Sydney vs Hawthorn - Saturday - SCG
Sydney - 8th - 9-9 - 101.22%
Hawthorn - 6th - 9-8-1 - 106.71%
Sydney and Hawthorn will lock horns on Saturday afternoon in a traditional eight point game.
The loser faces a battle to remain in the eight, the winner would appear a good chance to host a final in the first week.
For the Hawks it is a case of deja vu from last week. They once again face a bogey side on a traditional bogey ground.
Hawthorn have only produced one victory from their previous eight trips to the Sydney Cricket Ground but did knock the Swans off in a tight game earlier this season, admittetdly in Melbourne.
They enter this game on the back of a dissapointing and potentially costly loss to Port Adelaide at Aami Stadium last week.
With that loss went any chance of top four, but they need to make sure they bounce back this week and keep themselves above the likes of Melbourne and the Kangaroos coming from below.
Cyril Rioli will miss the next two weeks on the back of a suspension for an uncharacteristic snap just before three quarter time.
His loss will hurt them as he has added genuine pace to a midfield that whilst classy and tough, did lack a bit of leg speed.
Shaun Burgoyne has contributed to that as well but Rioli has been a huge factor in their revival.
Against Sydney, a side that can be susceptible to line breaking runners they will feel his absence.
On the positive for Hawthorn, they have a large host of in form runners with the likes of Birchall, Mitchell, Ellis, Young, Bateman, Burgoyne, Lewis and Hodge all playing good consistent football.
Hodge was well held last week, and will be keen to atone on Saturday, so expect a big game from the brownlow contender.
Franklin appears in really good touch, but needs to keep his head. He has given away 7 free kicks and 5 fifty metre penalties in the last two weeks and that is the kind of thing that can cost a team games.
His movement, marking and presence are as prominent as ever, he just needs to be a touch smarter.
Roughead had a quiet one last week after a solid couple of weeks, and Osborne and Young are providing plenty of goals in general play.
Their defence last week had it's worst collective game in a while with Gilham, Stratton and Murphy all lowering their colours but this Sydney forward line has struggled to hit the scoreboard over recent weeks and whilst tricky shouldn't stretch them too much.
Simon Taylor got through his VFL game well last week but I'd expect the club to persist with the Renouf/Skipper combination at least for the time being as it offers them far more versatility around the ground.
An important area of focus is contested ball. Hawthorn have averaged 15 more contested posessions then their opponents over the last six weeks and this is also an area the swans thrive on.
Sydney concede the fewest stoppage first posessions of any club, but have slipped badly in the past fortnight.
In the last two weeks Sydney have also averaged 56 tackles a game which is about 9 below their season average.
They need to rediscover their trademark pressure skills otherwise the season will dissapear before they know it.
Footskills have also fallen away for the Swans. They conceeded 9 goals from turnovers against the slick Cats, and 10 against the Dees the week before.
Hawthorn are another team with very good foot skills and they will slaughter Sydney if they falter again.
Adam Goodes remains a shining light for the Swans, and Mcglynn will be keen to impress against his old side.
The nuggety onballer/forward has been in very impressive form this season and will loom as a key man to restrict for the Hawks.
Jesse White struggled again last week as the Swans continue to miss Daniel Bradshaw but he remains the best option and they have to persist and hope he turns the corner.
Much like Hawthorn, Sydney generate a lot of run off half back through Nick Malceski, Tadhg Kennelly and Marty Mattner.
All three of those have been quite lately so the order of the day will be to free them up and release them into space.
Ted Richards and Heath Grundy appear set to get the big jobs on Franklin and Roughead, and they are really feeling the absence of Lewis Roberts Thompson and Craig Bolton.
They need to drop a few numbers back as they are both very dangerous match ups for the Swans.
Mattner should get Osborne, although Osborne might be given a negatting role on Malceski as he has done similar in recent weeks to good affect.
Gibson or Stratton will more then likely take Goodes. Whilst Gilham will take White and I suspect Guerra might get Ryan O'Keefe.
Moore might tag Hodge, or perhaps Mitchell in midfield but looking accross the board, this Swans side is a bit younger in 2010, and I think lacks the spread of options accross the board to match it with the competitions better sides.
Hawthorn despite last week's loss are still a top side and I think Franklin, Roughead, Hodge, Lewis, Mitchell, Young, Osborne etc offer too much talent spread for Sydney to contain.
If they can tie up Hawthorn in the clearances and start to control the tempo they can bottle them up on the smaller ground which they do play a lot better then ANZ Stadium.
However I don't think Sydney are going well enough to do it at this stage and are in grave danger of missing the finals.
Hawthorn on the otherhand will be safe come Saturday Night.
Hawthorn by 21 points
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