Collingwood vs Richmond at the MCG- Saturday
Collingwood 1st - 12-3-1 - 135.06%
Richmond 15th - 5-11- 74.19%
Two traditional rivals going head to head on a Saturday afternoon in Melbourne for the third weekend in a row, perhaps we are on to something!
This time it is a rampaging Collingwood side who sit atop the ladder after Round 16 for the first time since that famous 1990 season, and a young Richmond side who's remarkable resurgence hit a road block last week against North Melbourne.
Nevertheless expect up to 75,000 people to attend this game even if that is about 10-15 short of what the AFL would have got had the Tigers entered the clash on the back of five consecutive wins.
Collingwood supporters will be out in force like never before as they smell the distinct whiff of a premiership in the air after beating St.Kilda convincingly last week.
Collingwood had lost their last seven clashes combined against St.Kilda and Geelong and the missing piece of the puzzle was a scalp against one of the competitions top two teams to really show they have what it takes. That piece has been firmly knocked into place.
Richmond have taken many steps forward this year, even if the ladder still reads 15th place.
Given people's expectations at the start of the season, to be 5-11 from 16 rounds is a super turn around, all things being considered.
But it is super important not to drop the ball now. The Tigers were poor last week and can't afford to get blown away by Collingwood this week as it could seriously affect the confidence of the group and they owe it to themselves to avoid that.
The last six weeks present many chances for the Tigers, who should finish the season with seven-eight victories but a big hit this week could rock the pysche of the group which they need to guard against.
Jackson, Cotchin and Foley will all miss this week who are three of the club's best five clearance players so it's difficult to see Richmond legitimately having a chance at winning this one given those outs and the fact their opponents are flying.
Blockbuster fatigue has been mooted this year by many, but every game the Pies play is a big one and they won't allow that too happen on Saturday.
The depth of the Magpies squad has been a huge factor in their season so far, Wellingham and Thomas have taken steps forward this season, and the introduction of Ball and Jolly, as well as the further development of Blair, Beams, Dawes and Sidebottom has seen the club build significantly on last season.
Leigh Brown has been pivotal as well in not only potentially ending the career of Josh Fraser, but adding versatility to the Magpies who can get away with selecting just one specialist ruckmen.
Richmond's use of the ball and clearance dominance have been the cornerstones of their improvement, but a let down seemed inevitable given they had been riding a wave of confidence for more then a month.
Young sides often produce shockers out of nowhere and that happened for the Tigers last week.
They shouldn't necessarily be alarmed, and would be better inclined to see it as a wake up call and a reminder of the work that still needs to be done.
Connors, White, Edwards, King are four players who entered this season at the crossroads and all have improved to the point of securing their positions for 2011 and adding plenty to this Tigers line up.
Martin, Astbury, Nason, Webberly, Graham, Collins and Vickery are kids to have had a big impact this year, and of course Jack Riewoldt who is now the competitions most dangerous forward.
The Tigers are fast on the way to becoming a very good side and demand the respect of Collingwood this week, despite three significant midfield absentees.
Riewoldt will face a stiff test this week, not just against veteran defender Simon Prestigiacomo but also the entire defensive unit of the Magpies with O'Brien, Goldsack, Toovey and Shaw all prepared to leave their man and role over to be third man in and help nullify the Tigers star.
It might be wise to bring in a Mitch Morton this week to help take some pressure off Jack.
Mitch kicked three goals last week and looked lively for Coburg, he still has a place in this team I believe.
McGuane was good last week, and should get Dawes. Leon Davis and Allan Didak will most likely get Jake King and Shane Edwards as opponents and their will be no love lost between King and the Magpies with the nuggety Tiger suspended in each of his last two meetings between the teams.
Richmond also feel that King was "dobbed in" last time these two teams met in a practice match in what is a breach of the old players code, so expect plenty of feeling between these fierce rivals.
Collingwood have been the second most effective team once inside fifty in the last six weeks and the Tigers can leek goals when slightly off so it's important they apply pressure to the Pies at all stages.
Richmond's strength is around the stoppages, they deny opposition first posession more then anyone else at the moment, and concede the fewest scores from clearances, they will need to make do without Cotchin for the next month which will no doubt hurt, but it gives the chance for someone else to fill the void and take their chance at an AFL career.
This game has the potential to be a belting, but I think Richmond are made of stronger stuff this year, and expect them to continue the development shown in Rounds 10-15, it won't be enough to beat one of the competitions bench mark teams, but they should make something of the contest.
Collingwood by 34 points.
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