Sydney vs Western Bulldogs - SCG - Saturday Night
Sydney-7th- 11-9 - 104.17%
Western Bulldogs -4th- 13-7- 129.51%
The chance for retribution will present itself to Rodney Eade's men this Saturday night when they face a Sydney side that has returned to it's trademark in the past fortnight.
That trademark has served them well for so many years under Paul Roos, and they will once again see September action in 2010.
This week though they face a Bulldogs side that was humiliated in no uncertain terms by the might of Geelong last week.
The Fremantle win last Saturday was a brave one for the Swans, who ventured to a place that generally is not a happy hunting ground and took down a side that had it's top four chances on the line.
Ben McGlynn is the signficant loss to come out of that game though with the gutsy small forward suffering a broken cheekbone that will sideline him until about the second week of september provided the Swans get there.
He has been a real barometer for them this year and they have struggled to get near their best form without him.
His ability to rack up 20 touches and two goals a game, as well as the forward pressure he applies makes him so important to their structure.
Daniel Hannebry probably secured himself the rising star award for this season with a sensational 38 posession game and he might even find himself tagged by Liam Picken this week.
Sydney's ability to retain posession is what makes them so strong. They have been more efficient then their opponents 15 times this season from 20 games and especially at the SCG they take control of the tempo of a game and are very difficult to beat.
Regardless of the financial ramifications, if Sydney host a final they need to move heaven and earth to get it at the SCG.
Part of the reason for this is their ability to control the stoppages. Sydney have won the contested posession count in all seven of their games at the SCG, they have also won the clearances and had a higher efficiency in every game at the venue this year.
With Mumford in the ruck and young Jack (who is the next Paul Kelly), Brett Kirk, Jude Bolton, Daniel Hannebry, Adam Goodes and co they just master the ball ups and boundary throw ins and also have the ability to restrict the room and time afforded to opposition sides.
The Bulldogs are one such side that thrives on space and run so the order of the day for the Swans will be to control those stops in play and essentially keep the ball off the Bulldogs as much as possible.
Sounds simple, but the Bulldogs have some fine stoppage players themselves, and they will be keen to atone for last week's howler against the Cats.
A 101 point loss is embarrassing whatever way you look at it and whilst it's fair to say the side was battling illness it doesn't excuse that sort of margin.
Just what effect the flu had on the boys from the kennel is impossible to measure, but it cannot account for that sort of discrepancy in every facet of the game.
Cooney, Hudson and a few others didn't play, and then Lake hurt a hip early in the game but Geelong had three or four of their best side at least not available as well through injury.
Last week the Bulldogs produced a staggering 29 clanger kicks, the most ever recorded at Etihad Stadium and also went around with a disposal efficiency of 56% the worst they have registered in three years.
In the past three weeks they have also been out tackled, averaging 15 less then their opponents in that time which could be due to the boys being a touch off the pace, or perhaps simply the work rate dropping away.
They have produced 12 less Inside fifties then the Swans on their last six visits to the SCG and have lost five of those matches along the way.
If any of those trends continue this week, they will lose again, but will they?
After a week like this the Bulldogs should be fired up, with Rodney Eade putting the acid on his players to respond with a bruising two hour session on Wednesday afternoon and he also forecast up to five changes when the sides are announced shortly.
Shaun Higgins will miss at least 2-3 with a calf injury but he is also battling a mystery illness that could end his season.
Cooney and Hudson will return, whilst Lake is 50/50 and Barry Hall is now battling the flu bug that plagued his teammates last week so all is not perfect by any means.
I would expect Grundy or Richards to take Hall if he plays, which he still should and it will be fascinating to see the response the premiership star gets on his first return to the SCG.
Jarrod Grant remains in good form, whilst Brad Johnson will survive in the team (as he should) and provide a headache as well.
Giansiracusa is in terrific form right now after a fairly indifferent season and could be the X factor. He will most likely draw Malceski or Kennelly for company.
At the other end Brian Lake's absence will hurt if he misses, but not as much as it would against some sides with the Swans not overly tall in attack.
The match up for Goodes as usual is the difficult one with perhaps Dale Morris to get him if he plays forward, and maybe Boyd head to head if he plays in the middle given his history as a tagger.
The Bulldogs have more class in the middle and this might be decisive given the Swans clearance strength this year.
If you win your fair share of ball against them you can break them down and the Bulldogs are more then capable of it.
We need remember the form of the Bulldogs prior to that Geelong belting had been super so that is probably more a reflection of their capabilities.
A lot of factors suggest Sydney should win this, but against the real top echelon sides they have been just a fraction off the pace and Mcglynn is a huge loss.
The Bulldogs are also stung badly by the events of last week and will be eager to make a statement ahead of a long and hopefully for their sake rewarding finals campaign.
There will not be a lot in this game at all, and it could go either way, but back the class and poise of the Dogs to send a reminder that they aren't done yet.
Bulldogs by 4 points
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