Western Bulldogs vs Geelong - Etihad Stadium - Saturday Night
Western Bulldogs -4th - 13-6 - 140.26%
Geelong -2nd - 14-5 - 142.07%
Etihad Stadium will play host to a crucial clash between two top four sides on Saturday night in a match of great significance in shaping the first week of the finals.
Much intrigue surrounds the game as well with several key Bulldogs under a cloud due to a flu virus that has swept through the Kennell.
Higgins, Cooney, Hudson and Murphy are amongst a number of names racing against time to recover for the clash with the reigning champs this week.
Despite this recent unwanted battle, the Bulldogs are flying on field at present and are second only to Collingwood as the form side of the competition.
Their run and spread from the contest, slick movement and gut running to space are all where they should be and they are firmly in the mix to challenge for a flag if they can continue in this vein.
One concern with the Bulldogs has been their ability to claim a really big scalp and beat one of the competitions top sides.
In the past two seasons, St.Kilda, Collingwood, Geelong and the Bulldogs have occupied the top four and it's interesting to assess the record of each side against the rest of that group.
St.Kilda have a 9-2 record, Geelong are 7-4, Collingwood are 5-8 and the Bulldogs are a dissapointing 2-10 which demonstrates they have come up short.
They haven't been far away in a lot of those games but it is very important that they take the scalp of a Geelong before the finals to inject enormous confidence into the group.
Their spread of goalkickers in recent times has been really pleasing also. Until six weeks ago, the Bulldogs were down 70 goals on the same time last year from their six main 2009 forwards Hahn, Johnson, Akermanis, Higgins, Giansiracusa and Murphy.
They have dragged that back to 42 now and with Barry Hall in fine form, the wheel has certainly turned, and the potency is back in full force.
Over the last seven weeks the Bulldogs have averaged 109 points a game which ranks second in the AFL and it's been coming at the excellent accuracy of 64%.
They have also scored 264 points from stoppages this year which shows the attacking nature of their midfield group.
The key, like it is most weeks when it comes to beating these two sides or any for that matter is the pressure on the ball carrier.
Geelong play a high posession, fast, aggressive style of footy and the Bulldogs are probably the best touch footy side in the comp.
They are the most skillful team in it and will hurt you more then any other team in space.
Geelong conceeded 86 points from turnovers last week, mostly due to Collingwood's pressure and the Bulldogs need to replicate that.
Conversely the Cats sit second for tackles this year and the Bulldogs are also susceptible if you crowd up their space and force them into using the ball long as often as possible.
Geelong's defence eat the long ball for breakfast so the Dogs need to gut run into space and be smart and sharp with their build up.
For the Cats last week was a slap in the face but not something they should necessarily be panicking about.
The Pies got hold of them in a big way and it was only due to sheer brilliance from Geelong that they were in the game, but the reality is they were comprehensively outplayed.
Their is no doubt the Cats will need to be at their best to topple the Magpies later in the year, but they had a few blokes short of a gallop and it doesn't necessarily hurt to get a wake up call at this stage of the season.
One thing they do need to sort out is what they do with their big men.
Mooney and Ottens will play, but the issue sits around Hawkins, Blake and Podsiadly.
They have to determine whether they go with Ottens and Blake in the ruck, and play Hawkins forward, or drop Blake, run Hawkins in the ruck and select J-Pod up forward.
I tend to support the latter theory, despite Podsiadly's struggles away from the cattery due to the mobility Hawkins offers up the ground. But the reality is they cannot select all three of the aforementioned players in the same team as it simply makes them too top heavy (See the Carlton loss earlier this year for an example).
Defensively I could see Scarlett taking Hall in a cracking match up, Lonergan might get a crack at Jarred Grant but I'd expect either a Mackie or a Milburn to take him with big Tom getting the resting ruckmen Roughead when he pushes forward.
Josh Hunt is an option for Johnson or Higgins if they play in the front half, and with Harry Taylor unavailable they will have to re-shuffle slightly.
At the other end Lake will take Mooney, Williams should get Podsiadly, Morris will take either Stokes or Chapman whilst Harbrow (if he plays) will get Byrnes in all likelihood.
The Cats, like their opponents rotate midfielders heavily through the front half of the ground to add some unpredictability to the attack and they probably do it better then anyone else.
Ling will try to lock down on Boyd I dare say, whilst Picken might try to limit the Cats main grunt man Joel Selwood.
The Cats have a few factors in their favour this week, with the Dogs battling illness, coming back from interstate after a heavy slog and with one less day to prepare, but the Cats themselves had a bruising encounter.
The Bulldogs for mine appear to be in the better form of the two and I think they might just edge out the boys from down the highway in this one.
Geelong are fine tuning for September in terms of their structure and as a result aren't quite at their best. They have nothing to worry about at all and whilst two straight losses isn't ideal, they went through similar at this time last year and we all know what happened then!
The Bulldogs have a settled unit, an in form midfield group and are playing the best they have since the NAB Cup triumph.
As dynamic as the Cats are, the likes of Cooney, Boyd, Higgins, Griffen, Cross, Gilbee and even Moles and Eagleton are just providing so much running depth at the moment and will thoroughly enjoy Etihad Stadium.
It could go either way in a ripping contest, but the Pups for mine.
Bulldogs by 7 points
No comments:
Post a Comment