Richmond vs Adelaide - MCG - Sunday
Richmond 15th -5-12 - 71.40%
Adelaide 10th - 7-10 - 92.70%
This week pits two of the big improvers in the second half of the season at the MCG for another crucial clash.
Ladder positions are inconsequential right now for the Tigers, but they need to bounce back to form after a dissapointing fortnight.
For the Crows a win here keeps the glimmer of hope for September alive.
Last week they probably did their dash, but with North Melbourne and Sydney also losing, they remain in the hunt. But only just!
Richmond had won five games in six weeks before their dissapointing loss to North Melbourne, but in fairness they had been up for a while, and a let down was to be expected.
Then came last week where the Tigers met the competitions form side Collingwood and had to do it without three of their best clearance players, and two quality key backs out of the side.
It always had the potential to get ugly and that's exactly what happenened. A hefty defeat would have hurt them given the progress they have made this year, so this week it is important that they get the wheels back on the track and keep on building.
It's not so much the wins and losses that matter, but more the continued improvement of the kids, and the structuring up of a highly competitive game plan.
For most of the season, they get a big tick in both boxes, but they would want to avoid a fade out from here and a dissapointing end to the season.
The only write off game between now and the end of the year is St.Kilda so the Tigers have some opportunities to assert themselves going into the off season.
Last time these teams met, both were at 0-6. Adelaide won that day, but the reality is since then the Crows have gone 7-4, and the Tigers have gone 5-6, so it's a vastly different scenario to what it was then, and hence we should see a very good game.
Adelaide pride themselves on being really solid around the stoppages when in form, and also on their ability to structure up really well defensively.
Last week they allowed Port Adelaide far too much freedom, and gave up at least five really soft goals at important stages.
If they are slack in this area, Richmond will hurt them more then Port were able too, and Jack Riewoldt could kick a bag.
Richmond were also smashed in stoppages last week, Collingwood had 43 more contested posessions and looked far too mature for the young Tigers group.
Adelaide won't pose the same level of threat, but Richmond still need to sharpen up.
In the last three weeks the Tigers have conceded 15 marks Inside fifty per game, ranked second last in the competition, so once again this points to a drop off in physical intensity.
This happens with young groups, and with confidence could return quickly, as for the best part of two months, Richmond were one of the competitions best sides in terms of clearances, defensive pressure and contested ball.
It's a matter of re-discovering the balance.
Adelaide have won a clearance from an impressive 41% of stoppages in the past five weeks and Scott Thompson, Bernie Vince and David Mackay have been big factors in that.
The ongoing mystery of Simon Goodwin's return will be a key factor in this game. He was tremendous at his last start against Geelong and will be missed if he isn't back.
Graham Johncock will miss through suspension, Mcleod is still a fortnight away and Phil Davis is no certainty to return, so the Crows defence is missing a few of it's key running cogs.
Nathan Bock and Ben Rutten have both improved in form, although Bock is more of a stopper these days, as opposed to the offensive weapon he was as recently as 2008.
Bock should get Riewoldt as he is a bit quicker. Physically Rutten could handle Jack, but on the lead I think junior Roo would get away from him too much.
Johncock might have got either Nahas or the lively Andrew Collins so he will be missed.
At the other end, the Crows will need more from Tippett who has been poor for two weeks. Moore or McGuane will play on him.
Henderson, Sloane, Porplysia, Dangerfield and Walker are all contributing at present and that will put pressure on the Tigers backs.
Taylor Walker looms as the most dangerous of those and it wouldn't at all surprise if Hardwick sticks to his guns and backs one of his emerging kids for this role.
David Astbury is the man I'm referring too and he has been very impressive this year, expect him to do a job.
Newman should get Henderson and try to hurt him the other way, Edwards or King will take the Porpoise, and Deledio will try to zone off half back, but in all likelihood will get tagged.
Daniel Jackson's return in the middle will be significant as well, and he should tag Scott Thompson who has been excellent of late.
They have missed him greatly in recent weeks, and with Cotchin still out for three, they need the mature physical players in the middle of the ground to carry the load.
Adelaide's mind set will interest me as well. Do they still think they are alive? Or did last week knock the stuffing out of them after a hard fought recovery? It will be interesting to see which Crows side turns up.
Adelaide have dominated Richmond for the last 8 years having won 13 of the past 14 meetings between these clubs by an average of 39 points.
This is another difficult game to tip given the outs in both sides.
Adelaide last week lost several key players prior to the game and it played a large factor in their defeat.
Richmond also were quite undermanned so it might come down to who gets more players back this week.
Two burning questions...Can the Crows cover their injuries and continue to lift after a trying season?
And can the Tigers recapture the form of a fortnight ago?
I think the answer to both is yes, which makes this the hardest game of the round to tip (Despite what I said in the Brisbane v Melbourne preview).
I just somehow think the latter is more likely though, and come Sunday night, the race for the finals will be down to nine.
Richmond by 3 points
Go Tiges ;)
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