Essendon 12th - 7-11 - 87.19%
Carlton 7th - 9-9 - 102.64%
Crunch time awaits the Blues this Friday night as they face another old foe under lights at the MCG.
This week's clash with Essendon is make or break for the Blues who have lost five of their past seven and have copped it from all angles after their meek capitulation to Collingwood last week.
The final margin was 48 points, but that was flattering for them there is no doubt about it.
From the seven minute of the first quarter, until the 21 minute mark of the third, Carlton had one scoring shot.
That is one legitimate scoring shot in 71 minutes of football. Now yes they were playing the rampaging Magpies but that is an embarrassing stat for a side in contention for finals.
If they lose this game, they are highly unlikely to figure in september and when you consider they were 7-4 at the half way mark and eyeing a top four berth you can understand why Brett Ratten had some stern words to his boys after the game.
Terry Wallace labelled Carlton's midfielders as a group of downhill skiers late last season and it's hard to argue with that assesment right now.
Chris Judd does it all and he cannot be questioned, but Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson, Scotland etc all look good when the Blues are running in waves, but apply some solid pressure on them, and launch attacks the other way, and they go missing far too often.
They need to fight and compete and defend. That means chasing back defensively as hard as you would when your own sides wins posession.
It sounds harsh but not enough of them are prepared to do that when it really matters.
Carlton have a very talented line up, and are the most capable of all the sides 7-11 on the table of doing damage in September.
They have slaughtered St.Kilda and Geelong this year, and have three wins interstate.
So at their best they are fantastic, but that small/mobile forward line has been cramped up over the last couple of months.
O'Hailpin has lost form, Henderson will be very good but is only 20 years of age and needs time and it's hard to expect Garlett, Yarran and Betts as three smalls to maintain the rage all season as good as they have been.
This is why I think they need to decide where they want Jarrod Waite to play and just settle him into that spot.
For mine, that needs to be accross half forward. He has strong hands, holds his position well in a contest, is a neat kick and has plenty of experience.
Yes from time to time, match up's might force him into defence every four or five weeks but on the whole he needs to play forward as that's where they need him most.
For the Bombers, the lingering flicker of light that is a September berth hovers on the horizon once more.
It is highly unlikely they will get there but you never know, this side can look pretty good when they play with confidence and they certainly did that last week.
St.Kilda is fast becoming their bunny but you still have to play well and the Bombers put in their most complete performance since a victory over the Bulldogs in Round 10.
The return of Monfries, Hille and Fletcher has been very important for them and it helps them structure up to maximum affect.
Gumbleton's injury is a blow and might force Hurley to return to the front half after the gun youngster played his best game to date at centre half back last week.
Winderlich should return to help bolster the midfield stocks that have already been given a lift by the inclusion of Houli (surprise surprise), young Colyer and Brent Prismall.
Defensively is where they would have been most pleased last week. Hocking and McVeigh were excellent as well as Fletcher, Hooker and Hurley.
It has been their achilles heel for probably three years so they would have been delighted with that form.
The problem for the Bombers has been consistency, and much like Carlton they have had real problems containing opposition momentum.
Both of these sides are very good offensively, but can be exposed going the other way, and whilst Essendon were super last week, they have been vulnerable over the past two to three months through a lack of defensive pressure through the middle.
Chris Judd should play and his presence might ultimately be the deciding factor if Carlton are to overcome a horror run against their much hated rivals with Essendon having won the past six.
Expect a fired up Carlton this week, they have been attacked by all and sundry over the last few days, with past players, supporters and even Brett Ratten delivering some scathing assesments of recent performances and it's natural that a team comes out breathing fire after such a thing.
For Essendon, like everyone, you hate playing a team with it's backs to the wall but they have plenty of motivation of their own. A chance to potentially end the season of a rival and to build momentum yourself towards 2011 should be big factors for the Bombers.
In the middle, the Blues might throw Richard Hadley a lifeline. He has had numerous chances but was in the best again last week for the Bullants and Carlton had planned for either Hadley or Mclean to play the enforcer/protector role in the middle of the ground but that hasn't worked out.
One thing Hadley will do though is compete and they should give him a crack.
He may get a negating job on Jobe Watson or Brent Stanton, and Grigg also might be used as a stopper.
Andrew Welsh will come into calculations for Essendon to take Judd or Murphy but expect a fairly entertaining battle accross the board in the engine room.
Fletcher and Hooker should get Henderson and Waite in attack (if he plays there), and Hurley should get released forward.
McVeigh will get Betts and Hocking should get Yarran.
Bower will take Hurley if he goes forward, and Jamison should get the slower Neagle.
Walker will be a good match up for Monfries as the lively Bomber was a real threat last week.
This is the first of a host of difficult games to tip this week as both sides have been a real enigma over the season.
Carlton have so much on the line though and after a week in the spotlight they should edge out Essendon in a ripper contest.
If you line then up side by side Carlton just look a little bit more polished and if they can find some space which the Bombers can provide you from time to time, they should get enough quality ball forward to produce the goods.
Carlton by 6 points
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