Preview Essendon vs St.Kilda Round 18

Essendon vs St.Kilda Etihad Stadium - Friday Night

Essendon 12th - 6-11 - 84.84%
St.Kilda 3rd - 12-4-1 - 119.77%

After last week's drama filled draw St.Kilda once again find themselves under the Friday Night lights at Etihad Stadium.

Essendon had a drama filled week of their own with a tense three point win over the Kangaroos in a confidence boosting win for the under seige group.

That result would have done wonders for the Essendon side who had lost their previous six matches, and given recent results against the Saints, they will enter this clash with a bit of confidence that an upset is not entirely out of the question.

David Hille is set to return as well which is a nice boost for the group, and he is far and away the most important player on their list right now.

Despite Essendon's good record, it is still an enormous task confronting them, especially given Jason Winderlich will be missing this week and doubts remain on star onballer Jobe Watson after he hurt a calf in last week's win.

Winderlich has been in outstanding form in the past two months but the Thorpy boy had surgery during the week on a hand injury, but is confident he will miss just the one game.

Watson had 38 touches last week and was inspirational in the middle for the Dons as they snapped their losing streak.

If both of these guys miss, it puts a ton of pressure on the likes of Stanton, Howlett, Colyer and co to carry the can in the middle.

People need to remember just how young this Essendon side is. Gumbleton, Hardingham, Hurley, Colyer, Melksham and Howlett all look the goods, and even Ryder, Pears and Monfries are relatively young.

Essendon over achieved a touch by making the eight last year, and playing finals on the back of ten wins flatters you.

They are paying the price for that a bit now, but the future doesn't look too bad, and they need to persevere, and that includes keeping faith in Matthew Knights.

The dons have exploited St.Kilda by isolating and releasing their quicker players and punching through the Saints full ground press with pace and precise ball movement.

Essendon tend to exploit teams on the turnover as well as anyone in the comp when playing well, and they scored nine of their fourteen goals against the Saints back in Round 8 exactly that way.

For St.Kilda, seven wins in a row was what they dished up prior to the Collingwood shocker which raised a few eyebrows, however they would have been pleased with they way they responded against Hawthorn, even if they were a touch fortunate to get the two points.

Dal Santo and Montagna both spent time off the ground injured, and Gilbert was well held but they managed to grind their way to a result which was pleasing in a way for them.

St.Kilda over recent times have been taking control of the uncontested ball, averaging 83 more uncontested posessions then their opponents over their past six matches at Etihad Stadium.

This suggests they are controlling the tempo of games and denying their opponents the opportunity to gain momentum, which tends to be the way they do things.

And they will need to control this stat to defeat Essendon, as they above evidence on the Bombers would demonstrate.

Essendon are a full throttle side who kick backwards less then anyone else, but also concede more marks inside defensive fifty then any other side.

This shows that they can be dynamic but at the same time can be opened up if they don't quite get it right.

They have conceded more points then any other side and with Tayte Pears and Henry Slattery out they remain vulnerable down back.

St.Kilda need to exploit some of Essendon's losses and take control around the clearances and get the ball moving forward quickly.

Schneider and Milne kicked six goals between them last week, and have been consistent goal scorers over the last three years against the Bombers.

Nick Riewoldt showed the best signs to date that he is returning to peak form with a good running and marking display last week, and even Kozi showed some signs that the wheel might be turning.

For the Saints, their finals campaign hinges on these blokes being up and firing, so it's important it continues.

Essendon have won the past two against St.Kilda, but the Saints are going a fair bit better then they were in Round 8.

Conversely the Bombers are probably faring about 25% worse then they were at that stage.

This game definitely fits into the danger game category, but St.Kilda should be a bit too mature around the stoppages and will get the job done.

All the indicators suggest it should be a comfortable St.Kilda victory over the plucky Bombers.

St.Kilda by 29 points.