Preview - Coll vs St.K Round 16

Collingwood vs St.Kilda - MCG - Saturday afternoon

Collingwood - 3rd -11-3-1 - 132.59%
St.Kilda - 2nd - 12-3 - 128.12%

Two of the competitions best sides will lock horns at the MCG on Saturday afternoon in a mouth watering contest.

Melbourne had experienced a Saturday afternoon drought with no games in town for a month on what was once the premier day for football, however last week's Hawthorn v Geelong classic more then made up for lost time and you can expect this game to be every bit as good.

Collingwood had to work hard last week against a Port Adelaide side that was always going to be fired up in the wake of Mark Williams resignation, but their efforts against the breeze in the third quarter were excellent and they went on to record a 26 point win.

The Saints welcomed back champion Nick Riewoldt but also had to fight all the way to defeat a gallant Lions outfit by 14 points at the Gabba.

Expect the big blond saint to be better for the run, as his second half last week suggested some of the cobwebs were blowing away after three months out of the game.

St.Kilda have won their past seven matches and are building nicely towards another September assault whilst the Pies have in many ways flown under the radar this year which is surprising giving the attention the club usually draws.

St.Kilda have also won the last four meetings between these sides by an average of 45 points so it's an important game for the Magpies who's major stumbling block time and again in the last two years been defeating either the Saints or Geelong in a big game.

Between now and september they play each of them again and if they can snare a win it will do wonders for their confidence come the finals.

St.Kilda's pressure has been the big factor in recent meetings between these sides, and their ability to restrict Collingwood's forward line in particular Didak, Cloke and Davis who have had poor records of late against the boys from Moorabbin.

Cloke will not be there this time after a two match ban handed down by the match review panel and Davis is probably a 50/50 bet to return.

The Pies strength this year has been it's spread of goalkickers. It has had at least ten different goal scorers in a game on nine occasions this year which is the best of any team in the comp, they will need to use this versatility to full affect to exploit the Saints who are the best at restricting teams from scoring.

Collingwood generally play a wide style where they build around the boundary line and they face the Saints who are the best at dragging teams back into the corridor which makes this game a fascinating battle of contrasting styles.

Collingwood have allowed the opposition to kick 79% of their scores from the centre corridor this year which is number three in the comp, if they allow this to happen on Saturday they will lose.

Collingwood have been tackled on average just 55 times in the last six weeks, the lowest of any team in the comp, and their ability to create space is a strength, a large factor in this is that they are the number one team in the comp for interchange rotations which makes them a hard side to lock down on.

St.Kilda have conceded on average just 43 inside fifties a game over that seven week winning run which is five fewer then any other team so the Pies will need to take their chances, and improve on their record from set shots which is just 46%, the worst in the AFL.

The key to beating St.Kilda is to isolate their defenders. The Saints are easily the best defensive unit in the competition, but they can be vulnerable when isolated one on one through the likes of Dawson, Blake and even Gilbert.

Dawes is important for Collingwood, he creates a contest on every occasion and sets up opportunities for the midfield and smaller Collingwood forwards to capitalise on. Without Cloke, a lot of pressure sits on his shoulders.

It will be interesting to see if Fraser returns for this clash given the absence of Cloke in the front half.

St.Kilda should welcome back Brendan Goddard who had a virus last week and will be hoping that Justin Koschitzke has recovered from an ankle injury that has kept him out of the past two games.

Expect Presti to get the job on Riewoldt if he stays close to goal, Maxwell may get the job if he pushes further afield, provided the Pies skipper is fit to play.

Harry O'Brien usually plays on Milne and does a fair job so expect that match up again, Toovey is another option for the in form goal sneak, or perhaps even Schneider.

At the other end Dawson will get Dawes, and the Pies will need offensive lock downs on Sam Gilbert and possibly Fisher who generate so much drive for the Saints off half back.

Heath Shaw needs the same home work at the Saints end and expect Mcqualter to be that man.

In the middle it's Hayes, Dal Santo, Montagna, Jones, Goddard, Ray and Gram against Swan, Pendlebury, Ball, Thomas, Beams, Johnson and Wellingham in what is a super battle.

St.Kilda might feel the affects of a very humid night in Brisbane last week, but with Goddard returning, Riewoldt and Gram better for the run, the Saints should fair ok.

Collingwood need to take a scalp like this to build genuine belief that they can win a flag and they will be in the game up to their eye balls, but the Saints look to have the edge in a few key areas and should win again.

St.Kilda by 12 points.