Western Bulldogs vs Sydney - MCG -Saturday Night
Last week: Western Bulldogs lost to Collngwood by 62 points 8.14.62 to 17.22.124
Sydney defeated Carlton by five points 14.15.99 to 13.16.94
The curtain will come down on the career of one of the modern era's finest players regardless of the outcome this Saturday night in what is a fascinating semi-final clash.
The in form Swans venture to Melbourne to face the talented yet stumbling Bulldogs for a place in a preliminary final against the Saints.
Either Brad Johnson or Brett Kirk will bid farewell to the game on Saturday night depending on the result so emotions will no doubt be at a high.
The Brett Kirk departure is something we have known about for a while, whilst Brad Johsnon made the seemingly inevitable decision earlier this week after a year in which it has been apparent his body is failing him.
Johnson has been one of the game's most brilliant and durable players but he is evidence of just how quickly the end can come for a player, and it is a timely reminder to his teammates about how important it is to take every opportunity that is presented to you during your career.
The Bulldogs have one last chance to win a flag for their wonderful skipper and that will no doubt be in the back of every player's mind this week and potentially over the next couple.
I think it was evident in their opponents last week. Sydney were in all sorts of trouble early in the last term against Carlton but simply refused to get beaten and willed themselves over the line.
Admittedly they had some good fortune as well, with the Blues squandering three or four massive chances when they had the game at their mercy but Sydney were still able to turn the tide in the middle and start to win the majority of stoppages around the ground in the closing fifteen minutes.
The Bulldogs need to take note of how Sydney won that game. It was through stoppage control and contested ball, an area the Bulldogs usually excel at, but not right at the moment.
From Rounds 1-19, the Bulldogs were the best contested ball team in the competition, beating their opponents by an average of 12 every game. In the four matches since, they have lost this stat by an average of 21 a game, ranked last.
The Bulldogs are also the game's number one clearance team this season but come up against a Swans side that conceeds less direct clearances then anybody else so the contrasting styles will be evident.
Sydney got hold of the Bulldogs a few weeks ago in a big way, but the Doggies had won the previous four matches between these teams and they'd be wise to check out the earlier meeting this year in Canberra.
An example of that is the previous mentioned contested ball stats. In Round 8, the Bulldogs won this stat by 24, the worst record by the Swans in a game this season. In Round 21, the Swans won it by 28, the best record in a game this season.
The Bulldogs pace and running capacity has often hurt the Swans and they need to go back to doing the things they do well, including contested ball.
All sorts of questions remain such as can they do it with some key players out? Overall do they have enough spark to take them on, and can they break the Sydney stranglehold?
My mind has gone either way on all of these and it promises to be such an intriguing game.
Shaun Higgins will miss the remainder of what has been a frustrating season as he battles a thyroid problem, whilst Adam Cooney remains sidelined for the season.
Dale Morris is believed to be an outside chance to play in the Preliminary Final if the Bulldogs progress which would be good news for the group, and young Andrew Hooper will become the first debutant in a final since Paul Spargo in 1985.
He should provide some pace and flair in the front half of the ground and also an unknown x factor for the swans coaching staff to consider.
For Sydney veteran Daniel Bradshaw and the gutsy Ben McGlynn will return to the side giving them an injection of aggression and experience.
McGlynn has been superb this season and has in many ways been a barometer for them, whilst Bradshaw started the season so well prior to injury but provides them with a real target in attack to help straighten them up.
Keiran Jack, Hannebry, McVeigh, Goodes, Bolton and Kirk all provide clearance strength and then the outside runners off half back Malceski, Shaw and Kennelly provide the class and flair for the Swans to help give them the right mix to be dangerous against any side.
Last week they were in trouble when the Blues moved the ball quickly. Their defence has been solid, but without Bolton and Roberts Thompson can be stretched when the ball is moved long and direct, but they aren't alone on that front.
The Bulldogs have the weaponry to make life difficult for them here as well, but Sydney are close to the best nullifiers in the comp in terms of restricting run, clearances and clean disposal.
On the bigger grounds though it is harder to do, and they have lost all three matches at the MCG this year (although two by less then a goal).
The key for the Bulldogs is to open it up and run, the key for the Swans is to generate stoppages and slow the tempo down, get it on their terms more to the point.
This is a genuine flip of the coin game. Two sides with contrasting styles, with plenty of motivation and the lure of a preliminary final.
History says the Bulldogs, as only one top four side has gone out in straight sets since the revised top four format in the year 2000 (eagles in 07), but like the Eagles that season, the Bulldogs are nursing some injuries and are facing a team in form at the right time.
Pound for pound, the Bulldogs are more skillful, have more firepower and accross the board are better.
But this Swans team is playing as well as they have all year, and are just so disciplined and determined it's hard to pick against them.
But like the Pies last year, and the Bulldogs in recent times they will find another leg and drag themselves over the line this week in a close, tense game of footy.
Another preliminary final awaits the winner, and for some reason, I'm going Doggies just.
Bulldogs by 2 points
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Preview- Geelong vs Fremantle - Second Semi Final
Geelong vs Fremantle - MCG - Friday Night
Last week: Geelong lost to St.Kilda 11.13.79 to 12.11.83 in Qualifying Final
Fremantle defeated Hawthorn 14.10.94 to 8.16.64 in Elimination Final
Geelong enter unfamiliar territory this week as they try to win a third flag in four years the hard way by playing four consecutive finals.
Fremantle on the other hand won a final for just the second time in the club's history with a polished and professional performance against a Hawthorn side that many expected would do some damage this September.
Geelong's place in the semi finals was brought about by a somewhat surprising four point loss to St.Kilda after they had trailed by nearly six goals half way through the third quarter.
The fact they very nearly pinched the game (save for an obvious and clear push in the back) speaks volumes of them as a side as they were staring down the barrell of a belting during that third term.
Selwood was very quiet in the first half, whilst Taylor and Hunt and even Scarlett were taken to the cleaners in the first half.
Gary Ablett was once again well tagged by Clinton Jones, but loomed as a constant danger in the second half and threatened to take the game away.
Paul Chapman recovered from a bruising bump from Lenny Hayes to be close to the Cats best, and kicked a crunch goal from a tight angle in the last quarter as others missed chances around him.
We are hearing that Andrew Mackie and Mark Blake are in the gun selection wise this week, and whilst one of those makes sense, the other doesn't.
Mark Blake or Tom Hawkins were always going to be vulnerable given the likely return of Podsiadly who just structures them up better.
Podsiadly is the most conventional forward of their big men and the question was whether they drop Blake and go with Hawkins as second ruck, or vice versa.
Against Aaron Sandilands, who will beat you in the tap outs regardless the key is mobility, and that's where Hawkins is going to offer much more around the ground.
Andrew Mackie on the other hand would be the wrong move. Yes put him under the grill, fire him up, but don't drop him.
Form aside, this is September, and you aren't winning flags without your best 22 up and about.
Challenge him to find form in the seniors, if you drop him, he's not going to get a kick there is he?
It's a catch 22. You don't want to play blokes out of form, but Geelong would struggle big time to win a flag without Mackie in the team and playing well.
For Fremantle last week was a further vindication of events a few weeks back in Tasmania.
Freshened up, the troops rolled Carlton (albeit just) to secure a home final and then faced a return bout with the side that tore them apart in Launceston back in Round 21 to the tune of 116 points.
The new look Dockers (or perhaps old look Dockers) controlled their Elimination Final from the get go and always appeared to have too much running depth and spread of class for the Hawks who no doubt felt the pinch of losing Rioli, and to a certain extent Ellis very early in the game.
The writing was on the wall though prior to that, and although it was only early, it looked as if Fremantle would have their measure.
David Mundy was best on ground, and whilst this week has brought the signature of the most prized man of all Matthew Pavlich, they are now super eager to secure Mundy's with a few Victorian clubs very much circling, namely the Bombers.
Sandilands has been the big focus all week, the big fella hurt a knee last week and spent most of the match in attack and they will need him fit and firing this week.
For Fremantle to win the game, Sandilands has to totally dominate in the centre bounces and probably be best on ground.
If he can't ruck to his usual extent, it puts pressure on Michael Johnson, and perhaps even Alex Silvagni who would be better served in a defensive post.
Adam Mcphee could potentially tag Ablett with pace being the obvious issue in that match up. Selwood and co in the middle won't be too keen to allow themselves to lower their colours again so the likes of Pavlich and Mundy hold such importance. Mcphee as well.
This is where the problem may sit for Fremantle. Yes they have pace and flair and skill which makes them dangerous, but if push comes to shove I think at this stage they lack the physical maturity to go with Geelong's match hardened finals bodies.
Selwood, Chapman, Ablett, Bartel, Kelly, Corey etc vs Mundy, Pavlich, Fyfe, Morabito, Hill, DeBoer.
Class no doubt, but the experience and clearance presence drops away.
The MCG factor won't be signficant to the result in my opinion as the lack of familiarity will be countered by the excitement factor and I also believe the Docker's style in many ways suits the ground.
Fremantle need to dominate the ruck, and then open the game up, spread from the contest, reduce the number of stoppages and just run like hell.
Geelong are a fast efficient side themselves and will probably win a shoot out anyway, but if the game becomes tight and in close I think Geelong could monster them.
Fremantle deserve undoubted respect for all they have done this year, and they deserve to be in the second week of September.
Whatever happens from here, they are one of the success stories of 2010 and should have a very bright future over the next three to four years.
A first ever MCG final, and a top four spot for most of the year is a huge tick, and they need to take this game on as an exciting opportunity.
If they play with freedom and agression they could make it a contest, but I doubt they can do much more at this stage.
They have not won an away game since Round 13, and Geelong are on the rebound and showed some ominous signs after half time last week.
Defensively Geelong can limit the damage, although the order of the day for Fremantle is running goals, back themselves from long range and attack the sticks rather then trying to pinpoint to leading options.
The problem with that is Fremantle's skill level is not the same as Geelong's and they could get hurt badly if they turn it over.
In attack, the Cats spread of talent has a bit too much class for the undermanned Fremantle defence and overall they boast superior depth in all areas bar perhaps the ruck.
Fremantle need to be brave and bold, but this Cat's machine is not going out in straight sets.
Too much class, too much poise, too much experience and the dream will stay alive for the Cats who will set up the mother of all blockbusters against the Pies next week.
Geelong by 47 points
Last week: Geelong lost to St.Kilda 11.13.79 to 12.11.83 in Qualifying Final
Fremantle defeated Hawthorn 14.10.94 to 8.16.64 in Elimination Final
Geelong enter unfamiliar territory this week as they try to win a third flag in four years the hard way by playing four consecutive finals.
Fremantle on the other hand won a final for just the second time in the club's history with a polished and professional performance against a Hawthorn side that many expected would do some damage this September.
Geelong's place in the semi finals was brought about by a somewhat surprising four point loss to St.Kilda after they had trailed by nearly six goals half way through the third quarter.
The fact they very nearly pinched the game (save for an obvious and clear push in the back) speaks volumes of them as a side as they were staring down the barrell of a belting during that third term.
Selwood was very quiet in the first half, whilst Taylor and Hunt and even Scarlett were taken to the cleaners in the first half.
Gary Ablett was once again well tagged by Clinton Jones, but loomed as a constant danger in the second half and threatened to take the game away.
Paul Chapman recovered from a bruising bump from Lenny Hayes to be close to the Cats best, and kicked a crunch goal from a tight angle in the last quarter as others missed chances around him.
We are hearing that Andrew Mackie and Mark Blake are in the gun selection wise this week, and whilst one of those makes sense, the other doesn't.
Mark Blake or Tom Hawkins were always going to be vulnerable given the likely return of Podsiadly who just structures them up better.
Podsiadly is the most conventional forward of their big men and the question was whether they drop Blake and go with Hawkins as second ruck, or vice versa.
Against Aaron Sandilands, who will beat you in the tap outs regardless the key is mobility, and that's where Hawkins is going to offer much more around the ground.
Andrew Mackie on the other hand would be the wrong move. Yes put him under the grill, fire him up, but don't drop him.
Form aside, this is September, and you aren't winning flags without your best 22 up and about.
Challenge him to find form in the seniors, if you drop him, he's not going to get a kick there is he?
It's a catch 22. You don't want to play blokes out of form, but Geelong would struggle big time to win a flag without Mackie in the team and playing well.
For Fremantle last week was a further vindication of events a few weeks back in Tasmania.
Freshened up, the troops rolled Carlton (albeit just) to secure a home final and then faced a return bout with the side that tore them apart in Launceston back in Round 21 to the tune of 116 points.
The new look Dockers (or perhaps old look Dockers) controlled their Elimination Final from the get go and always appeared to have too much running depth and spread of class for the Hawks who no doubt felt the pinch of losing Rioli, and to a certain extent Ellis very early in the game.
The writing was on the wall though prior to that, and although it was only early, it looked as if Fremantle would have their measure.
David Mundy was best on ground, and whilst this week has brought the signature of the most prized man of all Matthew Pavlich, they are now super eager to secure Mundy's with a few Victorian clubs very much circling, namely the Bombers.
Sandilands has been the big focus all week, the big fella hurt a knee last week and spent most of the match in attack and they will need him fit and firing this week.
For Fremantle to win the game, Sandilands has to totally dominate in the centre bounces and probably be best on ground.
If he can't ruck to his usual extent, it puts pressure on Michael Johnson, and perhaps even Alex Silvagni who would be better served in a defensive post.
Adam Mcphee could potentially tag Ablett with pace being the obvious issue in that match up. Selwood and co in the middle won't be too keen to allow themselves to lower their colours again so the likes of Pavlich and Mundy hold such importance. Mcphee as well.
This is where the problem may sit for Fremantle. Yes they have pace and flair and skill which makes them dangerous, but if push comes to shove I think at this stage they lack the physical maturity to go with Geelong's match hardened finals bodies.
Selwood, Chapman, Ablett, Bartel, Kelly, Corey etc vs Mundy, Pavlich, Fyfe, Morabito, Hill, DeBoer.
Class no doubt, but the experience and clearance presence drops away.
The MCG factor won't be signficant to the result in my opinion as the lack of familiarity will be countered by the excitement factor and I also believe the Docker's style in many ways suits the ground.
Fremantle need to dominate the ruck, and then open the game up, spread from the contest, reduce the number of stoppages and just run like hell.
Geelong are a fast efficient side themselves and will probably win a shoot out anyway, but if the game becomes tight and in close I think Geelong could monster them.
Fremantle deserve undoubted respect for all they have done this year, and they deserve to be in the second week of September.
Whatever happens from here, they are one of the success stories of 2010 and should have a very bright future over the next three to four years.
A first ever MCG final, and a top four spot for most of the year is a huge tick, and they need to take this game on as an exciting opportunity.
If they play with freedom and agression they could make it a contest, but I doubt they can do much more at this stage.
They have not won an away game since Round 13, and Geelong are on the rebound and showed some ominous signs after half time last week.
Defensively Geelong can limit the damage, although the order of the day for Fremantle is running goals, back themselves from long range and attack the sticks rather then trying to pinpoint to leading options.
The problem with that is Fremantle's skill level is not the same as Geelong's and they could get hurt badly if they turn it over.
In attack, the Cats spread of talent has a bit too much class for the undermanned Fremantle defence and overall they boast superior depth in all areas bar perhaps the ruck.
Fremantle need to be brave and bold, but this Cat's machine is not going out in straight sets.
Too much class, too much poise, too much experience and the dream will stay alive for the Cats who will set up the mother of all blockbusters against the Pies next week.
Geelong by 47 points
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