Sydney vs Carlton - ANZ Stadium - Sunday
Sydney 5th - 13-9-108.27%
Carlton 8th - 11-11 - 108.07%
Week one of the finals will conclude on Sunday with the in form Swans taking on a Carlton side entering back to back finals campaigns.
Last year Carlton experienced september heartbreak at the hands of the Brisbane Lions after leading by five goals early in the last quarter before being overrun.
Many clubs have been linked to some pain as motivation and Carlton are one that must surely carry that in the back of their minds.
The Blues are still on a journey, a journey that began as many as eight years ago when they bottomed out and lost draft picks and had to start a slow and painful rebuild.
Last year that climb finally got them back into the eight, and the next step is to win a final and these Blues on their day posess the tools to do so.
They will enjoy the fact this game is at ANZ Stadium as opposed to the SCG, as the smaller cricket ground does not suit their fast run and spread game.
Sydney are the masters at bottling up the space at the SCG and taking control of the stoppages, on the wider expanses of ANZ Stadium it is generally more difficult for Sydney to execute their style effectively and they boast a less then 50% winning record at the ground.
Carlton need to create space over the back of the contest like they did early and late against Fremantle last week.
In the first and last terms they backed their legs, ran hard and kicked long which broke over the back of Fremantle's rolling zone and created a lot of easy goals in space.
Sydney execute a more disciplined defensive press then Fremantle, but they do lack genuine leg speed in some crucial areas.
Basically this is a game that represents two sides with contrasting stryles so it promises to be a fascinating battle.
For Sydney, the last month has been a real triumph for the wonderful partnership between the departing Paul Roos and his troops.
Ever since that inexplicable Melbourne capitulation the Swans have returned to their trademark pressure, intensity and consistent spread of contributions.
Last week was a fantastic workmanlike victory in which they weathered the best Brisbane could throw at them, and then took control and went away impressively after half time.
Keiran Jack's class and poise is superb and he is the next generation of elite Sydney midfielders post the Brett Kirk/Jude Bolton era.
Malceski, McVeigh, Rhys Shaw and co all provided plenty of run, and in the absence of Craig Bolton the likes of Grundy and Richards have slipped into defence and provided a rock solid combination.
The amazing part about Sydney is the ability of players to slip in, find their niche and turn into very good players.
Mike Pyke is the classic example of that, he is one of the competitions most improved players this season and if Mumford plays, they loom as a potentially decisive duo.
Sydney have won 121 more stoppage first posessions this year which is second only to the Bulldogs, and they are the third highest scoring team from this stat this season.
Carlton conversely concede the second most points from stoppage first posessions and have trouble with teams that score from fast breaks, turnovers, rebounds etc as defensively their midfield can struggle.
For what we have said about the bigger ground, statistically their is evidence to suggest it might not help the Blues as much as first thought.
Carlton's disposal efficiency last week was 71%, their worst of the year, and if they repeat that they might get opened up too much the other way, much like what the Dockers did in quarters two and three.
Carlton's effectiveness going forward in the past month has dropped away as well, they average a mark from just 20% of inside fifties ranked 14th in that time, and they must take their chances against the ultra competitive Swans.
In a game of contrasting styles I like the Swans a lot in this one. Carlton deserve respect no doubt for their skill, fast ball movement and dangerous crumbing forwards, but Sydney have the tools to shut them down.
With a host of clearance players in form, dangerous rebounding half backs and one of the games most dynamic players in Adam Goodes I can see the Swans taking this one and progressing to the second week.
It would mean another september date at the MCG for Paul Roos before his swansong. And you just wonder how far his might take things season.
That journey into excitement will start on Sunday.
Sydney by 23 points
No comments:
Post a Comment