Brisbane vs Adelaide at the Gabba - Sunday
Brisbane - 14th - 6-13- 80.59%
Adelaide - 11th - 7-12 - 91.74%
Brisbane and Adelaide will compete for nothing more then bragging rights this Sunday in what still promises to be a fascinating game.
For the Adelaide Crows, a long and arduous season is finally over with last week's loss confirming they will not play finals in 2010.
The recovery has been a brave one, and they were stiff on the weekend, but the reality is they left themselves too much to do and like the Hawks you can sense a bit of fatigue.
Last week was a game they would have won a month ago, but they just didn't have the run in the legs or sharpness to break through against a solid Bulldogs side who was under duress.
A few times just one last link in the chain would break down, and they would turn the ball over with one too many handballs.
They perhaps didn't play the conditions all that smartly either, particularly in the second half when they had the better of the contest in general play, but pushed a couple of numbers back when they should have rolled the dice.
The Dogs were ripe for the picking, but they need to be commended for keeping the Crows out.
Chris Knights returned and was solid, the Porpoise and Walker were dangerous as always whilst Tippett found the conditions tough.
These guys provide an unpredictable mix that could stretch the Lions provided they get enough clean ball down there.
In saying that though, the Crows have scored a goal from just 21% of inside fifties, but that's largely due to innacuracy. In the past three weeks the Crows have kicked 9.15, 11.14 and 7.11 which means they are going at around 43% over that period which is unnaceptable.
The Crows are generally good travellers but have won just one of their past eight games interstate, and have failed to top the ton in all of them.
They have improved in clearance work though, but they are the most tackled midfield group in the competition which I think is brought about by a bit of hesitation when going forward. Often they try to run the ball down the ground by hand, ala Geelong rather then backing their forwards one out.
They have a solid forward line, they just confuse themselves at times with their own build ups.
For the Lions last week was a gutsy win with the big skipper on one leg. It may have been a touch fortunate but one they deserved all the same.
The second quarter was some of their finest footy for a long while and whilst they were only playing the Eagles it is something they can build on.
Jonathan Brown's selection will probably decide this result given the lack of scoring versatility beyond the big man.
With Fevola out, Cornelius has a chance to step up, but he is very raw. Banfield, Brennan and the midfield group shoulder a fair bit of scoring responsibility to support Brown, and if the captain doesn't play, I don't think the Lions can produce the score.
If he does though, they probably win as not only will he snag four or five, but he brings other players into the contest.
In the past nine weeks, the Lions are the lowest scoring team in the competition, averaging just 67 points a game.
They are also averaging a score from just 46% of forward entries and most of that is attributed to sloppy ball use.
The Lions disposal efficiency has been poor all year, but the Crows aren't the best pressure side in the comp through the middle so the Lions should enjoy a bit more freedom.
I think Rutten will get Brown if he plays, and Cornelius will probably have Bock for company.
Banfield will have to be tight on Johncock to restrict his attack off half back.
Merrett will get Tippett who has been down on form, Patfull should get Walker, whilst Mcgrath will try to do a number on the porpoise like he did on Mark LeCras last week.
If form and method is anything to go by this will be a tight low scoring affair.
Black, Power, Rischitelli and Brennan in the middle will face the likes of Mackay, Vince, Van Berlo and Thompson and there isn't a lot in that midfield battle, I just think the Lions are a five goal better side at home, and the tired crows have lost their travel legs this season and might not have enough in the tank to topple the desperate home side keen to finish the season with some momentum.
After the year from hell, the Lions will win two in a row and push themselves clear of the bottom two.
.......Provided Brown plays.
Brisbane by 12 points
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