Fremantle vs Westcoast - Subiaco - Sunday
Westcoast 16th - 4-13- 78.40%
Fremantle 5th - 11-6 - 111.62%
Derby number 32 will be full of the usual intrigue this Sunday when Fremantle and Westcoast lock horns at Subiaco.
Last week Westcoast missed a golden opportunity to drag themselves off the bottom of the ladder when they led Carlton by more then four goals at half time.
But like so many times before this season, they were found wanting after the long break and remain anchored on just 16 points at the foot of the table.
For Fremantle, there would have been a few concerns over the preceeding three weeks leading up to the Bulldogs game.
Those concerns were well and truelly intensified when they succumbed to the tune of 82 points at Etihad Stadium and dropped out of the top four for the first time in ten weeks.
Admittedly six or seven of the side's best 22 were unavailable, but the concerning past was they looked tired.
Young sides often can hit a bit of a roadblock at this stage of the season and it does look like that has happened to the purple army.
Their intensity, gut running, accountability etc has fallen away, offensive and defensive pressure too.
A damning stat is Fremantle have lost the uncontested posession count in each of their last five games, dating back to the split round by an average of 54.
Last week they conceded 302 uncontested posessions to the Bulldogs. The most they have conceded since late 2008.
This indicates they aren't running as hard to cover space, and they aren't pressuring opposition sides to the level they are normally accustomed too.
They also conceded 29 points from turnovers last week, their second worst in a game this season so their skills have dropped away too.
Guys like Hill, Duffield, Ibbotson etc aren't having the same impact, and with Barlow gone, Fyfe, Hasleby etc battling injury niggles it is no surprise they have dropped off.
However whilst the early part of this report would suggest doom and gloom, Fremantle still sit 5th, only percentage out of the four, and with a difficult yet not horrendous run home.
Top four is not out of the question, and at the very least they should host a final in the first week both of which would be good results for this club given where they came from last year. Fantastic even!
David Mundy returns this week, and he has been excellent. Sadly it comes at the expense of Rhys Palmer, so the midfield group is unable to settle.
Tarrant and Bradley return to add Key position strength and tigthen up that defence.
Expect Hayden or Tarrant who is deceptively quick to get Le Cras. Probably Hayden I would think.
Grover should get Kennedy with McPharlin likely to take Lynch if he starts forward.
In the middle Suban might get a role running with Priddis who is still the main clearance man for the Eagles.
Westcoast lose the experience of Selwood to a shoulder injury, and also the youthful excitement of Ashton Hams who will miss a month after a crude hit on Dennis Armfield last week.
An extended bench has been named, but given the running strength of Freo (at their best), I would expect Swift and Jones to be the two who play.
The Eagles were very good for half of last weeks game, but as is so often the case they fell away. It was particularly dissapointing given they had a great win on the road the previous week, and had jumped to a 26 point half time lead on home soil.
To lose convincingly from there is a clear indication that the Eagles are at best bottom four, and a more then worthy wooden spoon winner if it goes that way.
Whilst we have spoken about Fremantle's outside freeze in recent weeks, they are still one of the more improved stoppage teams in the comp.
Westcoast conversely have lost the contested posession count in all bar three games this season, they have also conceeded more points then anyone else bar Essendon, 105 a game on average to be exact, and Fremantle still have a lot of fire power in the front half.
Brown or Mackenzie will have the tough job of manning Pavlich in attack and depending on how high up the ground he goes, they might sacrifice height for running power and strength and hence Shannon Hurn might get the job.
Mundy will be tagged, but it's a question of who is capable of doing the lock down role.
Perhaps Waters might get a crack at it, or they will back themselves head to head through Masten, Ebert, Embley, Priddis and co.
Never write off the underdog in a derby, and for that end Westcoast are a chance.
They pushed Fremantle hard when they met earlier this year, and it was only the way they butchered the ball going forward that cost them that game.
The problem is for the Eagles that is an all too familiar story.
Fremantle aren't firing on all cylinders by any means, but amidst all the apparent questions one thing we do know is they are still a far better side then their cross town neighbours.
And try as they might, the Eagles won't get them Sunday
Fremantle by 17 points
No comments:
Post a Comment