horns with neither having enjoyed the finest seasons of their respective histories.
The Crows however have ressurected their fortunes and could possibly still play finals in 2010 which would be a remarkable achievement given they were 0-6 at one stage.
Port Adelaide on the other hand have lost their past nine games, changed their coach, and appear set for a long and arduous rebuild over the next few years.
Last week the Crows brought down the might of Geelong to win their fourth game in a row and move to 10th on the table, just one win outside the eight.
They still need to face Collingwood, the Bulldogs and St.Kilda in the run home, as well as a rejuvenated Richmond at the MCG so the road home is difficult, but if they win this their is plenty of reason for optimism.
The Blues appear to be staggering, and the crows will at least have their destiny in their own hands again.
Port Adelaide have lost Salopek for the year in another frustrating twist on a season that promised so much when the siren sounded at Etihad Stadium in Round 7.
At that stage Port Adelaide sat fifth on the table with a 5-2 record, but it has all fallen apart since then.
And last week best summed up their season. They kicked five goals in a row against the Bulldogs to take control of the game before meekly surrendering.
Three sloppy free kicks in a row to start the second term gifted goals to the Bulldogs and the momentum swang accordingly.
Port would kick just two more goals for the game in a poor display of resistance so common with this club of late.
Adelaide's midfield group is in great form, but it is their defensive efforts that deserve a big mention from last weeks game.
The Crows were so good defensively back when they were a force in 05 and 06 but this was a super display by the whole Adelaide back six reminiscent of them at their best.
Johncock, Doughty, Stevens, Davis and Goodwin all beat their men last week and produced more spoils then I can ever remember in a game.
Combine this with the form through the middle of Mackay, Van Berlo, Vince and co, and the confident form of Walker, Dangerfield and Tippett and the mojo is back at the Crows!
If you barrack for Adelaide, this year has seen you say goodbye to some of the club's finest servants.
But you must now rest easy knowing the future seems to be in good hands.
Port key position wise are ok down back, but they will struggle to control the host of creative smaller players the crows have down there. Walker and Dangerfield certainly, but also Henderson and young Jaensch who have both been great in recent weeks.
Josh Carr has hung up the boots for the Power, he has been a wonderful player, but probably went on at least one year too long.
Chad Cornes returns in what could be the last six weeks of his career, and he tends to lift in the showdowns so expect a good showing from him.
Port are the worst tackling team in the comp, and also over the last eight weeks the lowest scoring.
Adelaide's spread of runners will exploit this, and their in form defence will compound Port's woes.
The Crows are running on confidence, and are playing too well accross the board. A disciplined well coached group will take their fifth win in a row, and keep the finals window wide open.
Adelaide by 37 points
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Preview - Melbourne vs Sydney Round 17
Melbourne vs Sydney - MCG - Sunday
Melbourne - 11th - 5-10-1 - 88.84%
Sydney - 6th - 9-7 - 111.28%
Melbourne and Sydney at the MCG on Sunday is one of the more intriguing games of the round.
The Swans can still finish top four, but first of all must shore up a spot in the eight, whilst the Dees can still win the wooden spoon if they stumble in the last six weeks.
However in isolation there doesn't appear to be an enormous chasm between the two sides. Experience and consistency being the notable factors.
Last week's loss to Fremantle pretty much summed up Melbourne's season. Dissapointing start, excellent recovery, but ultimately just not quite there.
So many games have played out that way for the Demons this year and last Sunday was another game they had chances to win had they been able to maintain composure.
Sydney are a side that rarely drops it's guard and opens the door, so the Dees cannot afford any slow starts this week.
Melbourne have led at quarter time just once since Round 9 and have trailed by an average of 21 points at quarter time over that period.
The Dees have only lost six second halves this year which demonstrates that they are leaving themselves too much to do after their poor starts.
Sydney, with the exception of three weeks ago against Richmond, are possibly the hardest club to overhaul when you concede a deficit as they are the masters of controlling the tempo of a game.
They also appear to have regained their mojo a bit, and are starting to get a settled line up so it will be a tough day for the exciting, yet inconsistent Melbourne side.
The Swans defensively are still missing Bolton and Lew Bob Tom, but Grundy, Mattner, Malceski, Shaw and Richards still provide a good solid mix in defence against the small-medium Melbourne forward line with Bate, Green, Watts and Jurrah.
Grundy will take Watts, Richards should get Green and Mattner might get first dibs on Bate.
Liam Jurrah is still a difficult match up and his form has been encouraging in his first two games back.
Sydney's forward line is a touch unconvential as well relying on a lot of midfield goals, on top of contributions from McGlynn and O'Keefe.
Adam Goodes return to the midfield a fortnight ago has been huge with his form returning to it's very best.
Moloney normally gets the lock down roles for Melbourne, but he won't have the height to go with Goodes in the air when he pushes forward. Maybe a Cale Morton could perhaps be an option given he played a good game last week and reads the play quite well.
Kirk, Bolton, Kennedy and McVeigh have the big bodies in the middle to work over Melbourne, who are still missing James McDonald.
The Dees are the worst centre bounce team in the comp averaging a clearance just 39% of the time.
You can't afford to relinquish posession easily against the Swans because it allows them to play the game on their own terms.
Melbourne rely on fast breaks, run and spread and procise forward entries. They only go Inside the arc about 46 times a game which is the worst in the AFL, but they have a high efficiency once inside.
Sydney are the opposite. They rely on patient build ups, strong zoning structures and an attacking half back line led by Malceski, Kennelly and Shaw.
These are their pull the trigger players. Sydney play on less then any other side in the comp, and will only go when the ball is in the hands of the right players, and the moment is right.
Sydney's style should frustrate the Demons who won't be able to generate enough run through the middle to punch through Sydney's defence given the pressure and zoning Sydney apply through the middle.
Expect a grinding affair for much of the afternoon, without a heap of goals kicked. But Sydney are on the way to another september campaign in Paul Roos's swansong and they will have enough in the bank to confine the Dees to their 11th loss of the season.
Sydney by 21 points.
Melbourne - 11th - 5-10-1 - 88.84%
Sydney - 6th - 9-7 - 111.28%
Melbourne and Sydney at the MCG on Sunday is one of the more intriguing games of the round.
The Swans can still finish top four, but first of all must shore up a spot in the eight, whilst the Dees can still win the wooden spoon if they stumble in the last six weeks.
However in isolation there doesn't appear to be an enormous chasm between the two sides. Experience and consistency being the notable factors.
Last week's loss to Fremantle pretty much summed up Melbourne's season. Dissapointing start, excellent recovery, but ultimately just not quite there.
So many games have played out that way for the Demons this year and last Sunday was another game they had chances to win had they been able to maintain composure.
Sydney are a side that rarely drops it's guard and opens the door, so the Dees cannot afford any slow starts this week.
Melbourne have led at quarter time just once since Round 9 and have trailed by an average of 21 points at quarter time over that period.
The Dees have only lost six second halves this year which demonstrates that they are leaving themselves too much to do after their poor starts.
Sydney, with the exception of three weeks ago against Richmond, are possibly the hardest club to overhaul when you concede a deficit as they are the masters of controlling the tempo of a game.
They also appear to have regained their mojo a bit, and are starting to get a settled line up so it will be a tough day for the exciting, yet inconsistent Melbourne side.
The Swans defensively are still missing Bolton and Lew Bob Tom, but Grundy, Mattner, Malceski, Shaw and Richards still provide a good solid mix in defence against the small-medium Melbourne forward line with Bate, Green, Watts and Jurrah.
Grundy will take Watts, Richards should get Green and Mattner might get first dibs on Bate.
Liam Jurrah is still a difficult match up and his form has been encouraging in his first two games back.
Sydney's forward line is a touch unconvential as well relying on a lot of midfield goals, on top of contributions from McGlynn and O'Keefe.
Adam Goodes return to the midfield a fortnight ago has been huge with his form returning to it's very best.
Moloney normally gets the lock down roles for Melbourne, but he won't have the height to go with Goodes in the air when he pushes forward. Maybe a Cale Morton could perhaps be an option given he played a good game last week and reads the play quite well.
Kirk, Bolton, Kennedy and McVeigh have the big bodies in the middle to work over Melbourne, who are still missing James McDonald.
The Dees are the worst centre bounce team in the comp averaging a clearance just 39% of the time.
You can't afford to relinquish posession easily against the Swans because it allows them to play the game on their own terms.
Melbourne rely on fast breaks, run and spread and procise forward entries. They only go Inside the arc about 46 times a game which is the worst in the AFL, but they have a high efficiency once inside.
Sydney are the opposite. They rely on patient build ups, strong zoning structures and an attacking half back line led by Malceski, Kennelly and Shaw.
These are their pull the trigger players. Sydney play on less then any other side in the comp, and will only go when the ball is in the hands of the right players, and the moment is right.
Sydney's style should frustrate the Demons who won't be able to generate enough run through the middle to punch through Sydney's defence given the pressure and zoning Sydney apply through the middle.
Expect a grinding affair for much of the afternoon, without a heap of goals kicked. But Sydney are on the way to another september campaign in Paul Roos's swansong and they will have enough in the bank to confine the Dees to their 11th loss of the season.
Sydney by 21 points.
Preview - Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle -Round 17
Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle - Etihad Stadium - Sunday
Western Bulldogs - 5th - 10-6- 133.47%
Fremantle -4th - 11-5 - 118.87%
Whoever wins this game should go on to finish the season in fourth place and earn the prescious double chance for september.
Fremantle have spent almost the entire season in the top four but would be concerned by a few signs in the last fortnight.
Two weeks ago they were outplayed by Richmond at Etihad, and last week they very nearly surrended a seven goal lead against a struggling Melbourne side at home.
Michael Barlow has been a huge loss and is testing the depth of the midfield group in a big way.
Mcpharlin has returned in defence but they are still missing Tarrant and Grover, as well as Headland and Mayne from their attack.
Throw in the loss of Barlow and the young dockers are missing at least five members of their best 22.
You can throw in Ryan Crowley as well who will miss this week with a knee injury.
These six losses and the improved form of the Bulldogs points to a tough day at the office for the boys from WA but they haven't done much wrong this year and must still be considered a chance.
These two teams are probably the best two "touch" football teams in the competition. When given space and time they are the two teams most likely to punish you so one thing you can expect is an entertaining free flowing affair on Sunday.
Ballantyne was the match winner last week, so expect Morris or Harbrow to man up on him, probably Harbrow.
Lake would get Pavlich if he went forward, and the Dockers may also need to play both Mcphee and Johnson forward to try and stretch the Doggies given Pavlich may be required on ball to help cover a couple of key losses.
David Mundy will probably draw a defensive tag from Picken as he has been the most consistent on baller outside of Barlow for Fremantle this year.
For the Bulldogs, this has been a week in the headlines after the sacking of Jason Akermanis (a decision I agree with), and expect a fired up response as the group rallies together to push on without their controversial star.
Generally a week like this galvanises a group and the Bulldogs know what's on the line with this game.
Their last two weeks have been some of their best footy for the year and the midfield group is gaining some momentum.
Boyd, Cooney, Cross and Griffen are in excellent form and they should at this point have a bit too much experience for Fremantle in a big game environement.
Also physical maturity is important, these Bulldogs onballers have had a few years of finals experience, and most have over 100 games in the bank.
Of the Fremantle midfield group, Suban, Hill, Ibbotson, Palmer, Duffield, Mundy, only Mundy has played more then 100 games.
Sandilands v Hudson will be a good battle, Sandilands is the games best ruckmen, but Hudson is as honest as they come and a huge factor in the Bulldogs success. His physicality at the around the ground stoppages will be a good test for Sandilands as well.
Hall will return for the Doggies, and Johnson, Higgins and Murphy are slowly building.
There is no Mitch Hahn, and they will need him back for September as his forward pressure is second to none, but Jarrod Grant is playing well enough at present for the Bulldogs to function without him.
Part of the scoring dry up this year though has been due to poor delivery and a lack of offensive pressure.
The Bulldogs have turned the ball over 45% of the times they have gone inside fifty this season which is the worst in the comp.
However in the last five weeks that is down to 29% so the wheel is turning.
The Bulldogs are the number one team for uncontested posessions this year, and freo concede the most uncontested posessions which confirms the theory they are both "touch" football teams.
Both these sides are the best at punishing teams who turn the ball over so it all points to a high scoring affair.
The Bulldogs however are better prepared for that at present. They are closer to full strength, playing at home and have the runs on the board.
This young Freo outfit has been fantastic but appear to be sliding a touch as a long season catches up with them.
They will put up a fight on Sunday, and they deserve to be considered more then a mug's chance, but come Sunday night, they will sit outside the top four for the first time in a long time.
Western Bulldogs by 25 points
Western Bulldogs - 5th - 10-6- 133.47%
Fremantle -4th - 11-5 - 118.87%
Whoever wins this game should go on to finish the season in fourth place and earn the prescious double chance for september.
Fremantle have spent almost the entire season in the top four but would be concerned by a few signs in the last fortnight.
Two weeks ago they were outplayed by Richmond at Etihad, and last week they very nearly surrended a seven goal lead against a struggling Melbourne side at home.
Michael Barlow has been a huge loss and is testing the depth of the midfield group in a big way.
Mcpharlin has returned in defence but they are still missing Tarrant and Grover, as well as Headland and Mayne from their attack.
Throw in the loss of Barlow and the young dockers are missing at least five members of their best 22.
You can throw in Ryan Crowley as well who will miss this week with a knee injury.
These six losses and the improved form of the Bulldogs points to a tough day at the office for the boys from WA but they haven't done much wrong this year and must still be considered a chance.
These two teams are probably the best two "touch" football teams in the competition. When given space and time they are the two teams most likely to punish you so one thing you can expect is an entertaining free flowing affair on Sunday.
Ballantyne was the match winner last week, so expect Morris or Harbrow to man up on him, probably Harbrow.
Lake would get Pavlich if he went forward, and the Dockers may also need to play both Mcphee and Johnson forward to try and stretch the Doggies given Pavlich may be required on ball to help cover a couple of key losses.
David Mundy will probably draw a defensive tag from Picken as he has been the most consistent on baller outside of Barlow for Fremantle this year.
For the Bulldogs, this has been a week in the headlines after the sacking of Jason Akermanis (a decision I agree with), and expect a fired up response as the group rallies together to push on without their controversial star.
Generally a week like this galvanises a group and the Bulldogs know what's on the line with this game.
Their last two weeks have been some of their best footy for the year and the midfield group is gaining some momentum.
Boyd, Cooney, Cross and Griffen are in excellent form and they should at this point have a bit too much experience for Fremantle in a big game environement.
Also physical maturity is important, these Bulldogs onballers have had a few years of finals experience, and most have over 100 games in the bank.
Of the Fremantle midfield group, Suban, Hill, Ibbotson, Palmer, Duffield, Mundy, only Mundy has played more then 100 games.
Sandilands v Hudson will be a good battle, Sandilands is the games best ruckmen, but Hudson is as honest as they come and a huge factor in the Bulldogs success. His physicality at the around the ground stoppages will be a good test for Sandilands as well.
Hall will return for the Doggies, and Johnson, Higgins and Murphy are slowly building.
There is no Mitch Hahn, and they will need him back for September as his forward pressure is second to none, but Jarrod Grant is playing well enough at present for the Bulldogs to function without him.
Part of the scoring dry up this year though has been due to poor delivery and a lack of offensive pressure.
The Bulldogs have turned the ball over 45% of the times they have gone inside fifty this season which is the worst in the comp.
However in the last five weeks that is down to 29% so the wheel is turning.
The Bulldogs are the number one team for uncontested posessions this year, and freo concede the most uncontested posessions which confirms the theory they are both "touch" football teams.
Both these sides are the best at punishing teams who turn the ball over so it all points to a high scoring affair.
The Bulldogs however are better prepared for that at present. They are closer to full strength, playing at home and have the runs on the board.
This young Freo outfit has been fantastic but appear to be sliding a touch as a long season catches up with them.
They will put up a fight on Sunday, and they deserve to be considered more then a mug's chance, but come Sunday night, they will sit outside the top four for the first time in a long time.
Western Bulldogs by 25 points
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Preview - Westcoast vs Carlton - Round 17
Westcoast vs Cartlon - Subiaco - Saturday Night
Westcoast -16th-4-12-78.55%
Carlton - 8th - 8-8 - 104.51%
Carlton's season is on the line this Saturday night when they travel to Perth to take on a Westcoast side who's last fortnight has been a vast improvement on what they have dished up for much of the year.
The Eagles had a close loss to the in form Crows, and then belted Essendon last week at Etihad to register their second win in Melbourne for the year.
Westcoast are now back in the hunt to avoid a first ever wooden spoon and will in all likelihood get off the bottom of the ladder this weekend if they can defeat the Blues.
Carlton have lost four of their past five, and the heat has been turned up on their squad, as well as coach Brett Ratten.
If they lose this one, rightly or wrongly, expect the scrutiny on Ratten to increase next week.
Carlton's midfield group has fallen away badly, with Marc Murphy not enjoying anywhere near the season he had last year, Bryce Gibbs struggling for consistency, Kade Simpson in a slight trough and Chris Judd having to shoulder much of the load.
A lot of people have questioned Judd's standing amongst the games top ten in recent weeks, and whilst I agree he has lost a bit of penetration in his kicking, he still breaks the lines, provides the crucial clearance work and creates the play like few others.
I would take him amongst the first picked in my side anyday and he is the least of their concerns.
The problem is support, he needs a bit of grunt work to help clear a path, and Brock Mclean was earmarked as that man late last year.
However injuries have affected him greatly and he hasn't been able to provide that protector role that the Blues were so eager for him to fill.
Richard Hadley is another who hasn't come on to fill that role.
At the start of the year, we were lauding the club's ruck stocks, but the loss of Kreuzer has hit them hard.
Jacobs is a second stringer playing as a first stringer, and Hampson is still pretty raw even if he looks promising.
Expect Warnock to get a reprieve this week, to mix things up a bit.
Eddie Betts has done his job in attack this year, but Yarran and Garlett as well as Eddie rely on a food supply like most small forwards and that has been dried up of late.
Setanta O'Hailpin who started the season so brightly found himself dropped last week, and Lachie Henderson isn't quite ready to fill the void in attack consistently.
The Blues have scored goals from just 17% of Inside fifties in the last month, ranked last in the competition.
In defence I think they are ok. Bower and Jamison are good young players, Armfield and Russell are both solid contributors, but Thornton remains a mystery, he has been dropped twice this year now and needs to assess where he wants to go from here.
One major problem for their defence is that a lack of midfield pressure is leaving it under the pump far to often.
If the opposition is allowed easy ball inside fifty, it doesn't matter who is down there, you will have some problems.
The Blues are conceding goals from 32% of opposition Inside Fifties in the last three weeks, the worst record in the competition as well.
For the Eagles pressure is the key. The Blues are turning the ball over more then they have all year at present, and teams have been putting the blowtorch on their midfield group.
Westcoast forced enough turnovers from Essendon to rip them apart last week, and it was their best defensive effort of the season in terms of forcing turnovers, and then scoring from them.
Sydney defeated Carlton in much the same way last week so the Eagles will no doubt have watched that.
Being a big ground, it is very important not to butcher the footy as you will be carved up in space.
Mark Lecras should get Andrew Walker as his opponent given Walker has shut down Steve Johnson already this year, Russell and Armfield will be options two and three for the inform Eagles star.
Priddis, Shepherd, Rosa, Masten, Ebert and Embley all generated plenty of drive for the Eagles last week and they are in better form right now then their Carlton counterparts.
Dean Cox showed pleasing signs given his indifferent form, and Natanui played his role superbly.
Down back they have their concerns the Eagles, but I'm not sure Carlton are in good enough form to exploit that.
Kennedy will be keen to show his old side his value and I can guarantee the Blues could do with him right now.
Expect a big game from the man with the worst kicking action in history (yet one of the most effective).
Pound for pound, Carlton are a better side then the Eagles, but on form right now they just aren't doing enough for me to be able to tip them with any confidence. The Eagles at Subiaco are about a six goal better side and they tick more boxes in this contest.
The Blues forward line is really struggling, and the pressure through the midfield is letting them down badly.
The Eagles have a sniff of confidence at present and will compound the Blues woes and deliver a savage blow to their finals chances in the process.
Westcoast by 9 points.
Westcoast -16th-4-12-78.55%
Carlton - 8th - 8-8 - 104.51%
Carlton's season is on the line this Saturday night when they travel to Perth to take on a Westcoast side who's last fortnight has been a vast improvement on what they have dished up for much of the year.
The Eagles had a close loss to the in form Crows, and then belted Essendon last week at Etihad to register their second win in Melbourne for the year.
Westcoast are now back in the hunt to avoid a first ever wooden spoon and will in all likelihood get off the bottom of the ladder this weekend if they can defeat the Blues.
Carlton have lost four of their past five, and the heat has been turned up on their squad, as well as coach Brett Ratten.
If they lose this one, rightly or wrongly, expect the scrutiny on Ratten to increase next week.
Carlton's midfield group has fallen away badly, with Marc Murphy not enjoying anywhere near the season he had last year, Bryce Gibbs struggling for consistency, Kade Simpson in a slight trough and Chris Judd having to shoulder much of the load.
A lot of people have questioned Judd's standing amongst the games top ten in recent weeks, and whilst I agree he has lost a bit of penetration in his kicking, he still breaks the lines, provides the crucial clearance work and creates the play like few others.
I would take him amongst the first picked in my side anyday and he is the least of their concerns.
The problem is support, he needs a bit of grunt work to help clear a path, and Brock Mclean was earmarked as that man late last year.
However injuries have affected him greatly and he hasn't been able to provide that protector role that the Blues were so eager for him to fill.
Richard Hadley is another who hasn't come on to fill that role.
At the start of the year, we were lauding the club's ruck stocks, but the loss of Kreuzer has hit them hard.
Jacobs is a second stringer playing as a first stringer, and Hampson is still pretty raw even if he looks promising.
Expect Warnock to get a reprieve this week, to mix things up a bit.
Eddie Betts has done his job in attack this year, but Yarran and Garlett as well as Eddie rely on a food supply like most small forwards and that has been dried up of late.
Setanta O'Hailpin who started the season so brightly found himself dropped last week, and Lachie Henderson isn't quite ready to fill the void in attack consistently.
The Blues have scored goals from just 17% of Inside fifties in the last month, ranked last in the competition.
In defence I think they are ok. Bower and Jamison are good young players, Armfield and Russell are both solid contributors, but Thornton remains a mystery, he has been dropped twice this year now and needs to assess where he wants to go from here.
One major problem for their defence is that a lack of midfield pressure is leaving it under the pump far to often.
If the opposition is allowed easy ball inside fifty, it doesn't matter who is down there, you will have some problems.
The Blues are conceding goals from 32% of opposition Inside Fifties in the last three weeks, the worst record in the competition as well.
For the Eagles pressure is the key. The Blues are turning the ball over more then they have all year at present, and teams have been putting the blowtorch on their midfield group.
Westcoast forced enough turnovers from Essendon to rip them apart last week, and it was their best defensive effort of the season in terms of forcing turnovers, and then scoring from them.
Sydney defeated Carlton in much the same way last week so the Eagles will no doubt have watched that.
Being a big ground, it is very important not to butcher the footy as you will be carved up in space.
Mark Lecras should get Andrew Walker as his opponent given Walker has shut down Steve Johnson already this year, Russell and Armfield will be options two and three for the inform Eagles star.
Priddis, Shepherd, Rosa, Masten, Ebert and Embley all generated plenty of drive for the Eagles last week and they are in better form right now then their Carlton counterparts.
Dean Cox showed pleasing signs given his indifferent form, and Natanui played his role superbly.
Down back they have their concerns the Eagles, but I'm not sure Carlton are in good enough form to exploit that.
Kennedy will be keen to show his old side his value and I can guarantee the Blues could do with him right now.
Expect a big game from the man with the worst kicking action in history (yet one of the most effective).
Pound for pound, Carlton are a better side then the Eagles, but on form right now they just aren't doing enough for me to be able to tip them with any confidence. The Eagles at Subiaco are about a six goal better side and they tick more boxes in this contest.
The Blues forward line is really struggling, and the pressure through the midfield is letting them down badly.
The Eagles have a sniff of confidence at present and will compound the Blues woes and deliver a savage blow to their finals chances in the process.
Westcoast by 9 points.
Preview -North Melbourne vs Essendon Round 17
North Melbourne vs Essendon - Etihad - Saturday Night
North Melbourne - 9th - 8-8 - 85.15%
Essendon - 12th - 5-11- 83.60%
Etihad Stadium on Saturday Night will play host to a couple of teams who are experiencing contrasting seasons.
North Melbourne have to be admired for their efforts this season under a new coach, and they are a very real chance of tasting finals action in Brad Scott's first year.
The Bombers on the other hand are under enormous pressure.
Having played finals in 2009, this year has been a major dissapointment with six straight losses seeing them fall out of contention for September action and increasing speculation on the future of coach Matthew Knights.
Last week's loss to Wooden Spoon favourite West coast was the absolute low point on the season and whilst I believe Matthew Knights is safe at least until the end of this year, they would want to turn things around pretty quickly.
Even if just to fight off the masses for a while and ease some pressure on the proud club from Windy Hill.
David Hille's absence has been particularly telling, it has put pressure on Ryder and Bellchambers to carry the mantle in the ruck and they sorely miss his physicality and smarts around the ground at present.
No Pears, and interrupted seasons to Hooker, Fletcher and Slattery has put pressure on their already fragile defence and that has never been more evident then last week when Lecras went berserk.
Essendon's pressure skills have slipped as well, they were tackling very well Rounds 5-10 when they took the scalps of Hawthorn, St.Kilda and the Bulldogs, but have dropped away a bit since then.
This is evident by the fact that they are not forcing errors from teams.
Essendon are last for marks from opposition kicks, and also concede the second highest number of marks inside fifty in the AFL over the course of the season.
It confirms the theory that when at their worst, they can get opened up like a tin can without too many problems.
When confidence is low, you need to start well, and Essendon hasn't won a first quarter since Round 9.
They will need a solid start against the Kangaroos so their crowd can get involved and the confidence of the group can grow.
For the Kangaroos this game is a must win, 8-8 with a poor percentage so they need to win more games then Adelaide and Carlton to play finals.
If all parties finish on the same wins, the roos miss out, and this is another super important game.
The run home is tricky, but not horrible for the Kangaroos but this is one of those good old fashioned danger games that would make fans a touch nervous.
You never want to play a team that's under seige having experienced another week under the microscope, so the Kangaroos need to be wary.
Lindsay Thomas is still a couple of weeks away but the Kangaroos are demonstrating their depth of talent this year with several blokes missing a fair bit of footy through injury, and some kids stepping up into the fold.
Last week's performance was very efficient and professional by the Kangaroos who controlled the game from the get go against an in form Tigers outfit, and it demonstrates that this North side can do everything pretty well.
The key is developing some real class over the coming years, and it's hard not to see these Roos factoring prominently in the finals over the next few seasons.
Bastinac, Cunnington, Anthony (injured), Adams, Goldstein (ruck), Garlett, Ziebell and co representing a very talented future midfield group.
Their defence is well organised and efficient and their attack is starting to settle down.
They are vulnerable against the real quality teams, but that will change as their development advances over time.
If your a North Melbourne supporter, you should be reasonably pleased with what might be in store.
North Melbourne are the number one team this year for scoring from set shots, averaging 56% of their weekly score from marks or free kicks. They are also number three in the AFL for marks inside fifty so if you look at Essendon's stat on conceding marks in their defensive arc, it could be a problem for the red and black boys.
Six of the Kangaroos eight victories this seaon have come at the venue and they should make it seven on saturday night.
Lachy Hansen's mobility in attack could pose headaches as well for Essendon, with Fletcher likely to get him.
But I can see the likes of Edwards and Warren being difficult match ups for them, and they will test the defensive running of Essendon's midfielders with their spread of goals from onballers as well.
Clearance wise these teams are fairly evenly matched, but the Roos have at this stage, the more in form running outside players and therefore should create more chances then Essendon.
Watson and Stanton have far too much responsibility, but they don't hurt you as much as others with their posessions.
Winderlich is the man who will probably draw a tag for the Bombers as he is in some of the best form of his career amongst all the doom and gloom for Essendon.
But this is the Kangaroos 9th win of the season, whilst it won't be easy, and they will need to beware the wounded opponent, they should have a little too much run and depth at present to drop a game of such high importance and their bold march to September will still be well and truelly alive come 10pm Saturday Night.
North Melbourne by 16 points.
North Melbourne - 9th - 8-8 - 85.15%
Essendon - 12th - 5-11- 83.60%
Etihad Stadium on Saturday Night will play host to a couple of teams who are experiencing contrasting seasons.
North Melbourne have to be admired for their efforts this season under a new coach, and they are a very real chance of tasting finals action in Brad Scott's first year.
The Bombers on the other hand are under enormous pressure.
Having played finals in 2009, this year has been a major dissapointment with six straight losses seeing them fall out of contention for September action and increasing speculation on the future of coach Matthew Knights.
Last week's loss to Wooden Spoon favourite West coast was the absolute low point on the season and whilst I believe Matthew Knights is safe at least until the end of this year, they would want to turn things around pretty quickly.
Even if just to fight off the masses for a while and ease some pressure on the proud club from Windy Hill.
David Hille's absence has been particularly telling, it has put pressure on Ryder and Bellchambers to carry the mantle in the ruck and they sorely miss his physicality and smarts around the ground at present.
No Pears, and interrupted seasons to Hooker, Fletcher and Slattery has put pressure on their already fragile defence and that has never been more evident then last week when Lecras went berserk.
Essendon's pressure skills have slipped as well, they were tackling very well Rounds 5-10 when they took the scalps of Hawthorn, St.Kilda and the Bulldogs, but have dropped away a bit since then.
This is evident by the fact that they are not forcing errors from teams.
Essendon are last for marks from opposition kicks, and also concede the second highest number of marks inside fifty in the AFL over the course of the season.
It confirms the theory that when at their worst, they can get opened up like a tin can without too many problems.
When confidence is low, you need to start well, and Essendon hasn't won a first quarter since Round 9.
They will need a solid start against the Kangaroos so their crowd can get involved and the confidence of the group can grow.
For the Kangaroos this game is a must win, 8-8 with a poor percentage so they need to win more games then Adelaide and Carlton to play finals.
If all parties finish on the same wins, the roos miss out, and this is another super important game.
The run home is tricky, but not horrible for the Kangaroos but this is one of those good old fashioned danger games that would make fans a touch nervous.
You never want to play a team that's under seige having experienced another week under the microscope, so the Kangaroos need to be wary.
Lindsay Thomas is still a couple of weeks away but the Kangaroos are demonstrating their depth of talent this year with several blokes missing a fair bit of footy through injury, and some kids stepping up into the fold.
Last week's performance was very efficient and professional by the Kangaroos who controlled the game from the get go against an in form Tigers outfit, and it demonstrates that this North side can do everything pretty well.
The key is developing some real class over the coming years, and it's hard not to see these Roos factoring prominently in the finals over the next few seasons.
Bastinac, Cunnington, Anthony (injured), Adams, Goldstein (ruck), Garlett, Ziebell and co representing a very talented future midfield group.
Their defence is well organised and efficient and their attack is starting to settle down.
They are vulnerable against the real quality teams, but that will change as their development advances over time.
If your a North Melbourne supporter, you should be reasonably pleased with what might be in store.
North Melbourne are the number one team this year for scoring from set shots, averaging 56% of their weekly score from marks or free kicks. They are also number three in the AFL for marks inside fifty so if you look at Essendon's stat on conceding marks in their defensive arc, it could be a problem for the red and black boys.
Six of the Kangaroos eight victories this seaon have come at the venue and they should make it seven on saturday night.
Lachy Hansen's mobility in attack could pose headaches as well for Essendon, with Fletcher likely to get him.
But I can see the likes of Edwards and Warren being difficult match ups for them, and they will test the defensive running of Essendon's midfielders with their spread of goals from onballers as well.
Clearance wise these teams are fairly evenly matched, but the Roos have at this stage, the more in form running outside players and therefore should create more chances then Essendon.
Watson and Stanton have far too much responsibility, but they don't hurt you as much as others with their posessions.
Winderlich is the man who will probably draw a tag for the Bombers as he is in some of the best form of his career amongst all the doom and gloom for Essendon.
But this is the Kangaroos 9th win of the season, whilst it won't be easy, and they will need to beware the wounded opponent, they should have a little too much run and depth at present to drop a game of such high importance and their bold march to September will still be well and truelly alive come 10pm Saturday Night.
North Melbourne by 16 points.
Preview- Geelong vs Brisbane Round 17
Geelong vs Brisbane - Skilled Stadium - Saturday
Geelong 2nd -12-4 - 142.73%
Brisbane 13th -5-11- 81.60%
As I sit and write this report it is very difficult to get excited by a contest that has the potential to be one of the more lopsided in recent times.
The Brisbane Lions in essence are not the worst team in the competition, but in the reality of what is happening in front of us, you could mount a fair argument that they are.
The Cats are coming off a loss and will be stinging, have won 21 in a row at Skilled Stadium, have not lost in Victoria to the Lions in six years and welcome back Darren Milburn and Steve Johnson.
The recipe is not good for this one that is for sure.
The Brisbane Lions need to treat this as the start of a new beginning, a six week launching pad into 2011.
The season has been a disaster for the Lions, with a spate of injuries, a lack of confidence and a realisation of some key deficiencies that have derailed them after starting 4-0 in the first month.
Simon Black is likely to miss this week again, and there are several others out still, but the intensity last week was not acceptable.
You can be undermanned, you can be down on form, both of those are fine, but you must compete and fight hard regardless of the circumstances, and the Lions were uncompetitive last week against the Hawks.
The lowest ever recorded number of Inside 50's, 150 less disposals and just eight shots at goal for the game is the epitomy of rock bottom.
Thankfully there is only one way you go from here and that is up, and the Lions leadership group made the right statement this week by standing by Michael Voss and putting their hands up to cop some blame.
Expect a spirited showing this week from the team, but sadly that's about all they can hope for.
Sherman needs a lift, so does Mitch Clark, Luke Power seems to be approaching the finishing line and they simply do not have enough options outside of Brown and Fev.
They have a heavy reliance on those two to kick 70% of their score each week and you simply cannot compete with the best without some support and spread in attack.
Sherman has been a goal kicker but is struggling, Buchanan hasn't offered much, and the midfield goals have dried up.
Aaron Cornelius is a bloke who must surely come back in, his form had been very solid and yes he's another tall but the kid is lively, he attacks the footy hard and has good hands, they need to start blooding him.
Rockliff, Redden, Polkinghorne and co are developing well and this is where the positive lies for them going forward. The more exposure and education these blokes get can serve the club well for 2011.
When Adcock, Drummond and co return the Lions would feel with a solid pre season that they could perhaps push for the eight next year, provided they can find one or two more paths to goal.
For Geelong, last week's loss was probably coming for a while. They had lost the contested posession count in four of their previous five matches and their disposal efficiency has dropped.
Credit to the crows certainly, but when you throw in the dramas with the club doctor, and what Adelaide had on the line they were there for the taking.
This week however they return to a venue where they have won 21 straight matches. They will get a couple more players back and continue to fine tune themselves for September.
The cats have won the Inside Fifty count in 20 of those 21 matches, and the Lions are the worst team in the comp at present in restricting marks iside fifty.
Given Geelong's delivery, it could get messy if the Lions don't apply pressure through the middle.
Last time these teams met was at the Gabba and the Cats had 118 more disposals, and a 14% higher efficiceny. They also won the game by 81 points.
The Lions have been last for pressure skills, disposal efficiency, and restricting opposition forward entries in the last month and that could prove to be a lethal mix on Saturday.
Maguire may get a crack at Podsiadly with Merrett to take Mooney. Stevie J, Chapman, Stokes, Varcoe, Byrnes and co will then require attention beyond the capabilities of the Lions undermanned defence.
Patful is quite nimble, he should get Johnson.
At the other end, Scarlett will make life very tough for Fevola, Harry Taylor or Lonergan to get dibs on Brown. So even though the two key Lions loom as a threat every time they play, the Cats are more then equipped to limit them, especially if the Lions enter the forard arch as rarely as they did last week.
Ottens is tracking along better with each passing week, and the Cats midfield depth will be far too strong for a Lions side nursing a couple of out of form players, and minus the superstar Simon Black.
Bartel, Selwood, Ablett and co will have a picnic on Saturday afternoon as it's hard to picture the Lions being able to put the clamps on them.
The order of the day for Brisbane is to compete, fight and scrap, and work for each other to put the wheels in motion for the ressurection of the club going into 2011.
For Geelong it's about steadying the ship, banking another four points, getting out injury free and moving on to next week.
Often these games can be uneventful low scoring routs, such as a 16 goal to 5 result and I suspect we will get similar here.
The classy Geelong side will do exactly what they have to do and nothing more.
Geelong by 61 points.
Geelong 2nd -12-4 - 142.73%
Brisbane 13th -5-11- 81.60%
As I sit and write this report it is very difficult to get excited by a contest that has the potential to be one of the more lopsided in recent times.
The Brisbane Lions in essence are not the worst team in the competition, but in the reality of what is happening in front of us, you could mount a fair argument that they are.
The Cats are coming off a loss and will be stinging, have won 21 in a row at Skilled Stadium, have not lost in Victoria to the Lions in six years and welcome back Darren Milburn and Steve Johnson.
The recipe is not good for this one that is for sure.
The Brisbane Lions need to treat this as the start of a new beginning, a six week launching pad into 2011.
The season has been a disaster for the Lions, with a spate of injuries, a lack of confidence and a realisation of some key deficiencies that have derailed them after starting 4-0 in the first month.
Simon Black is likely to miss this week again, and there are several others out still, but the intensity last week was not acceptable.
You can be undermanned, you can be down on form, both of those are fine, but you must compete and fight hard regardless of the circumstances, and the Lions were uncompetitive last week against the Hawks.
The lowest ever recorded number of Inside 50's, 150 less disposals and just eight shots at goal for the game is the epitomy of rock bottom.
Thankfully there is only one way you go from here and that is up, and the Lions leadership group made the right statement this week by standing by Michael Voss and putting their hands up to cop some blame.
Expect a spirited showing this week from the team, but sadly that's about all they can hope for.
Sherman needs a lift, so does Mitch Clark, Luke Power seems to be approaching the finishing line and they simply do not have enough options outside of Brown and Fev.
They have a heavy reliance on those two to kick 70% of their score each week and you simply cannot compete with the best without some support and spread in attack.
Sherman has been a goal kicker but is struggling, Buchanan hasn't offered much, and the midfield goals have dried up.
Aaron Cornelius is a bloke who must surely come back in, his form had been very solid and yes he's another tall but the kid is lively, he attacks the footy hard and has good hands, they need to start blooding him.
Rockliff, Redden, Polkinghorne and co are developing well and this is where the positive lies for them going forward. The more exposure and education these blokes get can serve the club well for 2011.
When Adcock, Drummond and co return the Lions would feel with a solid pre season that they could perhaps push for the eight next year, provided they can find one or two more paths to goal.
For Geelong, last week's loss was probably coming for a while. They had lost the contested posession count in four of their previous five matches and their disposal efficiency has dropped.
Credit to the crows certainly, but when you throw in the dramas with the club doctor, and what Adelaide had on the line they were there for the taking.
This week however they return to a venue where they have won 21 straight matches. They will get a couple more players back and continue to fine tune themselves for September.
The cats have won the Inside Fifty count in 20 of those 21 matches, and the Lions are the worst team in the comp at present in restricting marks iside fifty.
Given Geelong's delivery, it could get messy if the Lions don't apply pressure through the middle.
Last time these teams met was at the Gabba and the Cats had 118 more disposals, and a 14% higher efficiceny. They also won the game by 81 points.
The Lions have been last for pressure skills, disposal efficiency, and restricting opposition forward entries in the last month and that could prove to be a lethal mix on Saturday.
Maguire may get a crack at Podsiadly with Merrett to take Mooney. Stevie J, Chapman, Stokes, Varcoe, Byrnes and co will then require attention beyond the capabilities of the Lions undermanned defence.
Patful is quite nimble, he should get Johnson.
At the other end, Scarlett will make life very tough for Fevola, Harry Taylor or Lonergan to get dibs on Brown. So even though the two key Lions loom as a threat every time they play, the Cats are more then equipped to limit them, especially if the Lions enter the forard arch as rarely as they did last week.
Ottens is tracking along better with each passing week, and the Cats midfield depth will be far too strong for a Lions side nursing a couple of out of form players, and minus the superstar Simon Black.
Bartel, Selwood, Ablett and co will have a picnic on Saturday afternoon as it's hard to picture the Lions being able to put the clamps on them.
The order of the day for Brisbane is to compete, fight and scrap, and work for each other to put the wheels in motion for the ressurection of the club going into 2011.
For Geelong it's about steadying the ship, banking another four points, getting out injury free and moving on to next week.
Often these games can be uneventful low scoring routs, such as a 16 goal to 5 result and I suspect we will get similar here.
The classy Geelong side will do exactly what they have to do and nothing more.
Geelong by 61 points.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Preview - Collingwood vs Richmond - Round 17
Collingwood vs Richmond at the MCG- Saturday
Collingwood 1st - 12-3-1 - 135.06%
Richmond 15th - 5-11- 74.19%
Two traditional rivals going head to head on a Saturday afternoon in Melbourne for the third weekend in a row, perhaps we are on to something!
This time it is a rampaging Collingwood side who sit atop the ladder after Round 16 for the first time since that famous 1990 season, and a young Richmond side who's remarkable resurgence hit a road block last week against North Melbourne.
Nevertheless expect up to 75,000 people to attend this game even if that is about 10-15 short of what the AFL would have got had the Tigers entered the clash on the back of five consecutive wins.
Collingwood supporters will be out in force like never before as they smell the distinct whiff of a premiership in the air after beating St.Kilda convincingly last week.
Collingwood had lost their last seven clashes combined against St.Kilda and Geelong and the missing piece of the puzzle was a scalp against one of the competitions top two teams to really show they have what it takes. That piece has been firmly knocked into place.
Richmond have taken many steps forward this year, even if the ladder still reads 15th place.
Given people's expectations at the start of the season, to be 5-11 from 16 rounds is a super turn around, all things being considered.
But it is super important not to drop the ball now. The Tigers were poor last week and can't afford to get blown away by Collingwood this week as it could seriously affect the confidence of the group and they owe it to themselves to avoid that.
The last six weeks present many chances for the Tigers, who should finish the season with seven-eight victories but a big hit this week could rock the pysche of the group which they need to guard against.
Jackson, Cotchin and Foley will all miss this week who are three of the club's best five clearance players so it's difficult to see Richmond legitimately having a chance at winning this one given those outs and the fact their opponents are flying.
Blockbuster fatigue has been mooted this year by many, but every game the Pies play is a big one and they won't allow that too happen on Saturday.
The depth of the Magpies squad has been a huge factor in their season so far, Wellingham and Thomas have taken steps forward this season, and the introduction of Ball and Jolly, as well as the further development of Blair, Beams, Dawes and Sidebottom has seen the club build significantly on last season.
Leigh Brown has been pivotal as well in not only potentially ending the career of Josh Fraser, but adding versatility to the Magpies who can get away with selecting just one specialist ruckmen.
Richmond's use of the ball and clearance dominance have been the cornerstones of their improvement, but a let down seemed inevitable given they had been riding a wave of confidence for more then a month.
Young sides often produce shockers out of nowhere and that happened for the Tigers last week.
They shouldn't necessarily be alarmed, and would be better inclined to see it as a wake up call and a reminder of the work that still needs to be done.
Connors, White, Edwards, King are four players who entered this season at the crossroads and all have improved to the point of securing their positions for 2011 and adding plenty to this Tigers line up.
Martin, Astbury, Nason, Webberly, Graham, Collins and Vickery are kids to have had a big impact this year, and of course Jack Riewoldt who is now the competitions most dangerous forward.
The Tigers are fast on the way to becoming a very good side and demand the respect of Collingwood this week, despite three significant midfield absentees.
Riewoldt will face a stiff test this week, not just against veteran defender Simon Prestigiacomo but also the entire defensive unit of the Magpies with O'Brien, Goldsack, Toovey and Shaw all prepared to leave their man and role over to be third man in and help nullify the Tigers star.
It might be wise to bring in a Mitch Morton this week to help take some pressure off Jack.
Mitch kicked three goals last week and looked lively for Coburg, he still has a place in this team I believe.
McGuane was good last week, and should get Dawes. Leon Davis and Allan Didak will most likely get Jake King and Shane Edwards as opponents and their will be no love lost between King and the Magpies with the nuggety Tiger suspended in each of his last two meetings between the teams.
Richmond also feel that King was "dobbed in" last time these two teams met in a practice match in what is a breach of the old players code, so expect plenty of feeling between these fierce rivals.
Collingwood have been the second most effective team once inside fifty in the last six weeks and the Tigers can leek goals when slightly off so it's important they apply pressure to the Pies at all stages.
Richmond's strength is around the stoppages, they deny opposition first posession more then anyone else at the moment, and concede the fewest scores from clearances, they will need to make do without Cotchin for the next month which will no doubt hurt, but it gives the chance for someone else to fill the void and take their chance at an AFL career.
This game has the potential to be a belting, but I think Richmond are made of stronger stuff this year, and expect them to continue the development shown in Rounds 10-15, it won't be enough to beat one of the competitions bench mark teams, but they should make something of the contest.
Collingwood by 34 points.
Collingwood 1st - 12-3-1 - 135.06%
Richmond 15th - 5-11- 74.19%
Two traditional rivals going head to head on a Saturday afternoon in Melbourne for the third weekend in a row, perhaps we are on to something!
This time it is a rampaging Collingwood side who sit atop the ladder after Round 16 for the first time since that famous 1990 season, and a young Richmond side who's remarkable resurgence hit a road block last week against North Melbourne.
Nevertheless expect up to 75,000 people to attend this game even if that is about 10-15 short of what the AFL would have got had the Tigers entered the clash on the back of five consecutive wins.
Collingwood supporters will be out in force like never before as they smell the distinct whiff of a premiership in the air after beating St.Kilda convincingly last week.
Collingwood had lost their last seven clashes combined against St.Kilda and Geelong and the missing piece of the puzzle was a scalp against one of the competitions top two teams to really show they have what it takes. That piece has been firmly knocked into place.
Richmond have taken many steps forward this year, even if the ladder still reads 15th place.
Given people's expectations at the start of the season, to be 5-11 from 16 rounds is a super turn around, all things being considered.
But it is super important not to drop the ball now. The Tigers were poor last week and can't afford to get blown away by Collingwood this week as it could seriously affect the confidence of the group and they owe it to themselves to avoid that.
The last six weeks present many chances for the Tigers, who should finish the season with seven-eight victories but a big hit this week could rock the pysche of the group which they need to guard against.
Jackson, Cotchin and Foley will all miss this week who are three of the club's best five clearance players so it's difficult to see Richmond legitimately having a chance at winning this one given those outs and the fact their opponents are flying.
Blockbuster fatigue has been mooted this year by many, but every game the Pies play is a big one and they won't allow that too happen on Saturday.
The depth of the Magpies squad has been a huge factor in their season so far, Wellingham and Thomas have taken steps forward this season, and the introduction of Ball and Jolly, as well as the further development of Blair, Beams, Dawes and Sidebottom has seen the club build significantly on last season.
Leigh Brown has been pivotal as well in not only potentially ending the career of Josh Fraser, but adding versatility to the Magpies who can get away with selecting just one specialist ruckmen.
Richmond's use of the ball and clearance dominance have been the cornerstones of their improvement, but a let down seemed inevitable given they had been riding a wave of confidence for more then a month.
Young sides often produce shockers out of nowhere and that happened for the Tigers last week.
They shouldn't necessarily be alarmed, and would be better inclined to see it as a wake up call and a reminder of the work that still needs to be done.
Connors, White, Edwards, King are four players who entered this season at the crossroads and all have improved to the point of securing their positions for 2011 and adding plenty to this Tigers line up.
Martin, Astbury, Nason, Webberly, Graham, Collins and Vickery are kids to have had a big impact this year, and of course Jack Riewoldt who is now the competitions most dangerous forward.
The Tigers are fast on the way to becoming a very good side and demand the respect of Collingwood this week, despite three significant midfield absentees.
Riewoldt will face a stiff test this week, not just against veteran defender Simon Prestigiacomo but also the entire defensive unit of the Magpies with O'Brien, Goldsack, Toovey and Shaw all prepared to leave their man and role over to be third man in and help nullify the Tigers star.
It might be wise to bring in a Mitch Morton this week to help take some pressure off Jack.
Mitch kicked three goals last week and looked lively for Coburg, he still has a place in this team I believe.
McGuane was good last week, and should get Dawes. Leon Davis and Allan Didak will most likely get Jake King and Shane Edwards as opponents and their will be no love lost between King and the Magpies with the nuggety Tiger suspended in each of his last two meetings between the teams.
Richmond also feel that King was "dobbed in" last time these two teams met in a practice match in what is a breach of the old players code, so expect plenty of feeling between these fierce rivals.
Collingwood have been the second most effective team once inside fifty in the last six weeks and the Tigers can leek goals when slightly off so it's important they apply pressure to the Pies at all stages.
Richmond's strength is around the stoppages, they deny opposition first posession more then anyone else at the moment, and concede the fewest scores from clearances, they will need to make do without Cotchin for the next month which will no doubt hurt, but it gives the chance for someone else to fill the void and take their chance at an AFL career.
This game has the potential to be a belting, but I think Richmond are made of stronger stuff this year, and expect them to continue the development shown in Rounds 10-15, it won't be enough to beat one of the competitions bench mark teams, but they should make something of the contest.
Collingwood by 34 points.
Preview - St.Kilda vs Hawthorn -Round 17
St.Kilda vs Hawthorn - Etihad Stadium - Friday Night
St.Kilda - 3rd- 12-4 - 121.31%
Hawthorn - 7th -9-7-108.21%
The crunch games continue for the Hawks this friday night when they take on a St.Kilda side fresh from it's first defeat in two months.
The Hawks could hardly have been more impressive in dismantling the hapless Lions last week in Launceston whilst the Saints suffered the second heaviest defeat in their last 41 matches when they went down to the Pies by 48 points.
Hawthorn had 150 more disposals then the Lions, and a staggering 36 more Inside Fifties.
But St.Kilda at Etihad Stadium presents a far different challenge to the Brisbane Lions in chlly Tasmania just at the moment.
For St.Kilda this week is equally important although for different reasons.
This is not the time to be losing two games in a row, especially to fellow contenders and they will be eager to display the form that carried them to seven straight wins from Rounds 9-15.
St.Kilda were pressured to breaking point by Collingwood who "Out St.Kilda'd, St.Kilda" and the Hawks pressure skills are back near their very best over the last eight or nine weeks and they would have taken plenty out of the Pies performance.
St.Kilda went at a disposal efficiency of 57% last week, their lowest of the season and over the past seven weeks the Hawks have restricted teams to an efficiency of 63% which is the best in the competition, so the tools are there for them to do the same this week.
Hawthorn's forward line showed some very good signs last week, with Jarryd Roughead finding a bit of form in what has been an indifferent season, Osborne and Lewis functioning well accross half forward, and a heavy rotation of on ballers through the front half of the ground.
This week they also welcome back Lance Franklin who has kicked just four goals in his last three games against St.Kilda and eleven in his past six.
Lance however has been in ominous form and will be keen to prey on the vulnerability of his great mate Zac Dawson.
Zac has been firing the first shots in the war with a text message exchange with Buddy this week, but will need to be on his toes.
St.Kilda's main strength is restricting opposition entries inside fifty, and also limiting the quality of those entries.
St.Kilda concede less inside fifties then anyone else in the comp, and also allow teams to retain posession just 40% of the times they go inside which has been the hallmark with which they have built their aura in the last two seasons.
We mentioned the pressure the Pies applied to St.Kilda last week, but pressure skills remain the key for the Saints as well.
Hawthorn in the last six weeks have outscored their opposition by 50 points from stoppage first posessions, ranked number two in the competition, so St.Kilda will need to be sharp here and they have been since about Round 9 so it looms as a fascinating battle.
Josh Gibson has put his hand up to play on underdone skipper Nick Riewoldt and he will most likely get the job.
For Saint Nick it is a case once again of putting some miles in the legs and improving each week.
Jason Gram is a similar story as he looks to be underdone as well, so expect another step forward for him.
Nick Dal Santo should return for the saints, and possibly Ben McEvoy as well.
Dempster and Pattison will probably be the unlucky two to lose their spots in the side, although Pattison hasn't been too bad.
Dawson will get Franklin, and Gwilt or Blake will go with Roughead, Expect Clinton Jones to attempt to put the clamps on the soon to be 2010 Brownlow Medallist Luke Hodge.
Cyril Rioli is the x factor, I'm not sure the saints have a match up quick enough for him at the moment.
Conversely, Schneider and Milne have the power to cause headaches for the Hawks who's defence remains a touch of a concern particularly against the Smalls.
Matthew Stokes was the difference a fortnight ago against the Cats.
Koschitzke should also keep his spot despite poor form as he has the power to stretch the Hawks deep in their defensive 50.
Gilham will probably get him, with big jobs also for Stratton and Murphy down back against the Saints forward line.
Wayde Skipper played his best game for the club last week and will be eager to back up against the Gardiner/McEvoy or Gardiner/Pattison combination.
In the middle Hayes, Goddard, Montagna, Dal Santo, Jones, Ray and Peake will go head to head with Hodge, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Sewell, Lewis, Ellis and Rioli which is a dream match up on paper.
St.Kilda have won seven of their past nine against the Hawks, including the last four at Etihad Stadium so they will enter the match with good confidence but so will the Hawks who with the exception of a two point loss to Geelong have been flawless since early May.
Hawthorn simply have to win this game if they are to finish top four, but St.Kilda on the rebound, and back at Etihad Stadium should just do enough to get the points and steady the ship ahead of the run to September.
But it'll be tight.
St.Kilda by 7 points
St.Kilda - 3rd- 12-4 - 121.31%
Hawthorn - 7th -9-7-108.21%
The crunch games continue for the Hawks this friday night when they take on a St.Kilda side fresh from it's first defeat in two months.
The Hawks could hardly have been more impressive in dismantling the hapless Lions last week in Launceston whilst the Saints suffered the second heaviest defeat in their last 41 matches when they went down to the Pies by 48 points.
Hawthorn had 150 more disposals then the Lions, and a staggering 36 more Inside Fifties.
But St.Kilda at Etihad Stadium presents a far different challenge to the Brisbane Lions in chlly Tasmania just at the moment.
For St.Kilda this week is equally important although for different reasons.
This is not the time to be losing two games in a row, especially to fellow contenders and they will be eager to display the form that carried them to seven straight wins from Rounds 9-15.
St.Kilda were pressured to breaking point by Collingwood who "Out St.Kilda'd, St.Kilda" and the Hawks pressure skills are back near their very best over the last eight or nine weeks and they would have taken plenty out of the Pies performance.
St.Kilda went at a disposal efficiency of 57% last week, their lowest of the season and over the past seven weeks the Hawks have restricted teams to an efficiency of 63% which is the best in the competition, so the tools are there for them to do the same this week.
Hawthorn's forward line showed some very good signs last week, with Jarryd Roughead finding a bit of form in what has been an indifferent season, Osborne and Lewis functioning well accross half forward, and a heavy rotation of on ballers through the front half of the ground.
This week they also welcome back Lance Franklin who has kicked just four goals in his last three games against St.Kilda and eleven in his past six.
Lance however has been in ominous form and will be keen to prey on the vulnerability of his great mate Zac Dawson.
Zac has been firing the first shots in the war with a text message exchange with Buddy this week, but will need to be on his toes.
St.Kilda's main strength is restricting opposition entries inside fifty, and also limiting the quality of those entries.
St.Kilda concede less inside fifties then anyone else in the comp, and also allow teams to retain posession just 40% of the times they go inside which has been the hallmark with which they have built their aura in the last two seasons.
We mentioned the pressure the Pies applied to St.Kilda last week, but pressure skills remain the key for the Saints as well.
Hawthorn in the last six weeks have outscored their opposition by 50 points from stoppage first posessions, ranked number two in the competition, so St.Kilda will need to be sharp here and they have been since about Round 9 so it looms as a fascinating battle.
Josh Gibson has put his hand up to play on underdone skipper Nick Riewoldt and he will most likely get the job.
For Saint Nick it is a case once again of putting some miles in the legs and improving each week.
Jason Gram is a similar story as he looks to be underdone as well, so expect another step forward for him.
Nick Dal Santo should return for the saints, and possibly Ben McEvoy as well.
Dempster and Pattison will probably be the unlucky two to lose their spots in the side, although Pattison hasn't been too bad.
Dawson will get Franklin, and Gwilt or Blake will go with Roughead, Expect Clinton Jones to attempt to put the clamps on the soon to be 2010 Brownlow Medallist Luke Hodge.
Cyril Rioli is the x factor, I'm not sure the saints have a match up quick enough for him at the moment.
Conversely, Schneider and Milne have the power to cause headaches for the Hawks who's defence remains a touch of a concern particularly against the Smalls.
Matthew Stokes was the difference a fortnight ago against the Cats.
Koschitzke should also keep his spot despite poor form as he has the power to stretch the Hawks deep in their defensive 50.
Gilham will probably get him, with big jobs also for Stratton and Murphy down back against the Saints forward line.
Wayde Skipper played his best game for the club last week and will be eager to back up against the Gardiner/McEvoy or Gardiner/Pattison combination.
In the middle Hayes, Goddard, Montagna, Dal Santo, Jones, Ray and Peake will go head to head with Hodge, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Sewell, Lewis, Ellis and Rioli which is a dream match up on paper.
St.Kilda have won seven of their past nine against the Hawks, including the last four at Etihad Stadium so they will enter the match with good confidence but so will the Hawks who with the exception of a two point loss to Geelong have been flawless since early May.
Hawthorn simply have to win this game if they are to finish top four, but St.Kilda on the rebound, and back at Etihad Stadium should just do enough to get the points and steady the ship ahead of the run to September.
But it'll be tight.
St.Kilda by 7 points
Monday, July 19, 2010
Crossing the Line
The roles and responsibilites that come with being an AFL Coach are many and varied.
Kevin Sheedy is a footballing legend, no one can argue that.
Multiple premierships as a player, 27 years at the helm as coach of the Bombers, including four premierships and seven grand finals.
When he speaks about the game, people listen and it is in this regard that he has overstepped the line in recent weeks.
Since his departure from Essendon at the end of 2007, Sheedy has been an outspoken observer on all aspects of the game in a number of different mediums, most notibly through his role with the Herald Sun.
However right now, Kevin Sheedy is not just a Herald Sun journo, and a former Essendon coach. He is the current coach of an AFL franchise in Greater West Sydney and with this should come an extra element of responsibility and restraint.
Not only that, but he is also the President of the Coaches association, and has felt the need to attack both Mick Malthouse and Matthew Knights in recent weeks.
In the last three weeks, Kevin Sheedy has also written an article outlining the responsibility all clubs have to "pillage" Geelong's list in a way of evening up the competition.
Through this he publicly analysed Geelong's list and essentially picked it apart for all to see.
GWS find themselves in a unique position, no doubt, and yes they will be coming for some of Geelong's stars, and those of many other clubs, but this sort of article is innapropriate given the role Sheedy holds as coach, and through the association.
Could you imagine Michael Voss coming out and saying next year we are gunning for Bartel, Corey, Stokes and Chapman?
It's just not the way it's done, and Sheedy has a responsibility to show due respect to the Cats in his role as a coach of a rival club, something he has failed to do here.
However where I think he has really crossed the line is through his attack on the Essendon football club and his successor Matthew Knights.
This is wrong on three levels, firstly a lot of what Sheedy says is fundamentally incorrect, secondly it is potentially destabilising for a club that he had so much to do with for so long, and thirdly once again he is out of line to be meddling in the coaching affairs of a rival club whilst he is currently involved with GWS.
Kevin Sheedy has questioned on more then one occasion whether Matthew Knights was the right man, and quoted reasons such as the desire to go outside the Essendon Football Club in search of a successor.
Kevin need remember his own background. Limited coaching experience, after a distinguished playing career at Richmond. Matthew Knights comes from that same background, Sheedy was not an Essendon person when hired, so that is a touch hypocritical.
It also seems a touch egotistical, in that the names Sheedy raised are guys he coached who are out in the market place, namely Bomber Thompson, Damien Hardwick, Mark Harvey and Dean Bailey.
Sheedy is portraying a belief that the club overlooked people "he had groomed" for success in favour of someone outside the club which reeks a bit of arrogance.
He also need remember that Essendon's plight is largely due to his doing.
Sheedy was a remarkable coach of Essendon, but he went on at least three years too long. Essendon's premiership tilt of the early part of the century was over by 2003, it was here they needed a rebuild.
Instead players like Mal Michael, Ty Zantuck, Justin Murphy, Matthew Allan, Scott Camporeale, and Chris Heffernan (redrafted) were brought into the club in an attempt to keep them in the finals.
This backfired with the Bombers falling into the bottom four by 2005 and remaining out of the eight until last year.
Sheedy also had a reluctance to pick the kids in his last few years, due to a desire to remain competitive.
I imagine this stems from a reality that his time at the club was nearing an end, and he was attempting to delay the inevitable by picking list cloggers that exist merely to keep a club competitive.
Matthew Knights came in, and a mini clean out followed, the Bombers injected youth in 2008 and showed signs of improvement, following that up in 2009 with some exciting football and a surprise finals appearance.
On that note, Knights first two years were a big tick, but it was that surprise finals appearance that has hurt him now.
Essendon made the eight on the back of 10 wins which over inflated a few opinions as to where they were at.
Right now, on the back of some injuries, a tough draw, and a drop in confidence Essendon have fallen away.
Knights may and probably will pay the price but I firmly believe that's unfair.
Lloyd and Lucas were not going to be a part of Essendon's next premiership team, and make no mistake, Scott Lucas was finished as a player.
Lloyd we need also remember was going to miss the first six weeks of the season anyway, and his body had been showing signs of wear and tear for two years.
Gumbleton, Hurley, Danniher and co are the future and giving them games is the best way to fast track that.
Sheedy would have kept probably both Lloyd and Lucas but that was part of the problem in the first place.
Keeping veterans too long saw Essendon get to the predicament they did 4-5 years ago.
Perhaps from a PR point of view, Knights could have managed it better, but the decision in essence was correct.
Sheedy is no longer the coach of Essendon, and his comments smack of pigheadedness and a lack of respect.
Throw in his remarks this week that Mick Malthouse is "the grumpiest man in the league" and has trouble building a list and we are seeing an alarming trend.
"There's no reason why I can't make comment on any club" Sheedy said on SEN yesterday.
"I'm not going to wait for anyone to tell me when I can make a comment about any club, any time.
"It's very, very awkward, but when you're working in the press and media, at times you have to make a comment that doesn't please everybody"
Well Sheeds, I'm sorry but yes there is a dam good reason why you can't, and the sooner you realise this the better.
A role within the media is fine, but it needs to be handled with due responsibility. Your primary responsibility remains to the game, and to your colleagues within the coaching ranks.
Coaches Association Chief Executive Danny Frawley admitted there were concerns.
"At times we think the lines have been crossed and we have had that discussion" he said.
"There's a fine line where he goes over and above.
"Would he be making comments if he was actually coaching a team on match day? Probably not"
Well if this is the case, then he shouldn't be making them now.
Sheedy is a great salesman, and will be fantastic for the game in GWS.
However with every role comes responsibility, and unfortunately in the last month, Sheedy has let his ego take control and entered into areas a man in his position should not.
His responsibilites as the President of the coaching association, and as an Essendon legend demand some restraint.
It's time he shows it.
Kevin Sheedy is a footballing legend, no one can argue that.
Multiple premierships as a player, 27 years at the helm as coach of the Bombers, including four premierships and seven grand finals.
When he speaks about the game, people listen and it is in this regard that he has overstepped the line in recent weeks.
Since his departure from Essendon at the end of 2007, Sheedy has been an outspoken observer on all aspects of the game in a number of different mediums, most notibly through his role with the Herald Sun.
However right now, Kevin Sheedy is not just a Herald Sun journo, and a former Essendon coach. He is the current coach of an AFL franchise in Greater West Sydney and with this should come an extra element of responsibility and restraint.
Not only that, but he is also the President of the Coaches association, and has felt the need to attack both Mick Malthouse and Matthew Knights in recent weeks.
In the last three weeks, Kevin Sheedy has also written an article outlining the responsibility all clubs have to "pillage" Geelong's list in a way of evening up the competition.
Through this he publicly analysed Geelong's list and essentially picked it apart for all to see.
GWS find themselves in a unique position, no doubt, and yes they will be coming for some of Geelong's stars, and those of many other clubs, but this sort of article is innapropriate given the role Sheedy holds as coach, and through the association.
Could you imagine Michael Voss coming out and saying next year we are gunning for Bartel, Corey, Stokes and Chapman?
It's just not the way it's done, and Sheedy has a responsibility to show due respect to the Cats in his role as a coach of a rival club, something he has failed to do here.
However where I think he has really crossed the line is through his attack on the Essendon football club and his successor Matthew Knights.
This is wrong on three levels, firstly a lot of what Sheedy says is fundamentally incorrect, secondly it is potentially destabilising for a club that he had so much to do with for so long, and thirdly once again he is out of line to be meddling in the coaching affairs of a rival club whilst he is currently involved with GWS.
Kevin Sheedy has questioned on more then one occasion whether Matthew Knights was the right man, and quoted reasons such as the desire to go outside the Essendon Football Club in search of a successor.
Kevin need remember his own background. Limited coaching experience, after a distinguished playing career at Richmond. Matthew Knights comes from that same background, Sheedy was not an Essendon person when hired, so that is a touch hypocritical.
It also seems a touch egotistical, in that the names Sheedy raised are guys he coached who are out in the market place, namely Bomber Thompson, Damien Hardwick, Mark Harvey and Dean Bailey.
Sheedy is portraying a belief that the club overlooked people "he had groomed" for success in favour of someone outside the club which reeks a bit of arrogance.
He also need remember that Essendon's plight is largely due to his doing.
Sheedy was a remarkable coach of Essendon, but he went on at least three years too long. Essendon's premiership tilt of the early part of the century was over by 2003, it was here they needed a rebuild.
Instead players like Mal Michael, Ty Zantuck, Justin Murphy, Matthew Allan, Scott Camporeale, and Chris Heffernan (redrafted) were brought into the club in an attempt to keep them in the finals.
This backfired with the Bombers falling into the bottom four by 2005 and remaining out of the eight until last year.
Sheedy also had a reluctance to pick the kids in his last few years, due to a desire to remain competitive.
I imagine this stems from a reality that his time at the club was nearing an end, and he was attempting to delay the inevitable by picking list cloggers that exist merely to keep a club competitive.
Matthew Knights came in, and a mini clean out followed, the Bombers injected youth in 2008 and showed signs of improvement, following that up in 2009 with some exciting football and a surprise finals appearance.
On that note, Knights first two years were a big tick, but it was that surprise finals appearance that has hurt him now.
Essendon made the eight on the back of 10 wins which over inflated a few opinions as to where they were at.
Right now, on the back of some injuries, a tough draw, and a drop in confidence Essendon have fallen away.
Knights may and probably will pay the price but I firmly believe that's unfair.
Lloyd and Lucas were not going to be a part of Essendon's next premiership team, and make no mistake, Scott Lucas was finished as a player.
Lloyd we need also remember was going to miss the first six weeks of the season anyway, and his body had been showing signs of wear and tear for two years.
Gumbleton, Hurley, Danniher and co are the future and giving them games is the best way to fast track that.
Sheedy would have kept probably both Lloyd and Lucas but that was part of the problem in the first place.
Keeping veterans too long saw Essendon get to the predicament they did 4-5 years ago.
Perhaps from a PR point of view, Knights could have managed it better, but the decision in essence was correct.
Sheedy is no longer the coach of Essendon, and his comments smack of pigheadedness and a lack of respect.
Throw in his remarks this week that Mick Malthouse is "the grumpiest man in the league" and has trouble building a list and we are seeing an alarming trend.
"There's no reason why I can't make comment on any club" Sheedy said on SEN yesterday.
"I'm not going to wait for anyone to tell me when I can make a comment about any club, any time.
"It's very, very awkward, but when you're working in the press and media, at times you have to make a comment that doesn't please everybody"
Well Sheeds, I'm sorry but yes there is a dam good reason why you can't, and the sooner you realise this the better.
A role within the media is fine, but it needs to be handled with due responsibility. Your primary responsibility remains to the game, and to your colleagues within the coaching ranks.
Coaches Association Chief Executive Danny Frawley admitted there were concerns.
"At times we think the lines have been crossed and we have had that discussion" he said.
"There's a fine line where he goes over and above.
"Would he be making comments if he was actually coaching a team on match day? Probably not"
Well if this is the case, then he shouldn't be making them now.
Sheedy is a great salesman, and will be fantastic for the game in GWS.
However with every role comes responsibility, and unfortunately in the last month, Sheedy has let his ego take control and entered into areas a man in his position should not.
His responsibilites as the President of the coaching association, and as an Essendon legend demand some restraint.
It's time he shows it.
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