Port Adelaide vs Melbourne - Aami Stadium - Sunday
Port Adelaide - 12th - 8-12 - 78.58%
Melbourne -10th - 8-11-1 - 96.05%
In probably the most difficult game to assess of all the matches this round Melbourne venture to Aami Stadium to take on Port Adelaide.
Melbourne enter the clash having lost 14 straight games at Aami Stadium by an average of nine goals whilst Port Adelaide have won their past three matches at home.
On face value that would suggest Port Adelaide should get the chocolates, but pound for pound the Dees are a better side in most areas, the only issue is their ability to play well at a ground where almost none of their list would have experienced a win.
James McDonald plays his 250th and penultimate game for the Demons in something that will definitely give them a lift and despite their finals chances ending last week they still have much to play for.
Finishing the year in ninth with double figure wins would be a fantastic effort given where they have come from and would be a nice launching pad into 2010.
Last week was a terrific contest but ultimately it was probably experience and a touch more class that got Hawthorn over the line against the Dees, but the loss of Aaron Davey early in the game certainly didn't help their cause.
But as the game went on, it was the stoppage work that may have undone them. Hawthorn had 31 more contested posessions then Melbourne last week which was the Demons worst discrepancy this season.
They were also a bit sloppy coming out of defence with a kicking efficiency of just 76% in the back half which is an area they remain a bit vulnerable in.
Frawley, Bartram, Garland etc are all terrific defenders, but they can be a touch sloppy with their disposal. A lot of it relates to poise under pressure and I'm sure they'll be ok in time.
An area Melbourne have built their rise on this season has been pressure on the ball carrier.
They concede less marks inside fifty then anyone else, but also allow opponents to have a disposal efficiency of just 65% which ranks third in the competition.
The more they play in these games, the better they will get at it, and it's a loss that provides short term pain, but doesn't do the club any harm whatsoever.
For Port Adelaide, Matthew Primus has produced three consecutive Aami Stadium wins, with a horrendous defeat at Etihad thrown in the middle.
The result overall sits better then a pass and he remains favourite I would say for the job next year.
Save for a stinker in the next fortnight he would be in the box seat. Especially if Port win both of their games in the run home.
Last week wasn't pretty, but enthralling just the same, and it was essentially a battle of who would make the fewest mistakes.
After controlling the tempo for much of the night, Port Adelaide let the Eagles back in with four consecutive goals in the final term, only to pinch the win courtesy of a David Rodan point late in the contest.
Port Adelaide's problem is retaining posession of the ball. They have no problems winning it around the stoppages but over the past six weeks they have kept posession just 70% of the times they disposed of the footy which ranks last in the competition.
Melbourne are exceptional at slicing teams up on the rebound and are also terrific at pressuring the ball carrier so Port will need to be very careful.
Port Adelaide are also the competitions second lowest scoring side and are the least effective naturally when going forward as a result. Melbourne are very good at restricting sides when they go forward as they generally lose the inside fifty count, yet remain competitive.
Melbourne have won the inside fifties just twice in the past 16 weeks which is a remarkable stat, but it does highlight the style of game they play which is built largely on conservation and then counter attack.
I would expect Jay Schulz to be comfronted with James Frawley, and perhaps Westhoff to get Garland.
At the other end Chaplin will get Brad Green and Liam Jurrah might draw Carlisle or vice versa.
Melbourne are breaking down a few barriers at present and they will break down another one this sunday and win at their hoodoo ground.
Port boast solid wins in the last month over the Crows and Hawthorn (lets throw in westcoast for good measure), but Melbourne's style of footy poses difficulties to handle in regards to match ups and structure and if ever they are going to break through it will be this week against the plucky but unreliable power side.
Melbourne by 13 points
No comments:
Post a Comment