Preview - Hawthorn vs Fremantle -Round 21

Hawthorn vs Fremantle - Aurora Stadium - Saturday

Hawthorn 8th - 10-9-1 - 104.55%
Fremantle 5th - 12-8 - 110.36%

Chilly Tasmania will play host to a crucial clash on saturday afternoon between a couple of finalists that could shape the make up of games in the first week.

Hawthorn are 95% accross the line to play finals and a win this saturday will lock that away completely whilst Fremantle are stuttering badly in the run home, losing another game at Subiaco last week, this time to the desperate Swans.

For Fremantle, they need to fight hard to hold on to their home final. They still also have a statistical chance of finishing top four so the motivation will be strong.

If Fremantle lose their last two, they could drop as low as 8th and have to travel to Victoria in the first week of the finals, an assignment which would spell disaster given their current form.

If they can pinch just one win in the last fortnight they will play Carlton, Sydney or Hawthorn in the first week of the finals at Subiaco.

The problem for Fremantle is that they have so many players out of the side at present and have also hit the wall in regards to their young players momentum.

Last week was a tough hard fought contest against Sydney, a game that could have gone either way and Freo were far from terrible but missed a real chance to put pressure on the Bulldogs in fourth.

This week they travel to a venue they won at in controversial circumstances in 2006, and this is their first visit to Tasmania since that famous day.

Fremantle's prospects on the road are slim given recent form, with their average losing margin in the past three away games being 52 points.

Their home form has dropped away as well, but some early season progress made on the road has fallen away badly in recent weeks.

Some of the major concerns have been that they are unable to hault opposition momentum.

In the past five weeks, Fremantle have conceeded an average of 407 disposals a game, the most of any side, with a staggering 69% of them uncontested.

Some of the young exciting names in the midfield will have very bright futures, and to that end, Fremantle can't be shattered with the fall away, but right now they have hit a road block on their season.

They are also being stifled with their run and forced to overuse the ball in tight rather then playing their hard running, long kicking game. They have gone from 6th in the comp for long kicks per game, to 15th, but the large aurora ground combined with Hawthorn's lack of blistering leg speed means they will have a bit more freedom.

For the Hawks, last week was a virtual elimination final and they produced a gutsy win over the plucky young demons to exercise some of the pain from last year's loss to Essendon in a near identical game.

When push came to shove, they had more class and experience and produced an impressive last term to pull away and all but secure a place in September.

They have Collingwood in the last game though, so a loss to Fremantle would put them in serious danger with the Kangaroos still in the mix if they can win both their games from here.

Hawthorn's win last week arrested an alarming trend with the Hawks belted in contested posessions over the previous fortnight.

In fact last week was their best contested ball differential in a game this season which is a key area ahead of September.

They also smacked Melbourne in the Inside fifites, and defensively held up well against an effective forward combination that had been in good form.

Over the past five weeks, Hawthorn have conceeded the least disposals in the competition but have allowed teams to play at a very high efficiency which indicates their pressure skills have dropped away.

That hints what I thought was the case last week in that they were a little tired after 3 months of high intensity footy.

In the past four weeks, Hawthorn have retained posession from 71% of posessions which ranks 14th, but they face a Fremantle side that has been pretty loose over recent weeks and they should enjoy a bit more freedom.

Tasmania has been a happy hunting ground for the Hawks, particularly against non victorian sides and they have lost just twice to "interstate sides" in the years they have been down there.

That won't change this week with the Hawks boasting a forward line that is too potent for the undermanned fremantle defence, a midfield with far too much clearance power and class and a defence that should be able to contain the Dockers.

With Aaron Sandilands likely to miss again, Fremantle will not carry a ruck supremacy into the game and will need Tarrant or Mayne to return to help straighten them up, with both unlikely.

Stratton should get first crack at Pavlich, whilst Schoenmakers will get Bradley if he goes forward.

Fremantle will probably put Grover on Franklin, with McPharlin likely to get Roughead. Cyril Rioli will return for the Hawks as the X Factor and his class will be a vital inclusion.

Hawthorn will secure a place in the eight on saturday afternoon with a solid win over the classy yet tired Dockers.

Hawthorn by 28 points