North Melbourne vs St.Kilda - Etihad Stadium - Sunday
North Melbourne -9th - 9-10 - 86.71%
St.Kilda - 3rd - 13-5-1 - 121.84%
The Kangaroos enter Round 20 with their destiny in their own hands as they search for an upset victory that could pave the way for a finals berth.
With all the hype around Melbourne, and the headlines captured by Hawthorn and Carlton in recent weeks, the Kangaroos have quietly snuck up to 9th and could potentially be in the eight come sunday night if they win and the hawks lose.
Last week was one of their most complete performances of the season with a crushing victory over an admittedly dissapointing Fremantle.
They dominated the stoppages, smashed Freo in space with nearly 100 more uncontested posessions and put through 19 goals in a polished and slick performance.
Hamish McIntosh and Todd Goldstein are probably the best ruck combination in the game at present and they fully exploited the absence of Aaron Sandilands from the Freo line up and had 39 hit outs and 42 posessions between them.
St.Kilda will provide a bit more resistance at the stoppages but will be missing main man Michael Gardiner in the ruck so it is an area the Kangaroos can focus on.
They have had real problems against top sides this year North Melbourne, with a 71 point loss to the Bulldogs just a fortnight ago the most recent in a spate of beltings against the top four to six teams in the competition.
Brent Harvey is in some of the best form of his career at present, regularly racking up big numbers and pushing forward to hit the scoreboard each week, and whilst he is the old (with all due respect), it is the young that must be pleasing Roos fans.
Swallow, Greenwood, Garlett, Bastinac and Cunnington have all had excellent years and you can throw in Liam Anthony who has missed much of the season with a shoulder injury.
Goldstein is only young as well so when people talk of emerging sides in the competition and mention Melbourne and Richmond, then surely the Kangaroos must be right up there as well.
When they play their best footy, it's when they are taking the game on and using their pace. They have played on 51% of the time from a mark in the past seven weeks and whilst it can occasionally bring them unstuck against top sides who pressure them, they simply have to persist with it as it suits the group and as they grow with experience, they will gain the necessary composure to eliminate errors.
One area North Melbourne have struggled in is clearances. They had just 21 last week, despite the big win which was the lowest of the round by any side. They have also had 29 less centre clearances then their opponents this season, ranked last.
They can't afford to relinquish control in this area to the Saints who destroyed them in Round 2.
For the Saints, last week was a pleasing return to form even if it came against a deplorable Port Adelaide side.
The pleasing thing for the Saints was they had 13 goalkickers, nearly 500 disposals, got plenty of run out of Gilbert and Fisher and also restricted Port Adelaide's number of forward fity entries.
It was a return to "saints footy" that would have put a smile on Ross Lyon's face.
They were smart when going forward, and used plenty of options rather then simply going long to Riewoldt at all times which has got them into trouble.
They won seven in a row without the big centre half forward, and found many avenues to goal and if they are too win the flag, they need to keep bringing these options into the game as versatility is required against the best defences.
They will face more resistance then they did last week, that's for sure, but it was a step in the right direction with September close.
North Melbourne will keep you honest at all times, and it presents another good challenge for St.Kilda in the lead up to finals.
With the faltering form of Fremantle, they should be safe in the top four, but need to hit september in good form.
St.Kilda has won it's inside fifty count by at least 15 against the Roos in their last 5 meetings, and over the past month have recorded a disposal efficicency of 78% which is the best in the competition, surprising given they have won just once in that time.
Nick Riewoldt played his best game too date since his return to the side and he has an excellent record against North Melbourne. Expect Grima to get him, Thompson to play on Milne like he did last time, and Pratt or Firito to get Koschitzke.
Adam Schneider is in probably career best form at present, so will need close checking.
At the other end Lachie Hansen might draw Gwilt or Fisher, with Edwards likely to get Blake and Warren to get whoever is left over from the Hansen match up, either Gwilt or Fisher.
Jones will re acquiant himself with Brent Harvey who had just five touches last time these sides met.
Greenwood will most likely tag Dal Santo, whilst Brady Rawlings might get Montagna.
The Kangaroos have improved a lot since Round 2, so they won't meet the same fate they did that night, and will be desperate on Sunday given they are essentially playing for their season.
If they lose this game, they will need other results to fall their way if they are to play finals this year which is not an ideal situation.
Their midfield is classy but young and they still have a few blokes out of the side who could have provided a bit more depth and experience.
St.Kilda will take plenty out of what they did last week and will continue to build for september with a win this weekend.
Defensively the Roos are developing but will need to restrict St.Kilda around the stoppages to avoid the supply coming down, because if the saints go down their often enough they have enough class to punch through.
Even with a few blokes out down back I think the Saints defence will be able to deny North Melbourne's forwards enough opportunities to kick a winning score.
Expect this to be competitive for a lot of the day, but the Saints are a bit too mature, experienced and classy at this stage for the emerging Roos.
St.Kilda by 27 points
Friday, August 13, 2010
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Preview - Hawthorn vs Melbourne - Round 20
Hawthorn vs Melbourne - MCG - Sunday
Hawthorn - 8th - 9-9-1 - 103.49%
Melbourne - 10th - 8-10-1 - 97.09%
The MCG will host a virtual elimination final on Sunday afternoon when the Hawks take on the rapidly improving young Demons.
For Melbourne, another week saw more improvement and another four points against the plucky Tigers.
The game was tight for three quarters, and given Melbourne had played on a humid night at the Gabba a week earlier, many were backing Richmond to finish the stronger.
But it was the young Demons who kicked six goals to two in the last quarter to run away with the game.
Liam Jurrah played his best game for the season, possibly for the club with four goals from eight shots, Jack Watts played a good second half whilst Wonaemirri, Green and Dunn all played well.
Melbourne's forward line is extremely under regarded at present. They had just 47 inside fifties last week for 16 goals which is a great conversion.
In fact accross the season they are averaging just 43 inside fifties a game, ranked last in the league but in the past seven weeks they are the 5th highest scoring team going around.
The Dees are a very efficient side, they have the highest kick to handball ratio in the league, the best conversion rate whilst inside fifty, and they take more uncontested marks inside the arc then anyone else.
They spread from contests well and push into space and back themselves by foot. The likes of Scully, Sylvia, Jones, Bruce and Davey are all in top form and the rapid maturing of this team is something quite special.
They have some work to do no doubt, and there is a long way to go, but the spectre of finals is something that must excite all Demons fans given the pain of the past four years.
They probably cannot make the eight unless they win all three of their remaining games though which means they cannot miss a beat.
For the Hawks, the past fortnight has been horrendous given the progress made since Round 7, and thoughts have shifted from winning a flag to just making the eight, something which is by no means assured.
Melbourne and the Kangaroos sit below them on the table but both are in good form, have reasonable draws (don't face Collingwood like the Hawks) and have lifted with the scent of September action.
The problem for Hawthorn seems to be that they have hit a wall after several weeks of high intensity.
The issue was their start, when you give yourselves so much work to do just to get your season back on an even kiel it means you have to play every week at high intensity, every week is must win and it is impossible to sustain that over a 13-17 week period.
They did wonderfully well to get back into the season but the Saints draw seems to have knocked the stuffing out of them.
They now must win the next two games starting Sunday to put themselves back in the finals mix where, whilst they cannot win the flag, they could still cause some grief due to their experience.
An example of a tiring side is their ability to break clear into space, and in the past five weeks Hawthorn are ranked last for uncontested posessions.
Around the stoppages they have been very good, with a number of big bodies, but accross the board they lack a bit of leg speed which does expose them when they are bit off the boil.
Defensively the Hawks are still vulnerable, but the rolling zone they used so well in 2008 has been quite effective this year too. They allow sides just 42 forward entries a game, which is second only to St.Kilda this season.
Melbourne's forward line is unpredictable and can pose problems though so they will need to be sharp.
Campbell Brown should get Jurrah, Stratton will take Dunn, Gilham on Green, Guerra on Wonaemirri are some of the other possible match ups.
The rapidly emerging James Frawley should get Franklin, with Matthew Warnock a chance to return and play on Roughead.
Cyril Rioli's pace will be missed again, but Brown's return should provide some hardness.
Melbourne are better in space, Hawthorn are better in close.
Both have potent forward lines, that test you in different ways, and Melbourne should hold an edge in the ruck with Jamar.
Momentum is a significant thing in football and the young dees have it at the moment.
Hawthorn are showing some concerning signs that perhaps they have hit a bit of a roadblock and for that reason I think the Dees might get the job done in this one.
With their midfield runners all up and about and using the ball with confidence, their forward line causing problems and the competitions in form defender James Frawley I think Melbourne have enough to win this.
The pressure of such a big game, and the lure of finals pose a challenge for them though. Never has this group been in such a position and it will be interesting to see how they handle it.
I think they'll be just fine and the excitement levels will intensify around these young Demons come Sunday night.
Melbourne by 10 points
Hawthorn - 8th - 9-9-1 - 103.49%
Melbourne - 10th - 8-10-1 - 97.09%
The MCG will host a virtual elimination final on Sunday afternoon when the Hawks take on the rapidly improving young Demons.
For Melbourne, another week saw more improvement and another four points against the plucky Tigers.
The game was tight for three quarters, and given Melbourne had played on a humid night at the Gabba a week earlier, many were backing Richmond to finish the stronger.
But it was the young Demons who kicked six goals to two in the last quarter to run away with the game.
Liam Jurrah played his best game for the season, possibly for the club with four goals from eight shots, Jack Watts played a good second half whilst Wonaemirri, Green and Dunn all played well.
Melbourne's forward line is extremely under regarded at present. They had just 47 inside fifties last week for 16 goals which is a great conversion.
In fact accross the season they are averaging just 43 inside fifties a game, ranked last in the league but in the past seven weeks they are the 5th highest scoring team going around.
The Dees are a very efficient side, they have the highest kick to handball ratio in the league, the best conversion rate whilst inside fifty, and they take more uncontested marks inside the arc then anyone else.
They spread from contests well and push into space and back themselves by foot. The likes of Scully, Sylvia, Jones, Bruce and Davey are all in top form and the rapid maturing of this team is something quite special.
They have some work to do no doubt, and there is a long way to go, but the spectre of finals is something that must excite all Demons fans given the pain of the past four years.
They probably cannot make the eight unless they win all three of their remaining games though which means they cannot miss a beat.
For the Hawks, the past fortnight has been horrendous given the progress made since Round 7, and thoughts have shifted from winning a flag to just making the eight, something which is by no means assured.
Melbourne and the Kangaroos sit below them on the table but both are in good form, have reasonable draws (don't face Collingwood like the Hawks) and have lifted with the scent of September action.
The problem for Hawthorn seems to be that they have hit a wall after several weeks of high intensity.
The issue was their start, when you give yourselves so much work to do just to get your season back on an even kiel it means you have to play every week at high intensity, every week is must win and it is impossible to sustain that over a 13-17 week period.
They did wonderfully well to get back into the season but the Saints draw seems to have knocked the stuffing out of them.
They now must win the next two games starting Sunday to put themselves back in the finals mix where, whilst they cannot win the flag, they could still cause some grief due to their experience.
An example of a tiring side is their ability to break clear into space, and in the past five weeks Hawthorn are ranked last for uncontested posessions.
Around the stoppages they have been very good, with a number of big bodies, but accross the board they lack a bit of leg speed which does expose them when they are bit off the boil.
Defensively the Hawks are still vulnerable, but the rolling zone they used so well in 2008 has been quite effective this year too. They allow sides just 42 forward entries a game, which is second only to St.Kilda this season.
Melbourne's forward line is unpredictable and can pose problems though so they will need to be sharp.
Campbell Brown should get Jurrah, Stratton will take Dunn, Gilham on Green, Guerra on Wonaemirri are some of the other possible match ups.
The rapidly emerging James Frawley should get Franklin, with Matthew Warnock a chance to return and play on Roughead.
Cyril Rioli's pace will be missed again, but Brown's return should provide some hardness.
Melbourne are better in space, Hawthorn are better in close.
Both have potent forward lines, that test you in different ways, and Melbourne should hold an edge in the ruck with Jamar.
Momentum is a significant thing in football and the young dees have it at the moment.
Hawthorn are showing some concerning signs that perhaps they have hit a bit of a roadblock and for that reason I think the Dees might get the job done in this one.
With their midfield runners all up and about and using the ball with confidence, their forward line causing problems and the competitions in form defender James Frawley I think Melbourne have enough to win this.
The pressure of such a big game, and the lure of finals pose a challenge for them though. Never has this group been in such a position and it will be interesting to see how they handle it.
I think they'll be just fine and the excitement levels will intensify around these young Demons come Sunday night.
Melbourne by 10 points
Preview - Brisbane vs Adelaide - Round 20
Brisbane vs Adelaide at the Gabba - Sunday
Brisbane - 14th - 6-13- 80.59%
Adelaide - 11th - 7-12 - 91.74%
Brisbane and Adelaide will compete for nothing more then bragging rights this Sunday in what still promises to be a fascinating game.
For the Adelaide Crows, a long and arduous season is finally over with last week's loss confirming they will not play finals in 2010.
The recovery has been a brave one, and they were stiff on the weekend, but the reality is they left themselves too much to do and like the Hawks you can sense a bit of fatigue.
Last week was a game they would have won a month ago, but they just didn't have the run in the legs or sharpness to break through against a solid Bulldogs side who was under duress.
A few times just one last link in the chain would break down, and they would turn the ball over with one too many handballs.
They perhaps didn't play the conditions all that smartly either, particularly in the second half when they had the better of the contest in general play, but pushed a couple of numbers back when they should have rolled the dice.
The Dogs were ripe for the picking, but they need to be commended for keeping the Crows out.
Chris Knights returned and was solid, the Porpoise and Walker were dangerous as always whilst Tippett found the conditions tough.
These guys provide an unpredictable mix that could stretch the Lions provided they get enough clean ball down there.
In saying that though, the Crows have scored a goal from just 21% of inside fifties, but that's largely due to innacuracy. In the past three weeks the Crows have kicked 9.15, 11.14 and 7.11 which means they are going at around 43% over that period which is unnaceptable.
The Crows are generally good travellers but have won just one of their past eight games interstate, and have failed to top the ton in all of them.
They have improved in clearance work though, but they are the most tackled midfield group in the competition which I think is brought about by a bit of hesitation when going forward. Often they try to run the ball down the ground by hand, ala Geelong rather then backing their forwards one out.
They have a solid forward line, they just confuse themselves at times with their own build ups.
For the Lions last week was a gutsy win with the big skipper on one leg. It may have been a touch fortunate but one they deserved all the same.
The second quarter was some of their finest footy for a long while and whilst they were only playing the Eagles it is something they can build on.
Jonathan Brown's selection will probably decide this result given the lack of scoring versatility beyond the big man.
With Fevola out, Cornelius has a chance to step up, but he is very raw. Banfield, Brennan and the midfield group shoulder a fair bit of scoring responsibility to support Brown, and if the captain doesn't play, I don't think the Lions can produce the score.
If he does though, they probably win as not only will he snag four or five, but he brings other players into the contest.
In the past nine weeks, the Lions are the lowest scoring team in the competition, averaging just 67 points a game.
They are also averaging a score from just 46% of forward entries and most of that is attributed to sloppy ball use.
The Lions disposal efficiency has been poor all year, but the Crows aren't the best pressure side in the comp through the middle so the Lions should enjoy a bit more freedom.
I think Rutten will get Brown if he plays, and Cornelius will probably have Bock for company.
Banfield will have to be tight on Johncock to restrict his attack off half back.
Merrett will get Tippett who has been down on form, Patfull should get Walker, whilst Mcgrath will try to do a number on the porpoise like he did on Mark LeCras last week.
If form and method is anything to go by this will be a tight low scoring affair.
Black, Power, Rischitelli and Brennan in the middle will face the likes of Mackay, Vince, Van Berlo and Thompson and there isn't a lot in that midfield battle, I just think the Lions are a five goal better side at home, and the tired crows have lost their travel legs this season and might not have enough in the tank to topple the desperate home side keen to finish the season with some momentum.
After the year from hell, the Lions will win two in a row and push themselves clear of the bottom two.
.......Provided Brown plays.
Brisbane by 12 points
Brisbane - 14th - 6-13- 80.59%
Adelaide - 11th - 7-12 - 91.74%
Brisbane and Adelaide will compete for nothing more then bragging rights this Sunday in what still promises to be a fascinating game.
For the Adelaide Crows, a long and arduous season is finally over with last week's loss confirming they will not play finals in 2010.
The recovery has been a brave one, and they were stiff on the weekend, but the reality is they left themselves too much to do and like the Hawks you can sense a bit of fatigue.
Last week was a game they would have won a month ago, but they just didn't have the run in the legs or sharpness to break through against a solid Bulldogs side who was under duress.
A few times just one last link in the chain would break down, and they would turn the ball over with one too many handballs.
They perhaps didn't play the conditions all that smartly either, particularly in the second half when they had the better of the contest in general play, but pushed a couple of numbers back when they should have rolled the dice.
The Dogs were ripe for the picking, but they need to be commended for keeping the Crows out.
Chris Knights returned and was solid, the Porpoise and Walker were dangerous as always whilst Tippett found the conditions tough.
These guys provide an unpredictable mix that could stretch the Lions provided they get enough clean ball down there.
In saying that though, the Crows have scored a goal from just 21% of inside fifties, but that's largely due to innacuracy. In the past three weeks the Crows have kicked 9.15, 11.14 and 7.11 which means they are going at around 43% over that period which is unnaceptable.
The Crows are generally good travellers but have won just one of their past eight games interstate, and have failed to top the ton in all of them.
They have improved in clearance work though, but they are the most tackled midfield group in the competition which I think is brought about by a bit of hesitation when going forward. Often they try to run the ball down the ground by hand, ala Geelong rather then backing their forwards one out.
They have a solid forward line, they just confuse themselves at times with their own build ups.
For the Lions last week was a gutsy win with the big skipper on one leg. It may have been a touch fortunate but one they deserved all the same.
The second quarter was some of their finest footy for a long while and whilst they were only playing the Eagles it is something they can build on.
Jonathan Brown's selection will probably decide this result given the lack of scoring versatility beyond the big man.
With Fevola out, Cornelius has a chance to step up, but he is very raw. Banfield, Brennan and the midfield group shoulder a fair bit of scoring responsibility to support Brown, and if the captain doesn't play, I don't think the Lions can produce the score.
If he does though, they probably win as not only will he snag four or five, but he brings other players into the contest.
In the past nine weeks, the Lions are the lowest scoring team in the competition, averaging just 67 points a game.
They are also averaging a score from just 46% of forward entries and most of that is attributed to sloppy ball use.
The Lions disposal efficiency has been poor all year, but the Crows aren't the best pressure side in the comp through the middle so the Lions should enjoy a bit more freedom.
I think Rutten will get Brown if he plays, and Cornelius will probably have Bock for company.
Banfield will have to be tight on Johncock to restrict his attack off half back.
Merrett will get Tippett who has been down on form, Patfull should get Walker, whilst Mcgrath will try to do a number on the porpoise like he did on Mark LeCras last week.
If form and method is anything to go by this will be a tight low scoring affair.
Black, Power, Rischitelli and Brennan in the middle will face the likes of Mackay, Vince, Van Berlo and Thompson and there isn't a lot in that midfield battle, I just think the Lions are a five goal better side at home, and the tired crows have lost their travel legs this season and might not have enough in the tank to topple the desperate home side keen to finish the season with some momentum.
After the year from hell, the Lions will win two in a row and push themselves clear of the bottom two.
.......Provided Brown plays.
Brisbane by 12 points
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Preview - Port Adelaide vs Westcoast - Round 20
Port Adelaide vs Westcoast - Aami Stadium - Saturday Night
Port Adelaide 13th - 7-12- 77.84%
West Coast 16th - 4-15 - 76.90%
The Power and the Eagles will lock horns on saturday night in one of the more irrelevant games of the season.
Westcoast are just about assured of a wooden spoon, whilst Port Adelaide's mathematical finals chances dissapeared last week in a horrendous display at Etihad.
The fact I am even mentioning finals in the same sentence as Port is farcical, but some still held out hope. Even that hope is now gone, but for Matthew Primus the next three weeks are about an audition for the future.
Last week could not have helped his cause one little bit, and given the progress made in previous weeks it was a horrible outcome.
A 94 point loss to St.Kilda after two really good weeks was embarrassing and it represented the reason why Mark Williams lost his job in the first place.
This team has a tendency to roll over far too easily and for Primus it would have been extremely dissapointing given the spirit shown in his first few games at the helm.
The wins over Adelaide and Hawthorn had lifted spirits and it was the commitment shown in those games that would have stood out to everyone.
But in trademark Port Adelaide fashion, it dissapeared as quickly as it arrived and the resistance was nil against the Saints.
St.Kilda are one of the competitions top sides admittedly, and they played extremely well but this next three weeks is super important for Primus, and several Port players at the crossroads.
They will enjoy being back at home this week against the worst team in the league but the Eagles are at least having a crack and have a few players capable of hurting the Power if given a free reign.
Last week Westcoast were unlucky in many ways not to down the Lions with a contentious non free kick late in the game but they had other chances and will rue some missed shots early in the last.
The loss means they will almost certainly win the wooden spoon for the first time, and for John Worsfold that could be fatal.
So we have two coaches possibly fighting for survival in the last three weeks of the season which adds to the intrigue of what otherwise should be a scrappy, poorly attended messy affair.
Mark Le Cras was well held last week, and Kennedy had to fight hard all afternoon and these two remain the keys in attack.
Young players Strjik, Stephens, Ebert and co are showing some good signs and a couple of young defenders look ok so they can at least start to put a platform in place.
Use of the ball is the big issue with the Eagles, statistically they have the worst disposal efficiency accross the season and time and time again that brings them undone.
Defensive pressure needs to improve as well, the Eagles conceed 57 inside fifties per game on average, which is the worst record in the competition. Port Adelaide's small/medium forwards should relish the supply if it comes down that frequently and Jay Schulz remains in good form.
Historically Aami Stadium is not a happy hunting ground for Westcoast, having never reached 100 points in a game there, and losing their past five by an average of 56 points.
Defensively Brown should get Westhoff, Mackenzie or Schofield might take Schulz with Ebert and Grey the keys to Port's success.
Both are in good form and if Port get good supply, they should have enough to kick a winning score.
At the other end of the ground, Chaplin might get LeCras, but pace will be an issue there. Logan is another option but might not have the height to go with him.
Carlisle will take either Kennedy or Lynch with Daniel Stewart likely to get the other.
Defence is an issue for Port Adelaide as well, who have been conceeding a score from 55% of opposition inside fifties this season.
They are however conceeding only 48% of goals from set shots which ranks highly in the comp so they are effective at bringing it to ground.
Unfortunately last week they conceeded so many easy goals from overlap play where St.Kilda had so many free men everywhere that it didn't matter how well their key backs played.
If they offer the Eagles that freedom, then they could be punished as the win over Essendon a few weeks back demonstrates that Westcoast can be dangerous when free.
In a game between a side I don't trust, and another that is just no good I am backing the home side to get the job done here and produce an eighth win of the season and in the process improve Matthew Primus's chances of taking the coaching job long term.
The Eagles are poor travellers and don't quite have the sharpness of ball use to take advantage of Port Adelaide's unaccountability.
It won't be pretty, but Port will win.
Port Adelaide by 18 points
Port Adelaide 13th - 7-12- 77.84%
West Coast 16th - 4-15 - 76.90%
The Power and the Eagles will lock horns on saturday night in one of the more irrelevant games of the season.
Westcoast are just about assured of a wooden spoon, whilst Port Adelaide's mathematical finals chances dissapeared last week in a horrendous display at Etihad.
The fact I am even mentioning finals in the same sentence as Port is farcical, but some still held out hope. Even that hope is now gone, but for Matthew Primus the next three weeks are about an audition for the future.
Last week could not have helped his cause one little bit, and given the progress made in previous weeks it was a horrible outcome.
A 94 point loss to St.Kilda after two really good weeks was embarrassing and it represented the reason why Mark Williams lost his job in the first place.
This team has a tendency to roll over far too easily and for Primus it would have been extremely dissapointing given the spirit shown in his first few games at the helm.
The wins over Adelaide and Hawthorn had lifted spirits and it was the commitment shown in those games that would have stood out to everyone.
But in trademark Port Adelaide fashion, it dissapeared as quickly as it arrived and the resistance was nil against the Saints.
St.Kilda are one of the competitions top sides admittedly, and they played extremely well but this next three weeks is super important for Primus, and several Port players at the crossroads.
They will enjoy being back at home this week against the worst team in the league but the Eagles are at least having a crack and have a few players capable of hurting the Power if given a free reign.
Last week Westcoast were unlucky in many ways not to down the Lions with a contentious non free kick late in the game but they had other chances and will rue some missed shots early in the last.
The loss means they will almost certainly win the wooden spoon for the first time, and for John Worsfold that could be fatal.
So we have two coaches possibly fighting for survival in the last three weeks of the season which adds to the intrigue of what otherwise should be a scrappy, poorly attended messy affair.
Mark Le Cras was well held last week, and Kennedy had to fight hard all afternoon and these two remain the keys in attack.
Young players Strjik, Stephens, Ebert and co are showing some good signs and a couple of young defenders look ok so they can at least start to put a platform in place.
Use of the ball is the big issue with the Eagles, statistically they have the worst disposal efficiency accross the season and time and time again that brings them undone.
Defensive pressure needs to improve as well, the Eagles conceed 57 inside fifties per game on average, which is the worst record in the competition. Port Adelaide's small/medium forwards should relish the supply if it comes down that frequently and Jay Schulz remains in good form.
Historically Aami Stadium is not a happy hunting ground for Westcoast, having never reached 100 points in a game there, and losing their past five by an average of 56 points.
Defensively Brown should get Westhoff, Mackenzie or Schofield might take Schulz with Ebert and Grey the keys to Port's success.
Both are in good form and if Port get good supply, they should have enough to kick a winning score.
At the other end of the ground, Chaplin might get LeCras, but pace will be an issue there. Logan is another option but might not have the height to go with him.
Carlisle will take either Kennedy or Lynch with Daniel Stewart likely to get the other.
Defence is an issue for Port Adelaide as well, who have been conceeding a score from 55% of opposition inside fifties this season.
They are however conceeding only 48% of goals from set shots which ranks highly in the comp so they are effective at bringing it to ground.
Unfortunately last week they conceeded so many easy goals from overlap play where St.Kilda had so many free men everywhere that it didn't matter how well their key backs played.
If they offer the Eagles that freedom, then they could be punished as the win over Essendon a few weeks back demonstrates that Westcoast can be dangerous when free.
In a game between a side I don't trust, and another that is just no good I am backing the home side to get the job done here and produce an eighth win of the season and in the process improve Matthew Primus's chances of taking the coaching job long term.
The Eagles are poor travellers and don't quite have the sharpness of ball use to take advantage of Port Adelaide's unaccountability.
It won't be pretty, but Port will win.
Port Adelaide by 18 points
Preview - Western Bulldogs vs Geelong - Round 20
Western Bulldogs vs Geelong - Etihad Stadium - Saturday Night
Western Bulldogs -4th - 13-6 - 140.26%
Geelong -2nd - 14-5 - 142.07%
Etihad Stadium will play host to a crucial clash between two top four sides on Saturday night in a match of great significance in shaping the first week of the finals.
Much intrigue surrounds the game as well with several key Bulldogs under a cloud due to a flu virus that has swept through the Kennell.
Higgins, Cooney, Hudson and Murphy are amongst a number of names racing against time to recover for the clash with the reigning champs this week.
Despite this recent unwanted battle, the Bulldogs are flying on field at present and are second only to Collingwood as the form side of the competition.
Their run and spread from the contest, slick movement and gut running to space are all where they should be and they are firmly in the mix to challenge for a flag if they can continue in this vein.
One concern with the Bulldogs has been their ability to claim a really big scalp and beat one of the competitions top sides.
In the past two seasons, St.Kilda, Collingwood, Geelong and the Bulldogs have occupied the top four and it's interesting to assess the record of each side against the rest of that group.
St.Kilda have a 9-2 record, Geelong are 7-4, Collingwood are 5-8 and the Bulldogs are a dissapointing 2-10 which demonstrates they have come up short.
They haven't been far away in a lot of those games but it is very important that they take the scalp of a Geelong before the finals to inject enormous confidence into the group.
Their spread of goalkickers in recent times has been really pleasing also. Until six weeks ago, the Bulldogs were down 70 goals on the same time last year from their six main 2009 forwards Hahn, Johnson, Akermanis, Higgins, Giansiracusa and Murphy.
They have dragged that back to 42 now and with Barry Hall in fine form, the wheel has certainly turned, and the potency is back in full force.
Over the last seven weeks the Bulldogs have averaged 109 points a game which ranks second in the AFL and it's been coming at the excellent accuracy of 64%.
They have also scored 264 points from stoppages this year which shows the attacking nature of their midfield group.
The key, like it is most weeks when it comes to beating these two sides or any for that matter is the pressure on the ball carrier.
Geelong play a high posession, fast, aggressive style of footy and the Bulldogs are probably the best touch footy side in the comp.
They are the most skillful team in it and will hurt you more then any other team in space.
Geelong conceeded 86 points from turnovers last week, mostly due to Collingwood's pressure and the Bulldogs need to replicate that.
Conversely the Cats sit second for tackles this year and the Bulldogs are also susceptible if you crowd up their space and force them into using the ball long as often as possible.
Geelong's defence eat the long ball for breakfast so the Dogs need to gut run into space and be smart and sharp with their build up.
For the Cats last week was a slap in the face but not something they should necessarily be panicking about.
The Pies got hold of them in a big way and it was only due to sheer brilliance from Geelong that they were in the game, but the reality is they were comprehensively outplayed.
Their is no doubt the Cats will need to be at their best to topple the Magpies later in the year, but they had a few blokes short of a gallop and it doesn't necessarily hurt to get a wake up call at this stage of the season.
One thing they do need to sort out is what they do with their big men.
Mooney and Ottens will play, but the issue sits around Hawkins, Blake and Podsiadly.
They have to determine whether they go with Ottens and Blake in the ruck, and play Hawkins forward, or drop Blake, run Hawkins in the ruck and select J-Pod up forward.
I tend to support the latter theory, despite Podsiadly's struggles away from the cattery due to the mobility Hawkins offers up the ground. But the reality is they cannot select all three of the aforementioned players in the same team as it simply makes them too top heavy (See the Carlton loss earlier this year for an example).
Defensively I could see Scarlett taking Hall in a cracking match up, Lonergan might get a crack at Jarred Grant but I'd expect either a Mackie or a Milburn to take him with big Tom getting the resting ruckmen Roughead when he pushes forward.
Josh Hunt is an option for Johnson or Higgins if they play in the front half, and with Harry Taylor unavailable they will have to re-shuffle slightly.
At the other end Lake will take Mooney, Williams should get Podsiadly, Morris will take either Stokes or Chapman whilst Harbrow (if he plays) will get Byrnes in all likelihood.
The Cats, like their opponents rotate midfielders heavily through the front half of the ground to add some unpredictability to the attack and they probably do it better then anyone else.
Ling will try to lock down on Boyd I dare say, whilst Picken might try to limit the Cats main grunt man Joel Selwood.
The Cats have a few factors in their favour this week, with the Dogs battling illness, coming back from interstate after a heavy slog and with one less day to prepare, but the Cats themselves had a bruising encounter.
The Bulldogs for mine appear to be in the better form of the two and I think they might just edge out the boys from down the highway in this one.
Geelong are fine tuning for September in terms of their structure and as a result aren't quite at their best. They have nothing to worry about at all and whilst two straight losses isn't ideal, they went through similar at this time last year and we all know what happened then!
The Bulldogs have a settled unit, an in form midfield group and are playing the best they have since the NAB Cup triumph.
As dynamic as the Cats are, the likes of Cooney, Boyd, Higgins, Griffen, Cross, Gilbee and even Moles and Eagleton are just providing so much running depth at the moment and will thoroughly enjoy Etihad Stadium.
It could go either way in a ripping contest, but the Pups for mine.
Bulldogs by 7 points
Western Bulldogs -4th - 13-6 - 140.26%
Geelong -2nd - 14-5 - 142.07%
Etihad Stadium will play host to a crucial clash between two top four sides on Saturday night in a match of great significance in shaping the first week of the finals.
Much intrigue surrounds the game as well with several key Bulldogs under a cloud due to a flu virus that has swept through the Kennell.
Higgins, Cooney, Hudson and Murphy are amongst a number of names racing against time to recover for the clash with the reigning champs this week.
Despite this recent unwanted battle, the Bulldogs are flying on field at present and are second only to Collingwood as the form side of the competition.
Their run and spread from the contest, slick movement and gut running to space are all where they should be and they are firmly in the mix to challenge for a flag if they can continue in this vein.
One concern with the Bulldogs has been their ability to claim a really big scalp and beat one of the competitions top sides.
In the past two seasons, St.Kilda, Collingwood, Geelong and the Bulldogs have occupied the top four and it's interesting to assess the record of each side against the rest of that group.
St.Kilda have a 9-2 record, Geelong are 7-4, Collingwood are 5-8 and the Bulldogs are a dissapointing 2-10 which demonstrates they have come up short.
They haven't been far away in a lot of those games but it is very important that they take the scalp of a Geelong before the finals to inject enormous confidence into the group.
Their spread of goalkickers in recent times has been really pleasing also. Until six weeks ago, the Bulldogs were down 70 goals on the same time last year from their six main 2009 forwards Hahn, Johnson, Akermanis, Higgins, Giansiracusa and Murphy.
They have dragged that back to 42 now and with Barry Hall in fine form, the wheel has certainly turned, and the potency is back in full force.
Over the last seven weeks the Bulldogs have averaged 109 points a game which ranks second in the AFL and it's been coming at the excellent accuracy of 64%.
They have also scored 264 points from stoppages this year which shows the attacking nature of their midfield group.
The key, like it is most weeks when it comes to beating these two sides or any for that matter is the pressure on the ball carrier.
Geelong play a high posession, fast, aggressive style of footy and the Bulldogs are probably the best touch footy side in the comp.
They are the most skillful team in it and will hurt you more then any other team in space.
Geelong conceeded 86 points from turnovers last week, mostly due to Collingwood's pressure and the Bulldogs need to replicate that.
Conversely the Cats sit second for tackles this year and the Bulldogs are also susceptible if you crowd up their space and force them into using the ball long as often as possible.
Geelong's defence eat the long ball for breakfast so the Dogs need to gut run into space and be smart and sharp with their build up.
For the Cats last week was a slap in the face but not something they should necessarily be panicking about.
The Pies got hold of them in a big way and it was only due to sheer brilliance from Geelong that they were in the game, but the reality is they were comprehensively outplayed.
Their is no doubt the Cats will need to be at their best to topple the Magpies later in the year, but they had a few blokes short of a gallop and it doesn't necessarily hurt to get a wake up call at this stage of the season.
One thing they do need to sort out is what they do with their big men.
Mooney and Ottens will play, but the issue sits around Hawkins, Blake and Podsiadly.
They have to determine whether they go with Ottens and Blake in the ruck, and play Hawkins forward, or drop Blake, run Hawkins in the ruck and select J-Pod up forward.
I tend to support the latter theory, despite Podsiadly's struggles away from the cattery due to the mobility Hawkins offers up the ground. But the reality is they cannot select all three of the aforementioned players in the same team as it simply makes them too top heavy (See the Carlton loss earlier this year for an example).
Defensively I could see Scarlett taking Hall in a cracking match up, Lonergan might get a crack at Jarred Grant but I'd expect either a Mackie or a Milburn to take him with big Tom getting the resting ruckmen Roughead when he pushes forward.
Josh Hunt is an option for Johnson or Higgins if they play in the front half, and with Harry Taylor unavailable they will have to re-shuffle slightly.
At the other end Lake will take Mooney, Williams should get Podsiadly, Morris will take either Stokes or Chapman whilst Harbrow (if he plays) will get Byrnes in all likelihood.
The Cats, like their opponents rotate midfielders heavily through the front half of the ground to add some unpredictability to the attack and they probably do it better then anyone else.
Ling will try to lock down on Boyd I dare say, whilst Picken might try to limit the Cats main grunt man Joel Selwood.
The Cats have a few factors in their favour this week, with the Dogs battling illness, coming back from interstate after a heavy slog and with one less day to prepare, but the Cats themselves had a bruising encounter.
The Bulldogs for mine appear to be in the better form of the two and I think they might just edge out the boys from down the highway in this one.
Geelong are fine tuning for September in terms of their structure and as a result aren't quite at their best. They have nothing to worry about at all and whilst two straight losses isn't ideal, they went through similar at this time last year and we all know what happened then!
The Bulldogs have a settled unit, an in form midfield group and are playing the best they have since the NAB Cup triumph.
As dynamic as the Cats are, the likes of Cooney, Boyd, Higgins, Griffen, Cross, Gilbee and even Moles and Eagleton are just providing so much running depth at the moment and will thoroughly enjoy Etihad Stadium.
It could go either way in a ripping contest, but the Pups for mine.
Bulldogs by 7 points
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Preview - Fremantle vs Sydney - Round 20
Fremantle vs Sydney -Subiaco - Saturday
Fremantle 5th - 12-7-111.44%
Sydney 7th -10-9 - 103.85%
Subiaco Oval will play host to an intriguing clash this Saturday with the stumbling Dockers taking on a Sydney side that bounced back to form last week after a horrendous fortnight.
Fremantle fell to arguably their worst loss of the season last week when the Kangaroos tore them apart at Etihad Stadium.
Aaron Sandilands absence was obviously signficant given it exposed Kepler Bradley to the lions share of the ruckwork against McIntosh and Goldstein, but their lack of defensive running and presence around the stoppages was the most concerning factor of all.
Fremantle's attacking flair has been a feature of their season, but the rise up the ladder can be attributed to an improvement in pressure skills and contested ball.
Both of those areas have fallen away badly for Fremantle which is the tell tale sign of a tired football team.
North Melbourne kicked a number of very easy goals where they had punched through Fremantle in the middle of the ground and had three to four players running into space inside fifty without opposition midfielders pushing back fast enough to stop them.
A lot of players are out of the side injured, and that is an undeniable factor in the slide but Fremantle have hit the wall this season.
They have the capacity to improve and challenge for the flag in coming seasons but they can't let this year turn into a dissapointment.
They will play finals for the third time in their history, but they owe it to themselves to win one.
If they can finish 5th or 6th they will in all likelihood draw Carlton or Sydney at home in the first week, possibly the Hawks, Dees or Kangaroos and it is important that they win that final, move into a second week and get a crack at a semi final at the MCG.
They would lose that semi, but a two final season would do justice to their efforts and set a nice launching pad going forward.
Stephen Hill needs to bounce back after a stinker last week where he was totally eclipsed by Brady Rawlings.
Matthew Pavlich played his worst game for the year, and Rhys Palmer needs to deliver a bit more around the stoppages.
They are a talented side who had a huge win at their last start at Subiaco, and they should enjoy the wider spaces at home against a Sydney side that did get opened up in their two most recent starts on big grounds.
But they still need to lift their workrate if they are to get the job done.
For the Swans last week was a pleasing return to what they do best. They took control of the tempo early, established control at the stoppages and strangled the life out of their opponents.
They benefited from being back on the smaller ground at the SCG but it was an important win given they had experienced the worst fortnight in Paul Roos's reign as coach.
The fact the two losses were at the MCG and ANZ Stadium, two of the competitions larger grounds might hold concerns for Subiaco, given they were sliced up in wide open spaces by two sides that spread well from contests.
Fremantle are a side that does that as well, but Sydney should encounter an under strength midfield lacking in confidence and hence will fair a lot better.
They also have some excellent users of the ball running off half back and these players are super important when playing on Subiaco as guys who can drive the ball long and precisely through the lines can be so damaging.
Malceski, Shaw and Kennelly do it so well and Fremantle will need to put some homework into them if they are to win.
Without Mayne and Ballantyne in attack, Sydney will be confident of restricting the Dockers forwards.
Grundy will probably get Pavlich, with Richards as the second option.
He will probably get Bradley first up provided Sandilands returns.
Hasleby and Fyfe should get some close attention as well.
Brett Kirk will probably go to Hill who is finding life tough without Barlow attracting a tag whilst Mundy might get taken by Moore or perhaps run head to head with Bolton.
At the other end, Mcpharlin lacks the mobility to go with Goodes and a smokey for mine is Roger Hayden who is a player underated by many in Victoria.
Grover is another option, but he might get emerging youngster Trent Dennis Lane.
Ben Mcglynn might get DeBoer or perhaps Ibbotson for company.
Sydney this year have been more inconsistent then normal, and when sides have created space they have lacked the leg speed and class to beat them, but Fremantle just aren't getting enough quality ball out of the middle and some youngsters are carrying more burden then they have for much of the season and as a result they have slipped back to the pack.
Home ground advantage will be a factor, but with O'Keefe, Goodes, Bolton and Kirk back in form, Sydney have too many big bodies playing well and will wear Fremantle down at the stoppages and produce a win that should seal their place in September one last time under Paul Roos.
Sydney by 14 points
Fremantle 5th - 12-7-111.44%
Sydney 7th -10-9 - 103.85%
Subiaco Oval will play host to an intriguing clash this Saturday with the stumbling Dockers taking on a Sydney side that bounced back to form last week after a horrendous fortnight.
Fremantle fell to arguably their worst loss of the season last week when the Kangaroos tore them apart at Etihad Stadium.
Aaron Sandilands absence was obviously signficant given it exposed Kepler Bradley to the lions share of the ruckwork against McIntosh and Goldstein, but their lack of defensive running and presence around the stoppages was the most concerning factor of all.
Fremantle's attacking flair has been a feature of their season, but the rise up the ladder can be attributed to an improvement in pressure skills and contested ball.
Both of those areas have fallen away badly for Fremantle which is the tell tale sign of a tired football team.
North Melbourne kicked a number of very easy goals where they had punched through Fremantle in the middle of the ground and had three to four players running into space inside fifty without opposition midfielders pushing back fast enough to stop them.
A lot of players are out of the side injured, and that is an undeniable factor in the slide but Fremantle have hit the wall this season.
They have the capacity to improve and challenge for the flag in coming seasons but they can't let this year turn into a dissapointment.
They will play finals for the third time in their history, but they owe it to themselves to win one.
If they can finish 5th or 6th they will in all likelihood draw Carlton or Sydney at home in the first week, possibly the Hawks, Dees or Kangaroos and it is important that they win that final, move into a second week and get a crack at a semi final at the MCG.
They would lose that semi, but a two final season would do justice to their efforts and set a nice launching pad going forward.
Stephen Hill needs to bounce back after a stinker last week where he was totally eclipsed by Brady Rawlings.
Matthew Pavlich played his worst game for the year, and Rhys Palmer needs to deliver a bit more around the stoppages.
They are a talented side who had a huge win at their last start at Subiaco, and they should enjoy the wider spaces at home against a Sydney side that did get opened up in their two most recent starts on big grounds.
But they still need to lift their workrate if they are to get the job done.
For the Swans last week was a pleasing return to what they do best. They took control of the tempo early, established control at the stoppages and strangled the life out of their opponents.
They benefited from being back on the smaller ground at the SCG but it was an important win given they had experienced the worst fortnight in Paul Roos's reign as coach.
The fact the two losses were at the MCG and ANZ Stadium, two of the competitions larger grounds might hold concerns for Subiaco, given they were sliced up in wide open spaces by two sides that spread well from contests.
Fremantle are a side that does that as well, but Sydney should encounter an under strength midfield lacking in confidence and hence will fair a lot better.
They also have some excellent users of the ball running off half back and these players are super important when playing on Subiaco as guys who can drive the ball long and precisely through the lines can be so damaging.
Malceski, Shaw and Kennelly do it so well and Fremantle will need to put some homework into them if they are to win.
Without Mayne and Ballantyne in attack, Sydney will be confident of restricting the Dockers forwards.
Grundy will probably get Pavlich, with Richards as the second option.
He will probably get Bradley first up provided Sandilands returns.
Hasleby and Fyfe should get some close attention as well.
Brett Kirk will probably go to Hill who is finding life tough without Barlow attracting a tag whilst Mundy might get taken by Moore or perhaps run head to head with Bolton.
At the other end, Mcpharlin lacks the mobility to go with Goodes and a smokey for mine is Roger Hayden who is a player underated by many in Victoria.
Grover is another option, but he might get emerging youngster Trent Dennis Lane.
Ben Mcglynn might get DeBoer or perhaps Ibbotson for company.
Sydney this year have been more inconsistent then normal, and when sides have created space they have lacked the leg speed and class to beat them, but Fremantle just aren't getting enough quality ball out of the middle and some youngsters are carrying more burden then they have for much of the season and as a result they have slipped back to the pack.
Home ground advantage will be a factor, but with O'Keefe, Goodes, Bolton and Kirk back in form, Sydney have too many big bodies playing well and will wear Fremantle down at the stoppages and produce a win that should seal their place in September one last time under Paul Roos.
Sydney by 14 points
Preview - Carlton vs Richmond Round 20
Carlton vs Richmond - MCG - Saturday Afternoon
Carlton 6th - 10-9 - 106.99%
Richmond 15th - 6-13 - 73.71%
As we near September the rejuvenated Blues tackle the improving Tigers in an other important clash in terms of shaping September.
Carlton face the Cats and also Freo at Subiaco in the last fortnight, so with pressure coming from Syndey, Hawthorn, Melbourne and the Kangaroos, the Blues must win this clash to fend those sides off before a difficult run home.
Not to say Richmond won't provide difficulty, they have been a huge improver this year and are not easy beats by any means, but Carlton would be expecting to win this and simply must if they are to play finals.
Last week was an excellent response by the Blues and Brett Ratten should be commended for putting the acid on his players, and then making smart decisions at the selection table.
The thing Ratten did was strip it back to basics, and get blokes in who are prepared to put their body on the line.
Hadley, Grigg and Robinson are all limited footballers, with futures that are uncertain. But one thing they do unconditionally is hit the ball hard, and compete.
They set the scene for the Blues and with Judd, Murphy and Gibbs keen to atone the response was pleasing for Carlton who opened the game up as a result, found more time with the footy, and were able to bring their smaller forward line back into the game.
They face interesting selection challenges this week with Brad Fisher and Andrew Walker beating down the door.
Both were dropped last week and Fisher responded with 10 goals, whilst Walker collected 47 touches in the Bullants thumping win over Frankston.
Yes the dolphins are terrible, but that is the perfect way to respond to being axed.
Walker is clearly in their best 22 when fit, and should come back, and I feel their is a place for Fisher long term as well.
He has his limitations but most sides function better with that hit up high half forward player who can link between midfield and deep inside fifty.
Henderson needs to play closer to goal, but Fisher can fill that important hit up role in my oppinion.
This week though, it might be hard for him to push in given the side dominated and kicked 23 goals.
Ratten I feel will stick to the boys who turned the table with the possible exception of Walker slotting back into defence and provide another running option to help counter the Tigers pace.
For Richmond last week was a solid showing that lacked the polish of some of their earlier performances, and ultimately that cost them against the slick and in form Dees.
Melbourne scored ten goals directly from Richmond turnovers last week, whilst conversely Richmond were only able to nab majors from four of Melbourne's direct errors.
Their ball use has improved a lot this season but last week, whilst they were competing well at stoppages and spreading well from the contest, they were very sloppy by foot which would have dissapointed Damien Hardwick.
This week they face the old foe Carlton in a chance to shape the eight and dent the chances severely of their much hated rival.
If they continue to win as much ball as they have over the past couple of months they will make life very difficult for Carlton and could most definitely win the game.
58 Inside fifties last week netted just eleven goals, and with Jack Riewoldt well held, they struggled to find other consistent avenues to goal, with midfielders and ruckmen Angus Graham doing most of the damage.
I think Ben Nason needs another spell, he has struggled for impact in the last month and Andrew Collins is a proven goal kicker who can provide that X Factor inside fifty, bob up and kick three and perhaps win them the game.
Thursfield and McGuane are being experimented with up forward but I reckon they are better served having a crack with young Jayden Post, who has looked ok at times, or perhaps even Vickery.
Ben Cousin's past five to six weeks will go a long way to securing him a contract for next season and I for one firmly hope he gets one.
Carlton will no doubt put some work into Brett Deledio and I could see Carazzo getting a forward line tagging role on the Tigers star.
Jake King could return to defence to get one of Garlett or Betts with Edwards or Webberly getting the other.
Jarred Waite will need close checking from the Tigers and perhaps Thursfield or Moore might get the job, but Hardwick might throw the task at young emerging defender David Astbury.
At the other end, Jamison or Bower will get the big job on Jack Riewoldt who still leads the coleman despite kicking just one last week on James Frawley.
Both these sides have forward lines that can struggle when one or two blokes are contained, and the key is who can deliver the cleanest ball inside fifty and capitalise on their chances.
The Blues broke through Essendon's meek chain last week and had a lot of space to deliver well going forward.
The Tigers have been a pretty good pressure side since Round 8 ranking third for tackles and contested ball and if they bring this to the table they can win it.
Carlton though should just have a bit too much class, and whilst the Tigers will be in this game most of the afternoon, with a spot in the eight on the line, and a midfield that has found some form Carlton will win their 11th game of the season and take a major step towards booking a date with September.
Carlton by 16 points
Carlton 6th - 10-9 - 106.99%
Richmond 15th - 6-13 - 73.71%
As we near September the rejuvenated Blues tackle the improving Tigers in an other important clash in terms of shaping September.
Carlton face the Cats and also Freo at Subiaco in the last fortnight, so with pressure coming from Syndey, Hawthorn, Melbourne and the Kangaroos, the Blues must win this clash to fend those sides off before a difficult run home.
Not to say Richmond won't provide difficulty, they have been a huge improver this year and are not easy beats by any means, but Carlton would be expecting to win this and simply must if they are to play finals.
Last week was an excellent response by the Blues and Brett Ratten should be commended for putting the acid on his players, and then making smart decisions at the selection table.
The thing Ratten did was strip it back to basics, and get blokes in who are prepared to put their body on the line.
Hadley, Grigg and Robinson are all limited footballers, with futures that are uncertain. But one thing they do unconditionally is hit the ball hard, and compete.
They set the scene for the Blues and with Judd, Murphy and Gibbs keen to atone the response was pleasing for Carlton who opened the game up as a result, found more time with the footy, and were able to bring their smaller forward line back into the game.
They face interesting selection challenges this week with Brad Fisher and Andrew Walker beating down the door.
Both were dropped last week and Fisher responded with 10 goals, whilst Walker collected 47 touches in the Bullants thumping win over Frankston.
Yes the dolphins are terrible, but that is the perfect way to respond to being axed.
Walker is clearly in their best 22 when fit, and should come back, and I feel their is a place for Fisher long term as well.
He has his limitations but most sides function better with that hit up high half forward player who can link between midfield and deep inside fifty.
Henderson needs to play closer to goal, but Fisher can fill that important hit up role in my oppinion.
This week though, it might be hard for him to push in given the side dominated and kicked 23 goals.
Ratten I feel will stick to the boys who turned the table with the possible exception of Walker slotting back into defence and provide another running option to help counter the Tigers pace.
For Richmond last week was a solid showing that lacked the polish of some of their earlier performances, and ultimately that cost them against the slick and in form Dees.
Melbourne scored ten goals directly from Richmond turnovers last week, whilst conversely Richmond were only able to nab majors from four of Melbourne's direct errors.
Their ball use has improved a lot this season but last week, whilst they were competing well at stoppages and spreading well from the contest, they were very sloppy by foot which would have dissapointed Damien Hardwick.
This week they face the old foe Carlton in a chance to shape the eight and dent the chances severely of their much hated rival.
If they continue to win as much ball as they have over the past couple of months they will make life very difficult for Carlton and could most definitely win the game.
58 Inside fifties last week netted just eleven goals, and with Jack Riewoldt well held, they struggled to find other consistent avenues to goal, with midfielders and ruckmen Angus Graham doing most of the damage.
I think Ben Nason needs another spell, he has struggled for impact in the last month and Andrew Collins is a proven goal kicker who can provide that X Factor inside fifty, bob up and kick three and perhaps win them the game.
Thursfield and McGuane are being experimented with up forward but I reckon they are better served having a crack with young Jayden Post, who has looked ok at times, or perhaps even Vickery.
Ben Cousin's past five to six weeks will go a long way to securing him a contract for next season and I for one firmly hope he gets one.
Carlton will no doubt put some work into Brett Deledio and I could see Carazzo getting a forward line tagging role on the Tigers star.
Jake King could return to defence to get one of Garlett or Betts with Edwards or Webberly getting the other.
Jarred Waite will need close checking from the Tigers and perhaps Thursfield or Moore might get the job, but Hardwick might throw the task at young emerging defender David Astbury.
At the other end, Jamison or Bower will get the big job on Jack Riewoldt who still leads the coleman despite kicking just one last week on James Frawley.
Both these sides have forward lines that can struggle when one or two blokes are contained, and the key is who can deliver the cleanest ball inside fifty and capitalise on their chances.
The Blues broke through Essendon's meek chain last week and had a lot of space to deliver well going forward.
The Tigers have been a pretty good pressure side since Round 8 ranking third for tackles and contested ball and if they bring this to the table they can win it.
Carlton though should just have a bit too much class, and whilst the Tigers will be in this game most of the afternoon, with a spot in the eight on the line, and a midfield that has found some form Carlton will win their 11th game of the season and take a major step towards booking a date with September.
Carlton by 16 points
Monday, August 9, 2010
Preview - Essendon vs Collingwood - Round 20
Essendon vs Collingwood - MCG - Friday Night
Essendon 12th -7-12 - 84.40%
Collingwood 1st - 15-3-1 - 141.04%
The rampaging Magpies are confronted with the chance to once again demolish an arch rival this friday night. It would also see them continue their amazing march towards a september campaign that promises plenty for the Black and White army.
Last week they took down the champions Geelong in an ominous display for the competition. It came three weeks after a demolition of St.Kilda and the margin in this game should have been far greater then the 22 points it was.
58 more contested posessions, 24 more inside fifties and 12 more scoring shots tell the tale of Collingwood's domination.
The Cats sheer brilliance kept them alive in this match at times, but Collingwood had their measure all evening and are now justifiable flag favourites for 2010.
Of particular note was the spread of goal kicking again for the Magpies. 10 players kicked majors in another example of the enormous depth of talent at Mick Malthouse's disposal.
Wellingham, Thomas, Jolly, Ball, Beams, Sidebottom, Dawes, Toovey, Leigh Brown, Didak and Reid are players that have either improved on last year, or come into the side and had an impact to make them better in 2010.
No other finalist boasts that spread of improvement accross the board and it is for that reason that Collingwood are undeniably the team to beat this year.
You still have to get it done though, and the Pies have a few demons in their past they will be well aware of, but I feel this is the best chance they have had in my time watching footy.
Geelong were the best team in the competition in 2008, and St.Kilda were in 2009, but neither won the flag, so finals can throw up some surprises from time to time.
Collingwood's frontal pressure game is reminiscint of the Saints of last year. They have maintained their own style of play, but have ramped up the pressure skills and zoning this year to fanatical levels.
Geelong's fast aggressive style of play was broken down time and time again by Collingwood's tackling and harassing of the ball carrier.
It hasn't been unique to saturday night though, the Pies have done that relentlessly to every team in the competition and boast at least a six goal win against every team in the eight, except Geelong and they should have beaten them by six goals plus too.
For the Bombers last week was a return to the horrible form of rounds 11-16 with a shellacking at the hands of old foe Carlton.
The progress made in the previous fortnight was undone in a poor display under the Friday Night lights.
Whilst those lights did funny things to goal umpire's minds, they also must have affected the Bombers who applied next to no pressure to a Carlton side that was under intense scrutiny all week.
The Blues were always going to be up and about after the scathing criticism that followed their loss to the Pies and Essendon no doubt expected that. However their response made life far too easy for Carlton to establish control around the stoppages through Judd, Murphy, Grigg, Hadley, Gibbs and Carazzo.
Down back, Robinson did an unlikely job on Fletcher and McVeigh, Hocking etc had their hands full with Carlton's swarm of small forwards.
However their job was made impossible by the lack of midfield accountability. Carlton were allowed far too much easy ball inside fifty and if Collingwood have that same licence, this game will be a monumental blow out.
Up forward, Hardingham's star continues to rise. He should have kicked six last week given his chances, but he had a case of the yips and netted 2.5 for the night.
He has a fantastic leap and will be an interesting match up decision for the Pies.
Monfries, Neagle and the resting ruckmen carry the usual burden of scoring, and the ability of Zaharakis (who has had a very underrated season), Winderlich and Stanton to push forward and hurt the Pies will determine how competitive the Dons are.
As will their ability to work just as hard the other way, and restrict the space offered to Wellingham, Swan, Pendlebury and in particular Didak.
McVeigh will most likely get first dibs on the star number four, whilst Hurley will take Cloke and Hooker should get Brown when forward, or perhaps McAffer.
Dustin Fletcher will probably take Dawes and try to hurt him on the rebound.
At the other end, Presti will make life tough for the young Neagle and Monfries will get Shaw or Toovey for company.
Everywhere you look their are match ups of concern for Essendon but they are an enigma the Bombers in that they can swing between dynamic and rubbish on any given week. The gap between their best and worst is arguably the greatest in the competition.
On that note they deserve the cautious respect of the Pies who wouldn't want a let down after last week's huge win.
They won't get a let down though, and whilst the Bombers have the capacity to make this a contest for a while, it won't last long enough to avoid going the way of most sides in clashes with Collingwood in recent weeks, and feel the pain of a ten goal loss.
Collingwood by 49 points
Essendon 12th -7-12 - 84.40%
Collingwood 1st - 15-3-1 - 141.04%
The rampaging Magpies are confronted with the chance to once again demolish an arch rival this friday night. It would also see them continue their amazing march towards a september campaign that promises plenty for the Black and White army.
Last week they took down the champions Geelong in an ominous display for the competition. It came three weeks after a demolition of St.Kilda and the margin in this game should have been far greater then the 22 points it was.
58 more contested posessions, 24 more inside fifties and 12 more scoring shots tell the tale of Collingwood's domination.
The Cats sheer brilliance kept them alive in this match at times, but Collingwood had their measure all evening and are now justifiable flag favourites for 2010.
Of particular note was the spread of goal kicking again for the Magpies. 10 players kicked majors in another example of the enormous depth of talent at Mick Malthouse's disposal.
Wellingham, Thomas, Jolly, Ball, Beams, Sidebottom, Dawes, Toovey, Leigh Brown, Didak and Reid are players that have either improved on last year, or come into the side and had an impact to make them better in 2010.
No other finalist boasts that spread of improvement accross the board and it is for that reason that Collingwood are undeniably the team to beat this year.
You still have to get it done though, and the Pies have a few demons in their past they will be well aware of, but I feel this is the best chance they have had in my time watching footy.
Geelong were the best team in the competition in 2008, and St.Kilda were in 2009, but neither won the flag, so finals can throw up some surprises from time to time.
Collingwood's frontal pressure game is reminiscint of the Saints of last year. They have maintained their own style of play, but have ramped up the pressure skills and zoning this year to fanatical levels.
Geelong's fast aggressive style of play was broken down time and time again by Collingwood's tackling and harassing of the ball carrier.
It hasn't been unique to saturday night though, the Pies have done that relentlessly to every team in the competition and boast at least a six goal win against every team in the eight, except Geelong and they should have beaten them by six goals plus too.
For the Bombers last week was a return to the horrible form of rounds 11-16 with a shellacking at the hands of old foe Carlton.
The progress made in the previous fortnight was undone in a poor display under the Friday Night lights.
Whilst those lights did funny things to goal umpire's minds, they also must have affected the Bombers who applied next to no pressure to a Carlton side that was under intense scrutiny all week.
The Blues were always going to be up and about after the scathing criticism that followed their loss to the Pies and Essendon no doubt expected that. However their response made life far too easy for Carlton to establish control around the stoppages through Judd, Murphy, Grigg, Hadley, Gibbs and Carazzo.
Down back, Robinson did an unlikely job on Fletcher and McVeigh, Hocking etc had their hands full with Carlton's swarm of small forwards.
However their job was made impossible by the lack of midfield accountability. Carlton were allowed far too much easy ball inside fifty and if Collingwood have that same licence, this game will be a monumental blow out.
Up forward, Hardingham's star continues to rise. He should have kicked six last week given his chances, but he had a case of the yips and netted 2.5 for the night.
He has a fantastic leap and will be an interesting match up decision for the Pies.
Monfries, Neagle and the resting ruckmen carry the usual burden of scoring, and the ability of Zaharakis (who has had a very underrated season), Winderlich and Stanton to push forward and hurt the Pies will determine how competitive the Dons are.
As will their ability to work just as hard the other way, and restrict the space offered to Wellingham, Swan, Pendlebury and in particular Didak.
McVeigh will most likely get first dibs on the star number four, whilst Hurley will take Cloke and Hooker should get Brown when forward, or perhaps McAffer.
Dustin Fletcher will probably take Dawes and try to hurt him on the rebound.
At the other end, Presti will make life tough for the young Neagle and Monfries will get Shaw or Toovey for company.
Everywhere you look their are match ups of concern for Essendon but they are an enigma the Bombers in that they can swing between dynamic and rubbish on any given week. The gap between their best and worst is arguably the greatest in the competition.
On that note they deserve the cautious respect of the Pies who wouldn't want a let down after last week's huge win.
They won't get a let down though, and whilst the Bombers have the capacity to make this a contest for a while, it won't last long enough to avoid going the way of most sides in clashes with Collingwood in recent weeks, and feel the pain of a ten goal loss.
Collingwood by 49 points
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