WELCOME!

Welcome to my weekly blog.

You will find match previews and oppinion pieces throughout the football season.

Post season the focus will turn to cricket, horse racing and tennis.

You can also find my match previews at
http://www.thebigtip.com.au/

Check out the The Big Tip for all the latest in sport


Monday, July 12, 2010

Preview -Hawthorn vs Brisbane Round 16

Hawthorn 8th - 8 wins 7 losses - 102.65%
Brisbane 12th - 5 wins 10 losses - 85.16%

The Hawks had won seven consecutive matches prior to last week's narrow defeat at the hands of Geelong, but strangely enough it was probably that loss that best demonstrates how far they have come.

After a horror start to the season that saw them sit at 1-6 the Hawks have gradually turned it around, and it was their ability to push the reigning premiers all the way last week that confirms their standing right now amongst the competitions best teams.

Brisbane conversely have fallen off the pace in a big way. After an agressive trade and draft period the Lions hit the ground running with four straight wins to start the year, but injuries and a rapid decline in form has seen them win just one game since and they have slipped from 1st to 12th on the table in that time.

Drummond, Brown, Adcock, Maguire and Charman are just five of the names that the Lions have had to contend without, and further injury interruptions have plagued Merrett, McGrath, Brennan and Fevola amongst others since the early rounds.

That is a crippling run, and a genuine excuse for the fall, but it has also been a drop in intensity and perhaps a realisation of some deficiencies that existed not far below the surface with this team.

Now as is so often the case when a side starts to struggle, rumours are abound that not all is well within the ranks, with suggestions by former assistant coach Wayne Brittain that newly appointed right hand man Dan Collins is the source of angst in some sections of the playing group.

Michael Voss has moved to hose down these concerns but it doesn't change the fact this season is rapidly spiralling into oblivion for the Lions who harboured legitimate top four aspirations at the start of the season.

The Hawks are a side right now, that is eyeing top four and simply must win this game if it is to realise that goal.

Last week's loss was cushioned somewhat by Fremantle's defeat but the Hawks still have some tough challenges ahead.

One thing that we can guarantee is that if they make the eight, a few sides will be a touch nervous.

In terms of Saturday, the Hawks look a strong chance to regain skipper Sam Mitchell despite breaking a hand just a fortnight ago. His inclusion will bolster an in form midfield brigade led by the general Luke Hodge, Jordan Lewis, Cyril Rioli, Chance Bateman, Xavier Ellis and Shaun Burgoyne who is making a big impact for his new club.

Down back the Hawks have struggled since they won the flag in 08 but over the past month or so the defensive unit has started to settle with Ben Stratton and Ryan Schoenmakers playing good footy, Tom Murphy enjoying a good patch of form, Stephen Gilham doing his job, and the likes of Birchall, Young and Hodge providing the attacking flair that drove the Hawks to greatness two years ago.

Franklin looms menacingly in attack but can consider himself fortunate to be playing. His late hit on Tom Lonergan should have cost him a week.

Jarryd Roughead has shown signs in the past fortnight that the wheel is turning for him and the under siege Lions could be a good opportunity for him to kick a bag.

Osborne, Rioli and co provide the class at ground level.

The Lions would have been pleased with the form of Fevola last week who seems to have returned from a break refreshed.
With Jonathan Brown missing again, the pressure remains on Fev to lead the attack.
Whilst 2010 is nearly a write off, some future signs are good for Brisbane with Cornelius looking lively in attack along with the emergence of Banfield, Rockliff and Redden this season providing a glimpse of what might be for the Lions beyond this year.

They still struggle to generate scores from outside of Fev and Brown, and they need a lift from Sherman, Brennan, Polkinghorne and Clark who can all provide some goals at times.

Their midfield remains pretty strong with Black, Power, Rischitelli, Sherman and Rich very classy, and the aforementioned kids Rockliff and Redden for support.

The Lions still produce good patches of footy each week and that in itself makes them dangerous. But with injuries and conditioning being a problem all year they struggle to sustain momentum over four quarters of a game.

Merrett will take Franklin, and Gilham should get Fevola but the Lions need to tag Luke Hodge and probably Cyril Rioli if they are to have any chance of causing an upset and keeping the faintest of doors open in 2010.

Daniel Rich played off half back last week and was very dangerous so he will most likely get some attention this week from the Hawks coaching staff.

A barometer for when a team is playing well tends to be the pressure indicators. In the first seven weeks the Hawks were ranked 14th for tackles. In the last eight weeks they have been ranked third.

In the past five weeks the Hawks have outscored their opponents by an average of four goals in first quarters, the Lions conversely have been slow starters for a lot of the season.

Brisbane will need to sharpen up by foot as well as they are the number one clanger team in the comp this year.

On paper, there doesn't appear to be much between the sides. However in the areas that matter, such as form and confidence, they are poles apart.

Hawthorn by 44 points.

No comments:

Post a Comment