Western Bulldogs vs Sydney - MCG -Saturday Night
Last week: Western Bulldogs lost to Collngwood by 62 points 8.14.62 to 17.22.124
Sydney defeated Carlton by five points 14.15.99 to 13.16.94
The curtain will come down on the career of one of the modern era's finest players regardless of the outcome this Saturday night in what is a fascinating semi-final clash.
The in form Swans venture to Melbourne to face the talented yet stumbling Bulldogs for a place in a preliminary final against the Saints.
Either Brad Johnson or Brett Kirk will bid farewell to the game on Saturday night depending on the result so emotions will no doubt be at a high.
The Brett Kirk departure is something we have known about for a while, whilst Brad Johsnon made the seemingly inevitable decision earlier this week after a year in which it has been apparent his body is failing him.
Johnson has been one of the game's most brilliant and durable players but he is evidence of just how quickly the end can come for a player, and it is a timely reminder to his teammates about how important it is to take every opportunity that is presented to you during your career.
The Bulldogs have one last chance to win a flag for their wonderful skipper and that will no doubt be in the back of every player's mind this week and potentially over the next couple.
I think it was evident in their opponents last week. Sydney were in all sorts of trouble early in the last term against Carlton but simply refused to get beaten and willed themselves over the line.
Admittedly they had some good fortune as well, with the Blues squandering three or four massive chances when they had the game at their mercy but Sydney were still able to turn the tide in the middle and start to win the majority of stoppages around the ground in the closing fifteen minutes.
The Bulldogs need to take note of how Sydney won that game. It was through stoppage control and contested ball, an area the Bulldogs usually excel at, but not right at the moment.
From Rounds 1-19, the Bulldogs were the best contested ball team in the competition, beating their opponents by an average of 12 every game. In the four matches since, they have lost this stat by an average of 21 a game, ranked last.
The Bulldogs are also the game's number one clearance team this season but come up against a Swans side that conceeds less direct clearances then anybody else so the contrasting styles will be evident.
Sydney got hold of the Bulldogs a few weeks ago in a big way, but the Doggies had won the previous four matches between these teams and they'd be wise to check out the earlier meeting this year in Canberra.
An example of that is the previous mentioned contested ball stats. In Round 8, the Bulldogs won this stat by 24, the worst record by the Swans in a game this season. In Round 21, the Swans won it by 28, the best record in a game this season.
The Bulldogs pace and running capacity has often hurt the Swans and they need to go back to doing the things they do well, including contested ball.
All sorts of questions remain such as can they do it with some key players out? Overall do they have enough spark to take them on, and can they break the Sydney stranglehold?
My mind has gone either way on all of these and it promises to be such an intriguing game.
Shaun Higgins will miss the remainder of what has been a frustrating season as he battles a thyroid problem, whilst Adam Cooney remains sidelined for the season.
Dale Morris is believed to be an outside chance to play in the Preliminary Final if the Bulldogs progress which would be good news for the group, and young Andrew Hooper will become the first debutant in a final since Paul Spargo in 1985.
He should provide some pace and flair in the front half of the ground and also an unknown x factor for the swans coaching staff to consider.
For Sydney veteran Daniel Bradshaw and the gutsy Ben McGlynn will return to the side giving them an injection of aggression and experience.
McGlynn has been superb this season and has in many ways been a barometer for them, whilst Bradshaw started the season so well prior to injury but provides them with a real target in attack to help straighten them up.
Keiran Jack, Hannebry, McVeigh, Goodes, Bolton and Kirk all provide clearance strength and then the outside runners off half back Malceski, Shaw and Kennelly provide the class and flair for the Swans to help give them the right mix to be dangerous against any side.
Last week they were in trouble when the Blues moved the ball quickly. Their defence has been solid, but without Bolton and Roberts Thompson can be stretched when the ball is moved long and direct, but they aren't alone on that front.
The Bulldogs have the weaponry to make life difficult for them here as well, but Sydney are close to the best nullifiers in the comp in terms of restricting run, clearances and clean disposal.
On the bigger grounds though it is harder to do, and they have lost all three matches at the MCG this year (although two by less then a goal).
The key for the Bulldogs is to open it up and run, the key for the Swans is to generate stoppages and slow the tempo down, get it on their terms more to the point.
This is a genuine flip of the coin game. Two sides with contrasting styles, with plenty of motivation and the lure of a preliminary final.
History says the Bulldogs, as only one top four side has gone out in straight sets since the revised top four format in the year 2000 (eagles in 07), but like the Eagles that season, the Bulldogs are nursing some injuries and are facing a team in form at the right time.
Pound for pound, the Bulldogs are more skillful, have more firepower and accross the board are better.
But this Swans team is playing as well as they have all year, and are just so disciplined and determined it's hard to pick against them.
But like the Pies last year, and the Bulldogs in recent times they will find another leg and drag themselves over the line this week in a close, tense game of footy.
Another preliminary final awaits the winner, and for some reason, I'm going Doggies just.
Bulldogs by 2 points
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