Essendon vs Brisbane - Etihad Stadium - Sunday
Essendon 13th - 7-13 - 81.09%
Brisbane 14th - 6-14 - 81.25%
Two of the seasons more dissapointing sides will lock horns at Etihad Stadium on Sunday in a clash of minimal significance in terms of ladder placings.
It is however a significant day for the one of the modern era's great players with Jonathan Brown set to line up in his 200th game.
The match is also important for the beseiged Matthew Knights who is under all sorts of pressure to keep his job for the 2011 season.
Essendon were atrocious last week against the red hot Magpies whilst the Lions had a dip against Adelaide, but ultimately fell short in a tight tussle.
This week the Lions will be straightened up by the return of their inspirational skipper and will give themselves something of a chance in this contest if they can provide the sort of run through the middle that they got for much of last week.
If you want an example of how much the Lions miss a fit and firing Jonathan Brown then the following stats will demonstrate.
The Lions score a goal from just 23% of their inside fifty entries this year, ranked last. They also score at an accuracy of 55%, ranked 14th and average just 6.5 goalkickers a game, ranked 13th.
Much is left to Brown who on one leg got them accross the line against the Eagles a fortnight ago.
He also has a terrific record against the Bombers at Etihad Stadium so if they can feed him some doesn't ball, he could play havoc with Essendon's vulnerable defence.
Pressure through the middle will be important for the Lions, as it is for everyone for that matter and this is an area that can improve.
They allow opposition sides to generate the second most disposals of any team in the competition and whilst their midfield is very attacking, it can certainly be opened up the other way.
Brennan, Power, Rischitelli and Black are capable on their day, with Clark and Leunberger in good form, and when you add Rockliff, Redden and young Harwood the Lions have a good mix of class, the lack of a genuine stopper, and a solid spread of inside midfielders has hurt them.
Injuries have played a big part this year for them, and you can tell their conditioning is an issue as the long season drags on with the Lions winning just two final quarters in the past few months.
For Essendon the last three weeks has been an example of their spasmodic nature with a wild fluctuation between their best and their worst.
They smashed the Saints three weeks ago and since then have been absolutely demolished by Carlton and Collingwood with Matthew Knights once again feeling the backlash from all and sundry.
Last week Essendon laid just 44 tackles and conceeded 85 points directly from turnovers.
This indicates that they were sloppy, but also didn't work hard enough defensively. It's one thing to be outgunned by an in form opponent, but you should be competitive and at least be able to fight your way through.
That was the most dissapointing factor for them on the night and it continues some alarming trends.
Essendon have conceeded 108 points a game since the start of 2008 which is the most of any side in the competition, and last week Collingwood took 17 marks inside fifty which is a combination of a vulnerable defence and a midfield that gets opened up.
They concede seven more inside fifties then they generate as well so perhaps evidence is mounting that they just aren't good enough.
Matthew Knights inherited a poor list, and has had a wretched run of injuries so I feel he deserves more time, but you'd be hoping some of these trends would start to be reversed and that doesn't seem to be happening.
In Essendon's favour this sunday is the fact they play at home against a team that doesn't appear to have the tools to exploit them.
Brisbane aren't applying enough pressure themselves, and are also sloppy going forward and as bad as Essendon can be, the Lions have been very poor for the best part of four months.
Michael Hurley should get first crack at Brown to further his development, whilst Mark McVeigh might get the dangerous Banfield.
At the other end Merrett will get Neagle, with Patfull to play on Monfries. McGrath would be the second option.
Daniel Rich might run with Stanton through the middle as Stanton is still highly vulnerable to the tag.
In a game that is a nervous one for tipsters I think Essendon will release the pressure valve this sunday with a solid home victory against the dissapointing Lions.
It might not be pretty, and an upset is possible, but Matthew Knights will sleep a little easier next week after his boys get the job done.
Essendon by 24 points
No comments:
Post a Comment