Sydney vs Geelong - ANZ Stadium - Saturday Night
Sydney - 8th - 9-8 - 105.04%
Geelong - 2nd - 13-4 - 145.44%
Saturday night up in Sydney presents the opportunity for redemption for the Swans who are coming off arguably their worst defeat under Paul Roos.
Unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately, depending on how you look at it, they come up against the might of Geelong under lights at Homebush.
Yes, it is possibly the toughest task in footy, but it's the kind of challenge you want when under pressure.
You have the chance to throw caution to the wind and have a real crack at one of the competitions bench mark sides.
Last year, Geelong won the corresponding fixture by five points and whilst that result may not be convincing, the fact Geelong have won the past seven meetings between the two sides certainly is.
For Geelong, the next five weeks are all about slowly ramping up the intensity before the finals.
This clash, combined with games against Collingwood, the Bulldogs and a plucky Carlton side should help fine tune them for September.
For the Swans it's all about making the eight. This has been a season of great change for Sydney, and Paul Roos should be commended for what he has managed to do with this team in his last season.
He has kept them in the mix for finals, and before last week, they were considered a moral to make the eight one last time under their 2005 premiership coach.
However last weeks result has cast serious doubts. Teams don't open the swans up like that. Eight goals conceded in a quarter twice, and 22 goals in a game.
They face a difficult run home, and with pressure coming from North Melbourne and Adelaide, they must pinch at least two wins to play finals.
Last week Sydney laid just 52 tackles, their lowest tally of the season, and they will need to apply far more pressure to Geelong.
When these two sides met in Round 7, Sydney produced the second fewest tackles they have in a game all year, and conceded 64 Inside fifties, the most they have all season.
Subsequently they lost by 67 points.
If you fail to apply pressure to the Geelong ball carriers, you will get punnished severely.
Geelong give you a chance because they always take you on. You must be very good though, and if you aren't the result's are messy.
Sydney were taken out of their comfort zone last week, and need to settle themselves down when in position.
If you force Sydney to take the game on, invariably you are taking them away from their game plan which is what Melbourne did to them so well.
Geelong are the contrast to Sydney.
Rather then a slow and patient build up, Geelong constantly take the game on and share the footy.
Sydney play on less then any other side, Geelong play on more then any other side. Sydney are the second lowest posession team in the comp. Geelong are the highest.
So one team will try to bottle the game up, the other will try to make it free flowing.
Geelong's disposal efficiency has been at 76% in the last six weeks, ranked number two in the AFL.
They will enjoy the greater space at ANZ Stadium. As a rule, the Swans play the SCG far better then the larger ground accross the harbour.
They have less space to guard at the SCG and can control the tempo of the game and the tempo of their opponents to a far greater degree.
Adam Goodes has been fantastic in the last month, he will probably push through the middle. But if he goes forward, I could see Andrew Mackie taking him.
Mackie has the height and also the engine to go with him. Someone like a Taylor or a Lonergan could be lost in traffic, and someone like Ling would get beaten in the air.
O'Keefe and Mcglynn will get close attention in the front half but much is needed from Jesse White.
He was the big hope in the pre season on the back of a solid finish to last year, but his form has been up and down all year. With no Bradshaw, he has a lot of responsibility in the forward line. He's only young, but his time needs to be soon.
Roberts Thompson and Bolton remain out for the Swans, which increases pressure on Grundy, Malceski and co down back.
Sydney's defence has stood up admirably, but Mooney, Podsiadly, Hawkins, Stokes, Varcoe and Stevie J is as stiff a challenge as they will face.
Last week was an abberation for the Swans in my oppinion, but even though they are much better then that, they aren't in Geelong's class.
Paul Roos will have them up, and the effort will be much more fierce but the Cats are purring along nicely at close to full strength and will put another notch under the belt in the lead up to another exciting finals campaign.
Geelong by 30 points
No comments:
Post a Comment