Brisbane vs Melbourne - Gabba - Saturday Night
Brisbane 14th - 5-12- 79.32%
Melbourne 11th - 6-10-1 - 94.21%
Brisbane return to the Gabba this week to take on a Melbourne side that continues to show glimpses of a bright future.
The year has been inconsistant for the Dees, but every now and then you see a sign of what will lie in store for the red and the blue over the next four to six years.
For the Lions, last week I said it was all about effort, and commitment, and on that level they passed against Geelong.
It seems strange to say that when you lose a game by ten goals, but plenty of sides have that fate fall on them at Kardinia Park.
However I just felt at least for the most part, that the Lions showed some commitment and intensity.
Harwood, Banfield, Rockliff, Redden and Cornelius are five kids who can take them places in the future.
Throw in Polkinghorne, Collier, Rich, Mitch Clark and a few other youngsters and the Lions have a platform to redemption.
They won't challenge for a flag for at least three years but they can play finals in 2011.
2010 however, we all agree is a write off, but young players need wins to help re-inforce the message going forward.
It seems ironic that Brisbane topped up to win a flag this year, yet in a season of doom and gloom it is the kids who are offering a shining light.
Plenty of kids offering a shining light at Melbourne too!, last week was the most complete performance by the Dees in a game since their last finals appearance in 2006.
To dismantle a hard nosed disciplined Sydney side is something quite special.
At times Melbourne have produced some poor form this year, and that is too be expected.
The one missing piece is consistency for this side.
Melbourne leading up to the Essendon game had been in poor form, having played well once in eight weeks. But the last three weeks have seen two wins, and a tight loss to Fremantle at Subiaco.
That performance on the road should give them some belief though as they have been notoriously poor travellers.
If they win this game, there is an outside chance they can make the finals. However I'm not convinced that would be a positive.
Essendon last year made the eight ahead of schedule and may be paying the price for that now.
The difference in expectation Melbourne would carry into 2011 if they make the eight this year would be enormous.
Regardless of what happens this year, it is all about future premiership tilts for Melbourne, and whether they finish 8th or 9th this year, that doesn't change.
The only thing that would increase is pressure.
Melbourne will fall short of the eight anyway so it doesn't matter, but that's just a theory I share.
Melbourne must rectify their starts on the road if they are to be any chance. They have led once at quarter time in their last eleven interstate games. If you drop behind the eight ball when playing on the road, you get the crowd involved and more often then not your in trouble.
A couple of key areas for Melbourne include their efficiency Inside Fifty, they are ranked second for scores once inside fifty this year, averaging scores 32% of the times they go forward.
They score heavily from turnovers which helps catch defences off guard. Melbourne are highly effective at going coast to coast, and skill wise, they cut it with the best.
Their clearance work needs some attention, particularly when they play the top sides, as you cannot rely purely on rebound goals.
Melbourne are ranked 15th for clearances this season, but improvement will come there as their kids mature over time.
Brisbane offensively have been ok, similarly to Melbourne, they spread well from contests, and play on frequently. It's an attractive style of footy, however they are poor defensively, conceding more uncontested posessions then any other side in the comp, and there ball use is very poor.
No-one turns it over as much as the Lions, and no-one is less effective going forward then them either.
Jonathan Brown has had a positive impact on that, and expect better from Fev this week who has been very quiet in the past fortnight.
However their last month at home has seen some solid form, with the exception of a Richmond loss they have beaten Collingwood, and pushed St.Kilda hard.
If they can repeat that dose, they could certainly win this game.
Brad Green is hovering around All Australian pace at present, and Patfull seems the logical match up for him.
At the other end, Rivers and Frawley will have the big jobs on Fevola and Brown, Cornelius could be the ace in the pack as well.
Sherman might get a reprieve, he has so much talent but has been poor all season. He must deliver more then he is right now.
Sylvia, Morton, Scully, Davey and co will compete with Black (should return), Rischitelli, Power, Rich etc for the Lions.
Mark Jamar should give the Dees the edge in the square, but Leunberger is continuing to develop and will provide a solid contest.
Melbourne appear to have more upside, and the Lions have hardly beaten anyone in three and a half months, but for some silly reason I cannot shake the feeling that the local boys might get up Saturday night.
Brown looms menacingly, and at this stage of their development, Melbourne remain shaky on the road.
It should be close, and Melbourne will be right in it, but in one of the most intriguing and difficult games of the round......Heads...Tails.....Lions
Brisbane by 2 points
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