Westcoast vs North Melbourne - Subiaco - Sunday
Westcoast 16th - 4-16- 77.53%
North Melbourne 9th - 9-11 - 84.88%
By the time the ball bounces on Sunday afternoon North Melbourne will know if they can still compete in the finals. For the Westcoast Eagles, their fate was officially sealed last week in a narrow loss to Port Adelaide. They will now officially claim their first ever wooden spoon.
The Kangaroos sit six points out of the eight with two games to go. If the eighth placed Hawks defeat Fremantle as expected, then the make up of the finals is complete. But if they somehow get rolled, North Melbourne are a huge chance to sneek up and claim a surprise september berth against the expectations of most.
Regardless of what happens on saturday afternoon though the game is a significant one in that it marks the 300th game of one of the Kangaroos favourite sons.
Brent Harvey will chalk up the wonderful milestone away from home, but in true form he said it was more important that his club kept it's september hopes alive rather then he bask in any personal glory.
His achievements will not be lost on his teammates though who will be eager to deliver a victory on his big day.
North Melbourne are an honest side, and as easy one to assess. They will get smashed by the top four, be competitive against the next four, and then beat everybody else.
Everytime they lead at half time they win, everytime they trail at halftime they lose, they are a pretty straight forward sort of team.
It has been a year of progress and they will in all likelihood end the season with eleven wins.
If somehow Hawthorn lose, the Roos will play off for a spot in the eight in a Sunday twilight fixture, a game the AFL tucked away assuming it would be of little signficance in the final round.
An area of concern for North Melbourne has been forward line pressure. They laid just two tackles inside fifty last week, and on the big ground at Subiaco you need to keep the ball inside your attacking zone as long as possible as you can get slaughtered on the rebound in the open space.
North Melbourne conceeded 10 goals from turnovers last week, but the pressure they will face this week won't be at the same level as was dished up by the Saints.
Lachie Hansen's star continues to rise, and the underrated value of Aaron Edwards has been evident as well. He has kicked at least two goals in a game eight times from twelve matches this year which is an indication of his importance, not just in terms of providing an option but also applying consistent scoreboard pressure.
The Daniel Well's announcement will be a nice boost for all concerned at the club with speculation mounting that he would be heading either to westcoast or up north to the Suns franchise.
Scott Thompson got sucked in a couple of times last week and the one missing piece of the puzzle for him is to smarten up a touch. He defends well, keeps his opponent honest and niggles the hell out of you, but occasionally you can knock him off his game.
For the Eagles the last two weeks have been so close but yet so far with two narrow defeats both coming in the last forty seconds of the game.
Their form hasn't been horrendous, but their inability to maintain posession of the footy has hurt them badly. On too many occasions they give the ball up meekly and had control of the tempo in the last minute of both games only to lose the footy under little pressure.
Their disposal efficiency in the last month is 66% which ranks 15th and last week was their worst of the season, the Kangaroos are very efficient on the counter attack and very good in setting up scoring opportunities through the method they use going forward and they will hurt them.
Over that same period the Eagles have produced 34 direct turnovers of which 19 have resulted in goals.
Mark LeCras has been well held over the past fortnight whilst young Andrew Strjik's star keeps rising with a couple of solid games.
With Todd Goldstein out this week, Cox and Natanui will be hoping too take advantage in the ruck against Hamish McIntosh who has lost his partner in crime.
Westcoast have some pace through the middle of the ground that can exploit teams, but they need to attack through the corridor, particularly at Subiaco.
The Eagles have scored just 71% of their goals from the centre corridor this season which ranks last.
When you play on the biggest ground in the country every second week, you can't afford to be playing that way.
Scott Thompson could be an option for LeCras this week, with Grima on Kennedy, although maybe Brady Rawlings might play down back on the frenchman.
At the other end Edwards, Hansen, Warren and Thomas provide a degree of versatility I don't think the Eagles can contain.
They may be a five goal better side at home, but it won't be enough to stop the Roos giving Boomer Harvey a much deserved win for his 300th game.
It may be close, but like the last fortnight, more then likely it will be no cigar for Woosha's men who will then turn their attention to a season finale.........against Geelong.
North Melbourne by 16 poinys
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