Collingwood vs Carlton -MCG - Saturday
Collingwood 1st - 13-3-1 - 140.14%
Carlton 7th - 9-8 - 105.97%
The Saturday Afternoon blockbusters roll on this week with arguably the fiercest rivals of all locking horns at the MCG.
Crowds of 75,000, 81,000 and 67,000 have flocked to the home of footy in the last three weeks and expect this one to hover around the high 80's as the competitions pace setters take on their most hated foe who bounced back to form with a solid come from behind win last week.
Collingwood treated Richmond with contempt last saturday with another polished performance.
Another 400 plus disposals, another nine goal kickers. Everything is running very smoothly for the Black and White army at present.
The St.Kilda win was magical, and the Richmond win was satisfying, but nothing would please Collingwood fans more then to defeat Carlton this week, and in the process put the old dark navy blue's finals chances in jeopardy.
For Carlton, last weekend was significant. At half time against the Eagles, season 2010 was going down the toilet with Carlton 26 points down, and staring at five losses in six games.
However an 11 goal to three second half was a good launching point into the last five weeks, which contains many tough games.
To please Blues fans further, North Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide and Hawthorn all failed to record victories which helped Carlton entrench themselves in 7th position.
All things being equal they should go on and play finals. Victory on Saturday would assure it!
But that is going to be a very difficult task. Carlton generally lift against the Pies, but when the two teams met earlier this year, Collingwood got hold of them in a big way with a 53 point win.
This came a week after Carlton had demolished St.Kilda so they were in some very good form at the time.
Westcoast have played both St.Kilda and the Bulldogs into form this year, so Carlton will be hoping they have done the same for them.
After Collingwood, the Blues also face Geelong and Fremantle (away) between now and September so that's a tough lead in.
Carlton used the space well at Subiaco last week, and their swarm of midfielders found some form and developed some good link work through and around the ground. The run and carry that serves them so well when up and about was evident again.
They will need to take the game on against the Pies who set up so well defensively through the corridor.
Carlton leading into last week had scored from just 17% of forward entries in the past month, ranked last.
Collingwood's defence is simply too well organised to allow the Blues to get away with suck a lack of efficiency.
Another area of concern for Carlton has been ball use. Usually a fairly skillful side, they have dropped away. Even last week they weren't all that precise.
This could be a major problem as Collingwood are number one in the AFL at scoring from turnovers.
Most of these stats indicate a bit of Jekyl and Hyde when it comes to Carlton and this is true. They generally either smash or get smashed.
Carlton have conceded 69 points a game this year when they have won, but 112 a game when they lose which is by a long way the biggest discrepency in the competition.
Collingwood's strength remains their evenness accross the board. It is hard to look at their side and pinpoint a weakness.
They have used 33 players this season which is remarkable for a top side. They are numbers conducive with a wooden spoon side. What it does though is demonstrate how deep Collingwood's list is.
They have soldiers at the ready to come in and fill any role required and it's hard not to respect the way Mick Malthouse has moulded this list over the last few years.
Didak, Thomas, Sidebottom, Beams and co are rotating through the middle and pushing forward, Leigh Brown has been enormous, and the value of Chris Dawes continues to show.
This week Travis Cloke returns, as does Heath Shaw so there are some major selection headaches for the Pies coaching staff.
You would say Lockyer may be the one to lose out for Shaw, or perhaps young Blair who has been good, but might need a spell.
Cloke would probably replace McAffer which would be cruel for the young Magpie who has had an excellent few weeks.
Collingwood are the hardest side to tackle, they have been tackled less then anyone else, and have been caught holding the ball far less then any other side.
This shows the value of their rotations, keeping bodies fresh, but also the physical maturity of the side.
Carlton, like most sides, will need to drag Collingwood back into the corridor if they are to beat them.
This takes them out of their comfort zone, and if you apply pressure and force them into error, you can get them with quick counter attacks.
Conversely, the Pies quest to victory sits with pressuring the Carlton ball carriers and denying Judd, Murphy and Simpson in particular space to use the footy.
Their forward line is lively, but needs a good food supply without some real quality talls.
I cannot see Carlton generating enough quality ball against the wealth of Collingwood stoppage players to kick a winning score in this one.
Ben Reid should get Lachie Henderson, Toovey will take Betts and at the other end, Bower should get Cloke, and Jamison will take Dawes.
Andrew Walker might run with Didak if he plays forward, or otherwise perhaps a resting onballer in the front half.
The Blues are always a chance when they face the old foe, and that will no doubt be on the minds of all Pies fans.
But come Saturday night they will be toasting their 14th win of the season, and daring to dream once more about what September just might have on the menu.
Collingwood by 27 points
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