Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs - MCG - Saturday Night
Collingwood 1st - 17-4-1 - 141.68%
Western Bulldogs 4th - 14-8 - 125.37%
Collingwood and the Bulldogs will clash on Saturday Night for the opportunity to have a week off and host a preliminary final.
The fortunes of the two sides have been heading in opposite directions in recent weeks, but that doesnt change the fact they have both qualified for the top four on the back of the season as a whole so Collingwood will no doubt be very cautious when assessing the wounded Bulldogs.
Collingwood despite a narrow win and a loss to Hawthorn in the past fortnight will enter September chock full of confidence an in the midst of the reality of what is their best premiership chance since the ill fated Brisbane double in 2002/2003.
Josh Fraser has made way this week as expected bringing back Leigh Brown who has enjoyed a super season for the Magpies but Tyson Goldsack was probably a surprise omission.
The Bulldogs aren't the tallest forward line in the world so that probably explains why, but he would have still provided an option for either Hahn or Grant in defence.
Paul Medhurst sadly is in the same boat as Josh Fraser I suspect, in that neither are likely to play AFL Football for Collingwood again, barring some unforeseen injuries in this finals campaign.
Once again if you were to find an issue for Collingwood in recent weeks it would have to be accuracy.
This time they had seven more shots then Hawthorn and a lost, a week earlier they had eight more shots then Adelaide and got home by three points and there is no doubt this is a concern.
Collingwood overwhelm sides through weight of numbers, and simply generate so many inside fifties and so many scoring chances that they are able to produce a winning score regardless, but in finals when scoring becomes tougher, the contest becomes that little bit fiercer, you wonder how many times they can get away with it.
Collingwood average 12 more contested posessions, 14 more tackles and 12 more inside fifties a game then their opponents this year which ranks number one in all three areas which suggests they overwhelm sides through pressure and the volume of entries to the point where it is nearly impossible to keep them out.
For the Bulldogs, last week was an expected and professional win highlighted by the six goal haul to young emerging forward Jarrod Grant.
Ryan Griffen pulled up lame with a knee injury and despite being named, he remains the big mystery ahead of this match.
He will undergo last minute fitness tests and if he is a late withdrawal, the Bulldogs lose arguably their classiest midfield finisher on top of the absence of Cooney and Morris.
Dale Morris is structurally their most important player as he takes the opposition's best forward each week and in the process releases Lake, Hargrave and co to peel off and play loose at any given time.
Harbrow and Gilbee remain the keys when trying to stop this team, the run they provide off half back and the precision they use by foot makes them the most dangerous team in the competition skill wise when in form.
Expect Sidebottom or Ball to get an offensive job on one of them, but the job will be made easier by the fact Gilbee may need more midfield time due to no Cooney, and one or both may have to play more accountable roles without Morris.
That is part of the roll on problem losing these players poses for Rodney Eade.
Shaun Higgins will come back in and he is very much the x factor in this line up. A classy kid who can play forward and midfield, he just needs a sustained run of fitness to assert himself.
He has not been able to have that at any stage of his career so far.
Collingwood are the competitions best tackling team, and the Bulldogs statistically are the worst averaging just 61 a game.
The Bulldogs are also the poorest side accross the last month at turning inside fifties into scores averaging a score with just 39% of their entries.
Collingwood's pressure on the ball carrier has dismantled the Bulldogs twice at Etihad this year, but strangely enough the Dogs may welcome the more space on offer at the somewhat unfamiliar MCG.
However that won't be enough for mine. The Bulldogs will be brave, and are a worthy and dangerous top four foe that could make like difficult for Collingwood, but these Pies are primed and ready for this clash and should get it done.
With a spread of midfield runners, an in form defensive unit and a potent and lively attack the Pies will march into a Preliminary Final and play the Saints or the Cats.
Collingwood by 27 points
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