St.Kilda vs Port Adelaide - Etihad Stadium - Sunday
St.Kilda - 3rd - 12-5-1 - 115.63%
Port Adelaide - 13th - 7-11 - 81.36%
Things have not gone to script over the past three weeks for the Saints who face a rejuvenated Port Adelaide side this Sunday in an important game.
St.Kilda have not won for a month and if they fail to do so this week, they could potentially fall out of the top four, a thought most would have deemed impossible for much of the season.
Port Adelaide on the other hand have found a new lease on life in recent weeks. A showdown victory followed by a gutsy come from behind win over Hawthorn has put Matthew Primus in the box seat to snare the coaching job long term.
One thing we are seeing from Port is some fight and spirit, not something we have been used to associating with them.
Generally as a rule they have been the poorest side at overhauling opposition leads. Once behind, they are usually no chance. And once challenged physically often they would just fall over.
But they have weathered some storms in the past fortnight and have come out of it with two victories. This needs to be the start of something for them going forward as they have some talented young players they can build with.
Tactically, Primus has delivered a couple of rippers since taking the job. His match ups last week were perfect. He managed to restrict Luke Hodge and Cyril Rioli, take Roughead out of the game and open the forward line up enough for Jay Schulz and Brett Ebert to cause headaches for the improving, yet vulnerable Hawks defence.
He will face similar challenges this week against a St.Kilda side that is struggling to find it's best form yet remains one of the competitions most difficult teams.
Sam Gilbert and Sam Fisher have been restricted over recent weeks, and this is really limiting St.Kilda's run.
Teams are also spreading St.Kilda's defenders and isolating them one on one where they can be shaky.
St.Kilda's defensive unit when functioning as a whole is outstanding, possibly the best the game has seen, but when the defenders are isolated they can be susceptible to quick ball movement and Essendon is a side that exploits that better then anyone has against St.Kilda lately.
Port Adelaide are capable of moving it quickly, although not to the same level, nor with the same precision as Essendon.
They also have a forward line that doesn't have the potency of Essendon although it is in good form.
Jay Schulz and Justin Westhoff are playing as well as they possibly ever have, and Ebert has a very good record against St.Kilda.
Expect Blake to get Schulz given Dawson's absence. Gwilt will probably get Ebert and Fisher should take Westhoff accross half back.
Steven Baker would have played on Robbie Grey, but expect Gram to more then likely get that gig.
St.Kilda's form is an interesting point of discussion. Yes their are some concerns, but it isn't quite as bad as people think. They were poor against Collingwood, I thought quite good, albeit lucky against Hawthorn and then they got pulled apart by an Essendon side that has had it's measure for a long time.
They have some things to sort out though. Firstly they need to get the defence working cohesively, and also up the pressure again through the middle.
St.Kilda last year were conceeding 40 Inside Fifties a game which is an all time record low. In the past month, teams have been punching through far more frequently so they need to tighten up again with their zone.
In attack, they found numerous avenues to goal when Riewoldt was out. They need to utilise these again as they have fallen into the habit of going to the superstar far too often.
A big game isn't far away for Nick, but St.Kilda have Schneider, Milne, Steven, Goddard and Montagna all as big contributors this season and Gram, Dal Santo, Peake and Gardiner can all push forward or deliver running goals if they just lift their eyes a bit when pushing into attack.
Koschitzke continues to struggle, but last week he was starved of chances after a promising display against the Hawks.
His form accross the season probably warrants omission, but St.Kilda can't win the flag if he doesn't stand up and contribute in September so they need to pick him.
They have their troubles with Port Adelaide, generally their fleet of runners in particular and smaller forward set up, but expect a turnaround in intensity for the Saints this week and if they lift in that area, they should be able to contain them and deliver a much needed four points.
Expect Carlisle to take Koschitzke, and whilst Trengove has put his hand up to play on Riewoldt, I reckon Chaplin will get first crack.
Kane Cornes will tag Dal Santo in all likelihood, and conversely Clinton Jones should get a stopping job on David Rodan who destroyed St.Kilda in Round 5.
Dean Brogan flew solo last week in the ruck last week, but he will get stiffer competition this week from Gardiner and McEvoy who have been solid.
Port Adelaide have found a bit of form, and will be in this game for a lot of the day, but St.Kilda should be stung on the back of some criticism and questions about their form and premiership chances.
After an even first half, expect St.Kilda to edge away and win the game comfortably.
St.Kilda by 25 points
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