Preview - Hawthorn vs Collingwood - Round 22

Hawthorn vs Collingwood - MCG- Saturday

Hawthorn - 7th - 11-9-1 - 111.07%
Collingwood - 1st - 17-3-1 - 144.49%

Saturday afternoon footy at the MCG will be the stage for another blockbuster clash this week with the desperate Hawks taking on the might of the rampaging Magpies.

For Hawthorn, it is in all likelihood a must win clash if they are to avoid a trip to Sydney or Perth in the first week of the finals whilst for Collingwood it is an opportunity to fend off a would be challenger, and fine tune their side for September.

Leigh Brown will miss the clash through suspension which has opened the door for Josh Fraser to play his long awaited 200th game.

It could also potentially be his last for the club as well, although if he played a blinder it would create an interesting dilemma for Mick Malthouse and his men.

Would they bring Leigh Brown straight back in if say Josh Fraser kicked four goals and had twenty five posessions?

Purely hypothetical, but would be an interesting conundrum just the same if it were to eventuate.

Paul Medhurst is also a potential inclusion with Allan Didak pulling up sore with a shoulder at training during the week, and a rest may be on the cards.

Last week the Magpies dodged a bullet against the Crows but in many ways the game had some positives.

Yes they again kicked poorly in front of goals, and Adelaide controlled the tempo of the game throughout, but despite that Collingwood still found a way to win, and it was simply through weight of numbers that they did so.

They kicked just six goals for the game, but generated so many chances and inside fifties that they eventually got over the top of them.

They will want to kick straighter, but few sides can stem the tide against them for long enough to get over the top.

Hawthorn with the exception of their Round 4 meeting this year have had the wood over the Pies with some thumping wins over them in recent seasons.

Franklin and Hodge have career best records against them and provided Hodge plays they will both draw a lot of attention.

For Hawthorn, last week was a difficult game to get a reading on. Yes Hawthorn were ruthless and slick, but they played less then a rabble with several big name Fremantle players out of the side.

However in saying that, you still have to get the job done and the likes of Rioli, Burgoyne, Ellis and co all found some ominous form.

Shaun Burgoyne in particular is such a smooth mover and too see him in full flight this close to September is a huge bonus.

If Hawthorn win, they need either Fremantle or Sydney to lose if they are to earn a home final in the first week.

If they lose they could play either Fremantle in Perth, Sydney in Sydney (the least prefered option) or Carlton at the MCG (probably the best option).

It has the potential to be a blockbuster no doubt, but there is a heck of a lot more on the line for the Hawks this week so you wonder what attitude Collingwood might take.

I would imagine they would go quite hard given you don't want to drop a game this close to September and they could meet the Hawks again in a couple of weeks if certain results go that way.

Lance Franklin will draw either Nathan Brown or Reid, but more then likely Brown given Reid probably won't return from injury.

Roughead would then get either O'Brien or Maxwell and this is an area Hawthorn could exploit.
With two first choice key backs unavailable, Hawthorn have the capabilities to stretch Collingwood with the two big guys up forward.

Rioli if he plays forward might get Toovey or Shaw, with the other likely to match up on Michael Osborne.

At the other end, Gilham should get Dawes and perhaps the exciting young Ben Stratton will play on Travis Cloke who is in dangerous form despite his kicking yips.

Dale Thomas in in career best form and is such an important player with his skill and smarts, and he could perhaps draw a lock down player.

Collingwood are the hardest team to tag with their heavy rotations but you simply must put some time into a couple of their midfield runners due to the number of options otherwise you will get overwhelmed.

This game will be a very tight affair, but with the exception of last week Collingwood have been absolutely outstanding.

Hawthorn will throw everything at them and will enter the game in solid form, but they just lack the defensive spread to counter all of Collingwood's options, and I could also see the Pies having a slight edge in midfield depth, maybe not class, but certainly the spread of options.

Expect a hard fought finals like affair, but in a possible pre-curser of things to come, Collingwood will take this one.

Collingwood by 8 points