Geelong vs Fremantle - MCG - Friday Night
Last week: Geelong lost to St.Kilda 11.13.79 to 12.11.83 in Qualifying Final
Fremantle defeated Hawthorn 14.10.94 to 8.16.64 in Elimination Final
Geelong enter unfamiliar territory this week as they try to win a third flag in four years the hard way by playing four consecutive finals.
Fremantle on the other hand won a final for just the second time in the club's history with a polished and professional performance against a Hawthorn side that many expected would do some damage this September.
Geelong's place in the semi finals was brought about by a somewhat surprising four point loss to St.Kilda after they had trailed by nearly six goals half way through the third quarter.
The fact they very nearly pinched the game (save for an obvious and clear push in the back) speaks volumes of them as a side as they were staring down the barrell of a belting during that third term.
Selwood was very quiet in the first half, whilst Taylor and Hunt and even Scarlett were taken to the cleaners in the first half.
Gary Ablett was once again well tagged by Clinton Jones, but loomed as a constant danger in the second half and threatened to take the game away.
Paul Chapman recovered from a bruising bump from Lenny Hayes to be close to the Cats best, and kicked a crunch goal from a tight angle in the last quarter as others missed chances around him.
We are hearing that Andrew Mackie and Mark Blake are in the gun selection wise this week, and whilst one of those makes sense, the other doesn't.
Mark Blake or Tom Hawkins were always going to be vulnerable given the likely return of Podsiadly who just structures them up better.
Podsiadly is the most conventional forward of their big men and the question was whether they drop Blake and go with Hawkins as second ruck, or vice versa.
Against Aaron Sandilands, who will beat you in the tap outs regardless the key is mobility, and that's where Hawkins is going to offer much more around the ground.
Andrew Mackie on the other hand would be the wrong move. Yes put him under the grill, fire him up, but don't drop him.
Form aside, this is September, and you aren't winning flags without your best 22 up and about.
Challenge him to find form in the seniors, if you drop him, he's not going to get a kick there is he?
It's a catch 22. You don't want to play blokes out of form, but Geelong would struggle big time to win a flag without Mackie in the team and playing well.
For Fremantle last week was a further vindication of events a few weeks back in Tasmania.
Freshened up, the troops rolled Carlton (albeit just) to secure a home final and then faced a return bout with the side that tore them apart in Launceston back in Round 21 to the tune of 116 points.
The new look Dockers (or perhaps old look Dockers) controlled their Elimination Final from the get go and always appeared to have too much running depth and spread of class for the Hawks who no doubt felt the pinch of losing Rioli, and to a certain extent Ellis very early in the game.
The writing was on the wall though prior to that, and although it was only early, it looked as if Fremantle would have their measure.
David Mundy was best on ground, and whilst this week has brought the signature of the most prized man of all Matthew Pavlich, they are now super eager to secure Mundy's with a few Victorian clubs very much circling, namely the Bombers.
Sandilands has been the big focus all week, the big fella hurt a knee last week and spent most of the match in attack and they will need him fit and firing this week.
For Fremantle to win the game, Sandilands has to totally dominate in the centre bounces and probably be best on ground.
If he can't ruck to his usual extent, it puts pressure on Michael Johnson, and perhaps even Alex Silvagni who would be better served in a defensive post.
Adam Mcphee could potentially tag Ablett with pace being the obvious issue in that match up. Selwood and co in the middle won't be too keen to allow themselves to lower their colours again so the likes of Pavlich and Mundy hold such importance. Mcphee as well.
This is where the problem may sit for Fremantle. Yes they have pace and flair and skill which makes them dangerous, but if push comes to shove I think at this stage they lack the physical maturity to go with Geelong's match hardened finals bodies.
Selwood, Chapman, Ablett, Bartel, Kelly, Corey etc vs Mundy, Pavlich, Fyfe, Morabito, Hill, DeBoer.
Class no doubt, but the experience and clearance presence drops away.
The MCG factor won't be signficant to the result in my opinion as the lack of familiarity will be countered by the excitement factor and I also believe the Docker's style in many ways suits the ground.
Fremantle need to dominate the ruck, and then open the game up, spread from the contest, reduce the number of stoppages and just run like hell.
Geelong are a fast efficient side themselves and will probably win a shoot out anyway, but if the game becomes tight and in close I think Geelong could monster them.
Fremantle deserve undoubted respect for all they have done this year, and they deserve to be in the second week of September.
Whatever happens from here, they are one of the success stories of 2010 and should have a very bright future over the next three to four years.
A first ever MCG final, and a top four spot for most of the year is a huge tick, and they need to take this game on as an exciting opportunity.
If they play with freedom and agression they could make it a contest, but I doubt they can do much more at this stage.
They have not won an away game since Round 13, and Geelong are on the rebound and showed some ominous signs after half time last week.
Defensively Geelong can limit the damage, although the order of the day for Fremantle is running goals, back themselves from long range and attack the sticks rather then trying to pinpoint to leading options.
The problem with that is Fremantle's skill level is not the same as Geelong's and they could get hurt badly if they turn it over.
In attack, the Cats spread of talent has a bit too much class for the undermanned Fremantle defence and overall they boast superior depth in all areas bar perhaps the ruck.
Fremantle need to be brave and bold, but this Cat's machine is not going out in straight sets.
Too much class, too much poise, too much experience and the dream will stay alive for the Cats who will set up the mother of all blockbusters against the Pies next week.
Geelong by 47 points
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