Fremantle vs Melbourne - Subiaco - Sunday Twilight
Fremantle -4th- 10-5- 119.05%
Melbourne - 11th - 5-9-1 - 88.98%
Fremantle's grip on fourth position was significantly loosened last week when they suffered a 19 point loss to Richmond at Etihad Stadium.
This week they return to their home fortress and take on a Melbourne side that is a notoriously poor traveller so they should bounce back and record their 11th win of what has been a very impressive season.
Melbourne had been struggling for the best part of eight weeks but an impressive all the way win over Essendon last week was the perfect tonic in a week where Jim Stynes once again provided some fantastic inspiration.
The Dockers have welcomed back Chris Tarrant into an extended squad, so for there sake, let's hope he plays as he will need to string some games together leading into an exciting september campaign for the club.
Fremantle will obviously have to make do without Barlow, but it is in defence where they have had some concerns lately.
McPharlin, Tarrant and Grover missing has put pressure on them of late, but it hasn't really been the key posts that have let them down, with Mcphee, Silvagni and Hayden handling that ok.
At times under pressure they have struggled with ball use, with their disposal efficiency in the back half of the ground the fourth worst in the AFL.
Their offensive power cannot be questioned, they score more often then any other team when they go inside fifty, and have a large spread of options in attack with a lot of midfield goals as well.
They need to just tighten up a bit defensively, as only Carlton have conceeded more points amongst the current top eight.
Melbourne would have been delighted to have scored 19 goals last week. Much has been said of the young midfield brigade they have coming through, and also the quality defenders the club is developing.
When people query them, it is their development of players in attack.
Jack Watts has had a solid month, Brad Green was exceptional, and the immediate impact of Liam Jurrah and Colin Sylvia was significant.
Those two, Jurrah in particular will be better for the run.
Stephen Hill and Rhys Palmer need attention for the dees, Palmer's clearance work in the past fortnight has been excellent, whilst Stephen Hill is arguably the game's best user of the ball by foot.
Expect Moloney to follow Palmer closely much as he did with Lenny Hayes a fortnight ago, Stephen Hill is the difficult one, hard to see an immediate option for him.
Brad Green is one of the more intelligent forwards in the game and he will enjoy the space at Subiaco, Tarrant if fit is the man who should get first crack, then probably Silvagni as second option.
Hayden might get a go at Jurrah who is deceptively good in the air, and Hayden from the outside at least, appears to be one of the better match ups for him.
Melbourne are another side that relies on efficiency. Despite all that has been said about their forward line they score from 30% of forward entries which is number two in the AFL.
They are however last for average inside fifties and at times this is due to a tendency to over posess the footy.
If you get caught doing that at Subiaco you are dead and buried.
Another important thing to do on the road is start well, and the Dees have had problems with first quarters all year, having won just four, if the Dockers get them early, they are no chance.
Melbourne are a side that has earnt some respect. The win loss record might not be pretty, but this is an improved line up with a number of quality youngsters, but compared to this Fremantle side they still come up short.
The Dockers have a top four spot on the line and will have too much run and too much spread of talent to lose to a Melbourne side that hasn't enjoyed getting on a plane in recent years.
Fremantle by 35 points.
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Preview- Rich vs N.Melb- Round 16
Richmond vs North Melbourne MCG -Saturday
Richmond 15th - 5-10- 75.72%
North Melbourne 9th - 7-8 - 81.31%
The now annual Eureka Clash pits the in form Tigers with a North Melbourne side desperate to keep it's finals hopes alive.
If the Kangaroos are to realise that goal of playing in September, a win on Sunday is imperative.
These two teams in many ways are the success stories of the year, fremantle aside, which is a strange thing to say given they sit 9th and 15th respectively on the table.
The Kangaroos have gone through a transition from the days under Dean Laidley where they were highly consistent and competitive hovering between 5-10 on the ladder as a rule without really every challenging for a flag, or for that matter falling away to bottom out.
They were expected to take some time to build back up after an inevitable slide in 2009 which resulted in many changes for the Shinboners.
With Brad Scott teaching them a new style of footy in 2010, inconsistency was to be expected, but despite the loss of quality young midfielder Liam Anthony for much of the year, and the absence of vice captain Drew Petrie they have managed to win seven games and could taste finals action in Scott's first year.
To pay North Melbourne due respect that would be an excellent result for them given where they were half way through last season.
Richmond are quite a remarkable case in themselves, 2009 was one of the worst years imaginable and the Tigers found themselves right at square one in terms of a rebuild with a young and inexperienced list and several players seen as nothing more then list cloggers.
As a result the outlook was bleak for 2010 and for the first 9 weeks it was going to script, with the Tigers being compared to the dieing Fitzroy team of 1996, in a season many expected would not net a single victory.
Fast forward to today and Richmond have won five of their past six, and sit behind probably only St.Kilda and Hawthorn as the form team of the competition.
In the past six weeks, Richmond have become the most effective kicking team in the comp, hitting a target 71% of the time.
In the first 11 weeks of the season they were ranked 14th.
In that time period they were also conceding 34 points a game directly from first posessions at stoppages, the worst record in the comp.
In the last six weeks they rank first, conceding just 20 a game.
They have also become the most effective stoppage team themselves, scoring 107 points in the past five weeks, number one in the afl and a staggering 58 points ahead of the next best team.
Deledio, Connors and Newman are now providing real headaches for teams with their rebound run, and of course they have the competitions number one forward up and about in Jack Riewoldt who appears destined to win his first Coleman Medal.
The Kangaroos will need to tighten up on a few areas if they are to stop the Richmond train this week.
They are the lowest tackling team in the competition over the past five weeks, and as a result have allowed their opponents more uncontested posessions then any other side, and more effective disposals.
Looking at the above stats from Richmond's recent form and that's an area the Kangaroos cannot afford to struggle in.
Scott Thompson will be an interesting match up for Jack Riewoldt, and you can guarantee he will annoy the hell out of the Richmond star and try to frustrate him all afternoon.
Collins, Nahas, White and co have been dangerous lately, and you would expect either Jayden Post or Mitch Morton to replace the injured Ben Griffiths.
Daniel Jackson will also miss through a suspension, and given Ben Cousins has been given the all clear to play by the coaching staff, he seems the logical replacement.
Ben Nason may need a rest too, the youngster has copped a pounding these past two weeks and might be a bit sore.
if so, then maybe Polo could get another run.
The Kangaroos missed a chance last week to jump into the eight, and will be eager to atone this week.
Aaron Edwards is a guy who I still believe has a place in their best 22, and despite the fact he isn't a player who is ever going to rip a game apart and kick seven, he provides a contest, can be a good link in the chain accross half forward and usually snares a couple of goals a game.
Warren and Smith, even Wright are developing ok, but Edwards I think has a place.
It would be good to see him get a run this week to help out the in form Lachie Hansen who is enjoying a break out year, and also the smaller brigade of Thomas and Campbell.
Harvey is in terrific form, and his likely shadow for the day in Jackson won't play, so he is a real danger man for the Tigers, and he will need to play well given the clearance strength of Cousins, Tuck, Martin and Cotchin for Richmond.
The Kangaroos should hold an advantage in the ruck through Goldstein and McIntosh, although Graham has been very good this year.
Some match ups you should see are Thompson to Riewoldt, Moore to Hansen and perhaps Thursfield to take Warren or Edwards depending on who plays.
Jake King should get one of either Thomas or Campbell, probably Campbell as Thomas might be a bit too good above his head for the nuggety Richmond tagger.
When North Melbourne take the game on, and play with confidence they are a very good side as was clear when they defeated Carlton a few weeks back and if they get some confidence early, they can really build and if that happens pound for pound, they are a better side then the Tigers.
The Tigers have plenty of confidence and momentum at present though themselves, and are playing with the type of passion that even the most ardent Tigers critic must surely appreciate.
Two clubs heading in the right direction, locking horns at the MCG, what better reason to go to the footy.
You sense their is a momentary fall somewhere for Richmond in the next few weeks, but they just keep defying the odds and right at this point in time they are simply in better form, and in a toss of the coin, they will make five it in a row.
Richmond by 1 point.
Richmond 15th - 5-10- 75.72%
North Melbourne 9th - 7-8 - 81.31%
The now annual Eureka Clash pits the in form Tigers with a North Melbourne side desperate to keep it's finals hopes alive.
If the Kangaroos are to realise that goal of playing in September, a win on Sunday is imperative.
These two teams in many ways are the success stories of the year, fremantle aside, which is a strange thing to say given they sit 9th and 15th respectively on the table.
The Kangaroos have gone through a transition from the days under Dean Laidley where they were highly consistent and competitive hovering between 5-10 on the ladder as a rule without really every challenging for a flag, or for that matter falling away to bottom out.
They were expected to take some time to build back up after an inevitable slide in 2009 which resulted in many changes for the Shinboners.
With Brad Scott teaching them a new style of footy in 2010, inconsistency was to be expected, but despite the loss of quality young midfielder Liam Anthony for much of the year, and the absence of vice captain Drew Petrie they have managed to win seven games and could taste finals action in Scott's first year.
To pay North Melbourne due respect that would be an excellent result for them given where they were half way through last season.
Richmond are quite a remarkable case in themselves, 2009 was one of the worst years imaginable and the Tigers found themselves right at square one in terms of a rebuild with a young and inexperienced list and several players seen as nothing more then list cloggers.
As a result the outlook was bleak for 2010 and for the first 9 weeks it was going to script, with the Tigers being compared to the dieing Fitzroy team of 1996, in a season many expected would not net a single victory.
Fast forward to today and Richmond have won five of their past six, and sit behind probably only St.Kilda and Hawthorn as the form team of the competition.
In the past six weeks, Richmond have become the most effective kicking team in the comp, hitting a target 71% of the time.
In the first 11 weeks of the season they were ranked 14th.
In that time period they were also conceding 34 points a game directly from first posessions at stoppages, the worst record in the comp.
In the last six weeks they rank first, conceding just 20 a game.
They have also become the most effective stoppage team themselves, scoring 107 points in the past five weeks, number one in the afl and a staggering 58 points ahead of the next best team.
Deledio, Connors and Newman are now providing real headaches for teams with their rebound run, and of course they have the competitions number one forward up and about in Jack Riewoldt who appears destined to win his first Coleman Medal.
The Kangaroos will need to tighten up on a few areas if they are to stop the Richmond train this week.
They are the lowest tackling team in the competition over the past five weeks, and as a result have allowed their opponents more uncontested posessions then any other side, and more effective disposals.
Looking at the above stats from Richmond's recent form and that's an area the Kangaroos cannot afford to struggle in.
Scott Thompson will be an interesting match up for Jack Riewoldt, and you can guarantee he will annoy the hell out of the Richmond star and try to frustrate him all afternoon.
Collins, Nahas, White and co have been dangerous lately, and you would expect either Jayden Post or Mitch Morton to replace the injured Ben Griffiths.
Daniel Jackson will also miss through a suspension, and given Ben Cousins has been given the all clear to play by the coaching staff, he seems the logical replacement.
Ben Nason may need a rest too, the youngster has copped a pounding these past two weeks and might be a bit sore.
if so, then maybe Polo could get another run.
The Kangaroos missed a chance last week to jump into the eight, and will be eager to atone this week.
Aaron Edwards is a guy who I still believe has a place in their best 22, and despite the fact he isn't a player who is ever going to rip a game apart and kick seven, he provides a contest, can be a good link in the chain accross half forward and usually snares a couple of goals a game.
Warren and Smith, even Wright are developing ok, but Edwards I think has a place.
It would be good to see him get a run this week to help out the in form Lachie Hansen who is enjoying a break out year, and also the smaller brigade of Thomas and Campbell.
Harvey is in terrific form, and his likely shadow for the day in Jackson won't play, so he is a real danger man for the Tigers, and he will need to play well given the clearance strength of Cousins, Tuck, Martin and Cotchin for Richmond.
The Kangaroos should hold an advantage in the ruck through Goldstein and McIntosh, although Graham has been very good this year.
Some match ups you should see are Thompson to Riewoldt, Moore to Hansen and perhaps Thursfield to take Warren or Edwards depending on who plays.
Jake King should get one of either Thomas or Campbell, probably Campbell as Thomas might be a bit too good above his head for the nuggety Richmond tagger.
When North Melbourne take the game on, and play with confidence they are a very good side as was clear when they defeated Carlton a few weeks back and if they get some confidence early, they can really build and if that happens pound for pound, they are a better side then the Tigers.
The Tigers have plenty of confidence and momentum at present though themselves, and are playing with the type of passion that even the most ardent Tigers critic must surely appreciate.
Two clubs heading in the right direction, locking horns at the MCG, what better reason to go to the footy.
You sense their is a momentary fall somewhere for Richmond in the next few weeks, but they just keep defying the odds and right at this point in time they are simply in better form, and in a toss of the coin, they will make five it in a row.
Richmond by 1 point.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Preview- Carl vs Syd - Round 16
Cartlon vs Sydney -Etihad Stadium - Sunday
Carlton 7th - 8-7 - 107.80%
Sydney 6th - 8-7 - 108.70%
The Swans arrive at Etihad Stadium having won 12 of their past 13 against Carlton dating back to the year 2000.
The plus for the Blues is that the one win in all of that was their most recent meeting late last season.
It's difficult to get a form line on the Blues, where as the Swans have been pretty straight forward.
Sydney have not beaten a single team in the eight this year, and have beaten every team they have played outside the eight except Richmond who got them by four points a fortnight ago.
So it's reasonable to suggest that a game against the swans is a barometer for where you sit in the big scheme of things.
Which means it is a game that has come at the perfect time for a Carlton side that must be questioning where it belongs after three losses from four games in the past month.
The Blues use of the ball killed them against the Bulldogs who are the side that is most likely to punish you for loose and sloppy football.
Carlton's midfield is A Grade but at the moment, aside from Chris Judd, it is struggling for consistency.
Marc Murphy is a terrific player, but whilst his posession tally remains high, he is not having the same impact that he did last year.
Hampson and Jacobs seem to be working well together, and they will need to be on their mettle against the Swans who have Mumford in terrific form.
The Bulldogs rebounding half backs Gilbee, Lake and co destroyed Carlton, and they will need to put the clamps on Nick Malceski who is in All Australian form, Rhyce Shaw and Tadhg Kennelly or they risk the same thing happening again.
Adam Goodes found some form last week, but Paul Roos needs to leave him in the middle. He is smart enough to push forward when need be and do damage and he is a tough one to find a match up for.
Paul Bower will be better for the run, and Jamison will be keen to atone for the belting he copped at the hands of Barry Hall last week.
With Daniel Bradshaw out, life will be a bit easier for him this week.
The Swans rely heavily on goals from small to mediums, such as O'Keefe, Mcglynn, Goodes and the onball brigade.
Carlton are much the same at their end, O'Hailpin has struggled this last month, whilst Yarran and Garlett drift in and out of games which is customary for small forwards.
Eddie Betts is enjoying a career best season and the Swans will need to put the clamps on him.
Speaking of clamps, Brett Kirk will sit on Chris Judd all afternoon in what should be a fascinating battle.
The Blues score a lot of goals on the burst and use their quick ball movement, and are number two in the AFL at scoring goals from stoppages.
Sydney on the other hand allow it's opponents to win a clearance from a stoppage just 35% of the time which is number one in the AFL. If Sydney restrict Carlton to that extent, they will more then likely beat them.
Sydney are also very good at restricting opposition run out of defence, teams generally go inside fifty just 25% of the time once they rebound it from the other end against the Bloods, so Carlton will need to take their chances, and be good by foot to capitalise on the limited chances the Swans give them.
Sydney rarely get opened up in games, whilst the Blues tend to win well when they do with an average margin of 44 points this year.
It is a fascinating battle of sides that play the game very differently.
Sydney are an honest side who are firmly in the middle of the road category, but you can't beat them without being sharp and playing well, and right at this point in time, the Blues aren't either of those two.
It's a very risky bet, as Carlton are the more dynamic of the two sides, but Sydney have the capacity to lock down on a Blues side that's not enjoying it's best moment in the sun right now.
Sydney by 8 points
Carlton 7th - 8-7 - 107.80%
Sydney 6th - 8-7 - 108.70%
The Swans arrive at Etihad Stadium having won 12 of their past 13 against Carlton dating back to the year 2000.
The plus for the Blues is that the one win in all of that was their most recent meeting late last season.
It's difficult to get a form line on the Blues, where as the Swans have been pretty straight forward.
Sydney have not beaten a single team in the eight this year, and have beaten every team they have played outside the eight except Richmond who got them by four points a fortnight ago.
So it's reasonable to suggest that a game against the swans is a barometer for where you sit in the big scheme of things.
Which means it is a game that has come at the perfect time for a Carlton side that must be questioning where it belongs after three losses from four games in the past month.
The Blues use of the ball killed them against the Bulldogs who are the side that is most likely to punish you for loose and sloppy football.
Carlton's midfield is A Grade but at the moment, aside from Chris Judd, it is struggling for consistency.
Marc Murphy is a terrific player, but whilst his posession tally remains high, he is not having the same impact that he did last year.
Hampson and Jacobs seem to be working well together, and they will need to be on their mettle against the Swans who have Mumford in terrific form.
The Bulldogs rebounding half backs Gilbee, Lake and co destroyed Carlton, and they will need to put the clamps on Nick Malceski who is in All Australian form, Rhyce Shaw and Tadhg Kennelly or they risk the same thing happening again.
Adam Goodes found some form last week, but Paul Roos needs to leave him in the middle. He is smart enough to push forward when need be and do damage and he is a tough one to find a match up for.
Paul Bower will be better for the run, and Jamison will be keen to atone for the belting he copped at the hands of Barry Hall last week.
With Daniel Bradshaw out, life will be a bit easier for him this week.
The Swans rely heavily on goals from small to mediums, such as O'Keefe, Mcglynn, Goodes and the onball brigade.
Carlton are much the same at their end, O'Hailpin has struggled this last month, whilst Yarran and Garlett drift in and out of games which is customary for small forwards.
Eddie Betts is enjoying a career best season and the Swans will need to put the clamps on him.
Speaking of clamps, Brett Kirk will sit on Chris Judd all afternoon in what should be a fascinating battle.
The Blues score a lot of goals on the burst and use their quick ball movement, and are number two in the AFL at scoring goals from stoppages.
Sydney on the other hand allow it's opponents to win a clearance from a stoppage just 35% of the time which is number one in the AFL. If Sydney restrict Carlton to that extent, they will more then likely beat them.
Sydney are also very good at restricting opposition run out of defence, teams generally go inside fifty just 25% of the time once they rebound it from the other end against the Bloods, so Carlton will need to take their chances, and be good by foot to capitalise on the limited chances the Swans give them.
Sydney rarely get opened up in games, whilst the Blues tend to win well when they do with an average margin of 44 points this year.
It is a fascinating battle of sides that play the game very differently.
Sydney are an honest side who are firmly in the middle of the road category, but you can't beat them without being sharp and playing well, and right at this point in time, the Blues aren't either of those two.
It's a very risky bet, as Carlton are the more dynamic of the two sides, but Sydney have the capacity to lock down on a Blues side that's not enjoying it's best moment in the sun right now.
Sydney by 8 points
Preview- West.B vs P.Adel Round 16
Western Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide - Darwin - Saturday Night
Bulldogs 5th 9-6 - 131.69%
Port Adelaide 14th - 5-10 -79.00%
For probably the first time since their NAB Cup triumph the Bulldogs demonstrated the kind of form that saw them sweep to premiership favouritism as they smashed Carlton by 68 points at Etihad Stadium last sunday.
For Port Adelaide an era came to end with Mark Williams coaching the Power for the last time in a gallant 26 point loss to Collingwood.
However that performance in many ways was a blight on the club given two and a half years of ineptitude since the embarrassment of the 2007 Grand Final had led Choco to fall on his sword.
To see Port Adelaide storm to a six goal lead mid way through the second term leaves you scratching your head as to why it took such an announcement to see the club play with flair, confidence and passion.
Within 15 minutes though, the real Port Adelaide had returned, as they surrended the lead by half time in a meek rollover so common with this team since 2007.
They are currently in the midst of the worst losing streak in the club's history, and that eight game run is likely to extend to nine against a rejuvenated Bulldogs.
The Doggies biggest problem this year has been consistency, not just in terms of output but also in settling the group.
The forward line has injury and form concerns but last week functioned as well as it had all year, admittedly with little pressure from the Blues.
Barry Hall has added 54 goals this year, but the concern is that Johnson, Hahn, Akermanis, Giansiracusa, Higgins and Murphy have kicked 68 less goals then at the same time last year.
Collectively the midfield is down 12 goals on this time last year as well.
That is a huge discrepancy over the period of a season.
This does suggest light at the end of the tunnel for the doggies however.
Johnson and Hahn are battling form and fitness, but Higgins, Murphy and Gia seem to be finding form, and Aker is a week or two away from resuming.
If they get everyone up and firing and they sneak into the top four, they can still challenge for their second flag in 2010.
Last week they slaughtered Carlton on the turn over, and this week they face a Port Adelaide side that ranks 15th for kicking efficiency, so they will be preying on the errors that inevitably come against the Power, and expect them to slice them up on the large Mawarra ground.
The Bulldogs are the best team in the comp at using the corridor, with 54% of their scores coming from the centre of the ground, so Port need to apply pressure and guard space as much as possible.
Jay Schulz should return to the fold for Port Adelaide and he was in good touch prior to missing last week, he must not only hit the scoreboard, but also try to keep Brian Lake accountable as the Doggies will try to free him as much as possible.
Ebert and Motlop kicked six between them last week, and will need a similar output this time.
The Bulldogs will miss Barry Hall, Akermanis and Hahn from their attack, with Brad Johnson touch and go, so that's a lot of offensive power out of the side.
Port are not great defensively, but they won't have to contend with a fully functioning Bulldogs forward line on Saturday night and if they can bottle the game up, they can keep themselves in it for a long time.
Salopek, Boak, Cassisi and Kane Cornes will have their work cut out against a Bulldogs side that has won it's clearance count convincingly over the past five weeks.
Boyd, Cooney and Griffen were as good as they've been all year last week and should prove to strong again.
Matthew Primus will be taking the reigns for the first time as coach of Port in what he hopes is a seven week audition that nets him the top job permanently.
There is an age old theory that teams win the week after a coaching change, but the stats show that's about a 55% strike rate which isn't a hugely compelling argument.
Port have talent, and if they play with commitment they can be dangerous, expect that this Saturday night, but it doesn't take much to bring out the true colours of the boys from Alberton, and expect the Bulldogs to expose that gradually over the course of the night.
There is too much at stake for them this week, with top four prospects alive and well and they will win their second game in a row and set up a blockbuster with Fremantle next week.
Bulldogs by 29 points
Bulldogs 5th 9-6 - 131.69%
Port Adelaide 14th - 5-10 -79.00%
For probably the first time since their NAB Cup triumph the Bulldogs demonstrated the kind of form that saw them sweep to premiership favouritism as they smashed Carlton by 68 points at Etihad Stadium last sunday.
For Port Adelaide an era came to end with Mark Williams coaching the Power for the last time in a gallant 26 point loss to Collingwood.
However that performance in many ways was a blight on the club given two and a half years of ineptitude since the embarrassment of the 2007 Grand Final had led Choco to fall on his sword.
To see Port Adelaide storm to a six goal lead mid way through the second term leaves you scratching your head as to why it took such an announcement to see the club play with flair, confidence and passion.
Within 15 minutes though, the real Port Adelaide had returned, as they surrended the lead by half time in a meek rollover so common with this team since 2007.
They are currently in the midst of the worst losing streak in the club's history, and that eight game run is likely to extend to nine against a rejuvenated Bulldogs.
The Doggies biggest problem this year has been consistency, not just in terms of output but also in settling the group.
The forward line has injury and form concerns but last week functioned as well as it had all year, admittedly with little pressure from the Blues.
Barry Hall has added 54 goals this year, but the concern is that Johnson, Hahn, Akermanis, Giansiracusa, Higgins and Murphy have kicked 68 less goals then at the same time last year.
Collectively the midfield is down 12 goals on this time last year as well.
That is a huge discrepancy over the period of a season.
This does suggest light at the end of the tunnel for the doggies however.
Johnson and Hahn are battling form and fitness, but Higgins, Murphy and Gia seem to be finding form, and Aker is a week or two away from resuming.
If they get everyone up and firing and they sneak into the top four, they can still challenge for their second flag in 2010.
Last week they slaughtered Carlton on the turn over, and this week they face a Port Adelaide side that ranks 15th for kicking efficiency, so they will be preying on the errors that inevitably come against the Power, and expect them to slice them up on the large Mawarra ground.
The Bulldogs are the best team in the comp at using the corridor, with 54% of their scores coming from the centre of the ground, so Port need to apply pressure and guard space as much as possible.
Jay Schulz should return to the fold for Port Adelaide and he was in good touch prior to missing last week, he must not only hit the scoreboard, but also try to keep Brian Lake accountable as the Doggies will try to free him as much as possible.
Ebert and Motlop kicked six between them last week, and will need a similar output this time.
The Bulldogs will miss Barry Hall, Akermanis and Hahn from their attack, with Brad Johnson touch and go, so that's a lot of offensive power out of the side.
Port are not great defensively, but they won't have to contend with a fully functioning Bulldogs forward line on Saturday night and if they can bottle the game up, they can keep themselves in it for a long time.
Salopek, Boak, Cassisi and Kane Cornes will have their work cut out against a Bulldogs side that has won it's clearance count convincingly over the past five weeks.
Boyd, Cooney and Griffen were as good as they've been all year last week and should prove to strong again.
Matthew Primus will be taking the reigns for the first time as coach of Port in what he hopes is a seven week audition that nets him the top job permanently.
There is an age old theory that teams win the week after a coaching change, but the stats show that's about a 55% strike rate which isn't a hugely compelling argument.
Port have talent, and if they play with commitment they can be dangerous, expect that this Saturday night, but it doesn't take much to bring out the true colours of the boys from Alberton, and expect the Bulldogs to expose that gradually over the course of the night.
There is too much at stake for them this week, with top four prospects alive and well and they will win their second game in a row and set up a blockbuster with Fremantle next week.
Bulldogs by 29 points
Monday, July 12, 2010
Preview- Ess vs West.c - Round 16
Essendon vs Westcoast -Etihad Stadium - Saturday Night
Essendon 13th - 5-10 - 84.26%
Westcoast 16th - 3-12 - 75.16%
The Bombers should get a welcome reprieve on Saturday night when they take on the competitions worst side at Etihad Stadium in what is simply a must win game for the boys from Windy Hill.
Essendon find themselves in unfamiliar territory at the moment with coach Matthew Knights feeling the heat well and truelly after his side's 5th consecutive loss, this time to a Melbourne outfit that had won just one of it's previous eight matches before last week.
If the Bombers are struggling, the Eagles are at rock bottom however with Woosha's men staring their first ever wooden spoon right in the face.
Two games clear on the bottom of the ladder it's hard to see where the next win will come from for the Eagles who have lost all confidence and form.
Their performance against the Crows wasn't terrible last week, but they still weren't good enough to take advantage in some key moments and challenge for a victory.
Mark LeCras and Josh Kennedy are an excellent forward combination and would get a game in any side in the competition, but problems lie elsewhere for this group.
Their midfield lacks pace, and also slaughters the footy far too often.
Priddis and Dalziell can wrack up a million touches each, but lack penetration both in their kicking but also their running.
Selwood is a trier but also doesn't break the lines, and Daniel Kerr has played about three good AFL games in two and a half years and has been injured for the best part of the season.
Dean Cox is showing some concerning designs of being on the wrong side of the hill, and Natanui still has a way to go.
They also miss Darren Glass badly in defence.
Scott Selwood, Brad Sheppherd, Lewis Stevenson, Ashton Hams and co look ok and they need to build something around these guys, as well as Masten and Ebert in the middle.
The Q Train is struggling for form at present and McKinley is someone they need a lift from as well because if he finds form, it will help support Kennedy and Le Cras in that front half.
The Bombers have the hardest best 22 in the competition to define IMO.
David Hille is someone they miss badly, but they have too many similar players.
Angus Monfries will be better for the run, Dustin Fletcher will return which will help release Hurley back into attack where he played well a month or so ago, Scott Gumbleton should return as well.
Dyson, Houli, Prismall etc are players who should all be in Essendon's starting line up, but have struggled for consistency.
Stanton and Watson are quality clearance players but they lack inside presence to support them. Welsh is a solid tagger but too much pressure gets dumped on the aforementioned duo.
Winderlich has been in solid form for the Dons who are the definition of a confidence side.
When up and about, taking the game on and hitting targets they look fantastic, and have claimed the scalps of St.Kilda and the Western Bulldogs this year, as well as leading the Cats by five goals in Round One.
But conversely when the confidence is down they become hesitant, and very sloppy by foot.
With Pears out the Dons defence has been particularly vulnerable and Fletcher's absence has compounded that.
The Bombers have conceded a mark inside fifty from 51% of opposition entries in the past month, which is the worst in the competition.
They have also conceded a clearance from 45% of all centre bounces which confirms the fact that too much is left to too few in there.
Fletcher is back and will take either McKinley or Lynch,
But the Eagles problem has been getting the ball down there. They are last for Inside 50's in the last month, and 15th for scores once in there, so they don't appear to have the arsenal to exploit Essendon's vulnerability.
They are also last for tackles in the AFL and their young bodies will struggle to put enough pressure on Essendon who have a reasonable group of runners, and therefore should get opened up too often to seriously challenge.
This is a game the Dons simply must win, and win they will.
Essendon by 28 points
Essendon 13th - 5-10 - 84.26%
Westcoast 16th - 3-12 - 75.16%
The Bombers should get a welcome reprieve on Saturday night when they take on the competitions worst side at Etihad Stadium in what is simply a must win game for the boys from Windy Hill.
Essendon find themselves in unfamiliar territory at the moment with coach Matthew Knights feeling the heat well and truelly after his side's 5th consecutive loss, this time to a Melbourne outfit that had won just one of it's previous eight matches before last week.
If the Bombers are struggling, the Eagles are at rock bottom however with Woosha's men staring their first ever wooden spoon right in the face.
Two games clear on the bottom of the ladder it's hard to see where the next win will come from for the Eagles who have lost all confidence and form.
Their performance against the Crows wasn't terrible last week, but they still weren't good enough to take advantage in some key moments and challenge for a victory.
Mark LeCras and Josh Kennedy are an excellent forward combination and would get a game in any side in the competition, but problems lie elsewhere for this group.
Their midfield lacks pace, and also slaughters the footy far too often.
Priddis and Dalziell can wrack up a million touches each, but lack penetration both in their kicking but also their running.
Selwood is a trier but also doesn't break the lines, and Daniel Kerr has played about three good AFL games in two and a half years and has been injured for the best part of the season.
Dean Cox is showing some concerning designs of being on the wrong side of the hill, and Natanui still has a way to go.
They also miss Darren Glass badly in defence.
Scott Selwood, Brad Sheppherd, Lewis Stevenson, Ashton Hams and co look ok and they need to build something around these guys, as well as Masten and Ebert in the middle.
The Q Train is struggling for form at present and McKinley is someone they need a lift from as well because if he finds form, it will help support Kennedy and Le Cras in that front half.
The Bombers have the hardest best 22 in the competition to define IMO.
David Hille is someone they miss badly, but they have too many similar players.
Angus Monfries will be better for the run, Dustin Fletcher will return which will help release Hurley back into attack where he played well a month or so ago, Scott Gumbleton should return as well.
Dyson, Houli, Prismall etc are players who should all be in Essendon's starting line up, but have struggled for consistency.
Stanton and Watson are quality clearance players but they lack inside presence to support them. Welsh is a solid tagger but too much pressure gets dumped on the aforementioned duo.
Winderlich has been in solid form for the Dons who are the definition of a confidence side.
When up and about, taking the game on and hitting targets they look fantastic, and have claimed the scalps of St.Kilda and the Western Bulldogs this year, as well as leading the Cats by five goals in Round One.
But conversely when the confidence is down they become hesitant, and very sloppy by foot.
With Pears out the Dons defence has been particularly vulnerable and Fletcher's absence has compounded that.
The Bombers have conceded a mark inside fifty from 51% of opposition entries in the past month, which is the worst in the competition.
They have also conceded a clearance from 45% of all centre bounces which confirms the fact that too much is left to too few in there.
Fletcher is back and will take either McKinley or Lynch,
But the Eagles problem has been getting the ball down there. They are last for Inside 50's in the last month, and 15th for scores once in there, so they don't appear to have the arsenal to exploit Essendon's vulnerability.
They are also last for tackles in the AFL and their young bodies will struggle to put enough pressure on Essendon who have a reasonable group of runners, and therefore should get opened up too often to seriously challenge.
This is a game the Dons simply must win, and win they will.
Essendon by 28 points
Preview -Hawthorn vs Brisbane Round 16
Hawthorn 8th - 8 wins 7 losses - 102.65%
Brisbane 12th - 5 wins 10 losses - 85.16%
The Hawks had won seven consecutive matches prior to last week's narrow defeat at the hands of Geelong, but strangely enough it was probably that loss that best demonstrates how far they have come.
After a horror start to the season that saw them sit at 1-6 the Hawks have gradually turned it around, and it was their ability to push the reigning premiers all the way last week that confirms their standing right now amongst the competitions best teams.
Brisbane conversely have fallen off the pace in a big way. After an agressive trade and draft period the Lions hit the ground running with four straight wins to start the year, but injuries and a rapid decline in form has seen them win just one game since and they have slipped from 1st to 12th on the table in that time.
Drummond, Brown, Adcock, Maguire and Charman are just five of the names that the Lions have had to contend without, and further injury interruptions have plagued Merrett, McGrath, Brennan and Fevola amongst others since the early rounds.
That is a crippling run, and a genuine excuse for the fall, but it has also been a drop in intensity and perhaps a realisation of some deficiencies that existed not far below the surface with this team.
Now as is so often the case when a side starts to struggle, rumours are abound that not all is well within the ranks, with suggestions by former assistant coach Wayne Brittain that newly appointed right hand man Dan Collins is the source of angst in some sections of the playing group.
Michael Voss has moved to hose down these concerns but it doesn't change the fact this season is rapidly spiralling into oblivion for the Lions who harboured legitimate top four aspirations at the start of the season.
The Hawks are a side right now, that is eyeing top four and simply must win this game if it is to realise that goal.
Last week's loss was cushioned somewhat by Fremantle's defeat but the Hawks still have some tough challenges ahead.
One thing that we can guarantee is that if they make the eight, a few sides will be a touch nervous.
In terms of Saturday, the Hawks look a strong chance to regain skipper Sam Mitchell despite breaking a hand just a fortnight ago. His inclusion will bolster an in form midfield brigade led by the general Luke Hodge, Jordan Lewis, Cyril Rioli, Chance Bateman, Xavier Ellis and Shaun Burgoyne who is making a big impact for his new club.
Down back the Hawks have struggled since they won the flag in 08 but over the past month or so the defensive unit has started to settle with Ben Stratton and Ryan Schoenmakers playing good footy, Tom Murphy enjoying a good patch of form, Stephen Gilham doing his job, and the likes of Birchall, Young and Hodge providing the attacking flair that drove the Hawks to greatness two years ago.
Franklin looms menacingly in attack but can consider himself fortunate to be playing. His late hit on Tom Lonergan should have cost him a week.
Jarryd Roughead has shown signs in the past fortnight that the wheel is turning for him and the under siege Lions could be a good opportunity for him to kick a bag.
Osborne, Rioli and co provide the class at ground level.
The Lions would have been pleased with the form of Fevola last week who seems to have returned from a break refreshed.
With Jonathan Brown missing again, the pressure remains on Fev to lead the attack.
Whilst 2010 is nearly a write off, some future signs are good for Brisbane with Cornelius looking lively in attack along with the emergence of Banfield, Rockliff and Redden this season providing a glimpse of what might be for the Lions beyond this year.
They still struggle to generate scores from outside of Fev and Brown, and they need a lift from Sherman, Brennan, Polkinghorne and Clark who can all provide some goals at times.
Their midfield remains pretty strong with Black, Power, Rischitelli, Sherman and Rich very classy, and the aforementioned kids Rockliff and Redden for support.
The Lions still produce good patches of footy each week and that in itself makes them dangerous. But with injuries and conditioning being a problem all year they struggle to sustain momentum over four quarters of a game.
Merrett will take Franklin, and Gilham should get Fevola but the Lions need to tag Luke Hodge and probably Cyril Rioli if they are to have any chance of causing an upset and keeping the faintest of doors open in 2010.
Daniel Rich played off half back last week and was very dangerous so he will most likely get some attention this week from the Hawks coaching staff.
A barometer for when a team is playing well tends to be the pressure indicators. In the first seven weeks the Hawks were ranked 14th for tackles. In the last eight weeks they have been ranked third.
In the past five weeks the Hawks have outscored their opponents by an average of four goals in first quarters, the Lions conversely have been slow starters for a lot of the season.
Brisbane will need to sharpen up by foot as well as they are the number one clanger team in the comp this year.
On paper, there doesn't appear to be much between the sides. However in the areas that matter, such as form and confidence, they are poles apart.
Hawthorn by 44 points.
Brisbane 12th - 5 wins 10 losses - 85.16%
The Hawks had won seven consecutive matches prior to last week's narrow defeat at the hands of Geelong, but strangely enough it was probably that loss that best demonstrates how far they have come.
After a horror start to the season that saw them sit at 1-6 the Hawks have gradually turned it around, and it was their ability to push the reigning premiers all the way last week that confirms their standing right now amongst the competitions best teams.
Brisbane conversely have fallen off the pace in a big way. After an agressive trade and draft period the Lions hit the ground running with four straight wins to start the year, but injuries and a rapid decline in form has seen them win just one game since and they have slipped from 1st to 12th on the table in that time.
Drummond, Brown, Adcock, Maguire and Charman are just five of the names that the Lions have had to contend without, and further injury interruptions have plagued Merrett, McGrath, Brennan and Fevola amongst others since the early rounds.
That is a crippling run, and a genuine excuse for the fall, but it has also been a drop in intensity and perhaps a realisation of some deficiencies that existed not far below the surface with this team.
Now as is so often the case when a side starts to struggle, rumours are abound that not all is well within the ranks, with suggestions by former assistant coach Wayne Brittain that newly appointed right hand man Dan Collins is the source of angst in some sections of the playing group.
Michael Voss has moved to hose down these concerns but it doesn't change the fact this season is rapidly spiralling into oblivion for the Lions who harboured legitimate top four aspirations at the start of the season.
The Hawks are a side right now, that is eyeing top four and simply must win this game if it is to realise that goal.
Last week's loss was cushioned somewhat by Fremantle's defeat but the Hawks still have some tough challenges ahead.
One thing that we can guarantee is that if they make the eight, a few sides will be a touch nervous.
In terms of Saturday, the Hawks look a strong chance to regain skipper Sam Mitchell despite breaking a hand just a fortnight ago. His inclusion will bolster an in form midfield brigade led by the general Luke Hodge, Jordan Lewis, Cyril Rioli, Chance Bateman, Xavier Ellis and Shaun Burgoyne who is making a big impact for his new club.
Down back the Hawks have struggled since they won the flag in 08 but over the past month or so the defensive unit has started to settle with Ben Stratton and Ryan Schoenmakers playing good footy, Tom Murphy enjoying a good patch of form, Stephen Gilham doing his job, and the likes of Birchall, Young and Hodge providing the attacking flair that drove the Hawks to greatness two years ago.
Franklin looms menacingly in attack but can consider himself fortunate to be playing. His late hit on Tom Lonergan should have cost him a week.
Jarryd Roughead has shown signs in the past fortnight that the wheel is turning for him and the under siege Lions could be a good opportunity for him to kick a bag.
Osborne, Rioli and co provide the class at ground level.
The Lions would have been pleased with the form of Fevola last week who seems to have returned from a break refreshed.
With Jonathan Brown missing again, the pressure remains on Fev to lead the attack.
Whilst 2010 is nearly a write off, some future signs are good for Brisbane with Cornelius looking lively in attack along with the emergence of Banfield, Rockliff and Redden this season providing a glimpse of what might be for the Lions beyond this year.
They still struggle to generate scores from outside of Fev and Brown, and they need a lift from Sherman, Brennan, Polkinghorne and Clark who can all provide some goals at times.
Their midfield remains pretty strong with Black, Power, Rischitelli, Sherman and Rich very classy, and the aforementioned kids Rockliff and Redden for support.
The Lions still produce good patches of footy each week and that in itself makes them dangerous. But with injuries and conditioning being a problem all year they struggle to sustain momentum over four quarters of a game.
Merrett will take Franklin, and Gilham should get Fevola but the Lions need to tag Luke Hodge and probably Cyril Rioli if they are to have any chance of causing an upset and keeping the faintest of doors open in 2010.
Daniel Rich played off half back last week and was very dangerous so he will most likely get some attention this week from the Hawks coaching staff.
A barometer for when a team is playing well tends to be the pressure indicators. In the first seven weeks the Hawks were ranked 14th for tackles. In the last eight weeks they have been ranked third.
In the past five weeks the Hawks have outscored their opponents by an average of four goals in first quarters, the Lions conversely have been slow starters for a lot of the season.
Brisbane will need to sharpen up by foot as well as they are the number one clanger team in the comp this year.
On paper, there doesn't appear to be much between the sides. However in the areas that matter, such as form and confidence, they are poles apart.
Hawthorn by 44 points.
Preview - Coll vs St.K Round 16
Collingwood vs St.Kilda - MCG - Saturday afternoon
Collingwood - 3rd -11-3-1 - 132.59%
St.Kilda - 2nd - 12-3 - 128.12%
Two of the competitions best sides will lock horns at the MCG on Saturday afternoon in a mouth watering contest.
Melbourne had experienced a Saturday afternoon drought with no games in town for a month on what was once the premier day for football, however last week's Hawthorn v Geelong classic more then made up for lost time and you can expect this game to be every bit as good.
Collingwood had to work hard last week against a Port Adelaide side that was always going to be fired up in the wake of Mark Williams resignation, but their efforts against the breeze in the third quarter were excellent and they went on to record a 26 point win.
The Saints welcomed back champion Nick Riewoldt but also had to fight all the way to defeat a gallant Lions outfit by 14 points at the Gabba.
Expect the big blond saint to be better for the run, as his second half last week suggested some of the cobwebs were blowing away after three months out of the game.
St.Kilda have won their past seven matches and are building nicely towards another September assault whilst the Pies have in many ways flown under the radar this year which is surprising giving the attention the club usually draws.
St.Kilda have also won the last four meetings between these sides by an average of 45 points so it's an important game for the Magpies who's major stumbling block time and again in the last two years been defeating either the Saints or Geelong in a big game.
Between now and september they play each of them again and if they can snare a win it will do wonders for their confidence come the finals.
St.Kilda's pressure has been the big factor in recent meetings between these sides, and their ability to restrict Collingwood's forward line in particular Didak, Cloke and Davis who have had poor records of late against the boys from Moorabbin.
Cloke will not be there this time after a two match ban handed down by the match review panel and Davis is probably a 50/50 bet to return.
The Pies strength this year has been it's spread of goalkickers. It has had at least ten different goal scorers in a game on nine occasions this year which is the best of any team in the comp, they will need to use this versatility to full affect to exploit the Saints who are the best at restricting teams from scoring.
Collingwood generally play a wide style where they build around the boundary line and they face the Saints who are the best at dragging teams back into the corridor which makes this game a fascinating battle of contrasting styles.
Collingwood have allowed the opposition to kick 79% of their scores from the centre corridor this year which is number three in the comp, if they allow this to happen on Saturday they will lose.
Collingwood have been tackled on average just 55 times in the last six weeks, the lowest of any team in the comp, and their ability to create space is a strength, a large factor in this is that they are the number one team in the comp for interchange rotations which makes them a hard side to lock down on.
St.Kilda have conceded on average just 43 inside fifties a game over that seven week winning run which is five fewer then any other team so the Pies will need to take their chances, and improve on their record from set shots which is just 46%, the worst in the AFL.
The key to beating St.Kilda is to isolate their defenders. The Saints are easily the best defensive unit in the competition, but they can be vulnerable when isolated one on one through the likes of Dawson, Blake and even Gilbert.
Dawes is important for Collingwood, he creates a contest on every occasion and sets up opportunities for the midfield and smaller Collingwood forwards to capitalise on. Without Cloke, a lot of pressure sits on his shoulders.
It will be interesting to see if Fraser returns for this clash given the absence of Cloke in the front half.
St.Kilda should welcome back Brendan Goddard who had a virus last week and will be hoping that Justin Koschitzke has recovered from an ankle injury that has kept him out of the past two games.
Expect Presti to get the job on Riewoldt if he stays close to goal, Maxwell may get the job if he pushes further afield, provided the Pies skipper is fit to play.
Harry O'Brien usually plays on Milne and does a fair job so expect that match up again, Toovey is another option for the in form goal sneak, or perhaps even Schneider.
At the other end Dawson will get Dawes, and the Pies will need offensive lock downs on Sam Gilbert and possibly Fisher who generate so much drive for the Saints off half back.
Heath Shaw needs the same home work at the Saints end and expect Mcqualter to be that man.
In the middle it's Hayes, Dal Santo, Montagna, Jones, Goddard, Ray and Gram against Swan, Pendlebury, Ball, Thomas, Beams, Johnson and Wellingham in what is a super battle.
St.Kilda might feel the affects of a very humid night in Brisbane last week, but with Goddard returning, Riewoldt and Gram better for the run, the Saints should fair ok.
Collingwood need to take a scalp like this to build genuine belief that they can win a flag and they will be in the game up to their eye balls, but the Saints look to have the edge in a few key areas and should win again.
St.Kilda by 12 points.
Collingwood - 3rd -11-3-1 - 132.59%
St.Kilda - 2nd - 12-3 - 128.12%
Two of the competitions best sides will lock horns at the MCG on Saturday afternoon in a mouth watering contest.
Melbourne had experienced a Saturday afternoon drought with no games in town for a month on what was once the premier day for football, however last week's Hawthorn v Geelong classic more then made up for lost time and you can expect this game to be every bit as good.
Collingwood had to work hard last week against a Port Adelaide side that was always going to be fired up in the wake of Mark Williams resignation, but their efforts against the breeze in the third quarter were excellent and they went on to record a 26 point win.
The Saints welcomed back champion Nick Riewoldt but also had to fight all the way to defeat a gallant Lions outfit by 14 points at the Gabba.
Expect the big blond saint to be better for the run, as his second half last week suggested some of the cobwebs were blowing away after three months out of the game.
St.Kilda have won their past seven matches and are building nicely towards another September assault whilst the Pies have in many ways flown under the radar this year which is surprising giving the attention the club usually draws.
St.Kilda have also won the last four meetings between these sides by an average of 45 points so it's an important game for the Magpies who's major stumbling block time and again in the last two years been defeating either the Saints or Geelong in a big game.
Between now and september they play each of them again and if they can snare a win it will do wonders for their confidence come the finals.
St.Kilda's pressure has been the big factor in recent meetings between these sides, and their ability to restrict Collingwood's forward line in particular Didak, Cloke and Davis who have had poor records of late against the boys from Moorabbin.
Cloke will not be there this time after a two match ban handed down by the match review panel and Davis is probably a 50/50 bet to return.
The Pies strength this year has been it's spread of goalkickers. It has had at least ten different goal scorers in a game on nine occasions this year which is the best of any team in the comp, they will need to use this versatility to full affect to exploit the Saints who are the best at restricting teams from scoring.
Collingwood generally play a wide style where they build around the boundary line and they face the Saints who are the best at dragging teams back into the corridor which makes this game a fascinating battle of contrasting styles.
Collingwood have allowed the opposition to kick 79% of their scores from the centre corridor this year which is number three in the comp, if they allow this to happen on Saturday they will lose.
Collingwood have been tackled on average just 55 times in the last six weeks, the lowest of any team in the comp, and their ability to create space is a strength, a large factor in this is that they are the number one team in the comp for interchange rotations which makes them a hard side to lock down on.
St.Kilda have conceded on average just 43 inside fifties a game over that seven week winning run which is five fewer then any other team so the Pies will need to take their chances, and improve on their record from set shots which is just 46%, the worst in the AFL.
The key to beating St.Kilda is to isolate their defenders. The Saints are easily the best defensive unit in the competition, but they can be vulnerable when isolated one on one through the likes of Dawson, Blake and even Gilbert.
Dawes is important for Collingwood, he creates a contest on every occasion and sets up opportunities for the midfield and smaller Collingwood forwards to capitalise on. Without Cloke, a lot of pressure sits on his shoulders.
It will be interesting to see if Fraser returns for this clash given the absence of Cloke in the front half.
St.Kilda should welcome back Brendan Goddard who had a virus last week and will be hoping that Justin Koschitzke has recovered from an ankle injury that has kept him out of the past two games.
Expect Presti to get the job on Riewoldt if he stays close to goal, Maxwell may get the job if he pushes further afield, provided the Pies skipper is fit to play.
Harry O'Brien usually plays on Milne and does a fair job so expect that match up again, Toovey is another option for the in form goal sneak, or perhaps even Schneider.
At the other end Dawson will get Dawes, and the Pies will need offensive lock downs on Sam Gilbert and possibly Fisher who generate so much drive for the Saints off half back.
Heath Shaw needs the same home work at the Saints end and expect Mcqualter to be that man.
In the middle it's Hayes, Dal Santo, Montagna, Jones, Goddard, Ray and Gram against Swan, Pendlebury, Ball, Thomas, Beams, Johnson and Wellingham in what is a super battle.
St.Kilda might feel the affects of a very humid night in Brisbane last week, but with Goddard returning, Riewoldt and Gram better for the run, the Saints should fair ok.
Collingwood need to take a scalp like this to build genuine belief that they can win a flag and they will be in the game up to their eye balls, but the Saints look to have the edge in a few key areas and should win again.
St.Kilda by 12 points.
Preview- Adel vs Geel Round 16
Adelaide vs Geelong - Round 16 Aami Stadium
Adelaide 10th - 6 wins 9 losses - 92.48%
Geelong 1st - 12 wins 3 losses - 146.35%
The Crows have resurrected their season after a disastrous start that saw them lose their first six games and they now, quite unbelievably sit just two wins outside the eight.
It confirms a suspicion we probably all had that the Crows were a pretty good side playing poorly.
This week they come up against the competitions number one team in Geelong who are coming off a classic two point win over Hawthorn last week in one of the games of the season.
Adelaide's unlikely run to the finals hinges largely on this result given they face all of last year's top four in the run home, and also a resurgent Richmond at the MCG.
The Crows probably need to win six of their last seven so a loss friday night would probably cripple them.
But how will they beat this super Geelong unit that continues to press on despite a large injury list for much of the season?
The key is quick ball movement and to isolate some of their more nimble forwards as to beat the Cats you cannot be forced to just pump the ball long inside 50.
The most affective way to beat the Cats has been to run the ball inside the arc, and use your legs and rely on your smalls in attack.
The long ball in makes life easy for Scarlett and Taylor and they will have a picnic.
Geelong's three losses this year have seen a host of runners do the damage against them in attack. It's very rare that a key forward gets hold of them.
Adelaide have been lifted by the form of it's younger midfield brigade with Vince, Douglas and Scott Thompson leading the charge.
Kurt Tippett has found his best form from 2009 whilst Walker, Dangerfield and young Henderson are doing a lot of damage in attack.
The Geelong defence presents a different challenge though with Taylor, Scarlett, Milburn, Mackie, Lonergan and Hunt more then capable of restricting the in form Crows forward line.
Expect Scarlett to take Tippett and try to hurt him on the counter attack.
Taylor will probably go to Henderson which is a massive ask for the young Bacchus Marsh boy against a man who will most likely be the All Australian centre half back.
Joel Corey should return for the Cats in the middle of the ground which is where they should exploit the Crows midfield which although talented, doesn't bat as deep as Geelong's.
Expect Ottens to be better for the run too and he and Blake should take the points against Maric and Griffen in the ruck battle.
Geelong will welcome back Cameron Mooney from a two match suspension which should take some pressure off Podsiadly in attack.
Byrnes, Varcoe and Stokes have all been in good touch and throw in the spread from the midfield and it's hard to see Adelaide putting the clamps on Geelong enough to take the points.
Expect Rutten to get Mooney, and perhaps Stevens to have a crack at J-Pod. Davis, Symes and Johncock will then have big jobs on the smalls in Geelong's forward line.
Jaensch, Sloane, Armstrong and even Symes have all added plenty to the crows in terms of spark as they prepare for life without Edwards, Goodwin and Burton but whilst wins over Melbourne, Essendon and Westcoast are something, the cats are a hole different ball game.
Although the Crows have the capacity to make this game competitive they won't have enough accross the board to defeat the Cats who have too many answers.
Geelong by 31 points.
Adelaide 10th - 6 wins 9 losses - 92.48%
Geelong 1st - 12 wins 3 losses - 146.35%
The Crows have resurrected their season after a disastrous start that saw them lose their first six games and they now, quite unbelievably sit just two wins outside the eight.
It confirms a suspicion we probably all had that the Crows were a pretty good side playing poorly.
This week they come up against the competitions number one team in Geelong who are coming off a classic two point win over Hawthorn last week in one of the games of the season.
Adelaide's unlikely run to the finals hinges largely on this result given they face all of last year's top four in the run home, and also a resurgent Richmond at the MCG.
The Crows probably need to win six of their last seven so a loss friday night would probably cripple them.
But how will they beat this super Geelong unit that continues to press on despite a large injury list for much of the season?
The key is quick ball movement and to isolate some of their more nimble forwards as to beat the Cats you cannot be forced to just pump the ball long inside 50.
The most affective way to beat the Cats has been to run the ball inside the arc, and use your legs and rely on your smalls in attack.
The long ball in makes life easy for Scarlett and Taylor and they will have a picnic.
Geelong's three losses this year have seen a host of runners do the damage against them in attack. It's very rare that a key forward gets hold of them.
Adelaide have been lifted by the form of it's younger midfield brigade with Vince, Douglas and Scott Thompson leading the charge.
Kurt Tippett has found his best form from 2009 whilst Walker, Dangerfield and young Henderson are doing a lot of damage in attack.
The Geelong defence presents a different challenge though with Taylor, Scarlett, Milburn, Mackie, Lonergan and Hunt more then capable of restricting the in form Crows forward line.
Expect Scarlett to take Tippett and try to hurt him on the counter attack.
Taylor will probably go to Henderson which is a massive ask for the young Bacchus Marsh boy against a man who will most likely be the All Australian centre half back.
Joel Corey should return for the Cats in the middle of the ground which is where they should exploit the Crows midfield which although talented, doesn't bat as deep as Geelong's.
Expect Ottens to be better for the run too and he and Blake should take the points against Maric and Griffen in the ruck battle.
Geelong will welcome back Cameron Mooney from a two match suspension which should take some pressure off Podsiadly in attack.
Byrnes, Varcoe and Stokes have all been in good touch and throw in the spread from the midfield and it's hard to see Adelaide putting the clamps on Geelong enough to take the points.
Expect Rutten to get Mooney, and perhaps Stevens to have a crack at J-Pod. Davis, Symes and Johncock will then have big jobs on the smalls in Geelong's forward line.
Jaensch, Sloane, Armstrong and even Symes have all added plenty to the crows in terms of spark as they prepare for life without Edwards, Goodwin and Burton but whilst wins over Melbourne, Essendon and Westcoast are something, the cats are a hole different ball game.
Although the Crows have the capacity to make this game competitive they won't have enough accross the board to defeat the Cats who have too many answers.
Geelong by 31 points.
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