Westcoast vs North Melbourne - Subiaco - Sunday
Westcoast 16th - 4-16- 77.53%
North Melbourne 9th - 9-11 - 84.88%
By the time the ball bounces on Sunday afternoon North Melbourne will know if they can still compete in the finals. For the Westcoast Eagles, their fate was officially sealed last week in a narrow loss to Port Adelaide. They will now officially claim their first ever wooden spoon.
The Kangaroos sit six points out of the eight with two games to go. If the eighth placed Hawks defeat Fremantle as expected, then the make up of the finals is complete. But if they somehow get rolled, North Melbourne are a huge chance to sneek up and claim a surprise september berth against the expectations of most.
Regardless of what happens on saturday afternoon though the game is a significant one in that it marks the 300th game of one of the Kangaroos favourite sons.
Brent Harvey will chalk up the wonderful milestone away from home, but in true form he said it was more important that his club kept it's september hopes alive rather then he bask in any personal glory.
His achievements will not be lost on his teammates though who will be eager to deliver a victory on his big day.
North Melbourne are an honest side, and as easy one to assess. They will get smashed by the top four, be competitive against the next four, and then beat everybody else.
Everytime they lead at half time they win, everytime they trail at halftime they lose, they are a pretty straight forward sort of team.
It has been a year of progress and they will in all likelihood end the season with eleven wins.
If somehow Hawthorn lose, the Roos will play off for a spot in the eight in a Sunday twilight fixture, a game the AFL tucked away assuming it would be of little signficance in the final round.
An area of concern for North Melbourne has been forward line pressure. They laid just two tackles inside fifty last week, and on the big ground at Subiaco you need to keep the ball inside your attacking zone as long as possible as you can get slaughtered on the rebound in the open space.
North Melbourne conceeded 10 goals from turnovers last week, but the pressure they will face this week won't be at the same level as was dished up by the Saints.
Lachie Hansen's star continues to rise, and the underrated value of Aaron Edwards has been evident as well. He has kicked at least two goals in a game eight times from twelve matches this year which is an indication of his importance, not just in terms of providing an option but also applying consistent scoreboard pressure.
The Daniel Well's announcement will be a nice boost for all concerned at the club with speculation mounting that he would be heading either to westcoast or up north to the Suns franchise.
Scott Thompson got sucked in a couple of times last week and the one missing piece of the puzzle for him is to smarten up a touch. He defends well, keeps his opponent honest and niggles the hell out of you, but occasionally you can knock him off his game.
For the Eagles the last two weeks have been so close but yet so far with two narrow defeats both coming in the last forty seconds of the game.
Their form hasn't been horrendous, but their inability to maintain posession of the footy has hurt them badly. On too many occasions they give the ball up meekly and had control of the tempo in the last minute of both games only to lose the footy under little pressure.
Their disposal efficiency in the last month is 66% which ranks 15th and last week was their worst of the season, the Kangaroos are very efficient on the counter attack and very good in setting up scoring opportunities through the method they use going forward and they will hurt them.
Over that same period the Eagles have produced 34 direct turnovers of which 19 have resulted in goals.
Mark LeCras has been well held over the past fortnight whilst young Andrew Strjik's star keeps rising with a couple of solid games.
With Todd Goldstein out this week, Cox and Natanui will be hoping too take advantage in the ruck against Hamish McIntosh who has lost his partner in crime.
Westcoast have some pace through the middle of the ground that can exploit teams, but they need to attack through the corridor, particularly at Subiaco.
The Eagles have scored just 71% of their goals from the centre corridor this season which ranks last.
When you play on the biggest ground in the country every second week, you can't afford to be playing that way.
Scott Thompson could be an option for LeCras this week, with Grima on Kennedy, although maybe Brady Rawlings might play down back on the frenchman.
At the other end Edwards, Hansen, Warren and Thomas provide a degree of versatility I don't think the Eagles can contain.
They may be a five goal better side at home, but it won't be enough to stop the Roos giving Boomer Harvey a much deserved win for his 300th game.
It may be close, but like the last fortnight, more then likely it will be no cigar for Woosha's men who will then turn their attention to a season finale.........against Geelong.
North Melbourne by 16 poinys
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Preview - Essendon vs Brisbane - Round 21
Essendon vs Brisbane - Etihad Stadium - Sunday
Essendon 13th - 7-13 - 81.09%
Brisbane 14th - 6-14 - 81.25%
Two of the seasons more dissapointing sides will lock horns at Etihad Stadium on Sunday in a clash of minimal significance in terms of ladder placings.
It is however a significant day for the one of the modern era's great players with Jonathan Brown set to line up in his 200th game.
The match is also important for the beseiged Matthew Knights who is under all sorts of pressure to keep his job for the 2011 season.
Essendon were atrocious last week against the red hot Magpies whilst the Lions had a dip against Adelaide, but ultimately fell short in a tight tussle.
This week the Lions will be straightened up by the return of their inspirational skipper and will give themselves something of a chance in this contest if they can provide the sort of run through the middle that they got for much of last week.
If you want an example of how much the Lions miss a fit and firing Jonathan Brown then the following stats will demonstrate.
The Lions score a goal from just 23% of their inside fifty entries this year, ranked last. They also score at an accuracy of 55%, ranked 14th and average just 6.5 goalkickers a game, ranked 13th.
Much is left to Brown who on one leg got them accross the line against the Eagles a fortnight ago.
He also has a terrific record against the Bombers at Etihad Stadium so if they can feed him some doesn't ball, he could play havoc with Essendon's vulnerable defence.
Pressure through the middle will be important for the Lions, as it is for everyone for that matter and this is an area that can improve.
They allow opposition sides to generate the second most disposals of any team in the competition and whilst their midfield is very attacking, it can certainly be opened up the other way.
Brennan, Power, Rischitelli and Black are capable on their day, with Clark and Leunberger in good form, and when you add Rockliff, Redden and young Harwood the Lions have a good mix of class, the lack of a genuine stopper, and a solid spread of inside midfielders has hurt them.
Injuries have played a big part this year for them, and you can tell their conditioning is an issue as the long season drags on with the Lions winning just two final quarters in the past few months.
For Essendon the last three weeks has been an example of their spasmodic nature with a wild fluctuation between their best and their worst.
They smashed the Saints three weeks ago and since then have been absolutely demolished by Carlton and Collingwood with Matthew Knights once again feeling the backlash from all and sundry.
Last week Essendon laid just 44 tackles and conceeded 85 points directly from turnovers.
This indicates that they were sloppy, but also didn't work hard enough defensively. It's one thing to be outgunned by an in form opponent, but you should be competitive and at least be able to fight your way through.
That was the most dissapointing factor for them on the night and it continues some alarming trends.
Essendon have conceeded 108 points a game since the start of 2008 which is the most of any side in the competition, and last week Collingwood took 17 marks inside fifty which is a combination of a vulnerable defence and a midfield that gets opened up.
They concede seven more inside fifties then they generate as well so perhaps evidence is mounting that they just aren't good enough.
Matthew Knights inherited a poor list, and has had a wretched run of injuries so I feel he deserves more time, but you'd be hoping some of these trends would start to be reversed and that doesn't seem to be happening.
In Essendon's favour this sunday is the fact they play at home against a team that doesn't appear to have the tools to exploit them.
Brisbane aren't applying enough pressure themselves, and are also sloppy going forward and as bad as Essendon can be, the Lions have been very poor for the best part of four months.
Michael Hurley should get first crack at Brown to further his development, whilst Mark McVeigh might get the dangerous Banfield.
At the other end Merrett will get Neagle, with Patfull to play on Monfries. McGrath would be the second option.
Daniel Rich might run with Stanton through the middle as Stanton is still highly vulnerable to the tag.
In a game that is a nervous one for tipsters I think Essendon will release the pressure valve this sunday with a solid home victory against the dissapointing Lions.
It might not be pretty, and an upset is possible, but Matthew Knights will sleep a little easier next week after his boys get the job done.
Essendon by 24 points
Essendon 13th - 7-13 - 81.09%
Brisbane 14th - 6-14 - 81.25%
Two of the seasons more dissapointing sides will lock horns at Etihad Stadium on Sunday in a clash of minimal significance in terms of ladder placings.
It is however a significant day for the one of the modern era's great players with Jonathan Brown set to line up in his 200th game.
The match is also important for the beseiged Matthew Knights who is under all sorts of pressure to keep his job for the 2011 season.
Essendon were atrocious last week against the red hot Magpies whilst the Lions had a dip against Adelaide, but ultimately fell short in a tight tussle.
This week the Lions will be straightened up by the return of their inspirational skipper and will give themselves something of a chance in this contest if they can provide the sort of run through the middle that they got for much of last week.
If you want an example of how much the Lions miss a fit and firing Jonathan Brown then the following stats will demonstrate.
The Lions score a goal from just 23% of their inside fifty entries this year, ranked last. They also score at an accuracy of 55%, ranked 14th and average just 6.5 goalkickers a game, ranked 13th.
Much is left to Brown who on one leg got them accross the line against the Eagles a fortnight ago.
He also has a terrific record against the Bombers at Etihad Stadium so if they can feed him some doesn't ball, he could play havoc with Essendon's vulnerable defence.
Pressure through the middle will be important for the Lions, as it is for everyone for that matter and this is an area that can improve.
They allow opposition sides to generate the second most disposals of any team in the competition and whilst their midfield is very attacking, it can certainly be opened up the other way.
Brennan, Power, Rischitelli and Black are capable on their day, with Clark and Leunberger in good form, and when you add Rockliff, Redden and young Harwood the Lions have a good mix of class, the lack of a genuine stopper, and a solid spread of inside midfielders has hurt them.
Injuries have played a big part this year for them, and you can tell their conditioning is an issue as the long season drags on with the Lions winning just two final quarters in the past few months.
For Essendon the last three weeks has been an example of their spasmodic nature with a wild fluctuation between their best and their worst.
They smashed the Saints three weeks ago and since then have been absolutely demolished by Carlton and Collingwood with Matthew Knights once again feeling the backlash from all and sundry.
Last week Essendon laid just 44 tackles and conceeded 85 points directly from turnovers.
This indicates that they were sloppy, but also didn't work hard enough defensively. It's one thing to be outgunned by an in form opponent, but you should be competitive and at least be able to fight your way through.
That was the most dissapointing factor for them on the night and it continues some alarming trends.
Essendon have conceeded 108 points a game since the start of 2008 which is the most of any side in the competition, and last week Collingwood took 17 marks inside fifty which is a combination of a vulnerable defence and a midfield that gets opened up.
They concede seven more inside fifties then they generate as well so perhaps evidence is mounting that they just aren't good enough.
Matthew Knights inherited a poor list, and has had a wretched run of injuries so I feel he deserves more time, but you'd be hoping some of these trends would start to be reversed and that doesn't seem to be happening.
In Essendon's favour this sunday is the fact they play at home against a team that doesn't appear to have the tools to exploit them.
Brisbane aren't applying enough pressure themselves, and are also sloppy going forward and as bad as Essendon can be, the Lions have been very poor for the best part of four months.
Michael Hurley should get first crack at Brown to further his development, whilst Mark McVeigh might get the dangerous Banfield.
At the other end Merrett will get Neagle, with Patfull to play on Monfries. McGrath would be the second option.
Daniel Rich might run with Stanton through the middle as Stanton is still highly vulnerable to the tag.
In a game that is a nervous one for tipsters I think Essendon will release the pressure valve this sunday with a solid home victory against the dissapointing Lions.
It might not be pretty, and an upset is possible, but Matthew Knights will sleep a little easier next week after his boys get the job done.
Essendon by 24 points
Preview - Port Adelaide vs Melbourne Round 21
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne - Aami Stadium - Sunday
Port Adelaide - 12th - 8-12 - 78.58%
Melbourne -10th - 8-11-1 - 96.05%
In probably the most difficult game to assess of all the matches this round Melbourne venture to Aami Stadium to take on Port Adelaide.
Melbourne enter the clash having lost 14 straight games at Aami Stadium by an average of nine goals whilst Port Adelaide have won their past three matches at home.
On face value that would suggest Port Adelaide should get the chocolates, but pound for pound the Dees are a better side in most areas, the only issue is their ability to play well at a ground where almost none of their list would have experienced a win.
James McDonald plays his 250th and penultimate game for the Demons in something that will definitely give them a lift and despite their finals chances ending last week they still have much to play for.
Finishing the year in ninth with double figure wins would be a fantastic effort given where they have come from and would be a nice launching pad into 2010.
Last week was a terrific contest but ultimately it was probably experience and a touch more class that got Hawthorn over the line against the Dees, but the loss of Aaron Davey early in the game certainly didn't help their cause.
But as the game went on, it was the stoppage work that may have undone them. Hawthorn had 31 more contested posessions then Melbourne last week which was the Demons worst discrepancy this season.
They were also a bit sloppy coming out of defence with a kicking efficiency of just 76% in the back half which is an area they remain a bit vulnerable in.
Frawley, Bartram, Garland etc are all terrific defenders, but they can be a touch sloppy with their disposal. A lot of it relates to poise under pressure and I'm sure they'll be ok in time.
An area Melbourne have built their rise on this season has been pressure on the ball carrier.
They concede less marks inside fifty then anyone else, but also allow opponents to have a disposal efficiency of just 65% which ranks third in the competition.
The more they play in these games, the better they will get at it, and it's a loss that provides short term pain, but doesn't do the club any harm whatsoever.
For Port Adelaide, Matthew Primus has produced three consecutive Aami Stadium wins, with a horrendous defeat at Etihad thrown in the middle.
The result overall sits better then a pass and he remains favourite I would say for the job next year.
Save for a stinker in the next fortnight he would be in the box seat. Especially if Port win both of their games in the run home.
Last week wasn't pretty, but enthralling just the same, and it was essentially a battle of who would make the fewest mistakes.
After controlling the tempo for much of the night, Port Adelaide let the Eagles back in with four consecutive goals in the final term, only to pinch the win courtesy of a David Rodan point late in the contest.
Port Adelaide's problem is retaining posession of the ball. They have no problems winning it around the stoppages but over the past six weeks they have kept posession just 70% of the times they disposed of the footy which ranks last in the competition.
Melbourne are exceptional at slicing teams up on the rebound and are also terrific at pressuring the ball carrier so Port will need to be very careful.
Port Adelaide are also the competitions second lowest scoring side and are the least effective naturally when going forward as a result. Melbourne are very good at restricting sides when they go forward as they generally lose the inside fifty count, yet remain competitive.
Melbourne have won the inside fifties just twice in the past 16 weeks which is a remarkable stat, but it does highlight the style of game they play which is built largely on conservation and then counter attack.
I would expect Jay Schulz to be comfronted with James Frawley, and perhaps Westhoff to get Garland.
At the other end Chaplin will get Brad Green and Liam Jurrah might draw Carlisle or vice versa.
Melbourne are breaking down a few barriers at present and they will break down another one this sunday and win at their hoodoo ground.
Port boast solid wins in the last month over the Crows and Hawthorn (lets throw in westcoast for good measure), but Melbourne's style of footy poses difficulties to handle in regards to match ups and structure and if ever they are going to break through it will be this week against the plucky but unreliable power side.
Melbourne by 13 points
Port Adelaide - 12th - 8-12 - 78.58%
Melbourne -10th - 8-11-1 - 96.05%
In probably the most difficult game to assess of all the matches this round Melbourne venture to Aami Stadium to take on Port Adelaide.
Melbourne enter the clash having lost 14 straight games at Aami Stadium by an average of nine goals whilst Port Adelaide have won their past three matches at home.
On face value that would suggest Port Adelaide should get the chocolates, but pound for pound the Dees are a better side in most areas, the only issue is their ability to play well at a ground where almost none of their list would have experienced a win.
James McDonald plays his 250th and penultimate game for the Demons in something that will definitely give them a lift and despite their finals chances ending last week they still have much to play for.
Finishing the year in ninth with double figure wins would be a fantastic effort given where they have come from and would be a nice launching pad into 2010.
Last week was a terrific contest but ultimately it was probably experience and a touch more class that got Hawthorn over the line against the Dees, but the loss of Aaron Davey early in the game certainly didn't help their cause.
But as the game went on, it was the stoppage work that may have undone them. Hawthorn had 31 more contested posessions then Melbourne last week which was the Demons worst discrepancy this season.
They were also a bit sloppy coming out of defence with a kicking efficiency of just 76% in the back half which is an area they remain a bit vulnerable in.
Frawley, Bartram, Garland etc are all terrific defenders, but they can be a touch sloppy with their disposal. A lot of it relates to poise under pressure and I'm sure they'll be ok in time.
An area Melbourne have built their rise on this season has been pressure on the ball carrier.
They concede less marks inside fifty then anyone else, but also allow opponents to have a disposal efficiency of just 65% which ranks third in the competition.
The more they play in these games, the better they will get at it, and it's a loss that provides short term pain, but doesn't do the club any harm whatsoever.
For Port Adelaide, Matthew Primus has produced three consecutive Aami Stadium wins, with a horrendous defeat at Etihad thrown in the middle.
The result overall sits better then a pass and he remains favourite I would say for the job next year.
Save for a stinker in the next fortnight he would be in the box seat. Especially if Port win both of their games in the run home.
Last week wasn't pretty, but enthralling just the same, and it was essentially a battle of who would make the fewest mistakes.
After controlling the tempo for much of the night, Port Adelaide let the Eagles back in with four consecutive goals in the final term, only to pinch the win courtesy of a David Rodan point late in the contest.
Port Adelaide's problem is retaining posession of the ball. They have no problems winning it around the stoppages but over the past six weeks they have kept posession just 70% of the times they disposed of the footy which ranks last in the competition.
Melbourne are exceptional at slicing teams up on the rebound and are also terrific at pressuring the ball carrier so Port will need to be very careful.
Port Adelaide are also the competitions second lowest scoring side and are the least effective naturally when going forward as a result. Melbourne are very good at restricting sides when they go forward as they generally lose the inside fifty count, yet remain competitive.
Melbourne have won the inside fifties just twice in the past 16 weeks which is a remarkable stat, but it does highlight the style of game they play which is built largely on conservation and then counter attack.
I would expect Jay Schulz to be comfronted with James Frawley, and perhaps Westhoff to get Garland.
At the other end Chaplin will get Brad Green and Liam Jurrah might draw Carlisle or vice versa.
Melbourne are breaking down a few barriers at present and they will break down another one this sunday and win at their hoodoo ground.
Port boast solid wins in the last month over the Crows and Hawthorn (lets throw in westcoast for good measure), but Melbourne's style of footy poses difficulties to handle in regards to match ups and structure and if ever they are going to break through it will be this week against the plucky but unreliable power side.
Melbourne by 13 points
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Preview - Sydney vs Western Bulldogs - Round 21
Sydney vs Western Bulldogs - SCG - Saturday Night
Sydney-7th- 11-9 - 104.17%
Western Bulldogs -4th- 13-7- 129.51%
The chance for retribution will present itself to Rodney Eade's men this Saturday night when they face a Sydney side that has returned to it's trademark in the past fortnight.
That trademark has served them well for so many years under Paul Roos, and they will once again see September action in 2010.
This week though they face a Bulldogs side that was humiliated in no uncertain terms by the might of Geelong last week.
The Fremantle win last Saturday was a brave one for the Swans, who ventured to a place that generally is not a happy hunting ground and took down a side that had it's top four chances on the line.
Ben McGlynn is the signficant loss to come out of that game though with the gutsy small forward suffering a broken cheekbone that will sideline him until about the second week of september provided the Swans get there.
He has been a real barometer for them this year and they have struggled to get near their best form without him.
His ability to rack up 20 touches and two goals a game, as well as the forward pressure he applies makes him so important to their structure.
Daniel Hannebry probably secured himself the rising star award for this season with a sensational 38 posession game and he might even find himself tagged by Liam Picken this week.
Sydney's ability to retain posession is what makes them so strong. They have been more efficient then their opponents 15 times this season from 20 games and especially at the SCG they take control of the tempo of a game and are very difficult to beat.
Regardless of the financial ramifications, if Sydney host a final they need to move heaven and earth to get it at the SCG.
Part of the reason for this is their ability to control the stoppages. Sydney have won the contested posession count in all seven of their games at the SCG, they have also won the clearances and had a higher efficiency in every game at the venue this year.
With Mumford in the ruck and young Jack (who is the next Paul Kelly), Brett Kirk, Jude Bolton, Daniel Hannebry, Adam Goodes and co they just master the ball ups and boundary throw ins and also have the ability to restrict the room and time afforded to opposition sides.
The Bulldogs are one such side that thrives on space and run so the order of the day for the Swans will be to control those stops in play and essentially keep the ball off the Bulldogs as much as possible.
Sounds simple, but the Bulldogs have some fine stoppage players themselves, and they will be keen to atone for last week's howler against the Cats.
A 101 point loss is embarrassing whatever way you look at it and whilst it's fair to say the side was battling illness it doesn't excuse that sort of margin.
Just what effect the flu had on the boys from the kennel is impossible to measure, but it cannot account for that sort of discrepancy in every facet of the game.
Cooney, Hudson and a few others didn't play, and then Lake hurt a hip early in the game but Geelong had three or four of their best side at least not available as well through injury.
Last week the Bulldogs produced a staggering 29 clanger kicks, the most ever recorded at Etihad Stadium and also went around with a disposal efficiency of 56% the worst they have registered in three years.
In the past three weeks they have also been out tackled, averaging 15 less then their opponents in that time which could be due to the boys being a touch off the pace, or perhaps simply the work rate dropping away.
They have produced 12 less Inside fifties then the Swans on their last six visits to the SCG and have lost five of those matches along the way.
If any of those trends continue this week, they will lose again, but will they?
After a week like this the Bulldogs should be fired up, with Rodney Eade putting the acid on his players to respond with a bruising two hour session on Wednesday afternoon and he also forecast up to five changes when the sides are announced shortly.
Shaun Higgins will miss at least 2-3 with a calf injury but he is also battling a mystery illness that could end his season.
Cooney and Hudson will return, whilst Lake is 50/50 and Barry Hall is now battling the flu bug that plagued his teammates last week so all is not perfect by any means.
I would expect Grundy or Richards to take Hall if he plays, which he still should and it will be fascinating to see the response the premiership star gets on his first return to the SCG.
Jarrod Grant remains in good form, whilst Brad Johnson will survive in the team (as he should) and provide a headache as well.
Giansiracusa is in terrific form right now after a fairly indifferent season and could be the X factor. He will most likely draw Malceski or Kennelly for company.
At the other end Brian Lake's absence will hurt if he misses, but not as much as it would against some sides with the Swans not overly tall in attack.
The match up for Goodes as usual is the difficult one with perhaps Dale Morris to get him if he plays forward, and maybe Boyd head to head if he plays in the middle given his history as a tagger.
The Bulldogs have more class in the middle and this might be decisive given the Swans clearance strength this year.
If you win your fair share of ball against them you can break them down and the Bulldogs are more then capable of it.
We need remember the form of the Bulldogs prior to that Geelong belting had been super so that is probably more a reflection of their capabilities.
A lot of factors suggest Sydney should win this, but against the real top echelon sides they have been just a fraction off the pace and Mcglynn is a huge loss.
The Bulldogs are also stung badly by the events of last week and will be eager to make a statement ahead of a long and hopefully for their sake rewarding finals campaign.
There will not be a lot in this game at all, and it could go either way, but back the class and poise of the Dogs to send a reminder that they aren't done yet.
Bulldogs by 4 points
Sydney-7th- 11-9 - 104.17%
Western Bulldogs -4th- 13-7- 129.51%
The chance for retribution will present itself to Rodney Eade's men this Saturday night when they face a Sydney side that has returned to it's trademark in the past fortnight.
That trademark has served them well for so many years under Paul Roos, and they will once again see September action in 2010.
This week though they face a Bulldogs side that was humiliated in no uncertain terms by the might of Geelong last week.
The Fremantle win last Saturday was a brave one for the Swans, who ventured to a place that generally is not a happy hunting ground and took down a side that had it's top four chances on the line.
Ben McGlynn is the signficant loss to come out of that game though with the gutsy small forward suffering a broken cheekbone that will sideline him until about the second week of september provided the Swans get there.
He has been a real barometer for them this year and they have struggled to get near their best form without him.
His ability to rack up 20 touches and two goals a game, as well as the forward pressure he applies makes him so important to their structure.
Daniel Hannebry probably secured himself the rising star award for this season with a sensational 38 posession game and he might even find himself tagged by Liam Picken this week.
Sydney's ability to retain posession is what makes them so strong. They have been more efficient then their opponents 15 times this season from 20 games and especially at the SCG they take control of the tempo of a game and are very difficult to beat.
Regardless of the financial ramifications, if Sydney host a final they need to move heaven and earth to get it at the SCG.
Part of the reason for this is their ability to control the stoppages. Sydney have won the contested posession count in all seven of their games at the SCG, they have also won the clearances and had a higher efficiency in every game at the venue this year.
With Mumford in the ruck and young Jack (who is the next Paul Kelly), Brett Kirk, Jude Bolton, Daniel Hannebry, Adam Goodes and co they just master the ball ups and boundary throw ins and also have the ability to restrict the room and time afforded to opposition sides.
The Bulldogs are one such side that thrives on space and run so the order of the day for the Swans will be to control those stops in play and essentially keep the ball off the Bulldogs as much as possible.
Sounds simple, but the Bulldogs have some fine stoppage players themselves, and they will be keen to atone for last week's howler against the Cats.
A 101 point loss is embarrassing whatever way you look at it and whilst it's fair to say the side was battling illness it doesn't excuse that sort of margin.
Just what effect the flu had on the boys from the kennel is impossible to measure, but it cannot account for that sort of discrepancy in every facet of the game.
Cooney, Hudson and a few others didn't play, and then Lake hurt a hip early in the game but Geelong had three or four of their best side at least not available as well through injury.
Last week the Bulldogs produced a staggering 29 clanger kicks, the most ever recorded at Etihad Stadium and also went around with a disposal efficiency of 56% the worst they have registered in three years.
In the past three weeks they have also been out tackled, averaging 15 less then their opponents in that time which could be due to the boys being a touch off the pace, or perhaps simply the work rate dropping away.
They have produced 12 less Inside fifties then the Swans on their last six visits to the SCG and have lost five of those matches along the way.
If any of those trends continue this week, they will lose again, but will they?
After a week like this the Bulldogs should be fired up, with Rodney Eade putting the acid on his players to respond with a bruising two hour session on Wednesday afternoon and he also forecast up to five changes when the sides are announced shortly.
Shaun Higgins will miss at least 2-3 with a calf injury but he is also battling a mystery illness that could end his season.
Cooney and Hudson will return, whilst Lake is 50/50 and Barry Hall is now battling the flu bug that plagued his teammates last week so all is not perfect by any means.
I would expect Grundy or Richards to take Hall if he plays, which he still should and it will be fascinating to see the response the premiership star gets on his first return to the SCG.
Jarrod Grant remains in good form, whilst Brad Johnson will survive in the team (as he should) and provide a headache as well.
Giansiracusa is in terrific form right now after a fairly indifferent season and could be the X factor. He will most likely draw Malceski or Kennelly for company.
At the other end Brian Lake's absence will hurt if he misses, but not as much as it would against some sides with the Swans not overly tall in attack.
The match up for Goodes as usual is the difficult one with perhaps Dale Morris to get him if he plays forward, and maybe Boyd head to head if he plays in the middle given his history as a tagger.
The Bulldogs have more class in the middle and this might be decisive given the Swans clearance strength this year.
If you win your fair share of ball against them you can break them down and the Bulldogs are more then capable of it.
We need remember the form of the Bulldogs prior to that Geelong belting had been super so that is probably more a reflection of their capabilities.
A lot of factors suggest Sydney should win this, but against the real top echelon sides they have been just a fraction off the pace and Mcglynn is a huge loss.
The Bulldogs are also stung badly by the events of last week and will be eager to make a statement ahead of a long and hopefully for their sake rewarding finals campaign.
There will not be a lot in this game at all, and it could go either way, but back the class and poise of the Dogs to send a reminder that they aren't done yet.
Bulldogs by 4 points
Preview - Collingwood vs Adelaide - Round 21
Collingwood vs Adelaide - MCG - Saturday Night
Collingwood 1st - 16-3-1 - 145.79%
Adelaide 11th - 8-12 - 92.58%
Another saturday night assigment comfronts the rampaging Magpies this week who take on an Adelaide side nearing the finish line in a long and trying season.
For the Crows this week has been another emotionally testing one with Nathan Bock becoming the first league player to put his hand up and say he is going to the Gold Coast next year.
Both club and player agreed to part ways immediately and Neil Craig made no secret of his dislike for the culture he believes these new clubs are going to create.
If the Crows were in finals contention, it would be interesting to see if Craig would have cut ties with Bock, I doubt it, but I do understand the decision given where they are at.
Phil Davis will no doubt get a reprieve and continue his development on what has been a very good season personally.
What it means though is that Bock will join Goodwin, Burton, Mcleod, Vince, Knights, Edwards and Otten on the sidelines for the next fortnight which leaves the Crows with a significant experience void.
The positive is it gives them the chance to keep developing kids, but it's hard to expect much in the way of results with these guys out.
Vince and Knights went down last week which makes the win over the Lions a brave one, but the loss particularly of Vince will leave a big hole in a midfield that will take on arguably the competition's best this week.
Part of Adelaide's problem this year has been the pressure teams have put on their outlet player.
What I mean by that is the Crows strength over recent times was dropping a player off the back of a contest almost as a quarterback and using that player as an outlet.
Teams are closing down that option and forcing the Crows to try and run through an opposition zone.
As a result they are using the ball under a lot more pressure and this season they rank 13th for disposal efficiency.
They are also handballing more then recent years which is a sign of pressure as well.
Defensively the Crows remain quite strong, allowing opposition sides to retain posession of the ball just 40% of the times they go Inside fifty, ranked first in the past seven weeks.
Conversely though the Pies have been superb all year at restricting opposition entries and it's hard to see Adelaide managing to restrict the Pies fleet of options, but also punching through their defence with the inconsistent Tippet, and the lively Porplysia, Dangerfield, Henderson, Douglas and Walker (if he plays).
Collingwood continue to march from strength to strength and demolished under rival last week to tune of 98 points.
It is hard not to start thinking about flags if you support the black and white army, and the challenge of keeping everyone's feet on the ground is a very difficult one given the hype this club attracts.
Selection dilemmas aplenty too for Mick Malthouse with four big names in line for a return after missing last week.
The debate over Darren Jolly's fitness might open the door for Josh Fraser, but as the week rolls on it appears unlikely that the 1999 number one draft pick will play his 200th game this week or even this season.
Luke Ball will return, with Goldsack and Reid to boost the squad that has an abundance of riches at present.
Collingwood have taken an incredible 310 marks from opposition kicks this season, ranked number one in the competition and this is a demonstration of the pressure they apply on teams all over the ground.
They are now executing the full ground press that St.Kilda performed so well last year. They have clicked all aspects of their game together and the only query is on whether they can sustain it through a long september campaign.
Collingwood face an Adelaide side that is very good defensively, but are coming off a game where they took 25 marks Inside fifty, and again kicked in excess of 20 goals.
If a team is to punch through this now Bockless defence, it will be the Pies.
Presti will get the job on Kurt Tippett, Toovey will take the Porpoise, or perhaps it will be Heath Shaw whilst Ben Reid might get Henderson or Dangerfield.
At the other end, Rutten is a good match up for Dawes, whilst Scott Stevens will really have his hands full with the in form Travis Cloke and without the support of Bock it could spell trouble.
Johncock, Reilly and co will have to shut down the fleet of runners pushing through the arc for Collingwood and try as they might it will be an avalanche of ball coming down and it's hard to see them stemming the tide.
Collingwood are motoring from strength to strength and with the depth of players out for the Crows, this could once again get ugly.
For Adelaide it looks as if their decline won't be to severe as some of these kids look quite promising, but right now at the end of a long season they are ripe for the plucking.
Collingwood will enjoy another feast in the lead up to a September possibly full of riches.
Collingwood by 57 points
Collingwood 1st - 16-3-1 - 145.79%
Adelaide 11th - 8-12 - 92.58%
Another saturday night assigment comfronts the rampaging Magpies this week who take on an Adelaide side nearing the finish line in a long and trying season.
For the Crows this week has been another emotionally testing one with Nathan Bock becoming the first league player to put his hand up and say he is going to the Gold Coast next year.
Both club and player agreed to part ways immediately and Neil Craig made no secret of his dislike for the culture he believes these new clubs are going to create.
If the Crows were in finals contention, it would be interesting to see if Craig would have cut ties with Bock, I doubt it, but I do understand the decision given where they are at.
Phil Davis will no doubt get a reprieve and continue his development on what has been a very good season personally.
What it means though is that Bock will join Goodwin, Burton, Mcleod, Vince, Knights, Edwards and Otten on the sidelines for the next fortnight which leaves the Crows with a significant experience void.
The positive is it gives them the chance to keep developing kids, but it's hard to expect much in the way of results with these guys out.
Vince and Knights went down last week which makes the win over the Lions a brave one, but the loss particularly of Vince will leave a big hole in a midfield that will take on arguably the competition's best this week.
Part of Adelaide's problem this year has been the pressure teams have put on their outlet player.
What I mean by that is the Crows strength over recent times was dropping a player off the back of a contest almost as a quarterback and using that player as an outlet.
Teams are closing down that option and forcing the Crows to try and run through an opposition zone.
As a result they are using the ball under a lot more pressure and this season they rank 13th for disposal efficiency.
They are also handballing more then recent years which is a sign of pressure as well.
Defensively the Crows remain quite strong, allowing opposition sides to retain posession of the ball just 40% of the times they go Inside fifty, ranked first in the past seven weeks.
Conversely though the Pies have been superb all year at restricting opposition entries and it's hard to see Adelaide managing to restrict the Pies fleet of options, but also punching through their defence with the inconsistent Tippet, and the lively Porplysia, Dangerfield, Henderson, Douglas and Walker (if he plays).
Collingwood continue to march from strength to strength and demolished under rival last week to tune of 98 points.
It is hard not to start thinking about flags if you support the black and white army, and the challenge of keeping everyone's feet on the ground is a very difficult one given the hype this club attracts.
Selection dilemmas aplenty too for Mick Malthouse with four big names in line for a return after missing last week.
The debate over Darren Jolly's fitness might open the door for Josh Fraser, but as the week rolls on it appears unlikely that the 1999 number one draft pick will play his 200th game this week or even this season.
Luke Ball will return, with Goldsack and Reid to boost the squad that has an abundance of riches at present.
Collingwood have taken an incredible 310 marks from opposition kicks this season, ranked number one in the competition and this is a demonstration of the pressure they apply on teams all over the ground.
They are now executing the full ground press that St.Kilda performed so well last year. They have clicked all aspects of their game together and the only query is on whether they can sustain it through a long september campaign.
Collingwood face an Adelaide side that is very good defensively, but are coming off a game where they took 25 marks Inside fifty, and again kicked in excess of 20 goals.
If a team is to punch through this now Bockless defence, it will be the Pies.
Presti will get the job on Kurt Tippett, Toovey will take the Porpoise, or perhaps it will be Heath Shaw whilst Ben Reid might get Henderson or Dangerfield.
At the other end, Rutten is a good match up for Dawes, whilst Scott Stevens will really have his hands full with the in form Travis Cloke and without the support of Bock it could spell trouble.
Johncock, Reilly and co will have to shut down the fleet of runners pushing through the arc for Collingwood and try as they might it will be an avalanche of ball coming down and it's hard to see them stemming the tide.
Collingwood are motoring from strength to strength and with the depth of players out for the Crows, this could once again get ugly.
For Adelaide it looks as if their decline won't be to severe as some of these kids look quite promising, but right now at the end of a long season they are ripe for the plucking.
Collingwood will enjoy another feast in the lead up to a September possibly full of riches.
Collingwood by 57 points
Preview - Hawthorn vs Fremantle -Round 21
Hawthorn vs Fremantle - Aurora Stadium - Saturday
Hawthorn 8th - 10-9-1 - 104.55%
Fremantle 5th - 12-8 - 110.36%
Chilly Tasmania will play host to a crucial clash on saturday afternoon between a couple of finalists that could shape the make up of games in the first week.
Hawthorn are 95% accross the line to play finals and a win this saturday will lock that away completely whilst Fremantle are stuttering badly in the run home, losing another game at Subiaco last week, this time to the desperate Swans.
For Fremantle, they need to fight hard to hold on to their home final. They still also have a statistical chance of finishing top four so the motivation will be strong.
If Fremantle lose their last two, they could drop as low as 8th and have to travel to Victoria in the first week of the finals, an assignment which would spell disaster given their current form.
If they can pinch just one win in the last fortnight they will play Carlton, Sydney or Hawthorn in the first week of the finals at Subiaco.
The problem for Fremantle is that they have so many players out of the side at present and have also hit the wall in regards to their young players momentum.
Last week was a tough hard fought contest against Sydney, a game that could have gone either way and Freo were far from terrible but missed a real chance to put pressure on the Bulldogs in fourth.
This week they travel to a venue they won at in controversial circumstances in 2006, and this is their first visit to Tasmania since that famous day.
Fremantle's prospects on the road are slim given recent form, with their average losing margin in the past three away games being 52 points.
Their home form has dropped away as well, but some early season progress made on the road has fallen away badly in recent weeks.
Some of the major concerns have been that they are unable to hault opposition momentum.
In the past five weeks, Fremantle have conceeded an average of 407 disposals a game, the most of any side, with a staggering 69% of them uncontested.
Some of the young exciting names in the midfield will have very bright futures, and to that end, Fremantle can't be shattered with the fall away, but right now they have hit a road block on their season.
They are also being stifled with their run and forced to overuse the ball in tight rather then playing their hard running, long kicking game. They have gone from 6th in the comp for long kicks per game, to 15th, but the large aurora ground combined with Hawthorn's lack of blistering leg speed means they will have a bit more freedom.
For the Hawks, last week was a virtual elimination final and they produced a gutsy win over the plucky young demons to exercise some of the pain from last year's loss to Essendon in a near identical game.
When push came to shove, they had more class and experience and produced an impressive last term to pull away and all but secure a place in September.
They have Collingwood in the last game though, so a loss to Fremantle would put them in serious danger with the Kangaroos still in the mix if they can win both their games from here.
Hawthorn's win last week arrested an alarming trend with the Hawks belted in contested posessions over the previous fortnight.
In fact last week was their best contested ball differential in a game this season which is a key area ahead of September.
They also smacked Melbourne in the Inside fifites, and defensively held up well against an effective forward combination that had been in good form.
Over the past five weeks, Hawthorn have conceeded the least disposals in the competition but have allowed teams to play at a very high efficiency which indicates their pressure skills have dropped away.
That hints what I thought was the case last week in that they were a little tired after 3 months of high intensity footy.
In the past four weeks, Hawthorn have retained posession from 71% of posessions which ranks 14th, but they face a Fremantle side that has been pretty loose over recent weeks and they should enjoy a bit more freedom.
Tasmania has been a happy hunting ground for the Hawks, particularly against non victorian sides and they have lost just twice to "interstate sides" in the years they have been down there.
That won't change this week with the Hawks boasting a forward line that is too potent for the undermanned fremantle defence, a midfield with far too much clearance power and class and a defence that should be able to contain the Dockers.
With Aaron Sandilands likely to miss again, Fremantle will not carry a ruck supremacy into the game and will need Tarrant or Mayne to return to help straighten them up, with both unlikely.
Stratton should get first crack at Pavlich, whilst Schoenmakers will get Bradley if he goes forward.
Fremantle will probably put Grover on Franklin, with McPharlin likely to get Roughead. Cyril Rioli will return for the Hawks as the X Factor and his class will be a vital inclusion.
Hawthorn will secure a place in the eight on saturday afternoon with a solid win over the classy yet tired Dockers.
Hawthorn by 28 points
Hawthorn 8th - 10-9-1 - 104.55%
Fremantle 5th - 12-8 - 110.36%
Chilly Tasmania will play host to a crucial clash on saturday afternoon between a couple of finalists that could shape the make up of games in the first week.
Hawthorn are 95% accross the line to play finals and a win this saturday will lock that away completely whilst Fremantle are stuttering badly in the run home, losing another game at Subiaco last week, this time to the desperate Swans.
For Fremantle, they need to fight hard to hold on to their home final. They still also have a statistical chance of finishing top four so the motivation will be strong.
If Fremantle lose their last two, they could drop as low as 8th and have to travel to Victoria in the first week of the finals, an assignment which would spell disaster given their current form.
If they can pinch just one win in the last fortnight they will play Carlton, Sydney or Hawthorn in the first week of the finals at Subiaco.
The problem for Fremantle is that they have so many players out of the side at present and have also hit the wall in regards to their young players momentum.
Last week was a tough hard fought contest against Sydney, a game that could have gone either way and Freo were far from terrible but missed a real chance to put pressure on the Bulldogs in fourth.
This week they travel to a venue they won at in controversial circumstances in 2006, and this is their first visit to Tasmania since that famous day.
Fremantle's prospects on the road are slim given recent form, with their average losing margin in the past three away games being 52 points.
Their home form has dropped away as well, but some early season progress made on the road has fallen away badly in recent weeks.
Some of the major concerns have been that they are unable to hault opposition momentum.
In the past five weeks, Fremantle have conceeded an average of 407 disposals a game, the most of any side, with a staggering 69% of them uncontested.
Some of the young exciting names in the midfield will have very bright futures, and to that end, Fremantle can't be shattered with the fall away, but right now they have hit a road block on their season.
They are also being stifled with their run and forced to overuse the ball in tight rather then playing their hard running, long kicking game. They have gone from 6th in the comp for long kicks per game, to 15th, but the large aurora ground combined with Hawthorn's lack of blistering leg speed means they will have a bit more freedom.
For the Hawks, last week was a virtual elimination final and they produced a gutsy win over the plucky young demons to exercise some of the pain from last year's loss to Essendon in a near identical game.
When push came to shove, they had more class and experience and produced an impressive last term to pull away and all but secure a place in September.
They have Collingwood in the last game though, so a loss to Fremantle would put them in serious danger with the Kangaroos still in the mix if they can win both their games from here.
Hawthorn's win last week arrested an alarming trend with the Hawks belted in contested posessions over the previous fortnight.
In fact last week was their best contested ball differential in a game this season which is a key area ahead of September.
They also smacked Melbourne in the Inside fifites, and defensively held up well against an effective forward combination that had been in good form.
Over the past five weeks, Hawthorn have conceeded the least disposals in the competition but have allowed teams to play at a very high efficiency which indicates their pressure skills have dropped away.
That hints what I thought was the case last week in that they were a little tired after 3 months of high intensity footy.
In the past four weeks, Hawthorn have retained posession from 71% of posessions which ranks 14th, but they face a Fremantle side that has been pretty loose over recent weeks and they should enjoy a bit more freedom.
Tasmania has been a happy hunting ground for the Hawks, particularly against non victorian sides and they have lost just twice to "interstate sides" in the years they have been down there.
That won't change this week with the Hawks boasting a forward line that is too potent for the undermanned fremantle defence, a midfield with far too much clearance power and class and a defence that should be able to contain the Dockers.
With Aaron Sandilands likely to miss again, Fremantle will not carry a ruck supremacy into the game and will need Tarrant or Mayne to return to help straighten them up, with both unlikely.
Stratton should get first crack at Pavlich, whilst Schoenmakers will get Bradley if he goes forward.
Fremantle will probably put Grover on Franklin, with McPharlin likely to get Roughead. Cyril Rioli will return for the Hawks as the X Factor and his class will be a vital inclusion.
Hawthorn will secure a place in the eight on saturday afternoon with a solid win over the classy yet tired Dockers.
Hawthorn by 28 points
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Preview- St.Kilda vs Richmond - Round 21
St.Kilda vs Richmond - Etihad Stadium - Saturday
St.Kilda 3rd - 15-6-1 - 124.51%
Richmond 15th - 6-14 - 71.44%
On Saturday afternoon Ben Cousins will play his penultimate AFL game in what looms as a huge test for his young tiger teammates against one of the competitions best teams St.Kilda.
Signs of fatigue have been evident in recent weeks for Richmond with a fade out late against Melbourne, followed by probably their worst loss of the season last week against the Blues.
They were again strong in the clearances which has been a big area for them all year, but they lost a bit of that ferocity and aggression at the contest.
With young legs this can happen. The ability to push to the next contest and keep chasing and harassing can be a struggle as a long season drags on but they owe it to themselves to finish this year with a strong last fortnight to do justice to their efforts.
They haven't undone their hard work by any means in the last few weeks, but fans would have felt a touch dissapointed no doubt.
Jack Riewoldt is being double and sometimes triple teamed at present and this was always going to happen after his red hot patch a month or so ago. The problem now is that the Tigers don't have a mature key forward to help him out. They will in time, just not yet as Griffiths is injured, Jayden Post is still raw and Mitch Morton is a) not big enough and b) being groomed elsewhere.
Jake King continues to perform as a small forward kicking goals and also restricting an opposition runner off half back. He might get Jason Gram this week.
Brett Deledio is also copping a fair bit of attention as teams put homework into his run off halfback, and also that of the skipper Chris Newman.
It's all part of the learning process for the young emerging Tigers who have a ton of upside, they just need to mature a bit, and develop some bigger bodies.
Last time they met St.Kilda, Richmond had a staggering 19 more clearances then the Saints, and for much of the evening they made life quite difficult for the reigning Grand Finalists.
The blueprint this week needs to be similar. Daniel Jackson didn't play that night, he will tag probably Montagna like he did last year, but he along with Martin, Cousins, Tuck and the returning Trent Cotchin will go against Hayes, Dal Santo, Goddard, Montagna, Jones and co for the Saints.
St.Kilda appear to have the better names, but the Tigers strength is clearance work and St.Kilda will be well aware of what happened last time in that third term.
For St.Kilda last week was the first time they have won the clearances since Round 14 which arrested a trend that was starting to get quite alarming.
The next fortnight is all about building momentum and further developing their game for another assault on a flag commencing with a likely first final against Geelong.
They have secured top four which was the prime objective, and will be hoping to use the plucky Tigers, and the dogged Adelaide next week at Aami Stadium to get the structure right and the "Saints footy" model functioning well.
The last two weeks have seen a greater spread of goal kickers, more flair and a bit more freedom of ball movement which is more like St.Kilda's model.
They are actually quite a high scoring and attacking team when executing the game plan properly.
There is no doubt the style is built on defence, but it is only when they are tied down or struggling that they look cumbersome, as most sides do.
Michael Gardiner should return this week, and Steven Baker is probably the only other member of the best 22 to return for the finals, meaning they have a fairly fit list to choose from.
Zac Dawson is another who will be considered, but that may be a horses for courses scenario.
Justin Koschitzke showed some better signs last week in terms of his contested marking and attack on the ball, but he still needs to get his hands on the pill a bit more and hit the scoreboard consistently.
They cannot win the flag without him, so he must find peak form if they are to have a legitimate chance against the Cats, Pies, Dogs and Hawks.
Nick Riewoldt was the other big positive last week with seven goals from twelve shots and also the good games of Sam Fisher and Sam Gilbert who seem to have re-discovered their run off half back.
This week I'd expect Blake to get first crack at Riewoldt, with Fisher an option if pace becomes a problem and probably Gwilt as option three.
King v Gram will be interesting, with Gilbert perhaps getting Morton or Post if they float accross half forward.
At the other end, Will Thursfield might return and play on Nick Riewoldt as he had a reasonable game on him a few years back, Moore or McGuane should take Kozi, but it is the Milne match up they will need to sort out.
Milne has kicked 7, 4 and 5 against the Tigers in his last three meetings with Newman and Edwards both getting a gig on him in recent times.
Perhaps Jake King might have to go back, or maybe the skipper will get another go at it.
Clinton Jones will probably tag Martin I dare say in the middle which is a huge wrap for the young kid.
Richmond have to be respected given their flair, pace and clearance work, but St.Kilda are building for September, have the more mature bodies and the greater spread of talent and should win their third game in a row quite comfortably.
For Ben Cousins, this is the second last time he will take to the field and fans should get along to pay tribute to one of the modern era's finest footballers. A fact I hope is remembered much more then his off field troubles.
Expect him to play a big game this week as he will be making every post a winner in the next two weeks before heading off into the sunset.
Expect his teammates to lift for him too as they love him to bits, but that probably won't be enough to topple one of the flag fancies who need to maintain their momentum over a crucial fortnight leading into September.
St.Kilda by 40 points
St.Kilda 3rd - 15-6-1 - 124.51%
Richmond 15th - 6-14 - 71.44%
On Saturday afternoon Ben Cousins will play his penultimate AFL game in what looms as a huge test for his young tiger teammates against one of the competitions best teams St.Kilda.
Signs of fatigue have been evident in recent weeks for Richmond with a fade out late against Melbourne, followed by probably their worst loss of the season last week against the Blues.
They were again strong in the clearances which has been a big area for them all year, but they lost a bit of that ferocity and aggression at the contest.
With young legs this can happen. The ability to push to the next contest and keep chasing and harassing can be a struggle as a long season drags on but they owe it to themselves to finish this year with a strong last fortnight to do justice to their efforts.
They haven't undone their hard work by any means in the last few weeks, but fans would have felt a touch dissapointed no doubt.
Jack Riewoldt is being double and sometimes triple teamed at present and this was always going to happen after his red hot patch a month or so ago. The problem now is that the Tigers don't have a mature key forward to help him out. They will in time, just not yet as Griffiths is injured, Jayden Post is still raw and Mitch Morton is a) not big enough and b) being groomed elsewhere.
Jake King continues to perform as a small forward kicking goals and also restricting an opposition runner off half back. He might get Jason Gram this week.
Brett Deledio is also copping a fair bit of attention as teams put homework into his run off halfback, and also that of the skipper Chris Newman.
It's all part of the learning process for the young emerging Tigers who have a ton of upside, they just need to mature a bit, and develop some bigger bodies.
Last time they met St.Kilda, Richmond had a staggering 19 more clearances then the Saints, and for much of the evening they made life quite difficult for the reigning Grand Finalists.
The blueprint this week needs to be similar. Daniel Jackson didn't play that night, he will tag probably Montagna like he did last year, but he along with Martin, Cousins, Tuck and the returning Trent Cotchin will go against Hayes, Dal Santo, Goddard, Montagna, Jones and co for the Saints.
St.Kilda appear to have the better names, but the Tigers strength is clearance work and St.Kilda will be well aware of what happened last time in that third term.
For St.Kilda last week was the first time they have won the clearances since Round 14 which arrested a trend that was starting to get quite alarming.
The next fortnight is all about building momentum and further developing their game for another assault on a flag commencing with a likely first final against Geelong.
They have secured top four which was the prime objective, and will be hoping to use the plucky Tigers, and the dogged Adelaide next week at Aami Stadium to get the structure right and the "Saints footy" model functioning well.
The last two weeks have seen a greater spread of goal kickers, more flair and a bit more freedom of ball movement which is more like St.Kilda's model.
They are actually quite a high scoring and attacking team when executing the game plan properly.
There is no doubt the style is built on defence, but it is only when they are tied down or struggling that they look cumbersome, as most sides do.
Michael Gardiner should return this week, and Steven Baker is probably the only other member of the best 22 to return for the finals, meaning they have a fairly fit list to choose from.
Zac Dawson is another who will be considered, but that may be a horses for courses scenario.
Justin Koschitzke showed some better signs last week in terms of his contested marking and attack on the ball, but he still needs to get his hands on the pill a bit more and hit the scoreboard consistently.
They cannot win the flag without him, so he must find peak form if they are to have a legitimate chance against the Cats, Pies, Dogs and Hawks.
Nick Riewoldt was the other big positive last week with seven goals from twelve shots and also the good games of Sam Fisher and Sam Gilbert who seem to have re-discovered their run off half back.
This week I'd expect Blake to get first crack at Riewoldt, with Fisher an option if pace becomes a problem and probably Gwilt as option three.
King v Gram will be interesting, with Gilbert perhaps getting Morton or Post if they float accross half forward.
At the other end, Will Thursfield might return and play on Nick Riewoldt as he had a reasonable game on him a few years back, Moore or McGuane should take Kozi, but it is the Milne match up they will need to sort out.
Milne has kicked 7, 4 and 5 against the Tigers in his last three meetings with Newman and Edwards both getting a gig on him in recent times.
Perhaps Jake King might have to go back, or maybe the skipper will get another go at it.
Clinton Jones will probably tag Martin I dare say in the middle which is a huge wrap for the young kid.
Richmond have to be respected given their flair, pace and clearance work, but St.Kilda are building for September, have the more mature bodies and the greater spread of talent and should win their third game in a row quite comfortably.
For Ben Cousins, this is the second last time he will take to the field and fans should get along to pay tribute to one of the modern era's finest footballers. A fact I hope is remembered much more then his off field troubles.
Expect him to play a big game this week as he will be making every post a winner in the next two weeks before heading off into the sunset.
Expect his teammates to lift for him too as they love him to bits, but that probably won't be enough to topple one of the flag fancies who need to maintain their momentum over a crucial fortnight leading into September.
St.Kilda by 40 points
Preview - Geelong vs Carlton Round 21
Geelong vs Carlton - Etihad Stadium - Friday Night
Geelong 2nd - 15-5 - 146.95%
Carlton 6th - 11-9 - 111.76%
Friday night football will play host to another mouth watering contest between the champs in Geelong, and the rejuvenated young Blues.
For Carlton this presents another challenge against a top side, and for the Cats it's the chance to turn the tables on a team that has had a rare stranglehold on them with the Blues winning the past two meetings of these two sides.
The last fortnight has been a real coaching triumph for Brett Ratten who made the tough calls and is being rewarded for it.
He made no secret of his dissapointment after the Collingwood game with accusations of blokes not putting their head over the ball and he responded by dropping four players.
The blokes he brought in had a real crack, competed hard and got the results. The Blues won by 76 points and responded in the best possible way.
Two of the players dropped were Andrew Walker and Brad Fisher and they played absolute blinders in the VFL with one getting 47 touches and the other kicking ten goals and it posed a selection dilemma for the Carlton coaching staff.
Ratten decided however to stick to his guns, and made no change to the side that demolished Essendon and the end response was an 89 point win over the Tigers.
Ratten made tough calls each week and it has paid off, but more importantly his players responded.
Marc Murphy has had a ripping fortnight after a poor year, Judd is flying as usual, but Grigg, Robinson, Henderson, Hadley and Bower have all added some significant improvement to the side in the last few weeks and this has helped take them forward.
You see how well that forward line can function when the midfield gets on top and provides good supply.
They didn't work hard enough for several weeks but when they are on, they have a midfield that borders on elite.
They remain suscpetible to pressure, and Essendon and Richmond provided next to none, so this week will be a nice challenge.
The forward line is small so when the midfield is pressured into pumping it in their long they can be susceptible, and Geelong are the best in the business at dealing with the long ball inside fifty.
Carlton tore Geelong apart with their pace back in Round 5, and it was the amount of goals from midfielders pushing forward, and their quality smalls that undid Geelong and they must beat them the same way.
That is easier said then done though as the Cats issued one heck of a statement last week.
A 101 point win over another top four side is a fairly significant message to the competition that this team is very much still at the top of it's game and capable of pushing for a fourth consecutive grand final.
The loss to Collingwood shook them up a bit, and with certain people, namely Tim Lane, questioning their future they were always going to be breathing fire.
The Bulldogs no doubt felt the pinch, with several players ill but this is an impossible variable to measure in terms of it's total effect, but one thing we can say is, it does not work out to 101 points!
Corey Enright played with the most freedom he has in several weeks, Andrew Mackie marshalled the defence superbly, Tom Hawkins found some touch in the ruck and the big J-Pod played a very good game against quality opposition away from Skilled Stadium which was very pleasing.
In the space of 40 minutes, Geelong had 74 more disposals, 14 more inside fifties, 11 more clearances and kicked 13.4.82 to 0.1.1. That is a total route and demonstration that when on song, Geelong remain the most devastating team in the league.
Daniel Menzel and Jeremy Laidler showed a bit as well as young players coming into the side so that is a good sign for the Cats future.
Cameron Ling, Joel Corey, Harry Taylor and Tom Lonergan should be back in the mix for selection this week which presents interesting dilemmas for Mark Thompson and his men.
Some, in particular Robert Walls have questioned whether Cameron Ling is in their best 22 anymore, but he clearly is, particularly in September.
One of Collingwood's shortcomings in last years finals campaign was the lack of a shutdown player in the middle.
The Cats had Ling, the Saints had Jones and the Bulldogs had Picken but the Pies didn't have someone capable of putting the brakes on one of the opposition's prime movers.
Geelong need Cameron Ling for his experience, his toughness and also his ability to tag Pendlebury, Dal Santo, Boyd, Hodge etc if required in finals.
It is very difficult to win finals if you don't at least do a lockdown job on someone and Ling is an absolute certainty to play.
I would expect Scarlett to get Waite, Harry Taylor to go with Henderson, Lonergan to be left out due to match ups ( the cats went in too tall last time these sides met), and some homework to be put into the trio of Betts, Yarran and Garlett with Mackie, Enright, Hunt and co to get the job on these boys and try to hurt them as always going the other way.
At the other end, Jamison will get J-Pod with the more mobile Bower likely to get Mooney.
Joseph should tag Ablett as he has done reasonably well in the past whilst Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson, Grigg and Scotland going head to head with Ablett, Chapman, Selwood, Corey, Bartel and Kelly in the middle.
As good as the Blues are, the Cats still hold a key edge here not just offensively, but with the ability to be accountable going the other way.
Geelong have a greater propensity to break down Carlton's fast running game then the Blues do conversely for the Cats.
One thing the last two losses to the Blues have had in common has been the MCG. The Blues were able to use the space inside fifty to expose the Cats defence once hitting up on the rebound.
This game is at Etihad Stadium a venue at which Geelong are probably the best side we have ever seen.
In the past three years the Cats have averaged 128 points a game, and produced an average winning margin of 66 points.
They have a great record everywhere, but that is a phenomenal stat for the Cats at the indoor surface.
Right now they have a bit too much class for an improved Carlton side who are safe in the eight, but could finish as high as fifth if results go their way.
But a win over the Cats will not be forthcoming for Brett Ratten's men on friday night. They have the class to make this close, but Geelong could well be a sleeping giant that has just awoken and their depth of talent in all areas remains a cut above the boys from Visy Park, and win number 16 will be forthcoming on a season that still promises to further write this team's name in history.
Geelong by 32 points
Geelong 2nd - 15-5 - 146.95%
Carlton 6th - 11-9 - 111.76%
Friday night football will play host to another mouth watering contest between the champs in Geelong, and the rejuvenated young Blues.
For Carlton this presents another challenge against a top side, and for the Cats it's the chance to turn the tables on a team that has had a rare stranglehold on them with the Blues winning the past two meetings of these two sides.
The last fortnight has been a real coaching triumph for Brett Ratten who made the tough calls and is being rewarded for it.
He made no secret of his dissapointment after the Collingwood game with accusations of blokes not putting their head over the ball and he responded by dropping four players.
The blokes he brought in had a real crack, competed hard and got the results. The Blues won by 76 points and responded in the best possible way.
Two of the players dropped were Andrew Walker and Brad Fisher and they played absolute blinders in the VFL with one getting 47 touches and the other kicking ten goals and it posed a selection dilemma for the Carlton coaching staff.
Ratten decided however to stick to his guns, and made no change to the side that demolished Essendon and the end response was an 89 point win over the Tigers.
Ratten made tough calls each week and it has paid off, but more importantly his players responded.
Marc Murphy has had a ripping fortnight after a poor year, Judd is flying as usual, but Grigg, Robinson, Henderson, Hadley and Bower have all added some significant improvement to the side in the last few weeks and this has helped take them forward.
You see how well that forward line can function when the midfield gets on top and provides good supply.
They didn't work hard enough for several weeks but when they are on, they have a midfield that borders on elite.
They remain suscpetible to pressure, and Essendon and Richmond provided next to none, so this week will be a nice challenge.
The forward line is small so when the midfield is pressured into pumping it in their long they can be susceptible, and Geelong are the best in the business at dealing with the long ball inside fifty.
Carlton tore Geelong apart with their pace back in Round 5, and it was the amount of goals from midfielders pushing forward, and their quality smalls that undid Geelong and they must beat them the same way.
That is easier said then done though as the Cats issued one heck of a statement last week.
A 101 point win over another top four side is a fairly significant message to the competition that this team is very much still at the top of it's game and capable of pushing for a fourth consecutive grand final.
The loss to Collingwood shook them up a bit, and with certain people, namely Tim Lane, questioning their future they were always going to be breathing fire.
The Bulldogs no doubt felt the pinch, with several players ill but this is an impossible variable to measure in terms of it's total effect, but one thing we can say is, it does not work out to 101 points!
Corey Enright played with the most freedom he has in several weeks, Andrew Mackie marshalled the defence superbly, Tom Hawkins found some touch in the ruck and the big J-Pod played a very good game against quality opposition away from Skilled Stadium which was very pleasing.
In the space of 40 minutes, Geelong had 74 more disposals, 14 more inside fifties, 11 more clearances and kicked 13.4.82 to 0.1.1. That is a total route and demonstration that when on song, Geelong remain the most devastating team in the league.
Daniel Menzel and Jeremy Laidler showed a bit as well as young players coming into the side so that is a good sign for the Cats future.
Cameron Ling, Joel Corey, Harry Taylor and Tom Lonergan should be back in the mix for selection this week which presents interesting dilemmas for Mark Thompson and his men.
Some, in particular Robert Walls have questioned whether Cameron Ling is in their best 22 anymore, but he clearly is, particularly in September.
One of Collingwood's shortcomings in last years finals campaign was the lack of a shutdown player in the middle.
The Cats had Ling, the Saints had Jones and the Bulldogs had Picken but the Pies didn't have someone capable of putting the brakes on one of the opposition's prime movers.
Geelong need Cameron Ling for his experience, his toughness and also his ability to tag Pendlebury, Dal Santo, Boyd, Hodge etc if required in finals.
It is very difficult to win finals if you don't at least do a lockdown job on someone and Ling is an absolute certainty to play.
I would expect Scarlett to get Waite, Harry Taylor to go with Henderson, Lonergan to be left out due to match ups ( the cats went in too tall last time these sides met), and some homework to be put into the trio of Betts, Yarran and Garlett with Mackie, Enright, Hunt and co to get the job on these boys and try to hurt them as always going the other way.
At the other end, Jamison will get J-Pod with the more mobile Bower likely to get Mooney.
Joseph should tag Ablett as he has done reasonably well in the past whilst Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson, Grigg and Scotland going head to head with Ablett, Chapman, Selwood, Corey, Bartel and Kelly in the middle.
As good as the Blues are, the Cats still hold a key edge here not just offensively, but with the ability to be accountable going the other way.
Geelong have a greater propensity to break down Carlton's fast running game then the Blues do conversely for the Cats.
One thing the last two losses to the Blues have had in common has been the MCG. The Blues were able to use the space inside fifty to expose the Cats defence once hitting up on the rebound.
This game is at Etihad Stadium a venue at which Geelong are probably the best side we have ever seen.
In the past three years the Cats have averaged 128 points a game, and produced an average winning margin of 66 points.
They have a great record everywhere, but that is a phenomenal stat for the Cats at the indoor surface.
Right now they have a bit too much class for an improved Carlton side who are safe in the eight, but could finish as high as fifth if results go their way.
But a win over the Cats will not be forthcoming for Brett Ratten's men on friday night. They have the class to make this close, but Geelong could well be a sleeping giant that has just awoken and their depth of talent in all areas remains a cut above the boys from Visy Park, and win number 16 will be forthcoming on a season that still promises to further write this team's name in history.
Geelong by 32 points
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