Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs - Aami Stadium - Sunday
Adelaide 11th - 7-11 -91.92%
Western Bulldogs 4th - 12-6 - 141.27%
Round 19 will conclude at Aami Stadium with yet another intriguing game. The young Crows who cling to life by a thread in season 2010 will take on a Western Bulldogs outfit that cannot afford a slip up if it is to finish top four.
Adelaide's last two weeks have probably killed them, but the fact so many rivals for a spot in the eight have been losing as well, means they remain slightly in the hunt, but they will need to win all four games which seems improbable given the draw.
Last week they had Richmond on toast for the entire second quarter, but squandered several chances to put them away and ended up being over hauled after half time in a game reminiscint of the 1998 Grand Final which Crows fans would remember well.
With some experienced players injured or unavailable for a lot of the year the Crows have been forced to blood several youngsters and the majority look to have a bright future.
Sloane, Mackay, Henderson and Davis have looked good this year, and combine that with the continued development of Dangerfield, Walker, Douglas and Vince and Adelaide's prospects in 2011 aren't all that bleak.
They have been lacking some key experience at crucial stages of the last two games and it has cost them at important moments.
You could see that being a problem against the experienced and in form Bulldogs this week, but the Crows are always a hard nut to crack at home.
Last time they played a visiting team at home it was Geelong and they took the points that night so the Bulldogs will still need to bring every bit of their best form to win the game.
Adelaide's defence contained Jack Riewoldt last week through Rutten, and I could see him restricting Barry Hall. Johncock's return should help cover one of the Bulldogs smalls like a Gia or Higgins or perhaps even Johnson but it was Richmond's spread last week that got the better of the Crows.
Their defence is solid but lacks a bit of pace, and their midfield at this stage is a bit inconsistent given the young nature of the group.
This means the ball often comes down quickly and players find space more readily then normal against the Crows.
The Tigers had 11 goal kickers last week and kicked several sharp crumbing or stoppage goals after half time.
Adelaide rank third for restricting the opposition from marking inside fifty, but have been worse when the ball has hit the deck.
Expect Craig to be focusing on their front and square work in defence and protecting space in defensive fifty at a stoppage.
For the Bulldogs, the last month has been their best of the season. Big scores, lots of run, slick ball movement and four crushing wins on the trot has put them right in the mix for top four again.
Barry Hall is now joint leader in the Coleman, Jarrod Grant continues to develop whilst Johnson, Higgins, Giansiracusa and Murphy get better with each passing week.
Defensively the run provided by Gilbee, Harbrow, Murphy and co has been fantastic and Lake, Hargrave, Morris and Williams are all doing their job.
They can struggle at Aami Stadium from time to time, and with a game against Geelong to come, it is super critical that they get a result here.
Adelaide play with some flair but are primarily built on defence. The Bulldogs are the competitions slickest movers of the footy, and the most attacking, high scoring team in the competition so it's a battle of contrasts in many ways.
Lake will make life tough for the out of form Tippett, Morris should get Walker, Harbrow will take the porpoise, whilst Dangerfield and Henderson will need some close attention as well.
Jaensch and Sloane have been good of late and must be monitored also.
In the middle the Bulldogs spread of talent should shine through.
Boyd, Cooney, Cross, Higgins, Griffen and Gilbee should have too much for Vince, Van Berlo, Mackay, Thompson and potentially Goodwin.
Accuracy has been an issue of course as well for the crows. They are ranked 15th for converting shots this season so must sharpen up and take their chances, as they did against Geelong if they are to get home.
The Bulldogs are the number one side for marks once inside fifty, and as said above the Crows are one of the best at restricting this stat.
However I think they will struggle to contain the full compliment of scoring options at the Bulldogs disposal and try as they might they will eventually get outrun.
The Crows are capable of winning this game and the Bulldogs must be sharp, but with a top four berth on the line, and a fleet of quality players in form, they will be too strong.
For Adelaide, the difficult season that has been 2010 will finally be put to rest on Sunday.
Western Bulldogs by 22 points
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Preview - Melbourne vs Richmond -Round 19
Melbourne vs Richmond - MCG - Sunday
Melbourne 10th - 7-10-1 - 95.09%
Richmond 14th - 6-12 - 73.73%
This Sunday the MCG will play host to two teams with very bright futures in a fascinating clash of particular importance in shaping the final eight.
Melbourne can take a big step towards a surprise finals appearance if they win this game. Given the faltering form of some of their rivals in the eight at present, the door is open for Melbourne.
They must win at least three games between now and the end of the year, and quite possibly all four.
Although possible, that is unlikely as they are still prone to inconsistency.
To make the eight they would probably need to finish the season on close to a seven game winning streak. As good as they are, and will be, that seems beyond them even if the games in theory seem winnable.
I doubt personally that they can stay up that long, but we have seen them play some wonderful football when their confidence is up so I'm not going to rule them out.
The main focus for Melbourne is to continue to develop kids and just take each game as it comes and build something more for the future with every passing week.
They have an undoubted wealth of good kids, and after watching the Casey Scorpions last week I can conclude there are at least seven future guns running around at that level for them, so they will have a tremendous list that must leave all fans salivating at what lies ahead.
Last week the Dees were excellent for a half, then a little dissapointing for a half. In the first they were superb with their spread from the contest and just dominated the stoppages.
Their use of the ball was a significant level above Brisbane's and they appeared destined to blow them away.
After half time though the appeared tired and sloppy, and managed to hang on due to some poor discipline and a lack of precision by the Lions.
Often teams fall victim to the humidity in Brisbane after half time, and the Lions have been notoriously strong finishers at home so it's not a major surprise but Dean Bailey would have been a touch dissapointed with the way they faded.
An area Melbourne are really developing in is defence. In the past six weeks Melbourne have conceded less scores per Inside Fifty then any other side in the competition.
Defence is seen as the lorgical starting place when building a premiership team, and the Dees are building a very good one.
James Frawley is likely to get the job on Jack Riewoldt this week in a battle of two future champions taken out of the same draft a few years back.
The Dees will be hoping to welcome back Brent Moloney as his hardness has caused problems for Richmond in the past, and he dominated their most recent clash in Round four.
For the Tigers, last week was another win of character after two very poor weeks. They were on the ropes in the second quarter and totally at Adelaide's mercy, but the crows failed to put them away.
Richmond then did what good sides do and made them pay with a dominant second half that netted ten goals to four.
They have now beaten every interstate side in the competition but are yet to claim the scalp of a victorian club.
This week presents them with a big chance provided they can maintain last week's form without lapsing like they did in the previous fortnight.
Deledio, Newman and Connors are probably the three best kicks in the team, and Damien Hardwick is setting them all up accross half back much like the Hawthorn side did when Hardwick was involved about five years ago with Hodge, Birchall, Ellis, Young, Guerra and Ladson all floating accross half back.
Richmond have sharpened up by foot as a result of putting their creators in the most important positions and they are also very strong around the stoppages hence their dramatic improvement.
In the last nine weeks, Richmond are ranked second for tackles, and third for contested posessions so they have added a real hardness to their game.
The main concern is efficiency going forward. In the past three weeks they have hit a target with just 38% of forward entries, and this emerging demon defence will bring them undone if they are that sloppy again.
It looms as a fascinating battle with two emerging midfields, one that is excellent inside with it's clearance and contest work (Richmond), and the other that appears to be emulating itself on Geelong with it's run and spread from the contest and numbers around the ball at all times (Melbourne).
Not co-incidentally Hawthorn and Geelong are the last two premiers and have revolutionised the game tactically in completely different ways.
There is a fair chance these two sides will have sustained success over a period of time so it's interesting the trends they are tending to follow.
I'm really warming to Dean Bailey. I reckon he is doing a wonderful job developing them and has developed a game plan to their strengths.
It is a hard game to split. Melbourne are a bit better at their best, but both are inconsistent as expected.
Throw in the fact Melbourne are returning from a humid night in Brisbane, whilst Richmond have one less day to prepare.
Last time these sides met, Melbourne won by 55 points. But they have 5 changes to their side since then, and conversely Richmond have 7 changes, so I wouldn't necessarily take a lot out of that.
As a rule, these sides match up well on each other but I'm tipping an upset of sorts this week. Melbourne have been up for a while, but I think Richmond can get on top in the middle with the Dees missing a couple of key clearance players.
Just a gut feeling also, but Melbourne might get a touch of reality, and by no means a cruel one, that although they are travelling along beautifully, they have a few more hurdles to cross before they become a top side and the odd lull is too be expected.
Expect one from the young Dees sunday against the plucky Tiges given they are coming off a tough road trip on a hard ground on a warm night.
The Gabba trip has taken plenty out of several sides this year, and expect it to happen again.
Richmond by 5 points
Melbourne 10th - 7-10-1 - 95.09%
Richmond 14th - 6-12 - 73.73%
This Sunday the MCG will play host to two teams with very bright futures in a fascinating clash of particular importance in shaping the final eight.
Melbourne can take a big step towards a surprise finals appearance if they win this game. Given the faltering form of some of their rivals in the eight at present, the door is open for Melbourne.
They must win at least three games between now and the end of the year, and quite possibly all four.
Although possible, that is unlikely as they are still prone to inconsistency.
To make the eight they would probably need to finish the season on close to a seven game winning streak. As good as they are, and will be, that seems beyond them even if the games in theory seem winnable.
I doubt personally that they can stay up that long, but we have seen them play some wonderful football when their confidence is up so I'm not going to rule them out.
The main focus for Melbourne is to continue to develop kids and just take each game as it comes and build something more for the future with every passing week.
They have an undoubted wealth of good kids, and after watching the Casey Scorpions last week I can conclude there are at least seven future guns running around at that level for them, so they will have a tremendous list that must leave all fans salivating at what lies ahead.
Last week the Dees were excellent for a half, then a little dissapointing for a half. In the first they were superb with their spread from the contest and just dominated the stoppages.
Their use of the ball was a significant level above Brisbane's and they appeared destined to blow them away.
After half time though the appeared tired and sloppy, and managed to hang on due to some poor discipline and a lack of precision by the Lions.
Often teams fall victim to the humidity in Brisbane after half time, and the Lions have been notoriously strong finishers at home so it's not a major surprise but Dean Bailey would have been a touch dissapointed with the way they faded.
An area Melbourne are really developing in is defence. In the past six weeks Melbourne have conceded less scores per Inside Fifty then any other side in the competition.
Defence is seen as the lorgical starting place when building a premiership team, and the Dees are building a very good one.
James Frawley is likely to get the job on Jack Riewoldt this week in a battle of two future champions taken out of the same draft a few years back.
The Dees will be hoping to welcome back Brent Moloney as his hardness has caused problems for Richmond in the past, and he dominated their most recent clash in Round four.
For the Tigers, last week was another win of character after two very poor weeks. They were on the ropes in the second quarter and totally at Adelaide's mercy, but the crows failed to put them away.
Richmond then did what good sides do and made them pay with a dominant second half that netted ten goals to four.
They have now beaten every interstate side in the competition but are yet to claim the scalp of a victorian club.
This week presents them with a big chance provided they can maintain last week's form without lapsing like they did in the previous fortnight.
Deledio, Newman and Connors are probably the three best kicks in the team, and Damien Hardwick is setting them all up accross half back much like the Hawthorn side did when Hardwick was involved about five years ago with Hodge, Birchall, Ellis, Young, Guerra and Ladson all floating accross half back.
Richmond have sharpened up by foot as a result of putting their creators in the most important positions and they are also very strong around the stoppages hence their dramatic improvement.
In the last nine weeks, Richmond are ranked second for tackles, and third for contested posessions so they have added a real hardness to their game.
The main concern is efficiency going forward. In the past three weeks they have hit a target with just 38% of forward entries, and this emerging demon defence will bring them undone if they are that sloppy again.
It looms as a fascinating battle with two emerging midfields, one that is excellent inside with it's clearance and contest work (Richmond), and the other that appears to be emulating itself on Geelong with it's run and spread from the contest and numbers around the ball at all times (Melbourne).
Not co-incidentally Hawthorn and Geelong are the last two premiers and have revolutionised the game tactically in completely different ways.
There is a fair chance these two sides will have sustained success over a period of time so it's interesting the trends they are tending to follow.
I'm really warming to Dean Bailey. I reckon he is doing a wonderful job developing them and has developed a game plan to their strengths.
It is a hard game to split. Melbourne are a bit better at their best, but both are inconsistent as expected.
Throw in the fact Melbourne are returning from a humid night in Brisbane, whilst Richmond have one less day to prepare.
Last time these sides met, Melbourne won by 55 points. But they have 5 changes to their side since then, and conversely Richmond have 7 changes, so I wouldn't necessarily take a lot out of that.
As a rule, these sides match up well on each other but I'm tipping an upset of sorts this week. Melbourne have been up for a while, but I think Richmond can get on top in the middle with the Dees missing a couple of key clearance players.
Just a gut feeling also, but Melbourne might get a touch of reality, and by no means a cruel one, that although they are travelling along beautifully, they have a few more hurdles to cross before they become a top side and the odd lull is too be expected.
Expect one from the young Dees sunday against the plucky Tiges given they are coming off a tough road trip on a hard ground on a warm night.
The Gabba trip has taken plenty out of several sides this year, and expect it to happen again.
Richmond by 5 points
Preview- St.Kilda vs Port Adelaide - Round 19
St.Kilda vs Port Adelaide - Etihad Stadium - Sunday
St.Kilda - 3rd - 12-5-1 - 115.63%
Port Adelaide - 13th - 7-11 - 81.36%
Things have not gone to script over the past three weeks for the Saints who face a rejuvenated Port Adelaide side this Sunday in an important game.
St.Kilda have not won for a month and if they fail to do so this week, they could potentially fall out of the top four, a thought most would have deemed impossible for much of the season.
Port Adelaide on the other hand have found a new lease on life in recent weeks. A showdown victory followed by a gutsy come from behind win over Hawthorn has put Matthew Primus in the box seat to snare the coaching job long term.
One thing we are seeing from Port is some fight and spirit, not something we have been used to associating with them.
Generally as a rule they have been the poorest side at overhauling opposition leads. Once behind, they are usually no chance. And once challenged physically often they would just fall over.
But they have weathered some storms in the past fortnight and have come out of it with two victories. This needs to be the start of something for them going forward as they have some talented young players they can build with.
Tactically, Primus has delivered a couple of rippers since taking the job. His match ups last week were perfect. He managed to restrict Luke Hodge and Cyril Rioli, take Roughead out of the game and open the forward line up enough for Jay Schulz and Brett Ebert to cause headaches for the improving, yet vulnerable Hawks defence.
He will face similar challenges this week against a St.Kilda side that is struggling to find it's best form yet remains one of the competitions most difficult teams.
Sam Gilbert and Sam Fisher have been restricted over recent weeks, and this is really limiting St.Kilda's run.
Teams are also spreading St.Kilda's defenders and isolating them one on one where they can be shaky.
St.Kilda's defensive unit when functioning as a whole is outstanding, possibly the best the game has seen, but when the defenders are isolated they can be susceptible to quick ball movement and Essendon is a side that exploits that better then anyone has against St.Kilda lately.
Port Adelaide are capable of moving it quickly, although not to the same level, nor with the same precision as Essendon.
They also have a forward line that doesn't have the potency of Essendon although it is in good form.
Jay Schulz and Justin Westhoff are playing as well as they possibly ever have, and Ebert has a very good record against St.Kilda.
Expect Blake to get Schulz given Dawson's absence. Gwilt will probably get Ebert and Fisher should take Westhoff accross half back.
Steven Baker would have played on Robbie Grey, but expect Gram to more then likely get that gig.
St.Kilda's form is an interesting point of discussion. Yes their are some concerns, but it isn't quite as bad as people think. They were poor against Collingwood, I thought quite good, albeit lucky against Hawthorn and then they got pulled apart by an Essendon side that has had it's measure for a long time.
They have some things to sort out though. Firstly they need to get the defence working cohesively, and also up the pressure again through the middle.
St.Kilda last year were conceeding 40 Inside Fifties a game which is an all time record low. In the past month, teams have been punching through far more frequently so they need to tighten up again with their zone.
In attack, they found numerous avenues to goal when Riewoldt was out. They need to utilise these again as they have fallen into the habit of going to the superstar far too often.
A big game isn't far away for Nick, but St.Kilda have Schneider, Milne, Steven, Goddard and Montagna all as big contributors this season and Gram, Dal Santo, Peake and Gardiner can all push forward or deliver running goals if they just lift their eyes a bit when pushing into attack.
Koschitzke continues to struggle, but last week he was starved of chances after a promising display against the Hawks.
His form accross the season probably warrants omission, but St.Kilda can't win the flag if he doesn't stand up and contribute in September so they need to pick him.
They have their troubles with Port Adelaide, generally their fleet of runners in particular and smaller forward set up, but expect a turnaround in intensity for the Saints this week and if they lift in that area, they should be able to contain them and deliver a much needed four points.
Expect Carlisle to take Koschitzke, and whilst Trengove has put his hand up to play on Riewoldt, I reckon Chaplin will get first crack.
Kane Cornes will tag Dal Santo in all likelihood, and conversely Clinton Jones should get a stopping job on David Rodan who destroyed St.Kilda in Round 5.
Dean Brogan flew solo last week in the ruck last week, but he will get stiffer competition this week from Gardiner and McEvoy who have been solid.
Port Adelaide have found a bit of form, and will be in this game for a lot of the day, but St.Kilda should be stung on the back of some criticism and questions about their form and premiership chances.
After an even first half, expect St.Kilda to edge away and win the game comfortably.
St.Kilda by 25 points
St.Kilda - 3rd - 12-5-1 - 115.63%
Port Adelaide - 13th - 7-11 - 81.36%
Things have not gone to script over the past three weeks for the Saints who face a rejuvenated Port Adelaide side this Sunday in an important game.
St.Kilda have not won for a month and if they fail to do so this week, they could potentially fall out of the top four, a thought most would have deemed impossible for much of the season.
Port Adelaide on the other hand have found a new lease on life in recent weeks. A showdown victory followed by a gutsy come from behind win over Hawthorn has put Matthew Primus in the box seat to snare the coaching job long term.
One thing we are seeing from Port is some fight and spirit, not something we have been used to associating with them.
Generally as a rule they have been the poorest side at overhauling opposition leads. Once behind, they are usually no chance. And once challenged physically often they would just fall over.
But they have weathered some storms in the past fortnight and have come out of it with two victories. This needs to be the start of something for them going forward as they have some talented young players they can build with.
Tactically, Primus has delivered a couple of rippers since taking the job. His match ups last week were perfect. He managed to restrict Luke Hodge and Cyril Rioli, take Roughead out of the game and open the forward line up enough for Jay Schulz and Brett Ebert to cause headaches for the improving, yet vulnerable Hawks defence.
He will face similar challenges this week against a St.Kilda side that is struggling to find it's best form yet remains one of the competitions most difficult teams.
Sam Gilbert and Sam Fisher have been restricted over recent weeks, and this is really limiting St.Kilda's run.
Teams are also spreading St.Kilda's defenders and isolating them one on one where they can be shaky.
St.Kilda's defensive unit when functioning as a whole is outstanding, possibly the best the game has seen, but when the defenders are isolated they can be susceptible to quick ball movement and Essendon is a side that exploits that better then anyone has against St.Kilda lately.
Port Adelaide are capable of moving it quickly, although not to the same level, nor with the same precision as Essendon.
They also have a forward line that doesn't have the potency of Essendon although it is in good form.
Jay Schulz and Justin Westhoff are playing as well as they possibly ever have, and Ebert has a very good record against St.Kilda.
Expect Blake to get Schulz given Dawson's absence. Gwilt will probably get Ebert and Fisher should take Westhoff accross half back.
Steven Baker would have played on Robbie Grey, but expect Gram to more then likely get that gig.
St.Kilda's form is an interesting point of discussion. Yes their are some concerns, but it isn't quite as bad as people think. They were poor against Collingwood, I thought quite good, albeit lucky against Hawthorn and then they got pulled apart by an Essendon side that has had it's measure for a long time.
They have some things to sort out though. Firstly they need to get the defence working cohesively, and also up the pressure again through the middle.
St.Kilda last year were conceeding 40 Inside Fifties a game which is an all time record low. In the past month, teams have been punching through far more frequently so they need to tighten up again with their zone.
In attack, they found numerous avenues to goal when Riewoldt was out. They need to utilise these again as they have fallen into the habit of going to the superstar far too often.
A big game isn't far away for Nick, but St.Kilda have Schneider, Milne, Steven, Goddard and Montagna all as big contributors this season and Gram, Dal Santo, Peake and Gardiner can all push forward or deliver running goals if they just lift their eyes a bit when pushing into attack.
Koschitzke continues to struggle, but last week he was starved of chances after a promising display against the Hawks.
His form accross the season probably warrants omission, but St.Kilda can't win the flag if he doesn't stand up and contribute in September so they need to pick him.
They have their troubles with Port Adelaide, generally their fleet of runners in particular and smaller forward set up, but expect a turnaround in intensity for the Saints this week and if they lift in that area, they should be able to contain them and deliver a much needed four points.
Expect Carlisle to take Koschitzke, and whilst Trengove has put his hand up to play on Riewoldt, I reckon Chaplin will get first crack.
Kane Cornes will tag Dal Santo in all likelihood, and conversely Clinton Jones should get a stopping job on David Rodan who destroyed St.Kilda in Round 5.
Dean Brogan flew solo last week in the ruck last week, but he will get stiffer competition this week from Gardiner and McEvoy who have been solid.
Port Adelaide have found a bit of form, and will be in this game for a lot of the day, but St.Kilda should be stung on the back of some criticism and questions about their form and premiership chances.
After an even first half, expect St.Kilda to edge away and win the game comfortably.
St.Kilda by 25 points
Westcoast vs Brisbane - Round 19
Westcoast vs Brisbane - Subiaco - Saturday Night
Westcoast 16th - 4-14 - 76.32%
Brisbane 15th - 5-13 - 79.61%
On the night where the competitions two top sides lock horns at the MCG, a different battle will be waged accross the nullabor in WA.
The competitions two biggest dissapointments of 2010 will fight out to see who wins the Wooden Spoon this season.
For the Eagles it will be the first in the 24 season history of the club, whilst for the Lions, it will be their first since 1998.
Westcoast were deplorable last week against their cross town rivals, in one of the worst performances of a terrible season.
Brisbane on the other hand tried hard, had their moments but just butchered the ball far too much to topple the talented young demons.
Foot skills is the one issue that needs real focus here. These two sides last week demonstrated probably the poorest example of field kicking I have ever seen.
Brisbane had 85 kicks in the first half, 47 of them were innefective. Westcoast also went around at 55% for the afternoon in their game.
It is a sad sight to see when clubs are so bereft of confidence that they miss the most basic targets by foot.
The Eagles kicking efficiency for the season ranks 15th, whilst the Lions are last accross the past six weeks.
This has the potential to be one uguly game of footy, for anyone who isn't glued to events at the MCG.
Brendan Fevola predictably has been put away for surgery and will miss the rest of the season, he has been sore for a long time, and has fought on quite bravely in my oppinion, but he was a spent force as early as Round 15.
Jonathan Brown on the other hand seems to be tracking along okay. Whilst not at 100% he has been brave for the past three weeks and looms as a potential match winner.
Last week was a familiar story for the Lions. The kids looked ok, some of the veterans look tired, and the new recruits failed to deliver.
As predicted they finished stronger, but just lacked the early season polish to nail the Demons in the end.
They also lack a bit of pace through the middle and might struggle on the wider expands of Subiaco.
Sherman came back in, and showed some alright signs, but must string it together and Aaron Cornelius must surely get another go now with Fev put out pasture.
Brennan, Rich and Rischitelli are the keys for Brisbane in this game. They can kick long and break the lines, they should be able to set up for the Lions who will need to be long and direct, as their skills will bring them undone if they overuse the ball and get forced wide on the large Subiaco wings.
The Eagles have one of the competitions best forwards in super form at present and it's hard to find a match up.
Mark LeCras has kicked 58 goals for the season in a rubbish team and must surely be marching towards the All Australian selection he deserved last year.
Looking through the Lions line up, I think Joel Patfull will get first crack at him, outside of that maybe Staker would get a go.
It's a massive headache for Brisbane.
Merrett might get Kennedy who has been solid as well, or perhaps Lynch, with Staker or Patfull getting Kennedy dependant upon which one is asigned to Lecras.
One thing the Eagles have done well all year is score once in attack. They leak in defence, they are slow and sloppy in the middle, but they are ranked third for scores once inside fifty.
Brisbane's defence has fought hard, but without Drummond, and with Merrett out of form, they do look poor.
Westcoast have started well in their last five games at Subiaco, and the Lions have won only four first quarters this year and conceded five goals on average in every first term this year.
If Westcoast jump them, as shaky as they are, they will hold off the Lions who don't have the capacity to overwhelm sides at present with their lack of form and conditioning.
Schofield could possibly get the job on Jonathan Brown which is a huge ask, but the Lions once again need more goal kicking options, an age old problem for this team.
The report is bleak for both teams, but so is the situation.
For the Eagles it's about a total rebuild, whilst for the Lions it's about getting out of this season as soon as possible and re-grouping towards what should be a better 2011.
Right now though, the Eagles look the goods here.
Westcoast are a far better side at home and recent Subiaco efforts against visiting teams have been highly competitive.
A similar effort will be enough here and they will put themselves in the mix once more to avoid an unwanted accolade, and perhaps confine the once mighty Lions to that fate.
Westcoast by 16 points
Westcoast 16th - 4-14 - 76.32%
Brisbane 15th - 5-13 - 79.61%
On the night where the competitions two top sides lock horns at the MCG, a different battle will be waged accross the nullabor in WA.
The competitions two biggest dissapointments of 2010 will fight out to see who wins the Wooden Spoon this season.
For the Eagles it will be the first in the 24 season history of the club, whilst for the Lions, it will be their first since 1998.
Westcoast were deplorable last week against their cross town rivals, in one of the worst performances of a terrible season.
Brisbane on the other hand tried hard, had their moments but just butchered the ball far too much to topple the talented young demons.
Foot skills is the one issue that needs real focus here. These two sides last week demonstrated probably the poorest example of field kicking I have ever seen.
Brisbane had 85 kicks in the first half, 47 of them were innefective. Westcoast also went around at 55% for the afternoon in their game.
It is a sad sight to see when clubs are so bereft of confidence that they miss the most basic targets by foot.
The Eagles kicking efficiency for the season ranks 15th, whilst the Lions are last accross the past six weeks.
This has the potential to be one uguly game of footy, for anyone who isn't glued to events at the MCG.
Brendan Fevola predictably has been put away for surgery and will miss the rest of the season, he has been sore for a long time, and has fought on quite bravely in my oppinion, but he was a spent force as early as Round 15.
Jonathan Brown on the other hand seems to be tracking along okay. Whilst not at 100% he has been brave for the past three weeks and looms as a potential match winner.
Last week was a familiar story for the Lions. The kids looked ok, some of the veterans look tired, and the new recruits failed to deliver.
As predicted they finished stronger, but just lacked the early season polish to nail the Demons in the end.
They also lack a bit of pace through the middle and might struggle on the wider expands of Subiaco.
Sherman came back in, and showed some alright signs, but must string it together and Aaron Cornelius must surely get another go now with Fev put out pasture.
Brennan, Rich and Rischitelli are the keys for Brisbane in this game. They can kick long and break the lines, they should be able to set up for the Lions who will need to be long and direct, as their skills will bring them undone if they overuse the ball and get forced wide on the large Subiaco wings.
The Eagles have one of the competitions best forwards in super form at present and it's hard to find a match up.
Mark LeCras has kicked 58 goals for the season in a rubbish team and must surely be marching towards the All Australian selection he deserved last year.
Looking through the Lions line up, I think Joel Patfull will get first crack at him, outside of that maybe Staker would get a go.
It's a massive headache for Brisbane.
Merrett might get Kennedy who has been solid as well, or perhaps Lynch, with Staker or Patfull getting Kennedy dependant upon which one is asigned to Lecras.
One thing the Eagles have done well all year is score once in attack. They leak in defence, they are slow and sloppy in the middle, but they are ranked third for scores once inside fifty.
Brisbane's defence has fought hard, but without Drummond, and with Merrett out of form, they do look poor.
Westcoast have started well in their last five games at Subiaco, and the Lions have won only four first quarters this year and conceded five goals on average in every first term this year.
If Westcoast jump them, as shaky as they are, they will hold off the Lions who don't have the capacity to overwhelm sides at present with their lack of form and conditioning.
Schofield could possibly get the job on Jonathan Brown which is a huge ask, but the Lions once again need more goal kicking options, an age old problem for this team.
The report is bleak for both teams, but so is the situation.
For the Eagles it's about a total rebuild, whilst for the Lions it's about getting out of this season as soon as possible and re-grouping towards what should be a better 2011.
Right now though, the Eagles look the goods here.
Westcoast are a far better side at home and recent Subiaco efforts against visiting teams have been highly competitive.
A similar effort will be enough here and they will put themselves in the mix once more to avoid an unwanted accolade, and perhaps confine the once mighty Lions to that fate.
Westcoast by 16 points
ALL AUSTRALIAN TEAM
EARLY ALL AUSTRALIAN AT THE END OF ROUND 18
This is how I would select the All Australian team right now
B: Sam Gilbert (St.Kilda), Brian Lake (West.B), Nick Malceski (Syd)
HB: Luke Hodge (Hawks) ,Harry Taylor (Geelong), Brendan Goddard (St.Kilda)
C: Leigh Montagna (St.Kilda), Dane Swann (Collingwood), Paul Chapman (Geelong)
HF: Steve Johnson (Geelong), Matthew Pavlich (Fremantle), Adam Cooney (Western Bulldogs)
FF: Mark LeCras(Westcoast), Jack Riewoldt (Richmond), Barry Hall (Western Bulldogs)
R: Aaron Sandilands (Fremantle), Gary Ablett(Geelong), Lenny Hayes (St.Kilda)
I: Mark Jamar (Melbourne), Joel Selwood (Geelong), Harry O'Brien (Collingwood), Brett Deledio (Richmond)
Unlucky: David Mundy (Fremantle), Jarrod Harbrow (West.B), Brad Green (Melb), Alan Didak (Collingwood), Stephen Milne (St.Kilda), Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood), Matthew Boyd (West.B), Jimmy Bartel (Geelong)
This is how I would select the All Australian team right now
B: Sam Gilbert (St.Kilda), Brian Lake (West.B), Nick Malceski (Syd)
HB: Luke Hodge (Hawks) ,Harry Taylor (Geelong), Brendan Goddard (St.Kilda)
C: Leigh Montagna (St.Kilda), Dane Swann (Collingwood), Paul Chapman (Geelong)
HF: Steve Johnson (Geelong), Matthew Pavlich (Fremantle), Adam Cooney (Western Bulldogs)
FF: Mark LeCras(Westcoast), Jack Riewoldt (Richmond), Barry Hall (Western Bulldogs)
R: Aaron Sandilands (Fremantle), Gary Ablett(Geelong), Lenny Hayes (St.Kilda)
I: Mark Jamar (Melbourne), Joel Selwood (Geelong), Harry O'Brien (Collingwood), Brett Deledio (Richmond)
Unlucky: David Mundy (Fremantle), Jarrod Harbrow (West.B), Brad Green (Melb), Alan Didak (Collingwood), Stephen Milne (St.Kilda), Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood), Matthew Boyd (West.B), Jimmy Bartel (Geelong)
Geelong vs Collingwood - Round 19
Geelong vs Collingwood - MCG - Saturday Night
Geelong 2nd - 14-4 - 146.90%
Collingwood 1st - 14-3-1 - 141.99%
Saturday night at the MCG sees one of the most anticipated home and away games in modern times.
On the evidence of 2010 the competition's two best sides will lock horns, both in super form, both close to full strength and in front of a thumping crowd at the home of footy!
It is nights like this that encapsulate all that is fantastic about the game.
Geelong's biggest ever home crowd was 87,000 at the MCG in 1989. I will be very dissapointed if this doesn't eclipse that mark as the Cats are the competition's most brilliant and attractive side, and Collingwood supporters are at fever pitch with the phenomenal form of their boys at present.
Bartel and Podsiadly will return to the fold for Geelong this week leaving only Max Rooke unavailable from their best 22.
The inclusions pose a pleasing dilemma for Geelong, as they ponder how to structure their best team with basically a full talent pool available.
The key area of focus for them remains the big man stocks. Sadly I think Mark Blake is destined to miss out on another finals campaign.
Blake has done nothing wrong in his time with the Cats, but I feel the structure of the side functions better with Hawkins as the second ruckmen.
Blake and Hawkins shared ruck duties to great affect earlier in the season and with Ottens back it should be Blake who draws the short straw.
With Podsiadly stepping into the fold they have added one tall to their squad from last year, and they will be too top heavy if they carry Mooney, Blake, Ottens, Hawkins and J Pod into the same side.
Podsiadly provides forward line depth, whilst Hawkins can work around the ground with greater affect then Blake and hence gets the nod.
Bartel needs to slot back in and perhaps Byrnes or Wojinski are the vulnerable two.
I like Wojinski but he has always seemed to hover around the 18th to 22nd selected player each week and would be vulnerable given his up and down form.
Byrnes was dropped a fortnight ago but is a real talent so it's tough for the Cats, but it's a problem most clubs would prey to have.
Collingwood are another side that fortunately does have that very same problem.
Heath Shaw and Simon Prestigiacomo are set to return this week posing slection headaches for Malthouse and co.
Presti will logically replace Nathan Brown who came in last week, and Shaw will most likely come in for the injured Wellingham but the query is when the Pies are at full strength, who goes out for Wellingham who has been outstanding this year?
Throw in the fact that Fraser, Medhurst and Anthony all played well in the VFL last week and Collingwood are very healthy at present.
Jarryd Blair and Tyson Goldsack are probably the two most vulnerable players in that side.
Both have been very good, but Goldsack is similar to Maxwell and Blair is a young man who has had one or two quiet games as expected since debut and he will be the one most likely to fall out.
In regards to this contest it promises to be truelly mouth watering.
The midfield battle will be tremendous. Ablett, Bartel, Selwood, Enright, Ling, Corey, Kelly and Chapman vs Swan, Pendlebury, Ball, Beams, Thomas, Didak, Johnson and Sidebottom.
On paper, Geelong has the edge, but that pies group is so even accross the board and in super form so it's a fantastic and crucial battle.
Down back Ben Reid will probably get Mooney, with Prestigiacomo taking Podsiadly. Toovey will get Stokes with Shaw on Varcoe, and perhaps Harry O'Brien will get the big job on the superstar Stevie Johnson.
Both are on All Australian pace at present and that is one of the match ups of the night.
At the other end expect Harry Taylor to run with Travis Cloke, Scarlett will make life hell for Chris Dawes and Tom Lonergan will pick up the resting ruckmen.
Josh Hunt will go with Davis, Mackie to take Thomas and Milburn will get McAffer.
Looking at these match ups it's not hard to determine why these sides are so strong.
We know all about Geelong, but Collingwood have improved by at least 20% on last season.
The facts are undeniable. Wellingham, Reid, Sidebottom, Beams, McAffer, Leigh Brown and Dale Thomas have improved out of sight. And when you add Jolly and Ball to the line up they have improved more then any of their rivals.
This Saturday night though is the litmus test to end all others. Win this, and the Pies are outright flag favourites.
Collingwood defeated St.Kilda three weeks ago in a win that shook a significant monkey off their back, and Geelong is the other side that has well and truelly had their measure (and most other sides for that matter).
The result of this match is significant four weeks out from september in terms of confidence.
Collingwood must walk away from this even in defeat, with a belief they can beat Geelong in a final.
If Collingwood belt them, watch the bandwagon overflow, if Geelong belt Collingwood, then I doubt they can win the flag if they face the Cats in september.
If it is close either way, Collingwood could walk away feeling they are close enough if good enough when it matters most.
I can't see either side getting hold of the other, and Collingwood are in the more complete form, but you know the Cats will lift for this.
Last week was the most complete performance by Geelong in about 12 rounds and the run and spread and slick ball movement was a brilliant as ever before.
Collingwood must use their run and create goals in general play to beat the Cats.
You do not beat Geelong by just driving the ball quickly inside fifty, you must run it in there, be patient and create stoppage goals, and crumbing goals in attack.
Geelong concede less goals from marks then any other side, and concede the fewest scores once inside fifty.
St.Kilda, Adelaide, Carlton and Fremantle all beat Geelong this year through plenty of goals from runners. Didak, Thomas, Beams, Sidebottom, Davis and Swan need to hit the scoreboard for them to win.
If the Cats pressure Collingwood accross half back they can force them to kick long inside fifty, rather then running it in, and if that happens they have got them again.
Collingwood conversely have scored more often once inside fifty then anyone else in the past eight weeks, so they are playing the way they need to play to win this game.
The Pies have been beaten in clearances the past four weeks, despite their dominance and whilst they are able to overcome that against certain sides, Geelong will not allow it.
The Cats have averaged 114 more posessions a game then Collingwood in their last three meetings and they will control the tempo if they get first hands on it.
For Geelong this is important, but for Collingwood it's the biggest game of the year so far, so expect them to be breathing fire early.
Collingwood need to be patient, they need to be sharp but at the same time they must play with the freedom they have for the last six weeks. It's a delicate balancing act.
Few clubs are hotter then Collingwood right now, but Geelong lift for these games and my tip has changed about 10 times this week.
But right now my gut feel says the Pies face the best chance they have in a long time to beat this Cats team, if they don't do it saturday night, they never will. Especially in September.
Collingwood by 2 points
Geelong 2nd - 14-4 - 146.90%
Collingwood 1st - 14-3-1 - 141.99%
Saturday night at the MCG sees one of the most anticipated home and away games in modern times.
On the evidence of 2010 the competition's two best sides will lock horns, both in super form, both close to full strength and in front of a thumping crowd at the home of footy!
It is nights like this that encapsulate all that is fantastic about the game.
Geelong's biggest ever home crowd was 87,000 at the MCG in 1989. I will be very dissapointed if this doesn't eclipse that mark as the Cats are the competition's most brilliant and attractive side, and Collingwood supporters are at fever pitch with the phenomenal form of their boys at present.
Bartel and Podsiadly will return to the fold for Geelong this week leaving only Max Rooke unavailable from their best 22.
The inclusions pose a pleasing dilemma for Geelong, as they ponder how to structure their best team with basically a full talent pool available.
The key area of focus for them remains the big man stocks. Sadly I think Mark Blake is destined to miss out on another finals campaign.
Blake has done nothing wrong in his time with the Cats, but I feel the structure of the side functions better with Hawkins as the second ruckmen.
Blake and Hawkins shared ruck duties to great affect earlier in the season and with Ottens back it should be Blake who draws the short straw.
With Podsiadly stepping into the fold they have added one tall to their squad from last year, and they will be too top heavy if they carry Mooney, Blake, Ottens, Hawkins and J Pod into the same side.
Podsiadly provides forward line depth, whilst Hawkins can work around the ground with greater affect then Blake and hence gets the nod.
Bartel needs to slot back in and perhaps Byrnes or Wojinski are the vulnerable two.
I like Wojinski but he has always seemed to hover around the 18th to 22nd selected player each week and would be vulnerable given his up and down form.
Byrnes was dropped a fortnight ago but is a real talent so it's tough for the Cats, but it's a problem most clubs would prey to have.
Collingwood are another side that fortunately does have that very same problem.
Heath Shaw and Simon Prestigiacomo are set to return this week posing slection headaches for Malthouse and co.
Presti will logically replace Nathan Brown who came in last week, and Shaw will most likely come in for the injured Wellingham but the query is when the Pies are at full strength, who goes out for Wellingham who has been outstanding this year?
Throw in the fact that Fraser, Medhurst and Anthony all played well in the VFL last week and Collingwood are very healthy at present.
Jarryd Blair and Tyson Goldsack are probably the two most vulnerable players in that side.
Both have been very good, but Goldsack is similar to Maxwell and Blair is a young man who has had one or two quiet games as expected since debut and he will be the one most likely to fall out.
In regards to this contest it promises to be truelly mouth watering.
The midfield battle will be tremendous. Ablett, Bartel, Selwood, Enright, Ling, Corey, Kelly and Chapman vs Swan, Pendlebury, Ball, Beams, Thomas, Didak, Johnson and Sidebottom.
On paper, Geelong has the edge, but that pies group is so even accross the board and in super form so it's a fantastic and crucial battle.
Down back Ben Reid will probably get Mooney, with Prestigiacomo taking Podsiadly. Toovey will get Stokes with Shaw on Varcoe, and perhaps Harry O'Brien will get the big job on the superstar Stevie Johnson.
Both are on All Australian pace at present and that is one of the match ups of the night.
At the other end expect Harry Taylor to run with Travis Cloke, Scarlett will make life hell for Chris Dawes and Tom Lonergan will pick up the resting ruckmen.
Josh Hunt will go with Davis, Mackie to take Thomas and Milburn will get McAffer.
Looking at these match ups it's not hard to determine why these sides are so strong.
We know all about Geelong, but Collingwood have improved by at least 20% on last season.
The facts are undeniable. Wellingham, Reid, Sidebottom, Beams, McAffer, Leigh Brown and Dale Thomas have improved out of sight. And when you add Jolly and Ball to the line up they have improved more then any of their rivals.
This Saturday night though is the litmus test to end all others. Win this, and the Pies are outright flag favourites.
Collingwood defeated St.Kilda three weeks ago in a win that shook a significant monkey off their back, and Geelong is the other side that has well and truelly had their measure (and most other sides for that matter).
The result of this match is significant four weeks out from september in terms of confidence.
Collingwood must walk away from this even in defeat, with a belief they can beat Geelong in a final.
If Collingwood belt them, watch the bandwagon overflow, if Geelong belt Collingwood, then I doubt they can win the flag if they face the Cats in september.
If it is close either way, Collingwood could walk away feeling they are close enough if good enough when it matters most.
I can't see either side getting hold of the other, and Collingwood are in the more complete form, but you know the Cats will lift for this.
Last week was the most complete performance by Geelong in about 12 rounds and the run and spread and slick ball movement was a brilliant as ever before.
Collingwood must use their run and create goals in general play to beat the Cats.
You do not beat Geelong by just driving the ball quickly inside fifty, you must run it in there, be patient and create stoppage goals, and crumbing goals in attack.
Geelong concede less goals from marks then any other side, and concede the fewest scores once inside fifty.
St.Kilda, Adelaide, Carlton and Fremantle all beat Geelong this year through plenty of goals from runners. Didak, Thomas, Beams, Sidebottom, Davis and Swan need to hit the scoreboard for them to win.
If the Cats pressure Collingwood accross half back they can force them to kick long inside fifty, rather then running it in, and if that happens they have got them again.
Collingwood conversely have scored more often once inside fifty then anyone else in the past eight weeks, so they are playing the way they need to play to win this game.
The Pies have been beaten in clearances the past four weeks, despite their dominance and whilst they are able to overcome that against certain sides, Geelong will not allow it.
The Cats have averaged 114 more posessions a game then Collingwood in their last three meetings and they will control the tempo if they get first hands on it.
For Geelong this is important, but for Collingwood it's the biggest game of the year so far, so expect them to be breathing fire early.
Collingwood need to be patient, they need to be sharp but at the same time they must play with the freedom they have for the last six weeks. It's a delicate balancing act.
Few clubs are hotter then Collingwood right now, but Geelong lift for these games and my tip has changed about 10 times this week.
But right now my gut feel says the Pies face the best chance they have in a long time to beat this Cats team, if they don't do it saturday night, they never will. Especially in September.
Collingwood by 2 points
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Preview - Sydney vs Hawthorn - Round 19
Sydney vs Hawthorn - Saturday - SCG
Sydney - 8th - 9-9 - 101.22%
Hawthorn - 6th - 9-8-1 - 106.71%
Sydney and Hawthorn will lock horns on Saturday afternoon in a traditional eight point game.
The loser faces a battle to remain in the eight, the winner would appear a good chance to host a final in the first week.
For the Hawks it is a case of deja vu from last week. They once again face a bogey side on a traditional bogey ground.
Hawthorn have only produced one victory from their previous eight trips to the Sydney Cricket Ground but did knock the Swans off in a tight game earlier this season, admittetdly in Melbourne.
They enter this game on the back of a dissapointing and potentially costly loss to Port Adelaide at Aami Stadium last week.
With that loss went any chance of top four, but they need to make sure they bounce back this week and keep themselves above the likes of Melbourne and the Kangaroos coming from below.
Cyril Rioli will miss the next two weeks on the back of a suspension for an uncharacteristic snap just before three quarter time.
His loss will hurt them as he has added genuine pace to a midfield that whilst classy and tough, did lack a bit of leg speed.
Shaun Burgoyne has contributed to that as well but Rioli has been a huge factor in their revival.
Against Sydney, a side that can be susceptible to line breaking runners they will feel his absence.
On the positive for Hawthorn, they have a large host of in form runners with the likes of Birchall, Mitchell, Ellis, Young, Bateman, Burgoyne, Lewis and Hodge all playing good consistent football.
Hodge was well held last week, and will be keen to atone on Saturday, so expect a big game from the brownlow contender.
Franklin appears in really good touch, but needs to keep his head. He has given away 7 free kicks and 5 fifty metre penalties in the last two weeks and that is the kind of thing that can cost a team games.
His movement, marking and presence are as prominent as ever, he just needs to be a touch smarter.
Roughead had a quiet one last week after a solid couple of weeks, and Osborne and Young are providing plenty of goals in general play.
Their defence last week had it's worst collective game in a while with Gilham, Stratton and Murphy all lowering their colours but this Sydney forward line has struggled to hit the scoreboard over recent weeks and whilst tricky shouldn't stretch them too much.
Simon Taylor got through his VFL game well last week but I'd expect the club to persist with the Renouf/Skipper combination at least for the time being as it offers them far more versatility around the ground.
An important area of focus is contested ball. Hawthorn have averaged 15 more contested posessions then their opponents over the last six weeks and this is also an area the swans thrive on.
Sydney concede the fewest stoppage first posessions of any club, but have slipped badly in the past fortnight.
In the last two weeks Sydney have also averaged 56 tackles a game which is about 9 below their season average.
They need to rediscover their trademark pressure skills otherwise the season will dissapear before they know it.
Footskills have also fallen away for the Swans. They conceeded 9 goals from turnovers against the slick Cats, and 10 against the Dees the week before.
Hawthorn are another team with very good foot skills and they will slaughter Sydney if they falter again.
Adam Goodes remains a shining light for the Swans, and Mcglynn will be keen to impress against his old side.
The nuggety onballer/forward has been in very impressive form this season and will loom as a key man to restrict for the Hawks.
Jesse White struggled again last week as the Swans continue to miss Daniel Bradshaw but he remains the best option and they have to persist and hope he turns the corner.
Much like Hawthorn, Sydney generate a lot of run off half back through Nick Malceski, Tadhg Kennelly and Marty Mattner.
All three of those have been quite lately so the order of the day will be to free them up and release them into space.
Ted Richards and Heath Grundy appear set to get the big jobs on Franklin and Roughead, and they are really feeling the absence of Lewis Roberts Thompson and Craig Bolton.
They need to drop a few numbers back as they are both very dangerous match ups for the Swans.
Mattner should get Osborne, although Osborne might be given a negatting role on Malceski as he has done similar in recent weeks to good affect.
Gibson or Stratton will more then likely take Goodes. Whilst Gilham will take White and I suspect Guerra might get Ryan O'Keefe.
Moore might tag Hodge, or perhaps Mitchell in midfield but looking accross the board, this Swans side is a bit younger in 2010, and I think lacks the spread of options accross the board to match it with the competitions better sides.
Hawthorn despite last week's loss are still a top side and I think Franklin, Roughead, Hodge, Lewis, Mitchell, Young, Osborne etc offer too much talent spread for Sydney to contain.
If they can tie up Hawthorn in the clearances and start to control the tempo they can bottle them up on the smaller ground which they do play a lot better then ANZ Stadium.
However I don't think Sydney are going well enough to do it at this stage and are in grave danger of missing the finals.
Hawthorn on the otherhand will be safe come Saturday Night.
Hawthorn by 21 points
Sydney - 8th - 9-9 - 101.22%
Hawthorn - 6th - 9-8-1 - 106.71%
Sydney and Hawthorn will lock horns on Saturday afternoon in a traditional eight point game.
The loser faces a battle to remain in the eight, the winner would appear a good chance to host a final in the first week.
For the Hawks it is a case of deja vu from last week. They once again face a bogey side on a traditional bogey ground.
Hawthorn have only produced one victory from their previous eight trips to the Sydney Cricket Ground but did knock the Swans off in a tight game earlier this season, admittetdly in Melbourne.
They enter this game on the back of a dissapointing and potentially costly loss to Port Adelaide at Aami Stadium last week.
With that loss went any chance of top four, but they need to make sure they bounce back this week and keep themselves above the likes of Melbourne and the Kangaroos coming from below.
Cyril Rioli will miss the next two weeks on the back of a suspension for an uncharacteristic snap just before three quarter time.
His loss will hurt them as he has added genuine pace to a midfield that whilst classy and tough, did lack a bit of leg speed.
Shaun Burgoyne has contributed to that as well but Rioli has been a huge factor in their revival.
Against Sydney, a side that can be susceptible to line breaking runners they will feel his absence.
On the positive for Hawthorn, they have a large host of in form runners with the likes of Birchall, Mitchell, Ellis, Young, Bateman, Burgoyne, Lewis and Hodge all playing good consistent football.
Hodge was well held last week, and will be keen to atone on Saturday, so expect a big game from the brownlow contender.
Franklin appears in really good touch, but needs to keep his head. He has given away 7 free kicks and 5 fifty metre penalties in the last two weeks and that is the kind of thing that can cost a team games.
His movement, marking and presence are as prominent as ever, he just needs to be a touch smarter.
Roughead had a quiet one last week after a solid couple of weeks, and Osborne and Young are providing plenty of goals in general play.
Their defence last week had it's worst collective game in a while with Gilham, Stratton and Murphy all lowering their colours but this Sydney forward line has struggled to hit the scoreboard over recent weeks and whilst tricky shouldn't stretch them too much.
Simon Taylor got through his VFL game well last week but I'd expect the club to persist with the Renouf/Skipper combination at least for the time being as it offers them far more versatility around the ground.
An important area of focus is contested ball. Hawthorn have averaged 15 more contested posessions then their opponents over the last six weeks and this is also an area the swans thrive on.
Sydney concede the fewest stoppage first posessions of any club, but have slipped badly in the past fortnight.
In the last two weeks Sydney have also averaged 56 tackles a game which is about 9 below their season average.
They need to rediscover their trademark pressure skills otherwise the season will dissapear before they know it.
Footskills have also fallen away for the Swans. They conceeded 9 goals from turnovers against the slick Cats, and 10 against the Dees the week before.
Hawthorn are another team with very good foot skills and they will slaughter Sydney if they falter again.
Adam Goodes remains a shining light for the Swans, and Mcglynn will be keen to impress against his old side.
The nuggety onballer/forward has been in very impressive form this season and will loom as a key man to restrict for the Hawks.
Jesse White struggled again last week as the Swans continue to miss Daniel Bradshaw but he remains the best option and they have to persist and hope he turns the corner.
Much like Hawthorn, Sydney generate a lot of run off half back through Nick Malceski, Tadhg Kennelly and Marty Mattner.
All three of those have been quite lately so the order of the day will be to free them up and release them into space.
Ted Richards and Heath Grundy appear set to get the big jobs on Franklin and Roughead, and they are really feeling the absence of Lewis Roberts Thompson and Craig Bolton.
They need to drop a few numbers back as they are both very dangerous match ups for the Swans.
Mattner should get Osborne, although Osborne might be given a negatting role on Malceski as he has done similar in recent weeks to good affect.
Gibson or Stratton will more then likely take Goodes. Whilst Gilham will take White and I suspect Guerra might get Ryan O'Keefe.
Moore might tag Hodge, or perhaps Mitchell in midfield but looking accross the board, this Swans side is a bit younger in 2010, and I think lacks the spread of options accross the board to match it with the competitions better sides.
Hawthorn despite last week's loss are still a top side and I think Franklin, Roughead, Hodge, Lewis, Mitchell, Young, Osborne etc offer too much talent spread for Sydney to contain.
If they can tie up Hawthorn in the clearances and start to control the tempo they can bottle them up on the smaller ground which they do play a lot better then ANZ Stadium.
However I don't think Sydney are going well enough to do it at this stage and are in grave danger of missing the finals.
Hawthorn on the otherhand will be safe come Saturday Night.
Hawthorn by 21 points
Preview - North Melbourne vs Fremantle - Round 19
North Melbourne vs Fremantle - Etihad Stadium - Saturday
North Melbourne -9th- 8-10 - 83.25%
Fremantle -5th - 12-6 - 115.62%
Etihad Stadium will play host to a game of great significance for both the Kangaroos and Dockers on Saturday and promises to be an intriguing contest.
If Fremantle win this, the lingering hope of top four remains alive, whilst if the Kangaroos win, then all of a sudden finals could be on the radar.
Both results would be a tremendous achievement given where these two clubs were viewed at the start of the year.
Brad Scott and Mark Harvey are in many ways the two coaches of the year. Throw in Mick Malthouse and probably Damien Hardwick and I reckon you have your nominations.
Scott in his first year at the helm has produced some great results for the Kangaroos, but the one concern is the tendency for them to become totally uncompetitive when the tide turns against them.
Last week they trailled by 13 points late in the third term and ended up losing by 71. This has been a familiar story in many games this year but it must be remembered that there are quite a few players out of their side at present through injury.
What they are doing though is developing a nice midfield group, some quality key backs and a future gun centre half forward in Lachie Hansen.
It's all about future seasons for North Melbourne and a finals berth this year would be a bonus, but in saying that, they are only one game out at the moment with both Sydney and Carlton struggling.
Fremantle have lost their last two at Etihad and are also missing a host of players so North Melbourne will face a real opportunity this week.
Fremantle are a far better side then North Melbourne, but they are still vulnerable on the road, and with Tarrant, Ballantyne, Mayne, Barlow and Palmer out of the side, the dockers are missing some real quality.
Lachie Hansen is one of the real improvers this season, and Aaron Edwards has had a positive impact since his inclusion to the side.
He still has his critics Edwards, but he provides a contest, usually snags a couple of goals each week and is deceptively quick on the lead.
He isn't a star but he is clearly in their best 22.
Lindsay Thomas is the type of player who needs a few weeks to build his momentum back after a spell, so expect a better showing from him, hopefully Ben Warren can return as well, and the spread of goals from midfield options has been a positive.
Greenwood, Swallow, Harvey and co are all capable of pushing forward and hitting the scoreboard.
Fremantle have had no problems sharing the goals around either, 24 majors last week for the Dockers who are the third highest scoring team in the competition.
Defensively they can be vulnerable, and the absence of Chris Tarrant was a clear issue last week, with no solid match up for Mark Lecras.
Mcpharlin and Grover are good talls, but they can be exposed by quicker leading forwards so Thomas and Edwards are two who could give them some grief.
Hayden Ballantyne's absence will be an issue for them as well but the improved form of Hill, Fyfe, Hasleby and Michael Johnson still makes Freo very dangerous in attack.
They are statistically the best team in the comp for scoring once inside fifty so the Roos will need to apply the sort of pressure on the ball carrier that has brought the Dockers undone a couple of times in the past month if they are to keep their season alive.
The Dockers won the contested posession count for the first time in eight weeks last week to arrest an alarming slump, so that will be good for the confidence.
North Melbourne conversely are 15th for contested posessions and 14th for clearances in the competition this year.
However they are the second best hit out team in the comp, with McIntosh and Goldstein capable of making life difficult for Aaron Sandilands.
Both of these sides play on frequently, and are attacking free flowing teams who win a lot of uncontested footy.
Six of the Roos eight wins this year have come at Etihad Stadium, whilst conversely three of Fremantle's six losses have been at the venue.
Grover should play on Edwards, McPharlin will take Hansen and Roger Hayden is the key man to get third up at contests and help out where necessary.
Michael Firrito could get the most important job in the game, and run with Matthew Pavlich.
He has the body size to match him and has run through the middle so should have the tank as well.
Pav was superb last week and holds the key for Fremantle.
North Melbourne's record against top sides is poor, but with the utmost respect to Fremantle, they don't quite have the same aura as the rest of the comp's top echelon at this stage.
And whilst the Roos are undermanned, Fremantle's outs are structurally of greater significance and I think North Melbourne have enough skillful runners through the middle of the ground at the moment to cause headaches for a Fremantle side that although impressive last week, is still showing signs of fatigue at the end of a long season.
The Kangaroos will sneak home in a very good game of footy, take their biggest scalp of the year and keep the race for 8th spot alive.
North Melbourne by 9 points
North Melbourne -9th- 8-10 - 83.25%
Fremantle -5th - 12-6 - 115.62%
Etihad Stadium will play host to a game of great significance for both the Kangaroos and Dockers on Saturday and promises to be an intriguing contest.
If Fremantle win this, the lingering hope of top four remains alive, whilst if the Kangaroos win, then all of a sudden finals could be on the radar.
Both results would be a tremendous achievement given where these two clubs were viewed at the start of the year.
Brad Scott and Mark Harvey are in many ways the two coaches of the year. Throw in Mick Malthouse and probably Damien Hardwick and I reckon you have your nominations.
Scott in his first year at the helm has produced some great results for the Kangaroos, but the one concern is the tendency for them to become totally uncompetitive when the tide turns against them.
Last week they trailled by 13 points late in the third term and ended up losing by 71. This has been a familiar story in many games this year but it must be remembered that there are quite a few players out of their side at present through injury.
What they are doing though is developing a nice midfield group, some quality key backs and a future gun centre half forward in Lachie Hansen.
It's all about future seasons for North Melbourne and a finals berth this year would be a bonus, but in saying that, they are only one game out at the moment with both Sydney and Carlton struggling.
Fremantle have lost their last two at Etihad and are also missing a host of players so North Melbourne will face a real opportunity this week.
Fremantle are a far better side then North Melbourne, but they are still vulnerable on the road, and with Tarrant, Ballantyne, Mayne, Barlow and Palmer out of the side, the dockers are missing some real quality.
Lachie Hansen is one of the real improvers this season, and Aaron Edwards has had a positive impact since his inclusion to the side.
He still has his critics Edwards, but he provides a contest, usually snags a couple of goals each week and is deceptively quick on the lead.
He isn't a star but he is clearly in their best 22.
Lindsay Thomas is the type of player who needs a few weeks to build his momentum back after a spell, so expect a better showing from him, hopefully Ben Warren can return as well, and the spread of goals from midfield options has been a positive.
Greenwood, Swallow, Harvey and co are all capable of pushing forward and hitting the scoreboard.
Fremantle have had no problems sharing the goals around either, 24 majors last week for the Dockers who are the third highest scoring team in the competition.
Defensively they can be vulnerable, and the absence of Chris Tarrant was a clear issue last week, with no solid match up for Mark Lecras.
Mcpharlin and Grover are good talls, but they can be exposed by quicker leading forwards so Thomas and Edwards are two who could give them some grief.
Hayden Ballantyne's absence will be an issue for them as well but the improved form of Hill, Fyfe, Hasleby and Michael Johnson still makes Freo very dangerous in attack.
They are statistically the best team in the comp for scoring once inside fifty so the Roos will need to apply the sort of pressure on the ball carrier that has brought the Dockers undone a couple of times in the past month if they are to keep their season alive.
The Dockers won the contested posession count for the first time in eight weeks last week to arrest an alarming slump, so that will be good for the confidence.
North Melbourne conversely are 15th for contested posessions and 14th for clearances in the competition this year.
However they are the second best hit out team in the comp, with McIntosh and Goldstein capable of making life difficult for Aaron Sandilands.
Both of these sides play on frequently, and are attacking free flowing teams who win a lot of uncontested footy.
Six of the Roos eight wins this year have come at Etihad Stadium, whilst conversely three of Fremantle's six losses have been at the venue.
Grover should play on Edwards, McPharlin will take Hansen and Roger Hayden is the key man to get third up at contests and help out where necessary.
Michael Firrito could get the most important job in the game, and run with Matthew Pavlich.
He has the body size to match him and has run through the middle so should have the tank as well.
Pav was superb last week and holds the key for Fremantle.
North Melbourne's record against top sides is poor, but with the utmost respect to Fremantle, they don't quite have the same aura as the rest of the comp's top echelon at this stage.
And whilst the Roos are undermanned, Fremantle's outs are structurally of greater significance and I think North Melbourne have enough skillful runners through the middle of the ground at the moment to cause headaches for a Fremantle side that although impressive last week, is still showing signs of fatigue at the end of a long season.
The Kangaroos will sneak home in a very good game of footy, take their biggest scalp of the year and keep the race for 8th spot alive.
North Melbourne by 9 points
Monday, August 2, 2010
Preview- Essendon vs Carlton - Round 19
Essendon 12th - 7-11 - 87.19%
Carlton 7th - 9-9 - 102.64%
Crunch time awaits the Blues this Friday night as they face another old foe under lights at the MCG.
This week's clash with Essendon is make or break for the Blues who have lost five of their past seven and have copped it from all angles after their meek capitulation to Collingwood last week.
The final margin was 48 points, but that was flattering for them there is no doubt about it.
From the seven minute of the first quarter, until the 21 minute mark of the third, Carlton had one scoring shot.
That is one legitimate scoring shot in 71 minutes of football. Now yes they were playing the rampaging Magpies but that is an embarrassing stat for a side in contention for finals.
If they lose this game, they are highly unlikely to figure in september and when you consider they were 7-4 at the half way mark and eyeing a top four berth you can understand why Brett Ratten had some stern words to his boys after the game.
Terry Wallace labelled Carlton's midfielders as a group of downhill skiers late last season and it's hard to argue with that assesment right now.
Chris Judd does it all and he cannot be questioned, but Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson, Scotland etc all look good when the Blues are running in waves, but apply some solid pressure on them, and launch attacks the other way, and they go missing far too often.
They need to fight and compete and defend. That means chasing back defensively as hard as you would when your own sides wins posession.
It sounds harsh but not enough of them are prepared to do that when it really matters.
Carlton have a very talented line up, and are the most capable of all the sides 7-11 on the table of doing damage in September.
They have slaughtered St.Kilda and Geelong this year, and have three wins interstate.
So at their best they are fantastic, but that small/mobile forward line has been cramped up over the last couple of months.
O'Hailpin has lost form, Henderson will be very good but is only 20 years of age and needs time and it's hard to expect Garlett, Yarran and Betts as three smalls to maintain the rage all season as good as they have been.
This is why I think they need to decide where they want Jarrod Waite to play and just settle him into that spot.
For mine, that needs to be accross half forward. He has strong hands, holds his position well in a contest, is a neat kick and has plenty of experience.
Yes from time to time, match up's might force him into defence every four or five weeks but on the whole he needs to play forward as that's where they need him most.
For the Bombers, the lingering flicker of light that is a September berth hovers on the horizon once more.
It is highly unlikely they will get there but you never know, this side can look pretty good when they play with confidence and they certainly did that last week.
St.Kilda is fast becoming their bunny but you still have to play well and the Bombers put in their most complete performance since a victory over the Bulldogs in Round 10.
The return of Monfries, Hille and Fletcher has been very important for them and it helps them structure up to maximum affect.
Gumbleton's injury is a blow and might force Hurley to return to the front half after the gun youngster played his best game to date at centre half back last week.
Winderlich should return to help bolster the midfield stocks that have already been given a lift by the inclusion of Houli (surprise surprise), young Colyer and Brent Prismall.
Defensively is where they would have been most pleased last week. Hocking and McVeigh were excellent as well as Fletcher, Hooker and Hurley.
It has been their achilles heel for probably three years so they would have been delighted with that form.
The problem for the Bombers has been consistency, and much like Carlton they have had real problems containing opposition momentum.
Both of these sides are very good offensively, but can be exposed going the other way, and whilst Essendon were super last week, they have been vulnerable over the past two to three months through a lack of defensive pressure through the middle.
Chris Judd should play and his presence might ultimately be the deciding factor if Carlton are to overcome a horror run against their much hated rivals with Essendon having won the past six.
Expect a fired up Carlton this week, they have been attacked by all and sundry over the last few days, with past players, supporters and even Brett Ratten delivering some scathing assesments of recent performances and it's natural that a team comes out breathing fire after such a thing.
For Essendon, like everyone, you hate playing a team with it's backs to the wall but they have plenty of motivation of their own. A chance to potentially end the season of a rival and to build momentum yourself towards 2011 should be big factors for the Bombers.
In the middle, the Blues might throw Richard Hadley a lifeline. He has had numerous chances but was in the best again last week for the Bullants and Carlton had planned for either Hadley or Mclean to play the enforcer/protector role in the middle of the ground but that hasn't worked out.
One thing Hadley will do though is compete and they should give him a crack.
He may get a negating job on Jobe Watson or Brent Stanton, and Grigg also might be used as a stopper.
Andrew Welsh will come into calculations for Essendon to take Judd or Murphy but expect a fairly entertaining battle accross the board in the engine room.
Fletcher and Hooker should get Henderson and Waite in attack (if he plays there), and Hurley should get released forward.
McVeigh will get Betts and Hocking should get Yarran.
Bower will take Hurley if he goes forward, and Jamison should get the slower Neagle.
Walker will be a good match up for Monfries as the lively Bomber was a real threat last week.
This is the first of a host of difficult games to tip this week as both sides have been a real enigma over the season.
Carlton have so much on the line though and after a week in the spotlight they should edge out Essendon in a ripper contest.
If you line then up side by side Carlton just look a little bit more polished and if they can find some space which the Bombers can provide you from time to time, they should get enough quality ball forward to produce the goods.
Carlton by 6 points
Carlton 7th - 9-9 - 102.64%
Crunch time awaits the Blues this Friday night as they face another old foe under lights at the MCG.
This week's clash with Essendon is make or break for the Blues who have lost five of their past seven and have copped it from all angles after their meek capitulation to Collingwood last week.
The final margin was 48 points, but that was flattering for them there is no doubt about it.
From the seven minute of the first quarter, until the 21 minute mark of the third, Carlton had one scoring shot.
That is one legitimate scoring shot in 71 minutes of football. Now yes they were playing the rampaging Magpies but that is an embarrassing stat for a side in contention for finals.
If they lose this game, they are highly unlikely to figure in september and when you consider they were 7-4 at the half way mark and eyeing a top four berth you can understand why Brett Ratten had some stern words to his boys after the game.
Terry Wallace labelled Carlton's midfielders as a group of downhill skiers late last season and it's hard to argue with that assesment right now.
Chris Judd does it all and he cannot be questioned, but Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson, Scotland etc all look good when the Blues are running in waves, but apply some solid pressure on them, and launch attacks the other way, and they go missing far too often.
They need to fight and compete and defend. That means chasing back defensively as hard as you would when your own sides wins posession.
It sounds harsh but not enough of them are prepared to do that when it really matters.
Carlton have a very talented line up, and are the most capable of all the sides 7-11 on the table of doing damage in September.
They have slaughtered St.Kilda and Geelong this year, and have three wins interstate.
So at their best they are fantastic, but that small/mobile forward line has been cramped up over the last couple of months.
O'Hailpin has lost form, Henderson will be very good but is only 20 years of age and needs time and it's hard to expect Garlett, Yarran and Betts as three smalls to maintain the rage all season as good as they have been.
This is why I think they need to decide where they want Jarrod Waite to play and just settle him into that spot.
For mine, that needs to be accross half forward. He has strong hands, holds his position well in a contest, is a neat kick and has plenty of experience.
Yes from time to time, match up's might force him into defence every four or five weeks but on the whole he needs to play forward as that's where they need him most.
For the Bombers, the lingering flicker of light that is a September berth hovers on the horizon once more.
It is highly unlikely they will get there but you never know, this side can look pretty good when they play with confidence and they certainly did that last week.
St.Kilda is fast becoming their bunny but you still have to play well and the Bombers put in their most complete performance since a victory over the Bulldogs in Round 10.
The return of Monfries, Hille and Fletcher has been very important for them and it helps them structure up to maximum affect.
Gumbleton's injury is a blow and might force Hurley to return to the front half after the gun youngster played his best game to date at centre half back last week.
Winderlich should return to help bolster the midfield stocks that have already been given a lift by the inclusion of Houli (surprise surprise), young Colyer and Brent Prismall.
Defensively is where they would have been most pleased last week. Hocking and McVeigh were excellent as well as Fletcher, Hooker and Hurley.
It has been their achilles heel for probably three years so they would have been delighted with that form.
The problem for the Bombers has been consistency, and much like Carlton they have had real problems containing opposition momentum.
Both of these sides are very good offensively, but can be exposed going the other way, and whilst Essendon were super last week, they have been vulnerable over the past two to three months through a lack of defensive pressure through the middle.
Chris Judd should play and his presence might ultimately be the deciding factor if Carlton are to overcome a horror run against their much hated rivals with Essendon having won the past six.
Expect a fired up Carlton this week, they have been attacked by all and sundry over the last few days, with past players, supporters and even Brett Ratten delivering some scathing assesments of recent performances and it's natural that a team comes out breathing fire after such a thing.
For Essendon, like everyone, you hate playing a team with it's backs to the wall but they have plenty of motivation of their own. A chance to potentially end the season of a rival and to build momentum yourself towards 2011 should be big factors for the Bombers.
In the middle, the Blues might throw Richard Hadley a lifeline. He has had numerous chances but was in the best again last week for the Bullants and Carlton had planned for either Hadley or Mclean to play the enforcer/protector role in the middle of the ground but that hasn't worked out.
One thing Hadley will do though is compete and they should give him a crack.
He may get a negating job on Jobe Watson or Brent Stanton, and Grigg also might be used as a stopper.
Andrew Welsh will come into calculations for Essendon to take Judd or Murphy but expect a fairly entertaining battle accross the board in the engine room.
Fletcher and Hooker should get Henderson and Waite in attack (if he plays there), and Hurley should get released forward.
McVeigh will get Betts and Hocking should get Yarran.
Bower will take Hurley if he goes forward, and Jamison should get the slower Neagle.
Walker will be a good match up for Monfries as the lively Bomber was a real threat last week.
This is the first of a host of difficult games to tip this week as both sides have been a real enigma over the season.
Carlton have so much on the line though and after a week in the spotlight they should edge out Essendon in a ripper contest.
If you line then up side by side Carlton just look a little bit more polished and if they can find some space which the Bombers can provide you from time to time, they should get enough quality ball forward to produce the goods.
Carlton by 6 points
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