Hawthorn vs Melbourne - MCG - Sunday
Hawthorn - 8th - 9-9-1 - 103.49%
Melbourne - 10th - 8-10-1 - 97.09%
The MCG will host a virtual elimination final on Sunday afternoon when the Hawks take on the rapidly improving young Demons.
For Melbourne, another week saw more improvement and another four points against the plucky Tigers.
The game was tight for three quarters, and given Melbourne had played on a humid night at the Gabba a week earlier, many were backing Richmond to finish the stronger.
But it was the young Demons who kicked six goals to two in the last quarter to run away with the game.
Liam Jurrah played his best game for the season, possibly for the club with four goals from eight shots, Jack Watts played a good second half whilst Wonaemirri, Green and Dunn all played well.
Melbourne's forward line is extremely under regarded at present. They had just 47 inside fifties last week for 16 goals which is a great conversion.
In fact accross the season they are averaging just 43 inside fifties a game, ranked last in the league but in the past seven weeks they are the 5th highest scoring team going around.
The Dees are a very efficient side, they have the highest kick to handball ratio in the league, the best conversion rate whilst inside fifty, and they take more uncontested marks inside the arc then anyone else.
They spread from contests well and push into space and back themselves by foot. The likes of Scully, Sylvia, Jones, Bruce and Davey are all in top form and the rapid maturing of this team is something quite special.
They have some work to do no doubt, and there is a long way to go, but the spectre of finals is something that must excite all Demons fans given the pain of the past four years.
They probably cannot make the eight unless they win all three of their remaining games though which means they cannot miss a beat.
For the Hawks, the past fortnight has been horrendous given the progress made since Round 7, and thoughts have shifted from winning a flag to just making the eight, something which is by no means assured.
Melbourne and the Kangaroos sit below them on the table but both are in good form, have reasonable draws (don't face Collingwood like the Hawks) and have lifted with the scent of September action.
The problem for Hawthorn seems to be that they have hit a wall after several weeks of high intensity.
The issue was their start, when you give yourselves so much work to do just to get your season back on an even kiel it means you have to play every week at high intensity, every week is must win and it is impossible to sustain that over a 13-17 week period.
They did wonderfully well to get back into the season but the Saints draw seems to have knocked the stuffing out of them.
They now must win the next two games starting Sunday to put themselves back in the finals mix where, whilst they cannot win the flag, they could still cause some grief due to their experience.
An example of a tiring side is their ability to break clear into space, and in the past five weeks Hawthorn are ranked last for uncontested posessions.
Around the stoppages they have been very good, with a number of big bodies, but accross the board they lack a bit of leg speed which does expose them when they are bit off the boil.
Defensively the Hawks are still vulnerable, but the rolling zone they used so well in 2008 has been quite effective this year too. They allow sides just 42 forward entries a game, which is second only to St.Kilda this season.
Melbourne's forward line is unpredictable and can pose problems though so they will need to be sharp.
Campbell Brown should get Jurrah, Stratton will take Dunn, Gilham on Green, Guerra on Wonaemirri are some of the other possible match ups.
The rapidly emerging James Frawley should get Franklin, with Matthew Warnock a chance to return and play on Roughead.
Cyril Rioli's pace will be missed again, but Brown's return should provide some hardness.
Melbourne are better in space, Hawthorn are better in close.
Both have potent forward lines, that test you in different ways, and Melbourne should hold an edge in the ruck with Jamar.
Momentum is a significant thing in football and the young dees have it at the moment.
Hawthorn are showing some concerning signs that perhaps they have hit a bit of a roadblock and for that reason I think the Dees might get the job done in this one.
With their midfield runners all up and about and using the ball with confidence, their forward line causing problems and the competitions in form defender James Frawley I think Melbourne have enough to win this.
The pressure of such a big game, and the lure of finals pose a challenge for them though. Never has this group been in such a position and it will be interesting to see how they handle it.
I think they'll be just fine and the excitement levels will intensify around these young Demons come Sunday night.
Melbourne by 10 points
No comments:
Post a Comment