Collingwood vs Geelong - MCG- Friday Night
Last week: Collingwood - Week Off
Geelong - defeated Fremantle by 69 points 20.15.135 to 10.6.66
Well here we are! Crunch time in season 2010 for the competitions pace setters and the current reigning premiers.
For the third time in four years Geelong and Collingwood will meet in a Preliminary Final to earn the right at a shot at the ultimate glory.
The Cats have won the previous two meetings in september but the sides will meet under different circumstances this week.
Collingwood had the benefit of a week off whilst Geelong found themselves in unfamiliar territory with a cut throat final against Fremantle in the second week of September.
Predictably they took care of that game with a minimun of fuss and were able to run a few blokes into some form.
Joel Selwood and Brad Ottens benefited a lot from the extra run, and the Cats would have been pleased with how quickly they put the game to bed.
An eight goal first quarter took all the confidence out of the visiting team and the game was shot by the end of that first term.
Geelong had some scratchy moments from then on but in finals it's not about looking a million dollars, it's not about percentage or ladder positions, it is simply about progressing.
The Cats needed to beat Fremantle, and get into a Preliminary Final against the Pies without any fresh injuries and on that front it was mission accomplished so on we go to Friday night.
Podsiadly and Chapman did pick up niggles it's fair to say, but both are all clear and Geelong as a result had some interesting selection decisions to be made with the end result being no change.
Most of us expected Andrew Mackie to play, but the form of Harry Taylor is believed to be the reason that hasn't happened.
Geelong it has been said feel they need Tom Lonergan as a defensive re-inforcement if Harry Taylor is beaten by Travis Cloke, so as a result Mackie gets squeezed out.
Mark Blake was also in the mix to replace Hawkins if the side wanted to go with two specialist ruckmen as opposed to Hawkins as the second pinch hitting man.
Geelong are a high posession, efficient team but like everyone, consistent patterns emerge in their losses.
The Cats average 100 more posessions then their opponents when they win games this season, but when they have lost they averaged just nine more.
If you stifle their run, they are forced to find different avenues forward which takes them out of their comfort zone.
They are also the most efficient team in the comp once inside fifty, averaging a score from 55% of forward entries, and a goal from 31%.
They average on the whole 55 inside fifties a game, but when they met Collingwood a few weeks ago they had just 37.
Collingwood's pressure on the ball carrier broke them down consistently accross half back and through the middle.
It is easier said then done though against this super Cats team, but the Pies know they now have the blue print.
For Collingwood, last week was about ironing out injury niggles, and sorting out the best 22 going forward for what they hope is a productive fortnight.
Two weeks ago they demolished the Bulldogs in a trademark Collingwood 2010 performance.
They were relentless with their pressure on the ball carrier particulary on the Bulldogs runners coming out of defence and were able to generate four or five scoring opportunities from the same forward thrust on consistent occasions.
They also restricted the Doggies to a disposal efficiency of 48% which is the second lowest ever recorded in the history of Champion Data.
Sharrod Wellingham's ankle was the concern to come out of that game, as well as perhaps Leon Davis's form but both will play this week.
Davis has been solid with his frontal pressure and has been contributing in other ways. He may not be hitting the scoreboard as much as he once did, but that's not what it is all about.
Wellingham provides another important midfield rotation so his fitness was a vital boost.
Simon Prestigiacomo however might end up being this year's Max Hughton with the veteran defender missing out to Nathan Brown at the selection table.
With Goldsack, Lockyer, Medhurst and a host of others available but not selected it is no surprise the Pies have been so dominant this season.
As mentioned above, the ability to tie the ball in the front half of the ground has been one of the cornerstones of Collingwood's rise this year.
They have averaged 44 points a game from turnovers in the front half of the ground which is 11 more then any other side this year, and the Cats will need to be clean if they are to punch through.
Collingwood average more inside fifties and more effective long kicks then any other team so the key for the Cats is to pressure the ball carrier, make them use the ball short and by hand, and if you do that you will restrict the entries and perhaps take them out of their own comfort zone.
Scarlett should take Dawes, with Taylor getting first crack on Cloke. Lonergan might get Brown when he pushes forward with the out of form Josh Hunt playing on Davis.
At the other end, Brown will take Mooney, Hawkins going forward will get Reid, Toovey will get Johnson I reckon and the match up on the small runners in attack is crucial.
Ling I think should tag Didak who is the real game breaker in the middle of the ground.
Aside from that I think Geelong are best served trying to turn it into a midfield shoot out, something they may fancy their chances with.
On to the tip, and I think the subtle benefits sit with the Pies in what is a very even contest.
Geelong are a magical team, but when these sides have met previously in September the Cats have been a clear cut above the Pies, have had the week off and a settled line up.
This time the Pies have been every bit as good, they have the week off, and they have less selection headaches.
Geelong have had to do it the hard way, and would have had some serious questions in regards to the make up of the best 22.
I also back the pressure sides in finals, and Hawthorn of 08, and the present day St.Kilda and Collingwood sides have been the best in recent times at pressuring the opposition. All three of those teams have given the Cats grief of late.
Collingwood have the blue print, they have the confidence the form and the right personnel to take this one.
And come 10:30 friday night, they will have a berth in a Grand Final as well.
Collingwood by 10 points
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