Brisbane vs Sydney - Gabba - Saturday Night
Brisbane 13th - 7-14 - 93.19%
Sydney 5th - 12-9 - 106.46%
One of the competitions form sides will head north of the border this weekend in the hope of securing a home final.
The Sydney Swans have been in super form over the past three weeks and will enter September confident of doing some damage if they can maintain their current tempo.
For the Lions the last three weeks have been a lot better, two wins and a tight loss as some system and structure starts to return to the fold.
Jonathan Brown's 200th game last week was the perfect tonic for the group and the gutsy champion produced a vintage performance taking 16 marks accross half forward.
He ended up with 4.6 but the impact he has on his team goes beyond the stat sheet and as he finally succumbs to injury in 2010 you can guarantee it will hurt his team immensely.
Rockliff, Redden, Banfield, Harwood and Leunberger continue to develop nicely for the Lions but it is imperative they don't lose all of Brennan, Rischitelli and Drummond with all suggested as possible players looking for a new home.
It appears almost certain Brennan will go, and Drummond is keen to stay, the Lions just cannot meet his pay demands whilst Rischitelli has had a ripper season and they would be keen to secure his signature.
For the Swans last week was another triumph in the partnership of Paul Roos and Brett Kirk with a gutsy home win over quality opposition.
Together they have symbolised what has been a wonderful era for this proud club and you cannot help but admire the way the Sydney Swans go about things.
With Bradshaw and Bolton a chance to return early in September you wonder which path Roos might go down, given he would be taking a risk to select them with hardly any footy under their belt, yet at the same time he'd be well aware of the importance these blokes hold to their structure.
You must also factor in that O'Keefe and Mcglynn didn't play either and Mumford went down early in the game so it was an excellent victory.
This week though the Swans have few concerns with all the injury and selection issues located up north in the mind of Michael Voss.
Without Brown it's hard to picture Brisbane breaking through the strong defensive zone that Sydney applies often enough to win the game.
Sydney are aslo a wonderful stoppage team and should restrict them enough firstly, and then exploit the sometimes loose Lions runners.
Sydney by 17 points
(Match preview cut short due to my flu battle...apologies )
Friday, August 27, 2010
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Preview - Richmond vs Port Adelaide - Round 22
Richmond vs Port Adelaide - Etihad Stadium - Sunday
Richmond 15th - 6-15 - 71.97%
Port Adelaide 10th - 9-12 - 80.91%
The curtain will come down for one of the modern era's finest players this Sunday with Ben Cousins bowing out on his own terms.
With the release of the documentary this week the 2005 Brownlow Medalist has been the talk of the town and make no mistake he will play this week despite the words coming out of the club.
For his Richmond side it is the chance to put a final full stop on what has been an ultimately positive season in which they have exceeded the expectations of almost everyone.
For Port Adelaide it is the chance to continue their ressurection on season 2010 and produce a fifth win from six starts.
Matthew Primus will coach Port Adelaide next year there is little doubt about that, and so he should given his recent results.
Port Adelaide's season was spiralling out of control at Round 15 but since then with the exception of a horrendous defeat to St.Kilda at Etihad Stadium the Power have been very impressive.
Admittedly all four of their victories have come at Aami Stadium but it's been the hunger and commitment that has really stood out.
Matthew Primus would be eager to win a game on the road though and if they do they could conceivably finish as high as 9th which would be a fair recovery.
Brett Ebert this week successfully underwent LARS surgery on his badly damaged knee but his absence will rob them off some firepower no doubt, but with Jay Schulz eager to perform against his old side, Westhoff and Grey in form they still have the tools to kick a winning score.
In the last six weeks Port Adelaide have averaged just 46 Inside fifties a game which ranks last yet they have won four of those games which suggests a new efficiency in their playing style.
They have also won the inside fifty count just three times from their nine interstate trips this year which further emphasises that trend.
Last week they scored 71 points directly from Melbourne turnovers which was their best differential this season and Richmond can be sloppy by foot so they will be looking to hurt them at all times.
For Richmond, last week was a pleasing performance despite the 21 point loss to St.Kilda and they would have been particularly happy with their ability to hurt the Saints on the counter attack, and the fact they maintained the pressure all day.
Even when St.Kilda opened up a 37 point buffer in the final term the Tigers kept coming and had the last six scoring shots of the game.
They scored ten goals from St.Kilda turnovers and they also recorded their highest disposal efficiency of the season in what was a strangely open game.
Both sides played quite a free flowing style and it suited Richmond's style down to the ground.
This year Richmond rank third for tackles, third for clearances but last for disposal efficiency so if they can sharpen up then the results should start to come.
It is easier said then done though and I'm sure Hardwick is aware of the work required and won't be getting ahead of himself by any means.
Daniel Jackson will miss again with injury but the inclusion of Trent Cotchin was really positive last week with his class around the stoppages so crucial.
He kicked two very nice goals and used the ball sublimely and his assistance at the stoppages for Cousins, Tuck, Martin and co is so important.
If you add a fit Jackson and Foley to that group it's no surprise as to why there are so many wraps on their midfield.
Then there's Ben Cousins. The story about his second chance at football is about far more then sport, it's about potentially saving his life and reaching out for him in his time of need.
A guy that gave the game so much was brought back into the footballing family at his time of need and if you hear from Ben and his father Bryan in that documentary you get an understanding for how significant it was that they gave him that lifeline.
He will forever hold a special love for the Richmond football club and that will be a telling factor on Sunday.
His teammates have a wonderful repour with him and he has taught them plenty over the two years.
Whilst the partnership maybe not have been immensely successful on field in terms of wins and losses, the impression he has left on his some of his teammates will be telling.
Expect a big crowd to show up Sunday to wrap up one of the most controversial yet brilliant football careers.
A few weeks ago I pictured this game panning out like the Hawthorn v Geelong clash in Round 22 of 2006 with a young emerging side smashing a team that had faced much scrutiny all year for under achieving.
I could see Richmond doing that to Port Adelaide, but the Power have experienced a ressurection of their own in the past six weeks and will be keen to finish the year strongly.
However I still think this will be Richmond's day.
With a big crowd in support, some young kids playing with confidence and the incentive to send Ben Cousins off in style I think it will be a fitting end for the number 32.
Send him off in style they will, and win number seven will be forthcoming for Dimma's men.
Richmond by 28 points
Richmond 15th - 6-15 - 71.97%
Port Adelaide 10th - 9-12 - 80.91%
The curtain will come down for one of the modern era's finest players this Sunday with Ben Cousins bowing out on his own terms.
With the release of the documentary this week the 2005 Brownlow Medalist has been the talk of the town and make no mistake he will play this week despite the words coming out of the club.
For his Richmond side it is the chance to put a final full stop on what has been an ultimately positive season in which they have exceeded the expectations of almost everyone.
For Port Adelaide it is the chance to continue their ressurection on season 2010 and produce a fifth win from six starts.
Matthew Primus will coach Port Adelaide next year there is little doubt about that, and so he should given his recent results.
Port Adelaide's season was spiralling out of control at Round 15 but since then with the exception of a horrendous defeat to St.Kilda at Etihad Stadium the Power have been very impressive.
Admittedly all four of their victories have come at Aami Stadium but it's been the hunger and commitment that has really stood out.
Matthew Primus would be eager to win a game on the road though and if they do they could conceivably finish as high as 9th which would be a fair recovery.
Brett Ebert this week successfully underwent LARS surgery on his badly damaged knee but his absence will rob them off some firepower no doubt, but with Jay Schulz eager to perform against his old side, Westhoff and Grey in form they still have the tools to kick a winning score.
In the last six weeks Port Adelaide have averaged just 46 Inside fifties a game which ranks last yet they have won four of those games which suggests a new efficiency in their playing style.
They have also won the inside fifty count just three times from their nine interstate trips this year which further emphasises that trend.
Last week they scored 71 points directly from Melbourne turnovers which was their best differential this season and Richmond can be sloppy by foot so they will be looking to hurt them at all times.
For Richmond, last week was a pleasing performance despite the 21 point loss to St.Kilda and they would have been particularly happy with their ability to hurt the Saints on the counter attack, and the fact they maintained the pressure all day.
Even when St.Kilda opened up a 37 point buffer in the final term the Tigers kept coming and had the last six scoring shots of the game.
They scored ten goals from St.Kilda turnovers and they also recorded their highest disposal efficiency of the season in what was a strangely open game.
Both sides played quite a free flowing style and it suited Richmond's style down to the ground.
This year Richmond rank third for tackles, third for clearances but last for disposal efficiency so if they can sharpen up then the results should start to come.
It is easier said then done though and I'm sure Hardwick is aware of the work required and won't be getting ahead of himself by any means.
Daniel Jackson will miss again with injury but the inclusion of Trent Cotchin was really positive last week with his class around the stoppages so crucial.
He kicked two very nice goals and used the ball sublimely and his assistance at the stoppages for Cousins, Tuck, Martin and co is so important.
If you add a fit Jackson and Foley to that group it's no surprise as to why there are so many wraps on their midfield.
Then there's Ben Cousins. The story about his second chance at football is about far more then sport, it's about potentially saving his life and reaching out for him in his time of need.
A guy that gave the game so much was brought back into the footballing family at his time of need and if you hear from Ben and his father Bryan in that documentary you get an understanding for how significant it was that they gave him that lifeline.
He will forever hold a special love for the Richmond football club and that will be a telling factor on Sunday.
His teammates have a wonderful repour with him and he has taught them plenty over the two years.
Whilst the partnership maybe not have been immensely successful on field in terms of wins and losses, the impression he has left on his some of his teammates will be telling.
Expect a big crowd to show up Sunday to wrap up one of the most controversial yet brilliant football careers.
A few weeks ago I pictured this game panning out like the Hawthorn v Geelong clash in Round 22 of 2006 with a young emerging side smashing a team that had faced much scrutiny all year for under achieving.
I could see Richmond doing that to Port Adelaide, but the Power have experienced a ressurection of their own in the past six weeks and will be keen to finish the year strongly.
However I still think this will be Richmond's day.
With a big crowd in support, some young kids playing with confidence and the incentive to send Ben Cousins off in style I think it will be a fitting end for the number 32.
Send him off in style they will, and win number seven will be forthcoming for Dimma's men.
Richmond by 28 points
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Preview- Western Bulldogs vs Essendon - Round 22
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon - Etihad Stadium - Saturday Night
Western Bulldogs -4th - 13-8-124.82%
Essendon - 14th - 7-14 - 80.70%
Will this be the last time Matthew Knights coaches the Bombers? And are the Bulldogs done in 2010?
These two questions are the main focus points in another week both of these clubs would rather forget.
For Essendon, one last chance at pride presents itself this saturday night when they take on the Western Bulldogs whilst for the Dogs it is a chance to desperately find some form before a monumental assignment in week one of the finals.
Down at Windy Hill, scrutiny has once again been placed on Matthew Knights on the back of another dissapointing loss, this time to a Brisbane side that has struggled for most of the year.
Supporters have been hammering talkback radio calling for Knights head, and some extending that anger towards the board as well.
Say what you like about Essendon, the situation at present is probably untenable even if elements of the criticism are unfair.
Matthew Lloyd made the point in regards to defence in that to be a very good side you need to develop a strong defensive component to your game and sadly for the Bombers they have been unable to do so under Knights duration as coach.
In 2008 they conceeded more points then any other side, last year they conceeded the fifth most, and this season they are back to the most conceeded and this is an area you would want to see some improvement in.
Essendon conceed more inside fifties then anyone else, a higher percentage of marks once inside fifty then any one, the most effective disposals and the most points directly from stoppages.
This indicates that it probably isn't the fault of actual defence, but more a by product of the side's horrendous ability to apply pressure and restrict opposition ball carriers.
Too often teams get easy ball against Essendon and can execute under little pressure going forward.
The Bombers desperately need more clearance support for Jobe Watson who flies the flag in there, and it's pleasing that Mark McVeigh has signed on for a further two years to add some experience, even if he is likely to play out time in defence.
The question needs to be asked though, is it Knight's coaching? Or does he simply not have the cattle to execute a more defensive style of footy?
I think it is probably a combination of both but my main issue is the Bombers fans are destroying their own club due to a misguided sense of expectation.
Essendon fans through no fault of their own had been spoon fed success for nearly two and a half decades under Kevin Sheedy and there tends to be a total lack of tolerance to the work required in a rebuild.
Matthew Knights has been there three years. Some see that as long enough to turn them back into a force, but when you consider how appaling the list was when he took over surely people can cut him a degree of slack?
On the field the positives this year have been Carlisle, Hardingham, Gumbleton, Colyer, Melksham, Howlett, Hooker and probably Ryder.
Essendon's list has improved a lot in recent years and they should be optimistic going forward over the next few years whether Knights is coach or not.
Their opponents the Bulldogs have endured a week from hell with several big names succumbing to injury and a second straight belting on the eve of the finals.
Dale Morris and Adam Cooney will miss the remainder of the season, Brad Johnson could conceivably never play again and Shaun Higgins remains a source of frustration as he battles ongoing calf/illness issues.
On field they were trounced by the Swans and some key stat areas were particularly concerning.
The Bulldogs conceeded 104 more disposals and 82 more uncontested posessions to Sydney their worst differential in each stat for the entire season.
One of the strengths of Rodney Eade's men is their ability to win first posession at stoppages but in the past fortnight they have been destroyed in these areas and that's where their own lack of pressure can hurt them.
They rank last for tackles this season and have also caught opposition sides holding the ball just 61 times this season, the worst of any team in the comp.
If the Bulldogs are beaten in the clearances you can invaraibly say good night very quickly.
The good news is they play one of the worst stoppage teams in the league on Saturday night and it provides them with the chance for some much needed confidence leading into September.
It is nearly impossible to see this team winning a flag without Cooney and Morris plus possibly one or two others, but they do have some solid depth and they will carry a top four finish into September which always gives you a chance.
If they can somehow beat Collingwood in that first final, somehow, they will earn a week off, freshen a few blokes up and host a preliminary final and you just never know.
I strongly doubt they can still win the flag, and they may not have been able too anyway, but they aren't going to finish top four based on what they have done in the past fortnight, they will do it based on the previous six weeks of excellence.
Eagleton, Moles, Hill etc are going to have to step up and assume the responsibility left behind by these guys and it poses unwanted headaches for the coaching staff.
Rodney Eade will be aware of the fact Essendon got hold of them last time and the strange enigma with the Dons is that five of their seven wins have come against top eight teams this year which would suggest to you that they can play.
Consistency for both of these teams is probably the big issue, but the Bulldogs boast more depth and a greater spread of options at both ends of the ground.
In particular though it's ther numbers through the middle, even without Cooney that should have too much for the tired Bombers.
In what could be the end of the road for Knights, there will be no fairytale, and for the Bulldogs a bit of hope before it all really hots up!
Bulldogs by 27 points
Western Bulldogs -4th - 13-8-124.82%
Essendon - 14th - 7-14 - 80.70%
Will this be the last time Matthew Knights coaches the Bombers? And are the Bulldogs done in 2010?
These two questions are the main focus points in another week both of these clubs would rather forget.
For Essendon, one last chance at pride presents itself this saturday night when they take on the Western Bulldogs whilst for the Dogs it is a chance to desperately find some form before a monumental assignment in week one of the finals.
Down at Windy Hill, scrutiny has once again been placed on Matthew Knights on the back of another dissapointing loss, this time to a Brisbane side that has struggled for most of the year.
Supporters have been hammering talkback radio calling for Knights head, and some extending that anger towards the board as well.
Say what you like about Essendon, the situation at present is probably untenable even if elements of the criticism are unfair.
Matthew Lloyd made the point in regards to defence in that to be a very good side you need to develop a strong defensive component to your game and sadly for the Bombers they have been unable to do so under Knights duration as coach.
In 2008 they conceeded more points then any other side, last year they conceeded the fifth most, and this season they are back to the most conceeded and this is an area you would want to see some improvement in.
Essendon conceed more inside fifties then anyone else, a higher percentage of marks once inside fifty then any one, the most effective disposals and the most points directly from stoppages.
This indicates that it probably isn't the fault of actual defence, but more a by product of the side's horrendous ability to apply pressure and restrict opposition ball carriers.
Too often teams get easy ball against Essendon and can execute under little pressure going forward.
The Bombers desperately need more clearance support for Jobe Watson who flies the flag in there, and it's pleasing that Mark McVeigh has signed on for a further two years to add some experience, even if he is likely to play out time in defence.
The question needs to be asked though, is it Knight's coaching? Or does he simply not have the cattle to execute a more defensive style of footy?
I think it is probably a combination of both but my main issue is the Bombers fans are destroying their own club due to a misguided sense of expectation.
Essendon fans through no fault of their own had been spoon fed success for nearly two and a half decades under Kevin Sheedy and there tends to be a total lack of tolerance to the work required in a rebuild.
Matthew Knights has been there three years. Some see that as long enough to turn them back into a force, but when you consider how appaling the list was when he took over surely people can cut him a degree of slack?
On the field the positives this year have been Carlisle, Hardingham, Gumbleton, Colyer, Melksham, Howlett, Hooker and probably Ryder.
Essendon's list has improved a lot in recent years and they should be optimistic going forward over the next few years whether Knights is coach or not.
Their opponents the Bulldogs have endured a week from hell with several big names succumbing to injury and a second straight belting on the eve of the finals.
Dale Morris and Adam Cooney will miss the remainder of the season, Brad Johnson could conceivably never play again and Shaun Higgins remains a source of frustration as he battles ongoing calf/illness issues.
On field they were trounced by the Swans and some key stat areas were particularly concerning.
The Bulldogs conceeded 104 more disposals and 82 more uncontested posessions to Sydney their worst differential in each stat for the entire season.
One of the strengths of Rodney Eade's men is their ability to win first posession at stoppages but in the past fortnight they have been destroyed in these areas and that's where their own lack of pressure can hurt them.
They rank last for tackles this season and have also caught opposition sides holding the ball just 61 times this season, the worst of any team in the comp.
If the Bulldogs are beaten in the clearances you can invaraibly say good night very quickly.
The good news is they play one of the worst stoppage teams in the league on Saturday night and it provides them with the chance for some much needed confidence leading into September.
It is nearly impossible to see this team winning a flag without Cooney and Morris plus possibly one or two others, but they do have some solid depth and they will carry a top four finish into September which always gives you a chance.
If they can somehow beat Collingwood in that first final, somehow, they will earn a week off, freshen a few blokes up and host a preliminary final and you just never know.
I strongly doubt they can still win the flag, and they may not have been able too anyway, but they aren't going to finish top four based on what they have done in the past fortnight, they will do it based on the previous six weeks of excellence.
Eagleton, Moles, Hill etc are going to have to step up and assume the responsibility left behind by these guys and it poses unwanted headaches for the coaching staff.
Rodney Eade will be aware of the fact Essendon got hold of them last time and the strange enigma with the Dons is that five of their seven wins have come against top eight teams this year which would suggest to you that they can play.
Consistency for both of these teams is probably the big issue, but the Bulldogs boast more depth and a greater spread of options at both ends of the ground.
In particular though it's ther numbers through the middle, even without Cooney that should have too much for the tired Bombers.
In what could be the end of the road for Knights, there will be no fairytale, and for the Bulldogs a bit of hope before it all really hots up!
Bulldogs by 27 points
Preview - Adelaide vs St.Kilda - Round 22
Adelaide vs St.Kilda - Aami Stadium - Saturday
Adelaide - 12th - 8-13 - 92.64%
St.Kilda - 3rd - 15-5-1 - 124.38%
Adelaide and St.Kilda will lock horns at the unusual time of 3:40 on a Saturday in what looms as an intriguing Round 22 Clash.
For St.Kilda, week one of the finals is confirmed and they will meet the Cats the following Saturday in an enormous game.
For Adelaide a trying and fascinating season will end with the club farewelling up to four of their finest servants.
Premiership stars Andrew Mcleod, Simon Goodwin and Tyson Edwards have all given it away this season, as has high flying forward Brett Burton and the sad part is due to injury, none of them will be given a farewell game. (With the exception of Edwards back in the middle of the year.)
However their presence will no doubt give all their teammates a massive lift as they close the book on a proud era for this wonderful club.
On field, despite an enormous injury list, the Crows have been very solid since that horrendous start.
Since Round 6 they are 8-7 in terms of Win - Loss, and have recaptured that dogged tenacity that was one of the cornerstones of Neil Craig's coaching.
Last week was a typical example, coming off a difficult assignment on a hot day in Brisbane they ran the might of Collingwood all the way to the line.
In recent weeks they have also defeated Geelong, and pushed the Western Bulldogs hard so they can certainly win this game given they have nothing to lose and the Saints have plenty.
St.Kilda will no doubt have a crack, they always do under Ross, but they are safe in the top four and you must subconsciously have an eye on the first week in September no matter how hard you try to avoid it.
Mackay, Jaensch, Henderson, Davis and a host of others have improved this side this year, and they were keen to make a statement to Nathan Bock and the footy world that they were very much ok going forward without their former star.
Their defensive zone set up last week was fantastic and simply gave Collingwood no run out of defence and restricted the way they went forward.
The Crows have lost the Inside fifty count in each of their last five games against St.Kilda, and 14 times this season, they have also laid on average 10 fewer taclkes then their opponent in each game.
Stats that don't look flash against St.Kilda, however they have been the best side in the comp for marks inside fifty per number of entries this year, and if they are precise going in, the Saints can be vulnerable.
For St.Kilda last week was a very open affair and a good hit out for the boys in what was a surprisingly free flowing game given the nature of the Saints style and the fact they have strangled Richmond on each of the last two occasions they met.
With no Jones or Hayes in the middle they had lost a bit of grunt and that was evident with the Tigers doing well as per normal around the stoppages.
Jack Riewoldt was isolated one on one and given the quick ball movement, and his undeniable class meant he was always a handful for Sam Fisher firstly and then Jason Blake.
Kurt Tippett has had a couple of good days against St.Kilda over the journey so the Crows will no doubt be trying to maximise his space.
With Hayes, Jones, Gardiner and Dawson all available for selection this week, St.Kilda will essentially only have Steven Baker missing from their best 22, and the nuggety defender will return in the first final the following week.
St.Kilda ranked second for disposal efficiency this year meaning they are lethal on the turnover, but also excellent at controlling the tempo by keeping posession.
This is also evident by the fact they only let sides play on from 35% of the marks they take ranked first in the competition.
Adelaide will need to be smart and pro-active as this year they have struggled against the sides that specialise in stifling run.
For the Saints it's largely all about injury preservation but at the same time you cannot flirt with form and no-one wants to enter the finals on a loss.
With Bock missing as a potential match up for Riewoldt you would expect Davis might get a go at it, with Rutten taking the slower, yet building Justin Koschitzke.
Johncock might get Milne with Schneider probably the difficult match up given his outstanding form and ability to push into the middle.
Blake will get Tippett, with Fisher possibly lining up on Henderson. James Gwilt seems the logical man for Taylor Walker given the size and mobility of the two is similar.
Clinton Jones will do the tagging role most likely on Scott Thompson who has been a star this year.
On to the result, and whilst Adelaide are certainly finishing strongly it has been an emotional few weeks for an essentially young group missing a stack of players and whilst they will be keen to send off their retiring stars, there is also potential for a let down.
St.Kilda are a touch vulnerable given the timing, but are also such a dogged determined group and I think they will still come to play.
I could see St.Kilda putting too much pressure on the young Crows runners and controlling the stoppages with some bigger bodies.
Should be tight, and dour but the Saints to make it sweet 16 and gear up for the mighty Cats!
St.Kilda by 11 points
Adelaide - 12th - 8-13 - 92.64%
St.Kilda - 3rd - 15-5-1 - 124.38%
Adelaide and St.Kilda will lock horns at the unusual time of 3:40 on a Saturday in what looms as an intriguing Round 22 Clash.
For St.Kilda, week one of the finals is confirmed and they will meet the Cats the following Saturday in an enormous game.
For Adelaide a trying and fascinating season will end with the club farewelling up to four of their finest servants.
Premiership stars Andrew Mcleod, Simon Goodwin and Tyson Edwards have all given it away this season, as has high flying forward Brett Burton and the sad part is due to injury, none of them will be given a farewell game. (With the exception of Edwards back in the middle of the year.)
However their presence will no doubt give all their teammates a massive lift as they close the book on a proud era for this wonderful club.
On field, despite an enormous injury list, the Crows have been very solid since that horrendous start.
Since Round 6 they are 8-7 in terms of Win - Loss, and have recaptured that dogged tenacity that was one of the cornerstones of Neil Craig's coaching.
Last week was a typical example, coming off a difficult assignment on a hot day in Brisbane they ran the might of Collingwood all the way to the line.
In recent weeks they have also defeated Geelong, and pushed the Western Bulldogs hard so they can certainly win this game given they have nothing to lose and the Saints have plenty.
St.Kilda will no doubt have a crack, they always do under Ross, but they are safe in the top four and you must subconsciously have an eye on the first week in September no matter how hard you try to avoid it.
Mackay, Jaensch, Henderson, Davis and a host of others have improved this side this year, and they were keen to make a statement to Nathan Bock and the footy world that they were very much ok going forward without their former star.
Their defensive zone set up last week was fantastic and simply gave Collingwood no run out of defence and restricted the way they went forward.
The Crows have lost the Inside fifty count in each of their last five games against St.Kilda, and 14 times this season, they have also laid on average 10 fewer taclkes then their opponent in each game.
Stats that don't look flash against St.Kilda, however they have been the best side in the comp for marks inside fifty per number of entries this year, and if they are precise going in, the Saints can be vulnerable.
For St.Kilda last week was a very open affair and a good hit out for the boys in what was a surprisingly free flowing game given the nature of the Saints style and the fact they have strangled Richmond on each of the last two occasions they met.
With no Jones or Hayes in the middle they had lost a bit of grunt and that was evident with the Tigers doing well as per normal around the stoppages.
Jack Riewoldt was isolated one on one and given the quick ball movement, and his undeniable class meant he was always a handful for Sam Fisher firstly and then Jason Blake.
Kurt Tippett has had a couple of good days against St.Kilda over the journey so the Crows will no doubt be trying to maximise his space.
With Hayes, Jones, Gardiner and Dawson all available for selection this week, St.Kilda will essentially only have Steven Baker missing from their best 22, and the nuggety defender will return in the first final the following week.
St.Kilda ranked second for disposal efficiency this year meaning they are lethal on the turnover, but also excellent at controlling the tempo by keeping posession.
This is also evident by the fact they only let sides play on from 35% of the marks they take ranked first in the competition.
Adelaide will need to be smart and pro-active as this year they have struggled against the sides that specialise in stifling run.
For the Saints it's largely all about injury preservation but at the same time you cannot flirt with form and no-one wants to enter the finals on a loss.
With Bock missing as a potential match up for Riewoldt you would expect Davis might get a go at it, with Rutten taking the slower, yet building Justin Koschitzke.
Johncock might get Milne with Schneider probably the difficult match up given his outstanding form and ability to push into the middle.
Blake will get Tippett, with Fisher possibly lining up on Henderson. James Gwilt seems the logical man for Taylor Walker given the size and mobility of the two is similar.
Clinton Jones will do the tagging role most likely on Scott Thompson who has been a star this year.
On to the result, and whilst Adelaide are certainly finishing strongly it has been an emotional few weeks for an essentially young group missing a stack of players and whilst they will be keen to send off their retiring stars, there is also potential for a let down.
St.Kilda are a touch vulnerable given the timing, but are also such a dogged determined group and I think they will still come to play.
I could see St.Kilda putting too much pressure on the young Crows runners and controlling the stoppages with some bigger bodies.
Should be tight, and dour but the Saints to make it sweet 16 and gear up for the mighty Cats!
St.Kilda by 11 points
Preview - Hawthorn vs Collingwood - Round 22
Hawthorn vs Collingwood - MCG- Saturday
Hawthorn - 7th - 11-9-1 - 111.07%
Collingwood - 1st - 17-3-1 - 144.49%
Saturday afternoon footy at the MCG will be the stage for another blockbuster clash this week with the desperate Hawks taking on the might of the rampaging Magpies.
For Hawthorn, it is in all likelihood a must win clash if they are to avoid a trip to Sydney or Perth in the first week of the finals whilst for Collingwood it is an opportunity to fend off a would be challenger, and fine tune their side for September.
Leigh Brown will miss the clash through suspension which has opened the door for Josh Fraser to play his long awaited 200th game.
It could also potentially be his last for the club as well, although if he played a blinder it would create an interesting dilemma for Mick Malthouse and his men.
Would they bring Leigh Brown straight back in if say Josh Fraser kicked four goals and had twenty five posessions?
Purely hypothetical, but would be an interesting conundrum just the same if it were to eventuate.
Paul Medhurst is also a potential inclusion with Allan Didak pulling up sore with a shoulder at training during the week, and a rest may be on the cards.
Last week the Magpies dodged a bullet against the Crows but in many ways the game had some positives.
Yes they again kicked poorly in front of goals, and Adelaide controlled the tempo of the game throughout, but despite that Collingwood still found a way to win, and it was simply through weight of numbers that they did so.
They kicked just six goals for the game, but generated so many chances and inside fifties that they eventually got over the top of them.
They will want to kick straighter, but few sides can stem the tide against them for long enough to get over the top.
Hawthorn with the exception of their Round 4 meeting this year have had the wood over the Pies with some thumping wins over them in recent seasons.
Franklin and Hodge have career best records against them and provided Hodge plays they will both draw a lot of attention.
For Hawthorn, last week was a difficult game to get a reading on. Yes Hawthorn were ruthless and slick, but they played less then a rabble with several big name Fremantle players out of the side.
However in saying that, you still have to get the job done and the likes of Rioli, Burgoyne, Ellis and co all found some ominous form.
Shaun Burgoyne in particular is such a smooth mover and too see him in full flight this close to September is a huge bonus.
If Hawthorn win, they need either Fremantle or Sydney to lose if they are to earn a home final in the first week.
If they lose they could play either Fremantle in Perth, Sydney in Sydney (the least prefered option) or Carlton at the MCG (probably the best option).
It has the potential to be a blockbuster no doubt, but there is a heck of a lot more on the line for the Hawks this week so you wonder what attitude Collingwood might take.
I would imagine they would go quite hard given you don't want to drop a game this close to September and they could meet the Hawks again in a couple of weeks if certain results go that way.
Lance Franklin will draw either Nathan Brown or Reid, but more then likely Brown given Reid probably won't return from injury.
Roughead would then get either O'Brien or Maxwell and this is an area Hawthorn could exploit.
With two first choice key backs unavailable, Hawthorn have the capabilities to stretch Collingwood with the two big guys up forward.
Rioli if he plays forward might get Toovey or Shaw, with the other likely to match up on Michael Osborne.
At the other end, Gilham should get Dawes and perhaps the exciting young Ben Stratton will play on Travis Cloke who is in dangerous form despite his kicking yips.
Dale Thomas in in career best form and is such an important player with his skill and smarts, and he could perhaps draw a lock down player.
Collingwood are the hardest team to tag with their heavy rotations but you simply must put some time into a couple of their midfield runners due to the number of options otherwise you will get overwhelmed.
This game will be a very tight affair, but with the exception of last week Collingwood have been absolutely outstanding.
Hawthorn will throw everything at them and will enter the game in solid form, but they just lack the defensive spread to counter all of Collingwood's options, and I could also see the Pies having a slight edge in midfield depth, maybe not class, but certainly the spread of options.
Expect a hard fought finals like affair, but in a possible pre-curser of things to come, Collingwood will take this one.
Collingwood by 8 points
Hawthorn - 7th - 11-9-1 - 111.07%
Collingwood - 1st - 17-3-1 - 144.49%
Saturday afternoon footy at the MCG will be the stage for another blockbuster clash this week with the desperate Hawks taking on the might of the rampaging Magpies.
For Hawthorn, it is in all likelihood a must win clash if they are to avoid a trip to Sydney or Perth in the first week of the finals whilst for Collingwood it is an opportunity to fend off a would be challenger, and fine tune their side for September.
Leigh Brown will miss the clash through suspension which has opened the door for Josh Fraser to play his long awaited 200th game.
It could also potentially be his last for the club as well, although if he played a blinder it would create an interesting dilemma for Mick Malthouse and his men.
Would they bring Leigh Brown straight back in if say Josh Fraser kicked four goals and had twenty five posessions?
Purely hypothetical, but would be an interesting conundrum just the same if it were to eventuate.
Paul Medhurst is also a potential inclusion with Allan Didak pulling up sore with a shoulder at training during the week, and a rest may be on the cards.
Last week the Magpies dodged a bullet against the Crows but in many ways the game had some positives.
Yes they again kicked poorly in front of goals, and Adelaide controlled the tempo of the game throughout, but despite that Collingwood still found a way to win, and it was simply through weight of numbers that they did so.
They kicked just six goals for the game, but generated so many chances and inside fifties that they eventually got over the top of them.
They will want to kick straighter, but few sides can stem the tide against them for long enough to get over the top.
Hawthorn with the exception of their Round 4 meeting this year have had the wood over the Pies with some thumping wins over them in recent seasons.
Franklin and Hodge have career best records against them and provided Hodge plays they will both draw a lot of attention.
For Hawthorn, last week was a difficult game to get a reading on. Yes Hawthorn were ruthless and slick, but they played less then a rabble with several big name Fremantle players out of the side.
However in saying that, you still have to get the job done and the likes of Rioli, Burgoyne, Ellis and co all found some ominous form.
Shaun Burgoyne in particular is such a smooth mover and too see him in full flight this close to September is a huge bonus.
If Hawthorn win, they need either Fremantle or Sydney to lose if they are to earn a home final in the first week.
If they lose they could play either Fremantle in Perth, Sydney in Sydney (the least prefered option) or Carlton at the MCG (probably the best option).
It has the potential to be a blockbuster no doubt, but there is a heck of a lot more on the line for the Hawks this week so you wonder what attitude Collingwood might take.
I would imagine they would go quite hard given you don't want to drop a game this close to September and they could meet the Hawks again in a couple of weeks if certain results go that way.
Lance Franklin will draw either Nathan Brown or Reid, but more then likely Brown given Reid probably won't return from injury.
Roughead would then get either O'Brien or Maxwell and this is an area Hawthorn could exploit.
With two first choice key backs unavailable, Hawthorn have the capabilities to stretch Collingwood with the two big guys up forward.
Rioli if he plays forward might get Toovey or Shaw, with the other likely to match up on Michael Osborne.
At the other end, Gilham should get Dawes and perhaps the exciting young Ben Stratton will play on Travis Cloke who is in dangerous form despite his kicking yips.
Dale Thomas in in career best form and is such an important player with his skill and smarts, and he could perhaps draw a lock down player.
Collingwood are the hardest team to tag with their heavy rotations but you simply must put some time into a couple of their midfield runners due to the number of options otherwise you will get overwhelmed.
This game will be a very tight affair, but with the exception of last week Collingwood have been absolutely outstanding.
Hawthorn will throw everything at them and will enter the game in solid form, but they just lack the defensive spread to counter all of Collingwood's options, and I could also see the Pies having a slight edge in midfield depth, maybe not class, but certainly the spread of options.
Expect a hard fought finals like affair, but in a possible pre-curser of things to come, Collingwood will take this one.
Collingwood by 8 points
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Preview - Geelong vs Westcoast - Round 22
Geelong vs Westcoast - Skilled Stadium - Round 22
Geelong - 2nd - 16-5 - 147.25%
Westcoast - 16th - 4-17 - 77.93%
Skilled Stadium will play host to a game on Saturday afternoon where the only questions will be, how far Geelong? and will everyone get through unscathed?
The Eagles are at the finish line on a painful season, one in which they will take out the wooden spoon for the first time in the club's history.
For Geelong last week was another solid an impressive win over a side that has given them much trouble in the past couple of years and they will enter this game with close to a full list available.
Bomber Thompson indicated that Geelong would not be holding back at the selection table this week as they look to fine tune for a September assault they hope will net a third flag in four years.
Max Rooke is probably done and dusted now for season 2010, he did not play VFL last week which means he has not played at any level for over four months and as good as he is, you couldn't see them bringing him in blind for a september campaign given the depth they possess.
Ling, Lonergan, Ottens and Mackie should all return this week which creates dilemmas for the coaching staff as they determine just who should miss out.
Podsiadly and Hunt are the obvious ones given they copped suspensions, and maybe young Menzel could be stiff and get squeezed out along with Taylor Hunt.
Given the fact Podsiadly is out, you would expect Hawkins too get pushed forward, with Blake holding on to ruck duties with Brad Ottens.
Paul Chapman, Gary Ablett and Jimmy Bartel appear to have been a bit sore over the last five to six weeks but all of them continue to contribute and they will use this game as another chance to run some conditioning into their legs for finals.
In terms of the contest, their isn't much to analyse from a Geelong point of you, they have a clear edge in every single area and will canter to an easy win, it's all about that first final against the Saints.
For the Eagles, the last three weeks haven't been terrible, but they have come away without anything to show.
Two last minute defeats at the hands of the Lions and the Power confirmed they would win the spoon, and then last week they led the Kangaroos by a couple of goals early in the last term only to be overrun.
Sadly for them that is the classic sign of an ordinary side, the inability to run games out, and the tendency to get overtaken late in matches.
Mark LeCras is struggling for his best touch, he has four goals from his last three matches and will face a difficult assignment this week.
Callum Wilson came in and kicked four last week and he is the latest in what has been a revolving door through that Eagles forward line all season.
Ben McKinley must surely be playing elsewhere next year, most likely in Victoria I would suspect and Quinten Lynch is at the crossroads on a career that at times has promised much.
Natanui and Cox were ok last week and in all respects remain one of the more dangerous duos in the competition, but they just need a bit more inside presence in the middle of the ground.
Priddis, Embley etc provide a bit of experience, but the likes of Masten, Ebert, Scott Selwood and co need to mature and collectively the group has to sharpen up.
They are the worst team in the competition by foot and they simply slaughter the football far too much in non pressure situations.
John Worsfold could potentially coach his last game this weekend as the scrutiny continues to build on the favourite son.
This game represents one last chance for some pride in season 2010, but sadly the task is monumentally tough.
Geelong often do just what they have to do in these games and cruise around and win by around eight goals, but I suspect this saturday they will be searching for a kill.
Much has been said about the Pies form over the past two months, and their opponents for week one of the finals St.Kilda are gathering a bit of steam as well so I think Geelong will be keen to deliver another savage message to the competition.
Unfortunately for the Eagles, everywhere you look, they are powerless to stop it.
Geelong by 77 points.
Geelong - 2nd - 16-5 - 147.25%
Westcoast - 16th - 4-17 - 77.93%
Skilled Stadium will play host to a game on Saturday afternoon where the only questions will be, how far Geelong? and will everyone get through unscathed?
The Eagles are at the finish line on a painful season, one in which they will take out the wooden spoon for the first time in the club's history.
For Geelong last week was another solid an impressive win over a side that has given them much trouble in the past couple of years and they will enter this game with close to a full list available.
Bomber Thompson indicated that Geelong would not be holding back at the selection table this week as they look to fine tune for a September assault they hope will net a third flag in four years.
Max Rooke is probably done and dusted now for season 2010, he did not play VFL last week which means he has not played at any level for over four months and as good as he is, you couldn't see them bringing him in blind for a september campaign given the depth they possess.
Ling, Lonergan, Ottens and Mackie should all return this week which creates dilemmas for the coaching staff as they determine just who should miss out.
Podsiadly and Hunt are the obvious ones given they copped suspensions, and maybe young Menzel could be stiff and get squeezed out along with Taylor Hunt.
Given the fact Podsiadly is out, you would expect Hawkins too get pushed forward, with Blake holding on to ruck duties with Brad Ottens.
Paul Chapman, Gary Ablett and Jimmy Bartel appear to have been a bit sore over the last five to six weeks but all of them continue to contribute and they will use this game as another chance to run some conditioning into their legs for finals.
In terms of the contest, their isn't much to analyse from a Geelong point of you, they have a clear edge in every single area and will canter to an easy win, it's all about that first final against the Saints.
For the Eagles, the last three weeks haven't been terrible, but they have come away without anything to show.
Two last minute defeats at the hands of the Lions and the Power confirmed they would win the spoon, and then last week they led the Kangaroos by a couple of goals early in the last term only to be overrun.
Sadly for them that is the classic sign of an ordinary side, the inability to run games out, and the tendency to get overtaken late in matches.
Mark LeCras is struggling for his best touch, he has four goals from his last three matches and will face a difficult assignment this week.
Callum Wilson came in and kicked four last week and he is the latest in what has been a revolving door through that Eagles forward line all season.
Ben McKinley must surely be playing elsewhere next year, most likely in Victoria I would suspect and Quinten Lynch is at the crossroads on a career that at times has promised much.
Natanui and Cox were ok last week and in all respects remain one of the more dangerous duos in the competition, but they just need a bit more inside presence in the middle of the ground.
Priddis, Embley etc provide a bit of experience, but the likes of Masten, Ebert, Scott Selwood and co need to mature and collectively the group has to sharpen up.
They are the worst team in the competition by foot and they simply slaughter the football far too much in non pressure situations.
John Worsfold could potentially coach his last game this weekend as the scrutiny continues to build on the favourite son.
This game represents one last chance for some pride in season 2010, but sadly the task is monumentally tough.
Geelong often do just what they have to do in these games and cruise around and win by around eight goals, but I suspect this saturday they will be searching for a kill.
Much has been said about the Pies form over the past two months, and their opponents for week one of the finals St.Kilda are gathering a bit of steam as well so I think Geelong will be keen to deliver another savage message to the competition.
Unfortunately for the Eagles, everywhere you look, they are powerless to stop it.
Geelong by 77 points.
Preview- Fremantle vs Carlton - Round 22
Fremantle vs Carlton - Subiaco - Friday Night
Fremantle 6th - 12-9 - 103.75%
Carlton 8th - 11-10 - 108.78%
Undeniably the rounds biggest clash will take place this friday night when Fremantle host Carlton for the right to host a final in the first week of September.
Both of these sides are coming off defeats from Round 21 and for whoever loses, the following week becomes an extremely difficult assignment.
Fremantle rested up to ten big names and the end result was an embarrassing hiding at the hands of Hawthorn in Tasmania.
For Carlton, it was a dissapointing yet not horrendous performance against Geelong, but I was surprised how satisfied most were with the result.
Carlton had beaten the Cats twice in succession, both easily and whilst it was always going to be difficult, I'm surprised so many were proud of what was ultimately a hefty defeat with much at stake.
Some of the signs out of the game were pleasing with Lachie Henderson showing plenty, Robbie Warnock working well, Mitch Robinson providing a lot of life and Jarrod Waite strong and steady in attack.
However defensively was where a lot of the issues were. Geelong scored far too easily going forward with Podsiadly leading the way in attack.
The Blues are a bit like Essendon in many ways in that the gap between their best and worst can be substantial.
The barometer for this form gap is generally defensive pressure, much like it is with the Bombers who are famous for their tendency to get sliced open.
Carlton ran and linked up well all night, but produced just three tackles in the first quarter and only fourteen up until half time.
In that second quarter when Geelong started to win the stoppages, that lack of pressure was a telling factor with the Cats kicking six goals to one in twenty minutes to open the contest up.
Carlton fought hard in the third term, but were always up against it from there.
This week I'd suspect they would select Hampson and drop Jacobs due to Hampson's greater mobility on the wider ground against the returning Sandilands.
Carlton generally enjoy the space at the ground and should enjoy the freedom that the bigger surface will offer them.
For the Dockers last week was either a tactical triumph or a massive fail. Only time will be the judge of that one.
Fremantle entered Round 21 knowing they needed to win one of their last two games if they were to earn a home final in the first week.
Mark Harvey identified that many of his key players were feeling the pinch at the end of a long season and decided to rest them all, and put his eggs into one basket and roll the dice on a Round 22 assault on Carlton.
You can certainly understand his thinking, whilst a coach would never conceed defeat, given form and fitness they were probably unlikely to beat Hawthorn, and when you consider it's a six hour trip to Tasmania, spanning two flights and they would then have faced a six day break for this week's clash, you can see the logic.
It's a risk, and a massive roll of the dice, but I can totally understand why Harvey went down that path.
Part of the risk is Fremantle could make 13 changes which can certainly have a destabilising effect on a group, we have seen this happen in the past and Brett Ratten certainly alluded to it in his mid week presser.
Ratten questioned whether it was possible to flick a switch back on and find your form straight away and once again only time will be the judge of that.
Pavlich, Sandilands, Hill, Mundy and Hasleby are just five of the big names to return with the first two undoubtedly the most significant.
You would suspect Bower or Walker would get first crack at Pavlich if he plays forward, and maybe a Mitch Robinson could get a run with role if he plays through the middle.
The match promises to be entertaining with two highly attacking, fast and slick midfields who can struggle from time to time defensively.
But right at this point in time I think Carlton are travelling the better of the two sides, they are certainly the more settled and will relish the open space at Subiaco which is a ground they have played quite well on lately.
With Judd back on familiar soil I get the feeling he, Murphy, Gibbs, Carazzo, Simpson and the small forwards Garlett, Betts and more then likely Yarran will have too much class for a Dockers side who's season has gone pear shaped.
Freo took a risk, and in many ways I think it may work, as the boys should be fresher and sharper, and we need to remember this is a very good side when at their best.
But they haven't been at their best since about Round 12 and the Blues with the benefit of a little more experience will go a long way towards booking a home final.
Carlton by 15 points
Fremantle 6th - 12-9 - 103.75%
Carlton 8th - 11-10 - 108.78%
Undeniably the rounds biggest clash will take place this friday night when Fremantle host Carlton for the right to host a final in the first week of September.
Both of these sides are coming off defeats from Round 21 and for whoever loses, the following week becomes an extremely difficult assignment.
Fremantle rested up to ten big names and the end result was an embarrassing hiding at the hands of Hawthorn in Tasmania.
For Carlton, it was a dissapointing yet not horrendous performance against Geelong, but I was surprised how satisfied most were with the result.
Carlton had beaten the Cats twice in succession, both easily and whilst it was always going to be difficult, I'm surprised so many were proud of what was ultimately a hefty defeat with much at stake.
Some of the signs out of the game were pleasing with Lachie Henderson showing plenty, Robbie Warnock working well, Mitch Robinson providing a lot of life and Jarrod Waite strong and steady in attack.
However defensively was where a lot of the issues were. Geelong scored far too easily going forward with Podsiadly leading the way in attack.
The Blues are a bit like Essendon in many ways in that the gap between their best and worst can be substantial.
The barometer for this form gap is generally defensive pressure, much like it is with the Bombers who are famous for their tendency to get sliced open.
Carlton ran and linked up well all night, but produced just three tackles in the first quarter and only fourteen up until half time.
In that second quarter when Geelong started to win the stoppages, that lack of pressure was a telling factor with the Cats kicking six goals to one in twenty minutes to open the contest up.
Carlton fought hard in the third term, but were always up against it from there.
This week I'd suspect they would select Hampson and drop Jacobs due to Hampson's greater mobility on the wider ground against the returning Sandilands.
Carlton generally enjoy the space at the ground and should enjoy the freedom that the bigger surface will offer them.
For the Dockers last week was either a tactical triumph or a massive fail. Only time will be the judge of that one.
Fremantle entered Round 21 knowing they needed to win one of their last two games if they were to earn a home final in the first week.
Mark Harvey identified that many of his key players were feeling the pinch at the end of a long season and decided to rest them all, and put his eggs into one basket and roll the dice on a Round 22 assault on Carlton.
You can certainly understand his thinking, whilst a coach would never conceed defeat, given form and fitness they were probably unlikely to beat Hawthorn, and when you consider it's a six hour trip to Tasmania, spanning two flights and they would then have faced a six day break for this week's clash, you can see the logic.
It's a risk, and a massive roll of the dice, but I can totally understand why Harvey went down that path.
Part of the risk is Fremantle could make 13 changes which can certainly have a destabilising effect on a group, we have seen this happen in the past and Brett Ratten certainly alluded to it in his mid week presser.
Ratten questioned whether it was possible to flick a switch back on and find your form straight away and once again only time will be the judge of that.
Pavlich, Sandilands, Hill, Mundy and Hasleby are just five of the big names to return with the first two undoubtedly the most significant.
You would suspect Bower or Walker would get first crack at Pavlich if he plays forward, and maybe a Mitch Robinson could get a run with role if he plays through the middle.
The match promises to be entertaining with two highly attacking, fast and slick midfields who can struggle from time to time defensively.
But right at this point in time I think Carlton are travelling the better of the two sides, they are certainly the more settled and will relish the open space at Subiaco which is a ground they have played quite well on lately.
With Judd back on familiar soil I get the feeling he, Murphy, Gibbs, Carazzo, Simpson and the small forwards Garlett, Betts and more then likely Yarran will have too much class for a Dockers side who's season has gone pear shaped.
Freo took a risk, and in many ways I think it may work, as the boys should be fresher and sharper, and we need to remember this is a very good side when at their best.
But they haven't been at their best since about Round 12 and the Blues with the benefit of a little more experience will go a long way towards booking a home final.
Carlton by 15 points
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