Fremantle vs Carlton - Subiaco - Friday Night
Fremantle 6th - 12-9 - 103.75%
Carlton 8th - 11-10 - 108.78%
Undeniably the rounds biggest clash will take place this friday night when Fremantle host Carlton for the right to host a final in the first week of September.
Both of these sides are coming off defeats from Round 21 and for whoever loses, the following week becomes an extremely difficult assignment.
Fremantle rested up to ten big names and the end result was an embarrassing hiding at the hands of Hawthorn in Tasmania.
For Carlton, it was a dissapointing yet not horrendous performance against Geelong, but I was surprised how satisfied most were with the result.
Carlton had beaten the Cats twice in succession, both easily and whilst it was always going to be difficult, I'm surprised so many were proud of what was ultimately a hefty defeat with much at stake.
Some of the signs out of the game were pleasing with Lachie Henderson showing plenty, Robbie Warnock working well, Mitch Robinson providing a lot of life and Jarrod Waite strong and steady in attack.
However defensively was where a lot of the issues were. Geelong scored far too easily going forward with Podsiadly leading the way in attack.
The Blues are a bit like Essendon in many ways in that the gap between their best and worst can be substantial.
The barometer for this form gap is generally defensive pressure, much like it is with the Bombers who are famous for their tendency to get sliced open.
Carlton ran and linked up well all night, but produced just three tackles in the first quarter and only fourteen up until half time.
In that second quarter when Geelong started to win the stoppages, that lack of pressure was a telling factor with the Cats kicking six goals to one in twenty minutes to open the contest up.
Carlton fought hard in the third term, but were always up against it from there.
This week I'd suspect they would select Hampson and drop Jacobs due to Hampson's greater mobility on the wider ground against the returning Sandilands.
Carlton generally enjoy the space at the ground and should enjoy the freedom that the bigger surface will offer them.
For the Dockers last week was either a tactical triumph or a massive fail. Only time will be the judge of that one.
Fremantle entered Round 21 knowing they needed to win one of their last two games if they were to earn a home final in the first week.
Mark Harvey identified that many of his key players were feeling the pinch at the end of a long season and decided to rest them all, and put his eggs into one basket and roll the dice on a Round 22 assault on Carlton.
You can certainly understand his thinking, whilst a coach would never conceed defeat, given form and fitness they were probably unlikely to beat Hawthorn, and when you consider it's a six hour trip to Tasmania, spanning two flights and they would then have faced a six day break for this week's clash, you can see the logic.
It's a risk, and a massive roll of the dice, but I can totally understand why Harvey went down that path.
Part of the risk is Fremantle could make 13 changes which can certainly have a destabilising effect on a group, we have seen this happen in the past and Brett Ratten certainly alluded to it in his mid week presser.
Ratten questioned whether it was possible to flick a switch back on and find your form straight away and once again only time will be the judge of that.
Pavlich, Sandilands, Hill, Mundy and Hasleby are just five of the big names to return with the first two undoubtedly the most significant.
You would suspect Bower or Walker would get first crack at Pavlich if he plays forward, and maybe a Mitch Robinson could get a run with role if he plays through the middle.
The match promises to be entertaining with two highly attacking, fast and slick midfields who can struggle from time to time defensively.
But right at this point in time I think Carlton are travelling the better of the two sides, they are certainly the more settled and will relish the open space at Subiaco which is a ground they have played quite well on lately.
With Judd back on familiar soil I get the feeling he, Murphy, Gibbs, Carazzo, Simpson and the small forwards Garlett, Betts and more then likely Yarran will have too much class for a Dockers side who's season has gone pear shaped.
Freo took a risk, and in many ways I think it may work, as the boys should be fresher and sharper, and we need to remember this is a very good side when at their best.
But they haven't been at their best since about Round 12 and the Blues with the benefit of a little more experience will go a long way towards booking a home final.
Carlton by 15 points
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