Geelong vs St.Kilda - MCG - Friday Night
Geelong 2nd - 17-5 - 147.94%
St.Kilda 3rd - 15-6-1 - 121.62%
For the third year in a row the Cats and the Saints will clash in September, and once more it will be as top four sides and genuine contenders.
Geelong enter this finals campaign as the reigning premiers keen to write their own place in history amongst the games immortals with a third flag in four years.
For St.Kilda it's all about vindication, and finishing the job theycame agonisingly close to achieving last year.
It was of course Geelong that denied them on that cold and wet afternoon in late september and just how much of a motivation that pain will serve remains to me seen.
It will be a factor though at least on the mindset of the players, but the game should not be won or lost on that.
The Cats are the highest scoring team in the competition and boast superstars on every line.
Another seven players nominated for All Australian, another 114 points averaged each week and possibly another Brownlow Medal for Gary Ablett who despite his occasional critics (there are some), he has had statistically in some ways a better year then last.
He has gone forward and kicked 40 plus goals for the season as well as still maintaining an average of over 30 posessions a game.
There isn't a midfielder in the land that has a season cv comparable to that, even Dane Swan who whilst similar in disposals, has kicked 25 less goals.
The Brownlow is probably a race between those two and we know Gary can poll, and you should be able to guarantee he will finish with three votes for last weeks effort.
With Podsiadly still suspended, Geelong can settle on their big man situation with Hawkins in attack with Mooney, and Mark Blake sharing the ruckload with Brad Ottens. Basically their formula circa the last two years.
Ling will tag Dal Santo, whilst Ablett might draw Clinton Jones for company as he has in the last three meetings between these teams.
Last time these sides met, Geelong went goalless in the entire second half, their worst performance in over a decade.
You can slot names like Chapman, Ottens, Kelly, Corey, Hawkins and a couple of others back into the side so they will be much stronger this time and keen to atone from that earlier defeat at the hands of one of their modern rivals.
Geelong's run and spread game started to find its feet in the second half last week and it is fair to say the Cats very much had an eye on this friday night's clash.
The Saints also had an eye on this game and that was clear by the way they chipped the ball around in the closing minutes rather then attacking the game flat out.
Momentum was with the Crows and St.Kilda affectively put the que in the rack and started preparing for the first final.
This can often be an awkard factor when a side essentially has nothing to play for, and that is taking nothing away at all from Adelaide who all day looked the better side.
From the last time these sides met St.Kilda can welcome back Nick Riewoldt and Jason Gram and this will also be the first time Steven Baker has played since that imfamous friday night where he copped a farcical nine week suspension for something seen at least twenty times since accross the subsequent rounds. (Perhaps the inner saint coming out)
St.Kilda's defence remains the cornerstone of it's chances. They conceed just 44 nside fifties a game which ranks number one in the AFL, and also give up a score on just 45% of those occasions which is the second best defensive record in the competition this year.
Contested ball is important as well, St.Kilda won the contested ball count against the Cats earlier this year and it was the first time they had beaten them in that stat for four years.
As a result they were able to control the tempo as St.Kilda statistically are the best team in the AFL by foot.
Zac Dawson may get Mooney with Fisher likely now to play, and possibly take Hawkins. Baker will get Johnson, and Chapman who has imfamously broken Saint hearts in recent times might draw a Dempster for company.
At the other end Harry Taylor will renew hostilities with Nick Riewoldt, Lonergan might get Kozi, with Scarlett rolling off onto a medium and perhaps trying to hurt them on the rebound.
Josh Hunt should get Milne, whilst Mackie or Enright might go to Schneider who killed them earlier this season.
David Armitage is an interesting one. St.Kilda need to make three changes with Baker, Schneider and Milne to return and he would be one player who is probably in strife but his ability to win the contested ball on what is likely to be a wet night could be significant.
This promises to be another cracking contest that should once again go down to the wire.
Weather conditions will be similar to the last two times these sides have met, and expect a similar game.
St.Kilda controlled the tempo in both of those and it's a matter of class vs defense not to take too many niceties away. Geelong's ability to break it open and create scoring bursts vs St.Kilda's ability to control the tempo will be the decisive battle.
With pain as an extra motivation, and the lure of a likely Grand Final berth for the winner, the Saints squeeze them just.
St.Kilda by 6 points
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