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Monday, July 12, 2010

Preview- Adel vs Geel Round 16

Adelaide vs Geelong - Round 16 Aami Stadium

Adelaide 10th - 6 wins 9 losses - 92.48%
Geelong 1st - 12 wins 3 losses - 146.35%

The Crows have resurrected their season after a disastrous start that saw them lose their first six games and they now, quite unbelievably sit just two wins outside the eight.
It confirms a suspicion we probably all had that the Crows were a pretty good side playing poorly.
This week they come up against the competitions number one team in Geelong who are coming off a classic two point win over Hawthorn last week in one of the games of the season.
Adelaide's unlikely run to the finals hinges largely on this result given they face all of last year's top four in the run home, and also a resurgent Richmond at the MCG.

The Crows probably need to win six of their last seven so a loss friday night would probably cripple them.
But how will they beat this super Geelong unit that continues to press on despite a large injury list for much of the season?
The key is quick ball movement and to isolate some of their more nimble forwards as to beat the Cats you cannot be forced to just pump the ball long inside 50.
The most affective way to beat the Cats has been to run the ball inside the arc, and use your legs and rely on your smalls in attack.
The long ball in makes life easy for Scarlett and Taylor and they will have a picnic.
Geelong's three losses this year have seen a host of runners do the damage against them in attack. It's very rare that a key forward gets hold of them.
Adelaide have been lifted by the form of it's younger midfield brigade with Vince, Douglas and Scott Thompson leading the charge.
Kurt Tippett has found his best form from 2009 whilst Walker, Dangerfield and young Henderson are doing a lot of damage in attack.
The Geelong defence presents a different challenge though with Taylor, Scarlett, Milburn, Mackie, Lonergan and Hunt more then capable of restricting the in form Crows forward line.

Expect Scarlett to take Tippett and try to hurt him on the counter attack.
Taylor will probably go to Henderson which is a massive ask for the young Bacchus Marsh boy against a man who will most likely be the All Australian centre half back.

Joel Corey should return for the Cats in the middle of the ground which is where they should exploit the Crows midfield which although talented, doesn't bat as deep as Geelong's.

Expect Ottens to be better for the run too and he and Blake should take the points against Maric and Griffen in the ruck battle.

Geelong will welcome back Cameron Mooney from a two match suspension which should take some pressure off Podsiadly in attack.

Byrnes, Varcoe and Stokes have all been in good touch and throw in the spread from the midfield and it's hard to see Adelaide putting the clamps on Geelong enough to take the points.

Expect Rutten to get Mooney, and perhaps Stevens to have a crack at J-Pod. Davis, Symes and Johncock will then have big jobs on the smalls in Geelong's forward line.

Jaensch, Sloane, Armstrong and even Symes have all added plenty to the crows in terms of spark as they prepare for life without Edwards, Goodwin and Burton but whilst wins over Melbourne, Essendon and Westcoast are something, the cats are a hole different ball game.

Although the Crows have the capacity to make this game competitive they won't have enough accross the board to defeat the Cats who have too many answers.

Geelong by 31 points.

1 comment:

  1. It would be great to see the cats end the crows good form and weaken them for their clash with the mighty tigers in a couple of weeks. Richmond is yet to beat a Melbourne team but has the scalp of 5 of the 6 interstate teams... An easy win to the cats should allow Richmond the oportunity to strike on our way to 9th position!

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