St.Kilda vs Western Bulldogs - MCG- Saturday Night
Last week :
St.Kilda - Week Off
Western Bulldogs - defeated Sydney by 5 points 11.11.77 to 10.12.72
Much like Friday night's clash we are comfronted with some deja vu with the Saints and the Bulldogs meeting in a Preliminary Final for the second year in a row.
Like Geelong, these two teams have been regular features in the top four for the past three years and once again they are in the thick of the action at the pointy end of the season.
St.Kilda earned a week off on the back of a triumphant four point win over Geelong a fortnight ago, whilst the Bulldogs responded to a week of questions with a gutsy five point win over the in form Swans.
That win was even more special given they were five goals down nearing half time against a team gunning for six straight victories.
A lot is said about junk time goals, and the frustration coach's feel when their teams give up a major or two late in a quarter but few would be feeling that quite like Paul Roos.
With the game slipping away the Bulldogs snared two very quick goals in the last two minutes of the second quarter to cut the margin to 16 points and more importantly swing the momentum of the contest.
When Jarrod Grant goaled in the first minute of the third term the direction of the game had changed completely and the Bulldogs were able to work their way to a memorable victory and keep the premiership dream alive.
Hooper contributed one of those crucial second term goals amongst his modest five posession debut but he will hold his spot and could still be an x factor against the Saints on saturday night.
Dale Morris's inclusion is important given his recent battles with Nick Riewoldt, and it does take pressure off the sore and out of sorts Tom Williams as well as allowing Brian Lake to peel off and be third man in at a contest.
From Rounds 1-18 the Bulldogs had an average disposal efficiency of 68% the best in the competition, but since then they have averaged 61.5% which is the worst in the league. They will need to be sharp and precise in the face of St.Kilda's relentless pressure if they are to create enough chances to win this game.
Ryan Griffen is the main man for the Bulldogs in the middle in the absence of Adam Cooney and he has been superb in both finals.
His ability to deliver long and accurately, and also pop up for a couple of goals is something the Saints will need to curb.
Barry Hall is the potential match winner in this one though, and he has hurt the Saints on this stage in the past.
Last week he had 11 score involvements from the Bulldogs 22 shots which is a huge percentage and expect Zac Dawson to get first crack at him with Fisher, Gwilt and Blake other options.
The key for the Saints though is to peel off and get extra players at the contest but also to cut off the supply and lower the number of entries.
If they do that, the Bulldogs will struggle as they averaged just 59 points a game against the Saints in the last four meetings.
For St.Kilda last week saw them produce a match simulation hit out at Moorabbin to try to replicate a game like environment so they can stay sharp and avoid a slow start like they had in last year's Preliminary Final.
A slow start that night could easily have been costly, and the Bulldogs will get a major sniff if they start well again.
A fortnight ago the Saints were fantastic against the Cats and for much of the night looked like blowing them away.
The tide turned late which is credit to Geelong but St.Kilda appeared to find another level after a long home and away season the moment September began.
Stephen Milne played clearly his best final, Koschitzke started well and Nick Riewoldt ran hard all day to be a constant danger.
The midfield was superb for most of the night both offensively and through pressure going the other way so Ross Lyon will be looking for a repeat performance this week.
Stephen Baker was the big discussion point all week but once again it appears as if he will miss out.
He has been named first emergency which raises the mystery around a possible late change but one suspects Lyon is unlikely to play games and Bakes will have to prey the Saints get through and then train the house down in the hope of winning a spot in a Grand Final.
Geary, Steven and Armitage would be the next three in line for a game but the Saints have gone unchanged from the team that did the job against the Cats.
Defensively St.Kilda have conceeded less points then anyone else for the second year in a row and have also recorded the highest disposal efficiency in the competition this season.
That points to their tendency to control the tempo of games, keep the ball off their opponents and deny them inside fifty opportunities as well as free running ball.
St.Kilda have been the most efficient side going forward as well in the past five weeks in terms of retaining posession once inside fifty so the Bulldogs will need to replicate the pressure they applied in last year's Preliminary Final.
Zac Dawson I expect will get first crack at Barry Hall with Gwilt to play on Murphy if he goes forward.
Gilbert or Fisher might take Grant with Dempster perhaps likely to play on Brad Johnson.
Clinton Jones who normally tags Cooney might take Boyd or Cross this time in the engine room with Picken likely to play on Dal Santo or Montagna.
At the other end Morris should get Riewoldt, Lake to take Koschitzke with Harbrow on Milne and Adam Schneider another key match up.
On to the tip and most would know it is difficult to tip with anything other then my heart on this one but my head also tells me the Saints should have the answers in what will be a tight affair for most of the night.
The Bulldogs are a top four side, and have been for a long time and despite their apparent fitness issues will be a very hard side to beat.
They also possess the run and flair which at times has caused the Saints grief this year, most notably when they played Carlton and Essendon.
However I just feel with a near full strength side, their own drive to succeed in the wake of 2009 and the benefit of a week off the Saints will be too strong and should pull away late to book a berth in back to back grand finals.
Nothing is easy in preliminary finals, and this won't be either, but St.Kilda to prevail.
St.Kilda by 28 points
Friday, September 17, 2010
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Preview- Collingwood vs Geelong - Second Preliminary Final
Collingwood vs Geelong - MCG- Friday Night
Last week: Collingwood - Week Off
Geelong - defeated Fremantle by 69 points 20.15.135 to 10.6.66
Well here we are! Crunch time in season 2010 for the competitions pace setters and the current reigning premiers.
For the third time in four years Geelong and Collingwood will meet in a Preliminary Final to earn the right at a shot at the ultimate glory.
The Cats have won the previous two meetings in september but the sides will meet under different circumstances this week.
Collingwood had the benefit of a week off whilst Geelong found themselves in unfamiliar territory with a cut throat final against Fremantle in the second week of September.
Predictably they took care of that game with a minimun of fuss and were able to run a few blokes into some form.
Joel Selwood and Brad Ottens benefited a lot from the extra run, and the Cats would have been pleased with how quickly they put the game to bed.
An eight goal first quarter took all the confidence out of the visiting team and the game was shot by the end of that first term.
Geelong had some scratchy moments from then on but in finals it's not about looking a million dollars, it's not about percentage or ladder positions, it is simply about progressing.
The Cats needed to beat Fremantle, and get into a Preliminary Final against the Pies without any fresh injuries and on that front it was mission accomplished so on we go to Friday night.
Podsiadly and Chapman did pick up niggles it's fair to say, but both are all clear and Geelong as a result had some interesting selection decisions to be made with the end result being no change.
Most of us expected Andrew Mackie to play, but the form of Harry Taylor is believed to be the reason that hasn't happened.
Geelong it has been said feel they need Tom Lonergan as a defensive re-inforcement if Harry Taylor is beaten by Travis Cloke, so as a result Mackie gets squeezed out.
Mark Blake was also in the mix to replace Hawkins if the side wanted to go with two specialist ruckmen as opposed to Hawkins as the second pinch hitting man.
Geelong are a high posession, efficient team but like everyone, consistent patterns emerge in their losses.
The Cats average 100 more posessions then their opponents when they win games this season, but when they have lost they averaged just nine more.
If you stifle their run, they are forced to find different avenues forward which takes them out of their comfort zone.
They are also the most efficient team in the comp once inside fifty, averaging a score from 55% of forward entries, and a goal from 31%.
They average on the whole 55 inside fifties a game, but when they met Collingwood a few weeks ago they had just 37.
Collingwood's pressure on the ball carrier broke them down consistently accross half back and through the middle.
It is easier said then done though against this super Cats team, but the Pies know they now have the blue print.
For Collingwood, last week was about ironing out injury niggles, and sorting out the best 22 going forward for what they hope is a productive fortnight.
Two weeks ago they demolished the Bulldogs in a trademark Collingwood 2010 performance.
They were relentless with their pressure on the ball carrier particulary on the Bulldogs runners coming out of defence and were able to generate four or five scoring opportunities from the same forward thrust on consistent occasions.
They also restricted the Doggies to a disposal efficiency of 48% which is the second lowest ever recorded in the history of Champion Data.
Sharrod Wellingham's ankle was the concern to come out of that game, as well as perhaps Leon Davis's form but both will play this week.
Davis has been solid with his frontal pressure and has been contributing in other ways. He may not be hitting the scoreboard as much as he once did, but that's not what it is all about.
Wellingham provides another important midfield rotation so his fitness was a vital boost.
Simon Prestigiacomo however might end up being this year's Max Hughton with the veteran defender missing out to Nathan Brown at the selection table.
With Goldsack, Lockyer, Medhurst and a host of others available but not selected it is no surprise the Pies have been so dominant this season.
As mentioned above, the ability to tie the ball in the front half of the ground has been one of the cornerstones of Collingwood's rise this year.
They have averaged 44 points a game from turnovers in the front half of the ground which is 11 more then any other side this year, and the Cats will need to be clean if they are to punch through.
Collingwood average more inside fifties and more effective long kicks then any other team so the key for the Cats is to pressure the ball carrier, make them use the ball short and by hand, and if you do that you will restrict the entries and perhaps take them out of their own comfort zone.
Scarlett should take Dawes, with Taylor getting first crack on Cloke. Lonergan might get Brown when he pushes forward with the out of form Josh Hunt playing on Davis.
At the other end, Brown will take Mooney, Hawkins going forward will get Reid, Toovey will get Johnson I reckon and the match up on the small runners in attack is crucial.
Ling I think should tag Didak who is the real game breaker in the middle of the ground.
Aside from that I think Geelong are best served trying to turn it into a midfield shoot out, something they may fancy their chances with.
On to the tip, and I think the subtle benefits sit with the Pies in what is a very even contest.
Geelong are a magical team, but when these sides have met previously in September the Cats have been a clear cut above the Pies, have had the week off and a settled line up.
This time the Pies have been every bit as good, they have the week off, and they have less selection headaches.
Geelong have had to do it the hard way, and would have had some serious questions in regards to the make up of the best 22.
I also back the pressure sides in finals, and Hawthorn of 08, and the present day St.Kilda and Collingwood sides have been the best in recent times at pressuring the opposition. All three of those teams have given the Cats grief of late.
Collingwood have the blue print, they have the confidence the form and the right personnel to take this one.
And come 10:30 friday night, they will have a berth in a Grand Final as well.
Collingwood by 10 points
Last week: Collingwood - Week Off
Geelong - defeated Fremantle by 69 points 20.15.135 to 10.6.66
Well here we are! Crunch time in season 2010 for the competitions pace setters and the current reigning premiers.
For the third time in four years Geelong and Collingwood will meet in a Preliminary Final to earn the right at a shot at the ultimate glory.
The Cats have won the previous two meetings in september but the sides will meet under different circumstances this week.
Collingwood had the benefit of a week off whilst Geelong found themselves in unfamiliar territory with a cut throat final against Fremantle in the second week of September.
Predictably they took care of that game with a minimun of fuss and were able to run a few blokes into some form.
Joel Selwood and Brad Ottens benefited a lot from the extra run, and the Cats would have been pleased with how quickly they put the game to bed.
An eight goal first quarter took all the confidence out of the visiting team and the game was shot by the end of that first term.
Geelong had some scratchy moments from then on but in finals it's not about looking a million dollars, it's not about percentage or ladder positions, it is simply about progressing.
The Cats needed to beat Fremantle, and get into a Preliminary Final against the Pies without any fresh injuries and on that front it was mission accomplished so on we go to Friday night.
Podsiadly and Chapman did pick up niggles it's fair to say, but both are all clear and Geelong as a result had some interesting selection decisions to be made with the end result being no change.
Most of us expected Andrew Mackie to play, but the form of Harry Taylor is believed to be the reason that hasn't happened.
Geelong it has been said feel they need Tom Lonergan as a defensive re-inforcement if Harry Taylor is beaten by Travis Cloke, so as a result Mackie gets squeezed out.
Mark Blake was also in the mix to replace Hawkins if the side wanted to go with two specialist ruckmen as opposed to Hawkins as the second pinch hitting man.
Geelong are a high posession, efficient team but like everyone, consistent patterns emerge in their losses.
The Cats average 100 more posessions then their opponents when they win games this season, but when they have lost they averaged just nine more.
If you stifle their run, they are forced to find different avenues forward which takes them out of their comfort zone.
They are also the most efficient team in the comp once inside fifty, averaging a score from 55% of forward entries, and a goal from 31%.
They average on the whole 55 inside fifties a game, but when they met Collingwood a few weeks ago they had just 37.
Collingwood's pressure on the ball carrier broke them down consistently accross half back and through the middle.
It is easier said then done though against this super Cats team, but the Pies know they now have the blue print.
For Collingwood, last week was about ironing out injury niggles, and sorting out the best 22 going forward for what they hope is a productive fortnight.
Two weeks ago they demolished the Bulldogs in a trademark Collingwood 2010 performance.
They were relentless with their pressure on the ball carrier particulary on the Bulldogs runners coming out of defence and were able to generate four or five scoring opportunities from the same forward thrust on consistent occasions.
They also restricted the Doggies to a disposal efficiency of 48% which is the second lowest ever recorded in the history of Champion Data.
Sharrod Wellingham's ankle was the concern to come out of that game, as well as perhaps Leon Davis's form but both will play this week.
Davis has been solid with his frontal pressure and has been contributing in other ways. He may not be hitting the scoreboard as much as he once did, but that's not what it is all about.
Wellingham provides another important midfield rotation so his fitness was a vital boost.
Simon Prestigiacomo however might end up being this year's Max Hughton with the veteran defender missing out to Nathan Brown at the selection table.
With Goldsack, Lockyer, Medhurst and a host of others available but not selected it is no surprise the Pies have been so dominant this season.
As mentioned above, the ability to tie the ball in the front half of the ground has been one of the cornerstones of Collingwood's rise this year.
They have averaged 44 points a game from turnovers in the front half of the ground which is 11 more then any other side this year, and the Cats will need to be clean if they are to punch through.
Collingwood average more inside fifties and more effective long kicks then any other team so the key for the Cats is to pressure the ball carrier, make them use the ball short and by hand, and if you do that you will restrict the entries and perhaps take them out of their own comfort zone.
Scarlett should take Dawes, with Taylor getting first crack on Cloke. Lonergan might get Brown when he pushes forward with the out of form Josh Hunt playing on Davis.
At the other end, Brown will take Mooney, Hawkins going forward will get Reid, Toovey will get Johnson I reckon and the match up on the small runners in attack is crucial.
Ling I think should tag Didak who is the real game breaker in the middle of the ground.
Aside from that I think Geelong are best served trying to turn it into a midfield shoot out, something they may fancy their chances with.
On to the tip, and I think the subtle benefits sit with the Pies in what is a very even contest.
Geelong are a magical team, but when these sides have met previously in September the Cats have been a clear cut above the Pies, have had the week off and a settled line up.
This time the Pies have been every bit as good, they have the week off, and they have less selection headaches.
Geelong have had to do it the hard way, and would have had some serious questions in regards to the make up of the best 22.
I also back the pressure sides in finals, and Hawthorn of 08, and the present day St.Kilda and Collingwood sides have been the best in recent times at pressuring the opposition. All three of those teams have given the Cats grief of late.
Collingwood have the blue print, they have the confidence the form and the right personnel to take this one.
And come 10:30 friday night, they will have a berth in a Grand Final as well.
Collingwood by 10 points
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)