Melbourne vs Richmond - MCG - Sunday
Melbourne 10th - 7-10-1 - 95.09%
Richmond 14th - 6-12 - 73.73%
This Sunday the MCG will play host to two teams with very bright futures in a fascinating clash of particular importance in shaping the final eight.
Melbourne can take a big step towards a surprise finals appearance if they win this game. Given the faltering form of some of their rivals in the eight at present, the door is open for Melbourne.
They must win at least three games between now and the end of the year, and quite possibly all four.
Although possible, that is unlikely as they are still prone to inconsistency.
To make the eight they would probably need to finish the season on close to a seven game winning streak. As good as they are, and will be, that seems beyond them even if the games in theory seem winnable.
I doubt personally that they can stay up that long, but we have seen them play some wonderful football when their confidence is up so I'm not going to rule them out.
The main focus for Melbourne is to continue to develop kids and just take each game as it comes and build something more for the future with every passing week.
They have an undoubted wealth of good kids, and after watching the Casey Scorpions last week I can conclude there are at least seven future guns running around at that level for them, so they will have a tremendous list that must leave all fans salivating at what lies ahead.
Last week the Dees were excellent for a half, then a little dissapointing for a half. In the first they were superb with their spread from the contest and just dominated the stoppages.
Their use of the ball was a significant level above Brisbane's and they appeared destined to blow them away.
After half time though the appeared tired and sloppy, and managed to hang on due to some poor discipline and a lack of precision by the Lions.
Often teams fall victim to the humidity in Brisbane after half time, and the Lions have been notoriously strong finishers at home so it's not a major surprise but Dean Bailey would have been a touch dissapointed with the way they faded.
An area Melbourne are really developing in is defence. In the past six weeks Melbourne have conceded less scores per Inside Fifty then any other side in the competition.
Defence is seen as the lorgical starting place when building a premiership team, and the Dees are building a very good one.
James Frawley is likely to get the job on Jack Riewoldt this week in a battle of two future champions taken out of the same draft a few years back.
The Dees will be hoping to welcome back Brent Moloney as his hardness has caused problems for Richmond in the past, and he dominated their most recent clash in Round four.
For the Tigers, last week was another win of character after two very poor weeks. They were on the ropes in the second quarter and totally at Adelaide's mercy, but the crows failed to put them away.
Richmond then did what good sides do and made them pay with a dominant second half that netted ten goals to four.
They have now beaten every interstate side in the competition but are yet to claim the scalp of a victorian club.
This week presents them with a big chance provided they can maintain last week's form without lapsing like they did in the previous fortnight.
Deledio, Newman and Connors are probably the three best kicks in the team, and Damien Hardwick is setting them all up accross half back much like the Hawthorn side did when Hardwick was involved about five years ago with Hodge, Birchall, Ellis, Young, Guerra and Ladson all floating accross half back.
Richmond have sharpened up by foot as a result of putting their creators in the most important positions and they are also very strong around the stoppages hence their dramatic improvement.
In the last nine weeks, Richmond are ranked second for tackles, and third for contested posessions so they have added a real hardness to their game.
The main concern is efficiency going forward. In the past three weeks they have hit a target with just 38% of forward entries, and this emerging demon defence will bring them undone if they are that sloppy again.
It looms as a fascinating battle with two emerging midfields, one that is excellent inside with it's clearance and contest work (Richmond), and the other that appears to be emulating itself on Geelong with it's run and spread from the contest and numbers around the ball at all times (Melbourne).
Not co-incidentally Hawthorn and Geelong are the last two premiers and have revolutionised the game tactically in completely different ways.
There is a fair chance these two sides will have sustained success over a period of time so it's interesting the trends they are tending to follow.
I'm really warming to Dean Bailey. I reckon he is doing a wonderful job developing them and has developed a game plan to their strengths.
It is a hard game to split. Melbourne are a bit better at their best, but both are inconsistent as expected.
Throw in the fact Melbourne are returning from a humid night in Brisbane, whilst Richmond have one less day to prepare.
Last time these sides met, Melbourne won by 55 points. But they have 5 changes to their side since then, and conversely Richmond have 7 changes, so I wouldn't necessarily take a lot out of that.
As a rule, these sides match up well on each other but I'm tipping an upset of sorts this week. Melbourne have been up for a while, but I think Richmond can get on top in the middle with the Dees missing a couple of key clearance players.
Just a gut feeling also, but Melbourne might get a touch of reality, and by no means a cruel one, that although they are travelling along beautifully, they have a few more hurdles to cross before they become a top side and the odd lull is too be expected.
Expect one from the young Dees sunday against the plucky Tiges given they are coming off a tough road trip on a hard ground on a warm night.
The Gabba trip has taken plenty out of several sides this year, and expect it to happen again.
Richmond by 5 points
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