Geelong vs Carlton - Etihad Stadium - Friday Night
Geelong 2nd - 15-5 - 146.95%
Carlton 6th - 11-9 - 111.76%
Friday night football will play host to another mouth watering contest between the champs in Geelong, and the rejuvenated young Blues.
For Carlton this presents another challenge against a top side, and for the Cats it's the chance to turn the tables on a team that has had a rare stranglehold on them with the Blues winning the past two meetings of these two sides.
The last fortnight has been a real coaching triumph for Brett Ratten who made the tough calls and is being rewarded for it.
He made no secret of his dissapointment after the Collingwood game with accusations of blokes not putting their head over the ball and he responded by dropping four players.
The blokes he brought in had a real crack, competed hard and got the results. The Blues won by 76 points and responded in the best possible way.
Two of the players dropped were Andrew Walker and Brad Fisher and they played absolute blinders in the VFL with one getting 47 touches and the other kicking ten goals and it posed a selection dilemma for the Carlton coaching staff.
Ratten decided however to stick to his guns, and made no change to the side that demolished Essendon and the end response was an 89 point win over the Tigers.
Ratten made tough calls each week and it has paid off, but more importantly his players responded.
Marc Murphy has had a ripping fortnight after a poor year, Judd is flying as usual, but Grigg, Robinson, Henderson, Hadley and Bower have all added some significant improvement to the side in the last few weeks and this has helped take them forward.
You see how well that forward line can function when the midfield gets on top and provides good supply.
They didn't work hard enough for several weeks but when they are on, they have a midfield that borders on elite.
They remain suscpetible to pressure, and Essendon and Richmond provided next to none, so this week will be a nice challenge.
The forward line is small so when the midfield is pressured into pumping it in their long they can be susceptible, and Geelong are the best in the business at dealing with the long ball inside fifty.
Carlton tore Geelong apart with their pace back in Round 5, and it was the amount of goals from midfielders pushing forward, and their quality smalls that undid Geelong and they must beat them the same way.
That is easier said then done though as the Cats issued one heck of a statement last week.
A 101 point win over another top four side is a fairly significant message to the competition that this team is very much still at the top of it's game and capable of pushing for a fourth consecutive grand final.
The loss to Collingwood shook them up a bit, and with certain people, namely Tim Lane, questioning their future they were always going to be breathing fire.
The Bulldogs no doubt felt the pinch, with several players ill but this is an impossible variable to measure in terms of it's total effect, but one thing we can say is, it does not work out to 101 points!
Corey Enright played with the most freedom he has in several weeks, Andrew Mackie marshalled the defence superbly, Tom Hawkins found some touch in the ruck and the big J-Pod played a very good game against quality opposition away from Skilled Stadium which was very pleasing.
In the space of 40 minutes, Geelong had 74 more disposals, 14 more inside fifties, 11 more clearances and kicked 13.4.82 to 0.1.1. That is a total route and demonstration that when on song, Geelong remain the most devastating team in the league.
Daniel Menzel and Jeremy Laidler showed a bit as well as young players coming into the side so that is a good sign for the Cats future.
Cameron Ling, Joel Corey, Harry Taylor and Tom Lonergan should be back in the mix for selection this week which presents interesting dilemmas for Mark Thompson and his men.
Some, in particular Robert Walls have questioned whether Cameron Ling is in their best 22 anymore, but he clearly is, particularly in September.
One of Collingwood's shortcomings in last years finals campaign was the lack of a shutdown player in the middle.
The Cats had Ling, the Saints had Jones and the Bulldogs had Picken but the Pies didn't have someone capable of putting the brakes on one of the opposition's prime movers.
Geelong need Cameron Ling for his experience, his toughness and also his ability to tag Pendlebury, Dal Santo, Boyd, Hodge etc if required in finals.
It is very difficult to win finals if you don't at least do a lockdown job on someone and Ling is an absolute certainty to play.
I would expect Scarlett to get Waite, Harry Taylor to go with Henderson, Lonergan to be left out due to match ups ( the cats went in too tall last time these sides met), and some homework to be put into the trio of Betts, Yarran and Garlett with Mackie, Enright, Hunt and co to get the job on these boys and try to hurt them as always going the other way.
At the other end, Jamison will get J-Pod with the more mobile Bower likely to get Mooney.
Joseph should tag Ablett as he has done reasonably well in the past whilst Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson, Grigg and Scotland going head to head with Ablett, Chapman, Selwood, Corey, Bartel and Kelly in the middle.
As good as the Blues are, the Cats still hold a key edge here not just offensively, but with the ability to be accountable going the other way.
Geelong have a greater propensity to break down Carlton's fast running game then the Blues do conversely for the Cats.
One thing the last two losses to the Blues have had in common has been the MCG. The Blues were able to use the space inside fifty to expose the Cats defence once hitting up on the rebound.
This game is at Etihad Stadium a venue at which Geelong are probably the best side we have ever seen.
In the past three years the Cats have averaged 128 points a game, and produced an average winning margin of 66 points.
They have a great record everywhere, but that is a phenomenal stat for the Cats at the indoor surface.
Right now they have a bit too much class for an improved Carlton side who are safe in the eight, but could finish as high as fifth if results go their way.
But a win over the Cats will not be forthcoming for Brett Ratten's men on friday night. They have the class to make this close, but Geelong could well be a sleeping giant that has just awoken and their depth of talent in all areas remains a cut above the boys from Visy Park, and win number 16 will be forthcoming on a season that still promises to further write this team's name in history.
Geelong by 32 points
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