WELCOME!

Welcome to my weekly blog.

You will find match previews and oppinion pieces throughout the football season.

Post season the focus will turn to cricket, horse racing and tennis.

You can also find my match previews at
http://www.thebigtip.com.au/

Check out the The Big Tip for all the latest in sport


Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Preview - North Melbourne vs Fremantle - Round 19

North Melbourne vs Fremantle - Etihad Stadium - Saturday

North Melbourne -9th- 8-10 - 83.25%
Fremantle -5th - 12-6 - 115.62%

Etihad Stadium will play host to a game of great significance for both the Kangaroos and Dockers on Saturday and promises to be an intriguing contest.

If Fremantle win this, the lingering hope of top four remains alive, whilst if the Kangaroos win, then all of a sudden finals could be on the radar.

Both results would be a tremendous achievement given where these two clubs were viewed at the start of the year.

Brad Scott and Mark Harvey are in many ways the two coaches of the year. Throw in Mick Malthouse and probably Damien Hardwick and I reckon you have your nominations.

Scott in his first year at the helm has produced some great results for the Kangaroos, but the one concern is the tendency for them to become totally uncompetitive when the tide turns against them.

Last week they trailled by 13 points late in the third term and ended up losing by 71. This has been a familiar story in many games this year but it must be remembered that there are quite a few players out of their side at present through injury.

What they are doing though is developing a nice midfield group, some quality key backs and a future gun centre half forward in Lachie Hansen.

It's all about future seasons for North Melbourne and a finals berth this year would be a bonus, but in saying that, they are only one game out at the moment with both Sydney and Carlton struggling.

Fremantle have lost their last two at Etihad and are also missing a host of players so North Melbourne will face a real opportunity this week.

Fremantle are a far better side then North Melbourne, but they are still vulnerable on the road, and with Tarrant, Ballantyne, Mayne, Barlow and Palmer out of the side, the dockers are missing some real quality.

Lachie Hansen is one of the real improvers this season, and Aaron Edwards has had a positive impact since his inclusion to the side.
He still has his critics Edwards, but he provides a contest, usually snags a couple of goals each week and is deceptively quick on the lead.
He isn't a star but he is clearly in their best 22.

Lindsay Thomas is the type of player who needs a few weeks to build his momentum back after a spell, so expect a better showing from him, hopefully Ben Warren can return as well, and the spread of goals from midfield options has been a positive.

Greenwood, Swallow, Harvey and co are all capable of pushing forward and hitting the scoreboard.

Fremantle have had no problems sharing the goals around either, 24 majors last week for the Dockers who are the third highest scoring team in the competition.

Defensively they can be vulnerable, and the absence of Chris Tarrant was a clear issue last week, with no solid match up for Mark Lecras.

Mcpharlin and Grover are good talls, but they can be exposed by quicker leading forwards so Thomas and Edwards are two who could give them some grief.

Hayden Ballantyne's absence will be an issue for them as well but the improved form of Hill, Fyfe, Hasleby and Michael Johnson still makes Freo very dangerous in attack.

They are statistically the best team in the comp for scoring once inside fifty so the Roos will need to apply the sort of pressure on the ball carrier that has brought the Dockers undone a couple of times in the past month if they are to keep their season alive.

The Dockers won the contested posession count for the first time in eight weeks last week to arrest an alarming slump, so that will be good for the confidence.

North Melbourne conversely are 15th for contested posessions and 14th for clearances in the competition this year.

However they are the second best hit out team in the comp, with McIntosh and Goldstein capable of making life difficult for Aaron Sandilands.

Both of these sides play on frequently, and are attacking free flowing teams who win a lot of uncontested footy.

Six of the Roos eight wins this year have come at Etihad Stadium, whilst conversely three of Fremantle's six losses have been at the venue.

Grover should play on Edwards, McPharlin will take Hansen and Roger Hayden is the key man to get third up at contests and help out where necessary.

Michael Firrito could get the most important job in the game, and run with Matthew Pavlich.
He has the body size to match him and has run through the middle so should have the tank as well.

Pav was superb last week and holds the key for Fremantle.

North Melbourne's record against top sides is poor, but with the utmost respect to Fremantle, they don't quite have the same aura as the rest of the comp's top echelon at this stage.

And whilst the Roos are undermanned, Fremantle's outs are structurally of greater significance and I think North Melbourne have enough skillful runners through the middle of the ground at the moment to cause headaches for a Fremantle side that although impressive last week, is still showing signs of fatigue at the end of a long season.

The Kangaroos will sneak home in a very good game of footy, take their biggest scalp of the year and keep the race for 8th spot alive.

North Melbourne by 9 points

1 comment:

  1. Hayden Ballantyne and Chris Tarrant are both massive losses. Ballantyne gave us hell in the pre season and earlier this year, and Tarrant is a rock. Aaron Sandilands never usually plays all that well against North Melbourne so I think it's going to be a very close game.

    Without Barlow in the middle, the midfield honours swing in Norths favour so it will be very interesting to see how it all unfolds.

    ReplyDelete