North Melbourne vs St.Kilda - Etihad Stadium - Sunday
North Melbourne -9th - 9-10 - 86.71%
St.Kilda - 3rd - 13-5-1 - 121.84%
The Kangaroos enter Round 20 with their destiny in their own hands as they search for an upset victory that could pave the way for a finals berth.
With all the hype around Melbourne, and the headlines captured by Hawthorn and Carlton in recent weeks, the Kangaroos have quietly snuck up to 9th and could potentially be in the eight come sunday night if they win and the hawks lose.
Last week was one of their most complete performances of the season with a crushing victory over an admittedly dissapointing Fremantle.
They dominated the stoppages, smashed Freo in space with nearly 100 more uncontested posessions and put through 19 goals in a polished and slick performance.
Hamish McIntosh and Todd Goldstein are probably the best ruck combination in the game at present and they fully exploited the absence of Aaron Sandilands from the Freo line up and had 39 hit outs and 42 posessions between them.
St.Kilda will provide a bit more resistance at the stoppages but will be missing main man Michael Gardiner in the ruck so it is an area the Kangaroos can focus on.
They have had real problems against top sides this year North Melbourne, with a 71 point loss to the Bulldogs just a fortnight ago the most recent in a spate of beltings against the top four to six teams in the competition.
Brent Harvey is in some of the best form of his career at present, regularly racking up big numbers and pushing forward to hit the scoreboard each week, and whilst he is the old (with all due respect), it is the young that must be pleasing Roos fans.
Swallow, Greenwood, Garlett, Bastinac and Cunnington have all had excellent years and you can throw in Liam Anthony who has missed much of the season with a shoulder injury.
Goldstein is only young as well so when people talk of emerging sides in the competition and mention Melbourne and Richmond, then surely the Kangaroos must be right up there as well.
When they play their best footy, it's when they are taking the game on and using their pace. They have played on 51% of the time from a mark in the past seven weeks and whilst it can occasionally bring them unstuck against top sides who pressure them, they simply have to persist with it as it suits the group and as they grow with experience, they will gain the necessary composure to eliminate errors.
One area North Melbourne have struggled in is clearances. They had just 21 last week, despite the big win which was the lowest of the round by any side. They have also had 29 less centre clearances then their opponents this season, ranked last.
They can't afford to relinquish control in this area to the Saints who destroyed them in Round 2.
For the Saints, last week was a pleasing return to form even if it came against a deplorable Port Adelaide side.
The pleasing thing for the Saints was they had 13 goalkickers, nearly 500 disposals, got plenty of run out of Gilbert and Fisher and also restricted Port Adelaide's number of forward fity entries.
It was a return to "saints footy" that would have put a smile on Ross Lyon's face.
They were smart when going forward, and used plenty of options rather then simply going long to Riewoldt at all times which has got them into trouble.
They won seven in a row without the big centre half forward, and found many avenues to goal and if they are too win the flag, they need to keep bringing these options into the game as versatility is required against the best defences.
They will face more resistance then they did last week, that's for sure, but it was a step in the right direction with September close.
North Melbourne will keep you honest at all times, and it presents another good challenge for St.Kilda in the lead up to finals.
With the faltering form of Fremantle, they should be safe in the top four, but need to hit september in good form.
St.Kilda has won it's inside fifty count by at least 15 against the Roos in their last 5 meetings, and over the past month have recorded a disposal efficicency of 78% which is the best in the competition, surprising given they have won just once in that time.
Nick Riewoldt played his best game too date since his return to the side and he has an excellent record against North Melbourne. Expect Grima to get him, Thompson to play on Milne like he did last time, and Pratt or Firito to get Koschitzke.
Adam Schneider is in probably career best form at present, so will need close checking.
At the other end Lachie Hansen might draw Gwilt or Fisher, with Edwards likely to get Blake and Warren to get whoever is left over from the Hansen match up, either Gwilt or Fisher.
Jones will re acquiant himself with Brent Harvey who had just five touches last time these sides met.
Greenwood will most likely tag Dal Santo, whilst Brady Rawlings might get Montagna.
The Kangaroos have improved a lot since Round 2, so they won't meet the same fate they did that night, and will be desperate on Sunday given they are essentially playing for their season.
If they lose this game, they will need other results to fall their way if they are to play finals this year which is not an ideal situation.
Their midfield is classy but young and they still have a few blokes out of the side who could have provided a bit more depth and experience.
St.Kilda will take plenty out of what they did last week and will continue to build for september with a win this weekend.
Defensively the Roos are developing but will need to restrict St.Kilda around the stoppages to avoid the supply coming down, because if the saints go down their often enough they have enough class to punch through.
Even with a few blokes out down back I think the Saints defence will be able to deny North Melbourne's forwards enough opportunities to kick a winning score.
Expect this to be competitive for a lot of the day, but the Saints are a bit too mature, experienced and classy at this stage for the emerging Roos.
St.Kilda by 27 points
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