Adelaide vs St.Kilda - Aami Stadium - Saturday
Adelaide - 12th - 8-13 - 92.64%
St.Kilda - 3rd - 15-5-1 - 124.38%
Adelaide and St.Kilda will lock horns at the unusual time of 3:40 on a Saturday in what looms as an intriguing Round 22 Clash.
For St.Kilda, week one of the finals is confirmed and they will meet the Cats the following Saturday in an enormous game.
For Adelaide a trying and fascinating season will end with the club farewelling up to four of their finest servants.
Premiership stars Andrew Mcleod, Simon Goodwin and Tyson Edwards have all given it away this season, as has high flying forward Brett Burton and the sad part is due to injury, none of them will be given a farewell game. (With the exception of Edwards back in the middle of the year.)
However their presence will no doubt give all their teammates a massive lift as they close the book on a proud era for this wonderful club.
On field, despite an enormous injury list, the Crows have been very solid since that horrendous start.
Since Round 6 they are 8-7 in terms of Win - Loss, and have recaptured that dogged tenacity that was one of the cornerstones of Neil Craig's coaching.
Last week was a typical example, coming off a difficult assignment on a hot day in Brisbane they ran the might of Collingwood all the way to the line.
In recent weeks they have also defeated Geelong, and pushed the Western Bulldogs hard so they can certainly win this game given they have nothing to lose and the Saints have plenty.
St.Kilda will no doubt have a crack, they always do under Ross, but they are safe in the top four and you must subconsciously have an eye on the first week in September no matter how hard you try to avoid it.
Mackay, Jaensch, Henderson, Davis and a host of others have improved this side this year, and they were keen to make a statement to Nathan Bock and the footy world that they were very much ok going forward without their former star.
Their defensive zone set up last week was fantastic and simply gave Collingwood no run out of defence and restricted the way they went forward.
The Crows have lost the Inside fifty count in each of their last five games against St.Kilda, and 14 times this season, they have also laid on average 10 fewer taclkes then their opponent in each game.
Stats that don't look flash against St.Kilda, however they have been the best side in the comp for marks inside fifty per number of entries this year, and if they are precise going in, the Saints can be vulnerable.
For St.Kilda last week was a very open affair and a good hit out for the boys in what was a surprisingly free flowing game given the nature of the Saints style and the fact they have strangled Richmond on each of the last two occasions they met.
With no Jones or Hayes in the middle they had lost a bit of grunt and that was evident with the Tigers doing well as per normal around the stoppages.
Jack Riewoldt was isolated one on one and given the quick ball movement, and his undeniable class meant he was always a handful for Sam Fisher firstly and then Jason Blake.
Kurt Tippett has had a couple of good days against St.Kilda over the journey so the Crows will no doubt be trying to maximise his space.
With Hayes, Jones, Gardiner and Dawson all available for selection this week, St.Kilda will essentially only have Steven Baker missing from their best 22, and the nuggety defender will return in the first final the following week.
St.Kilda ranked second for disposal efficiency this year meaning they are lethal on the turnover, but also excellent at controlling the tempo by keeping posession.
This is also evident by the fact they only let sides play on from 35% of the marks they take ranked first in the competition.
Adelaide will need to be smart and pro-active as this year they have struggled against the sides that specialise in stifling run.
For the Saints it's largely all about injury preservation but at the same time you cannot flirt with form and no-one wants to enter the finals on a loss.
With Bock missing as a potential match up for Riewoldt you would expect Davis might get a go at it, with Rutten taking the slower, yet building Justin Koschitzke.
Johncock might get Milne with Schneider probably the difficult match up given his outstanding form and ability to push into the middle.
Blake will get Tippett, with Fisher possibly lining up on Henderson. James Gwilt seems the logical man for Taylor Walker given the size and mobility of the two is similar.
Clinton Jones will do the tagging role most likely on Scott Thompson who has been a star this year.
On to the result, and whilst Adelaide are certainly finishing strongly it has been an emotional few weeks for an essentially young group missing a stack of players and whilst they will be keen to send off their retiring stars, there is also potential for a let down.
St.Kilda are a touch vulnerable given the timing, but are also such a dogged determined group and I think they will still come to play.
I could see St.Kilda putting too much pressure on the young Crows runners and controlling the stoppages with some bigger bodies.
Should be tight, and dour but the Saints to make it sweet 16 and gear up for the mighty Cats!
St.Kilda by 11 points
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