Cartlon vs Sydney -Etihad Stadium - Sunday
Carlton 7th - 8-7 - 107.80%
Sydney 6th - 8-7 - 108.70%
The Swans arrive at Etihad Stadium having won 12 of their past 13 against Carlton dating back to the year 2000.
The plus for the Blues is that the one win in all of that was their most recent meeting late last season.
It's difficult to get a form line on the Blues, where as the Swans have been pretty straight forward.
Sydney have not beaten a single team in the eight this year, and have beaten every team they have played outside the eight except Richmond who got them by four points a fortnight ago.
So it's reasonable to suggest that a game against the swans is a barometer for where you sit in the big scheme of things.
Which means it is a game that has come at the perfect time for a Carlton side that must be questioning where it belongs after three losses from four games in the past month.
The Blues use of the ball killed them against the Bulldogs who are the side that is most likely to punish you for loose and sloppy football.
Carlton's midfield is A Grade but at the moment, aside from Chris Judd, it is struggling for consistency.
Marc Murphy is a terrific player, but whilst his posession tally remains high, he is not having the same impact that he did last year.
Hampson and Jacobs seem to be working well together, and they will need to be on their mettle against the Swans who have Mumford in terrific form.
The Bulldogs rebounding half backs Gilbee, Lake and co destroyed Carlton, and they will need to put the clamps on Nick Malceski who is in All Australian form, Rhyce Shaw and Tadhg Kennelly or they risk the same thing happening again.
Adam Goodes found some form last week, but Paul Roos needs to leave him in the middle. He is smart enough to push forward when need be and do damage and he is a tough one to find a match up for.
Paul Bower will be better for the run, and Jamison will be keen to atone for the belting he copped at the hands of Barry Hall last week.
With Daniel Bradshaw out, life will be a bit easier for him this week.
The Swans rely heavily on goals from small to mediums, such as O'Keefe, Mcglynn, Goodes and the onball brigade.
Carlton are much the same at their end, O'Hailpin has struggled this last month, whilst Yarran and Garlett drift in and out of games which is customary for small forwards.
Eddie Betts is enjoying a career best season and the Swans will need to put the clamps on him.
Speaking of clamps, Brett Kirk will sit on Chris Judd all afternoon in what should be a fascinating battle.
The Blues score a lot of goals on the burst and use their quick ball movement, and are number two in the AFL at scoring goals from stoppages.
Sydney on the other hand allow it's opponents to win a clearance from a stoppage just 35% of the time which is number one in the AFL. If Sydney restrict Carlton to that extent, they will more then likely beat them.
Sydney are also very good at restricting opposition run out of defence, teams generally go inside fifty just 25% of the time once they rebound it from the other end against the Bloods, so Carlton will need to take their chances, and be good by foot to capitalise on the limited chances the Swans give them.
Sydney rarely get opened up in games, whilst the Blues tend to win well when they do with an average margin of 44 points this year.
It is a fascinating battle of sides that play the game very differently.
Sydney are an honest side who are firmly in the middle of the road category, but you can't beat them without being sharp and playing well, and right at this point in time, the Blues aren't either of those two.
It's a very risky bet, as Carlton are the more dynamic of the two sides, but Sydney have the capacity to lock down on a Blues side that's not enjoying it's best moment in the sun right now.
Sydney by 8 points
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