Geelong vs Collingwood - MCG - Saturday Night
Geelong 2nd - 14-4 - 146.90%
Collingwood 1st - 14-3-1 - 141.99%
Saturday night at the MCG sees one of the most anticipated home and away games in modern times.
On the evidence of 2010 the competition's two best sides will lock horns, both in super form, both close to full strength and in front of a thumping crowd at the home of footy!
It is nights like this that encapsulate all that is fantastic about the game.
Geelong's biggest ever home crowd was 87,000 at the MCG in 1989. I will be very dissapointed if this doesn't eclipse that mark as the Cats are the competition's most brilliant and attractive side, and Collingwood supporters are at fever pitch with the phenomenal form of their boys at present.
Bartel and Podsiadly will return to the fold for Geelong this week leaving only Max Rooke unavailable from their best 22.
The inclusions pose a pleasing dilemma for Geelong, as they ponder how to structure their best team with basically a full talent pool available.
The key area of focus for them remains the big man stocks. Sadly I think Mark Blake is destined to miss out on another finals campaign.
Blake has done nothing wrong in his time with the Cats, but I feel the structure of the side functions better with Hawkins as the second ruckmen.
Blake and Hawkins shared ruck duties to great affect earlier in the season and with Ottens back it should be Blake who draws the short straw.
With Podsiadly stepping into the fold they have added one tall to their squad from last year, and they will be too top heavy if they carry Mooney, Blake, Ottens, Hawkins and J Pod into the same side.
Podsiadly provides forward line depth, whilst Hawkins can work around the ground with greater affect then Blake and hence gets the nod.
Bartel needs to slot back in and perhaps Byrnes or Wojinski are the vulnerable two.
I like Wojinski but he has always seemed to hover around the 18th to 22nd selected player each week and would be vulnerable given his up and down form.
Byrnes was dropped a fortnight ago but is a real talent so it's tough for the Cats, but it's a problem most clubs would prey to have.
Collingwood are another side that fortunately does have that very same problem.
Heath Shaw and Simon Prestigiacomo are set to return this week posing slection headaches for Malthouse and co.
Presti will logically replace Nathan Brown who came in last week, and Shaw will most likely come in for the injured Wellingham but the query is when the Pies are at full strength, who goes out for Wellingham who has been outstanding this year?
Throw in the fact that Fraser, Medhurst and Anthony all played well in the VFL last week and Collingwood are very healthy at present.
Jarryd Blair and Tyson Goldsack are probably the two most vulnerable players in that side.
Both have been very good, but Goldsack is similar to Maxwell and Blair is a young man who has had one or two quiet games as expected since debut and he will be the one most likely to fall out.
In regards to this contest it promises to be truelly mouth watering.
The midfield battle will be tremendous. Ablett, Bartel, Selwood, Enright, Ling, Corey, Kelly and Chapman vs Swan, Pendlebury, Ball, Beams, Thomas, Didak, Johnson and Sidebottom.
On paper, Geelong has the edge, but that pies group is so even accross the board and in super form so it's a fantastic and crucial battle.
Down back Ben Reid will probably get Mooney, with Prestigiacomo taking Podsiadly. Toovey will get Stokes with Shaw on Varcoe, and perhaps Harry O'Brien will get the big job on the superstar Stevie Johnson.
Both are on All Australian pace at present and that is one of the match ups of the night.
At the other end expect Harry Taylor to run with Travis Cloke, Scarlett will make life hell for Chris Dawes and Tom Lonergan will pick up the resting ruckmen.
Josh Hunt will go with Davis, Mackie to take Thomas and Milburn will get McAffer.
Looking at these match ups it's not hard to determine why these sides are so strong.
We know all about Geelong, but Collingwood have improved by at least 20% on last season.
The facts are undeniable. Wellingham, Reid, Sidebottom, Beams, McAffer, Leigh Brown and Dale Thomas have improved out of sight. And when you add Jolly and Ball to the line up they have improved more then any of their rivals.
This Saturday night though is the litmus test to end all others. Win this, and the Pies are outright flag favourites.
Collingwood defeated St.Kilda three weeks ago in a win that shook a significant monkey off their back, and Geelong is the other side that has well and truelly had their measure (and most other sides for that matter).
The result of this match is significant four weeks out from september in terms of confidence.
Collingwood must walk away from this even in defeat, with a belief they can beat Geelong in a final.
If Collingwood belt them, watch the bandwagon overflow, if Geelong belt Collingwood, then I doubt they can win the flag if they face the Cats in september.
If it is close either way, Collingwood could walk away feeling they are close enough if good enough when it matters most.
I can't see either side getting hold of the other, and Collingwood are in the more complete form, but you know the Cats will lift for this.
Last week was the most complete performance by Geelong in about 12 rounds and the run and spread and slick ball movement was a brilliant as ever before.
Collingwood must use their run and create goals in general play to beat the Cats.
You do not beat Geelong by just driving the ball quickly inside fifty, you must run it in there, be patient and create stoppage goals, and crumbing goals in attack.
Geelong concede less goals from marks then any other side, and concede the fewest scores once inside fifty.
St.Kilda, Adelaide, Carlton and Fremantle all beat Geelong this year through plenty of goals from runners. Didak, Thomas, Beams, Sidebottom, Davis and Swan need to hit the scoreboard for them to win.
If the Cats pressure Collingwood accross half back they can force them to kick long inside fifty, rather then running it in, and if that happens they have got them again.
Collingwood conversely have scored more often once inside fifty then anyone else in the past eight weeks, so they are playing the way they need to play to win this game.
The Pies have been beaten in clearances the past four weeks, despite their dominance and whilst they are able to overcome that against certain sides, Geelong will not allow it.
The Cats have averaged 114 more posessions a game then Collingwood in their last three meetings and they will control the tempo if they get first hands on it.
For Geelong this is important, but for Collingwood it's the biggest game of the year so far, so expect them to be breathing fire early.
Collingwood need to be patient, they need to be sharp but at the same time they must play with the freedom they have for the last six weeks. It's a delicate balancing act.
Few clubs are hotter then Collingwood right now, but Geelong lift for these games and my tip has changed about 10 times this week.
But right now my gut feel says the Pies face the best chance they have in a long time to beat this Cats team, if they don't do it saturday night, they never will. Especially in September.
Collingwood by 2 points
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